POVERTY ALLEVIATION AND POVERTY REDUCTION PROGRAMMES: CHANGING STRATEGIES

THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 32 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 33 70 The SMERU Research Institute 2006 ‘Pelaksanaan program Bantuan Operasional Sekolah BOS’, The SMERU Research Institute Newsletter No. 19, July-September, Jakarta 71 Ibid.; Suharyo, W. 2005 ‘A rapid appraisal of the PKPS-BBM Education Sector School Operational Assistance BOS’, the SMERU Research Institute: Jakarta 72 The SMERU Research Institute 2006 Pelaksanaan program Bantuan Operasional Sekolah BOS 73 Suharyo, W. 2005 A rapid appraisal of the PKPS-BBM Education Sector School Operational Assistance BOS 74 Ministry of National Education Departemen Pendidikan Nasional 2005 Buku Petunjuk Pelaksanaan BOS 75 Ibid. 76 Sparrow, R., Suryahadi, A. and Widyanti, W. 2010 Social health insurance for the poor: Targeting and impact of Indonesia’s Askeskin program , The International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam and The SMERU Research Institute: Jakarta 77 Ibid. 78 Ibid. 79 Ibid. 80 Ibid. the BKM programme was allocated to approximately 20 per cent of students at the primary, junior and senior secondary school levels. Despite this allocation, research has shown that the percentage of poor households whose children were receiving scholarships was smaller, that is, less than 15 per cent. 70 The BOS programme Following the large reduction in the fuel subsidy in March and October 2005, commencing in the 200506 academic year, the government made fundamental changes to the PKPS- BBM Education Sector Program concept and design for primary and junior high schools. This BKM programme for primary and junior secondary schools was replaced by the School Operational Assistance programme BOS, Bantuan Operasional Sekolah. In contrast to the BKM programme, which provided money directly to poor students who were selected by schools in accordance with the allocations they had received, BOS funds were provided to schools to be managed in accordance with the requirements that had been determined by the central government. The size of the fund for each school was determined on the basis of the number of students in accordance with the requirements that had been determined by the central government. 71 BOS was available for all primary and junior high schools, including Sekolah Dasar Primary School, MI Madrasah Ibtidaiya, Islamic-based primary school, Sekolah Dasar Luar Biasa Primary School for Children With Special Needs, Sekolah Menengah Pertama Junior Secondary School, MT Madrasah Tsanawiyah , Islamic-based Junior High School, and Sekolah Menegah Pertama Luar Biasa Junior Secondary School for Children with Special Needs. Both public and private schools running the compulsory education programme at primary and junior high schools or equivalent were entitled to receive BOS. Schools that considered themselves as well-off were, however, allowed to opt out of the BOS programme. 72 The introduction of the BOS programme was expected to reduce the cost of education borne by students’ parents. Under the programme, poor students should receive free education. Although the objectives of the programme as stated in the Operational Guidelines for BOS 2005 did not specify free education for poor students, this has been emphasised in the implementation and regulation of the programme. The programme regulations require the elimination of school tuition for schools that, prior to receiving BOS, had smaller school tuition fees schedules than the BOS funding. Schools that, prior to receiving BOS, had school tuition fees schedules greater than the BOS funding were permitted to collect school tuition fees, but had to exempt poor students from tuition fees and reduce the tuition for other students. In addition to the regulations on school tuition fees, the regulations also allow schools to use the funds to provide transportation allowances as special assistance for poor students deemed to be in need. 73 The objective of the BOS programme “The BOS Program aims to provide assistance to schools in order that they can exempt students from their school tuition. This exemption, however, will not result in decreased quality of the education services provided for the community…The BOS Program is aimed at releasing poor students from education cost and reducing the costs for other students, so they obtain a better quality basic education until the completion of nine years of basic education in order to achieve the goal of the nine year compulsory basic education programme.” 74 Because recipient schools used most BOS funds for operational activities that supported teaching and learning activities, the BOS funds were of benefit to all students, including those from both well-off families and poor families. Most schools also decided to give the same treatment to all students in the school charges that were levied on students. 