242
11. Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Industri :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PDRBI
Dependent Variable PDRBI Label pdrb industri
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 3.0501E8 50834222 184.61 .0001
Error 132 36347803 275362.1 Corrected Total 138 3.4245E8
Root MSE 524.74960 R-Square 0.89352 Dependent Mean 1222.65094 Adj R-Sq 0.88868
Coeff Var 42.91900 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -560.571 149.6745 -3.75 0.0003 Intercept PC 1 0.031609 0.064024 0.49 0.6223 physical cap
PTKI 1 0.005168 0.001390 3.72 0.0003 penyerpn TK ind PRODVI 1 19.06145 4.764099 4.00 0.0001 produktifitas
indust DKK 1 340.0411 154.7211 2.20 0.0297 dummy kabkt
TREND 1 -9.85407 40.65012 -0.24 0.8088 trend LPDRBI 1 0.777349 0.043448 17.89 .0001 lag PDRB industri
Durbin-Watson 1.5482 Number of Observations 139
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.221364
12. Persamaan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Jasa :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PDRBS
Dependent Variable PDRBS Label pdrb jasa
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 3.1964E8 53273912 176.39 .0001
Error 132 39866944 302022.3 Corrected Total 138 3.6606E8
Root MSE 549.56556 R-Square 0.88911 Dependent Mean 1547.53633 Adj R-Sq 0.88407
Coeff Var 35.51229 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -2042.55 185.9712 -10.98 .0001 Intercept PC 1 0.053560 0.063355 0.85 0.3994 physical cap
PTKS 1 0.011173 0.000820 13.63 .0001 penyerpn TK jasa PRODVS 1 148.0960 15.95787 9.28 .0001 produktifitas jasa
DKK 1 383.7160 140.7006 2.73 0.0073 dummy kabkt TREND 1 -12.2558 42.33104 -0.29 0.7726 trend
LPDRBS 1 0.187192 0.054347 3.44 0.0008 lag PDRB jasa Durbin-Watson 1.073248
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.449562
243 13. Persamaan Penerimaan Pajak :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TAX
Dependent Variable TAX Label Pajak
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 73841.22 14768.24 119.02 .0001
Error 133 16502.60 124.0797 Corrected Total 138 88588.33
Root MSE 11.13911 R-Square 0.81734 Dependent Mean 36.88273 Adj R-Sq 0.81047
Coeff Var 30.20141 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -16.5423 3.827846 -4.32 .0001 Intercept PDRB 1 0.003432 0.000528 6.50 .0001 pdrb total
TPP 1 0.126596 0.018006 7.03 .0001 tot peng-pem DKK 1 18.90083 2.903148 6.51 .0001 dummy kabkt
TREND 1 -1.13018 0.949821 -1.19 0.2362 trend LTAX 1 0.183564 0.056189 3.27 0.0014 lag Pajak
Durbin-Watson 1.198416 Number of Observations 139
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.390829
14. Persamaan Penerimaan Non Pajak :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model NTAX
Dependent Variable NTAX Label non tax
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 8 702011.5 87751.44 157.88 .0001
Error 130 72255.70 555.8131 Corrected Total 138 780999.5
Root MSE 23.57569 R-Square 0.90668 Dependent Mean 249.53856 Adj R-Sq 0.90094
Coeff Var 9.44771 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 9.897973 10.77167 0.92 0.3599 Intercept PDRB 1 0.002620 0.001181 2.22 0.0282 pdrb total
