SUMMARY CONCLUSION IMPROVING EDUCATION IN THE SHADOW OF CONFLICT AND

THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 306 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 307 Figure 4.5.1: Central Java map Source: Center for Population and Policy Studies, Gajah Mada University, 2010 Despite a relatively young population on average, Central Java’s overall population growth has been decreasing over the past decade, especially over the last five years. 474 The decrease in population growth is likely linked to the decreasing fertility rate in Central Java since 1987. The total fertility rate TFR currently stands at 2.0, despite an increase from 2.1-2.3 during the period from 2002-2007 according to data from the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys IDHS 2002-2003 and 2007. 475 Central Java has a lower TFR than the national average, which is important given the current large population. 476 However, Central Java’s population is relatively young on average, with the largest segments of the population being those in the 20-24 years, 15-19 years, and 0-9 years age groups see Figure 4.5.2. However, the number of children under age ive has been decreasing in Central Java since 2005, likely due to recent decreases in fertility rates. 477 This may have some impact on the distribution of students, as a declining number of pupils will be attending primary schools in the next four years. Furthermore, there are more females compared to males, as discussed later in this subsection in relation to gender equity and development measures. Figure 4.5.2: Projected population pyramid, Central Java 2009 Source: BPS - Statistics Indonesia and UNFPA, based on projections from the 2005 Intercensal Survey BAPPENAS Although Central Java is predominantly rural, more than 42 per cent of its population live in urban environments. 478 Continuously intensifying urbanisation poses certain challenges to urban infrastructure to keep pace with population growth. 479 Furthermore, persisting rural poverty can drive flight from rural to urban areas, including migration of children, who may face a range of problems such as inadequate access to basic health and education services, sanitation and housing, especially if they end up living on the streets.