75 Health insurance Indonesia introduced the first phase of its plan to achieve universal health coverage through a mandatory public health insurance scheme in 2004. Asuransi Kesehatan Masyarakat Miskin, or Askeskin, was targeted to the poor. The key objective of Askeskin was to improve access to healthcare and provide financial protection against health shocks and illnesses for poor households that lack access to formal insurance. 76 It initially targeted the poorest 60 million people. 77 In 2008, Askeskin evolved into Jaminan Kesehatan Masyarakat, or Jamkesmas , a Ministry of Health ‘insurance’ programme that now covers over 76.4 million poor Indonesians. 78 The Askeskin programme reimbursed providers in two ways: 1 a payment provided to community health centres puskesmas based on the number of registered poor; and 2 fee-for-service payments covering third-class hospital beds reimbursed through P.T. Askes a state-owned insurer. All public hospitals were automatically qualified as providers, while Askes contracted with private mostly non-profit hospitals individually. Changes to Askeskin implemented in 2005 resulted in differences in two major areas. First, rather than being a purely government-run programme, it provided a block grant to P.T. Askes, which then targeted the poor with Askeskin cards and reimbursed hospital claims. Second, the beneficiary cards in Askeskin were individually targeted rather than the household cards used in previous programmes. By 2008 Askeskin had expanded to cover over 70 million people. 79 Then in 2008, Askeskin evolved into Jamkesmas. Many district governments have followed the lead of Jamkesmas and established district- based insurance schemes typically called Jamkesda that cover the near-poor or those not covered under Jamkesmas. These schemes take different forms. Some Jamkesda are designed as extensions of Jamkesmas, with the goal of covering an additional population of near-poor, on top of those covered by Jamkesmas; other schemes focus on specific services, such as in Yogyakarta, where maternal and child health services for 104,500 children and pregnant women are covered under a district-led scheme. 80 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 34 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 35 81 World Bank 2008 Conditional cash transfer in Indonesia: Program Keluarga Harapan and PNPM Generasi baseline survey report, World Bank: Jakarta 82 ILO 2008 Social security in Indonesia: Advancing the development agenda, ILO: Jakarta 83 World Bank 2008 Conditional cash transfer in Indonesia There are several important differences between the prior Askeskin programme and the Jamkesmas programme. Jamkesmas is managed by the Ministry of Health and P.T. Askes is no longer involved, except in managing the enrolment of members and the distribution of Jamkesmas cards. In addition, district health ofices now directly manage contracting and claims processing. And Jamkesmas now contracts with many private hospitals whereas Askeskin utilised mainly public providers. A report from the SMERU Research Institute finds that the programme is “indeed targeted on the poor and those most vulnerable to catastrophic out-of-pocket health payments. Askesin has improved access to healthcare in that it increases utilization of public outpatient care. We do not find evidence of substitution effects from private to public care.” As of January 2010, the Jamkesmas programme is being implemented throughout the country and will serve as one of the key building blocks of the government’s proposed universal coverage agenda. Unconditional cash transfers Unconditional cash transfers BLT, Bantuan Langsung Tunai, as a form of compensation to poor households for domestic fuel price increases, started to be made by the GoI in August 2005. The programme was implemented against a background of high price inflation accentuated by major fuel price increases, which were increasing the financial stress on low income households. The programme ended in September 2006. The amount of funds allocated per family was approximately US120 in four instalments over the course of one year. 81 Conditional cash transfers In 2007, the unconditional cash transfer programme was replaced by a household conditional cash transfer programme Program Keluarga Harapan ; the Family Hope Program. Conditional cash transfers under this programme have two aims: short- term poverty alleviation and investment in long-term human capital. 