TPP 1 0.319956 0.070168 4.56 .0001 tot peng-pem POV 1 0.000086 0.000037 2.28 0.0240 kemiskinan
PTK 1 0.000096 0.000032 2.98 0.0034 penyerpn TK total INV 1 0.243917 0.095165 2.56 0.0115 investasi
DKK 1 -8.48980 8.045048 -1.06 0.2933 dummy kabkt TREND 1 22.04653 2.920445 7.55 .0001 trend
LNTAX 1 0.046662 0.038354 1.22 0.2260 lag non tax Durbin-Watson 1.821352
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.08576
244 15. Persamaan Pengeluaran Kesehatan Pemerintah :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PKESP
Dependent Variable PKESP Label peng keshtn-pem
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 4396.574 1099.143 29.91 .0001
Error 134 4924.129 36.74723 Corrected Total 138 9337.635
Root MSE 6.06195 R-Square 0.47170 Dependent Mean 15.20388 Adj R-Sq 0.45593
Coeff Var 39.87105 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -2.13215 2.325551 -0.92 0.3609 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.013169 0.006698 1.97 0.0514 Penerimaan pem
DKK 1 -3.59902 1.482707 -2.43 0.0165 dummy kabkt TREND 1 2.455420 0.520714 4.72 .0001 trend
LPKESP 1 0.527735 0.067005 7.88 .0001 lag peng kesh pem Durbin-Watson 1.905963
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.039602
16. Persamaan Pengeluaran Pendidikan Pemerintah :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PPENP
Dependent Variable PPENP Label peng penddkn-pem
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 19759.42 4939.854 13.05 .0001
Error 134 50734.66 378.6169 Corrected Total 138 70552.81
Root MSE 19.45808 R-Square 0.28030 Dependent Mean 34.99683 Adj R-Sq 0.25882
Coeff Var 55.59954 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -1.70493 6.631012 -0.26 0.7975 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.073201 0.022258 3.29 0.0013 Penerimaan pem
DKK 1 -8.32885 4.646785 -1.79 0.0753 dummy kabkt TREND 1 5.235215 1.677718 3.12 0.0022 trend
LPPENP 1 0.114982 0.078742 1.46 0.1466 lag peng pendk pem Durbin-Watson 1.99438
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.00869
245 17. Persamaan Pengeluaran Infrastruktur :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PINF
Dependent Variable PINF Label peng inflastruktur
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 9835.782 1967.156 48.82 .0001
Error 133 5359.405 40.29628 Corrected Total 138 15383.08
Root MSE 6.34794 R-Square 0.64730 Dependent Mean 17.63574 Adj R-Sq 0.63404
Coeff Var 35.99471 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -13.1625 2.470245 -5.33 .0001 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.027902 0.008251 3.38 0.0009 Penerimaan pem
POV 1 0.000013 7.289E-6 1.73 0.0851 kemiskinan DKK 1 -0.75595 1.872005 -0.40 0.6870 dummy kabkt
TREND 1 6.082265 0.583079 10.43 .0001 trend LPINF 1 0.296091 0.054893 5.39 .0001 lag peng inflast
Durbin-Watson 2.230294 Number of Observations 139
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.11522
18. Persamaan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Sektor Lainnya :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PPL