4.5.3 POVERTY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND GENDER EQUITY

Overall poverty levels have declined in Central Java over the past decade. By 2002, poverty had fallen to 23 per cent of the total population from 28.5 per cent of the total population at the height of the financial crisis in 1999. The rate has continued to decrease in recent years, and by 2008 the population living below the poverty line in Central Java was 19.23 per cent of total population, according to data from the National Socio-Economic Survey 2009. However, poverty levels in the province have remained above the national average see Figure 4.5.3. Considerable disparities in poverty levels exist between urban and rural areas. Figure 4.5.4 illustrates that despite overall reduced poverty levels in recent years, a higher percentage of people in rural areas live below the poverty line compared with urban areas. While this gap has been decreasing recently, it is still larger than it was in 1999. In 1999, the difference between the proportion of the population below the poverty line differed by only 1 per cent between rural and urban areas. Soon after that, in 2001, the gap had widened to 18 per cent, but by 2009 the gap had narrowed to 4.5 per cent see Figure 4.5.4. 474 Projection based on BPS - Statistics Indonesia 2009 Report based on the Intercensal Survey SUPAS 2005, BPS: Jakarta 475 BPS - Statistics Indonesia and Macro International 2008 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey IDHS 2007 and IDHS 2002-2003, BPS and Macro International: Calverton, Maryland 476 Projection based on BPS - Statistics Indonesia 2009 Report based on the Intercensal Survey SUPAS 2005 477 Ibid. 478 Projection based on Intercensal survey 2005, processed by BPS - Statistics Indonesia, Jakarta, 2009 479 Zahnd, M. 2006 Traditional urban quarters in Semarang and Yogyakarta Indonesia; Potential for innovative use of urban design for new quarters in Indonesian cities based on theoretical and traditional aspects, available at: www.urban-is.comdeutchunsere- publikationenfarchartikelposterly.pdf Last accessed 20 June 2010 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Male Female THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 308 THE SITUATION OF CHILDREN AND WOMEN IN INDONESIA 2000-2010 309 Figure 4.5.3: Percentage of households living below the national poverty line, Indonesia and Central Java 1999-2009 Source: National Socio-Economic Surveys 1999-2009 Figure 4.5.4: Percentage of population below the poverty line by area, Central Java 1999-2009 Source: National Socio-Economic Surveys 1999-2009 In line with the reduction in aggregate poverty levels in the province, Central Java’s human development index HDI has been continuously improving since 2000. This is illustrated in Figure 4.5.5, which shows the improvements of Central Java’s HDI, gender development index GDI, and gender empowerment measure GEM from the year 1999 to 2007. As shown, by 2008, Central Java’s HDI had increased to 70.92 from 68.9 in 2004. 480 According to the Central Java Provincial Medium-Term Development Plan RPJMD, Central Java’s HDI now ranks fourteenth among the nation’s 31 provinces and 2 special regions. 481 Although all districts of Central Java have improved their HDI, there is still wide inter-district variation See annex 4.5. While some districts have improved even above the national average, others still rank below the national average. A comparison of urban and rural districts in Central Java shows disparities in the improvement of the HDI, similar to the uneven reduction in poverty in rural areas, such that some rural districts still sit well below the national and provincial averages. One example of above-average improvement has occurred in urban Surakarta, the district in which the Child-Friendly City is being piloted as discussed in the second part of this subsection. In 2007, Surakarta’s HDI ranked sixteenth among all 471 districts in Indonesia, and was the only district from Central Java to be ranked among the nation’s 20 districts with the highest HDI. 482 An example of below-average improvement is Brebes district. While in 2007 the HDI of the district of Surakarta was 76, far above the provincial average, the HDI in Brebes was only 64.3, far below the provincial and national averages, ranking last among all districts in the province. Figure 4.5.5: Human development index HDI, gender development index GDI, and gender empowerment measure GEM, Central Java 1999-2007 Source: BPS - BAPPENAS - UNDP, Indonesia Human Development Report, 2004 data 1999 and 2002, BPS - The Ministry of Women’s Empowerment, Gender Based Human Development Report Overall, wealth distribution in Central Java has become more equal across population groups over the past years, as indicated by a small decrease in the Gini Index from 0.28 in 2005 to 0.25 in 2007. 483 However, the distribution of wealth within districts in Central Java is still highly unequal, especially in rural areas see annex 4.5. Furthermore, the wide disparity across districts is also reflected in the Williamson Index, 484 which stood at 0.75 for Central Java in 2005 and 0.74 in 2007 485 , indicating a wide disparity in the gross regional domestic product GRDP across districts municipalities. Indeed, some cities, such as Semarang and Surakarta, have a relatively high GRDP, whereas some districts, such as Brebes and Wonosobo, show a lower GRDP. 486 The combination of a large proportion of children and women in the population in Central Java as discussed in section 4.5.2 on demographics is important in terms of human, social and economic development measures and policy approaches. Despite overall improving poverty trends, gender-based inequality in human development persists in Central Java in terms of income, human rights and political freedom. Many women still face unequal income opportunities and employment conditions. This is evidenced by the 2007 GEM and GDI for Central Java, which stood at 64.3 and 59.7, respectively. 487 Furthermore, although the 2006 National Socio-Economic Survey data showed an almost equal number of men and women entering the employment market, on average women’s wages were lower than men’s despite overall increases 480 BPS - Statistics Indonesia and the Ministry of Women’s Empowerment 2007 Gender-based human development report, BPS - Statistics Indonesia: Jakarta 481 Central Java Provincial Government 2009 Central Java Medium-Term Development Plan RPJMD 2008-2013, Central Java Provincial Government: Semarang, p13 30.00 25.00 Per cent 20.00 15.00 10.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Indonesia C entral Java 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 28.46 23.43 18.95 18.40 18.20 17.42 16.66 15.97 17.75 16.58 15.42 14.15 21.16 22.07 23.06 21.78 21.11 20.43 19.23 17.72 482 Ibid., p14; BPS - Statistics Indonesia and the Ministry of Women’s Empowerment 2007 Gender-based human development report 483 BPS - Statistics Indonesia relevant years data from the National Socio-Economic Survey, BPS: Jakarta 484 The Williamson Index indicates inequality across regions, while the Gini Index indicates inequality across population groups 485 Central Java Provincial Government 2009 Central Java Medium-Term Development Plan RPJMD 2008-2013, p15 486 Ibid. 487 BPS - Statistics Indonesia and the Ministry of Women’s Empowerment 2007 Gender-based human development report 64.6 66.3 68.9 69.8 70.3 70.9 57.4 58.7 59.8 60.8 63.7 64.3 51.2 51.0 56.5 56.9 59.3 59.7 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 1999 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 Index HDI GDI GEM 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1999 27. 8 28. 8 20. 2 21. 8 1999 20. 5 25. 19. 7 23. 2 17. 5 23. 6 17. 2 23. 5 16. 3 22. 15. 4 19. 9 11. 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 30.00 35.00 40.00 Urban Rural Per cent