82 In July 2007 the government launched pilot programmes in seven provinces West Java, East Java, West Sumatera, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, East Nusa Tenggara, and Jakarta. The target groups to receive conditional cash transfers have been poor households with pregnant women and children up to 15 years of age. Eligible households must be classified as very poor rumah tangga sangat miskin, with children aged 1-6 years with lactating mothers. These households receive cash for a maximum period of six years. Unlike the previous programme, the receipt of the cash benefits is payable as long as certain conditions regarding health and education are met. 83 There are 12 health and education conditions for the continuation of conditional cash transfers: Health indicators: 1 Four prenatal care visits for pregnant women; 2 Taking iron tablets during pregnancy; 3 Delivery assisted by a trained professional; 4 Two postnatal care visits; 5 Complete childhood immunizations; 6 Ensuring monthly weight increases for infants; 7 Monthly weighing for children under three and biannually for under-ives; 8 Vitamin A twice a year for under-fives 84 Government of Indonesia, Tim Penyusun Pedoman Umum PKH, Lintas Kementrian dan Lembaga 2007 Pedoman Umum Program Keluarga Harapan PKH, Tim Penyusun Pedoman Umum PKH: Jakarta 85 Ibid. 86 World Bank 2008 Conditional cash transfer in Indonesia 87 Ibid. Education indicators: 9 Primary school enrolment of all children 6-12 years old; 10 Minimum attendance rate of 85 per cent for all primary school aged children; 11 Junior secondary school enrolment of all children 13-15 years old; 12 Minimum attendance rate of 85 per cent for all junior secondary school aged children. 84 If a mother is pregnant andor has children aged 0-6 years, she will receive IDR 1,000,000 per year or IDR 250,000 per quarter regardless of the number of children aged under five that she has. If a mother has two primary school aged children 6-12 years and one secondary school aged child 13-14 years and these children are attending school, she will receive IDR 1,800,000 per year or IDR 450,000 per quarter. A mother with children aged 0-6 years and three primary school aged children will receive IDR 2,200,000 per year. The government has also launched Community Conditional Cash Transfer, namely PNPM Generasi Sehat dan Cerdas also known as PNPM Generasi. PNPM Generasi builds on the project infrastructure and capacities developed through the experiences of the Kecamatan Development Program PPK. PNPM Generasi is implemented as part of the government’s new flagship programme, PNPM Mandiri. 85 PNPM Generasi differs from household conditional cash transfers in that cash transfers are allotted to communities and not to households. The condition for participating in community conditional cash transfers is community commitment to increasing health and education standards. PNPM Generasi places strong emphasis on lagging health and education outcomes. In order to get funding, communities have to submit a proposal for certain activities and investments, such as: - Transportation costs for midwives and nurses to provide outreach services - Increase services of integrated health service units posyandu, pos pelayanan terpadu or village health posts pustu, pukesmas pembantu to ensure timely delivery of immunization, vitamin A and weighing - Procurement of scale and height measurement tools - Build infrastructure for health posts - Contracting private providers or NGOs to provide health services in villages - Contracting nurses and midwives to deliver health services in villages - Increase access to education and health services through building or improving the quality of roads and bridges. 86 The size of block grants provided to communities in conditional cash transfers in sub- districts are pre-determined by the population size of sub-districts and poverty levels. The average grant amount during the 2007 programme was US8,400 equivalent to IDR 76,440,000, using exchange rate US1 = IDR 9,100 per village. All participating villages also receive technical assistance in the form of facilitators and training. 87 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 36 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 37 However, despite the improvements in poverty levels overall, urbanrural disparities remain. Based on the poverty head-count index, Figure 2.2.4 shows that while poverty levels are falling in both rural and urban areas, they remain significantly higher in rural areas. Figure 2.2.4: Percentage of poor population based on head-count Index by area, Indonesia 1999-2008 Source: Welfare Indicators, processed by BPS - Statistics Indonesia, based on National Socio-Economic Surveys 1999-2008 It is also evident that the severity of poverty is higher in rural areas, and that rural areas were more likely to be affected by both the impacts of the financial crisis for which interventions seem to have reduced poverty levels in urban but not rural areas and the impacts of increasing rice prices in 2006. The poverty severity index increased by 0.29 points in urban areas between 2005 and 2006, but by 0.45 