Impor 4.39 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun L3LASIR
LASMIN DLASMIN
RLASMSIN LASMIS
DLASMIS RLASMSIS
1980 161.97
45.68 1981
165.45 3.48
1.63 67.36
21.68 1982
172.17 6.73
3.00 76.95
9.58 1983
6.18 189.66
17.49 6.69
79.38 2.43
2.74 1984
5.70 214.10
24.44 7.18
80.02 0.64
0.64 1985
8.54 232.41
18.31 5.46
87.91 7.90
8.15 1986
37.04 241.32
8.91 2.68
87.59 -0.32
-0.30 1987
40.55 272.58
31.26 8.55
100.20 12.61
9.63 1988
118.56 289.91
17.33 4.64
131.44 31.24
21.76 1989
129.90 303.19
13.28 3.63
149.05 17.61
12.21 1990
203.05 317.28
14.09 3.79
208.35 59.30
37.06 1991
196.28 348.51
31.23 7.90
234.04 25.69
8.76 1992
223.83 350.99
2.48 0.64
295.05 61.01
15.90 1993
291.34 348.42
-2.57 -0.67
338.96 43.91
9.48 1994
384.59 351.04
2.61 0.68
403.03 64.07
12.06 1995
439.47 370.99
19.95 4.93
498.86 95.83
15.01 1996
502.33 384.09
13.10 3.07
607.06 108.20
14.82 1997
572.54 398.83
14.74 2.85
684.09 77.03
9.11 1998
658.54 418.15
19.32 3.47
740.42 56.33
5.86 1999
738.89 414.18
-3.98 -0.69
948.66 208.23
19.21 2000
813.18 433.05
18.87 3.21
1219.92 271.26
17.04 2001
890.51 494.45
61.40 10.07
1401.79 181.87
8.61 2002
1041.05 525.89
31.44 4.98
1530.61 128.82
5.64 2003
1166.76 538.22
12.33 1.86
1611.41 80.80
3.36 2004
1561.03 574.22
36.00 5.94
1818.93 207.52
8.16 2005
1808.42 619.83
45.61 8.61
2088.05 269.12
10.24 2006
1854.39 639.77
19.94 2.90
2473.30 385.25
13.93 2007
2220.34 515.50
-124.27 -20.50
2381.86 -91.44
-3.72 2008
2356.90 510.08
-5.42 -0.89
2413.28 31.42
1.22
Tahun LASMIR
DLASMIR RLASMSIR
YIESIN YIESIS
YIESIR PRODSI
1980 1.22
3.08 4.85
0.63 721.17
1981 2.49
1.28 22.42
3.22 3.94
0.42 800.06
1982 5.54
3.05 35.67
3.48 3.71
0.53 886.82
1983 5.98
0.44 1.19
3.75 3.39
0.58 982.99
1984 6.43
0.45 1.11
3.80 4.11
0.63 1147.19
1985 28.42
21.99 18.55
3.71 3.86
1.51 1243.43
1986 45.17
16.75 12.90
3.78 4.39
1.18 1350.73
1987 48.47
3.30 1.62
3.63 3.52
3.41 1506.06
1988 97.13
48.66 24.79
3.80 3.46
1.61 1713.34
1989 80.37
-16.76 -7.49
3.91 4.01
2.29 1964.95
1990 152.40
72.03 24.72
3.93 3.78
2.47 2412.61
1991 189.70
37.29 9.70
3.90 3.78
2.18 2657.60
1992 209.28
19.58 4.46
4.24 3.65
3.34 3266.25
1993 233.29
24.01 4.78
4.22 4.04
2.49 3421.45
1994 291.49
58.20 10.16
4.48 3.96
2.88 4008.06
1995 368.85
77.36 11.75
4.35 3.74
2.72 4479.67
1996 437.20
68.35 9.25
4.44 3.39
2.59 4898.66
1997 492.20
55.00 6.76
3.98 3.77
2.61 5448.51
1998 540.90
48.70 5.47
3.59 4.17
2.49 5930.42
1999 723.08
182.18 17.50
3.55 3.62
2.14 6455.59
2000 798.10
75.02 6.43
3.37 2.98
2.39 7000.51
2001 1059.88
261.78 16.77
3.07 2.91
2.64 8396.47
2002 1250.91
191.04 10.56
3.06 3.00
2.74 9622.35
2003 1278.95
28.04 1.51
3.25 3.21
2.75 10440.83
2004 1542.83
263.88 11.88
2.82 2.95
2.49 10830.39
2005 1675.19
132.36 5.62
2.34 2.83
2.69 11861.62
2006 1847.46
172.28 6.76
3.62 3.74
3.13 17350.85
2007 1983.97
136.51 4.96
4.11 3.86
3.20 17664.73
2008 2030.03
46.05 1.59
4.16 3.85
3.29 18089.50
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun STOKSI
PESI ERI
XSI SDSI
RSDSI CSI
1980 -
5.00 7753.50
510.50 228.67
30.94 561.00
1981 19.74
10.00 6960.17
206.41 631.65
75.37 573.00
1982 44.39
5.00 6655.91
302.24 632.59
67.67 607.00
1983 42.89
5.00 8185.16
406.88 594.11
59.35 893.00
1984 31.19
10.00 8361.23
246.91 993.28
80.09 636.00
1985 53.02
5.00 8642.31
651.88 618.55
48.69 545.00
1986 32.94
5.00 9431.07
683.87 678.86
49.82 728.00
1987 22.48
5.00 11061.73
698.75 877.32
55.67 805.00
1988 26.96
5.00 10498.88
885.53 839.81
48.68 1280.00
1989 31.33
10.00 10359.47
912.95 1139.00
55.51 1245.00
1990 57.13
5.00 10003.69
1096.73 1470.88
57.29 1330.00
1991 340.00
10.00 9676.70
1435.63 1246.97
46.48 1695.00
1992 124.65
10.00 9366.25
1270.54 2150.71
62.86 1785.00
1993 729.34
10.00 8779.92
1702.75 1797.70
51.36 2195.00
1994 592.94
10.30 8376.07
2116.49 1904.57
47.36 2440.00
1995 412.15
23.20 7965.26
1679.08 2874.59
63.13 2745.00
1996 900.52
15.80 7684.66
1671.96 3369.70
66.84 3010.00
1997 961.37
15.20 8985.36
2967.59 2716.92
47.80 2660.00
1998 779.89
40.00 19525.66
1479.28 4700.14
76.06 2791.00
1999 745.03
30.00 12712.26
3298.99 3358.60
50.45 3141.00
2000 824.30
10.00 13140.63
4110.03 3281.48
44.40 3263.00
2001 751.44
3.00 14358.46
4903.22 4148.25
45.83 3381.00
2002 925.82
3.00 11646.09
6333.71 3791.64
37.45 3606.00
2003 795.82
3.00 10065.09
6386.41 4834.42
43.08 3779.00
2004 865.82
3.00 9873.13
8661.65 3288.74
27.52 4015.00
2005 905.82
3.00 9704.74
10376.19 2538.43
19.66 4255.00
2006 1015.82
1.50 8097.71
12100.92 5951.93
32.97 4501.00
2007 1786.74
10.00 7601.03
12650.00 6187.73
32.85 4665.00
2008 2156.47
5.00 7325.33
14612.00 4500.50
23.55 4875.00
Tahun RCSI
RCSDSI HESI
RHESIW LHESI
HDSI LHDSI
1980 245.33
365.91 0.76
3078.14 1981
2.14 90.71
474.78 0.86
365.91 2714.47
3078.14 1982
5.93 95.96
498.50 1.09
474.78 1750.50
2714.47 1983
47.12 150.31
463.74 0.96
498.50 2496.47
1750.50 1984
-28.78 64.03
467.59 0.71
463.74 4042.08
2496.47 1985
-14.31 88.11
393.31 0.77
467.59 2592.69
4042.08 1986
33.58 107.24
192.79 0.78
393.31 2396.36
2592.69 1987
10.58 91.76
279.57 0.81
192.79 2913.46
2396.36 1988
59.01 152.42
366.01 0.90
279.57 3399.99
2913.46 1989
-2.73 109.31
337.58 0.93
366.01 3275.72
3399.99 1990
6.83 90.42
275.99 0.88
337.58 2479.22
3275.72 1991
27.44 135.93
341.02 0.85
275.99 3245.42
2479.22 1992
5.31 83.00
439.03 0.90
341.02 3358.93
3245.42 1993
22.97 122.10
409.92 0.89
439.03 2919.63
3358.93 1994
11.16 128.11
426.99 0.83
409.92 3811.86
2919.63 1995
12.50 95.49
544.39 0.94
426.99 4479.80
3811.86 1996
9.65 89.33
484.99 0.93
544.39 3760.44
4479.80 1997
-11.63 97.90
457.38 0.89
484.99 4436.60
3760.44 1998
4.92 59.38
533.89 0.75
457.38 7710.12
4436.60 1999
12.54 93.52
415.26 0.78
533.89 4747.97
7710.12 2000
3.88 99.44
337.51 0.85
415.26 5131.75
4747.97 2001
3.62 81.50
353.91 0.90
337.51 4598.35
5131.75 2002
6.65 95.10
403.77 0.82
353.91 5269.57
4598.35 2003
4.80 78.17
441.85 0.83
403.77 5008.49
5269.57 2004
6.25 122.08
455.50 0.89
441.85 5063.03
5008.49 2005
5.98 167.62
348.98 0.83
455.50 4825.47
5063.03 2006
5.78 75.62
322.82 0.80
348.98 4156.28
4825.47 2007
3.64 75.39
467.41 0.81
322.82 5940.26
4156.28 2008
4.50 108.32
550.50 0.88
467.41 5172.37
5940.26
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun PRODSM
STOKSM ERM
XSM CSM
PESM HESM
1980 2692.00
416.00 4.61
2136.24 420.00
15.00 444.85
1981 3351.00
258.00 4.45
2361.13 434.00
15.00 487.33
1982 3179.00
521.00 4.26
2699.99 518.00
15.00 433.61
1983 3324.00
318.00 4.09
2912.88 357.00
15.00 423.33
1984 3817.00
472.00 3.97
2959.44 506.00
15.00 664.24
1985 4772.00
529.00 4.19
3214.90 619.00
15.00 526.46
1986 4560.00
613.00 4.33
4304.42 542.00
15.00 270.54
1987 4852.00
652.00 4.21
4074.97 692.00
15.00 292.80
1988 5636.00
684.00 4.27
4150.53 763.00
15.00 335.98
1989 6412.00
887.00 4.29
4947.87 882.00
15.00 333.83
1990 6031.00
912.00 4.18
5655.69 914.00
15.00 281.70
1991 6222.00
817.00 4.07
5509.08 1020.00
15.00 357.12
1992 7125.00
656.00 3.60
5537.10 1274.00
15.00 427.89
1993 7100.00
1026.00 3.51
5839.16 1227.00
15.00 410.95
1994 7771.00
627.00 3.45
6935.75 1170.00
15.00 448.45
1995 8264.00
646.00 3.18
6862.09 1370.00
15.00 583.19
1996 9005.00
894.00 3.09
7922.98 1458.00
15.00 557.31
1997 8508.00
907.00 3.37
7489.97 1366.00
10.00 500.05
1998 9758.00
719.00 4.46
7290.18 1459.00
10.00 620.79
1999 10491.00
1208.00 4.21
8584.64 1566.00
10.00 506.76
2000 11937.00
1368.00 4.14
8140.72 1675.00
10.00 359.69
2001 11858.00
1216.00 4.08
10002.49 1742.00
10.00 337.37
2002 13180.00
1158.00 4.01
10448.74 2074.00
10.00 462.03
2003 13420.00
955.00 3.97
12079.13 2234.00
10.00 529.74
2004 15194.00
1318.00 3.91
11793.59 2659.00
5.00 457.74
2005 15485.00
1507.00 3.79
13192.54 2926.00
5.00 378.92
2006 15290.00
1881.00 3.54
14202.67 3109.00
5.00 350.04
2007 17567.00
1462.00 3.25
13747.00 2896.00
5.00 295.90
2008 17700.00
1951.00 2.99
15413.00 3251.00
5.00 557.03
Tahun POPA
PRODKA PRODMA
STOKKA STOKMA
XKA XMA
1980 27.95
183.00 427.00
12.00 35.00
84.00 207.00
1981 28.45
312.00 683.00
8.00 51.00
220.00 435.00
1982 28.93
393.00 904.00
18.00 40.00
298.00 656.00
1983 29.34
593.00 812.00
37.00 48.00
513.00 560.00
1984 29.84
580.00 1261.00
39.00 36.00
528.00 885.00
1985 30.35
731.00 1408.00
14.00 93.00
628.00 1065.00
1986 30.74
853.00 919.00
37.00 91.00
780.00 602.00
1987 31.09
1200.00 1033.00
25.00 59.00
980.00 699.00
1988 31.47
930.00 1310.00
156.00 63.00
772.00 925.00
1989 31.86
1125.00 1372.00
220.00 82.00
1188.00 1162.00
1990 32.53
1264.00 1505.00
59.00 74.00
1068.00 1175.00
1991 32.97
1367.00 1405.00
152.00 86.00
892.00 1050.00
1992 33.42
1559.00 1140.00
519.00 91.00
1297.00 775.00
1993 33.92
1551.00 1305.00
658.00 85.00
1418.00 920.00
1994 34.35
1733.00 1990.00
652.00 80.00
1545.00 1556.00
1995 34.78
1758.00 2063.00
689.00 95.00
1694.00 1510.00
1996 35.20
1859.00 2121.00
564.00 168.00
1770.00 1722.00
1997 35.60
2953.00 2118.00
445.00 88.00
2544.00 1594.00
1998 36.01
3118.00 2533.00
637.00 130.00
3085.00 1854.00
1999 36.40
3017.00 2019.00
440.00 241.00
2837.00 1544.00
2000 36.78
3630.00 1227.00
378.00 150.00
3510.00 1004.00
2001 37.16
4165.00 1441.00
211.00 40.00
3639.00 1157.00
2002 37.52
4672.00 1294.00
380.00 54.00
4245.00 898.00
2003 37.87
4724.00 1205.00
418.00 88.00
4446.00 1007.00
2004 38.23
5558.00 1592.00
304.00 31.00
5082.00 1176.00
2005 38.59
6169.00 1551.00
385.00 111.00
5665.00 1221.00
2006 38.97
6917.00 1202.00
487.00 74.00
6514.00 853.00
2007 39.36
6189.00 1576.00
310.00 36.00
5110.00 1219.00
2008 39.75
5975.00 1445.00
363.00 31.00
4855.00 1040.00
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun CKA
CMA PEKA
PEMA IPA
ERA HEKA
1980 103.00
204.00 15.04
17.00 63738.23
2.41 478.75
1981 82.00
259.00 20.14
20.50 46628.02
4.17 495.91
1982 76.00
240.00 21.96
22.00 35214.72
1.83 428.62
1983 78.00
264.00 22.62
16.50 28867.23
0.57 438.41
1984 77.00
319.00 22.65
20.00 28497.21
3.50 617.03
1985 80.00
345.00 18.04
17.00 25581.11
2.97 574.12
1986 85.00
349.00 12.25
10.50 28697.93
4.82 300.24
1987 89.00
330.00 15.01
14.50 30087.89
1.10 317.58
1988 94.00
366.00 27.13
14.00 29270.46
4.37 387.58
1989 98.00
218.00 22.87
17.00 23583.84
1.79 436.30
1990 103.00
318.00 19.83
13.50 22104.71
1.92 451.28
1991 108.00
350.00 14.74
8.00 15158.58
2.28 495.19
1992 123.00
371.00 21.14
12.00 13519.42
1.90 492.83
1993 139.00
390.00 23.44
17.50 13078.70
1.73 530.14
1994 151.00
419.00 27.32
18.50 13394.90
1.66 555.23
1995 189.00
480.00 24.80
16.50 12693.59
1.61 561.73
1996 208.00
482.00 19.99
11.00 13467.73
1.61 527.75
1997 217.00
482.00 20.61
14.00 14570.19
1.60 499.59
1998 230.00
568.00 22.45
29.50 14993.70
1.58 648.87
1999 242.00
567.00 23.73
30.00 14712.10
1.60 509.10
2000 287.00
333.00 20.57
22.50 14895.24
1.62 402.73
2001 357.00
270.00 21.31
16.00 14569.75
1.63 433.76
2002 389.00
362.00 20.48
14.00 10380.87
3.98 502.47
2003 392.00
256.00 20.17
11.00 10078.70
3.32 598.46
2004 395.00
337.00 21.44
14.00 10699.52
3.21 587.41
2005 402.00
367.00 18.18
14.50 10871.85
2.90 463.22
2006 580.00
389.00 20.46
16.00 10872.89
2.75 410.32
2007 1026.00
362.00 17.94
12.50 11056.48
2.56 511.23
2008 1083.00
368.00 20.23
13.50 10994.02
2.40 748.35
Tahun HEMA
HDKA HDMA
RHEDKA RHEDMA
POPB PRODKB
1980 445.30
254.52 157.92
1.88 2.82
121.62 2585.00
1981 571.49
371.33 227.81
1.34 2.51
124.49 2392.00
1982 514.36
451.20 278.73
0.95 1.85
127.42 2408.00
1983 405.22
420.70 245.04
1.04 1.65
130.36 2353.00
1984 639.25
351.81 217.02
1.75 2.95
133.28 2587.00
1985 607.95
354.68 241.32
1.62 2.52
136.15 2319.00
1986 324.73
289.37 206.29
1.04 1.57
138.96 2605.00
1987 319.77
423.54 262.65
0.75 1.22
141.71 2576.00
1988 372.94
257.81 169.27
1.50 2.20
144.39 3050.00
1989 455.09
233.12 166.03
1.87 2.74
147.01 2908.00
1990 482.86
256.36 168.70
1.76 2.86
149.57 2450.00
1991 516.89
309.36 182.31
1.60 2.84
152.06 2761.00
1992 519.62
309.98 193.79
1.59 2.68
154.49 3155.00
1993 563.37
398.82 261.43
1.33 2.15
156.87 3523.00
1994 572.03
329.30 217.92
1.69 2.62
159.27 4061.00
1995 568.09
299.90 192.87
1.87 2.95
161.69 3776.00
1996 556.93
400.69 216.38
1.32 2.57
164.16 3527.00
1997 536.74
410.16 222.70
1.22 2.41
166.65 4083.00
1998 700.52
337.04 245.88
1.93 2.85
169.16 4048.00
1999 590.30
307.91 206.09
1.65 2.86
171.68 4036.00
2000 460.70
344.06 197.51
1.17 2.33
174.17 4370.00
2001 578.11
347.92 235.60
1.25 2.45
176.66 4905.00
2002 661.74
291.58 204.88
1.72 3.23
179.12 5349.00
2003 659.18
324.13 213.60
1.85 3.09
181.54 5579.00
2004 663.39
394.14 266.73
1.49 2.49
183.86 5710.00
2005 599.20
478.20 324.32
0.97 1.85
186.08 5520.00
2006 481.33
434.35 294.58
0.94 1.63
188.16 6050.00
2007 547.21
464.68 315.33
1.10 1.74
190.12 6160.00
2008 618.13
509.69 321.22
1.47 1.92
191.97 6050.00
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun STOKKB
XKB CKB
PEKB IPB
ERB HEKB
1980 262.00
1212.00 1490.00
15.26 25816.34
0.14 465.40
1981 145.00
873.00 1505.00
20.09 20047.11
0.19 490.30
1982 181.00
947.00 1575.00
20.49 21928.79
0.38 556.52
1983 110.00
920.00 1580.00
25.10 19139.39
1.09 707.51
1984 107.00
935.00 1596.00
25.51 16884.27
2.88 573.12
1985 270.00
413.00 2074.00
19.81 18863.04
3.17 484.95
1986 260.00
975.00 1832.00
13.56 20275.78
3.18 349.09
1987 117.00
661.00 1959.00
16.40 15473.40
2.56 418.93
1988 134.00
864.00 2220.00
25.88 21584.45
3.83 416.18
1989 115.00
887.00 2011.00
21.52 22906.95
3.37 455.84
1990 137.00
410.00 2073.00
19.71 22118.22
3.15 528.43
1991 149.00
710.00 2156.00
13.38 21124.04
3.18 722.53
1992 124.00
771.00 2343.00
20.04 20910.53
3.14 765.84
1993 258.00
1556.00 2399.00
22.26 21080.04
3.18 761.51
1994 146.00
1643.00 2502.00
25.28 22246.14
3.28 650.32
1995 224.00
1323.00 2664.00
23.55 14037.82
1.98 559.15
1996 188.00
1077.00 2662.00
20.80 12431.99
1.88 587.03
1997 154.00
1413.00 2795.00
22.85 12047.63
1.89 628.48
1998 226.00
1519.00 2762.00
19.11 11635.22
1.97 563.14
1999 236.00
1134.00 2971.00
21.58 11120.62
2.94 496.94
2000 278.00
1616.00 2937.00
19.64 10907.38
2.77 453.40
2001 182.00
2100.00 2936.00
18.68 10422.30
3.33 587.91
2002 191.00
2405.00 2897.00
16.97 9879.39
3.82 714.52
2003 285.00
2531.00 3054.00
16.39 8769.42
3.51 750.47
2004 293.00
2697.00 3061.00
16.96 8796.60
3.13 604.70
2005 248.00
2315.00 3171.00
15.19 8603.36
2.43 551.48
2006 300.00
2521.00 3550.00
17.67 8799.35
2.09 660.10
2007 341.00
2121.00 3925.00
17.49 9126.65
1.80 839.92
2008 505.00
2235.00 3990.00
19.36 9173.52
1.61 509.73
Tahun HDKB
RHEDKB POPUSA
PRODKUSA PRODRUSA
STOKKUSA STOKRUSA
1980 248.15
1.88 227.62
5112.00 0.00
549.00 0.00
1981 344.65
1.42 229.92
4980.00 0.00
787.00 0.00
1982 432.23
1.29 232.13
5462.00 0.00
500.00 0.00
1983 305.42
2.32 234.25
4931.00 0.00
572.00 0.00
1984 335.77
1.71 236.31
5202.00 0.00
327.00 0.00
1985 729.76
0.66 238.42
5269.00 0.00
287.00 0.00
1986 607.45
0.57 240.59
5798.00 0.00
430.00 0.00
1987 548.59
0.76 242.75
5885.00 9.00
782.00 2.00
1988 341.49
1.22 244.97
5324.00 28.00
949.00 15.00
1989 339.33
1.34 247.29
5898.00 63.00
778.00 11.00
1990 386.96
1.37 250.05
6082.00 11.00
592.00 13.00
1991 507.28
1.42 253.39
6507.00 14.00
810.00 20.00
1992 574.14
1.33 256.78
6250.00 24.00
1016.00 34.00
1993 340.17
2.24 260.15
6328.00 186.00
705.00 32.00
1994 277.78
2.34 263.33
7082.00 137.00
500.00 63.00
1995 243.93
2.29 266.46
6913.00 162.00
516.00 25.00
1996 341.38
1.72 269.58
7145.00 155.00
914.00 35.00
1997 350.23
1.79 272.82
8229.00 205.00
690.00 30.00
1998 308.07
1.83 276.02
8202.00 249.00
627.00 52.00
1999 267.09
1.86 279.20
8085.00 300.00
689.00 79.00
2000 298.55
1.52 282.29
8355.00 324.00
904.00 96.00
2001 308.95
1.90 285.18
8572.00 269.00
1255.00 51.00
2002 327.12
2.18 287.94
8360.00 230.00
1070.00 24.00
2003 361.67
2.08 290.62
7748.00 276.00
676.00 35.00
2004 370.52
1.63 293.24
8782.00 363.00
488.00 42.00
2005 299.67
1.84 295.92
9248.00 381.00
771.00 58.00
2006 244.60
2.70 298.70
9294.00 376.00
1365.00 120.00
2007 289.64
2.90 301.62
9329.00 443.00
1399.00 68.00
2008 320.87
1.59 304.42
8457.00 496.00
1126.00 60.00
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun XKUSA
XRUSA CKUSA
CRUSA MRUSA
SEKUSA SERUSA
1980 740.00
0.00 4134.00
6.00 6.00
9.00 16.00
1981 942.00
0.00 4325.00
7.00 7.00
5.00 23.00
1982 918.00
0.00 4472.00
5.00 5.00
9.00 26.00
1983 827.00
0.00 4349.00
5.00 5.00
7.00 22.33
1984 753.00
0.00 4498.00
15.00 15.00
6.00 22.33
1985 570.00
0.00 4560.00
42.00 42.00
7.00 18.00
1986 538.00
0.00 4915.00
82.00 84.00
5.00 12.00
1987 850.00
0.00 4956.00
128.00 132.00
10.00 14.33
1988 754.00
4.00 4803.00
239.00 211.00
6.00 31.67
1989 614.00
3.00 5480.00
249.00 191.00
5.00 27.33
1990 366.00
3.00 5506.00
275.00 274.00
5.00 22.33
1991 746.00
7.00 5555.00
367.00 374.00
5.00 17.67
1992 663.00
7.00 5903.00
415.00 396.00
15.00 23.00
1993 695.00
35.00 5869.00
532.00 412.00
24.00 24.33
1994 1217.00
70.00 5857.00
535.00 430.00
28.00 29.00
1995 450.00
67.00 6108.00
582.00 497.00
27.00 25.33
1996 922.00
134.00 6471.00
528.00 502.00
14.00 19.67
1997 1397.00
158.00 6922.00
529.00 504.00
19.00 18.00
1998 1076.00
123.00 7101.00
602.00 503.00
44.00 22.67
1999 624.00
129.00 7283.00
688.00 534.00
41.00 23.33
2000 636.00
85.00 7401.00
829.00 545.00
30.00 20.00
2001 1143.00
116.00 7635.00
683.00 503.00
23.00 23.67
2002 1027.00
73.00 7748.00
591.00 445.00
19.00 24.33
2003 425.00
126.00 7650.00
698.00 555.00
16.00 24.67
2004 600.00
122.00 7911.00
739.00 514.00
20.00 26.33
2005 523.00
214.00 8147.00
831.00 726.00
20.00 21.00
2006 851.00
286.00 8426.00
854.00 712.00
17.00 24.00
2007 1319.00
158.00 8313.00
1309.00 1016.00
6.00 20.33
2008 907.00
160.00 7484.00
1488.00 1162.00
12.00 22.33
Tahun TMRUSA
IPUSA HEKUSA
HERUSA HDKUSA
HDRUSA HMRUSA
1980 38.17
29031.33 506.34
452.93 534.14
502.40 564.38
1981 38.17
29217.17 492.67
546.68 659.29
608.92 629.85
1982 38.17
28361.78 509.14
678.91 847.03
771.44 648.24
1983 38.17
29586.27 478.51
564.60 692.72
626.34 634.89
1984 33.50
31265.38 603.24
615.75 739.45
685.98 714.53
1985 33.00
32103.98 663.31
714.30 852.07
783.57 685.24
1986 30.02
33030.13 376.96
665.50 798.79
727.52 351.47
1987 30.23
33511.45 372.28
570.42 707.31
624.75 337.68
1988 30.45
34381.04 427.27
436.50 517.64
482.25 431.14
1989 30.66
34924.38 560.55
491.14 570.05
529.75 492.84
1990 30.87
34671.21 698.77
582.41 715.40
622.07 530.18
1991 31.09
33909.10 884.22
658.09 784.24
755.13 583.81
1992 31.30
34378.80 969.76
701.92 831.69
791.12 580.29
1993 31.51
34647.74 733.88
797.41 949.86
866.54 637.69
1994 31.73
35449.22 641.16
573.68 671.54
640.00 613.13
1995 31.94
35662.95 668.11
628.68 746.49
710.66 625.34
1996 32.15
36201.24 628.34
697.53 817.60
798.65 627.42
1997 32.37
37156.11 612.47
659.93 768.63
753.69 575.29
1998 32.60
38168.15 744.87
606.81 697.45
676.37 706.45
1999 30.48
39278.67 671.82
578.66 685.06
662.82 665.00
2000 27.50
39979.85 564.96
612.41 714.26
720.24 552.60
2001 22.83
39780.62 595.46
752.85 847.18
855.96 548.02
2002 23.33
40126.43 615.55
770.23 901.93
836.67 604.49
2003 26.83
40700.87 741.97
830.69 1010.54
923.93 765.45
2004 27.00
41844.15 686.39
806.21 903.92
904.46 755.02
2005 28.67
42708.17 613.68
710.83 798.40
814.00 616.35
2006 21.83
43455.02 520.04
668.36 756.76
750.01 542.36
2007 20.33
43960.58 591.10
602.92 962.46
668.21 664.19
2008 16.67
43030.97 555.18
579.43 675.31
734.56 637.46
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun RHEDKUSA
RHEDRUSA POPCD
PRODRCD STOKRCD
XRCD CRCD
1980 0.95
0.90 24.47
418.00 32.00
198.00 233.00
1981 0.75
0.90 24.79
382.00 19.00
163.00 225.00
1982 0.60
0.88 25.08
366.00 13.00
111.00 247.00
1983 0.69
0.90 25.34
456.00 21.00
177.00 289.00
1984 0.82
0.90 25.58
514.00 11.00
237.00 270.00
1985 0.78
0.91 25.81
498.00 18.00
165.00 309.00
1986 0.47
0.91 26.07
607.00 42.00
306.00 293.00
1987 0.53
0.91 26.40
612.00 50.00
336.00 294.00
1988 0.83
0.91 26.76
533.00 32.00
208.00 328.00
1989 0.98
0.93 27.22
483.00 29.00
150.00 330.00
1990 0.98
0.94 27.64
576.00 32.00
203.00 377.00
1991 1.13
0.87 27.99
732.00 30.00
285.00 439.00
1992 1.17
0.89 28.32
770.00 39.00
368.00 429.00
1993 0.77
0.92 28.65
901.00 15.00
414.00 489.00
1994 0.95
0.90 28.96
1060.00 29.00
424.00 651.00
1995 0.89
0.88 29.26
1154.00 18.00
550.00 627.00
1996 0.77
0.87 29.57
1136.00 29.00
695.00 487.00
1997 0.80
0.88 29.87
1288.00 35.00
894.00 485.00
1998 1.07
0.90 30.12
1292.00 20.00
787.00 506.00
1999 0.98
0.87 30.37
1253.00 28.00
773.00 517.00
2000 0.79
0.85 30.65
1260.00 93.00
739.00 527.00
2001 0.70
0.88 30.97
955.00 143.00
539.00 489.00
2002 0.68
0.92 31.31
920.00 103.00
529.00 431.00
2003 0.73
0.90 31.60
1340.00 90.00
982.00 380.00
2004 0.76
0.89 31.90
1225.00 106.00
971.00 347.00
2005 0.77
0.87 32.21
1380.00 78.00
1093.00 350.00
2006 0.69
0.89 32.53
1440.00 59.00
1265.00 363.00
2007 0.61
0.90 32.88
1675.00 7.00
1278.00 402.00
2008 0.82
0.79 33.26
1775.00 38.00
1350.00 460.00
Tahun SERCD
ERCD HERCD
HDRCD RHEDRCD
POPC IPC
1980 25.00
2.84 483.59
484.79 1.00
987.05 1999.60
1981 36.00
2.59 480.28
495.41 0.97
1000.72 1890.16
1982 35.00
2.41 490.16
455.51 1.08
1016.54 1843.37
1983 26.00
2.27 473.72
469.76 1.01
1030.08 1740.32
1984 34.00
2.29 592.58
600.87 0.99
1043.57 1754.30
1985 27.00
2.32 647.35
669.13 0.97
1058.51 1765.29
1986 16.00
2.27 395.21
365.73 1.08
1075.07 1696.98
1987 19.00
2.07 351.60
511.55 0.69
1093.00 1707.18
1988 22.00
1.85 410.46
419.23 0.98
1110.26 1759.18
1989 29.00
1.69 573.49
640.53 0.90
1127.04 1515.69
1990 22.00
1.59 606.11
626.04 0.97
1143.33 1358.42
1991 11.00
1.48 602.40
762.35 0.79
1158.23 1477.55
1992 9.00
1.54 607.57
738.51 0.82
1171.71 1658.47
1993 11.00
1.61 645.31
653.96 0.99
1185.17 1817.22
1994 9.00
1.71 621.32
613.51 1.01
1198.50 1865.57
1995 6.00
1.68 619.68
669.05 0.93
1211.21 1789.92
1996 8.00
1.64 616.99
652.22 0.95
1223.89 1804.71
1997 9.00
1.64 574.47
590.66 0.97
1236.26 1901.92
1998 15.00
1.74 703.39
722.80 0.97
1247.61 2025.21
1999 19.00
1.71 654.87
668.99 0.98
1257.86 2202.63
2000 15.00
1.67 535.51
570.63 0.94
1267.43 2438.52
2001 9.00
1.69 534.28
557.36 0.96
1276.27 2678.56
2002 9.00
1.68 616.59
603.95 1.02
1284.53 2943.63
2003 6.00
1.46 745.15
744.70 1.00
1292.27 3300.93
2004 8.00
1.33 721.38
768.74 0.94
1299.88 3685.92
2005 9.00
1.21 606.22
667.45 0.91
1307.56 4064.34
2006 15.00
1.11 540.01
585.25 0.92
1314.48 4616.99
2007 19.00
1.03 621.50
649.07 0.96
1321.05 5301.87
2008 15.00
1.00 506.93
572.32 0.89
1327.66 5738.90
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun CSC
CKC CRC
MSC MKC
MRC TMSC
1980 60.28
735.47 819.94
224.70 120.30
0.65 40.00
1981 23.86
772.30 1046.10
194.14 54.35
7.38 40.00
1982 21.27
869.76 1353.65
209.01 48.31
11.02 40.00
1983 23.93
858.53 1438.64
218.56 16.63
16.61 40.00
1984 22.36
797.42 1489.55
215.75 12.16
2.70 40.00
1985 68.47
802.99 1612.46
313.46 35.66
4.40 40.00
1986 213.82
1023.88 1672.27
459.88 178.98
26.17 40.00
1987 273.82
1298.63 1696.67
507.84 414.72
100.71 40.00
1988 425.05
1099.50 1757.21
655.70 142.91
70.38 40.00
1989 767.17
1377.87 2130.65
984.41 425.06
613.16 40.00
1990 1199.12
1173.49 2470.87
1351.75 530.10
592.03 40.00
1991 1084.21
1266.70 2585.63
1223.01 332.97
283.89 40.00
1992 641.62
1242.78 2489.72
820.68 223.85
193.27 40.00
1993 881.45
1207.04 2606.14
978.11 936.93
151.17 30.00
1994 1535.34
1363.30 2882.71
1410.42 1064.20
546.65 30.00
1995 1465.73
1540.87 3074.14
1459.91 1498.34
632.41 30.00
1996 1078.22
1730.58 3461.58
1184.92 1298.31
319.13 30.00
1997 1235.10
2002.51 3409.67
1242.61 1268.01
355.35 30.00
1998 990.32
1983.29 3395.11
1380.38 858.16
295.26 30.00
1999 1258.27
2138.92 3535.57
1598.87 879.07
102.23 30.00
2000 1460.78
2370.20 3932.00
1922.81 328.48
119.52 30.00
2001 1606.29
2424.66 3832.79
2404.96 883.84
74.59 30.00
2002 2302.73
2655.31 4191.77
3138.25 907.56
96.27 30.00
2003 3423.00
2856.54 4116.83
4092.26 1926.82
168.60 30.00
2004 3980.87
3003.61 4354.38
4252.84 2563.60
379.85 20.00
2005 4468.21
3112.80 4499.39
4741.33 1735.00
206.96 20.00
2006 5220.16
3128.62 4644.41
5488.20 1544.26
67.50 20.00
2007 5223.37
3295.54 4789.42
5497.44 2857.28
401.53 20.00
2008 5387.58
3148.21 4934.43
5668.57 2872.83
339.13 20.00
Tahun TMKC
TMRC ERC
HMSC HMKC
HMRC POPID
1980 30.00
35.00 11.93
485.55 717.69
707.85 696.63
1981 30.00
35.00 11.30
525.87 799.58
698.24 712.64
1982 30.00
35.00 10.74
523.94 782.51
613.78 728.89
1983 30.00
35.00 9.31
374.25 733.78
495.22 745.38
1984 30.00
35.00 9.34
565.32 414.86
704.96 762.10
1985 30.00
35.00 10.32
488.89 625.62
724.09 779.05
1986 190.00
35.00 10.65
332.26 402.86
419.85 796.20
1987 190.00
35.00 10.23
377.88 352.76
421.87 813.53
1988 70.00
35.00 9.30
421.52 414.66
406.53 831.05
1989 70.00
35.00 7.62
442.10 479.12
496.10 848.77
1990 130.00
35.00 8.16
378.49 511.59
508.62 866.67
1991 140.00
35.00 8.85
430.42 572.22
545.26 884.76
1992 120.00
25.00 8.91
496.21 552.85
572.54 902.98
1993 120.00
25.00 8.85
491.69 619.12
591.34 921.26
1994 130.00
25.00 11.90
461.63 594.32
569.09 939.51
1995 121.60
25.00 9.88
574.61 636.84
604.11 957.66
1996 121.60
25.00 8.94
517.06 580.10
584.08 975.70
1997 121.60
25.00 8.53
497.65 525.66
530.40 993.61
1998 121.60
25.00 8.39
674.33 667.41
654.63 1011.45
1999 121.60
25.00 8.43
616.38 643.09
694.53 1029.25
2000 121.60
25.00 8.49
420.43 522.08
496.31 1047.04
2001 121.60
25.00 8.48
389.34 501.83
560.83 1064.81
2002 121.60
25.00 8.46
486.03 592.61
640.22 1082.53