Dependent Variable PPL Label pengl pem lainnya
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 569200.3 142300.1 87.63 .0001
Error 134 217594.0 1623.836 Corrected Total 138 806161.4
Root MSE 40.29685 R-Square 0.72344 Dependent Mean 199.76008 Adj R-Sq 0.71519
Coeff Var 20.17262 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -1.75674 14.38553 -0.12 0.9030 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.768487 0.054789 14.03 .0001 Penerimaan pem
DKK 1 21.15572 9.587445 2.21 0.0290 dummy kabkt TREND 1 -13.7556 3.782105 -3.64 0.0004 trend
LPPL 1 0.061628 0.056698 1.09 0.2790 lag pengl pem sek lainnya
Durbin-Watson 2.036963 Number of Observations 139
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.03151
246 19. Persamaan Pengeluaran Kesehatan Rumahtangga :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PKESRT
Dependent Variable PKESRT Label peng keshtn-RT
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 35420.02 5903.337 47.75 .0001
Error 132 16318.28 123.6233 Corrected Total 138 52191.65
Root MSE 11.11860 R-Square 0.68460 Dependent Mean 34.54655 Adj R-Sq 0.67026
Coeff Var 32.18441 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -132.782 52.77556 -2.52 0.0131 Intercept YD 1 0.000468 0.000415 1.13 0.2613 disposable inc
HEAL 1 1.698318 0.749132 2.27 0.0250 angka hrpn hdp POP 1 0.000040 4.024E-6 9.85 .0001 juml penduduk
DKK 1 11.86787 3.312301 3.58 0.0005 dummy kabkt TREND 1 1.530041 0.864414 1.77 0.0790 trend
LPKESRT 1 0.135973 0.057154 2.38 0.0188 lag peng keshtn rt Durbin-Watson 1.78401
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.096104
20. Persamaan Pengeluaran Pendidikan Rumahtangga :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PPENRT
Dependent Variable PPENRT Label peng penddkn-RT
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 147798.5 24633.08 96.67 .0001
Error 132 33636.51 254.8220 Corrected Total 138 184040.0
Root MSE 15.96315 R-Square 0.81461 Dependent Mean 51.69597 Adj R-Sq 0.80618
Coeff Var 30.87890 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -77.6607 19.40864 -4.00 0.0001 Intercept YD 1 0.003194 0.000706 4.53 .0001 disposable inc
EDU 1 8.364937 2.843320 2.94 0.0039 rata2 lm seklh POP 1 0.000052 5.829E-6 8.84 .0001 juml penduduk
DKK 1 17.98831 7.661816 2.35 0.0204 dummy kabkt TREND 1 -1.48397 1.261438 -1.18 0.2415 trend
LPPENRT 1 0.240405 0.054285 4.43 .0001 lag peng pendk rt
Durbin-Watson 1.198126 Number of Observations 139
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.394094
247 21. Persamaan Pengeluaran Rumahtangga Lainnya :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRTL
Dependent Variable PRTL Label PRTL
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 15534886 2589148 271.06 .0001
Error 132 1260851 9551.905 Corrected Total 138 16816952
Root MSE 97.73385 R-Square 0.92493 Dependent Mean 726.38309 Adj R-Sq 0.92152
Coeff Var 13.45486 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -304.832 116.0489 -2.63 0.0096 Intercept YD 1 0.022042 0.004075 5.41 .0001 disposable inc
