Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
23 agricultural functions. The average of riceharvested areain Central Java is1.6 million ha year during the
years 1990-2010. Agriculture potention in Central Java province scattered throughout the district. This area also among provinces with the title of national food buffer. The main results of agriculture in Central Java
province is the rice and horticultural crops. Triyanto, 2006 .
From the description, it appears that El Nino and La Nina were also taking a role in affecting the agricultural sector in the province of Central Java. El Nino and La Nina as a form of climate anomalies will
affect agricultural production. Because water is an absolute necessity for plant growth, then the condition of water shortage at El Nino orexcessive water at La Nina during the course will affect plant growth. Plant
growth which is not optimal of course will affect the rice offers downhill and of course this will have contributed to the price received by farmers. Because the prices received by farmers decreased, it can be said
that the welfare of farmers measured from farmers exchange rate also decreased because their income is reduced. Therefore, in this study, it willbe estimated the influence of El Nino and La Nina on the supply
function and the exchange rate function of rice farmers.
2. Literature Review
The phenomenon of drought and flood is a natural disaster that occurred almost every year in parts of Indonesia. These disasters are usually large and give highly detrimental impact on agriculture. One scientist
who has been researching the impact is Irawan 2006 which states at the national level, food production opportunities rice and pulses were lost due to El Nino on average by 3.06 percent, or about 1.79 million tons
for each El Nino event. Decline in food production was greatest in maize by 11.9 percent and lower in cassava plants only decreased by 1.28 percent, and rice by 2.43 percent. Soybean that was sensitive to water
shortages, experienced substantial decline in production about 5.10 percent. The opposite occurred in La Nina events. At the national level, the climate anomalies stimulatedthe increase production of food grains
and pulses at 1.084 percent for every La Nina occurrence. The highest increase happened in production of corn, whichwas equal to 3.92 percent. This suggests that corn plants are sensitive to climatic anomaly, either
El Nino or La Nina, compared to other crops. Increased production is not very high because of La Nina occurs in plants
Further research conducted by Utami 2008 on the impact of El Nino and La Nina on the supply and the welfare of rice farmers and corn on the island of Java. The results showed that during the period 1987-
2006, El Nino events have resulted a decrease rice yield by 4.15 percent, while La Nina increased rice yield by 1.45 percent. With the analysis of supply function, note that the El Nino does not significantly influence
rice deals, but La Nina significantly influence rice deals. This means that rice production at the farm level is affected by the occurrence of climate anomalies.
3. Method
This study usesthe basicresearchdescriptiveanalysis, itis a methodforexaminingthe status ofhuman groups, an object, a set of conditions, a systemof thoughtora class ofeventsin the present. Data collection
wasperformedby the method ofrecording thesecondary datacontainedinthe Central Statistics Agency, Department of AgricultureCentralJava province, andBOMAustralia from1990 to 2010. Forricesupply
functionvariablesareregressedusingquarterlydata since it is in accordance with riceproduction dataas the dependent variablewhich is onlyavailablepergrowing season four months, so the dataof independent
variablesthatare availablein themonthly datawere averagedperfour months.
To estimate the influence of the El Nino and La Nina on rice supply function was analyzed using the method of ARMA Autoregressive Moving Average. The main reason for the use of ARMA models is the
movement of economic variables in the supply function were obtained from the time series data that are difficult to explain by economic theories Widarjono, 2007. In the ARMA model, there is no specific
assumptions about the historical data of the time series, but uses an iterative method to determine the best model. Supply function is estimated as follows:
logQt = logb + b
1
logX
1
+ b
2
logX
2
+ b
3
logX
3
+ b
4
logX
4
+ b
5
logX
5
+b
6
logX
6
+ b
7
logX
7
+ b
8
AR3 + b
9
MA5 + b
10
D
1
+ b
11
D
2
+ e
Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
24 Description:
logQt : log rice supply tons b
: constants b
1
-b
11
: coefficient logX
1
: log of dry grain harvest prices USD I logX
2
: log of corn prices USD I logX
3
: log of soybean prices USD I logX
4
: log of cassava prices Rp I logX
5
: log of urea fertilizer prices USD kg logX
6
: log of TSP fertilizer prices USD kg logX
7
: log of average wage laborer USD day person D
1
: dummy variable El Nino events 1 = occurred El Nino
0 = not occur El Nino D
2
: dummy variable La Nina events 1 = occured La Nina
0 = not occur La Nina AR 3 : autoregressive 3
MA5 : moving average e
: factor disorders
4. Result and Discussion