2003 41.60
35.00 8.49
522.88 648.28
683.16 1100.15
2004 41.60
35.00 8.44
529.15 672.84
681.92 1117.62
2005 19.90
9.00 8.19
412.18 535.87
593.15 1134.90
2006 19.90
9.00 7.90
379.45 438.77
544.02 1152.05
2007 19.90
9.00 7.48
536.72 564.34
610.96 1169.23
2008 20.33
9.00 6.68
570.40 527.46
563.28 1186.31
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun PRODKID
CSID CKID
MSID MKID
TMSID TMKID
1980 41.00
431.00 708.00
431.00 639.00
38.64 32.15
1981 32.00
410.00 553.00
410.00 460.00
38.55 31.91
1982 44.00
587.00 543.00
597.00 537.00
38.18 29.43
1983 53.00
497.00 763.00
557.00 808.00
37.82 29.60
1984 85.00
720.00 577.00
730.00 398.00
37.52 30.28
1985 157.00
798.00 466.00
798.00 256.00
35.76 31.54
1986 136.00
911.00 445.00
921.00 363.00
34.68 82.67
1987 138.00
1090.00 621.00
1120.00 419.00
31.50 80.46
1988 240.00
931.40 407.00
931.40 383.81
32.59 41.89
1989 279.00
630.00 340.00
600.00 30.00
32.83 42.40
1990 403.00
663.10 445.00
668.10 20.00
32.27 61.75
1991 386.00
170.00 425.00
165.00 65.00
31.70 64.43
1992 482.00
197.60 562.00
207.60 42.00
31.38 57.88
1993 718.00
210.00 711.00
200.00 41.00
28.35 57.83
1994 600.00
465.00 555.00
480.00 60.00
27.14 58.94
1995 720.00
970.00 772.00
970.00 60.00
26.15 56.16
1996 640.00
1315.00 706.00
1300.00 49.00
26.29 55.62
1997 860.00
1530.00 1095.00
1530.00 236.00
25.77 55.12
1998 975.00
2310.00 1805.00
2900.00 833.00
25.18 55.25
1999 792.00
3500.00 1582.00
3300.00 790.00
24.01 54.53
2000 795.00
4100.00 2024.00
4000.00 1400.00
23.52 53.84
2001 835.00
3525.00 2300.00
3400.00 1479.00
20.80 52.57
2002 580.00
4215.00 1900.00
3954.00 1197.00
22.94 52.30
2003 1025.00
3598.00 1885.00
3486.00 906.00
22.00 25.15
2004 880.00
3406.00 2627.00
3525.00 2026.00
18.11 24.30
2005 1075.00
3125.00 2933.00
2899.00 1727.00
17.91 16.42
2006 1180.00
3769.00 2598.00
3800.00 1403.00
17.99 16.11
2007 1399.00
4612.00 2651.00
4532.00 1281.00
17.33 15.25
2008 1571.00
5085.00 2333.00
5200.00 835.00
15.62 14.69
Tahun TMMID
IPID ERID
HMSID HMKID
RHMSIDW HMMID
1980 34.04
2689.10 53.12
528.30 479.42
1.10 472.95
1981 32.93
2698.70 51.71
531.96 438.36
0.97 542.02
1982 31.00
2700.46 52.34
526.35 487.90
1.15 511.92
1983 30.89
2610.09 49.97
400.74 507.78
0.83 444.17
1984 31.12
2558.87 51.91
585.47 640.15
0.89 626.08
1985 32.02
2562.75 53.53
508.00 710.45
1.00 713.08
1986 30.24
2472.22 50.19
271.50 461.45
1.10 417.75
1987 29.52
2383.48 47.42
384.44 409.04
1.11 385.28
1988 30.91
2377.60 46.33
400.91 511.08
0.98 497.33
1989 31.64
2430.69 50.88
347.08 824.22
0.95 862.79
1990 30.71
2396.52 50.37
343.23 923.87
1.09 826.56
1991 29.94
2180.25 57.48
448.23 1123.38
1.11 1242.21
1992 26.90
2042.08 58.60
524.27 857.69
1.08 1057.57
1993 26.74
2018.41 64.82
448.05 845.55
0.98 763.33
1994 25.00
1947.33 60.51
525.69 739.89
1.03 843.51
1995 25.36
1899.37 56.74
598.89 654.06
1.04 651.54
1996 24.76
1875.07 56.89
571.79 655.05
1.10 858.64
1997 25.26
1829.25 54.41
550.89 694.31
1.07 657.35
1998 24.91
1700.91 54.59
733.97 722.20
1.03 731.45
1999 23.70
1732.48 54.43
526.43 572.02
0.98 586.08
2000 23.11
1768.07 54.62
378.00 439.74
0.96 465.61
2001 20.80
1781.28 55.31
419.70 511.34
1.07 615.94
2002 21.83
1783.32 54.58
504.00 573.13
1.02 782.56
2003 24.34
1845.13 50.39
540.28 684.69
1.01 668.17
2004 23.61
1955.14 47.24
529.72 653.42
1.03 585.27
2005 14.83
2077.54 44.10
422.63 535.76
1.00 434.55
2006 14.81
2193.53 42.82
379.47 475.85
0.94 685.07
2007 13.98
2285.92 36.74
342.77 433.15
0.59 627.24
2008 12.44
2279.77 35.68
441.44 510.92
0.70 570.35
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun POPP
IPP CSP
MSP TMSP
ERP HMSP
1980 82.43
3618.54 231.00
226.00 38.35
60.09 528.30
1981 84.87
3670.55 266.00
273.00 38.12
53.71 531.96
1982 87.38
3805.23 337.00
349.00 37.28
60.69 526.35
1983 89.89
3860.30 332.00
328.00 36.75
63.18 400.74
1984 92.40
3859.00 456.00
466.00 36.76
63.77 628.54
1985 94.93
3942.29 562.00
692.00 35.40
68.47 636.37
1986 97.50
3998.84 528.00
378.00 34.63
69.14 382.14
1987 100.09
4076.26 450.00
455.00 32.07
69.03 287.56
1988 102.71
4062.93 482.00
484.00 32.59
65.62 370.87
1989 105.35
4000.76 577.00
633.00 32.75
69.43 450.57
1990 108.40
3868.13 800.00
777.00 31.73
67.28 352.32
1991 110.80
3696.37 900.00
935.00 31.12
65.99 399.71
1992 114.08
3619.18 899.00
884.00 30.81
63.50 447.38
1993 117.02
3320.25 1100.00
1060.00 29.05
64.71 591.18
1994 119.99
3052.35 1200.00
1210.00 28.11
62.62 401.88
1995 122.99
2840.32 965.00
1015.00 27.28
57.71 675.25
1996 126.00
2683.67 1060.00
1070.00 27.09
59.61 741.31
1997 129.04
2418.73 1114.00
1124.00 26.68
60.99 547.46
1998 132.09
2306.84 1051.00
981.00 25.96
62.91 715.09
1999 135.13
2277.52 1004.00
1039.00 24.46
66.38 824.05
2000 137.53
2283.80 1295.00
1295.00 23.87
68.93 434.38
2001 140.36
2259.83 1193.00
1174.00 21.87
77.14 376.96
2002 143.17
2249.27 1313.00
1317.00 22.62
72.03 424.95
2003 146.75
2284.03 1291.00
1271.00 21.09
67.68 542.60
2004 149.65
2271.92 1560.00
1565.00 18.64
63.54 516.82
2005 152.53
2231.04 1708.00
1703.00 18.38
59.51 457.92
2006 155.37
2224.44 2218.00
2218.00 18.23
55.85 361.64
2007 158.17
2206.65 1840.00
1840.00 16.75
52.31 395.87
2008 160.97
1878.64 2100.00
2100.00 15.42
50.41 435.17
Tahun RHMSPW
POPEU IPEU
CSEU CKEU
CREU CMEU
1980 1.10
402.52 20572.62
525.38 1428.20
458.51 938.72
1981 0.97
403.50 19968.99
616.67 1353.65
531.87 967.78
1982 1.15
404.37 22316.17
493.76 1692.13
635.32 1041.43
1983 0.83
404.98 21903.18
582.34 1219.45
651.28 973.54
1984 0.95
405.74 20694.49
471.26 1200.66
735.88 1092.04
1985 1.25
406.64 20544.49
485.71 1173.15
726.37 1113.54
1986 1.55
407.43 21676.86
808.55 1175.39
735.55 1159.06
1987 0.83
408.53 23198.27
760.89 1230.86
820.82 1291.01
1988 0.91
409.96 25288.89
956.93 1381.14
887.43 1393.02
1989 1.24
412.42 25462.03
1002.51 1135.00
945.43 1322.67
1990 1.12
414.27 25061.65
1161.53 1333.28
772.27 1457.30
1991 0.99
415.98 24500.24
1382.13 1665.29
891.47 1541.35
1992 0.92
417.07 24215.76
1488.24 1510.09
1240.19 1577.96
1993 1.29
417.81 24464.34
1292.51 1555.70
960.53 1605.70
1994 0.78
418.53 25069.69
1499.84 1655.01
896.83 1552.47
1995 1.17
419.13 25079.54
1248.68 1757.27
1072.33 1639.18
1996 1.42
419.62 25292.53
1418.55 1650.41
1160.10 1655.83
1997 1.07
419.97 25651.11
1369.85 1420.08
1378.44 1753.35
1998 1.01
420.74 25856.38
1712.20 1472.50
1507.30 1695.14
1999 1.54
421.71 26689.34
1657.17 1423.26
1667.00 1813.64
2000 1.10
422.59 27138.65
2078.72 1507.73
2248.90 1881.54
2001 0.96
423.96 27346.07
2668.28 1762.87
2354.14 1908.09
2002 0.86
425.17 27238.48
2721.52 1680.27
2100.65 1977.67
2003 1.02
426.46 26814.75
2709.81 1834.19
2490.73 1957.36
2004 1.01
428.47 26261.79
2543.58 1642.35
2416.18 2006.73
2005 1.09
430.08 26900.00
2643.14 1636.48
2492.57 2045.17
2006 0.90
432.01 27494.57
2749.59 1654.15
2368.97 2068.71
2007 0.69
434.01 28644.51
2847.36 1645.91
2453.66 2099.70
2008 0.69
435.38 30330.86
2950.56 1637.68
2476.19 2130.69
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun MSEU
MKEU MREU
MMEU LMSEU
TMSEU TMKEU
1980 916.05
654.21 239.33
382.47 27.29
26.63 1981
775.85 617.33
295.60 353.41
916.05 27.29
24.88 1982
815.88 681.63
385.82 525.32
775.85 24.00
22.75 1983
962.92 628.11
448.57 419.95
815.88 23.21
21.50 1984
798.47 643.21
412.88 569.27
962.92 26.29
24.63 1985
916.15 649.46
529.91 582.70
798.47 26.86
26.13 1986
1320.16 599.95
552.29 605.41
916.15 28.00
27.25 1987
1246.17 653.12
538.30 527.68
1320.16 26.00
25.25 1988
1314.63 634.51
548.72 571.61
1246.17 24.29
23.75 1989
1480.80 623.97
538.16 639.25
1314.63 25.14
26.13 1990
1749.05 634.00
453.48 819.55
1480.80 21.57
24.88 1991
2039.64 686.99
592.18 766.27
1749.05 21.21
24.25 1992
2035.36 640.93
679.96 727.02
2039.64 21.36
24.13 1993
2102.42 513.07
709.10 821.03
2035.36 21.64
25.88 1994
2400.27 519.68
799.47 823.57
2102.42 21.43
24.75 1995
2198.20 482.63
796.37 785.12
2400.27 22.64
24.75 1996
2311.92 472.90
999.41 777.07
2198.20 21.36
25.25 1997
2400.51 556.52
1294.74 978.16
2311.92 23.00
26.38 1998
2739.70 647.98
1254.56 1092.47
2400.51 20.84
25.41 1999
2821.07 600.75
1393.23 1023.41
2739.70 20.50
25.46 2000
3022.06 600.17
1393.84 915.90
2821.07 20.17
25.50 2001
3688.46 660.23
1623.31 1032.44
3022.06 19.83
25.55 2002
3812.22 757.61
1546.05 1556.38
3688.46 19.49
25.60 2003
4109.96 765.74
1276.76 1535.10
3812.22 19.16
25.65 2004
4753.17 743.70
1379.15 1515.77
4109.96 18.82
25.70 2005
5531.79 925.23
1885.63 1966.25
4753.17 18.49
25.75 2006
5946.33 1681.65
2951.97 2430.03
5531.79 18.15
25.79 2007
6187.36 1799.84
2724.94 2438.39
5946.33 17.81
25.84 2008
6191.31 1808.55
2919.48 2384.55
6187.36 17.48
25.89
Tahun TMREU
TMMEU EREU
HMSEU HMKEU
HMREU HMMEU
1980 27.50
27.33 3.09
523.32 534.19
528.47 594.98
1981 26.00
26.83 2.86
571.58 542.73
516.05 697.01
1982 23.50
23.25 2.69
520.47 506.05
483.53 641.39
1983 23.10
22.50 2.33
447.08 502.40
478.96 556.77
1984 26.10
26.00 2.03
654.99 661.99
650.64 747.89
1985 27.10
27.00 1.93
628.24 678.79
650.72 757.35
1986 27.90
27.75 2.00
355.62 441.80
418.63 492.72
1987 25.90
25.42 1.84
369.40 398.46
378.74 464.93
1988 24.00
23.50 1.68
440.54 451.70
426.57 523.00
1989 25.80
25.33 1.66
457.58 512.00
495.45 622.47
1990 24.70
23.00 1.44
426.11 552.63
558.59 659.04
1991 23.60
22.42 1.48
449.71 594.73
571.16 705.99
1992 23.40
22.83 1.52
530.93 621.69
634.59 679.23
1993 24.40
23.92 1.24
523.34 588.40
624.15 672.93
1994 24.20
23.58 1.01
483.88 616.78
625.87 696.23
1995 24.00
23.00 0.91
633.02 650.39
643.33 713.71
1996 23.50
22.08 1.03
575.76 635.18
632.27 694.29
1997 24.50
23.83 0.90
538.45 548.94
570.10 605.26
1998 23.64
22.44 0.83
688.62 721.69
766.62 789.91
1999 23.50
22.23 1.07
651.57 656.46
685.48 790.24
2000 23.36
22.02 1.21
478.55 503.63
549.36 613.54
2001 23.22
21.81 1.22
448.92 541.96
593.77 707.46
2002 23.08
21.61 1.13
528.30 576.22
662.08 802.56
2003 22.94
21.40 0.93
593.03 728.77
834.45 817.30
2004 22.81
21.19 0.82
601.18 735.03
843.27 808.19
2005 22.67
20.98 0.80
498.04 605.91
739.05 755.33
2006 22.53
20.77 0.78
448.09 532.95
678.89 600.36
2007 22.39
20.56 0.70
547.85 617.34
696.25 690.27
2008 22.25
20.35 0.63
561.92 570.53
646.69 653.09
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun RHMKEUW
RHMREUW RHMMEUW
RHMSEUHCOW POPIR
PRODKIR PRODMIR
1980 1.03
1.09 1.09
9.23 38.35
8.00 7.54
1981 1.10
1.14 1.12
10.11 40.85
10.00 9.77
1982 1.09
1.07 1.17
9.14 42.48
17.40 7.31
1983 0.99
1.14 1.01
8.15 44.18
21.70 7.53
1984 1.02
1.03 1.09
11.92 45.96
18.30 6.86
1985 1.17
1.09 1.24
11.52 47.82
26.30 10.24
1986 1.37
1.29 1.40
6.26 49.44
16.20 8.43
1987 1.28
1.26 1.37
6.57 50.66
9.50 8.13
1988 1.15
1.05 1.29
7.64 51.91
15.50 9.18
1989 1.30
1.12 1.42
7.80 53.19
14.10 6.84
1990 1.32
1.22 1.44
7.49 54.50
15.00 21.56
1991 1.10
1.16 1.25
7.41 55.84
9.70 8.62
1992 1.18
1.23 1.22
9.21 61.56
17.00 15.97
1993 1.01
1.10 1.03
8.92 61.00
18.00 17.22
1994 1.03
1.05 1.13
8.41 61.89
18.70 21.53
1995 1.13
1.14 1.12
11.08 64.10
20.90 12.02
1996 1.17
1.16 1.23
9.92 62.51
22.80 16.48
1997 1.03
1.07 1.11
9.44 60.93
17.50 17.76
1998 1.09
1.15 1.02
11.73 61.84
41.30 20.08
1999 1.25
1.32 1.27
11.37 62.51
70.90 16.99
2000 1.17
1.24 1.23
8.34 63.66
104.60 15.03
2001 1.12
1.08 1.07
7.89 64.83
104.90 14.98
2002 1.00
1.08 1.06
9.44 65.54
112.60 17.80
2003 1.09
1.16 1.15
10.34 66.48
119.80 19.00
2004 1.09
1.13 1.08
10.25 67.48
159.10 17.90
2005 1.11
1.10 1.12
8.80 68.47
202.70 18.20
2006 1.05
1.01 1.08
8.18 70.47
192.10 18.30
2007 0.95
0.97 0.91
10.12 71.66
185.30 18.30
2008 0.69
0.74 0.66
10.21 72.87
209.50 18.60
Tahun CKIR
CMIR MKIR
MMIR TMKIR
TMMIR IPIR
1980 343.00
5.00 322.00
5.00 36.00
47.17 264324.06
1981 306.00
65.00 285.00
65.00 35.59
46.16 235754.29
1982 367.00
25.00 346.00
25.00 33.49
45.77 231848.26
1983 347.00
60.00 331.00
60.00 33.39
45.39 213466.78
1984 405.00
75.00 382.00
75.00 33.66
43.62 195476.14
1985 339.00
57.00 325.00
57.00 34.37
39.99 193194.32
1986 475.00
14.00 461.00
14.00 72.43
39.34 146200.96
1987 302.00
13.00 293.00
13.00 70.83
35.32 111702.28
1988 390.00
39.00 375.00
39.00 41.06
40.29 75311.16
1989 566.00
175.00 552.00
175.00 42.05
40.71 66207.08
1990 431.00
50.00 417.00
50.00 56.32
30.57 74580.35
1991 505.00
65.00 494.00
65.00 58.10
32.94 72453.37
1992 449.00
51.00 433.00
51.00 52.83
32.45 55751.31
1993 516.00
385.00 494.00
500.00 52.55
34.23 46698.67
1994 392.00
380.00 500.00
430.00 53.75
34.42 35627.59
1995 362.00
410.00 500.00
430.00 51.51
33.80 24087.22
1996 361.00
190.00 401.00
200.00 50.78
31.48 20907.82
1997 627.00
196.00 700.00
175.00 50.66
34.20 19231.11
1998 812.00
210.00 960.00
200.00 50.33
33.01 16702.31
1999 624.00
142.00 604.00
150.00 48.54
29.80 14233.59
2000 674.00
78.00 729.00
94.00 46.70
28.16 13115.86
2001 794.00
60.00 835.00
64.00 47.46
27.67 12270.56
2002 816.00
22.00 959.00
10.00 46.01
27.87 11591.02
2003 813.00
44.00 735.00
32.00 24.22
22.88 10741.75
2004 804.00
105.00 741.00
93.00 23.12
21.74 9944.87
2005 775.00
226.00 600.00
213.00 18.03
18.28 9268.02
2006 725.00
34.00 606.00
21.00 17.04
18.18 8791.73
2007 685.00
193.00 545.00
180.00 14.48
14.52 8181.16
2008 694.00
188.00 580.00
168.00 14.66
13.94 6709.12
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun ERIR
HMKIR HMMIR
RHMKIRW RHMMIRW
POPMS LPOPMS
1980 6282.89
600.24 553.45
1.16 1.01
40.55 1981
5611.09 651.12
579.01 1.32
0.93 41.71
40.55 1982
5045.86 554.89
686.64 1.19
1.25 42.85
41.71 1983
4352.91 534.81
620.11 1.05
1.12 44.02
42.85 1984
4032.32 697.41
662.54 1.07
0.96 45.24
44.02 1985
3906.62 700.12
475.63 1.20
0.78 46.55
45.24 1986
2853.38 306.63
439.23 0.95
1.25 47.75
46.55 1987
2013.61 450.91
682.07 1.45
2.01 48.80
47.75 1988
1504.12 496.68
661.67 1.26
1.64 49.80
48.80 1989
1288.99 398.51
867.80 1.01
1.98 50.90
49.80 1990
1132.47 495.85
607.40 1.19
1.33 51.36
50.90 1991
958.47 579.94
718.69 1.08
1.28 52.42
51.36 1992
739.81 691.90
761.81 1.31
1.37 53.51
52.42 1993
11804.92 737.75
765.27 1.27
1.17 54.62
53.51 1994
12387.96 597.20
686.23 1.00
1.11 55.75
54.62 1995
8273.72 736.13
672.43 1.28
1.05 56.90
55.75 1996
6427.27 784.56
602.57 1.45
1.07 58.20
56.90 1997
5483.80 559.82
721.69 1.05
1.32 59.40
58.20 1998
4649.75 771.53
702.83 1.16
0.91 60.70
59.40 1999
3874.88 601.59
721.46 1.15
1.16 62.00
60.70 2000
3407.06 487.67
553.14 1.13
1.11 63.30
62.00 2001
3043.00 501.48
592.23 1.03
0.89 64.70
63.30 2002
10472.48 515.83
738.63 0.89
0.98 66.00
64.70 2003
10666.60 670.33
759.26 1.01
1.06 67.30
66.00 2004
9771.11 667.49
730.13 0.99
0.98 68.60
67.30 2005
8963.96 528.44
694.82 0.97
1.03 70.00
68.60 2006
8192.73 474.70
520.63 0.94
0.94 71.30
70.00 2007
7073.62 592.79
561.33 0.91
0.74 73.60
71.30 2008
5723.59 564.94
568.90 0.68
0.57 75.20
73.60
Tahun PRODMMS
CMMS MMMS
LMMMS TMMMS
IPMS ERMS
1980 1.94
47.00 47.00
39.56 15682.40
8.49 1981
1.81 27.00
27.00 47.00
38.21 15780.12
7.86 1982
3.14 85.00
85.00 27.00
37.70 15995.52
7.19 1983
2.34 120.00
120.00 85.00
37.18 15194.64
6.20 1984
3.11 230.00
230.00 120.00
34.83 15061.89
5.63 1985
3.33 240.00
240.00 230.00
36.65 14311.71
4.98 1986
3.75 265.00
265.00 240.00
35.78 12736.51
4.24 1987
2.56 275.00
275.00 265.00
30.43 11765.54
3.73 1988
6.71 222.00
220.00 275.00
30.39 9822.98
2.96 1989
3.80 227.00
225.00 220.00
30.95 8070.23
3.65 1990
6.10 284.00
270.00 225.00
30.76 7279.66
5.68 1991
16.60 193.00
186.00 270.00
30.58 6394.04
8.03 1992
11.89 209.00
200.00 186.00
29.94 5736.99
7.18 1993
11.00 194.00
180.00 200.00
28.97 5445.74
6.68 1994
16.20 295.00
280.00 180.00
29.23 5425.43
6.42 1995
22.20 153.00
138.00 280.00
28.40 5332.62
6.04 1996
18.20 243.00
230.00 138.00
25.31 5144.05
5.57 1997
11.40 249.00
240.00 230.00
28.93 5215.15
5.35 1998
7.60 217.00
221.00 240.00
27.35 5473.81
5.27 1999
7.50 134.00
133.00 221.00
23.07 5718.54
5.25 2000
8.40 90.00
79.00 133.00
20.88 5924.34
5.59 2001
7.60 111.00
110.00 79.00
20.22 6073.34
6.73 2002
8.00 88.00
88.00 110.00
20.49 5868.82
6.34 2003
6.80 158.00
158.00 88.00
17.17 5303.81
7.58 2004
7.50 194.00
194.00 158.00
15.66 4752.08
6.45 2005
9.10 235.00
234.00 194.00
17.74 4762.12
5.73 2006
7.80 314.00
313.00 234.00
17.61 4819.18
5.33 2007
8.40 215.00
214.00 313.00
12.72 4676.95
4.68 2008
7.20 334.00
333.00 214.00
11.96 4136.33
3.86
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun HMMMS
RHMMMSW PRODKC
PRODRC XSRW
XSW MSRW
1980 601.84
1.10 610.00
804.30 969.90
3616.64 1613.84
1981 672.92
1.08 715.00
1016.05 660.91
3228.45 1570.58
1982 665.53
1.21 820.20
1330.00 773.85
3776.08 1717.17
1983 499.90
0.91 841.80
1417.50 696.77
4016.52 1851.88
1984 660.90
0.96 791.90
1470.00 1111.23
4317.58 1691.95
1985 728.46
1.19 768.00
1575.00 1354.69
5221.48 2155.39
1986 857.18
2.44 846.00
1610.00 1253.75
6242.04 2925.77
1987 432.41
1.28 920.00
1645.00 1006.89
5780.61 2475.37
1988 365.54
0.90 932.00
1525.30 953.00
5989.06 2353.73
1989 690.48
1.57 958.20
1498.00 1187.34
7048.16 2949.45
1990 714.83
1.57 920.30
2135.00 1319.44
8071.86 3301.12
1991 989.20
1.76 942.00
2065.00 1268.15
8212.86 3367.82
1992 968.57
1.74 895.00
2275.00 1374.65
8182.29 3774.95
1993 556.25
0.85 1304.00
2415.00 1529.87
9071.77 3997.54
1994 517.44
0.84 1336.80
2397.50 1755.02
10807.27 4212.54
1995 618.28
0.97 1263.00
2730.00 1675.50
10216.67 3976.07
1996 609.75
1.08 1570.00
2940.00 1816.25
11411.19 3833.15
1997 530.03
0.97 1923.00
2905.00 1916.14
12373.70 3609.41
1998 714.53
0.93 2242.00
2870.00 1685.27
10454.73 2355.83
1999 714.39
1.15 2333.40
3307.50 1849.85
13733.48 3176.95
2000 552.65
1.11 3204.10
3570.00 1911.19
14161.94 3117.71
2001 623.73
0.94 3772.40
3675.00 2157.56
17063.27 4679.72
2002 748.22
0.99 4122.60
4162.60 2034.54
18816.99 5208.92
2003 661.83
0.93 4923.60
3814.80 2621.95
21087.49 7504.29
2004 673.51
0.90 5181.70
4252.40 3096.68
23551.91 9212.07
2005 621.21
0.92 5893.80
4645.10 3195.79
26764.52 9914.09
2006 490.78
0.88 6345.00
4752.50 3647.60
29951.19 12092.98
2007 544.41
0.72 6552.30
4348.10 3445.00
29842.00 11432.20
2008 553.82
0.56 6750.00
4250.00 3724.00
33749.00 14748.11
Tahun MSW
XKRW XKW
MKRW MKW
XRRW XRW
1980 3411.59
1160.07 3196.07
1479.65 3215.16
491.35 689.35
1981 3223.57
1454.35 3489.35
1829.89 3246.57
685.48 848.48
1982 3688.06
1242.54 3405.54
2164.43 3777.36
704.95 815.95
1983 3918.36
1392.90 3652.90
1882.06 3665.80
654.97 831.97
1984 3902.16
1824.85 4040.85
2584.34 4019.71
845.33 1082.33
1985 4875.00
1892.20 3503.20
2173.96 3440.08
1161.27 1326.27
1986 6004.81
700.62 2993.62
1377.59 2980.52
1097.48 1403.48
1987 5804.38
1523.74 4014.74
2160.20 3940.04
1328.77 1664.77
1988 5739.45
1526.82 3916.82
2283.11 3819.33
1737.75 1949.75
1989 6647.65
1082.12 3771.12
2441.73 4072.76
1805.87 1958.87
1990 7847.02
1894.89 3738.89
2016.31 3617.42
1763.38 1969.38
1991 7730.47
1270.01 3618.01
1851.38 3430.34
1812.43 2104.43
1992 7722.59
1526.91 4257.91
2606.79 3946.57
1570.31 1945.31
1993 8338.06
369.28 4038.28
2137.69 4122.69
1614.26 2063.26
1994 9713.23
962.41 5367.41
2780.69 4924.57
2133.16 2627.16
1995 9619.17
2786.88 6253.88
3156.40 5697.36
1980.17 2597.17
1996 9699.99
1254.91 5023.91
3343.70 5564.91
1817.93 2646.93
1997 9906.53
1540.84 6894.84
3809.95 6570.48
1646.87 2698.87
1998 10356.91
2240.35 7920.35
3539.97 6839.11
2144.04 3054.04
1999 11935.89
3478.60 8073.60
4732.27 7606.09
2060.76 2962.76
2000 13357.58
1443.88 7205.88
3836.00 6893.64
1811.46 2635.46
2001 15347.14
1643.00 8525.00
4317.90 8175.97
1914.38 2569.38
2002 17430.38
1581.64 9258.64
5019.06 8840.23
2131.38 2733.38
2003 20463.51
2850.95 10252.95
5056.04 9389.59
1160.31 2268.31
2004 23308.09
1399.39 9778.39
3599.77 9674.07
1484.32 2577.32
2005 24789.21
2147.34 10650.34
5124.22 10111.45
1872.19 3179.19
2006 29545.51
1599.96 11485.96
5165.91 10400.82
2546.70 4097.70
2007 29489.00
3850.89 12400.89
5415.82 11898.94
2777.09 4213.09
2008 33908.00
2113.00 10110.00
4589.62 10686.00
2726.87 4236.87
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Tahun MRRW
MRW XMRW
XMW MMRW
MMW
1980 465.17
711.15 906.14
1113.14 519.64
954.11 1981
488.19 798.17
666.84 1101.84
653.73 1099.14
1982 413.23
815.07 595.25
1251.25 442.77
1078.09 1983
450.28 920.46
1079.42 1639.42
739.45 1393.40
1984 525.52
956.10 777.57
1662.57 802.35
1676.62 1985
718.03 1294.34
793.81 1858.81
956.25 1835.95
1986 758.49
1420.94 1513.25
2115.25 1088.73
1973.14 1987
907.62 1678.63
1298.70 1997.70
1109.27 2003.95
1988 785.48
1615.58 1436.13
2361.13 1431.55
2262.16 1989
791.71 2134.03
1200.77 2362.77
1434.25 2473.50
1990 766.02
2085.53 1475.77
2650.77 1450.73
2590.28 1991
823.86 2073.94
1446.38 2496.38
1517.35 2534.62
1992 640.87
1910.10 1879.71
2654.71 1685.47
2663.49 1993
529.27 1801.55
1286.26 2206.26
695.00 2196.03
1994 585.59
2361.71 948.94
2504.94 985.12
2588.69 1995
571.29 2497.07
2160.14 3670.14
2102.85 3535.97
1996 570.02
2390.55 1337.92
3059.92 1779.46
3406.53 1997
475.33 2629.41
2695.68 4289.68
2417.65 3935.81
1998 771.67
2824.48 1656.54
3510.54 1768.77
3832.25 1999
677.75 2707.21
2251.79 3795.79
1783.84 3660.25
2000 517.86
2576.22 2795.95
3799.95 2022.13
3566.03 2001
319.67 2520.57
1907.56 3064.56
1844.64 3054.08
2002 484.32
2571.64 2093.07
2991.07 1231.75
2987.13 2003
178.27 2178.63
2387.60 3394.60
1763.12 3567.21
2004 415.78
2688.78 2338.22
3514.22 1782.21
3587.98 2005
186.10 3004.69
2785.95 4006.95
1427.98 3954.22
2006 337.33
4068.80 4490.87
5343.87 2271.04
5187.07 2007
124.11 4266.57
3510.70 4729.70
1647.26 4652.65
2008 348.36
4768.97 2850.00
3890.00 935.45
3890.00
Tahun HSW
HKW HRW
HMW HCOW
1980 479.38
517.20 485.14
547.63 56.72
1981 549.09
495.05 453.55
624.36 56.55
1982 458.33
465.54 451.12
550.00 56.92
1983 482.02
507.03 419.48
551.29 54.86
1984 660.61
649.74 630.71
687.80 54.93
1985 509.17
581.33 595.56
611.82 54.55
1986 246.50
322.28 324.20
351.05 56.85
1987 346.19
310.86 299.76
339.12 56.23
1988 408.02
393.09 406.20
404.29 57.68
1989 363.55
393.68 441.46
439.38 58.63
1990 315.11
417.25 458.54
456.36 56.86
1991 402.81
539.46 491.93
563.23 60.71
1992 485.90
529.06 517.96
557.42 57.65
1993 458.44
582.14 565.16
654.91 58.64
1994 512.39
597.78 597.78
617.19 57.57
1995 578.48
575.71 565.58
638.35 57.13
1996 521.31
541.93 544.87
565.49 58.02
1997 512.79
530.64 530.64
545.66 57.06
1998 710.80
663.13 665.25
771.18 58.70
1999 535.66
524.60 519.69
622.89 57.31
2000 394.83
430.49 441.95
499.27 57.38
2001 392.32
485.59 551.44
663.92 56.86
2002 495.15
576.40 615.76
754.15 55.95
2003 532.94
666.48 721.82
713.40 57.37
2004 514.19
672.48 747.81
746.72 58.62
2005 422.00
545.00 669.00
677.00 56.59
2006 403.72
505.92 670.61
555.75 54.80
2007 577.83
652.65 718.59
757.11 54.16
2008 626.39
830.34 877.20
989.41 55.02
Lampiran 6. Program Estimasi Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER;
DATA TESIS;
SET ANALISIS;
PROC SYSLIN 2
SLS DATA
=TESIS OUTEST
=HASIL1; ENDOGENOUS
HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB
HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA
HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU
MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR
MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA
;
INSTRUMENTS TREN PRODCOW POPW LHSW LHRW LHMW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW
XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI RHESIW ERI PESI LPOPI LHCPI STOKSI LYIESIN LYIESIS LHESI LHDSI
L3LASIN L3LASIS L3LASIR DLASMIR ERM PRODSM STOKSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB LHEKB LHDKB PEMA ERA
PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA LHEKA LHDKA LCMA LXKA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA
STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA LXKUSA PRODRCD SERCD LHERCD LHDRCD LXRCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS
LPOPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU LMSEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC LMRC TMSID TMKID PRODKID
ERID POPID LCSID TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR RCCOW RHESIW RLASMSIR RHEDKB RHEDMA RHEDKA RHEDKUSA
RHEDRCD RHDRCDW RHMSPW RHMKEUW RHMREUW RHMMEUW RHMSEUHCOW RHMSIDW RHMKIRW RHMMIRW RHMMMSW
;
HARGA_SW : MODEL
HSW = XSW MSW LHSW
DW ;
HARGA_KW : MODEL
HKW = XKW MKW LHKW
DW ;
HARGA_RW : MODEL
HRW = XRW MRW LHRW
DW ;
HARGA_MW : MODEL
HMW = XMW MMW
DW ;
LSM_PBN : MODEL
LASMIN = LHESI RHCPI L3LASIN DW NOINT
; LSM_PBS :
MODEL LASMIS = LHESI RHCPI USPI L3LASIS
DW ;
LSM_PR : MODEL
LASMIR = LHDSI USPI LLASIR DW
; YIELD_PBN :
MODEL YIESIN = HESI RHCPI DLASMIN LYIESIN
DW NOINT ;
YIELD_PBS : MODEL
YIESIS = HESI DLASMIS LYIESIS DW NOINT
; YIELD_PR :
MODEL YIESIR = HDSI LHDSI RHCPI DLASMIR LYIESIR
DW NOINT ;
HARGA_XSI : MODEL
HESI = HSW ERI RXSI LHESI
DW NOINT ;
HARGA_DSI : MODEL
HDSI = HESI ERI RTSDSI LHDSI
DW NOINT DISAP_SI :
MODEL CSI = HDSI RHCOW POPI LCSI
DW ;
EKSPOR_SI : MODEL
XSI = HESI RHDSI ERI PESI SXSI DW NOINT
; HARGA_XSM :
MODEL HESM
= HSW ERM XSM LHESM DW
; EKSPOR_SM :
MODEL XSM = HESM PESM STOKSM PRODSM LXSM
DW NOINT ;
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
HARGA_XKB :
MODEL HEKB
= HKW ERB PEKB LHEKB DW
; HARGA_DKB :
MODEL HDKB = HEKB SDKB CKB
DW NOINT ;
DISAPPR_KB : MODEL
CKB = HDKB RRHDKBRHCOW POPB LCKB
DW ;
EKSPOR_KB : MODEL
XKB = HEKB HDKB ERB PRODKB LXKB
DW ;
HARGA_DKA : MODEL
HDKA = HEKA RSDCKA LHDKA DW
; HARGA_XKA :
MODEL HEKA
= HKW ERA XKA LHEKA DW
