Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
42 Fig. 1: Soybean production trends in 3 major producing countries.
Source:
Faostat, 2013. The 2011 yield of soybean in USA was 8 percent less than in 2010 due lower planting and yield loss by
weather changes . Competition of land by other crops such as maize also account for the decrease in harvest yield [6]. Indonesian imports of soybean is amongst the top 10 in the world, and occupies about 2 percent of
the total soybean import [2]. China still remains the largest importer of soybeans on world market. It was forcasted that from 2010-2020 U.S soybean production will remain near flat due to limited hectares available
for cultivation, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to increase soybean exports to satisfy world demand [4].
2.2 Soybean supply and utilization in Indonesia
The soybean supply in Indonesia is derived from both domesic production and imports. Over half of the total soybean demand in indonesia is met from imports. In 20112012 the country‘s domestic production
was less by 30,000 MT compared to the 20102011 production at 650 000 MT. The import of soybean in period of 20112012 was 1.922MMT which marked an increase of 1.26 percent than the previous period.
Amost 88 percent of soybean supply in indonesia are used for making tempeh and tofu [7]. The major imports of soybean in indonesia is from USA about 90 percent while remainding fraction come from
Argentina, Malaysia and other producing countries [8].The estimated per capita consumption annually for tempeh and tofu is 8.5 and 7.8 kgcapyear respectively [1]. The soybean consumption increased from 8.13
in 1998 to 8.94kgcapyear in 2004 while local production of soybean had been declining since 2009 from 97,000 tonnes to 85,000 tonnes in 2012 [5].
2.3 Climate change effect on soybean production
Among other factors the main contributor of climate change is due to anthropogenic emission of green house gases GHG especially carbondioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. The agriculture sector is
vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere [9]. Higher temperatures affect plant health, increase prevalence of pests and reduce water available in plants
through rapid rate of evapotranspiration. Varying rainfall patterns decrease water availability and have negative consequences for both rainfed and irrigated farming systems while increased level of carbondioxide
may improve crop yield in some regions [10] The growth and productivity of crops can be either positively or negatively affected by climate change. In elevated CO
2
concentration free aircarbon experimented study FACE showed 15-25 increase in yield of C
3
crops wheat, rice, soybean and 5-10 in C4 crops maize, sorghum, sugarcane. High level of CO
2
also increase the water use efficience of the C3 and C4 plants. While other studies demonstrated that increase level of CO
2
showed less favorable crop response [11]. Crop modeling study under increasing atmospheric temperature of 1-3
o
C were demonstrated to have less beneficial changes on crop production in temperate regions and negative yield impact of crops in tropical
regions under increase atmospheric level and varrying rainfalls [12]. A non linear projection of soybean under temperature range from 29-30
o
C showed yield increase with rising temperature, however temperaure over 30
o
C reduce soybean yield [13]. Changes in temperature during summer period was shown to affect soybean production and variation in rainfall pattern during planting and
phase of development also affect soybean yield in Southern Brazil [14]. Water stress during early reproduction and seed filling stage was found to accelerate senescence leading to early maturity and low
20 40
60 80
100
2000 2002
2004 2006
2008 2010
2012
T o
n n
e s
m il
li o
n s
Soybean Production
Argentina Brazil
USA
Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
43 yield of soybean up to 10-23 percent [15]. Climate change was predicted to affect yield in the 3 major
exporting countries of soybean. The impact is presented in the Table 1, below under different climate change scenarios [16].
Table 1. Impact of climate change on soybean yield under different scenarios
Location of study site Impact change in yield in
Climate change scenario Argentina
-3 to -8 GISS, GFDL, UKMO with CO
2
Brazil -61 to -6
GISS, GFDL, UKMO with CO
2
USA -40 to +15
GISS, GFDL, UKMO with CO
2
Source. Adams et al, 1998
The data in Table 1, showed decline in yield for soybean in Argentina and Brazil while for USA the change in yield will vary across the region. This data presented important implications for importing
countries because according to forcast, Brazil, USA and Argentina will still lead in exporting of soybean up to 2020.
3. Discussion
