Methodology for Climate Risk Mapping

77 this in the analysis. The weight and the formula used to calculate the index the climate hazard is given in Table 6.2. The adjusted matrix of climate risk is presented in Table 6.3. Table 6.2 .. Weight and formula for calculating climate hazards index Type of hazard Weight Formula Flood 1.25 Probability of having monthly rainfall of more than 339 mm multiplied by average of area of Kelurahan being impacted by flood. In order to get the index value of between 0 and 1, the calculated value is normalized by the maximum value Drought 1.50 Probability of having dry month with length of more than 6 month multiplied by number of dry month above the 6 month DM 6+ . Dry month is defined as month with rainfall of less than 129 mm. If total length of dry month is 8 month, the DM 6+ = 2 months. In order to get the index value of between 0 and 1, the calculated value is normalized by the maximum value. Land slide 0.75 Probability of having monthly rainfall of more than Q2 multiplied by slope indicator of the corresponding Kelurahan . Kelurahan that has locations with slope of more than 45 o , the indicator value will be equal to 1, otherwise zero. Sea Level Rise 1.00 Fraction of Kelurahan area being inundated by the sea level rise Max CCHI 4.50 Note: The weight is very subjective and determined based on Expert Judgement. Drought has the highest weight as its impact may be more severe than flood due its duration and extend of impacted area. Impact of flood, land slide and sea level rise is more localized than that of drought. Table 6.3 .. Matrix of Climate Risk according the coping capacity index and composite climate hazard index Coping Capacity Index Composite Climate Hazard Index CCHI More than 3.5 Between 2.0 and 3.5 Less than 2.0 5 Very High High Medium to High 4 High Medium to High Medium 3 Medium to High Medium Medium to Low 2 Medium Medium to Low Low 1 Medium to Low Low Very Lowe Methodology for defining critical rainfall causing flood and the one causing drought was based on statistical distribution of the monthly rainfall and hazard data from 7 Kelurahan s Table 6.4. The critical rainfall threshold was determined based on the characteristics of the hazards and time of the hazards occurrence month and year and regional monthly rainfall intensity of the corresponding year based on data from Masgar station, 05°1012 S and 105°1029.4 E. 78 Table 6.4 .. Flood and drought hazard events in Bandar Lampung City Type of Disasters Name of Village Sub-District Lon Lat Date and Month Incident Year Flood Panjang Selatan Panjang 105.32 31 - 5.475 2 Oct-Dec 1981- 2007 Sukabumi Indah Sukabumi 105.29 56 - 5.398 3 Jul 2008 Pasir Gintung Tanjung Karang Pusat 105.25 71 - 5.404 7 18-Dec 2008 Kota Karang Teluk Betung Barat 105.26 06 - 5.454 7 Aug-Oct 2008.20 09 Kangkung Teluk Betung Selatan 105.26 77 - 5.446 5 Jan 2006.20 09 Batu Putu Teluk Betung Utara 105.22 29 - 5.431 4 Rainy season 2006 Drought Panjang Selatan Panjang 105.32 31 - 5.475 2 May-Aug, Jan- Mar Every year Sukabumi Indah Sukabumi 105.29 57 - 5.398 3 May-Oct Every year Pasir Gintung Tanjung Karang Pusat 105.25 71 - 5.404 7 Apr-Oct Every year Kota Karang Teluk Betung Barat 105.26 06 - 5.454 7 Feb-Sept Every year Kangkung Teluk Betung Selatan 105.26 77 - 5.446 5 Every month Every year Batu Putu Teluk Betung Utara 105.22 29 - 5.431 4 May-Oct Every year Source: Bappeda Lampung 2006 Based on Boxplot of monthly rainfall data of dry season and wet season Figure 6.1, we found the rainfall which separate the two monthly rainfall distributions was 129 mm. This value was taken as the critical rainfall causing drought since drought occurred every year Table 6.4. This means that if rainfall is below 129 mm, drought will occur. For flood, we adopt the critical value of 339 mm quartile 3 of the distribution since floods did not occur every year as the drought. Thus, if rainfall in wet season is above this value, flood will occur. 79 Figure 6.1 .Box plot of monthly rainfall in dry and wet season during hazard and no- hazards years .

6.2 Classification of Kelurahan Villages Based on Level of Their

Exposure to Climate Risk Figure 6.2 shows Composite Climate Hazard Index baseline 2005, and the Climate Hazard A2 scenario in 2025, A2 in 2050, B1 in 2025 and B1 in 2050. The analysis shown that the most areas are in the range of index 1.5 shown in green and yellow in the figure, and only a small portion that 1.5 shown in red on the scenarios A2 and B1, namely at the southern part of Panjang subdistrict. In the A2 scenario, the area that has index 1.5 is slightly wider Figure 6.2 B and C than the baseline or scenario B, which is indicated by a part of Teluk Betung Barat subdistrict. Baseline Climate Hazard in 2005, when projected with the A2 and B1 scenarios in 2025 and 2050, in many areas does not change. This shows good adaptability. Adaptability will determine the width or narrowness of the coping range tolerance interval. The higher ability of adaptation will have a wider interval of tolerance coping range from the system. Threshold for drought, 129 mm Threshold for flood, 339 mm 80 Figure 6.2 .. Composite Climate Hazard Index of Bandar Lampung. Note: A D Climate Hazard Baseline, B Climate Hazard A2 2025, C Climate Hazard A2 2050, E Climate Hazard B1 2025, F Climate Hazard B1 2050. Note: Green 0.75, Yellow 1.75 – 1.50, Red 150. See appendix 1 for detail Classification of Kelurahan based on the level of exposure to climate risks is shown in Figure 6.3. It was shown that there are no Kelurahan with Very High VH Climate Risk Category at present baseline conditions. The highest category is only Medium to High M-H. There are about 14 Kelurahans 14.2 with M-H risk category. These include Kota Karang and Perwata Teluk Betung Barat Sub- district, Kelurahan Gunung Terang Tanjung Karang Barat Sub-district, Kelurahan Tanjung Senang and Way Kandis Tanjung Senang Sub-district, Kelurahan Waydadi Sukarame Sub-district, Kelurahan Sepang Jaya and Kedaton Kedaton Sub-district, Kelurahan Kangkung, Bumi Waras, kankung and Teluk Betung Teluk Betung Selatan Sub-district and Kelurahan Panjang Selatan and Srangsem Panjang Sub-district . The remaining are 5 Kelurahans 5.1 as M Medium risk, A C B D F E 0.75 0.75 – 1.50 1.50