; DISAPPR_KA :
MODEL CKA
= RHDKA RHCOW POPA DW
; EKSPOR_KA :
MODEL XKA
= HEKA HDKA ERA PRODKA DW NOINT
; HARGA_XMA :
MODEL HEMA = HMW LHEMA
DW ;
HARGA_DMA : MODEL
HDMA = HEMA SDMA CMA LHDMA DW NOINT
; EKSPOR_MA :
MODEL XMA = HEMA HDMA PEMA PRODMA LXMA
DW ;
DISAPPR_MA : MODEL
CMA = RHDMKA HCOW POPA
DW NOINT ;
HARGA_XKUSA : MODEL
HEKUSA = HKW SEKUSA DW
; HARGA_DKUSA :
MODEL HDKUSA = HEKUSA SDKUSA CKUSA
DW NOINT ;
DISAPPR_KUSA: MODEL
CKUSA = RHDKUSAHCOW HDRUSA POPUSA DW NOINT
; EKSPOR_KUSA :
MODEL XKUSA = RHEKUSA HDKUSA PRODKUSA
DW ;
HARGA_XRUSA : MODEL
HERUSA = HRW SERUSA XRUSA DW NOINT
; HARGA_MRUSA :
MODEL HMRUSA = HRW TMRUSA
DW NOINT ;
HARGA_DRUSA : MODEL
HDRUSA = HERUSA HMRUSA SDRUSA CRUSA DW
; DISAPPR_RUSA:
MODEL CRUSA = HDRUSA RHDRUSAHCOW HDKUSA POPUSA
DW ;
IMPOR_RUSA : MODEL
MRUSA = HMRUSA STOKRUSA CRUSA LMRUSA DW
; EKSPOR_RUSA :
MODEL XRUSA = HERUSA HDRUSA PRODRUSA
DW NOINT ;
HARGA_DRCD : MODEL
HDRCD = HERCD PRODRCD CRCD LHDRCD DW NOINT
; HARGA_XRCD :
MODEL HERCD = HRW SERCD XRCD LHERCD
DW NOINT ;
DISAPPR_RCD : MODEL
CRCD = HDRCD HCOW POPCD LCRCD DW
; EKSPOR_RCD :
MODEL XRCD
= RHERCD HDRCD PRODRCD LXRCD DW NOINT
; HARGA_MSP :
MODEL HMSP
= HSW LHMSP DW NOINT
; DISAPPR_SP :
MODEL CSP
= HMSP POPP LCSP DW
; IMPOR_SP :
MODEL MSP
= HMSP ERP TMSP RCSP LMSP DW
; HARGA_MMMS :
MODEL HMMMS = HMW TMMMS LHMMMS
DW NOINT ;
DISAPPR_MMS : MODEL
CMMS = HMMMS ERMS POPMS LCMMS
DW ;
IMPOR_MMS : MODEL
MMMS = RHMMMS ERMS RCMMS DW
; HARGA_MKEU :
MODEL HMKEU = HKW TMKEU
DW ;
DISAPPR_KEU : MODEL
CKEU = HMKEU HMREU HMMEU RHCOW IPEU LCKEU
DW NOINT ;
IMPOR_KEU : MODEL
MKEU = HMKEU EREU CKEU
DW NOINT ;
HARGA_MSEU : MODEL
HMSEU = HSW TMSEU DW
; DISAPPR_SEU :
MODEL CSEU
= HMSEU HMMEU RHCOW IPEU POPEU LCSEU DW
; IMPOR_SEU :
MODEL MSEU
= HMSEU CSEU LMSEU DW NOINT
; HARGA_MREU :
MODEL HMREU = HRW TMREU
DW NOINT ;
DISAPPR_REU : MODEL
CREU = HMREU HMSEU HCOW POPEU LCREU
DW ;
IMPOR_REU : MODEL
MREU = HMREU CREU
DW ;
HARGA_MMEU : MODEL
HMMEU = HMW TMMEU DW
; DISAPPR_MEU :
MODEL CMEU
= RHMMREU HMKEU IPEU DW
; IMPOR_MEU :
MODEL MMEU
= HMMEU PRODMEU CMEU LMMEU DW
; HARGA_MSC :
MODEL HMSC
= HSW TMSC DW NOINT
; DISAPPR_SC :
MODEL CSC = HMSC HMKC HMRC HCOW IPC POPC
DW ;
IMPOR_SC : MODEL
MSC = HMSC CSC
DW ;
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
HARGA_MKC : MODEL
HMKC = HKW TMKC
DW ;
DISAPPR_KC : MODEL
CKC = HMKC IPC POPC LCKC DW
; IMPOR_KC :
MODEL MKC
= HMKC CKC LMKC DW NOINT
; HARGA_MRC :
MODEL HMRC = HRW TMRC
DW ;
DISAPPR_RC : MODEL
CRC = HMRC HMKC IPC POPC LCRC DW
; IMPOR_RC :
MODEL MRC
= HMRC PRODRC CRC LMRC DW
; HARGA_MKID :
MODEL HMKID = HKW TMKID
DW NOINT ;
DISAPPR_KID : MODEL
CKID = HMKID HMSID HCOW POPID LCKID
DW ;
IMPOR_KID : MODEL
MKID = HMKID PRODKID CKID
DW ;
HARGA_MSID : MODEL
HMSID = HSW RCSID LHMSID DW
; DISAPPR_SID :
MODEL CSID
= HMSID IPID POPID DW
; IMPOR_SID :
MODEL MSID
= RRHMSIDRCSID TMSID ERID DW
; HARGA_MKIR :
MODEL HMKIR = HKW TMKIR
DW NOINT ;
DISAPPR_KIR : MODEL
CKIR = HMKIR HMMIR POPIR LCKIR
DW NOINT ;
IMPOR_KIR : MODEL
MKIR = HMKIR PRODKIR CKIR LMKIR
DW NOINT ;
HARGA_MMIR : MODEL
HMMIR = HMW TMMIR LHMMIR DW NOINT
; DISAPPR_MIR :
MODEL CMIR
= RHMMKIR POPIR LCMIR DW NOINT
; IMPOR_MIR :
MODEL MMIR
= HMMIR PRODMIR CMIR DW NOINT
; IDENTITY
PRODSI = PRODSI+ ;
IDENTITY XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW;
IDENTITY MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW;
IDENTITY XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW;
IDENTITY MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW;
IDENTITY XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW;
IDENTITY MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW;
IDENTITY XMW = XMA+XMRW;
IDENTITY MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW;
IDENTITY SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI;
IDENTITY SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI;
IDENTITY SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB;
IDENTITY SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA;
IDENTITY SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA;
IDENTITY SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA;
IDENTITY SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA;
PROC PRINT DATA
=HASIL1; RUN
;
Lampiran 7. Hasil Estimasi Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_SW Dependent Variable
HSW Label
H_SAWIT_W Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 67954.33 22651.44 2.27 0.1084 Error 22 219361.3 9970.969
Corrected Total 25 287315.7
Root MSE 99.85474 R-Square 0.23651 Dependent Mean 477.27302 Adj R-Sq 0.13240
Coeff Var 20.92193
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 241.8316 95.45324 2.53 0.0189 Intercept
XSW 1 -0.02120 0.030070
-0.71 0.4881 X_SWT_W MSW 1 0.023313 0.030170 0.77 0.4479 M_SWT_W
LHSW 1 0.474437 0.205034 2.31 0.0304 Durbin-Watson 1.614256
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.189365
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_KW Dependent Variable
HKW Label
H_KEDELAI_W Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 157888.0 52629.33 6.26 0.0031 Error 22 184911.1 8405.048
Corrected Total 25 342799.0
Root MSE 91.67905 R-Square 0.46058 Dependent Mean 539.42507 Adj R-Sq 0.38703
Coeff Var 16.99570
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 182.7619 96.43096 1.90 0.0713 Intercept
XKW 1 -0.03417 0.048740
-0.70 0.4906 X_KDL_W MKW 1 0.051413 0.052234 0.98 0.3357 M_KDL_W
LHKW 1 0.487471 0.200599 2.43 0.0237 Durbin-Watson 1.436794
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.235959
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_RW Dependent Variable
HRW Label
H_RAPE_W Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source
DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 258493.5 86164.50 10.03 0.0002
Error 22 188951.3 8588.694 Corrected Total 25
447444.8 Root MSE 92.67521 R-Square 0.57771
Dependent Mean 561.11280 Adj R-Sq 0.52013 Coeff Var 16.51632
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 143.6909 89.48107 1.61 0.1226 Intercept
XRW 1 -0.01026 0.109767
-0.09 0.9263 X_RAPE_W MRW 1 0.062441 0.104847 0.60 0.5576 M_RAPE_W
LHRW 1 0.539133 0.199119 2.71 0.0129 Durbin-Watson 1.624118
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.16493
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MW Dependent Variable
HMW Label
H_MTHR_W Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 132537.0 66268.50 3.91 0.0347 Error 23 390262.6 16967.94
Corrected Total 25 522799.6
Root MSE 130.26105 R-Square 0.25351 Dependent Mean 605.15934 Adj R-Sq
0.18860 Coeff Var 21.52508
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 380.0096 90.40906 4.20 0.0003 Intercept XMW 1
-0.15911 0.126640 -1.26 0.2216 X_MTHR_W
MMW 1 0.243896 0.138520 1.76 0.0916 M_MTHR_W Durbin-Watson 0.998888
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.373727
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
LSM_PBN Dependent Variable
LASMIN Label
L_TM_PBN Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 4462354 1487451 3441.04 .0001 Error 23 9942.176 432.2685
Uncorrected 26 4472296 Total
Root MSE 20.79107 R-Square 0.99778 Dependent Mean 396.02519 Adj R-Sq 0.99749
Coeff Var 5.24994 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
LHESI 1 0.089329 0.027552 3.24 0.0036 LAG HESI
RHCPI 1 -1.12078 0.433286
-2.59 0.0165 LAJU_H_PUPUK
L3LASIN 1 0.858698 0.024979 34.38 .0001
LAG3_LASIN Durbin-Watson 1.525538
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.197674
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
LSM_PBS Dependent Variable
LASMIS Label
L_TM_PBS Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 16400138 4100034 126.36 .0001 Error 21 681401.6 32447.69
Corrected Total 25 17081539
Root MSE 180.13243 R-Square 0.96011 Dependent Mean 869.73977 Adj R-Sq
0.95251 Coeff Var 20.71107
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 243.9014 355.1503 0.69 0.4998 Intercept
LHESI 1 0.116390 0.448355 0.26 0.7977 LAG HESI
RHCPI 1 -0.21126
3.780737 -0.06 0.9560
LAJU_H_PUPUK USPI 1
-0.43739 0.521472 -0.84 0.4110
UPAH_TK KBN L3LASIS 1 0.804695 0.036502 22.05 .0001
LAG3_LASIS Durbin-Watson 0.374684
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.732301
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LSM_PR
Dependent Variable LASMIR Label
L_TM_PR Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 11503976 3834659 899.01 .0001
Error 22 93839.51 4265.432 Corrected Total 25 11597815
Root MSE 65.31028 R-Square 0.99191 Dependent Mean 669.91000 Adj R-Sq 0.99081
Coeff Var 9.74911
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 72.46956 128.0829 0.57 0.5773 Intercept
LHDSI 1 0.013851 0.013267 1.04 0.3078 LAG_HDSI
USPI 1 -0.24278 0.184119
-1.32 0.2009 UPAH_TK KBN LLASIR 1 0.778981 0.020316 38.34 .0001
LAG LASIR Durbin-Watson 2.030672
Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09431
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YIELD_PBN
Dependent Variable YIESIN
Label YLD_PBN Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 364.5961 91.14902 733.91 .0001 Error 22 2.732325 0.124197
Uncorrected 26 367.3284 Total
Root MSE 0.35242 R-Square 0.99256 Dependent Mean 3.72508 Adj R-Sq 0.99121
Coeff Var 9.46062 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF
Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESI 1 0.000224 0.000882 0.25 0.8015 HE_SWT_INA
RHCPI 1 -0.00153 0.007647
-0.20 0.8433 LAJU_H_PUPUK
DLASMIN 1
-0.00406 0.002210 -1.84 0.0798
DELTA_LASMIN LYIESIN 1 0.992763 0.100255 9.90 .0001
LAG YIESIN Durbin-Watson 2.209886
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.11818
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YIELD_PBS
Dependent Variable YIESIS
Label YLD_PBS Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 339.9629 113.3210 624.47 .0001
Error 23 4.173775 0.181468 Uncorrected 26 344.1367
Total
Root MSE 0.42599 R-Square 0.98787 Dependent Mean 3.61407 Adj R-Sq 0.98629
Coeff Var 11.78703 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESI 1 0.001041 0.000877 1.19 0.2476
HE_SWT_INA DLASMIS 1
-0.00015 0.000771 -0.19 0.8524
DELTA_LASMIS LYIESIS 1 0.883280 0.098663 8.95 .0001
LAG YIESIS Durbin-Watson 2.399457
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.21781
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YIELD_PR
Dependent Variable YIESIR
Label YLD_PR
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model
5 154.4956 30.89913 67.36 .0001 Error 21 9.633225 0.458725
Uncorrected 26 164.1289 Total
Root MSE 0.67729 R-Square 0.94131 Dependent Mean 2.40150 Adj R-Sq 0.92733
Coeff Var 28.20291 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate
Error t Value Pr |t| Label HDSI 1 0.000087 0.000148 0.59 0.5628 HD_SWT_INA
LHDSI 1 0.000197 0.000160 1.23 0.2324 LAG HDSI RHCPI 1
-0.00817 0.016388 -0.50 0.6233 LAJU_H_PUPUK
DLASMIR 1 -0.00149 0.002078
-0.72 0.4804 DELTA_LASMIR LYIESIR 1 0.584751 0.184714 3.17 0.0047 LAG YIESIR
Durbin-Watson 2.644813 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.32769
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DSI
Dependent Variable HDSI
Label HD_SWT_INA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 4.6678E8 1.167E8 177.07 .0001
Error 22 14498523 659023.8 Uncorrected 26 4.8128E8
Total
Root MSE 811.80279 R-Square 0.96988 Dependent Mean 4124.32175 Adj R-Sq 0.96440
Coeff Var 19.68330 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HESI 1 4.662357 2.145936 2.17 0.0409 HE_SWT_INA
ERI 1 0.157079 0.073032 2.15 0.0427 RPUSD RTSDSI 1
-464.243 1139.079 -0.41 0.6875
LHDSI 1 0.300709 0.133291 2.26 0.0343 LAG HDSI
Durbin-Watson 1.817476 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.047879
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XSI
Dependent Variable HESI
Label HE_SWT_INA
Analysis of Variance Sum of
Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 4412009 1103002 937.12 .0001 Error 22 25894.30 1177.013
Uncorrected 26 4437904 Total
Root MSE 34.30763 R-Square 0.99417 Dependent Mean 404.29708 Adj R-Sq 0.99310
Coeff Var 8.48575 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HSW 1 0.745129 0.076309 9.76 .0001 H_SAWIT_W ERI 1
-0.00176 0.002146 -0.82 0.4202 RPUSD
RXSI 1 -11.0698 17.10209
-0.65 0.5241 LAJU XSI LHESI 1 0.167411 0.092343 1.81 0.0835 LAG HESI
Durbin-Watson 1.601501 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.161462
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_SI
Dependent Variable XSI
Label X_SWT_INA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 8.5625E8 1.7125E8 320.67 .0001
Error 21 11214757 534036.0 Uncorrected 26 8.6747E8
Total
Root MSE 730.77769 R-Square 0.98707 Dependent Mean 3974.61242 Adj R-Sq 0.98399
Coeff Var 18.38614 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HESI 1 1.405829 1.227851 1.14 0.2651 HE_SWT_INA RHDSI 1
-453.433 556.1400 -0.82 0.4240
LAJU HDSI ERI 1 0.008254 0.044068 0.19 0.8532
RPUSD PESI 1
-57.9413 19.82251 -2.92 0.0081 PE_SWT_INA
SXSI 1 0.896068 0.035660 25.13 .0001 SUPPLY_XSI
Durbin-Watson 1.925645 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.034592
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAP_SI
Dependent Variable CSI Label
C_SWT_INA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares
Square F Value Pr F Model 4 45682982 11420745 398.70 .0001
Error 21 601542.5 28644.88 Corrected Total 25 46284524
Root MSE 169.24798 R-Square 0.98700 Dependent Mean 2548.61538 Adj R-Sq 0.98453
Coeff Var 6.64078
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-3450.09 1447.592 -2.38 0.0267 Intercept
HDSI 1 -0.05438 0.041600
-1.31 0.2053 HD_SWT_INA RHCOW 1 961.7034 1336.360 0.72 0.4797
LAJU HCOW POPI 1 23.42292 9.189867 2.55 0.0187 POPULASI_INA
LCSI 1 0.695843 0.145896 4.77 0.0001 LAG CSI
Durbin-Watson 1.986525 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.11882
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XSM
Dependent Variable HESM
Label HE_SWT_MAS
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 255341.1 63835.27 24.74 .0001
Error 21 54182.37 2580.113 Corrected Total 25 309523.5
Root MSE 50.79481 R-Square 0.82495 Dependent Mean 433.45577 Adj R-Sq 0.79161
Coeff Var 11.71857
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept
1 15.75933 144.8625 0.11 0.9144 Intercept HSW 1 0.855158 0.106558 8.03 .0001 H_SAWIT_W
ERM 1 -14.0676 28.53421
-0.49 0.6271 RMUSD
XSM 1
-0.00528 0.003112 -1.70 0.1045 X_SWT_MAS
LHESM 1 0.244956 0.097682 2.51 0.0204 LAG HESM
Durbin-Watson 2.345653 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21571
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
EKSPOR_SM Dependent Variable
XSM Label
X_SWT_MAS Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 1.926E9 3.8521E8 881.01 .0001
Error 21 9181847 437230.8 Uncorrected 26 1.9352E9
Total
Root MSE 661.23430 R-Square 0.99526 Dependent Mean 7815.82842 Adj R-Sq 0.99413
Coeff Var 8.46019 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESM 1 0.069857 1.229855 0.06 0.9552 HE_SWT_MAS
PESM 1 -6.67733 32.51640
-0.21 0.8393 PE_SWT_MAS
STOKSM 1 0.812459 0.736158 1.10 0.2822 STOK_SWT_MAS PRODSM 1 0.388918 0.187560 2.07 0.0506 PROD_SWT_MAS
LXSM 1 0.465425 0.221681 2.10 0.0480
LAG XSM Durbin-Watson 2.915638
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.4754
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_XKB Dependent Variable
HEKB Label
HE_KDL_BRL Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 118047.9 29511.97 2.25 0.0978 Error 21 275187.1 13104.15
Corrected Total 25 393235.0
Root MSE 114.47334 R-Square 0.30020 Dependent Mean 590.04818 Adj R-Sq 0.16690
Coeff Var 19.40068
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 351.7565 211.2894 1.66 0.1108 Intercept HKW 1 0.110846 0.419975
0.26 0.7944 H_KEDELAI_W ERB 1
-6.46154 33.42482 -0.19 0.8486
BRLUSD PEKB 1
-3.66984 6.616058 -0.55 0.5850 PE_KDL_BRL
LHEKB 1 0.454223 0.387453 1.17 0.2542 LAG HEKB
Durbin-Watson 1.410679 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.156338
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_DKB Dependent Variable
HDKB Label
HD_KDL_BRL Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 3321640 1107213 41.79 .0001 Error 23 609337.7 26492.94
Uncorrected 26 3930977 Total
Root MSE 162.76653 R-Square 0.84499 Dependent Mean 370.24753 Adj R-Sq 0.82477
Coeff Var 43.96154 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HEKB 1 0.507638 0.215462 2.36 0.0274 HE_KDL_BRL SDKB 1
-0.14320 0.292086 -0.49 0.6286
SD_KDL_BRL CKB 1 0.169727 0.325410 0.52 0.6070 C_KDL_BRL
Durbin-Watson 0.653267 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.664994
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KB
Dependent Variable CKB
Label C_KDL_BRL
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 9860452 2465113 130.52 .0001
Error 21 396612.4 18886.31 Corrected Total 25 10257064
Root MSE 137.42745 R-Square 0.96133 Dependent Mean 2620.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.95397
Coeff Var 5.24532
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-903.105 574.6626 -1.57 0.1310 Intercept
HDKB 1 -0.19697 0.321640
-0.61 0.5469 HD_KDL_BRL RRHDKBRHCOW 1
-2.17634 0.799880 -2.72 0.0128
POPB 1 11.50532 5.819621 1.98 0.0613 POPULASI_BRL LCKB 1 0.683214 0.180003 3.80 0.0011
LAG CKB Durbin-Watson 1.784028
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.099466
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
EKSPOR_KB Dependent Variable
XKB Label
X_KDL_BRL Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 11495418 2299084 42.50 .0001 Error 20 1081836 54091.79
Corrected Total 25 12577254
Root MSE 232.57642 R-Square 0.91398 Dependent Mean 1452.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.89248
Coeff Var 16.01766
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-723.471 386.7685 -1.87 0.0761 Intercept
HEKB 1 0.229701 0.399013 0.58 0.5713 HE_KDL_BRL HDKB 1
-0.41627 0.469886 -0.89 0.3862 HD_KDL_BRL
ERB 1 100.4155 67.94557 1.48 0.1550 BRLUSD
PRODKB 1 0.440950 0.090360 4.88 .0001 PROD_KDL_BRL LXKB 1 0.116749 0.164151 0.71 0.4852
LAG XKB Durbin-Watson 1.693249
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.0918
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_XKA Dependent Variable
HEKA Label
HE_KDL_ARG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares
Square F Value Pr F Model 4 232196.9 58049.22 74.86 .0001
Error 21 16283.11 775.3863 Corrected Total 25 248480.0
Root MSE 27.84576 R-Square 0.93447 Dependent Mean 500.03510 Adj R-Sq 0.92199
Coeff Var 5.56876
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 39.59796 37.61599 1.05 0.3044 Intercept
HKW 1 0.870944 0.056011 15.55 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W ERA 1
-4.28929 5.446008 -0.79 0.4397
ARSUSD XKA 1
-0.01236 0.003411 -3.62 0.0016 X_KDL_ARG
LHEKA 1 0.066310 0.069017 0.96 0.3476 LAG HEKA
Durbin-Watson 1.451251 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.140004
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_DKA Dependent Variable
HDKA Label
HD_KDL_ARG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 40528.15 13509.38 3.37 0.0368 Error 22 88244.13 4011.097
Corrected Total 25 128772.3
Root MSE 63.33322 R-Square 0.31473 Dependent Mean 356.89568 Adj R-Sq 0.22128
Coeff Var 17.74558
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept
1 127.8220 92.64383 1.38 0.1815 Intercept HEKA 1 0.104366 0.131084 0.80 0.4344 HE_KDL_ARG
RSDCKA 1 -2.90880 8.574388
-0.34 0.7376 LHDKA 1
0.521371 0.202320 2.58 0.0172 LAG HDKA Durbin-Watson 1.985634
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.0186
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KA
Dependent Variable CKA
Label C_KDL_ARG
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 1117888 372629.3 12.82 .0001
Error 22 639520.7 29069.12 Corrected Total 25 1757409
Root MSE 170.49669 R-Square 0.63610 Dependent Mean 277.76923 Adj R-Sq 0.58648
Coeff Var 61.38070
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-2039.83 380.3304 -5.36 .0001 Intercept
RHDKA 1
-41.4378 181.1289 -0.23 0.8212 LAJU HDKA
RHCOW 1 131.3494 1249.220 0.11 0.9172 LAJU HCOW POPA 1 66.68074 10.92070 6.11 .0001 POPA
Durbin-Watson 0.337253 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.634497
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
EKSPOR_KA Dependent Variable
XKA Label
X_KDL_ARG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 2.5498E8 63745945 1447.53 .0001 Error 22 968828.4 44037.66
Uncorrected 26 2.5595E8 Total
Root MSE 209.85151 R-Square 0.99621 Dependent Mean 2561.73077 Adj R-Sq 0.99553
Coeff Var 8.19179 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HEKA 1 0.163538 0.368430 0.44 0.6615 HE_KDL_ARG HDKA 1
-0.41667 0.537170 -0.78 0.4462 HD_KDL_ARG
ERA 1 10.76324 36.91756 0.29 0.7734 ARSUSD PRODKA 1 0.909194 0.023724 38.32 .0001 PROD_KDL_ARG
Durbin-Watson 1.304746 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.209045
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_XMA Dependent Variable
HEMA Label
HE_MTHR_ARG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 196200.7 98100.33 33.88 .0001 Error 23 66603.28 2895.795
Corrected Total 25 262803.9
Root MSE 53.81259 R-Square 0.74657 Dependent Mean 538.51009 Adj R-Sq 0.72453
Coeff Var 9.99287
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 107.3276 62.75954 1.71
0.1007 Intercept HMW 1 0.550047 0.081047 6.79 .0001 H_MTHR_W
LHEMA 1 0.183935 0.115678 1.59 0.1255 LAG HEMA Durbin-Watson
1.161056 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.209525
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_DMA Dependent Variable
HDMA Label
HD_MTHR_ARG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1406468 351616.9 295.83 .0001
Error 22 26148.27 1188.558 Uncorrected 26 1432616
Total
Root MSE 34.47547 R-Square 0.98175 Dependent Mean 230.36474 Adj R-Sq 0.97843
Coeff Var 14.96560 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HEMA 1 0.162831 0.061444 2.65 0.0146 HE_MTHR_ARG
SDMA 1 -0.32333 0.267054
-1.21 0.2388
CMA 1 0.399137 0.376529 1.06 0.3006 KON_MTHR_ARG LHDMA 1 0.621045 0.164138 3.78 0.0010
LAG HDMA Durbin-Watson 2.327425
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.1706
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_MA
Dependent Variable CMA
Label C_MTHR_ARG
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 3608084 1202695 163.60 .0001 Error 23 169081.7 7351.378
Uncorrected 26 3777166 Total
Root MSE 85.74018 R-Square 0.95524 Dependent Mean 371.61538 Adj R-Sq 0.94940
Coeff Var 23.07229 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label RHDMKA 1
-225.772 327.2360 -0.69 0.4971
HCOW 1 5.172079 4.264947 1.21 0.2376 H_MYK.BUMI_W POPA 1 6.433590 5.244161 1.23 0.2323 POPULASI_ARG
Durbin-Watson 0.950674 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.504482
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
EKSPOR_MA Dependent Variable
XMA Label
X_MTHR_ARG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 2748558 549711.7 108.85 .0001 Error 20 101000.6 5050.029
Corrected Total 25 2849559
Root MSE 71.06356 R-Square 0.96456 Dependent Mean 1122.03846 Adj R-Sq 0.95569
Coeff Var 6.33343
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-27.2357 102.4615 -0.27 0.7931 Intercept
HEMA 1 0.065140 0.171446 0.38 0.7080 HE_MTHR_ARG HDMA 1
-0.22921 0.325185 -0.70 0.4890 HD_MTHR_ARG
PEMA 1 -2.04815 3.105707
-0.66 0.5171 PE_MTHR_ARG PRODMA 1 0.794059 0.054314 14.62 .0001 PROD_MTH_ARG
LXMA 1 0.011916 0.056456 0.21 0.8350 LAG XMA
Durbin-Watson 2.435471
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.22337
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_XKUSA Dependent Variable
HEKUSA Label
HE_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 98953.01 49476.50 3.21 0.0589
Error 23 354441.5 15410.50 Corrected Total 25 453394.5
Root MSE 124.13903 R-Square 0.21825 Dependent Mean 623.84113 Adj R-Sq 0.15027
Coeff Var 19.89914
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 343.4989 117.3232 2.93 0.0076 Intercept
HKW 1 0.457125 0.218753 2.09 0.0479 H_KEDELAI_W SEKUSA 1 2.036429 2.327399 0.87 0.3906
SE_KDL_USA Durbin-Watson 0.633913
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.613479
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_DKUSA Dependent Variable
HDKUSA Label
HD_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 15578412 5192804 371.32 .0001 Error 23 321646.4 13984.63
Uncorrected 26 15900059 Total
Root MSE 118.25661 R-Square 0.97977 Dependent Mean 773.72139 Adj R-Sq 0.97713
Coeff Var 15.28413 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HEKUSA 1 0.519024 0.146361 3.55 0.0017
HE_KDL_USA SDKUSA 1
-0.12344 0.099173 -1.24 0.2258
CKUSA 1 0.206917 0.115929 1.78 0.0875 C_KDL_USA Durbin-Watson 0.980044
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.474246
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_USA Dependent Variable
CKUSA Label
C_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 1.0983E9 3.6611E8 544.94 .0001 Error 23 15452279 671838.2
Uncorrected 26 1.1138E9 Total
Root MSE 819.65739 R-Square 0.98613 Dependent Mean 6417.34615 Adj R-Sq 0.98432
Coeff Var 12.77253
NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares.