points in rural areas. The trends in the poverty severity index indicate that only in 2009 did the situation in rural areas return to the level prior to the increase in the price of rice. The poverty severity index is basically a measure of the gap between the poverty line and the average income of poor people. Figure 2.2.5: Poverty severity index by area, Indonesia 1999-2009 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia, Statistical Year-Book of Indonesia 2009 Table 2.2.2 below also demonstrates, using 2007 National Socio-Economic Survey data, that much of Indonesia’s poverty is concentrated in rural areas and the features of households living in poverty. The table shows that most poor households remain in rural areas although the share of urban poverty is on the rise. Poor households tend to be concentrated in the agricultural sector and poverty is highly associated with working in the informal sector. Poor people tend to have less education and poor households are larger in terms of household members. Poor people in 1.60 1.40 1.20 0.80 1.00 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Urban 1.39 1.39 1.36 0.85 0.93 0.90 0.89 1.22 1.09 0.95 0.82 Rural Year Index 0.98 0.51 0.45 0.71 0.74 0.58 0.60 0.77 0.57 0.56 0.52 25 30 20 15 10 5 1999 2002 2003 2004 Urban 2005 2006 2007 2008 19.41 26.03 14.46 21. 1 13.57 20.23 12.13 20.11 11.68 19.98 13.47 21.81 12.52 20.37 11.65 18.93 Rural Year Per cent rural areas are less likely to have access to health services in which more poor pregnant women are less likely to be helped by skilled health professionals and after birth many babies in poor households are not breastfed. Table 2.2.2: Number of poor people by social indicators, 2007 Source: National Socio Economic Survey 2007 unweighted data for national averages, poverty line calculated by BPS - Statistics Indonesia based on minimum expenditure for consumption of 2,100 calories per day. Percentages calculated by the Gajah Mada University. Disparities are also evident in poverty levels when provinces are compared. Many of the provinces in eastern Indonesia, such as Papua, Maluku, East and West Nusa Tenggara, have the highest poverty levels in the country, some ten times higher than in Jakarta, the capital. Figure 2.2.6: Percentage of population below the poverty line by province, Indonesia 2009 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia, Statistical Year-Book of Indonesia, based on National Socio-Economic Survey, 2009 Poverty is devastating for children and often results in lower performance at school, early leaving dropouts and lower standards of living. The case of Budi outlined in Box 2.2.2 below demonstrates how poverty, together with the chance for independence and earnings, can result in children working from an early age in hazardous conditions. Of every 100 Indonesians 64 live in a rural areas 42 do no have access to safe water 57 do not have access to decent sanitation 32 have households with more than 5 members 31 have less than primary education 10 are illiterate 49 work in agriculture 66 work in informal sector 23 work as a unpaid workers in the household 42 live in villages without secondary high school 61 live in villages without access to telephone Of those aged below five, 32 births were delivered by unskilled midwife Of those aged below five, 5 are not breastfed But for every 100 POOR Indonesians 72 live in a rural areas 52 do no have access to safe water 80 do not have access to decent sanitation 54 have households with more than 5 members 41 have less than primary education 17 are illiterate 69 work in agriculture 76 work in informal sector 31 work as unpaid workers in the household 55 live in villages without secondary high school 72 live in villages without access to telephone Of those aged below five, 49 births were delivered by unskilled midwife Of those aged below five, 3 are not breastfed 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 Per cent Papua W est Papua W est Sumatra W est Kalimantan Jambi Riau Riau Islands East kalimantan Banten Bangka Belitung Central Kalimantan Bali W est Java Maluku Gorontal o East Nusa T enggar a W est Nusa T enggar a Nangro Aceh Lampung Central Sulawesi Southeast Sulawesi Bengkul u Central Java D.I. Y ogyakarta East Java South Sumatra South Kalimantan D.K.I Jakarta North Sumatra North Maluku North Sulawesi South Sulawesi W est Sulawesi Indonesi a 37.53 23.31 21.80 17.72 14.15 3.62 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 38 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 39 Box 2.2.2: Budi the scavenger 88 Budi is 15 years old. He is from a poor family who scavenge through rubbish for their livelihood in a poor rural village in Central Java. When other children are busy with school, Budi spends his time picking through rubbish. He lives with his parents and six siblings in a room 5 by 6 meters