EDU 1 51.08753 17.02348 3.00 0.0032 rata2 lm seklh POP 1 0.000783 0.000039 20.25 .0001 juml penduduk
DKK 1 70.81410 46.88673 1.51 0.1334 dummy kabkt TREND 1 -68.2324 7.720889 -8.84 .0001 trend
LPRTL 1 0.042347 0.033518 1.26 0.2087 lag pengl rt lainnya RUN
Durbin-Watson 0.929226 Number of Observations 139
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.526464
22. Persamaan Investasi :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INV
Dependent Variable INV Label investasi
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 142634.9 23772.48 33.03 .0001
Error 132 95012.28 719.7900 Corrected Total 138 217087.2
Root MSE 26.82890 R-Square 0.60020 Dependent Mean 80.99555 Adj R-Sq 0.58202
Coeff Var 33.12392 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 462.7675 95.59770 4.84 .0001 Intercept SB 1 -20.0868 4.054823 -4.95 .0001 Suku bunga
PDRB 1 0.003893 0.001028 3.79 0.0002 pdrb total PINF 1 2.061947 0.523041 3.94 0.0001 peng inflastruktur
UMK 1 -160.960 191.9311 -0.84 0.4032 upah min kabkt DKK 1 -30.6566 7.049489 -4.35 .0001 dummy kabkt
TREND 1 -25.1545 3.570963 -7.04 .0001 trend Durbin-Watson 1.545224
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.218035
248 23. Persamaan Ketimpangan Pendapatan :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model GINI
Dependent Variable GINI Label indeks Gini
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 0.047323 0.007887 9.32 .0001
Error 132 0.111664 0.000846 Corrected Total 138 0.158052
Root MSE 0.02909 R-Square 0.29765 Dependent Mean 0.24158 Adj R-Sq 0.26573
Coeff Var 12.03937 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 0.137737 0.020102 6.85 .0001 Intercept YCAP 1 -1.37819 1.093193 -1.26 0.2096 PDRD perkapita
UNEMP 1 1.517E-7 1.043E-7 1.45 0.1481 pengangguran INF 1 0.002196 0.000581 3.78 0.0002 inflasi
DKK 1 0.029412 0.007905 3.72 0.0003 dummy kabkt TREND 1 -0.00222 0.002365 -0.94 0.3499 trend
LGINI 1 0.349224 0.077356 4.51 .0001 lag indeks Gini Durbin-Watson 2.061441
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.0405
24. Persamaan Kemiskinan :
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model POV
Dependent Variable POV Label kemiskinan
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 8 1.66E12 2.075E11 128.50 .0001
Error 130 2.099E11 1.615E9 Corrected Total 138 1.843E12
Root MSE 40186.7012 R-Square 0.88773 Dependent Mean 194678.692 Adj R-Sq 0.88083
Coeff Var 20.64258 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -25106.1 71535.17 -0.35 0.7262 Intercept PCAP 1 -3.433E8 51578880 -6.66 .0001 pengeluaran perkap
GINI 1 342415.2 188494.9 1.82 0.0716 indeks Gini PL 1 2499804 395045.9 6.33 .0001 grs kemiskinan
POP 1 0.173885 0.013346 13.03 .0001 juml penduduk STKA 1 877.5121 332.9593 2.64 0.0094 STKA
DKK 1 109214.9 24481.20 4.46 .0001 dummy kabkt TREND 1 -19791.3 4495.179 -4.40 .0001 trend
LPOV 1 0.324639 0.045158 7.19 .0001 lag kemiskinan Durbin-Watson 1.37782
Number of Observations 139 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.309473
249