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label RHDKUSAHCOW 1
-70.3891 127.2322 -0.55 0.5854
HDRUSA 1 0.709185 2.624096 0.27 0.7894 HD_RAPE_USA
POPUSA 1 25.79298 4.855821 5.31 .0001 POP_USA Durbin-Watson 0.198069
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.85053
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
EKSPOR_KUSA Dependent Variable
XKUSA Label
X_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 262368.1 87456.03 1.18 0.3401 Error 22 1630440 74110.91
Corrected Total 25 1892808
Root MSE 272.23318 R-Square 0.13861 Dependent Mean 788.19231 Adj R-Sq 0.02115
Coeff Var 34.53893
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept
1 441.8021 409.7087 1.08 0.2926 Intercept RHEKUSA 1 65.10564 313.5075 0.21 0.8374
HDKUSA 1 -0.27971 0.501962
-0.56 0.5830 HD_KDL_USA PRODKUSA 1
0.077960 0.041541 1.88 0.0739 PROD_KDL_USA Durbin-Watson 1.72575
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.125047
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_XRUSA Dependent Variable
HERUSA Label
HE_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 10774835 3591612 201.49 .0001 Error 23 409981.2 17825.27
Uncorrected 26 11184817 Total
Root MSE 133.51131 R-Square 0.96334 Dependent Mean 649.12550 Adj R-Sq 0.95856
Coeff Var 20.56787 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HRW 1 0.855283 0.237384 3.60 0.0015 H_RAPE_W SERUSA 1 8.448790 5.180220 1.63 0.1165 SE_RAPE_USA
XRUSA 1 -0.42908 0.432013
-0.99 0.3309 X_RAPE_USA Durbin-Watson 1.269166
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.261879
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MRUSA Dependent Variable
HMRUSA Label
HM_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 9430177 4715089 1710.53 .0001 Error 24 66156.26 2756.511
Uncorrected 26 9496333 Total
Root MSE 52.50249 R-Square 0.99303 Dependent Mean 595.32024 Adj R-Sq 0.99245
Coeff Var 8.81920 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HRW 1 0.680184 0.053047 12.82 .0001 H_RAPE_W TMRUSA 1 7.412285 1.036752 7.15 .0001 TM_RAPE_USA
Durbin-Watson 1.111695 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.35882
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_DRUSA Dependent Variable
HDRUSA Label
HD_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 282655.5 70663.88 187.98 .0001
Error 21 7893.945 375.9021 Corrected Total 25 290549.4
Root MSE 19.38820 R-Square 0.97283 Dependent Mean 728.66393 Adj R-Sq 0.96766
Coeff Var 2.66079
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 7.249052 29.16400 0.25 0.8061
Intercept HERUSA 1 1.065817 0.045382 23.49 .0001 HE_RAPE_USA
HMRUSA 1 0.013472 0.043079 0.31 0.7576 HM_RAPE_USA
SDRUSA 1 -0.02424 0.185505
-0.13 0.8973 CRUSA 1 0.066539 0.196467 0.34 0.7382 KON_RAPE_USA
Durbin-Watson 1.981115 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09609
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_RUSA Dependent Variable
CRUSA Label
KON_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 2986773 746693.4 43.03 .0001
Error 21 364377.2 17351.30 Corrected Total 25 3351151
Root MSE 131.72432 R-Square 0.89127 Dependent Mean 532.11538 Adj R-Sq 0.87056
Coeff Var 24.75484
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-3516.09 325.8055 -10.79
.0001 Intercept
HDRUSA 1 -0.79295 1.320012
-0.60 0.5545 HD_RAPE_USA RHDRUSAHCOW 1
-6.57461 79.89775 -0.08 0.9352
HDKUSA 1 0.299084 0.444058 0.67 0.5080 HD_KDL_USA POPUSA 1 16.70166 1.370140 12.19 .0001 POPULASI_USA
Durbin-Watson 0.819839 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.382386
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
EKSPOR_RUSA Dependent Variable
XRUSA Label
X_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 281380.1 93793.37 55.34 .0001 Error 23 38981.90 1694.865
Uncorrected 26 320362.0 Total
Root MSE 41.16874 R-Square 0.87832 Dependent Mean 80.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.86245
Coeff Var 51.46093
NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares.
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HERUSA 1 0.066989 0.469420 0.14 0.8878 HE_RAPE_USA
HDRUSA 1 -0.05650 0.427448
-0.13 0.8960 HD_RAPE_USA PRODRUSA 1 0.431599 0.065818 6.56 .0001 PROD_RAPE_US
Durbin-Watson 1.577254 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.177428
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_RUSA Dependent Variable
MRUSA Label
M_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 1921045 480261.3 231.31 .0001 Error 21 43600.73 2076.225
Corrected Total 25 1964646
Root MSE 45.56561 R-Square 0.97781 Dependent Mean 434.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.97358
Coeff Var 10.49899
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept
1 56.36600 52.29767 1.08 0.2934 Intercept HMRUSA 1
-0.05946 0.091702 -0.65 0.5238 HM_RAPE_USA
STOKRUSA 1 -0.52080 0.474291
-1.10 0.2846 STOK_RAPE_US CRUSA 1 0.644072 0.089667 7.18 .0001 KON_RAPE_USA
LMRUSA 1 0.230138 0.138279 1.66 0.1109 LAG MRUSA
Durbin-Watson 1.546701 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.21946
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_DRCD Dependent Variable
HDRCD Label
HD_RAPE_CD Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 10148674 2537169 928.57 .0001 Error 22 60111.35 2732.334
Uncorrected 26 10208786 Total
Root MSE 52.27173 R-Square 0.99411 Dependent Mean 619.01389 Adj R-Sq 0.99304
Coeff Var 8.44436 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HERCD 1 0.990814 0.110647 8.95 .0001 HE_RAPE_CD
PRODRCD 1 -0.00435 0.032375
-0.13 0.8942 PROD_RAPE_CD
CRCD 1 0.015832 0.118266 0.13 0.8947 KONS_RAPE_CD LHDRCD 1 0.063175 0.111401 0.57 0.5764
LAG HDRCD Durbin-Watson
2.093515 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.06197
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_XRCD Dependent Variable
HERCD Label
HE_RAPE_CD Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 8928012 2232003 520.32 .0001 Error 22 94372.79 4289.672
Uncorrected 26 9022385 Total
Root MSE 65.49559 R-Square 0.98954 Dependent Mean 581.69623 Adj R-Sq 0.98764
Coeff Var 11.25941 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HRW 1 0.636471 0.138230 4.60 0.0001 H_RAPE_RW SERCD 1 0.079828 1.672016 0.05 0.9624 SE_RAPE_CD
XRCD 1 -0.15465 0.053570
-2.89 0.0086 X_RAPE_CD LHERCD 1 0.542992 0.103957 5.22 .0001
LAG HERCD Durbin-Watson 1.505233
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.067104
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_RCD Dependent Variable
CRCD Label KON_RAPE_CD
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 198206.9 49551.73 16.17 .0001
Error 21 64358.05 3064.669 Corrected Total 25 262565.0
Root MSE 55.35945 R-Square 0.75489 Dependent Mean 418.03846 Adj R-Sq 0.70820
Coeff Var 13.24267
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -169.133 514.5234
-0.33 0.7456 Intercept
HDRCD 1 -0.00666 0.134833
-0.05 0.9611 HD_RAPE_CD HCOW 1 4.062721 8.558575 0.47 0.6399 H_MYK.BUMI_W
POPCD 1 1.131358 5.727270 0.20 0.8453 POPULASI_CD LCRCD 1 0.797579 0.127383 6.26 .0001
LAG CRCD Durbin-Watson 1.418335
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.269237
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
EKSPOR_RCD Dependent Variable XRCD
Label X_RAPE_CD
Analysis of Variance Sum of
Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 12863673 3215918 339.59 .0001 Error 22 208340.6 9470.028
Uncorrected 26 13072014 Total
Root MSE 97.31407 R-Square 0.98406 Dependent Mean 604.53846 Adj R-Sq 0.98116
Coeff Var 16.09725 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
RHERCD 1 5.123725 133.7024 0.04 0.9698 LAJU HERCD
HDRCD 1 -0.32645 0.127713
-2.56 0.0180 HD_RAPE_CD PRODRCD 1 0.583089 0.142575 4.09 0.0005 PROD_RAPE_CD
LXRCD 1 0.414745 0.143973 2.88 0.0087 LAG XRCD
Durbin-Watson 1.091843 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.451466
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MSP
Dependent Variable HMSP
Label HM_SWT_PKT
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 6560406 3280203 358.48 .0001
Error 24 219606.8 9150.283 Uncorrected 26 6780013
Total
Root MSE 95.65711 R-Square 0.96761 Dependent Mean 492.25841 Adj R-Sq 0.96491
Coeff Var 19.43230 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HSW 1 0.689993 0.114202 6.04 .0001 H_SAWIT_W LHMSP 1 0.334226 0.108595 3.08 0.0052
LAG HMSP Durbin-Watson 2.052818
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.09094
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_SP
Dependent Variable CSP
Label KON_SWT_PKT
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 5863134 1954378 79.41 .0001
Error 22 541419.5 24609.98 Corrected Total 25 6404553
Root MSE 156.87568 R-Square 0.91546 Dependent Mean 1076.84615 Adj R-Sq 0.90394
Coeff Var 14.56807
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept
1 -799.987 350.4530
-2.28 0.0325 Intercept HMSP 1
-0.30548 0.229976 -1.33 0.1977
HM_SWT_PKT POPP 1 12.74509 4.229904 3.01 0.0064 POP_PKT
LCSP 1 0.433641 0.194132 2.23 0.0360 Durbin-Watson 2.10229
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.08351
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_SP
Dependent Variable MSP Label
M_SWT_PKT Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 6203632 1240726 125.26 .0001 Error 20 198100.4 9905.021
Corrected Total 25 6401732
Root MSE 99.52397 R-Square 0.96906 Dependent Mean 1077.46154 Adj R-Sq 0.96132
Coeff Var 9.23689
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 2310.386 647.5191 3.57 0.0019 Intercept
HMSP 1
-0.13369 0.147317 -0.91 0.3750 HM_SWT_PK
ERP 1 -9.75469 4.698799
-2.08 0.0510 PKRUSD
TMSP 1 -39.9513 9.953031
-4.01 0.0007 TM_SWT_PK RCSP
1 784.9596 134.2672 5.85 .0001 LAJU CSP
LMSP 1 0.463356 0.151495 3.06 0.0062 LAG MSP
Durbin-Watson 2.819279 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.40988
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MMMS Dependent Variable
HMMMS Label
HM_MTHR_MS Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 10743523 3581174 186.17 .0001
Error 23 442426.2 19235.92 Uncorrected 26 11185950
Total
Root MSE 138.69363 R-Square 0.96045 Dependent Mean 639.93478 Adj R-Sq 0.95529
Coeff Var 21.67309 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMW 1 0.359474 0.130518 2.75 0.0113 H_MTHR_W
TMMMS 1 7.690904 3.146948 2.44 0.0226 TM_MTHR_MS LHMMMS 1 0.345766 0.166733 2.07 0.0495
LAG HMMS Durbin-Watson 1.661381
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.109781
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_MMS Dependent Variable
CMMS Label
KON_MTHR_MS Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 32754.75 8188.688 2.20 0.1038 Error 21 78113.90 3719.710
Corrected Total 25 110868.7
Root MSE 60.98942 R-Square 0.29544 Dependent Mean 211.11538 Adj R-Sq 0.16124
Coeff Var 28.88914
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 216.4328 118.6874 1.82
0.0825 Intercept HMMMS 1
-0.00951 0.100222 -0.09 0.9253 HM_MTHR_MS
ERMS 1 -14.3876 13.14317
-1.09 0.2861 EUSD
POPMS 1 0.112771 1.367242 0.08 0.9350 POPULASI_MS LCMMS 1 0.369714 0.211808 1.75 0.0955
LAG CMMS Durbin-Watson 2.020331
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.07217
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_MMS
Dependent Variable MMMS
Label M_MTHR_MS
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 46335.06 15445.02 5.28 0.0068 Error 22 64313.56 2923.343
Corrected Total 25 110648.6
Root MSE 54.06795 R-Square 0.41876 Dependent Mean 206.76923 Adj R-Sq 0.33950
Coeff Var 26.14894
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept
1 353.3033 50.26434 7.03 .0001 Intercept RHMMMS 1
-2.37764 39.01334 -0.06 0.9520
LAJU HMMS ERMS 1
-27.9014 8.838741 -3.16 0.0046 EUSD
RCMMS 1 82.52237 29.77358 2.77 0.0111
LAJU CMMS Durbin-Watson 0.751208
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.540745
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MKEU Dependent Variable
HMKEU Label
HM_KDL_EU Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 109875.5 54937.76 15.49 .0001
Error 23 81549.70 3545.639 Corrected Total 25 191425.2
Root MSE 59.54527 R-Square 0.57399 Dependent Mean 586.39984 Adj R-Sq 0.53694
Coeff Var 10.15438
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 175.0135 284.2963 0.62 0.5442 Intercept HKW 1 0.563480 0.101761 5.54 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W
TMKEU 1 4.251363 11.10336 0.38 0.7053 TM_KDL_EU
Durbin-Watson 1.17561 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.192989
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_KEU Dependent Variable
CKEU Label
KON_KDL_EU Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 59129322 9854887 560.10 .0001 Error 20 351897.1 17594.85
Uncorrected 26 59481219 Total
Root MSE 132.64559 R-Square 0.99408 Dependent Mean 1498.46777 Adj R-Sq 0.99231
Coeff Var 8.85208
NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares.
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMKEU 1
-0.77048 0.859239 -0.90 0.3805 HM_KDL_EU
HMREU 1 0.615640 0.556143 1.11 0.2814 HM_RAPE_EU
HMMEU 1 0.503863 0.727754 0.69 0.4967 HM_MTHR_EU RHCOW 1 1400.688 1045.484 1.34 0.1954
LAJU HCOW IPEU 1 0.026403 0.010320 2.56 0.0187 INCM.KAPT_EU
LCKEU 1 0.374336 0.179016 2.09 0.0495 LAG CKEU
Durbin-Watson 1.542827 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.193369
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_KEU Dependent Variable
MKEU Label
M_KDL_EU Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 15689234 5229745 37.73 .0001 Error 23 3188069 138611.7
Uncorrected 26 18877304 Total
Root MSE 372.30594 R-Square 0.83112 Dependent Mean 766.55665 Adj R-Sq 0.80909
Coeff Var 48.56861
NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares.
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMKEU 1
-0.30298 0.870566 -0.35 0.7310 HM_KDL_EU
EREU 1 -91.3233 128.0756
-0.71 0.4830 EUROUSD CKEU 1 0.702171 0.320008 2.19 0.0386 KON_KDL_EU
Durbin-Watson 0.266448 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.739788
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MSEU Dependent Variable HMSEU
Label HM_SWT_EU
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 155631.5 77815.77 41.07 .0001
Error 23 43581.30 1894.839 Corrected Total 25 199212.8
Root MSE 43.52975 R-Square 0.78123 Dependent Mean 521.56589 Adj R-Sq 0.76221
Coeff Var 8.34597
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 133.9674 88.67024 1.51 0.1444 Intercept
HSW 1 0.746373 0.084815 8.80 .0001 H_SAWIT_W TMSEU 1 1.444464 3.112930 0.46 0.6470 TM_SWT_EU
Durbin-Watson 1.473455 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.141313
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_SEU Dependent Variable
CSEU Label
KON_SWT_EU Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 16170706 2695118 101.69 .0001 Error 19 503570.3 26503.70
Corrected Total 25 16674277
Root MSE 162.79957 R-Square 0.96980 Dependent Mean 1661.97904 Adj R-Sq 0.96026
Coeff Var 9.79553
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -10473.3 6638.383
-1.58 0.1311 Intercept HMSEU 1
-1.76015 0.621596 -2.83 0.0107 HM_SWT_EU
HMMEU 1 1.236793 0.638800 1.94 0.0679 HM_MTHR_EU RHCOW 1 590.7302 1207.266 0.49 0.6302
LAJU HCOW IPEU 1 0.040975 0.037243 1.10 0.2850 INCM.KAPT_EU
POPEU 1 24.40434 17.68829 1.38 0.1837 POP_EU
LCSEU 1 0.604560 0.161131 3.75 0.0013 LAG CSEU
Durbin-Watson 1.795544 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.093024
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_SEU Dependent Variable MSEU
Label M_SWT_EU
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model
3 2.8104E8 93678491 2496.42 .0001 Error 23 863077.6 37525.11
Uncorrected 26 2.819E8 Total
Root MSE 193.71400 R-Square 0.99694 Dependent Mean 2849.23458 Adj R-Sq 0.99654
Coeff Var 6.79881 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate
Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMSEU 1
-0.23946 0.165309 -1.45 0.1610 HM_SWT_EU
CSEU 1 0.399460 0.121357 3.29 0.0032 KON_SWT_EU
LMSEU 1 0.871883 0.064325 13.55 .0001 LAG MSEU
Durbin-Watson 1.577824 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.166429
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MREU Dependent Variable HMREU
Label HM_RAPE_EU
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 10152090 5076045 1232.48 .0001
Error 24 98845.68 4118.570
Uncorrected 26 10250935 Total
Root MSE 64.17609 R-Square 0.99036 Dependent Mean 617.52583 Adj R-Sq 0.98955
Coeff Var 10.39245 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HRW 1 0.798185 0.082564 9.67 .0001 H_RAPE_W
TMREU 1 7.037101 1.977018 3.56 0.0016 TM_RAPE_EU Durbin-Watson 0.799112
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.375523
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_REU Dependent Variable
CREU Label
KON_RAPE_EU Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 11886224 2377245 61.62 .0001
Error 20 771591.4 38579.57 Corrected Total 25 12657815
Root MSE 196.41682 R-Square 0.93904 Dependent Mean 1478.89158 Adj R-Sq 0.92380
Coeff Var 13.28135
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-5268.47 4543.253 -1.16
0.2599 Intercept HMREU 1
-0.59224 0.827580 -0.72 0.4825 HM_RAPE_EU
HMSEU 1 0.768582 0.840079 0.91 0.3711 HM_SWT_EU HCOW 1 15.21893 29.16739 0.52 0.6076 H_MYK.BUMI_W
POPEU 1 10.89263 12.00570 0.91 0.3751 POP_EU LCREU 1 0.908926 0.170249 5.34 .0001
LAG CREU Durbin-Watson 2.408659
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.21363
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_REU Dependent Variable MREU
Label M_RAPE_EU
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 10658237 5329118 33.07 .0001
Error 23 3706326 161144.6 Corrected Total 25 14364563
Root MSE 401.42824 R-Square 0.74198 Dependent Mean 1163.17100 Adj R-Sq
0.71954 Coeff Var 34.51154
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 154.2939 452.5519 0.34 0.7362 Intercept HMREU 1
-0.72911 0.883108 -0.83 0.4175 HM_RAPE_EU
CREU 1 0.986633 0.143912 6.86 .0001 KON_RAPE_EU Durbin-Watson 0.718025
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.556023
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MMEU Dependent Variable
HMMEU Label
HM_MTTHR_EU Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 116238.8 58119.38 11.18 0.0004 Error 23 119602.8 5200.123
Corrected Total 25 235841.6
Root MSE 72.11188 R-Square 0.49287 Dependent Mean 677.69429 Adj R-Sq 0.44877
Coeff Var 10.64077
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 336.7428 258.6776 1.30 0.2059 Intercept
HMW 1 0.486808 0.122409 3.98 0.0006 H_MTHR_W
TMMEU 1 2.017002 9.058759 0.22 0.8258 TM_MTHR_EU Durbin-Watson 0.98668
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.291915
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_MEU Dependent Variable
CMEU Label
KON_MTHR_EU Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 2673469 891156.4 80.25 .0001 Error 22 244308.1 11104.91
Corrected Total 25 2917777
Root MSE 105.37986 R-Square 0.91627 Dependent Mean 1642.78754 Adj R-Sq 0.90485
Coeff Var 6.41470
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-825.988 579.4471 -1.43
0.1681 Intercept RHMMREU 1
-732.909 282.6881 -2.59 0.0166
HMKEU 1 0.478277 0.278230 1.72 0.0997 HM_KDL_EU IPEU 1 0.118464 0.010325 11.47 .0001
INCM.KAPT_EU Durbin-Watson 1.238878
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.253076
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_MEU
Dependent Variable MMEU
Label M_MTHR_EU
Analysis of Variance Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 8898870 2224718 103.73 .0001
Error 21 450399.7 21447.60 Corrected Total 25 9349270
Root MSE 146.45000 R-Square 0.95183 Dependent Mean 1088.62795 Adj R-Sq 0.94265
Coeff Var 13.45271
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 30.12616 261.0122 0.12 0.9092 Intercept HMMEU 1
-0.18123 0.348355 -0.52 0.6083 HM_MTHR_EU
PRODMEU 1 -0.30879 0.104796
-2.95 0.0077 PROD_MTHR_EU CMEU 1 0.761962 0.228374 3.34 0.0031 KON_MTHR_EU
LMMEU 1 0.650198 0.125867 5.17 .0001 LAG MMEU
Durbin-Watson 1.546821 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.213677
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MSC Dependent Variable
HMSC Label
HM_SWT_CINA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 6037175 3018588 1705.07 .0001
Error 24 42488.63 1770.360 Uncorrected 26 6079664
Total
Root MSE 42.07564 R-Square 0.99301 Dependent Mean 476.43243 Adj R-Sq 0.99243
Coeff Var 8.83140 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HSW 1 0.854980 0.047480 18.01 .0001 H_SAWIT_W TMSC 1 2.071625 0.708355 2.92 0.0074 TM_SWT_CINA
Durbin-Watson 1.051652 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.302145
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_SC
Dependent Variable CSC
Label KON_SWT_CINA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 69913541 11652257 64.70 .0001
Error 19 3421944 180102.3 Corrected Total 25 73335485
Root MSE 424.38462 R-Square 0.95334 Dependent Mean 1778.34523 Adj R-Sq 0.93860
Coeff Var 23.86402
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-13375.0 3941.952 -3.39 0.0031 Intercept
HMSC 1 -2.99543 1.514199
-1.98 0.0626 HM_SWT_CINA HMKC 1 0.175097 1.151625 0.15 0.8808
HM_KDL_CINA HMRC 1 1.794438 1.604994 1.12 0.2775 HM_RAPE_CINA
HCOW 1 145.2790 81.82875 1.78 0.0919 H_MYK.BUMI_W IPC 1 1.223164 0.151634 8.07 .0001 ICM.KAP_CINA
POPC 1 3.447816 1.839283 1.87 0.0763 POP_CINA
Durbin-Watson 1.097169 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.441054
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_SC Dependent Variable
MSC Label
M_SWT_CINA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF
Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 77586555 38793278 763.93 .0001
Error 23 1167963 50781.00 Corrected Total 25 78754518
Root MSE 225.34640 R-Square 0.98517 Dependent Mean 2046.64954 Adj R-Sq 0.98388
Coeff Var 11.01050
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 274.0120 258.5240 1.06 0.3002 Intercept
HMSC 1 -0.12175 0.539598
-0.23 0.8235 HM_SWT_CINA CSC 1 1.029408 0.026583 38.72 .0001
KON_SWT_CINA Durbin-Watson 0.536344
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.728439
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MKC Dependent Variable
HMKC Label
HM_KDL_CINA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 68839.04 34419.52 5.08 0.0149 Error 23 155936.0 6779.828
Corrected Total 25 224775.1
Root MSE 82.33971 R-Square 0.30626 Dependent Mean 551.18895 Adj R-Sq
0.24593 Coeff Var 14.93856
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 264.6960 114.1766 2.32 0.0297 Intercept HKW 1 0.494498 0.168343 2.94 0.0074 H_KEDELAI_W
TMKC 1 0.215192 0.369152 0.58 0.5656 TM_KDL_CINA
Durbin-Watson 1.889787 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.16315
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KC
Dependent Variable CKC
Label KON_KDL_CINA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 17154019
4288505 209.48 .0001 Error 21 429907.8 20471.80
Corrected Total 25 17583927 Root MSE 143.07969 R-Square 0.97555
Dependent Mean 1880.91570 Adj R-Sq 0.97089 Coeff Var 7.60692
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -1707.87 991.0066
-1.72 0.0995 Intercept HMKC 1
-0.16965 0.318783 -0.53 0.6002 HM_KDL_CINA
IPC 1 0.014549 0.069336 0.21 0.8358 INCMKAP_CINA POPC 1 1.844396 0.993997 1.86 0.0776 POP_CINA
LCKC 1 0.796551 0.178757 4.46 0.0002 LAG CKC
Durbin-Watson 2.314156 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21539