with a bamboo wall, which is 30 meters from the river and frequently floods in the wet season. Budi is actually a smart boy. In his first and second years of primary school he was ranked irst. However, the school was closed due to low enrolment, so he had to attend a school farther away and was often absent. He thought his parents wouldn’t notice and he preferred to hang out at the riverside with his friend, Andi. They just used to sit, have a chat, smoke and sometimes go swimming until school was over. Budi said, “I couldn’t escape from the previous school, because it was close to home.” Consequently, his school performance declined dramatically. His teachers noticed his absence and that he never did his homework, so it was reported to his parents, for which he was “not only scolded but also beaten.” Because of his absenteeism, Budi has had to repeat the class. Feeling embarrassed, he finally decided to drop out of school. Since his father and siblings only ever went to primary school and some did not manage completion primary school, he too was reluctant to prioritise school. Instead he preferred to help his dad, and has been scavenging through rubbish since Year 5 of primary school. After he dropped out, he started scavenging full-time on his own. He gets the shortest route to the rubbish site as he is the youngest scavenger in his family. Their employer provided bicycles to reach their work areas easily. Budi was excited the first time he earned his own money, so he encouraged his peers to work like him, and taught them how. Budi manages his money to cover his daily expenses such as cigarettes and billiards. Budi’s parents use their wages to pay for food and school for his younger siblings. Budi seldom gives his money to his parents. Budi has been smoking since before he was in kindergarten. When he was younger, his grandpa who is a smoker would roll cigarettes for his small crying grandson who was upset that his mother was busy with his younger sibling. When he was in kindergarten, he stopped smoking because his teacher warned him to quit. The teacher said that if he didn’t quit his smoking, he would not be able to study at the school. But when he quit school he took up smoking again, using much of his earnings for this. Budi usually gives his sister, Putri, pocket money of IDR 10,000 US1 per week. He rarely saves his money, and has now started buying alcohol. An NGO offered to support him to go back to school, but he doesn’t want to - he is reluctant and embarrassed to go to school since his peers would be much younger than him. Source: Based on repeat interviews with Budi, rural Central Java, 2009 88 Name changed

2.3 INEQUALITIES AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

As the discussion above on regional disparities in poverty levels has demonstrated, economic growth has not always been accompanied with equity for the poor in terms of wealth and human development. Several summary measures capture inequalities and development over time. Wealth gaps among individuals is measured by the Gini coefficient, with a value of 1 indicating high inequality between individuals. The HDI captures multiple aspects of welfare by combining the indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income into a composite index. The GDI shows the comparative development of women. Figure 2.3.1 highlights that income inequalities have been rising over the past decade, in contrast to data presented earlier in this section that highlighted improvements in economic growth. Figure 2.3.2 demonstrates that wealth gaps are greater in some provinces than in others. Figure 2.3.1: Gini coefficent over time, Indonesia 1993-2007 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia, Welfare Indicators; Income and Consumption Indicators, based on National Socio-Economic Surveys 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2007 Figure 2.3.2: Gini coefficient by province, Indonesia 2007 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia, based on the National Socio-Economic Surveys 2002, 2005 and 2007 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2007 Year Index 0.300 0.310 0.320 0.330 0.340 0.350 0.360 0.370 0.335 0.356 0.329 0.363 0.364 0.318 0.050 0.000 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 Index Papua W est Papua W est Sumatra W est Kalimantan Jambi Riau Riau Islands East kalimantan Banten Bangka Belitung Central Kalimantan Bali W est Java Maluku Gorontal o East Nusa T enggar a W est Nusa T enggar a Nangro Aceh Darussalam Lampung Central Sulawesi Southeast Sulawesi Bengkul u Central Java D.I. Y ogyakarta East Java South Sumatra South Kalimantan D.K.I Jakarta North Sumatra North Maluku North Sulawesi South Sulawesi W est Sulawesi Indonesi a 0.412 0.364 0.353 0.326 0.268 0.259 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 40 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 