Lampiran 4. Hasil Validasi Model Investasi SDM, Menggunakan SASETS Versi 9.2, Prosedur: SIMNLIN, Metode: Newton
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 33
Endogenous 33 Parameters 155
Equations 33 Number of Statements 59
Program Lag Length 1 The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= HC
OUT= HASIL Solution Summary
Variables Solved 33 Simulation Lag Length 1
Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8
Maximum CC 3.85E-13 Maximum Iterations 1
Total Iterations 139 Average Iterations 1
Observations Processed Read 140
Lagged 1 Solved 139
First 2 Last 140
250
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
HEAL 139 139 69.7144 1.6416 70.5444 2.5815 HEAL EDU 139 139 6.9840 1.2159 7.2999 1.7686 EDU
PRODVA 139 139 7.0765 7.4282 8.0219 5.1821 PRODVA PRODVI 139 139 12.6304 12.8788 14.4462 11.3272 PRODVI
PRODVS 139 139 9.2029 5.4682 10.6801 5.8371 PRODVS PC 139 139 1139.6 1414.1 1074.7 419.2 PC
PTKA 139 139 169892 106679 170549 86856.9 PTKA PTKI 139 139 107718 60331.6 113944 39926.6 PTKI
PTKS 139 139 165074 79954.8 168286 74405.3 PTKS PTK 139 139 442684 177163 452779 168447 PTK
PDRBA 139 139 832.6 559.9 849.8 411.4 PDRBA PDRBI 139 139 1222.7 1575.3 1542.8 1350.9 PDRBI
PDRBS 139 139 1547.5 1628.7 1855.4 1622.2 PDRBS PDRB 139 139 3602.8 3087.5 4248.1 2775.2 PDRB
YCAP 139 139 0.00412 0.00265 0.00616 0.00744 YD 139 139 3589.9 3070.7 4210.1 2755.1
TAX 139 139 36.8827 25.3366 37.9852 22.9401 TAX NTAX 139 139 249.5 75.2291 239.9 100.3 NTAX
PENPEM 139 139 286.4 90.7550 277.9 115.4 PENPEM PKESP 139 139 15.2039 8.2258 14.8365 5.3035 PKESP
PPENP 139 139 34.9968 22.6109 34.2587 13.9263 PPENP PINF 139 139 17.6357 10.5580 15.6863 12.7777 PINF
PPL 139 139 199.8 76.4313 192.8 85.6364 PPL TPP 139 139 267.6 91.4106 257.5 112.9 TPP
PKESRT 139 139 34.5465 19.4474 36.9204 15.6861 PKESRT PPENRT 139 139 51.6960 36.5188 58.3064 34.1449 PPENRT
PRTL 139 139 726.4 349.1 757.9 317.9 PRTL TPR 139 139 812.6 394.7 853.1 360.0
INV 139 139 80.9955 39.6623 78.3885 44.6039 INV PCAP 139 139 0.000910 0.000222 0.00109 0.000769 PCAP
UNEMP 139 139 42757.4 27301.7 32662.5 63907.8 UNEMP GINI 139 139 0.2416 0.0338 0.2351 0.0232 GINI
POV 139 139 194679 115567 102503 376581 POV
251
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Statistics of fit
Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square
HEAL 139 0.8300 1.2283 1.9122 2.7404 2.8664 4.1005 -2.071 EDU 139 0.3159 4.1874 0.6905 9.3999 0.9924 12.3260 0.3290
PRODVA 139 0.9455 75.0252 3.8356 92.0923 7.5068 301.3 -.0287 PRODVI 139 1.8158 36.5139 5.4191 49.6306 9.6402 68.4245 0.4356
PRODVS 139 1.4772 23.5317 2.6774 33.5643 3.9151 51.8398 0.4837 PC 139 -64.9177 50.7991 720.0 83.5727 1415.6 117.4 -.0094
PTKA 139 657.3 29.7007 51064.5 196.8 63903.9 743.8 0.6386 PTKI 139 6225.5 41.8511 34962.5 58.0139 48891.9 128.0 0.3385
PTKS 139 3212.1 6.6580 25672.5 18.6221 32048.4 25.2721 0.8382 PTK 139 10094.9 8.8375 40289.3 18.0037 56231.5 50.7660 0.8985
PDRBA 139 17.1992 64.3287 296.1 132.2 453.4 398.1 0.3394 PDRBI 139 320.2 124.1 632.0 141.5 894.8 294.7 0.6750
PDRBS 139 307.9 30.3427 706.8 60.8828 925.8 84.6884 0.6746 PDRB 139 645.3 41.0162 1238.0 53.1794 1670.3 104.3 0.7052