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KC
Dependent Variable MKC Label
M_KDL_CINA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 39361020 13120340 69.29 .0001 Error 23 4355418 189366.0
Uncorrected 26 43716437 Total
Root MSE 435.16201 R-Square 0.90037 Dependent Mean 989.83546 Adj R-Sq 0.88738
Coeff Var 43.96307 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HMKC 1 -0.29663 0.399797
-0.74 0.4656 HM_KDL_CINA CKC 1 0.346245 0.165388
2.09 0.0475 KON_KDL_CINA LMKC 1 0.593307 0.183979 3.22 0.0037
LAG MKC Durbin-Watson 1.862062
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.061171
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MRC Dependent Variable
HMRC Label
HM_RAPE_CINA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 112791.9 56395.93 16.14 .0001 Error 23 80354.24 3493.662
Corrected Total 25 193146.1
Root MSE 59.10721 R-Square 0.58397 Dependent Mean 572.96345 Adj R-Sq
0.54780 Coeff Var 10.31605
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 127.0903 92.91518 1.37 0.1846 Intercept
HRW 1 0.605879 0.108064 5.61 .0001 H_RAPE_W TMRC 1 3.956275 1.599407 2.47 0.0212 TM_RAPE_CINA
Durbin-Watson 1.544718 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.117285
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_RC
Dependent Variable CRC
Label KON_RAPE_CINA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 31376363 6275273 354.87 .0001
Error 20 353667.2 17683.36 Corrected Total 25 31730030
Root MSE 132.97879 R-Square 0.98885 Dependent Mean 3115.53815 Adj R-Sq 0.98607
Coeff Var 4.26824
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-6128.81 1893.392 -3.24 0.0041 Intercept
HMRC 1 -0.00352 0.392250
-0.01 0.9929 HM_RAPE_CINA HMKC 1 0.257495 0.357662 0.72 0.4799 HM_KDL_CINA
IPC 1 0.114741 0.052276 2.19 0.0401 INC.KAP_CINA POPC 1 6.436799 1.938662 3.32 0.0034 POP_CINA
LCRC 1 0.362579 0.197304 1.84 0.0810 LAG CRC
Durbin-Watson 2.108007 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.05917
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_RC Dependent Variable
MRC Label
M_RAPE_CINA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 501451.6 125362.9 5.57 0.0032 Error 21 472663.9 22507.81
Corrected Total 25 974115.5
Root MSE 150.02602 R-Square 0.51478 Dependent Mean 236.90208 Adj R-Sq
0.42235 Coeff Var 63.32828
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 41.04146 204.0903 0.20 0.8426 Intercept HMRC 1
-0.02139 0.364984 -0.06 0.9538 HM_RAPE_CINA
PRODRC 1 -0.44848 0.145449
-3.08 0.0056 PROD_RAPE_CN CRC 1 0.457126 0.145806 3.14 0.0050 KON_RAPE_CN
LMRC 1 0.288498 0.169556 1.70 0.1036 LAG MRC
Durbin-Watson 1.726645 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.109558
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MKID
Dependent Variable HMKID
Label HM_KDL_ID
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 10815548 5407774 209.30 .0001
Error 24 620096.4 25837.35 Uncorrected 26 11435644
Total
Root MSE 160.74001 R-Square 0.94578 Dependent Mean 641.16080 Adj R-Sq 0.94126
Coeff Var 25.07015 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HKW 1 0.748755 0.109844 6.82 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W TMKID
1 5.162068 1.224019 4.22 0.0003 TM_KDL_INDIA Durbin-Watson 0.68737
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.627736
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_KID Dependent Variable
CKID Label
KON_KDL_ID Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 18031884 3606377 46.07 .0001
Error 20 1565587 78279.34 Corrected Total 25 19597470
Root MSE 279.78445 R-Square 0.92011 Dependent Mean 1289.53846 Adj R-Sq 0.90014
Coeff Var 21.69648
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -4107.24 2641.465
-1.55 0.1357 Intercept HMKID 1
-0.68285 0.457934 -1.49 0.1515 HM_KDL_INDIA
HMSID 1 0.414404 0.594720 0.70 0.4939 HM_SWT_INDIA HCOW 1 57.07257 54.68396 1.04 0.3091 H_MYK.BUMI_W
POPID 1 1.570795 1.200028 1.31 0.2054 POP_INDIA
LCKID 1 0.716798 0.205347 3.49 0.0023 LAG CKID
Durbin-Watson 2.049249 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09431
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_KID Dependent Variable MKID
Label M_KDL_ID
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model
3 9039496 3013165 298.23 .0001 Error 22 222276.5 10103.48
Corrected Total 25 9261772 Root MSE 100.51605 R-Square
0.97600 Dependent Mean 657.99269 Adj R-Sq 0.97273
Coeff Var 15.27617 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 64.95581 109.1634 0.60 0.5579 Intercept HMKID 1
-0.07863 0.141102 -0.56 0.5830 HM_KDL_INDIA
PRODKID 1 -0.96035 0.091343
-10.51 .0001 PROD_KDL_ID CKID 1 0.986032 0.047074 20.95 .0001 KON_KDL_ID
Durbin-Watson 2.54498 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.28821
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MSID Dependent Variable
HMSID Label
HM_SWT_ID Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 182051.7 60683.91 16.41 .0001 Error 22 81356.88 3698.040
Corrected Total 25 263408.6
Root MSE 60.81151 R-Square 0.69114 Dependent Mean 466.44712 Adj R-Sq 0.64902
Coeff Var 13.03717
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 42.28541 75.38254 0.56 0.5805 Intercept
HSW 1 0.665738 0.128193 5.19 .0001 H_SAWIT_W RCSID 1 23.18987 34.82930 0.67 0.5125
LAJU CSID LHMSID 1 0.218731 0.125128 1.75 0.0944
LAG HMSID Durbin-Watson 1.07785
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.371694
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_SID Dependent Variable
CSID Label
KON_SWT_ID Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 51391711 17130570 27.06 .0001 Error 22 13928144 633097.4
Corrected Total 25 65319855
Root MSE 795.67420 R-Square 0.78677 Dependent Mean 2013.19615 Adj R-Sq 0.75769
Coeff Var 39.52293
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1
-10086.8 3553.104 -2.84 0.0096 Intercept
HMSID 1
-1.17667 1.923363 -0.61 0.5470 HM_SWT_ID
IPID 1 0.756096 0.847393 0.89 0.3819 INC.KAP_ID POPID 1 11.43984 1.560870 7.33 .0001
POP_INDIA Durbin-Watson 0.387161
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.78973
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_SID Dependent Variable MSID
Label M_SWT_ID
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 50676155 16892052 29.28 .0001
Error 22 12690421 576837.3 Corrected Total 25 63366577
Root MSE 759.49807 R-Square 0.79973 Dependent Mean 2006.69615 Adj R-Sq 0.77242
Coeff Var 37.84818
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept
1 10490.41 1284.871 8.16 .0001 Intercept RRHMSIDRCSID 1
-91.5287 120.2965 -0.76 0.4548
TMSID 1 -180.130 25.19789
-7.15 .0001 TM_SWT_ID ERID 1
-70.7774 26.48513 -2.67 0.0139 INRUSD
Durbin-Watson 0.629999 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.669034
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MK
Dependent Variable HMKIR Label
HM_KDL_IR Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 9011377 4505688 638.85 .0001
Error 24 169268.6 7052.858 Uncorrected 26 9180645
Total
Root MSE 83.98130 R-Square 0.98156 Dependent Mean 582.49985 Adj R-Sq 0.98003
Coeff Var 14.41739 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HKW 1 0.870527 0.060770 14.32 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W TMKIR 1 2.671920 0.738601 3.62 0.0014 TM_KDL_IRAN
Durbin-Watson 1.830703 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.03012
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_KIR Dependent Variable
CKIR Label KON_KDL_IR
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 8852987 2213247 206.11 .0001
Error 22 236237.7 10738.08 Uncorrected 26 9089225
Total
Root MSE 103.62470 R-Square 0.97401 Dependent Mean 564.73077 Adj R-Sq 0.96928
Coeff Var 18.34940 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HMKIR 1 -0.22872 0.184055
-1.24 0.2271 HM_KDL_IR HMMIR 1 0.132785 0.181484 0.73 0.4721 HM_MTHR_IR
POPIR 1 4.461250 3.053229 1.46 0.1581 POP_IRAN LCKIR 1 0.623417 0.167564 3.72 0.0012
LAG CKIR Durbin-Watson 2.022464
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.01448
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_KIR Dependent Variable MKIR
Label M_KDL_IR
Analysis of Variance Sum of
Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 8892558 2223140 503.02 .0001 Error 22 97231.62 4419.619
Uncorrected 26 8989790 Total
Root MSE 66.48021 R-Square 0.98918 Dependent Mean 559.69231 Adj R-Sq 0.98722
Coeff Var 11.87799 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HMKIR 1 -0.06288 0.075080
-0.84 0.4113 HM_KDL_IR PRODKIR 1
-1.07570 0.277109 -3.88 0.0008 PROD_KDL_IR
CKIR 1 1.106310 0.118526 9.33 .0001 KON_KDL_IR LMKIR 1 0.086497 0.110730 0.78 0.4430
LAG MKIR Durbin-Watson 1.542655
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.221771
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
HARGA_MMIR Dependent Variable HMMIR
Label HM_MTHR_IR
Analysis of Variance Sum of
Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 11241176 3747059 366.87 .0001 Error 23 234910.1 10213.48
Uncorrected 26 11476086 Total
Root MSE 101.06178 R-Square 0.97953 Dependent Mean 657.25047 Adj R-Sq 0.97686
Coeff Var 15.37645 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HMW 1 0.295125 0.127441 2.32 0.0298 H_MTHR_W TMMIR 1 5.422256 2.130144 2.55 0.0181 TM_MTHR_IRAN
LHMMIR 1 0.465672 0.169194 2.75 0.0113 LAG HMMIR
Durbin-Watson 1.906567 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.014004
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
DISAPPR_MIR Dependent Variable
CMIR Label KON_MTHR_IR
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 580743.5 193581.2 20.14 .0001
Error 23 221026.5 9609.848 Uncorrected 26 801770.0
Total
Root MSE 98.02983 R-Square 0.72433 Dependent Mean 133.15385 Adj R-Sq 0.68837
Coeff Var 73.62148 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
RHMMKIR 1 -7.97627 59.89504
-0.13 0.8952 POPIR 1 1.273806 1.376983 0.93 0.3645 POP_IRAN
LCMIR 1 0.527630 0.185656 2.84 0.0092 LAG CMIR
Durbin-Watson 2.045131 Number of Observations 26
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.02257
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model
IMPOR_MIR Dependent Variable MMIR
Label M_MTHR_IR
Analysis of Variance Sum of
Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 924676.4 308225.5 605.99 .0001 Error 23 11698.59 508.6343
Uncorrected 26 936375.0 Total
Root MSE 22.55292 R-Square 0.98751 Dependent Mean 136.88462 Adj R-Sq 0.98588
Coeff Var 16.47586 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to:
1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
HMMIR 1 -0.00270 0.020448
-0.13 0.8959 HM_MTHR_IR PRODMIR 1
-0.92889 0.895150 -1.04 0.3102 PROD_MTHR_IR
CMIR 1 1.144923 0.041381 27.67 .0001 KON_MTHR_IR Durbin-Watson 1.39649
Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.267211
Lampiran 8. Program Validasi Historis Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia
PROC SIMNLIN DATA=TESIS DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL;
ENDOGENOUS HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS
YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA
HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS
HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID
HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW
SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA;
EXOGENOUS TREN PRODCOW HCOW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW
MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI ERI PESI STOKSI LPOPI LASIN LASIS LASIR L3LASIN L3LASIS L3LASIR ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM
CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA
PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD ERCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS
LPOPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID IPID
POPID TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR;
PARM B0
241.8316 B1 -
0.02120 B2
0.023313 B3
0.474437
C0
182.7619
C1 -
0.03417
C2
0.051413
C3
0.487471
D0 143.6909
D1 - 0.01026
D2 0.062441
D3 0.539133
E0 380.0096
E1 - 0.15911
E2 0.243896
I0
0.089329
I1 -
1.12078
I2
0.858698
J0 243.9014
J1 0.116390
J2 - 0.21126
J3 - 0.43739
J4 0.804695
K0 72.46956
K1 0.013851
K2 - 0.24278
K3 0.778981
L0
0.000224
L1 -
0.00153
L2 -
0.00406
L3
0.992763
M0 0.001040
M1 - 0.00015
M2 0.88328
N0 0.000087
N1 0.000197
N2 - 0.00817
N3 - 0.00149
N4 0.584751
O0
4.662357
O1
0.157079
O2 -
464.243
O3
0.300709
P0 0.745129
P1 - 0.00176
P2 - 11.0698
P3 0.167411
Q0 1.405829
Q1 - 453.433
Q2 - 57.9413
Q3 0.008254
Q4 0.896068
R0 -
3450.09
R1 -
0.05438
R2
961.7034
R3
23.42292
R4
0.695843
S0 15.75933
S1 0.855158
S2 - 14.0676
S3 - 0.00528
S4 0.244956
T0 0.069857
T1 - 6.67733
T2 0.812459
T3 0.388918
T4 0.465425
U0
351.7565
U1
0.110846
U2 -
6.46154
U3 -
3.66984
U4
0.454223
V0 0.507638
V1 - 0.14320
V2 0.169727
W0 - 723.471
W1 0.229701
W2 - 0.41627
W3 100.4155
W4 0.440950
W5
0.116749
X0 - 903.105
X1 - 0.19697
X2 - 2.17634
X3 11.50532
X4 0.683214
Y0 39.59796
Y1 0.870944
Y2 - 4.28929
Y3 - 0.01236
Y4 0.066310
Z0
127.8220
Z1
0.104366
Z2 -
2.90880
Z3
0.521371
AA0 - 2039.83
AA1 - 41.4378
AA2 131.3494
AA3 66.68074
AB0 0.163538
AB1 - 0.41667
AB2 10.76324
AB3 0.909194
AC0
107.3276
AC1
0.550047
AC2
0.183935
AD0 0.162831
AD1 - 0.32333
AD2 0.399137
AD3 0.621045
AE0 - 225.772
AE1 5.172079
AE2 6.433590
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
AF0 - 27.2357
AF1 0.065140
AF2 - 0.22921
AF3 - 2.04815
AF4 0.794059
AF5 0.011916
AG0
343.4989
AG1
0.457125
AG2
2.036429
AH0 0.855283
AH1 8.448790
AH2 - 0.42908
AI0 0.680184
AI1 7.412285
CG0
0.519024
CG1 -
0.12344
CG2
0.206917
CH0 7.249052
CH1 1.065817
CH2 0.013472
CH3 - 0.02424
CH4 0.066539
AJ0 441.8021
AJ1 65.10564
AJ2 - 0.27971
AJ3 0.077960
AK0
0.066989
AK1 -
0.05650
AK2
0.431599
AL0 56.36600
AL1 - 0.05946
AL2 - 0.52080
AL3 0.644072
AL4 0.230138
AM0 - 70.3891
AM1 0.709185
AM2 25.79298
AN0 -
3516.09
AN1 -
0.79295
AN2 -
6.57461
AN3
0.299084
AN4
16.70166
AO0 0.636471
AO1 0.079828
AO2 - 0.15465
AO3 0.542992
CE0 0.990814
CE1 - 0.00435
CE2 0.015832
CE3 0.063175
AP0
5.123725
AP1 -
0.32645
AP2
0.583089
AP3
0.414745
AQ0 - 169.133
AQ1 - 0.00666
AQ2 4.062721
AQ3 1.131358
AQ4 0.797579
AR0 0.689993
AR1 0.334226
AS0 -
799.987
AS1 -
0.30548
AS2
12.74509
AS3
0.433641
AT0 2310.386
AT1 - 0.13369
AT2 - 9.75469
AT3 - 39.9513
AT4 784.9596
AT5 0.463356
AU0
0.359474
AU1
7.690904
AU2
0.345766
AV0 353.3033
AV1 - 2.37764
AV2 - 27.9014
AV3 82.52237
AW0 216.4328
AW1 - 0.00951
AW2 - 14.3876
AW3 0.112771
AW4 0.369714
AX0
175.0135
AX1
0.563480
AX2
4.251363
AY0 133.9674
AY1 0.746373
AY2 1.444464
AZ0 0.798185
AZ1 7.037101
BA0
336.7428
BA1
0.486808
BA2
2.017002
BB0 - 0.77048
BB1 0.615640
BB2 0.503863
BB3 1400.688
BB4 0.026403
BB5 0.374336
BC0 -
825.988
BC1 -
732.909
BC2
0.478277
BC3
0.118464
BD0 - 10473.3
BD1 - 1.76015
BD2 1.236793
BD3 590.7302
BD4 0.040975
BD5 24.40434
BD6 0.604560
BE0 -
5268.47
BE1 -
0.59224
BE2
0.768582
BE3
15.21893
BE4
10.89263
BE5
0.908926
BF0 - 0.30298
BF1 - 91.3233
BF2 0.702171
BG0 - 0.23946
BG1 0.399460
BG2 0.871883
BH0 154.2939
BH1 - 0.72911
BH2 0.986633
BI0 30.12616
BI1 - 0.18123
BI2 - 0.30879
BI3 0.761962
BI4 0.650198
BJ0 - 13375.0
BJ1 - 2.99543
BJ2 0.175097
BJ3 1.794438
BJ4 145.2790
BJ5 1.223164
BJ6 3.447816
BK0 - 1707.87
BK1 - 0.16965
BK2 0.014549
BK3 1.844396
BK4 0.796551
BL0
0.854980
BL1
2.071625
BM0
264.6960
BM1
0.494498
BM2
0.215192
BN0 127.0903
BN1 0.605879
BN2 3.956275
BO0 - 6128.81
BO1 - 0.00352
BO2 0.257495
BO3 0.114741
BO4 6.436799
BO5
0.362579
BP0 - 0.29663
BP1 0.346245
BP2 0.593307
BQ0 41.04146
BQ1 - 0.02139
BQ2 - 0.44848
BQ3 0.457126
BQ4 0.288498
BR0
274.0120
BR1 -
0.12175
BR2
1.029408
BS0 10490.41
BS1 - 91.5287
BS2 - 180.130
BS3 - 70.7774
BT0 42.28541
BT1 0.665738
BT2 23.18987
BT3 0.218731
BU0
0.748755
BU1
5.162068
BV0 - 10086.8
BV1 - 1.17667
BV2 0.756096
BV3 11.43984
BW0 - 4107.24
BW1 - 0.68285
BW2 0.414404
BW3 57.07257
BW4 1.570795
BW5
0.716798
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
BX0 64.95581
BX1 - 0.07863
BX2 - 0.96035
BX3 0.986032
BY0 0.870527
BY1 2.671920
BZ0
0.295125
BZ1
5.422256
BZ2
0.465672
CA0 - 0.22872
CA1 0.132785
CA2 4.461250
CA3 0.623417
CB0 - 839.868
CB1 - 12.2172
CB2 13.86352
CB3 2.248393
CB4 0.497034
CC0 -
0.06288
CC1 -
1.07570
CC2
1.106310
CC3
0.086497
CD0 - 0.00270
CD1 - 0.92889
CD2 1.144923
; HSW
= B0+B1XSW+B2MSW+B3LHSW; HKW = C0+C1XKW+C2MKW+C3LHKW;
HRW = D0+D1XRW+D2MRW+D3LHRW;
HMW = E0+E1XMW+E2MMW; LASMIN = I0LHESI+I1RHCPI+I2L3LASIN;
LASMIS = J0+J1LHESI+J2RHCPI+J3USPI+J4L3LASIS; LASMIR = K0+K1LHDSI+K2USPI+K3LLASIR;
YIESIN = L0HESI+L1RHCPI+L2DLASMIN+L3LYIESIN; YIESIS = M0HESI+M1DLASMIS+M2LYIESIS;
YIESIR = N0HDSI+N1LHDSI+N2RHCPI+N3DLASMIR+N4LYIESIR; HDSI = O0HESI+O1ERI+O2RTSDSI+O3LHDSI;
HESI = P0HSW+P1ERI+P2RXSI+P3LHESI; XSI = Q0HESI+Q1RHDSI+Q2PESI+Q3ERI+Q4SXSI;
CSI = R0+R1HDSI+R2RHCOW+R3POPI+R4LCSI; HESM = S0+S1HSW+S2ERM+S3XSM+S4LHESM;
XSM = T0HESM+T1PESM+T2STOKSM+T3PRODSM+T4LXSM; HEKB = U0+U1HKW+U2ERB+U3PEKB+U4LHEKB;
HDKB = V0HEKB+V1SDKB+V2CKB; XKB
= W0+W1HEKB+W2HDKB+W3ERB+W4PRODKB+W5LXKB; CKB
= X0+X1HDKB+X2RRHDKBRHCOW+X3POPB+X4LCKB; HEKA = Y0+Y1HKW+Y2ERA+Y3XKA+Y4LHEKA;
HDKA = Z0+Z1HEKA+Z2RSDCKA+Z3LHDKA; CKA = AA0+AA1RHDKA+AA2RHCOW+AA3POPA;
XKA = AB0HEKA+AB1HDKA+AB2ERA+AB3PRODKA; HEMA = AC0+AC1HMW+AC2LHEMA;
HDMA = AD0HEMA+AD1SDMA+AD2CMA+AD3LHDMA; CMA = AE0RHDMKA+AE1HCOW+AE2POPA;
XMA = AF0+AF1HEMA+AF2HDMA+AF3PEMA+AF4PRODMA+AF5LXMA; HEKUSA = AG0+AG1HKW+AG2SEKUSA;
HERUSA = AH0HRW+AH1SERUSA+AH2XRUSA; HMRUSA = AI0HRW+AI1TMRUSA;
HDKUSA = CG0HEKUSA+CG1SDKUSA+CG2CKUSA; HDRUSA = CH0+CH1HERUSA+CH2HMRUSA+CH3SDRUSA+CH4CRUSA;
XKUSA
= AJ0+AJ1RHEKUSA+AJ2HDKUSA+AJ3PRODKUSA; XRUSA = AK0HERUSA+AK1HDRUSA+AK2PRODRUSA;
MRUSA = AL0+AL1HMRUSA+AL2STOKRUSA+AL3CRUSA+AL4LMRUSA; CKUSA = AM0RHDKUSAHCOW+AM1HDRUSA+AM2POPUSA;
CRUSA = AN0+AN1HDRUSA+AN2RHDRUSAHCOW+AN3HDKUSA+AN4POPUSA; HERCD = AO0HRW+AO1SERCD+AO2XRCD+AO3LHERCD;
HDRCD = CE0HERCD+CE1PRODRCD+CE2CRCD+CE3LHDRCD; XRCD = AP0RHERCD+AP1HDRCD+AP2PRODRCD+AP3LXRCD;
CRCD = AQ0+AQ1HDRCD+AQ2HCOW+AQ3POPCD+AQ4LCRCD; HMSP = AR0HSW+AR1LHMSP;
CSP
= AS0+AS1HMSP+AS2POPP+AS3LCSP; MSP
= AT0+AT1HMSP+AT2ERP+AT3TMSP+AT4RCSP+AT5LMSP; HMMMS = AU0HMW+AU1TMMMS+AU2LHMMMS;
MMMS = AV0+AV1RHMMMS+AV2ERMS+AV3RCMMS;
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
CMMS = AW0+AW1HMMMS+AW2ERMS+AW3POPMS+AW4LCMMS; HMKEU
= AX0+AX1HKW+AX2TMKEU; HMSEU = AY0+AY1HSW+AY2TMSEU;
HMREU = AZ0HRW+AZ1TMREU; HMMEU = BA0+BA1HMW+BA2TMMEU;
CKEU = BB0HMKEU+BB1HMREU+BB2HMMEU+BB3RHCOW+BB4IPEU
+BB5LCKEU; CMEU = BC0+BC1RHMMREU+BC2HMKEU+BC3IPEU;
CSEU = BD0+BD1HMSEU+BD2HMMEU+BD3RHCOW+BD4IPEU+BD5POPEU +BD6LCSEU;
CREU = BE0+BE1HMREU+BE2HMSEU+BE3HCOW+BE4POPEU+BE5LCREU; MKEU = BF0HMKEU+BF1EREU+BF2CKEU;
MSEU = BG0HMSEU+BG1CSEU+BG2LMSEU; MREU = BH0+BH1HMREU+BH2CREU;
MMEU = BI0+BI1HMMEU+BI2PRODMEU+BI3CMEU+BI4LMMEU; HMSC = BL0HSW+BL1TMSC;
HMKC = BM0+BM1HKW+BM2TMKC; HMRC = BN0+BN1HRW+BN2TMRC;
CSC = BJ0+BJ1HMSC+BJ2HMKC+BJ3HMRC+BJ4HCOW+BJ5IPC+BJ6POPC; CKC = BK0+BK1HMKC+BK2IPC+BK3POPC+BK4LCKC;
CRC
= BO0+BO1HMRC+BO2HMKC+BO3IPC+BO4POPC+BO5LCRC; MKC = BP0HMKC+BP1CKC+BP2LMKC;
MRC = BQ0+BQ1HMRC+BQ2PRODRC+BQ3CRC+BQ4LMRC; MSC = BR0+BR1HMSC+BR2CSC;
HMSID = BT0+BT1HSW+BT2RCSID+BT3LHMSID; HMKID = BU0HKW+BU1TMKID;
CSID = BV0+BV1HMSID+BV2IPID+BV3POPID; CKID = BW0+BW1HMKID+BW2HMSID+BW3HCOW+BW4POPID+BW5LCKID;
MSID = BS0+BS1RRHMSIDRCSID+BS2TMSID+BS3ERID; MKID = BX0+BX1HMKID+BX2PRODKID+BX3CKID;
HMKIR = BY0HKW+BY1TMKIR; HMMIR = BZ0HMW+BZ1TMMIR+BZ2LHMMIR;
CKIR = CA0HMKIR+CA1HMMIR+CA2POPIR+CA3LCKIR; CMIR = CB0+CB1RHMMKIR+CB2HCOW+CB3POPIR+CB4LCMIR;
MKIR = CC0HMKIR+CC1PRODKIR+CC2CKIR+CC3LMKIR; MMIR = CD0HMMIR+CD1PRODMIR+CD2CMIR;
PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW
= XSI+XSM+XSRW; XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW;
XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; XMW = XMA+XMRW;
MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW;
MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW;
SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI; SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI;
SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB; SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA;
SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA;
SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA;
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS;
LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR;
LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI = LAGXSI; LHCOW = LAGHCOW
LCSI = LAGCSI;
LXSI=LAGXSI; LXSM
= LAGXSM; LMSC
= LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU;
LMSID = LAGMSID
LMSP = LAGMSP;
LCSC = LAGCSC;
LCSEU = LAGCSEU;
LCSID = LAGCSID;
LCSP = LAGCSP;
LHSW = LAGHSW;
LHESI = LAGHESI;
LHESM = LAGHESM;
LHDSI = LAGHDSI;
LHMSC = LAGHMSC;
LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU; LHMSID
= LAGHMSID; LHMSP
= LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA;
LXKB = LAGXKB;
LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC;
LMKID = LAGMKID;
LMKEU = LAGMKEU;
LMKIR = LAGMKIR; LCKA
= LAGCKA; LCKB
= LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA;
LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID
= LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU;
LCKIR = LAGCKIR;
LHKW = LAGHKW;
LHEKA = LAGHEKA; LHEKB
= LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC
= LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID;
LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU;
LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD;
LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA; LMREU = LAGMREU;
LMRC = LAGMRC; LCRCD = LAGCRCD;
LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA;
LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC;
LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD;
LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA;
LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU;
LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU;
LMMMS = LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA;
LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR;
LHMW = LAGHMW;
LHEMA = LAGHEMA; LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU;
LHMMMS = LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR;
LHDKB = LAGHDKB; LHDKA
= LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA;
LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; RANGE TAHUN
2003
TO
2008
; RUN
;
Lampiran 9. Hasil Validasi Historis Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 184
Endogenous 97 Exogenous 87
Parameters 326 Range Variable Tahun
Equations 99 Number of Statements 180
Program Lag Length
1
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options
DATA= TESIS Solution Summary
Variables Solved 97 Simulation Lag Length
1 Solution Range Tahun
First 2003 Last 2008
Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8
Maximum CC 5.37E-10 Maximum Iterations 4
Total Iterations 18 Average Iterations 3
Observations Processed Read 7
Lagged 1 Solved 6
First 24 Last 29
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label HSW 6 6 512.8 86.8122 562.6 62.8084 H_SWT_W
HKW 6 6 645.5 114.0 571.6 15.5620 H_KDL_W HRW 6 6
734.2 76.5855 664.9 25.2355 H_RAPE_W HMW 6 6 739.9 142.2 690.7 54.3365 H_MTHR_W
LASMIN 6 6 566.3 54.5095 561.4 38.4835 L_TM_PBN LASMIS
6 6 2131.1 354.7 2061.0 108.6 L_TM_PBS
LASMIR 6 6 1726.4 286.3 1730.2 296.6 L_TM_PIR YIESIN 6 6 3.3827 0.7236
3.1787 0.3214 YELD_PBN YIESIS 6 6 3.4062 0.4664