41 The impact of the economic crisis saw the HDI fall by 3.4 points between 1996 and 1999. It has been rising slowly ever since see Figure 2.3.3. Yet, as Figure 2.3.4 demonstrates, rates are far lower than the national average in some provinces, mainly in eastern Indonesia, including Papua, and East and West Nusa Tenggara, and rates in the national capital, Jakarta, are far above the average for Indonesia; 77.03 compared to 71.17, in 2009. Table 2.3.1 shows that there have been improvements over time in the provinces, with the selection from our cases showing that this has been occurring even in the worst performing province, Papua, where in 2008 the index had almost reached the same level as the lowest national average score, which was recorded in 1999 i.e., 64.00. Figure 2.3.3: Human development index HDI over time, Indonesia 1996-2008 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia, 1996-2008 Figure 2.3.4: Human development index HDI by province, Indonesia 2008 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia, 2008 1996 1999 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Index 67.70 64.30 65.80 68.70 69.57 70.10 70.59 71.17 72.00 70.00 68.00 66.00 64.00 62.00 60.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Papua W est Papua W est Sumatra W est Kalimantan Jambi Riau Riau Islands East kalimantan Banten Bangka Belitung Central Kalimantan Bali W est Java Maluku Gorontal o East Nusa T enggar a W est Nusa T enggar a Aceh NAD Lampung Central Sulawesi Southeast Sulawesi Bengkul u Central Java D.I. Y ogyakarta East Java South Sumatra South Kalimantan D.K.I Jakarta North Sumatra North Maluku North Sulawesi South Sulawesi W est Sulawesi Indonesi a 64.00 66.15 70.76 71.17 71.60 77.03 Table 2.3.1: Trends in the human development index HDI over time in selected provinces and national average, Indonesia 1996-2008 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia, 1996-2008 Along with human development, there have been some positive improvements in gender development as measured by the GDI and GEM, as demonstrated by Figure 2.3.5. Significant progress was made through Presidential Decree No. 92000 on Gender Mainstreaming, which instructed all ministers, heads of state institutions, commanders of the armed forces, governors, district heads and mayors, to mainstream gender considerations in all government processes from planning, to implementation, monitoring and evaluation, in all development policies, programmes, and government action. Presidential Regulation No. 72005 on the National Medium-Term Development Plan 2004-2009 89 also stipulates that improving the quality of life and the welfare and protection of children is imperative to establishing justice and democracy in Indonesia and should be implemented through the national medium-term development plans and government work plans RKP. In the 2006 government work plan, gender mainstreaming was to be adopted by all government sectors to assure that all development policies, programmes and actions are responsive to gender issues: “All of the implementations of national development shall always use the principle of mainstreaming of good governance, sustainable development, community participation, decentralisation, and gender.” 90 Figure 2.3.5: Human development index HDI and gender development index GDI over time, Indonesia 2000-2007 Source: UNDP, 2000-2007 UN Human Development Reports 2002-2009 Area Indonesia Aceh Central Java East Nusa Tenggara NTT Papua 1996 67.70 69.40 67.00 60.90 60.20 1999 64.30 65.30 64.60 60.40 58.80 2002 65.80 66.00 66.30 60.30 60.10 2004 68.70 68.70 68.90 62.70 60.90 2005 69.57 69.05 69.78 63.59 62.08 2006 70.10 69.41 70.25 64.83 62.75 2007 70.59 70.35 70.92 65.36 63.41 2008 71.17 70.76 71.60 66.15 64.00 89 Presidential Regulation No. 72005 on the National Medium-Term Development Plan 2004-2009 90 Presidential Regulation No. 392005 on the 2006 Government Work Plan, p20 Index 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year HDI GDI 0.678 0.684 0.682 0.692 0.697 0.711 0.719 0.726 0.734 0.677 0.685 0.691 0.704 0.712 0.719 0.726 0.750 0.740 0.730 0.720 0.710 0.700 0.690 0.680 0.670 0.660 0.650 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 42 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 43 Figure 2.3.5 shows that the GDI has been improving alongside the HDI. However, the 2010 survey of the World Economic Forum on the global gender gap index found that Indonesia is still ranked 87 out of 134 countries. It is in a better position than Malaysia rank 98 and Cambodia 97, but performing worse than other Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN such as the Philippines 9, Thailand 57, Vietnam 72 and Singapore 56. 91 In 2009, Indonesia was ranked at a level similar to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Yemen, Benin, Chad and Turkey.

