3. Lag optimal KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

Lanjutan Lampiran 7

b. 3. Lag optimal

Lag Æ 2 Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 032010 Time: 02:42 Sample adjusted: 1988Q4 2008Q4 Included observations: 81 after adjustments Standard errors in t-statistics in [ ] DEMPSHARE DPDBCAP DPDBCAP2 INV TB R-squared 0.831776 0.177789 0.176176 0.753709 0.680546 Adj. R-squared 0.807744 0.060331 0.058486 0.718525 0.634909 Sum sq. resids 0.809023 0.143085 109.0969 357.2658 372.7377 S.E. equation 0.107506 0.045211 1.248410 2.259158 2.307558 F-statistic 34.61110 1.513632 1.496956 21.42166 14.91236 Log likelihood 71.62424 141.7859 -126.9944 -175.0373 -176.7543 Akaike AIC -1.496895 -3.229281 3.407269 4.593513 4.635908 Schwarz SC -1.171723 -2.904109 3.732441 4.918685 4.961080 Mean dependent 0.046527 0.040577 1.127285 24.94346 3.762775 S.D. dependent 0.245183 0.046640 1.286601 4.258203 3.819023 Determinant resid covariance dof adj. 5.42E-06 Determinant resid covariance 2.61E-06 Log likelihood -54.01983 Akaike information criterion 2.691848 Schwarz criterion 4.317708 Keterangan: sebagian baris sengaja tidak ditampilkan untuk efisiensi halaman Lanjutan Lampiran 7 Lag Æ 4 Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 032010 Time: 02:53 Sample adjusted: 1989Q2 2008Q4 Included observations: 79 after adjustments Standard errors in t-statistics in [ ] DEMPSHARE DPDBCAP DPDBCAP2 INV TB R-squared 0.871949 0.434182 0.431651 0.838087 0.742252 Adj. R-squared 0.827794 0.239072 0.235668 0.782255 0.653374 Sum sq. resids 0.571377 0.089618 69.88458 233.2377 298.7311 S.E. equation 0.099254 0.039308 1.097682 2.005328 2.269479 F-statistic 19.74724 2.225319 2.202496 15.01083 8.351311 Log likelihood 82.60543 155.7787 -107.2533 -154.8592 -164.6349 Akaike AIC -1.559631 -3.412119 3.246920 4.452133 4.699619 Schwarz SC -0.929778 -2.782266 3.876773 5.081986 5.329472 Mean dependent 0.036163 0.040671 1.132903 24.89767 3.809970 S.D. dependent 0.239179 0.045062 1.255555 4.297451 3.854744 Determinant resid covariance dof adj. 9.77E-07 Determinant resid covariance 2.08E-07 Log likelihood 47.19621 Akaike information criterion 1.463387 Schwarz criterion 4.612653 Keterangan: sebagian baris sengaja tidak ditampilkan untuk efisiensi halaman Lag optimal adalah 4 berdasarkan hasil pembandingan Adj. R-squared. Lanjutan Lampiran 7 c. , ,

c. 1. Panjang lag maksimum