3.2843 0.2102 YELD_PBS YIESIR 6 6 2.9263 0.3252
2.7117 0.1540 YELD_PR PRODSI 6 6 14373.0 3683.3 13226.0 1379.1 PRDS_INA
HDSI 6 6 5027.7 575.4 4520.8 84.7115 HD_S_INA HESI 6 6 431.2 83.3701 477.6 56.2606 HE_S_INA
SDSI 6 6 4829.5 1775.7 4925.8 639.2 SD_S_INA
CSI 6 6 4348.3 411.1 4366.6 400.6 C_S_INA
SXSI 6 6 11279.1 3766.6 10113.8 1501.9 SX-S_INA XSI 6 6 10797.9
2962.4 9554.5 1343.9 X_S_INA HESM 6 6 428.2 103.8 493.2 59.0148 HE_S_MAS
XSM 6 6 13404.7 1355.4 13089.0 1553.4 X_S_MAS HEKB 6
6 652.7 124.6 630.1 14.7962 HE_K_BRL HDKB 6 6 314.5 47.1759 355.8 14.6834 HD_K_BRL
SDKB 6 6 3770.2 486.8 3802.2 284.2 SD_K_BRL CKB
6 6 3458.5 427.3 3419.6 233.0 C_K_BRL XKB 6 6 2403.3 215.5 2371.3 80.1473 X_K_BRL
HEKA 6 6 553.2 119.6 491.9 13.7610 HE_K_ARG HDKA 6 6 434.2 66.7580 351.1 13.1958 HD_K_ARG
HEMA 6 6 594.7 70.0778 599.8 35.2578 HE_M_ARG HDMA 6 6 289.3 42.8746 279.9
14.1418 HD_M_ARG SDKA 6 6 1021.2 330.8 950.7 112.5 SD_K_ARG
SDMA 6 6 404.3 61.0694 423.8 39.2873 SD_M_ARG CKA 6 6 646.3 324.6 542.4 47.9423 C_K_ARG
CMA 6 6 346.5 47.3487 389.2 7.5433 C_M_ARG XKA 6 6 5278.7 723.2 5349.2 659.1 X_K_ARG
XMA 6 6 1086.0 146.1 1066.5 142.7 X_M_ARG HEKUSA 6 6 618.1 82.8611 635.7 16.2804 HE_K_USA
HERUSA 6 6 699.7 103.4 691.1 22.5908 HE_R_USA HMRUSA 6
6 663.5 85.2603 626.8 22.8532 HM_R_USA HDRUSA 6 6 799.2 100.6 790.2 23.2554 HD_R_USA
HDKUSA 6 6 851.2 129.0 719.4 93.0003 HD_K_USA MRUSA
6 6 780.8 257.1 752.1 79.8452 M_R_USA SDKUSA 6 6 9009.7 675.5 8853.7 815.7 SD_K_USA
SDRUSA 6 6 1056.2 330.4 1035.5 133.7 SD_R_USA
CKUSA 6 6 7988.5 373.3 7164.2 250.3 C_K_USA CRUSA 6 6 986.5 329.2 946.4 90.9785 C_R_USA
XKUSA 6 6 770.8 327.3 926.8 68.7315 X_K_USA
XRUSA 6 6 177.7 62.4873 169.6 32.1530 X_R_USA HERCD 6 6 623.5 95.1236 595.9 30.7392 HE_R_CD
HDRCD 6 6 664.6 80.4034 631.2 32.3062 HD_R_CD
CRCD 6 6 383.7 42.6177 445.0 5.9737 C_R_CD XRCD 6 6 1156.5 163.0 1018.7 217.9 X_R_CD
HMSP 6 6 451.7 69.3457 563.7 65.7654 HM_S_PKT
CSP 6 6 1786.2 343.6 1681.9 121.0 C_S_PKT MSP 6 6 1782.8 349.0 1785.7 267.0 M_S_PKT
HMMMS 6 6 590.9 72.5731 581.4 54.4088 HM_M_MS
CMMS 6 6 241.7 68.9715 203.5 39.4944 C_M_MS MMMS 6 6 241.0 68.5915 221.9 36.8400 M_M_MS
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
HMKEU 6 6 631.8 83.0240 606.7 8.6615 HM_K_EU HMSEU 6 6 541.7 58.8013 580.3 45.9824 HM_S_EU
HMREU 6 6 739.8 82.3895 689.7 18.5870 HM_R_EU
HMMEU 6 6 720.8 87.3663 715.1 26.9639 HM_M_EU CKEU 6 6 1675.1 78.1868 1662.8 75.6275 C_K_E_U
CSEU 6 6 2740.7 144.8 2640.9 70.2554 C_S_EU
CREU 6 6 2449.7 48.7441 2435.5 211.0 C_R_EU CMEU 6 6 2051.4 62.9239 2036.4 170.6 C_M_EU
MKEU 6 6 1287.4 527.0 912.7 58.0337 M_K_EU
MSEU 6 6 5453.3 851.8 5036.8 511.8 M_S_EU MREU 6 6 2189.7 772.4 2054.4 196.5 M_R_EU
MMEU 6 6 2045.0 439.2 1963.7 315.1 M_M_EU HMSC 6 6 491.8 76.8346 525.9 48.4792 HM_S_C
HMKC 6 6 564.6 85.7398 553.2 7.8212 HM_K_C HMRC 6 6 612.7 58.8222 599.8 46.9929 HM_R_C
CSC 6 6 4617.2 797.2 4335.6 814.5 C_S_C CKC 6 6 3090.9 148.1 2976.9
176.9 C_K_C CRC 6 6 4556.5 297.4 4567.7 277.0 C_R_C
MSC 6 6 4956.8 688.6 4673.1 832.6 M_S_C MKC 6 6 2250.0 587.0
1821.2 318.5 M_K_C MRC 6 6 260.6 133.3 211.2 167.4 M_R_C
HMSID 6 6 442.7 79.3509 530.0 51.0814 HM_S_ID HMKID 6 6 549.0 99.7131 524.3 27.2397 HM_K_ID
CSID 6 6 3932.5 756.0 3962.0 443.3 C_S_ID CKID 6 6 2504.5 358.3 2373.1 172.6 C_K_ID
MSID 6 6
3907.0 826.2 4123.7 699.5 M_S_ID MKID 6 6 1363.0 462.2 1222.5 169.7 M_K_ID
HMKIR 6 6 583.1 77.3203 547.3 19.1773 HM_K_IR HMMIR 6
6 639.2 100.8 597.3 67.4164 HM_M_IR CKIR 6 6 749.3 55.6657 729.0 21.4364 C_K_IR
CMIR 6 6 131.7 82.1819 141.1 22.4852 C_M_IR MKIR
6 6 634.5 82.9765 641.4 69.8878 M_K_IR MMIR 6 6 117.8 80.9924 142.9 26.1090 M_M_IR
XSW 6 6 27491.0 4643.1 25932.1 3220.2 X_SWT_W MSW 6 6 26917.2 4931.5 26436.7 4720.2 M_SWT_W
XKW 6 6 10779.8 987.2 10974.2 1079.6 X_KDL_W MKW 6 6 10360.1 888.8 9423.0 660.9 M_KDL_W
XRW 6 6 3428.7 877.4 3282.9 920.0 X_RAPE_W MRW 6 6 3496.1 1016.9 3282.7 402.5 M_RAPE_W
XMW 6 6 4146.6 751.6
4127.1 774.3 X_MTHR_W MMW 6 6 4041.7 597.1 3966.3 383.8 M_MTHR_W
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS
Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square Label HSW 6 49.7296 11.8238 68.3155 15.3112 89.2832 21.3363
-.2693 H_SWT_W HKW 6 -73.8499
-8.9309 114.7 16.8255 134.5 18.3878 -.6718 H_KDL_W
HRW 6 -69.3046 -8.9044 69.3046 8.9044 87.0803 10.7530
-.5514 H_RAPE_W HMW 6 -49.1862
-4.1557 101.5 12.8497 140.1 16.1602 -.1641 H_MTHR_W
LASMIN 6 -4.9212
-0.5640 23.4910 4.1508 28.1365 5.0697 0.6803 L_TM_PBN LASMIS 6 -70.1342
-1.3673 246.2 11.7308 273.1 13.0779 0.2884 L_TM_PBS LASMIR 6 3.8068 0.3406 68.5074 4.2989
81.7144 5.3433 0.9022 L_TM_PR YIESIN 6
-0.2039 -3.4210 0.4549 13.6974 0.4974 15.2079 0.4331 YELD_PBN
YIESIS 6 -0.1219
-2.5584 0.3011 8.8047 0.3246 9.4122 0.4186 YELD_PBS
YIESIR 6 -0.2146
-6.2757 0.3494 11.3540 0.4113 13.0434
-.9197 YELD_PR PRODSI 6
-1147.0 -4.6529 2212.7 14.3560 2506.0 15.2150 0.4445 PRDS_INA
HDSI 6 -506.9
-9.0893 596.5 11.2457 738.5 13.1615 -.9763 HD_S_INA
HESI 6 46.4280 13.7250 64.0363 17.6732 84.6839 25.0854 -.2381 HE_S_INA
SDSI 6 96.3020 15.0383 1128.8 32.0767 1331.4 44.9617 0.3254 SD_S_INA CSI 6 18.2700 0.4513 39.3436 0.9244 43.6448 1.0403 0.9865 C_S_IINA
SXSI 6 -1165.3
-4.9247 2198.7 18.0841 2500.6 18.9045 0.4711 SX_S_INA XSI 6
-1243.3 -7.6811 1869.4 17.4851 2039.2 18.9864 0.4314 X_S_INA
HESM 6 64.9917 21.5934 102.2 28.6838 127.9 39.1486
-.8250 HE_S_MAS XSM 6
-315.6 -2.4133 568.4 4.3411 670.0 5.2594 0.7068 X_S_MAS
HEKB 6 -22.5959 -0.7166 92.8083 13.8359 112.4 15.8891 0.0231 HE_K_BRL
HDKB 6 41.3142 15.3037 48.6085 17.2815 60.3639 22.3806
-.9647 HD_K_BRL SDKB 6 31.9941 1.4587 194.0 5.1731 215.4 5.7560 0.7649 SD_K_BRL
CKB 6 -38.9130 -0.5386 178.0 5.0069 204.3 5.6287 0.7257 C_K_BRL
XKB 6 -31.9941 -0.6426 194.0 8.1550 215.4 9.1513
-.1992 X_K_BRL HEKA 6 -61.3114
-7.6384 102.2 17.2595 126.7 19.5635 -.3462 HE_K_ARG
HDKA 6 -83.1362 -17.7498 84.4386 18.1516 97.0498 20.3800 -1.536 HD_K_ARG
HEMA 6 5.0155 1.6549 34.4139 6.3333 43.8955 8.7121 0.5292 HE_M_ARG HDMA 6
-9.4169 -1.5075 32.2706 11.5871 36.3583 13.3879 0.1370 HD_M_ARG
SDKA 6 -70.5011 0.2686 264.0 23.5425 320.1 26.0174 -.1237 SD_K_ARG
SDMA 6 19.4715 6.7278 47.1453 13.1052 55.3481 17.2211 0.0143 SD_M_ARG CKA 6
-104.0 -1.7953 210.0 28.5366 276.5 31.5855 0.1294 C_K_ARG
CMA 6 42.6586 14.5615 45.3069 15.2423 62.7587 23.2496
-1.108 C_M_ARG XKA 6 70.5011 1.6021 264.0 5.1265 320.1 6.3220 0.7649 X_K_ARG
XMA 6 -19.4715 -1.6455 47.1453 4.4329 55.3481 5.2986 0.8277 X_M_ARG
HERUSA 6 -8.6098 0.4229 78.7998 11.3524 87.9534 12.7745 0.1315 HE_R_USA
HMRUSA 6 -36.6379 -4.3227 72.9212 10.7057 81.4462 11.5698
-.0950 HM_R_USA HDRUSA 6
-9.0089 0.0332 79.0577 9.8773 83.7581 10.3715 0.1683 HD_R_USA HDKUSA 6
-131.8 -13.4948 178.2 20.3670 203.5 22.3802 -1.988 HD_K_USA
MRUSA 6 -28.6914 2.3107 137.9 17.5156 169.1 20.8969 0.4810 M_R_USA SDKUSA 6
-156.0 -1.8102 269.5 3.0280 305.6 3.4625 0.7544 SD_K_USA
SDRUSA 6 -20.6413 2.5523 176.0 15.8971 199.2 16.5494 0.5640 SD_R_USA CKUSA 6
-824.3 -10.1385 850.1 10.4834 929.3 11.3987 -6.435 C_K_USA
CRUSA 6 -40.0728 1.7511 194.6 18.4348 226.8 19.2874 0.4305 C_R_USA
XKUSA 6 156.0 36.3753 269.5 45.4145 305.6 57.1163 -.0460 X_K_USA
XRUSA 6 -8.0501 2.9246 50.3183 25.9654 61.7020 28.6604
-.1700 X_R_USA HERCD 6 -27.6021
-3.0178 64.5809 9.9931 74.5802 11.0546 0.2623 HE_R_CD HDRCD 6 -33.4191
-4.2426 53.5243 7.6941 63.7681 8.8570 0.2452 HD_R_CD CRCD 6 61.3099 17.1886 68.1126 18.6674 75.0330 20.9967
-2.720 C_R_CD XRCD 6
-137.8 -12.5278 137.8 12.5278 158.3 14.3799 -.1315 X_R_CD
HMSP 6 112.0 28.6029 135.8 32.9842 160.5 40.1218 -5.430 HM_S_PKT
CSP 6 -104.3
-3.7769 184.8 9.8491 247.1 12.4977 0.3796 C_S_PKT MSP
6 2.8827 0.9800 77.1093 4.3415 100.7 5.3139 0.9002 M_S_PKT HMMMS 6
-9.5753 -1.0128 37.9575 6.7312 45.7823 8.4321 0.5224 HM_M_MS
CMMS 6 -38.1971 -13.4799 44.0809 16.2166 55.2898 18.3937 0.2289 C_M_MS MMMS
6 -19.1331 -4.2965 35.6790 14.7686 43.7250 18.0942 0.5124 M_M_MS
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS
Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square Label HEKUSA 6 17.6305 4.3259 66.7245 11.1124 76.8293 13.1940
-.0317 HE_K_USA HMKEU 6 -25.0866
-2.5524 67.0031 10.2184 82.7491 12.2543 -.1921 HM_K_EU
HMSEU 6 38.6327 8.4441 79.2902 15.2644 85.1121 17.1224 -1.514 HM_S_EU
HMREU 6 -50.0582 -5.6585 77.5901 9.9034 100.8 12.5129
-.7977 HM_R_EU HMMEU 6
-5.6639 0.2313 60.1578 8.5426 66.2736 9.6874 0.3095 HM_M_EU CKEU 6 -12.3315
-0.5923 77.0600 4.5416 92.2974 5.3986 -.6722 C_K_EU
CSEU 6 -99.7526 -3.4499 138.1 4.9555 161.4 5.7261
-.4906 C_S_EU CREU 6 -14.2018
-0.5378 183.2 7.4440 200.9 8.1298 -19.39 C_R_EU
CMEU 6 -14.9462 -0.8310 88.3530 4.2864 111.6 5.3858
-2.774 C_M_EU MKEU 6
-374.7 -17.5257 488.8 32.6642 603.8 36.4001 -.5754 M_K_EU
MSEU 6 -416.5
-6.8326 474.2 8.2371 539.6 9.1385 0.5184 M_S_EU
MREU 6 -135.3 2.6955 519.1 25.4237 562.7 28.0644 0.3630 M_R_EU
MMEU 6 -81.3382 -2.4498 196.8 9.5005 229.7 10.5162 0.6719 M_M_EU
HMSC 6 34.0799 9.0542 64.0641 14.7605 78.9366 19.6805
-.2666 HM_S_C HMKC 6 -11.3740 0.0132 66.6296 11.9950 80.7251 14.9263
-.0637 HM_K_C HMRC 6 -12.9336
-1.8755 28.8685 4.7412 30.3349 4.9858 0.6809 HM_R_C CSC
6 -281.6
-5.9213 343.1 7.0642 465.1 9.3162 0.5916 C_S_C CKC 6
-114.0 -3.6977 136.6 4.4161 143.2 4.6173
-.1223 C_K_C CRC 6 11.2188 0.2801 35.4923 0.8198 50.1640 1.2009 0.9659 C_R_C
MSC 6
-283.6 -5.8856 381.9 7.6716 471.0 9.3535 0.4385 M_S_C
MKC 6 -428.8 -15.0922 584.3 25.0097 651.3 27.1142
-.4771 M_K_C MRC 6 -49.3913 -21.1961 128.4 55.3480 137.1 57.9408
-.2698 M_R_C HMSID 6 87.2942 24.0803 123.7 30.8644 139.6 36.7166
-2.712 HM_S_ID HMKID 6 -24.6641
-2.5797 59.9308 10.3859 73.4825 12.1037 0.3483 HM_K_ID CSID 6 29.5410 2.3863 397.6 10.4862 445.8 12.2624 0.5827 C_S_ID
CKID 6 -131.4
-4.0206 269.8 10.5663 296.4 11.1944 0.1790 C_K_ID MSID 6 216.7 7.1823 478.7 13.7353 542.1 17.0066 0.4834 M_S_ID
MKID 6 -140.5
-4.5069 267.4 19.1835 309.4 20.3309 0.4624 M_K_ID
HMKIR 6 -35.8195 -4.7014 73.2130 12.3770 80.4811 13.4098
-.3001 HM_K_IR HMMIR 6 -41.8405
-5.7736 58.2126 8.9183 62.9583 9.4149 0.5322 HM_M_IR CKIR 6 -20.2960
-2.3945 39.0496 5.1162 42.5803 5.4909 0.2979 C_K_IR CMIR 6 9.4697 71.9308 66.2077 99.9590 69.4691 147.9 0.1425 C_M_IR
MKIR 6 6.8579 1.4951 29.8866 4.6968 39.1677 6.3041 0.7326 M_K_IR MMIR 6 25.0681 138.3
63.9260 158.9 71.6784 264.2 0.0601 M_M_IR XSW 6
-1559.0 -5.0160 1765.7 5.9966 2054.0 6.7203 0.7652 X_SWT_W
MSW 6 -480.5
-1.7047 609.8 2.2567 732.0 2.6776 0.9736 M_SWT_W XKW 6 194.5 1.7943 298.3 2.7302 366.3 3.3822 0.8348 X_KDL_W
MKW 6 -937.2
-8.8271 937.2 8.8271 1098.8 10.1936 -.8337 M_KDL_W
XRW 6 -145.8
-4.7199 161.9 5.0991 197.4 6.0562 0.9393 X_RAPE_W MRW
6 -213.4
-1.0527 621.3 18.3187 685.7 20.6143 0.4544 M_RAPE_W XMW 6 -19.4715
-0.5562 47.1453 1.2197 55.3481 1.5228 0.9935 X_MTHR_W MMW 6 -75.4032
-1.2024 231.0 5.6018 259.1 6.1539 0.7741 M_MTHR_W
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U HSW 6 7971.5 0.45 0.31 0.06 0.63 0.06 0.63 0.1721 0.0823
HKW 6 18102.9 -0.55 0.30 0.28 0.42 0.45 0.25 0.2058 0.1098
HRW 6 7583.0 0.82 0.63 0.15 0.21 0.29 0.08 0.1181 0.0621 HMW 6 19628.3 0.16 0.12 0.04 0.84 0.33 0.55 0.1865 0.0970
LASMIN 6 791.7 0.84 0.03 0.06 0.91 0.27 0.70 0.0495 0.0249 LASMIS 6 74599.7 0.70 0.07 0.22 0.72 0.68 0.26 0.1267 0.0647
LASMIR 6 6677.2 0.95 0.00 0.07 0.93 0.01 0.98 0.0468 0.0234
YIESIN 6 0.2474 0.82 0.17 0.25 0.59 0.54 0.29 0.1443 0.0749 YIESIS 6 0.1054 0.78 0.14 0.19 0.67 0.52 0. 34 0.0946 0.0483
YIESIR 6 0.1692 -0.18 0.27 0.22 0.50 0.14 0.58 0.1398 0.0727
PRODSI 6 6280008 0.94 0.21 0.57 0.22 0.70 0.09 0.1698 0.0894 HDSI 6 545314
-0.08 0.47 0.03 0.50 0.37 0.16 0.1461 0.0771 HESI 6 7171.4 0.44 0.30 0.05 0.65 0.09 0.61 0.1934 0.0922
SDSI 6 1772586 0.64 0.01 0.11 0.88 0.61 0.39 0.2613 0 .1324 CSI 6 1904.9 0.99 0.18 0.03 0.79 0.05 0.78 0.0100 0.0050
SXSI 6 6253190 0.93 0.22 0.54 0.24 0 .68 0.10 0.2121 0.1137 XSI 6 4158470 0.94 0.37
0.41 0.22 0.52 0.10 0.1832 0.0982 HESM 6 16370.2
-0.03 0.26 0.19 0.55 0.10 0.64 0.2917 0.1369 XSM 6 448914 0.91 0.22 0.19 0.59 0.07 0.71 0.0498 0.0252
HEKB 6 12643.1 0.32 0.04 0.04 0.92 0.80 0.16 0.1697 0.0870
HDKB 6 3643.8 0.08 0.47 0.03 0.51 0.24 0.29 0.1902 0.0896 SDKB 6 46417.9 0.95 0.02 0.58 0.40 0 .74 0.24 0.0568 0.0283
CKB 6 41722.7 0.95 0.04 0.59 0.37 0.75 0.21 0.0587 0.0296 XKB 6 46417.9
-0.05 0.02 0.15 0.83 0.33 0.65 0.0893 0.0450 HEKA 6 16058.9
-0.08 0.23 0.03 0.74 0.58 0.18 0.2247 0.1200 HDKA 6 9418.7 0.92 0.73 0.21 0.06 0.25 0.01 0.2213 0.1229
HEMA 6 1926.8 0.78 0.01 0.17 0.82 0.52 0.46 0. 0734 0.0366 HDMA 6 1321.9 0.46 0.07 0.02 0.91 0.52 0.41 0.1245 0.0636
SDKA 6 102471 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.89 0.39 0.56 0.3006 0.1584 SDMA 6 3063.4 0.43 0.12 0.05 0.83 0.13 0.75 0.1356 0.0664
CKA 6 76431.3 0.93 0.14 0.70 0.16 0.83 0.02 0.3888 0.2203 CMA 6 3938.6
-0.34 0.46 0.12 0.42 0.34 0.20 0.1797 0.0850 XKA 6 102471 0.88 0.05 0.00 0.95 0.03 0.92 0.0602 0.0299
XMA 6 3063.4 0.92 0.12 0.02 0.86 0.00 0.87 0.0506 0.0255 HEKUSA 6 5902.7 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.95 0.63 0.32 0.1234 0.0610
HERUSA 6 7735.8 0.43 0.01 0.05 0.94 0.70 0.29 0.1246 0.0629 HMRUSA 6 6633.5 0.37 0.20 0.01 0.79 0.49 0.31 0.1219 0.0629
HDRUSA
6 7015.4 0.50 0.01 0.09 0.90 0.71 0.28 0.1041 0.0525 HDKUSA 6 41424.0
-0.15 0.42 0.25 0.33 0.03 0.55 0.2368 0.1285 MRUSA 6 28589.2 0.95 0.03 0.80 0.17 0.92 0.0 6 0.2074 0.1076
SDKUSA 6 93385.3 0.94 0.26 0.29 0.45 0.18 0.56 0.0338 0.0171 SDRUSA 6 39667.2 0.91 0.01 0.57 0.42 0.81 0.18 0.1813 0.0930
CKUSA 6 863605 -0.10 0.79 0.08 0.13 0.01 0.20 0.1162 0.0613
CRUSA 6 51419.6 0.95 0.03 0.79 0.17 0.92 0.05 0.2199 0.1144 XKUSA 6 93385.3 0.64 0.26 0.18
0.56 0.60 0.14 0.3696 0.1741 XRUSA 6 3807.1 0.11 0.02 0.14 0.84 0.20 0.78 0.3307 0.1720
HERCD 6 5562.2 0.72 0.14 0.22 0.65 0.62 0.24 0.1185 0.0608 HDRCD
6 4066.4 0.76 0.27 0.17 0.55 0.47 0.25 0.0954 0.0490 CRCD 6 5630.0
-0.77 0.67 0.22 0.11 0.20 0.13 0.1946 0.0903 XRCD 6 25056.9 0.94 0.76 0.14 0.10 0.10 0 .14 0.1358 0.0718
HMSP 6 25769.0 -0.74 0.49 0.44 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.3520 0.1569
CSP 6 61042.2 0.87 0.18 0.43 0.39 0.68 0.15 0.1362 0.0706 MSP 6 10133.3
0.97 0.00 0.42 0.57 0.55 0.45 0.0556 0.0279 HMMMS 6 2096.0 0.74 0.04 0.00 0.96 0.13 0.83 0.0770 0.0389
CMMS 6 3057.0 0.81 0.48 0.07 0.45 0.24 0.29 0.2214 0.1212
MMMS 6 1911.9 0.83 0.19 0.18 0.63 0.44 0.37 0.1756 0.0924 HMKEU 6 6847.4
-0.34 0.09 0.17 0.74 0.67 0.24 0.1301 0.0666 HMSEU 6 7244.1
-0.25 0.21 0.42 0.37 0.02 0.78 0.1564 0.0756 HMREU 6 10169.1
-0.67 0.25 0.45 0.30 0.33 0.42 0.1356 0.0703 HMMEU 6 4392.2 0.66 0.01 0.18 0.81 0.69 0.30 0.0914 0.0460
CKEU 6 8518.8 0.15 0.02 0.40 0.58 0.00 0.98 0.0550 0.0276
CSEU 6 26042.2 0.32 0.38 0.02 0.60 0.18 0.44 0.0588 0.0300
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Theil Forecast Error Statistics
MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U
CREU 6 40363.1 -0.06 0.00 0.95 0.05 0.54 0.45 0.0820 0.0411
CMEU 6 12451.8 0.86 0.02 0.91 0.07 0 .78 0.21 0.0544 0.0273 MKEU 6 364572 0.20 0.39 0.00 0.61 0.50 0.11 0.4393 0.2638
MSEU 6 291144 0.97 0.60 0.28 0.12 0.33 0.07 0.0980 0.0511 MREU 6 316682 0.91 0.06 0.68 0.26 0.87 0.07 0.2446 0.1290
MMEU 6 52746.5 0.86 0.13 0.06 0.82 0.24 0.63 0.1102 0.0564 HMSC 6 6231.0 0.29 0.19 0.09 0.72 0.11 0.71 0. 1589 0.0770
HMKC 6 6516.5
-0.19 0.02 0.07 0.91 0.78 0.20 0.1416 0.0719 HMRC 6 920.2 0.86 0.18 0.01 0.81 0.13 0.69 0.0493 0.0249
CSC 6 216289 0.87 0.37 0.05 0.58 0.00 0.63 0.0995 0.0513 CKC 6 20502.9 0.84 0.63 0.11 0.26 0.03 0.33 0.0463 0.0236
CRC 6 2516.4 0.99 0.05 0.08 0.87 0.14 0.81 0.0110 0.0055 MSC 6 221845 0.87 0.36 0.20 0.43 0.08 0.56 0.0943 0.0484
MKC 6 424133 0.42 0.43 0.01 0.56 0.14 0.42 0.2816 0.1567 MRC 6 18809.0 0.59 0.13 0.35
0.52 0.05 0.82 0.4768 0.2501 HMSID 6 19479.2
-0.66 0.39 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.57 0.3111 0.1423 HMKID 6 5399.7 0.91 0.11 0.62 0.27 0.81 0.08 0.1321 0.0680
CSID 6 198769 0.79 0.00 0.10 0.89 0.41 0.59 0.1117 0.0559
CKID 6 87848.0 0.59 0.20 0.02 0.79 0.33 0.48 0.1173 0.0604 MSID 6 293879 0.76 0.16 0.02 0.82 0.05 0 .79 0.1362 0.0665
MKID 6 95701.5 0.96 0.21 0.66 0.13 0.74 0.05 0.2168 0.1163 HMKIR 6 6477.2 0.04 0.20 0.03 0.77 0.43 0.37 0.1370 0.0709
HMMIR 6 3963.8 0.89 0.44 0.10 0.46 0.23 0.32 0.0975 0.0505
CKIR 6 1813.1 0.79 0.23 0.23 0.54 0.54 0.23 0.0567 0.0288 CMIR 6 4826.0 0.43 0.02 0.03 0.95 0.62 0.37 0.4584
0.2362 MKIR 6 1534.1 0.86 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.09 0.88 0.0613 0.0305
MMIR 6 5137.8 0.43 0.12 0.01 0.86 0.49 0.39 0.5153 0.2524 XSW 6 4219117 1.00 0.58 0.39 0.03 0.40 0.02 0.0738 0.0381
MSW 6 535875 0.99 0.43 0.05 0.52 0.07 0.50 0.0268 0.0135 XKW 6 134191 0.95 0.28 0.13 0.59 0.05 0.67 0.0339 0.0168
MKW
6 1207296 0.71 0.73 0.00 0.27 0.04 0.24 0.1057 0.0554 XRW 6 38969.3 0.99 0.55 0.06 0.39 0.04 0.42 0.0561 0.0286
MRW 6 470189 0.84 0.10 0.36 0.54 0. 67 0.23 0.1896 0.0991 XMW 6 3063.4 1.00 0.12 0.16 0.71 0.14 0.74 0.0132 0.0066
MMW 6 67107.4 0.94 0.08 0.39 0.53 0.56 0.35 0.0635 0.0321
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U
HSW 6 0.0396 0.63 0.30 0.15 0.55 0.00 0.70 1.0069 0.4373 HKW 6 0.0470 0.25 0.30 0.07 0.62 0.11 0.58 1.1226 0.7117
HRW 6 0.0157 0.78 0.65 0.06 0.29 0.19 0.16 0.9895 0.6592 HMW 6 0.0378 0.45 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.26 0.61 0.9143 0.6136
LASMIN 6 0.00215 0.95 0.05 0.57 0.39 0.73 0.23 0.5067 0.3209
LASMIS 6 0.0187 0.66 0.01 0.81 0.19 0.49 0.50 1.2094 0.4547 LASMIR 6 0.00353 0.27 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.58
0.42 0.5623 0.3070 YIESIN 6 0.0296 0.80 0.14 0.17 0.69 0.48 0.38 0.6948 0.4721
YIESIS 6 0.0107 0.67 0.12 0.00 0.88 0.22 0.67 0.7385 0.4614 YIESIR 6 0.0190 0.12 0.26 0.43 0.31 0.02 0.72 1.6221 0.7236
PRODSI 6 0.0320 0.45 0.11 0.28 0.61 0.00 0.89 0.9083 0.4799 HDSI 6 0.0280 0.86 0.41 0.23 0.36 0.42 0.17 0.8648 0.5218
HESI 6 0.0525 0.63 0.30 0.18 0.51 0.01 0.69 1.0211 0.4319 SDSI 6 0.1780 0.79 0.00 0.05
0.95 0.32 0.68 0.6100 0.3616 CSI 6 0.000120 0.57 0.19 0.34 0.47 0.05 0.76 0.2090 0.0997
SXSI 6 0.0558 0.38 0.10 0.21 0.69 0.01 0.89 0.8934 0.4997 XSI
6 0.0423 0.27 0.21 0.51 0.28 0.10 0.69 1.0745 0.5434 HESM 6 0.1188 0.72 0.29 0.13 0.57 0.00 0.70 0.9010 0.4014
XSM 6 0.00347 0.73 0.24 0.05 0.72 0.30 0 .46 0.5868 0.3740 HEKB 6 0.0275 0.72 0.05 0.04 0.90 0.35 0.60 0.7233 0.4425
HDKB 6 0.0394 0.53 0.49 0.12 0.39 0.00 0.51 1.3616 0.5613 SDKB 6 0.00367
0.49 0.05 0.27 0.68 0.00 0.95 0.7534 0.3506 CKB 6 0.00348 0.29 0.01 0.49 0.50 0.03 0.95 0.8344 0.4109
XKB 6 0.00763 0.61 0.02 0.12 0.86 0.01 0.97 0.8521 0.4432
HEKA 6 0.0612 0.36 0.22 0.02 0.75 0.20 0.57 0.9959 0.6686 HDKA 6 0.0514 0.59 0.75 0.12 0.13 0.03 0.23 1.5571 0.7227
HEMA 6 0.00547 0.79 0.02 0.02 0.96 0.05 0.93 0.6267 0.3356 HDMA 6 0.0221 0.56 0.01 0.57 0.42 0.17 0.82 1.0334 0.4456
SDKA 6 0.0966 -0.08 0.01 0.51 0.48 0.00 0.99 1.2480 0.6569
SDMA 6 0.0161 0.92 0.09 0.14 0.77 0.31 0.60 0.4541 0.2548
CKA 6 0.1716 -0.04 0.04 0.47 0.49 0.00 0.96 1.1409 0.6202
CMA 6 0.0346 0.74 0.48 0.08 0.44 0. 00 0.52 1.0120 0.4401 XKA 6 0.00338 0.92 0.03 0.24 0.73 0.44 0.53 0.4351 0.2485
XMA 6 0.00335 0.98 0.16 0.07 0.77 0.13 0.71 0.2428 0.1279 HEKUSA 6 0.0154 0.48 0.06 0.07 0.87 0.08 0.85 0.9408 0.5391
HERUSA 6 0.0158 0.03 0.00 0.75 0.25 0.14 0.86 1.6304 0.6403 HMRUSA 6 0.0162 0.76 0.21 0.06 0.73 0.32 0.47 0.7527 0.4690
HDRUSA 6 0.0109 0.52 0.00 0.47 0.53 0.07 0.93 1.1508 0.4975 HDKUSA 6 0.0629
-0.07 0.41 0.06 0.53 0.28 0.31 1.3572 0.6561
MRUSA 6 0.0538 0.37 0.00 0.40 0.60 0.01 0.99 0.8565 0.4106 SDKUSA 6 0.00125 0.90 0.30 0.02 0.69 0.10 0.60 0.5254 0.2850
SDRUSA 6 0.0383 0.19 0.01 0.37 0.63 0.00 0.99 0.8332 0.4120
CKUSA 6 0.0133 0.10 0.80 0.04 0.17 0.03 0.17 2.4327 0.7287 CRUSA 6 0.0566 0.06 0.00 0.51 0.49 0.00 1 .00 0.9783 0.4785
XKUSA 6 0.2328 0.70 0.35 0.20 0.46 0.03 0.63 1.0275 0.4283 XRUSA 6 0.1180 0.63 0.02 0.05 0.93 0.06 0.93 0.7085 0.3917
HERCD 6 0.0139 0.71 0.13 0.06 0.81 0.38 0.49 0.7755 0.4666
HDRCD 6 0.00933 0.85 0.28 0.15 0.57 0.37 0.36 0.7016 0.4166 CRCD 6 0.0421 0.25 0.66 0.14 0.20 0.00 0.34 2.1356
0.6751 XRCD 6 0.0394 0.96 0.66 0.14 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.5516 0.3450
HMSP 6 0.1572 0.26 0.47 0.38 0.15 0.10 0.43 2.4675 0.6998 CSP 6 0.0220 0.54 0.12 0.13 0.75 0.01 0.87 0.8309 0.4635
MSP 6 0.00415 0.92 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.03 0.95 0.3503 0.1781 HMMMS 6 0.00535 0.73 0.05 0.01 0.95 0.21 0.74 0.6498 0.3580
CMMS
6 0.0668 0.89 0.61 0.02 0.37 0.09 0.30 0.5668 0.3497 MMMS 6 0.0818 0.88 0.01 0.67 0.33 0.45 0.54 0.6266 0.2704
HMKEU 6 0.0168 0.61 0.09 0.01 0.90 0. 13 0.78 0.8292 0.4810 HMSEU 6 0.0272 0.51 0.22 0.31 0.47 0.03 0.75 1.2476 0.5192
HMREU 6 0.0191 0.42 0.22 0.09 0.69 0.06 0.72 1.0951 0.5805 HMMEU 6 0.00742 0.65 0.00 0.13 0.87 0.00 0.99 0.7853 0.4014
CKEU 6 0.00307 0.47 0.02 0.16 0.82 0.02 0.96 0.9713 0.5188 CSEU 6 0.00346
-0.20 0.39 0.23 0.38 0.08 0.54 1.4780 0.8369 CREU 6 0.00782 0.26 0.01 0.30 0.69 0.01 0.98 1.0807 0.5753
CMEU 6 0.00301 -0.01 0.02 0.93
0.04 0.58 0.39 3.2747 0.7850
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008
Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change
MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U
MKEU 6 0.2331 0.01 0.27 0.35 0.38 0.00 0.73 1.3806 0.7478
MSEU 6 0.00966 0.72 0.56 0.27 0.17 0.12 0.32 0.9467 0.4971 MREU 6 0.0946 0.32 0.00 0.39 0.61 0.00 1.00
1.0631 0.5169 MMEU 6 0.0145 0.52 0.09 0.03 0.88 0.14 0.78 0.7763 0.4743
HMSC 6 0.0321 0.66 0.19 0.15 0.65 0.00 0.81 0.9014 0.4143 HMKC 6 0.0191 0.61 0.01 0.05 0.93 0.06 0.93 0.8201 0.4531
HMRC 6 0.00252 0.86 0.17 0.01 0.82 0.13 0.70 0.5527 0.2933 CSC 6 0.0116 0.88 0.42 0.08
0.50 0.01 0.57 0.4748 0.2562 CKC 6 0.00232 0.72 0.66 0.02 0.32 0.14 0.20 0.9768 0.6621
CRC 6 0.000141 0.93 0.05 0.45 0.50 0.65 0.30 0.3319 0.1725 MSC
6 0.0122 0.56 0.41 0.00 0.59 0.11 0.48 0.7416 0.4923 MKC 6 0.1770 0.84 0.43 0.12 0.45 0.30 0.27 0.6933 0.4676
MRC 6 1.0590 0.87 0.13 0.04 0.83 0.19 0 .68 0.4824 0.2774 HMSID 6 0.1290 0.53 0.42 0.44 0.14 0.21 0.37 2.2791 0.6530
HMKID 6 0.0156 0.62 0.07 0.10 0.83 0.02 0.91 0.8634 0.4471 CSID 6 0.0146
0.71 0.03 0.27 0.70 0.03 0.94 0.8092 0.3716 CKID 6 0.0156 0.76 0.18 0.00 0.82 0.14 0.68 0.6907 0.4046
MSID 6 0.0238 0.77 0.21 0.28 0.51 0.07 0.72 0.8425 0.3550
MKID 6 0.0832 0.95 0.16 0.50 0.34 0.64 0.20 0.5305 0.3331 HMKIR 6 0.0208 0.71 0.20 0.01 0.80 0.19 0.61 0.7753 0.4643
HMMIR 6 0.00792 0.79 0.47 0.01 0.52 0.10 0.43 0.8029 0.3797 CKIR 6 0.00289 0.43 0.19 0.59 0.22 0.22 0.59 1.4025 0.4832
CMIR 6 2.0679 0.65 0.04 0.12 0.84 0.01 0.95 0.6799 0.3321 MKIR
6 0.00339 0.86 0.04 0.02 0.94 0.01 0.95 0.4400 0.2300 MMIR 6 8.9090 0.59 0.14 0.33 0.54 0.04 0.82 0.8848 0.3771
XSW 6 0.00549 0.73 0.55 0.25 0.20 0. 11 0.34 0.6490 0.3678 MSW 6 0.000968 0.93 0.40 0.00 0.60 0.03 0.57 0.2268 0.1222
XKW 6 0.000990 0.97 0.28 0.02 0.70 0.06 0.66 0.2949 0.1492 MKW 6 0.0114 0.76 0.73 0.07 0.20 0.01 0.26 1.3259 0.5900
XRW 6 0.00462 0.96 0.60 0.02 0.38 0.05 0.35 0.3859 0.2139 MRW 6 0.0484 0.24 0.02 0.51 0.48 0.03 0.95 1.1153 0.5338
XMW 6 0.000286 1.00 0.14 0.01 0.85 0.01 0.84 0.0938 0.0474 MMW 6 0.00480 0.92 0.03 0.10
0.87 0.01 0.95 0.4003 0.1980
Lampiran 10. Program Peramalan Variabel Eksogen dan Peramalan Tahap Awal Variabel Endogen dalam Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati
dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-2025
OPTIONS nodate nonumber;
DATA TESIS;
SET ANALISIS;
run
; PROC FORECAST
DATA=TESIS outdata method=STEPAR trend=