2.4 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

One challenge for improving welfare and distributing resources is the challenge of population growth. An intensive family planning programme began in Indonesia in 1971. In the 30 years prior to the period covered in this SITAN 1970-2000 Indonesia underwent a major transition from high to low fertility. Through a combination of delayed marriage, and the increased use of contraception to prolong the time between births and to reduce the number of births, population growth has slowed. The total fertility rate was 2.3 in 2000 and has remained at that level. 92 The annual growth rate on average between 2000 and 2009 was 1.35 per cent. 93 Figure 2.4.1 Total fertility rate TFR over time, Indonesia 1991-2007 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia and Macro International, Indonesia Demographic and Health Surveys IDHS 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002-2003 and 2007 It is evident from Figure 2.4.2 below, that there is higher fertility rates in many of the provinces in eastern Indonesia which were also areas that were poorer, as discussed previously compared with many of the provinces on Java and Sumatera islands. The 2007 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey IDHS data demonstrates that fertility rates are also higher in rural areas, and amongst the poor. 94 91 Hausmann, R., Tyson, L. D., Zahidi, S. 2010 The global gender gap report 2010, World Economic Forum: Geneva 92 The TFR based on IDHS Data 2002-2003 and 2007 is constant at 2.6. However, the characteristics of the sample of these two surveys is not comparable with other survey samples National Socio-Economic Survey, the Intercensal Survey and the 2000 Census. Unmarried women are underrepresented in the IDHS sample. After Hull and Mosley 2008 adjusted the denominator of the formula to make it comparable with the characteristics of the other surveys and census, the resulting TFR is similar to that from the Census 2000, which is 2.3. See Hull, T. H. and Mosley, H. 2009 Revitalization of family planning in Indonesia. BKKBN Family Planning Coordinating Board: Jakarta. Hartanto, W. and Hull, T. H. 2009 Fertility estimates of Indonesia for provinces: Adjusting under-recording of women in 2002-3 and 2007 IDHS , Australian National University: Canberra 93 BPS - Statistics Indonesia 2009 Statistical Year-Book of Indonesia 2009, BPS - Statistics Indonesia: Jakarta 94 BPS - Statistics Indonesia and Macro International 2008 Indonesia Demographic Health Survey IDHS 2007, BPS and Macro International: Calverton, Maryland 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.70 2.80 3.00 IDHS 1991 IDHS 1994 IDHS Revised by Hull Mosley IDHS 1997 IDHS 2007 IDHS 2002-2003 Figure 2.4.2 Total fertility rate TFR by province, Indonesia 2007 Source: IDHS 2007 Figure 2.4.3: Indonesia population distribution, 2009 Source: BAPPENAS, BPS - Statistics Indonesia, UNFPA Indonesia 2008 ‘Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia Indonesia Population Projection 2005-2025’ However, Indonesia has an opportunity to take advantage of what is known as the ‘demographic bonus’. Figure 2.4.3 shows that the population distribution of Indonesia in 2009 was skewed towards younger age groups. If fertility rates remain similar in the future, by 2025 the population will reach approximately 275 million people, and the working population will increase from 64.6 per cent to 68.8 per cent of the total. 95 This means that as more younger people enter the labour market, this will decrease the dependency ratio of the older population on the younger population. This creates a window of opportunity to promote development and social services before segments of the working population become dependent as they age. The window of opportunity opens up between 2020-2040, with the lowest levels of dependency predicted to fall between 2020 and 2030, when the dependency ratio will fall below 45 per 100 head of population of working age. Following this, the dependency ratio will increase as the population ages. 96 If 95 Adioetomo, S. M. S. 30 April 2005 ‘Bonus demografi: Menjelaskan hubungan antara pertumbuhan penduduk dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi’, Speech given at the Inauguration Ceremony for Professors in Demography Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia, p66 96 Ibid., pp65-66 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.2 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.3 1.8 Papua W est Papua W est Sumatra W est Kalimantan Jambi Riau Riau Islands East kalimantan Banten Bangka Belitung Central Kalimantan Bali W est Java Maluku Gorontal o East Nusa T enggar a W est Nusa T enggar a Nanggroe Aceh D Lampung Central Sulawesi Southeast Sulawesi Bengkul u Central Java D.I. Y ogyakarta East Java South Sumatra South Kalimantan D.K.I Jakarta North Sumatra North Maluku North Sulawesi South Sulawesi W est Sulawesi Indonesi a 15.0 70 - 74 60 - 64 50 - 54 40 - 44 30 - 34 20 - 24 10 - 14 0 - 4 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Male Female