YCAP 139 0.00204 40.2267 0.00257 52.3900 0.00668 104.0 -5.423 YD 139 620.2 40.9099 1206.4 53.0301 1641.1 105.9 0.7123
TAX 139 1.1025 10.5624 12.2648 38.9781 17.0220 56.3908 0.5454 NTAX 139 -9.6536 -6.8678 36.0172 18.5310 59.2787 39.1445 0.3746
PENPEM 139 -8.5511 -5.1384 42.1982 18.3981 67.7111 36.9632 0.4393 PKESP 139 -0.3674 16.4769 5.7858 49.1063 7.4398 72.2828 0.1760
PPENP 139 -0.7381 17.4203 14.1185 48.4449 19.8954 77.5941 0.2202 PINF 139 -1.9494 -14.2799 6.7573 61.5828 10.3894 130.0 0.0247
PPL 139 -7.0025 -2.0321 44.9847 27.7217 67.5840 49.3652 0.2124 TPP 139 -10.0574 -5.1904 49.0290 22.8015 78.9562 44.9178 0.2485
PKESRT 139 2.3738 27.6486 9.8668 41.5277 12.8435 76.6113 0.5607 PPENRT 139 6.6105 31.8391 19.2046 51.8040 26.3837 99.2984 0.4743
PRTL 139 31.5048 13.4023 101.0 21.3026 139.8 47.8483 0.8385 TPR 139 40.4891 14.8044 122.8 23.1246 169.9 52.3829 0.8133
INV 139 -2.6070 -11.1741 21.2878 43.8952 28.4304 97.0472 0.4825 PCAP 139 0.000176 14.8044 0.000256 23.1246 0.000671 52.3829 -8.195
UNEMP 139 -10094.9 -79.8769 40289.3 174.4 56231.5 462.8 -3.273 GINI 139 -0.00652 -1.0057 0.0289 12.0489 0.0369 15.2003 -.1976
POV 139 -92175.5 -481.8 136160 514.9 335697 2083.2 -7.499
252
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Theil Forecast Error Statistics
MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U HEAL 139 8.2163 0.21 0.08 0.60 0.31 0.11 0.81 0.0411 0.0204
EDU 139 0.9849 0.86 0.10 0.52 0.38 0.31 0.59 0.1400 0.0680 PRODVA 139 56.3528 0.34 0.02 0.12 0.86 0.09 0.90 0.7331 0.3795
PRODVI 139 92.9326 0.70 0.04 0.06 0.91 0.03 0.94 0.5354 0.2653 PRODVS 139 15.3281 0.79 0.14 0.14 0.71 0.01 0.85 0.3661 0.1713
PC 139 2003887 0.14 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.49 0.51 0.7811 0.4774 PTKA 139 4.0837E9 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.10 0.90 0.3189 0.1632
PTKI 139 2.3904E9 0.59 0.02 0.01 0.98 0.17 0.81 0.3963 0.2003 PTKS 139 1.0271E9 0.92 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.03 0.96 0.1748 0.0873
PTK 139 3.162E9 0.95 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.02 0.94 0.1180 0.0586 PDRBA 139 205602 0.60 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.11 0.89 0.4524 0.2330
PDRBI 139 800661 0.85 0.13 0.00 0.87 0.06 0.81 0.4497 0.2216 PDRBS 139 857042 0.85 0.11 0.06 0.83 0.00 0.89 0.4128 0.1968
PDRB 139 2789990 0.87 0.15 0.00 0.85 0.03 0.82 0.3526 0.1703 YCAP 139 0.000045 0.55 0.09 0.80 0.11 0.51 0.39 1.3654 0.4595
YD 139 2693076 0.87 0.14 0.00 0.85 0.04 0.82 0.3479 0.1684 TAX 139 289.7 0.75 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.02 0.98 0.3808 0.1912
NTAX 139 3514.0 0.81 0.03 0.43 0.54 0.18 0.80 0.2275 0.1139 PENPEM 139 4584.8 0.81 0.02 0.38 0.61 0.13 0.85 0.2254 0.1126
PKESP 139 55.3511 0.46 0.00 0.04 0.96 0.15 0.84 0.4307 0.2253 PPENP 139 395.8 0.49 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.19 0.81 0.4780 0.2532
PINF 139 107.9 0.63 0.04 0.35 0.62 0.05 0.92 0.5059 0.2550 PPL 139 4567.6 0.66 0.01 0.27 0.72 0.02 0.97 0.3161 0.1592