2
lead=
17
OUT=EXSO; id
TAHUN; var
TREN HCOW HCOW MXSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI LASIN LASIS LASIR ERI PESI ENDSTOKSI IPI POPI ERM
PESM PRODSM STOKSM CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA
SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD
STOKRCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS POPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU PRODMEU TMSC TMKC TMRC
ERC IPC POPC PRODRC TMKID TMSID PRODKID ERID IPID POPID TMKIR TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR
HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI XSI CSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB XKB CKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA
CKA XKA CMA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDKUSA HDRUSA XKUSA XRUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA HERCD HDRCD XRCD CRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS
MMMS CMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID
HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR;
RUN ;
PROC PRINT DATA
=EXSO FIRSTOBS=
25
; RUN
; DATA
RAMAL1; SET
EXSO; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HSW=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HKW=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HRW= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMW=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN LASMIN=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
LASMIS= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN LASMIR=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN YIESIN=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
YIESIS= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN YIESIR=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HDSI=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HESI= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CSI=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN XSI=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HESM= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN XSM=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HEKB=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HDKB= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN XKB=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CKB=
1 ;
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HEKA= 1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HDKA=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CKA=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN XKA=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HEMA= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HDMA=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CMA=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
XMA= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HEKUSA=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HERUSA=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HMRUSA= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HDKUSA=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HDRUSA=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
XKUSA= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN XRUSA=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MRUSA=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
CKUSA= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CRUSA=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HERCD=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HDRCD= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN XRCD=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CRCD=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HMSP= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CSP=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MSP=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HMMMS= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CMMS=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MMMS=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HMKEU= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMSEU=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMREU=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HMMEU= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CKEU=
1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CSEU=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CREU=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
CMEU= 1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MKEU=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
MSEU= 1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MREU=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
MMEU= 1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMSC=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMKC=
1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMRC=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CSC=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
CKC= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CRC=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MSC=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
MKC= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MRC=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMSID=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HMKID= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CSID=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CKID=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
MSID= 1
; if
TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MKID=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN HMKIR=
1 ;
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
HMMIR= 1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CKIR=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN CMIR=
1
; if
TAHUN 2008
AND _TYPE_= FORECAST
THEN MKIR=
1 ;
if TAHUN
2008 AND _TYPE_=
FORECAST THEN
MMIR= 1
; RUN
; PROC PRINT
DATA =RAMAL1;
RUN ;
DATA ENDOG;
SET RAMAL1;
LLASIN = LAGLASIN; LLASIS
= LAGLASIS; LASIR = LAGLASIR; L3LASIN = LAG3LASIN;L3LASIS = LAG3LASIS;L3LASIR =LAG3LASIR;
LHCPI = LAGHCPI; LUSPI = LAGUSPI; LSDSI = LAGSDSI;
STOKSI = LAGENDSTOKSI; LLASMIN
= LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS;
LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN;
LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR;
DLASMIN = LASMIN-LLASMIN; DLASMIS = LASMIS-LLASMIS; DLASMIR = LASMIR-LLASMIR;
RSDSICSI = SDSICSI
100 ;
RCSDSI = CSISDSI 100
; RLASMSIN = DLASMINLASIN
100
; RLASMSIS = DLASMISLASIS
100
; RLASMSIR = DLASMIRLASIR
100 ;
RUSPI = USPI-LUSPILUSPI 100
; RHCPI = HCPI-LHCPILHCPI
100 ; RSDSI = SDSI-LSDSILSDSI;
RCSI = CSI-LCSILCSI; RXSI = XSI-LXSILXSI;
RRSDSIRCSI = RSDSIRCSI; DSDSICSI = SDSI-CSI;
RTSDSI = PRODSI+STOKSIXSI+CSI; RHCOW = HCOW-LHCOWLHCOW; RHESI = HESI-LHESILHESI;
RHDSI = HDSI-LHDSILHDSI; RHMMKIR = HMMIRHMKIR;
RHMSID = HMSID-LHMSIDLHMSID; RCSID = CSID-LCSIDLCSID;
RRHMSIDRCSID = RHMSIDRCSID; RHMMMS = HMMMS-LHMMMSLHMMMS;
RHMSP = HMSP-LHMSPLHMSP; RCSP = CSP-LCSPLCSP;
RHERCD = HERCD-LHERCDLHERCD; RHDRUSAHCOW = HDRUSAHCOW;
RHDKUSAHCOW = HDKUSAHCOW; RHEKUSA = HEKUSA-LHEKUSALHEKUSA;
RHEDKUSA = HEKUSAHDKUSA; RHDMKA = HDMAHDKA;
RHDKA = HDKA-LHDKALHDKA; RHDKB = HDKB-LHDKBLHDKB;
RRHDKBRHCOW = RHDKBRHCOW; RCMMS = CMMS-LCMMSLCMMS;
RHDKRUSA = HDKUSAHDRUSA; LPOPI = LAGPOPI;LHCOW = LAGHCOW;LCSI = LAGCSI;LXSI=LAGXSI;
LXSM = LAGXSM; LMSC
= LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU; LMSID = LAGMSID;LMSP = LAGMSP; LCSC
= LAGCSC; LCSEU = LAGCSEU;LCSID = LAGCSID;LCSP
= LAGCSP; LHSW
= LAGHSW; LHESI = LAGHESI; LHESM
= LAGHESM; LHDSI = LAGHDSI;
LHMSC = LAGHMSC; LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU;
LHMSID= LAGHMSID; LHMSP = LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA;
LXKB = LAGXKB; LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC; LMKID = LAGMKID;
LMKEU = LAGMKEU; LMKIR = LAGMKIR;
LCKA = LAGCKA; LCKB = LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA;
LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID = LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU;
LCKIR = LAGCKIR; LHKW = LAGHKW; LHEKA = LAGHEKA;
LHEKB = LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC = LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID; LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU;
LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD; LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA;
LMREU = LAGMREU; LMRC = LAGMRC;
LCRCD = LAGCRCD;
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA;
LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC;
LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD;
LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA; LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU;
LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU; LMMMS
= LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA; LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR;
LHMW = LAGHMW; LHEMA = LAGHEMA;
LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU; LHMMMS
= LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR; LHDKB = LAGHDKB;
LHDKA = LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA;
LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR;
XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW; XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW;
XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; XMW = XMA+XMRW;
MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW;
MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW;
SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI;
SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB;
SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA
= STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA;
SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA; RUN
; PROC SIMNLIN
DATA=ENDOG DYNAMIC SIMULATE OUT=N_ENDO; ENDOGENOUS
HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA
CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS
HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID
MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA
RHCOW RHMMKIR RXSI RHDSI RHESI RCSID RHMSID RRHMSIDRCSID RHMMMS RCMMS RHMSP RCSP RHERCD RHDRUSAHCOW RHEKUSA RHEDKUSA RHDKRUSA
RHDMKA RHDKA RHDKB RRHDKBRHCOW LCSI LXSI LLASMIN LLASMIS LLASMIR LXSM LMSC LMSEU LMSID LMSP LCSC LCSEU LCSID LCSP LHSW LHESI LHESM
LHDSI LHMSC LHMSEU LHMSID LHMSP LXKA LXKB LXKUSA LMKC LMKID LMKEU LMKIR LCKA LCKB LCKUSA LCKC LCKID LCKEU LCKIR LHKW LHEKA LHEKB
LHEKUSA LHMKC LHMKID LHMKEU LHMKIR LXRCD LXRUSA LMRUSA LMREU LMRC LCRCD LCRUSA LCREU LCRC LHRW LHERCD LHERUSA LHMRUSA LHDRUSA
LHDKUSA LHMREU LHMRC LXMA LMMEU LMMMS LMMIR LCMA LCMEU LCMMS LCMIR LHMW LHEMA LHMMEU LHMMMS LHMMIR LHDKB LHDKA LHDMA LHDRCD;
EXOGENOUS TREN HCOW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI
ERI PESI STOKSI LPOPI LASIN LASIS LASIR ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA
IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD STOKRCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS
ERMS PRODMMS POPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC PPRODRC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID IPID
POPID TMMIR TMKIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR IPIR POPIR;
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
PARM B0
241.8316 B1 -
0.02120 B2
0.023313 B3
0.474437
C0 182.7619
C1 - 0.03417
C2 0.051413
C3 0.487471
D0
143.6909
D1 -
0.01026
D2
0.062441
D3
0.539133
E0 380.0096
E1 - 0.15911
E2 0.243896
I0 0.089329
I1 - 1.12078
I2 0.858698
J0 243.9014
J1 0.116390
J2 - 0.21126
J3 - 0.43739
J4 0.804695
K0 72.46956
K1 0.013851
K2 - 0.24278
K3 0.778981
L0 0.000224
L1 - 0.00153
L2 - 0.00406
L3 0.992763
M0
0.001040
M1 -
0.00015
M2
0.88328
N0 0.000087
N1 0.000197
N2 - 0.00817
N3 - 0.00149
N4 0.584751
O0 4.662357
O1 0.157079
O2 - 464.243
O3 0.300709
P0
0.745129
P1 -
0.00176
P2 -
11.0698
P3
0.167411
Q0 1.405829
Q1 - 453.433
Q2 - 57.9413
Q3 0.008254
Q4 0.896068
R0 - 3450.09
R1 - 0.05438
R2 961.7034
R3 23.42292
R4 0.695843
S0
15.75933
S1
0.855158
S2 -
14.0676
S3 -
0.00528
S4
0.244956
T0 0.069857
T1 - 6.67733
T2 0.812459
T3 0.388918
T4 0.465425
U0 351.7565
U1 0.110846
U2 - 6.46154
U3 - 3.66984
U4 0.454223
V0
0.507638
V1 -
0.14320
V2
0.169727
W0 - 723.471
W1 0.229701
W2 - 0.41627
W3 100.4155
W4 0.440950
W5 0.116749
X0 -
903.105
X1 -
0.19697
X2 -
2.17634
X3
11.50532
X4
0.683214
Y0 39.59796
Y1 0.870944
Y2 - 4.28929
Y3 - 0.01236
Y4 0.066310
Z0 127.8220
Z1 0.104366
Z2 - 2.90880
Z3 0.521371
AA0 -
2039.83
AA1 -
41.4378
AA2
131.3494
AA3
66.68074
AB0 0.163538
AB1 - 0.41667
AB2 10.76324
AB3 0.909194
AC0 107.3276
AC1 0.550047
AC2 0.183935
AD0
0.162831
AD1 -
0.32333
AD2
0.399137
AD3
0.621045
AE0 - 225.772
AE1 5.172079
AE2 6.433590
AF0 - 27.2357
AF1 0.065140
AF2 - 0.22921
AF3 - 2.04815
AF4 0.794059
AF5
0.011916
AG0 343.4989
AG1 0.457125
AG2 2.036429
AH0 0.855283
AH1 8.448790
AH2 - 0.42908
AI0
0.680184
AI1
7.412285
CG0 0.519024
CG1 - 0.12344
CG2 0.206917
CH0 7.249052
CH1 1.065817
CH2 0.013472
CH3 - 0.02424
CH4 0.066539
AJ0
441.8021
AJ1
65.10564
AJ2 -
0.27971
AJ3
0.077960
AK0 0.066989
AK1 - 0.05650
AK2 0.431599
AL0 56.36600
AL1 - 0.05946
AL2 - 0.52080
AL3 0.644072
AL4 0.230138
AM0 -
70.3891
AM1
0.709185
AM2
25.79298
AN0 - 3516.09
AN1 - 0.79295
AN2 - 6.57461
AN3 0.299084
AN4 16.70166
AO0 0.636471
AO1 0.079828
AO2 - 0.15465
AO3 0.542992
CE0
0.990814
CE1 -
0.00435
CE2
0.015832
CE3
0.063175
AP0 5.123725
AP1 - 0.32645
AP2 0.583089
AP3 0.414745
AQ0 - 169.133
AQ1 - 0.00666
AQ2 4.062721
AQ3 1.131358
AQ4 0.797579
AR0
0.689993
AR1
0.334226
AS0 - 799.987
AS1 - 0.30548
AS2 12.74509
AS3 0.433641
AT0 2310.386
AT1 - 0.13369
AT2 - 9.75469
AT3 - 39.9513
AT4 784.9596
AT5
0.463356
AU0 0.359474
AU1 7.690904
AU2 0.345766
AV0 353.3033
AV1 - 2.37764
AV2 - 27.9014
AV3 82.52237
AW0
216.4328
AW1 -
0.00951
AW2 -
14.3876
AW3
0.112771
AW4
0.369714
AX0 175.0135
AX1 0.563480
AX2 4.251363
AY0 133.9674
AY1 0.746373
AY2 1.444464
AZ0
0.798185
AZ1
7.037101
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
BA0
336.7428
BA1
0.486808
BA2
2.017002
BB0 -
0.77048
BB1
0.615640
BB2
0.503863
BB3
1400.688
BB4
0.026403
BB5 0.374336
BC0 - 825.988
BC1 - 732.909
BC2 0.478277
BC3 0.118464
BD0 -
10473.3
BD1 -
1.76015
BD2
1.236793
BD3
590.7302
BD4
0.040975
BD5 24.40434
BD6 0.604560
BE0 - 5268.47
BE1 - 0.59224
BE2 0.768582
BE3 15.21893
BE4 10.89263
BE5 0.908926
BF0 - 0.30298
BF1 - 91.3233
BF2 0.702171
BG0 - 0.23946
BG1 0.399460
BG2 0.871883
BH0
154.2939
BH1 -
0.72911
BH2
0.986633
BI0 30.12616
BI1 - 0.18123
BI2 - 0.30879
BI3 0.761962
BI4 0.650198
BJ0 - 13375.0
BJ1 - 2.99543
BJ2 0.175097
BJ3 1.794438
BJ4 145.2790
BJ5
1.223164
BJ6
3.447816
BK0 - 1707.87
BK1 - 0.16965
BK2 0.014549
BK3 1.844396
BK4 0.796551
BL0 0.854980
BL1 2.071625
BM0
264.6960
BM1
0.494498
BM2
0.215192
BN0 127.0903
BN1 0.605879
BN2 3.956275
BO0 - 6128.81
BO1 - 0.00352
BO2 0.257495
BO3 0.114741
BO4 6.436799
BO5
0.362579
BP0 - 0.29663
BP1 0.346245
BP2 0.593307
BQ0 41.04146
BQ1 - 0.02139
BQ2 - 0.44848
BQ3 0.457126
BQ4 0.288498
BR0
274.0120
BR1 -
0.12175
BR2
1.029408
BS0 10490.41
BS1 - 91.5287
BS2 - 180.130
BS3 - 70.7774
BT0 42.28541
BT1 0.665738
BT2 23.18987
BT3 0.218731
BU0
0.748755
BU1
5.162068
BV0 - 10086.8
BV1 - 1.17667
BV2 0.756096
BV3 11.43984
BW0 - 4107.24
BW1 - 0.68285
BW2 0.414404
BW3 57.07257
BW4 1.570795
BW5
0.716798
BX0 64.95581
BX1 - 0.07863
BX2 - 0.96035
BX3 0.986032
BY0 0.870527
BY1 2.671920
BZ0
0.295125
BZ1
5.422256
BZ2
0.465672
CA0 - 0.22872
CA1 0.132785
CA2 4.461250
CA3 0.623417
CB0 - 839.868
CB1 - 12.2172
CB2 13.86352
CB3 2.248393
CB4 0.497034
CC0 -
0.06288
CC1 -
1.07570
CC2
1.106310
CC3
0.086497
CD0 - 0.00270
CD1 - 0.92889
CD2 1.144923
; HSW
= B0+B1XSW+B2MSW+B3LHSW; HKW = C0+C1XKW+C2MKW+C3LHKW;
HRW = D0+D1XRW+D2MRW+D3LHRW;
HMW = E0+E1XMW+E2MMW; LASMIN = I0LHESI+I1RHCPI+I2L3LASIN;
LASMIS = J0+J1LHESI+J2RHCPI+J3USPI+J4L3LASIS; LASMIR = K0+K1LHDSI+K2USPI+K3LLASIR;
YIESIN = L0HESI+L1RHCPI+L2DLASMIN+L3LYIESIN; YIESIS = M0HESI+M1DLASMIS+M2LYIESIS;
YIESIR = N0HDSI+N1LHDSI+N2RHCPI+N3DLASMIR+N4LYIESIR; HDSI = O0HESI+O1ERI+O2RTSDSI+O3LHDSI;
HESI = P0HSW+P1ERI+P2RXSI+P3LHESI; XSI = Q0HESI+Q1RHDSI+Q2PESI+Q3ERI+Q4SXSI;
CSI = R0+R1HDSI+R2RHCOW+R3POPI+R4LCSI; HESM = S0+S1HSW+S2ERM+S3XSM+S4LHESM;
XSM = T0HESM+T1PESM+T2STOKSM+T3PRODSM+T4LXSM; HEKB = U0+U1HKW+U2ERB+U3PEKB+U4LHEKB;
HDKB = V0HEKB+V1SDKB+V2CKB;
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
XKB = W0+W1HEKB+W2HDKB+W3ERB+W4PRODKB+W5LXKB;
CKB = X0+X1HDKB+X2RRHDKBRHCOW+X3POPB+X4LCKB;
HEKA = Y0+Y1HKW+Y2ERA+Y3XKA+Y4LHEKA; HDKA = Z0+Z1HEKA+Z2RSDCKA+Z3LHDKA;
CKA = AA0+AA1RHDKA+AA2RHCOW+AA3POPA; XKA = AB0HEKA+AB1HDKA+AB2ERA+AB3PRODKA;
HEMA = AC0+AC1HMW+AC2LHEMA; HDMA = AD0HEMA+AD1SDMA+AD2CMA+AD3LHDMA;
CMA = AE0RHDMKA+AE1HCOW+AE2POPA; XMA = AF0+AF1HEMA+AF2HDMA+AF3PEMA+AF4PRODMA+AF5LXMA;
HEKUSA = AG0+AG1HKW+AG2SEKUSA; HERUSA = AH0HRW+AH1SERUSA+AH2XRUSA;
HMRUSA = AI0HRW+AI1TMRUSA; HDKUSA = CG0HEKUSA+CG1SDKUSA+CG2CKUSA;
HDRUSA = CH0+CH1HERUSA+CH2HMRUSA+CH3SDRUSA+CH4CRUSA; XKUSA = AJ0+AJ1RHEKUSA+AJ2HDKUSA+AJ3PRODKUSA;
XRUSA = AK0HERUSA+AK1HDRUSA+AK2PRODRUSA; MRUSA = AL0+AL1HMRUSA+AL2STOKRUSA+AL3CRUSA+AL4LMRUSA;
CKUSA = AM0RHDKUSAHCOW+AM1HDRUSA+AM2POPUSA; CRUSA = AN0+AN1HDRUSA+AN2RHDRUSAHCOW+AN3HDKUSA+AN4POPUSA;
HERCD = AO0HRW+AO1SERCD+AO2XRCD+AO3LHERCD; HDRCD = CE0HERCD+CE1PRODRCD+CE2CRCD+CE3LHDRCD;
XRCD = AP0RHERCD+AP1HDRCD+AP2PRODRCD+AP3LXRCD; CRCD = AQ0+AQ1HDRCD+AQ2HCOW+AQ3POPCD+AQ4LCRCD;
HMSP = AR0HSW+AR1LHMSP; CSP
= AS0+AS1HMSP+AS2POPP+AS3LCSP; MSP
= AT0+AT1HMSP+AT2ERP+AT3TMSP+AT4RCSP+AT5LMSP; HMMMS = AU0HMW+AU1TMMMS+AU2LHMMMS;
MMMS = AV0+AV1RHMMMS+AV2ERMS+AV3RCMMS; CMMS = AW0+AW1HMMMS+AW2ERMS+AW3POPMS+AW4LCMMS;
HMKEU = AX0+AX1HKW+AX2TMKEU; HMSEU = AY0+AY1HSW+AY2TMSEU;
HMREU = AZ0HRW+AZ1TMREU; HMMEU = BA0+BA1HMW+BA2TMMEU;
CKEU = BB0HMKEU+BB1HMREU+BB2HMMEU+BB3RHCOW+BB4IPEU
+BB5LCKEU; CMEU = BC0+BC1RHMMREU+BC2HMKEU+BC3IPEU;
CSEU = BD0+BD1HMSEU+BD2HMMEU+BD3RHCOW+BD4IPEU+BD5POPEU +BD6LCSEU;
CREU = BE0+BE1HMREU+BE2HMSEU+BE3HCOW+BE4POPEU+BE5LCREU; MKEU = BF0HMKEU+BF1EREU+BF2CKEU;
MSEU = BG0HMSEU+BG1CSEU+BG2LMSEU; MREU = BH0+BH1HMREU+BH2CREU;
MMEU = BI0+BI1HMMEU+BI2PRODMEU+BI3CMEU+BI4LMMEU; HMSC = BL0HSW+BL1TMSC;
HMKC = BM0+BM1HKW+BM2TMKC; HMRC = BN0+BN1HRW+BN2TMRC;
CSC = BJ0+BJ1HMSC+BJ2HMKC+BJ3HMRC+BJ4HCOW+BJ5IPC
+BJ6POPC; CKC = BK0+BK1HMKC+BK2IPC+BK3POPC+BK4LCKC;
CRC = BO0+BO1HMRC+BO2HMKC+BO3IPC+BO4POPC+BO5LCRC; MKC = BP0HMKC+BP1CKC+BP2LMKC;
MRC = BQ0+BQ1HMRC+BQ2PRODRC+BQ3CRC+BQ4LMRC; MSC = BR0+BR1HMSC+BR2CSC;
HMSID = BT0+BT1HSW+BT2RCSID+BT3LHMSID; HMKID = BU0HKW+BU1TMKID;
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
CSID = BV0+BV1HMSID+BV2IPID+BV3POPID; CKID = BW0+BW1HMKID+BW2HMSID+BW3HCOW+BW4POPID+BW5LCKID;
MSID = BS0+BS1RRHMSIDRCSID+BS2TMSID+BS3ERID; MKID = BX0+BX1HMKID+BX2PRODKID+BX3CKID;
HMKIR = BY0HKW+BY1TMKIR; HMMIR = BZ0HMW+BZ1TMMIR+BZ2LHMMIR;
CKIR = CA0HMKIR+CA1HMMIR+CA2POPIR+CA3LCKIR; CMIR = CB0+CB1RHMMKIR+CB2HCOW+CB3POPIR+CB4LCMIR;
MKIR = CC0HMKIR+CC1PRODKIR+CC2CKIR+CC3LMKIR; MMIR = CD0HMMIR+CD1PRODMIR+CD2CMIR;
PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW;
XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW;
XMW = XMA+XMRW; MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW;
MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW;
MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI;
SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB;
SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA;
SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA;
RHCOW = HCOW-LHCOWLHCOW;
RHESI = HESI-LHESILHESI;
RHDSI = HDSI-LHDSILHDSI;
RHMMKIR = HMMIRHMKIR;
RHMSID = HMSID-LHMSIDLHMSID;
RCSID = CSID-LCSIDLCSID;
RRHMSIDRCSID = RHMSIDRCSID; RHMMMS
= HMMMS-LHMMMSLHMMMS; RHMSP
= HMSP-LHMSPLHMSP; RCSP
= CSP-LCSPLCSP; RHERCD
= HERCD-LHERCDLHERCD; RHDRUSAHCOW
= HDRUSAHCOW; RHDKUSAHCOW = HDKUSAHCOW;
RHEKUSA = HEKUSA-LHEKUSALHEKUSA;
RHEDKUSA = HEKUSAHDKUSA;
RHDMKA = HDMAHDKA;
RHDKA = HDKA-LHDKALHDKA;
RHDKB = HDKB-LHDKBLHDKB;
RRHDKBRHCOW = RHDKBRHCOW;
RCMMS = CMMS-LCMMSLCMMS;
RHDKRUSA = HDKUSAHDRUSA;
RSDSI = SDSI-LSDSILSDSI;
RCSI = CSI-LCSILCSI;
RXSI = XSI-LXSILXSI;
RRSDSIRCSI = RSDSIRCSI;
RSDSICSI = SDSICSI 100
; RCSDSI
= CSISDSI
100
; DSDSICSI = SDSI-CSI;
DLASMIN = LASMIN-LLASMIN;
DLASMIS = LASMIS-LLASMIS; DLASMIR
= LASMIR-LLASMIR; RLASMSIN = DLASMINLASIN
100 ;
RLASMSIS = DLASMISL3LASIS
100
; RLASMSIR = DLASMIRLASIR
100
; RTSDSI
= PRODSI+STOKSIXSI+CSI;
Lampiran 10. Lanjutan
LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS;
LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR;
LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI = LAGXSI; LHCOW
= LAGHCOW LCSI
= LAGCSI; LXSI=LAGXSI;
LXSM = LAGXSM;
LMSC = LAGMSC;
LMSEU = LAGMSEU; LMSID
= LAGMSID LMSP
= LAGMSP; LCSC
= LAGCSC; LCSEU
= LAGCSEU; LCSID
= LAGCSID; LCSP
= LAGCSP; LHSW
= LAGHSW; LHESI
= LAGHESI; LHESM
= LAGHESM; LHDSI
= LAGHDSI; LHMSC
= LAGHMSC; LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU;
LHMSID = LAGHMSID;
LHMSP = LAGHMSP;
LXKA = LAGXKA; LXKB
= LAGXKB; LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA;
LMKC = LAGMKC; LMKID
= LAGMKID; LMKEU
= LAGMKEU; LMKIR = LAGMKIR;
LCKA = LAGCKA;
LCKB = LAGCKB;
LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA; LCKC
= LAGCKC; LCKID = LAGCKID;
LCKEU = LAGCKEU; LCKIR
= LAGCKIR; LHKW
= LAGHKW; LHEKA = LAGHEKA;
LHEKB = LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA;
LHMKC = LAGHMKC;
LHMKID = LAGHMKID; LHMKEU
= LAGHMKEU; LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR;
LXRCD = LAGXRCD; LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA;
LMREU = LAGMREU; LMRC = LAGMRC;
LCRCD = LAGCRCD; LCRUSA
= LAGCRUSA; LCREU = LAGCREU;
LCRC = LAGCRC; LHRW
= LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD; LHERUSA
= LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA; LHDRUSA
= LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU; LHMRC
= LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU; LMMMS
= LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA; LCMEU
= LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR; LHMW
= LAGHMW; LHEMA = LAGHEMA;
LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU; LHMMMS
= LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR; LHDKB = LAGHDKB;
LHDKA = LAGHDKA;
LHDMA = LAGHDMA; LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD;
RANGE TAHUN
2009
TO
2025
; RUN
; PROC PRINT
DATA =N_ENDO;
id Tahun;
VAR HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS
YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA
HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS
HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID
HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW
SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA ;
RUN ;
Lampiran 11. Hasil Peramalan Variabel Eksogen dan Peramalan Tahap Awal Variabel Endogen dalam Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati
dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-2025
Variabel 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017 2018
Eksogen POPI
240.33 243.20
246.05 248.89
251.72 254.54
257.36 Eksogen
HCPI 3219.08
3242.15 3308.36
3381.03 3440.05
3489.41 3539.10
Eksogen USPI
734.67 742.63
749.00 754.51
759.54 764.30
768.93 Eksogen
LASIN 780.62
727.85 791.18
814.46 812.93
832.57 831.36