TPP 139 6234.1 0.72 0.02 0.35 0.63 0.07 0.91 0.2793 0.1401 PKESRT 139 165.0 0.76 0.03 0.00 0.96 0.09 0.88 0.3243 0.1611
PPENRT 139 696.1 0.74 0.06 0.07 0.86 0.01 0.93 0.4173 0.2018 PRTL 139 19539.7 0.92 0.05 0.00 0.95 0.05 0.90 0.1736 0.0859
TPR 139 28872.3 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.94 0.04 0.90 0.1882 0.0929 INV 139 808.3 0.78 0.01 0.23 0.76 0.03 0.96 0.3155 0.1577
PCAP 139 4.506E-7 0.64 0.07 0.87 0.06 0.66 0.27 0.7169 0.2964 UNEMP 139 3.162E9 0.50 0.03 0.79 0.18 0.42 0.55 1.1096 0.4600
GINI 139 0.00136 0.23 0.03 0.18 0.79 0.08 0.89 0.1513 0.0769 POV 139 1.127E11 0.58 0.08 0.85 0.08 0.60 0.32 1.4842 0.5457
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The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics
Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U HEAL 139 0.00168 0.26 0.09 0.74 0.17 0.29 0.62 2.3142 0.6886
EDU 139 0.0144 0.48 0.11 0.54 0.35 0.15 0.74 1.4743 0.5547 PRODVA 139 7.6828 0.19 0.05 0.88 0.07 0.51 0.44 3.6216 0.7693
PRODVI 139 0.5025 0.32 0.20 0.42 0.37 0.05 0.75 1.5328 0.5984 PRODVS 139 0.2447 0.28 0.19 0.64 0.17 0.24 0.57 2.3072 0.6758
PC 139 2.5332 0.24 0.02 0.18 0.80 0.07 0.91 1.0643 0.6024 PTKA 139 25.4852 0.28 0.02 0.38 0.60 0.00 0.98 1.2310 0.6053
PTKI 139 1.0419 0.47 0.06 0.45 0.48 0.06 0.87 1.2446 0.5203 PTKS 139 0.0497 0.88 0.02 0.03 0.95 0.00 0.97 0.4848 0.2445
PTK 139 0.1394 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.14 0.86 0.5994 0.3367 PDRBA 139 28.6509 0.51 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.15 0.85 0.8659 0.5197
PDRBI 139 7.3676 0.37 0.15 0.75 0.10 0.42 0.43 2.8628 0.6947 PDRBS 139 0.7255 0.49 0.10 0.63 0.26 0.24 0.65 1.6818 0.5699
PDRB 139 0.9154 0.51 0.13 0.55 0.32 0.17 0.70 1.4890 0.5414 YCAP 139 1.1013 0.02 0.15 0.85 0.00 0.73 0.12 14.0944 0.9282
YD 139 0.9487 0.51 0.12 0.56 0.32 0.18 0.70 1.5016 0.5431 TAX 139 0.2937 0.28 0.00 0.51 0.49 0.04 0.96 1.3586 0.5997
NTAX 139 0.1893 0.35 0.04 0.65 0.31 0.18 0.78 1.6675 0.6179 PENPEM 139 0.1711 0.34 0.03 0.62 0.35 0.14 0.82 1.5794 0.6100
PKESP 139 0.6092 0.34 0.01 0.62 0.37 0.13 0.86 1.5157 0.5904 PPENP 139 0.4995 0.66 0.00 0.13 0.86 0.00 1.00 0.7808 0.4003
PINF 139 1.7128 0.49 0.03 0.38 0.60 0.03 0.95 1.0774 0.5034 PPL 139 0.2808 0.34 0.02 0.57 0.41 0.10 0.88 1.4508 0.5958
TPP 139 0.2497 0.33 0.03 0.63 0.34 0.14 0.83 1.5978 0.6156 PKESRT 139 0.6738 0.66 0.07 0.52 0.40 0.19 0.74 1.1643 0.4532
PPENRT 139 0.8680 0.54 0.08 0.72 0.21 0.36 0.56 1.8303 0.5740 PRTL 139 0.2086 0.89 0.06 0.32 0.62 0.14 0.80 0.5836 0.2605
TPR 139 0.2487 0.85 0.06 0.37 0.56 0.16 0.77 0.6873 0.2982 INV 139 1.0349 0.46 0.06 0.42 0.52 0.04 0.89 1.1949 0.5387
PCAP 139 0.4015 0.55 0.06 0.85 0.08 0.59 0.34 2.9240 0.6724 UNEMP 139 10.8377 0.52 0.00 0.96 0.03 0.77 0.23 4.4980 0.7590
GINI 139 0.0229 0.60 0.02 0.23 0.75 0.00 0.98 0.9217 0.4512 POV 139 362.1 0.00 0.05 0.94 0.01 0.76 0.19 10.3437 0.9179
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Lampiran 5. Hasil Simulasi 1. Hasil Simulasi
Dampak
Peningkatan Pengeluaran Pendidikan Sebesar 20 Persen
Nama Variabel Nilai
Dasar Nilai
Simulasi Perubahan
1. Blok Human Capital