Eksogen LASIS
3852.85 3964.60
4081.58 4202.61
4326.76 4453.32
4581.73 Eksogen
LASIR 3044.57
3102.60 3167.15
3237.24 3312.05
3390.88 3473.15
Eksogen PRODSI
20901.42 21404.00
21899.41 22507.18
23159.64 23747.96
24505.10 Eksogen
STOKSI 1506.14
1560.75 1615.36
1669.97 1724.58
1779.19 1833.80
Eksogen PESI
10.01 10.34
10.56 10.72
10.83 10.93
11.01 Eksogen
ERI 11048.28
11216.60 11337.96
11437.63 11527.29
11612.31 11695.19
Eksogen PRODSM
18589.14 19008.19
19461.24 19937.52
20429.67 20932.66
21443.05 Eksogen
STOKSM 1736.20
1781.74 1827.28
1872.82 1918.36
1963.90 2009.44
Eksogen ERM
3.27 3.28
3.27 3.26
3.24 3.22
3.20 Eksogen
POPA 41.59
42.03 42.48
42.92 43.35
43.79 44.22
Eksogen PRODKA
6837.99 7060.68
7285.19 7511.20
7738.45 7966.71
8195.81 Eksogen
PRODMA 1849.06
1898.84 1940.88
1977.92 2011.72
2043.43 2073.79
Eksogen STOKKA
551.82 582.00
608.68 632.78
654.98 675.79
695.58 Eksogen
STOKMA 97.67
99.57 100.92
102.06 103.11
104.14 105.15
Eksogen ERA
2.32 2.31
2.31 2.30
2.30 2.29
2.29 Eksogen
POPB 203.34
206.02 208.66
211.26 213.85
216.42 218.98
Eksogen PRODKB
6507.88 6646.14
6787.84 6931.72
7076.98 7223.13
7369.83 Eksogen
STOKKB 325.48
331.75 338.02
344.29 350.56
356.83 363.10
Eksogen PEKB
18.75 19.48
18.10 18.05
16.97 17.32
16.83 Eksogen
ERB 2.75
2.89 3.00
3.09 3.16
3.22 3.28
Eksogen POPUSA
315.32 318.10
320.90 323.74
326.61 329.49
332.37 Eksogen
IPUSA 45658.45
46236.58 46800.64
47354.95 47902.52
48445.41 48985.07
Eksogen PRODKUSA
10003.53 10170.72
10337.91 10505.10
10672.29 10839.48
11006.67
Variabel 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
Eksogen POPI
260.17 262.98
265.78 268.58
271.38 274.18
276.98 Eksogen
HCPI 3592.78
3648.41 3703.48
3757.49 3811.17
3865.10 3919.28
Eksogen USPI
773.47 777.97
782.45 786.92
791.37 795.83
800.28 Eksogen
LASIN 825.64
875.15 868.21
880.74 905.33
919.64 944.08
Eksogen LASIS
4711.58 4842.53
4974.33 5106.79
5239.76 5373.12
5506.78 Eksogen
LASIR 3558.33
3646.00 3735.78
3827.37 3920.50
4014.93 4110.48
Eksogen PRODSI
25246.63 25996.26
26789.25 27582.15
28386.35 29249.93
30069.52 Eksogen
STOKSI 1888.41
1943.03 1997.64
2052.25 2106.86
2161.47 2216.08
Eksogen PESI
11.08 11.15
11.22 11.29
11.35 11.41
11.48 Eksogen
ERI 11777.09
11858.53 11939.76
12020.89 12101.97
12183.04 12264.09
Eksogen PRODSM
21958.51 22477.42
22998.69 23521.57
24045.56 24570.30
25095.56 Eksogen
STOKSM 2054.98
2100.52 2146.06
2191.60 2237.14
2282.68 2328.22
Eksogen ERM
3.17 3.14
3.12 3.09
3.06 3.03
3.00 Eksogen
POPA 44.65
45.08 45.51
45.93 46.36
46.79 47.21
Eksogen PRODKA
8425.58 8655.91
8886.71 9117.88
9349.35 9581.09
9813.03 Eksogen
PRODMA 2103.28
2132.20 2160.76
2189.08 2217.25
2245.32 2273.32
Eksogen STOKKA
714.61 733.08
751.15 768.91
786.46 803.84
821.11 Eksogen
STOKMA 106.15
107.16 108.16
109.17 110.17
111.17 112.18
Eksogen ERA
2.29 2.28
2.28 2.27
2.27 2.26
2.26 Eksogen
POPB 221.53
224.07 226.60
229.13 231.66
234.18 236.70
Eksogen PRODKB
7516.88 7664.16
7811.59 7959.10
8106.67 8254.28
8401.92 Eksogen
STOKKB 369.37
375.64 381.91
388.18 394.45
400.72 406.99
Eksogen PEKB
16.61 16.68
16.17 16.70
16.58 16.97
16.65 Eksogen
ERB 3.33
3.37 3.42
3.46 3.50
3.53 3.57
Eksogen POPUSA
335.27 338.17
341.06 343.94
346.82 349.68
352.53 Eksogen
IPUSA 49522.48
50058.34 50593.12
51127.16 51660.68
52193.85 52726.76
Eksogen PRODKUSA
11173.86 11341.05
11508.24 11675.43
11842.62 12009.81
12177.00
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan
Variabel 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017 2018
Eksogen PRODRUSA
487.15 501.68
517.70 534.51
551.73 569.17
586.73 Eksogen
STOKKUSA 1230.34
1215.29 1143.98
1125.36 1177.05
1242.44 1272.84
Eksogen STOKRUSA
109.48 88.33
86.49 91.30
95.07 100.57
114.94 Eksogen
SEKUSA 26.85
28.22 30.55
36.25 37.96
37.84 36.63
Eksogen SERUSA
24.03 23.31
23.82 24.10
24.57 24.47
24.47 Eksogen
TMRUSA 22.56
22.04 20.62
19.12 17.89
17.18 16.86
Eksogen PRODRCD
1787.88 1745.24
1732.67 1807.44
1857.34 1920.89
1982.60 Eksogen
SERCD 4.81
3.64 2.65
1.76 0.93
0.13 -0.64
Eksogen POPC
1391.23 1406.10
1420.66 1434.97
1449.04 1462.92
1476.63 Eksogen
IPC 5134.33
5092.84 5079.51
5088.99 5116.96
5159.91 5215.00
Eksogen PRODRC
5125.51 5272.76
5414.99 5554.79
5693.41 5831.46
5969.24 Eksogen
TMSC 18.03
17.30 16.53
15.75 14.96
14.16 13.36
Eksogen TMKC
68.10 71.29
73.19 74.26
74.80 75.00
74.98 Eksogen
TMRC 12.72
12.14 11.45
10.70 9.93
9.14 8.34
Eksogen ERC
7.09 7.00
6.89 6.79
6.68 6.57
6.46 Eksogen
POPID 1257.89
1275.69 1293.47
1311.23 1328.98
1346.72 1364.45
Eksogen PRODKID
1456.67 1426.07
1417.21 1605.90
1612.85 1692.62
1753.12 Eksogen
TMSID 12.92
12.08 11.24
10.40 9.56
8.72 7.88
Eksogen TMKID
28.96 29.72
30.02 30.01
29.80 29.46
29.02 Eksogen
ERID 42.03
42.76 43.29
43.66 43.89
44.03 44.08
Eksogen POPP
172.08 174.89
177.70 180.52
183.35 186.18
189.01 Eksogen
IPP 1427.04
1361.46 1296.51
1234.80 1180.71
1136.94 1084.49
Eksogen TMSP
13.44 12.64
11.84 11.03
10.22 9.41
8.60 Eksogen
ERP 64.36
66.98 67.38
66.40 64.59
62.30 59.92
Eksogen PRODMEU
2480.82 2549.11
2609.35 2663.01
2711.3 2755.19
2795.5 Eksogen
POPEU 437.75
438.32 439.10
440.13 441.39
442.81 444.31
Eksogen IPEU
29699.50 30129.14
30579.33 30939.03
31215.75 31462.50
31719.65
Variabel 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
Eksogen PRODRUSA
604.35 622.00
639.67 657.34
675.02 692.71
710.39 Eksogen
STOKKUSA 1271.40
1270.72 1290.53
1323.47 1352.29
1370.15 1383.29
Eksogen STOKRUSA
107.33 108.21
112.00 115.33
119.42 127.41
125.75 Eksogen
SEKUSA 34.90
33.81 33.16
32.42 30.45
29.15 28.90
Eksogen SERUSA
24.39 24.57
24.70 24.88
24.92 25.00
25.05 Eksogen
TMRUSA 16.72
16.54 16.19
15.66 15.01
14.33 13.70
Eksogen PRODRCD
2071.39 2158.38
2208.08 2253.31
2291.06 2326.58
2349.88 Eksogen
SERCD -1.39
-2.14 -2.89
-3.63 -4.37
-5.11 -5.84
Eksogen POPC
1490.18 1503.61
1516.93 1530.15
1543.29 1556.35
1569.35 Eksogen
IPC 5279.93
5352.84 5432.21
5516.81 5605.66
5697.95 5793.02
Eksogen PRODRC
6106.88 6244.46
6382.01 6519.54
6657.07 6794.59
6932.11 Eksogen
TMSC 12.56
11.75 10.94
10.14 9.33
8.52 7.71
Eksogen TMKC
74.83 74.58
74.28 73.94
73.58 73.20
72.81 Eksogen
TMRC 7.54
6.74 5.94
5.14 4.33
3.53 2.73
Eksogen ERC
6.35 6.23
6.12 6.01
5.90 5.79
5.68 Eksogen
POPID 1382.17
1399.89 1417.61
1435.32 1453.03
1470.74 1488.44
Eksogen PRODKID
1838.03 1912.88
1896.30 1963.84
1997.66 2040.41
2071.86 Eksogen
TMSID 7.04
6.20 5.36
4.52 3.69
2.85 2.01
Eksogen TMKID
28.53 27.99
27.43 26.85
26.26 25.66
25.06 Eksogen
ERID 44.06
43.99 43.88
43.74 43.58
43.39 43.19
Eksogen POPP
191.85 194.68
197.52 200.37
203.21 206.05
208.90 Eksogen
IPP 1024.08
955.65 878.04
789.47 693.32
592.42 489.35
Eksogen TMSP
7.79 6.98
6.17 5.36
4.54 3.73
2.92 Eksogen
ERP 58.19
57.32 57.28
57.91 59.02
60.21 61.18
Eksogen PRODMEU
2832.87 2867.85
2900.86 2932.28
2962.38 2991.42
3019.58 Eksogen
POPEU 445.80
447.21 448.51
449.66 450.71
451.67 452.59
Eksogen IPEU
31997.98 32289.32
32582.40 32871.43
33156.40 33439.73
33723.45
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan
Variabel 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017 2018
Eksogen TMSEU
16.13 15.80
15.46 15.12
14.79 14.45
14.12 Eksogen
TMKEU 26.08
26.13 26.18
26.23 26.27
26.32 26.37
Eksogen TMREU
21.70 21.56
21.42 21.28
21.14 21.00
20.86 Eksogen
TMMEU 19.52
19.31 19.10
18.89 18.69
18.48 18.27
Eksogen POPIR
77.81 78.99
80.16 81.31
82.46 83.60
84.74 Eksogen
PRODKIR 213.07
215.90 219.28
223.15 227.44
232.08 237.03
Eksogen PRODMIR
22.33 22.78
23.24 23.70
24.16 24.62
25.08 Eksogen
TMKIR 24.91
25.31 25.35
25.14 24.76
24.26 23.69
Eksogen TMMIR
13.35 12.41
11.41 10.38
9.34 8.29
7.24 Eksogen
ERIR 8346.70
8617.51 8845.48
9048.90 9238.22
9419.47 9596.09
Eksogen POPMS
78.77 79.80
80.87 81.96
83.07 84.20
85.34 Eksogen
PRODMMS 11.10
11.64 12.10
12.50 12.85
13.17 13.47
Eksogen TMMMS
10.17 9.98
8.81 7.63
6.96 6.20
5.16 Eksogen
ERMS 5.64
5.80 5.73
5.53 5.29
5.11 5.02
Eksogen XSRW
3655.95 3712.22
3781.20 3858.85
3942.45 4030.10
4120.54 Eksogen
MSRW 12349.42
12266.81 12292.74
12399.16 12565.28
12775.67 13018.90
Eksogen XKRW
2395.32 2505.98
2458.81 2834.30
2607.31 2675.88
2683.12 Eksogen
MKRW 5377.02
6192.30 5737.70
5914.81 6003.21
6550.07 6437.09
Eksogen XRRW
2701.92 2745.41
2794.67 2847.29
2901.86 2957.58
3013.96 Eksogen
MRRW 417.11
366.78 329.94
281.99 250.23
209.09 190.43
Eksogen XMRW
3463.95 3555.69
3647.43 3739.17
3830.91 3922.65
4014.39 Eksogen
MMRW 2120.50
2161.12 2201.74
2242.37 2282.99
2323.61 2364.23
Eksogen HCOW
56.70 56.74
56.75 56.75
56.75 56.74
56.74
Variabel 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
Eksogen TMSEU
13.78 13.44
13.11 12.77
12.44 12.10
11.76 Eksogen
TMKEU 26.42
26.47 26.52
26.56 26.61
26.66 26.71
Eksogen TMREU
20.73 20.59
20.45 20.31
20.17 20.03
19.89 Eksogen
TMMEU 18.06
17.85 17.64
17.43 17.23
17.02 16.81
Eksogen POPIR
85.87 87.00
88.12 89.24
90.37 91.49
92.60 Eksogen
PRODKIR 242.24
247.68 253.31
259.11 265.05
271.12 277.29
Eksogen PRODMIR
25.53 25.99
26.45 26.91
27.37 27.83
28.28 Eksogen
TMKIR 23.06
22.40 21.71
21.01 20.30
19.58 18.85
Eksogen TMMIR
6.19 5.14
4.08 3.03
1.98 0.92
-0.13 Eksogen
ERIR 9770.05
9942.49 10114.05
10285.11 10455.89
10626.50 10797.01
Eksogen POPMS
86.49 87.65
88.81 89.98
91.15 92.33
93.51 Eksogen
PRODMMS 13.75
14.02 14.28
14.53 14.78
15.02 15.26
Eksogen TMMMS
4.21 3.39
2.49 1.53
0.62 -0.27
-1.18 Eksogen
ERMS 5.00
5.03 5.07
5.10 5.10
5.07 5.03
Eksogen XSRW
4212.87 4306.51
4401.03 4496.16
4591.71 4687.54
4783.56 Eksogen
MSRW 13286.47
13572.11 13871.14
14180.10 14496.42
14818.22 15144.06
Eksogen XKRW
2854.61 2791.96
2844.18 2872.56
2964.78 2965.99
3011.85 Eksogen
MKRW 6636.41
6875.52 6994.08
6841.60 7230.15
7349.56 7506.77
Eksogen XRRW
3070.72 3127.72
3184.84 3242.04
3299.29 3356.56
3413.84 Eksogen
MRRW 181.40
181.60 182.55
186.77 186.21
179.82 167.07
Eksogen XMRW
4106.12 4197.86
4289.60 4381.34
4473.08 4564.82
4656.56 Eksogen
MMRW 2404.85
2445.48 2486.10
2526.72 2567.34
2607.96 2648.59
Eksogen HCOW
56.73 56.72
56.72 56.71
56.70 56.70
56.69
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan
Variabel 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017 2018
Endogen LASMIN
565.20 606.94
611.80 655.34
707.83 662.84
717.46 Endogen
LASMIS 2849.09
2911.35 2984.22
3065.52 3153.03
3245.12 3340.79
Endogen LASMIR
2294.99 2331.43
2374.39 2422.99
2476.32 2533.60
2594.28 Endogen
YIESIN 4.2387
4.1384 4.1851
4.0737 3.9273
4.1788 4.0247
Endogen YIESIS
4.0150 4.0055
3.9893 3.9709
3.9535 3.9401
3.9304 Endogen
YIESIR 3.2267
3.2083 3.1649
3.1246 3.0979
3.0838 3.0791
Endogen PRODSI
21239.99 21653.23
21979.92 22413.51
22916.94 23369.11
24006.19 Endogen
SDSI 7377.66
7664.59 7928.28
8192.53 8456.20
8707.09 8973.31
Endogen SXSI
16964.17 17206.31
17362.80 17628.03
17965.35 18254.06
18729.90 Endogen
XSI 15368.47
15549.38 15667.00
15890.95 16185.33
16441.21 16866.68
Endogen CSI
5781.96 6007.67
6232.48 6455.46
6676.17 6894.24
7110.10 Endogen
HESI 462.77
450.47 444.40
441.83 441.54
444.11 446.64
Endogen HDSI
4880.57 4829.86
4805.08 4801.17
4812.70 4841.55
4875.03 Endogen
XSM 15932.41
16259.00 16625.57
17020.25 17434.52
17862.43 18299.66
Endogen HESM
467.51 449.20
438.44 432.41
429.40 429.84
430.69 Endogen
XKA 6169.23
6377.88 6582.28
6786.47 6993.83
7203.79 7411.89
Endogen XMA
1406.80 1449.43
1484.91 1515.74
1543.68 1569.84
1594.86 Endogen
SDKA 1220.59
1264.80 1311.59
1357.51 1399.60
1438.72 1479.50
Endogen SDMA
539.94 548.98
556.89 564.24
571.15 577.73
584.08 Endogen
CKA 734.80
763.51 792.81
822.10 851.01
879.67 908.53
Endogen CMA
399.57 406.67
412.39 416.74
420.85 425.26
429.11 Endogen
HEKA 549.94
579.39 575.84
561.57 563.56
582.17 583.51
Endogen HEMA
691.53 684.76
683.60 684.73
686.64 688.98
691.19 Endogen
HDKA 390.47
387.05 384.91
382.31 381.18
382.56 383.44
Endogen HDMA
278.89 269.52
263.23 258.88
255.89 254.04
252.74
Variabel 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
Endogen LASMIN
737.57 736.49
753.68 752.95
748.29 791.01
785.16 Endogen
LASMIS 3438.98
3539.19 3640.94
3743.81 3847.53
3951.89 4056.67
Endogen LASMIR
2657.73 2723.50
2791.24 2860.61
2931.37 3003.29
3076.16 Endogen
YIESIN 4.0123
4.0867 4.0871
4.1609 4.2506
4.1475 4.2427
Endogen YIESIS
3.9245 3.9223
3.9231 3.9261
3.9309 3.9361
3.9419 Endogen
YIESIR 3.0813
3.0895 3.1025
3.1186 3.1360
3.1535 3.1702
Endogen PRODSI
24644.83 25305.84
26023.99 26752.69
27497.60 28306.79
29074.36 Endogen
SDSI 9236.88
9500.74 9769.77
10039.65 10311.32
10590.74 10866.17
Endogen SXSI
19209.12 19712.17
20273.37 20845.76
21434.71 22087.95
22699.52 Endogen
XSI 17296.37
17748.12 18251.86
18765.29 19293.14
19877.52 20424.27
Endogen CSI
7324.13 7536.69
7748.26 7959.18
8169.74 8380.30
8590.92 Endogen
HESI 449.61
452.82 455.60
458.05 460.15
461.27 462.44
Endogen HDSI
4911.81 4950.64
4988.03 5023.40
5056.47 5084.29
5110.71 Endogen
XSM 18743.27
19191.24 19642.16
20095.06 20549.29
21004.36 21460.02
Endogen HESM
432.00 433.62
434.80 435.53
435.81 434.97
434.01 Endogen
XKA 7620.51
7830.75 8041.23
8250.27 8461.67
8672.99 8884.38
Endogen XMA
1619.15 1642.93
1666.36 1689.60
1712.70 1735.72
1758.67 Endogen
SDKA 1519.67
1558.24 1596.62
1636.52 1674.14
1711.94 1749.76
Endogen SDMA
590.28 596.43
602.56 608.65
614.71 620.77
626.82 Endogen
CKA 937.28
965.83 994.34
1022.97 1051.32
1079.68 1108.02
Endogen CMA
432.62 436.16
439.62 442.55
445.67 448.80
451.90 Endogen
HEKA 583.21
591.32 599.17
592.67 601.15
608.54 615.55
Endogen HEMA
693.64 696.92
701.02 705.33
710.26 715.59
721.13 Endogen
HDKA 383.89
384.99 386.41
386.49 387.43
388.72 390.14
Endogen HDMA
251.73 251.06
250.71 250.39
250.29 250.38
250.62
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan
Variabel 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017 2018
Endogen XKB
2695.00 2779.04
2862.57 2944.57
3026.90 3108.64
3190.16 Endogen
SDKB 4138.36
4198.86 4263.29
4331.44 4400.64
4471.32 4542.77
Endogen CKB
4103.21 4166.12
4217.96 4276.83
4317.91 4358.99
4395.47 Endogen
HEKB 614.95
616.29 620.86
621.11 625.40
628.31 631.44
Endogen HDKB
415.98 418.68
420.57 420.93
420.17 418.50
416.05 Endogen
XKUSA 1019.24
1032.11 1041.96
1054.72 1069.02
1083.64 1097.16
Endogen XRUSA
211.95 218.05
224.93 232.12
239.52 246.97
254.49 Endogen
SDKUSA 10214.62
10353.90 10439.93
10575.74 10780.32
10998.28 11182.35
Endogen SDRUSA
1297.02 1332.20
1377.98 1426.42
1471.12 1518.71
1569.14 Endogen
CKUSA 7861.45
7924.27 7995.59
8071.14 8156.45
8238.82 8324.50
Endogen CRUSA
1161.92 1212.66
1253.23 1295.53
1334.31 1377.44
1418.34 Endogen
MRUSA 912.35
960.24 998.72
1032.74 1063.85
1095.94 1121.96
Endogen HEKUSA
691.94 711.72
714.89 720.45
726.82 737.61
736.54 Endogen
HERUSA 772.60
767.73 774.46
778.86 785.57
787.77 792.16
Endogen HDKUSA
724.91 730.98
736.76 738.52
734.22 729.96
724.41 Endogen
HDRUSA 885.90
883.22 891.90
898.14 906.72
910.78 917.01
Endogen HMRUSA
692.53 691.68
685.48 678.38
674.00 673.69
677.37 Endogen
XRCD 1412.68
1394.85 1377.08
1412.10 1455.89
1512.63 1574.40
Endogen CRCD
465.04 467.43
469.65 471.74
473.74 475.71
477.66 Endogen
HERCD 600.44
605.00 614.17
617.45 616.78
612.23 605.80
Endogen HDRCD
634.71 639.35
648.82 652.37
651.75 646.95
640.05 Endogen
CSC 5708.86
5753.95 5809.45
5880.06 5968.64
6068.30 6183.20
Endogen CKC
3605.70 3727.21
3850.89 3977.00
4103.27 4228.04
4353.25 Endogen
CRC 5517.70
5663.31 5808.00
5951.99 6098.83
6249.41 6398.93
Endogen MSC
6090.09 6137.93
6195.79 6268.86
6360.19 6462.60
6580.75
Variabel 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
Endogen XKB
3271.27 3352.18
3433.56 3513.80
3594.55 3675.18
3756.48 Endogen
SDKB 4614.98
4687.62 4759.93
4833.49 4906.58
4979.82 5052.43
Endogen CKB
4431.96 4466.67
4491.43 4530.64
4559.06 4588.50
4607.45 Endogen
HEKB 633.61
635.42 639.10
637.98 639.11
639.16 641.29
Endogen HDKB
413.00 409.41
405.13 400.68
395.61 390.14
384.05 Endogen
XKUSA 1110.85
1124.40 1137.98
1152.07 1166.60
1180.35 1193.92
Endogen XRUSA
262.02 269.61
277.21 284.83
292.44 300.05
307.65 Endogen
SDKUSA 11334.40
11487.37 11660.78
11846.83 12028.32
12199.61 12366.37
Endogen SDRUSA
1607.31 1650.19
1693.03 1733.62
1775.24 1819.11
1858.36 Endogen
CKUSA 8407.90
8490.52 8575.49
8666.18 8752.49
8836.97 8919.41
Endogen CRUSA
1458.91 1497.12
1534.38 1569.46
1606.12 1643.22
1680.89 Endogen
MRUSA 1157.66
1189.60 1218.58
1245.78 1273.23
1299.04 1329.86
Endogen HEKUSA
734.17 737.58
741.44 737.60
739.62 741.92
746.20 Endogen
HERUSA 797.59
806.61 816.01
826.24 835.43
844.30 852.61
Endogen HDKUSA
721.67 721.65
719.83 713.64
710.15 707.68
706.37 Endogen
HDRUSA 924.66
935.87 947.42
959.76 971.04
981.96 992.42
Endogen HMRUSA
683.84 691.03
697.61 703.20
707.94 712.10
716.28 Endogen
XRCD 1654.94
1742.77 1811.01
1867.24 1912.86
1951.83 1979.92
Endogen CRCD
479.62 481.60
483.57 485.51
487.40 489.22
490.95 Endogen
HERCD 596.79
586.23 578.48
574.46 574.12
576.43 581.55
Endogen HDRCD
630.32 618.90
610.31 605.63
604.86 606.97
612.11 Endogen
CSC 6310.63
6449.27 6597.90
6752.79 6915.19
7083.73 7254.43
Endogen CKC
4478.73 4603.49
4727.64 4852.59
4976.55 5099.84
5222.54 Endogen
CRC 6548.16
6698.61 6849.40
6998.20 7148.55
7299.08 7449.56
Endogen MSC
6711.76 6854.28
7007.14 7166.49
7333.62 7507.19
7682.96
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan
Variabel 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017 2018
Endogen MKC
2577.84 2637.20
2715.62 2807.69
2905.07 3002.50
3103.20 Endogen
MRC 358.63
354.81 356.04
359.50 365.44
374.04 383.04
Endogen HMSC
498.35 486.63
480.63 477.51
476.28 477.76
478.80 Endogen
HMKC 597.13
616.20 614.91
608.59 611.82
623.82 625.32
Endogen HMRC
645.29 645.75
646.85 647.50
648.60 649.92
652.15 Endogen
CSID 5153.07
5319.83 5484.22
5648.03 5812.20
5975.88 6141.47
Endogen CKID
2823.10 2916.32
3010.02 3110.97
3208.45 3295.73
3386.84 Endogen
MSID 5272.08
5351.19 5437.02
5542.58 5663.42
5788.28 5934.13
Endogen MKID
1400.12 1518.93
1619.91 1539.02
1628.18 1636.35
1668.09 Endogen
HMSID 519.11
507.59 501.60
499.10 498.85
501.22 503.83
Endogen HMKID
630.65 662.40
661.38 651.43
655.07 671.39
671.44 Endogen
CSP 2110.40
2175.07 2241.48
2307.44 2372.36
2435.90 2498.67
Endogen MSP
2025.60 2040.52
2076.67 2134.96
2211.09 2299.69
2395.23 Endogen
HMSP 567.23
553.38 545.19
541.25 540.25
542.45 545.37
Endogen CSEU
3423.42 3517.13
3618.15 3723.08
3830.16 3937.34
4047.38 Endogen
CKEU 1842.00
1835.52 1848.07
1870.30 1886.24
1891.69 1903.35
Endogen CREU
2880.11 2953.22
3022.58 3093.26
3168.42 3250.98
3340.07 Endogen
CMEU 2260.60
2328.03 2384.71
2426.68 2464.43
2503.50 2539.38
Endogen MSEU
7457.08 7774.88
8093.35 8413.37
8735.19 9058.06
9383.07 Endogen
MKEU 1077.34
1074.41 1091.43
1116.66 1133.95
1140.65 1155.21
Endogen MREU
2435.17 2505.38
2570.85 2637.83
2708.69 2786.60
2870.04 Endogen
MMEU 2476.83
2486.98 2518.23
2553.82 2590.62
2630.52 2671.14
Endogen HMSEU
559.70 550.31
545.97 544.18
544.05 546.30
548.17 Endogen
HMKEU 648.00
669.16 667.43
660.17 663.92
677.75 679.67
Endogen HMREU
769.07 771.71
775.77 779.55
784.07 788.94
795.05
Variabel 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
Endogen MKC
3206.05 3308.47
3410.58 3515.20
3618.27 3720.55
3822.21 Endogen
MRC 392.04
401.62 411.52
420.60 430.15
439.94 449.77
Endogen HMSC
480.21 481.83
482.93 483.70
484.12 483.53
483.10 Endogen
HMKC 626.52
632.55 638.11
635.50 641.96
647.22 652.31
Endogen HMRC
655.64 660.07
665.07 670.42
675.77 680.76
685.46 Endogen
CSID 6308.52
6476.90 6647.06
6818.78 6991.89
7166.87 7342.64
Endogen CKID
3481.31 3573.38
3664.16 3762.34
3856.37 3948.30
4038.91 Endogen
MSID 6083.84
6237.91 6398.89
6562.12 6727.22
6897.53 7063.36
Endogen MKID
1679.74 1698.14
1803.13 1835.62
1895.31 1944.51
2003.28 Endogen
HMSID 506.79
509.98 512.83
515.34 517.51
518.82 520.06
Endogen HMKID
670.75 677.20
682.81 675.98
682.82 687.82
692.54 Endogen
CSP 2560.98
2623.00 2685.02
2747.16 2809.50
2872.23 2935.19
Endogen MSP
2487.67 2570.28
2640.46 2698.36
2746.09 2788.45
2830.51 Endogen
HMSP 548.83
552.64 556.15
559.29 562.03
563.82 565.42
Endogen CSEU
4159.54 4272.13
4383.62 4491.61
4595.62 4697.07
4796.04 Endogen
CKEU 1919.31
1934.09 1949.64
1972.83 1991.10
2008.34 2025.20
Endogen CREU
3434.28 3531.66
3629.82 3726.74
3821.02 3911.64
3998.87 Endogen
CMEU 2578.81
2622.78 2666.69
2705.86 2748.89
2790.36 2831.27
Endogen MSEU
9710.72 10040.79
10372.65 10704.73
11035.50 11364.30
11690.37 Endogen
MKEU 1172.80
1187.81 1203.47
1227.27 1244.45
1261.30 1277.91
Endogen MREU
2957.31 3046.79
3136.50 3224.65
3310.20 3392.47
3471.69 Endogen
MMEU 2715.81
2767.18 2823.35
2879.54 2938.97
2999.61 3060.86
Endogen HMSEU
550.38 552.76
554.69 556.34
557.68 558.14
558.74 Endogen
HMKEU 681.28
688.42 695.03
692.35 700.00
706.29 712.39
Endogen HMREU
802.84 811.88
821.67 831.92
842.18 851.96
861.36
Lampiran 11. Lanjutan
Variabel 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
2017 2018
Endogen HMMEU
778.25 774.17
773.83 774.59
775.68 777.02
778.17 Endogen
CKIR 728.43
734.03 741.83
753.25 763.19
768.77 775.86
Endogen CMIR
209.25 217.38
224.39 230.50
236.33 242.19
247.75 Endogen
MKIR 586.58
589.10 594.48
604.18 611.13
611.67 614.17
Endogen MMIR
217.21 226.13
233.76 240.36
246.63 252.94
258.91 Endogen
HMKIR 625.98
659.43 656.53
644.43 648.89
668.61 669.74
Endogen HMMIR
603.41 589.86
578.18 567.88
558.36 549.31
540.35 Endogen
CMMS 226.99
220.39 219.29
222.05 226.61
231.07 234.30
Endogen MMMS
191.86 188.99
193.13 200.22
207.34 212.26
214.46 Endogen
HMMMS 583.64
572.81 560.15
547.54 539.15
531.71 522.30
Endogen HSW
539.18 527.25
522.09 520.34
520.81 524.48
527.64 Endogen
HKW 642.62
679.80 676.37
663.12 669.42
693.59 696.65
Endogen HRW
772.25 776.77
783.09 789.04
795.93 803.24
812.13 Endogen
HMW 826.06
818.54 818.70
821.13 824.23
827.85 831.08
Endogen XSW
34956.83 35520.61
36073.77 36770.06
37562.29 38333.74
39286.88 Endogen
MSW 33194.27
33571.33 34095.57
34758.93 35535.17
36384.30 37312.08
Endogen XKW
12278.79 12695.01
12945.61 13620.06
13697.06 14071.95
14382.32 Endogen
MKW 11018.89
12011.94 11759.14
11982.35 12281.55
12941.24 12977.77
Endogen XRW
4326.55 4358.31
4396.68 4491.50
4597.27 4717.18
4842.84 Endogen
MRW 4123.26
4187.21 4255.55
4312.06 4388.21
4465.66 4565.46
Endogen XMW
4870.75 5005.13
5132.34 5254.90
5374.59 5492.48
5609.25 Endogen
MMW 5006.39
5063.22 5146.87
5236.77 5327.58
5419.33 5508.74
Variabel 2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024 2025
Endogen HMMEU
779.56 781.64
784.31 787.04
790.29 793.77
797.39 Endogen
CKIR 784.05
791.04 797.55
807.09 814.92
822.22 829.28
Endogen CMIR
253.13 258.53
263.89 269.02
274.25 279.48
284.69 Endogen
MKIR 617.81
619.44 620.22
625.00 627.08
628.34 629.17
Endogen MMIR
264.67 270.44
276.17 281.64
287.22 292.80
298.36 Endogen
HMKIR 670.24
679.18 687.24
680.91 690.50
697.98 705.15
Endogen HMMIR
531.56 523.28
515.58 508.19
501.25 494.68
488.34 Endogen
CMMS 235.96
236.34 236.08
235.80 235.92
236.55 237.62
Endogen MMMS
214.36 213.06
211.66 210.91
211.08 212.04
213.43 Endogen
HMMMS 513.04
505.37 498.12
490.56 483.63
477.31 471.05
Endogen HSW
531.24 535.09
538.33 541.18
543.63 544.90
546.35 Endogen
HKW 699.14
711.44 722.81
717.69 730.90
741.71 752.18
Endogen HRW
823.11 835.66
849.15 863.22
877.28 890.76
903.76 Endogen
HMW 834.80
839.95 846.29
852.76 860.29
868.32 876.62
Endogen XSW
40252.51 41245.87
42295.05 43356.51
44434.13 45569.41
46667.86 Endogen
MSW 38280.47
39275.36 40290.28
41311.80 42338.85
43375.69 44411.27
Endogen XKW
14857.25 15099.30
15456.96 15788.69
16187.59 16494.51
16846.63 Endogen
MKW 13312.80
13689.39 14031.48
14044.70 14615.26
14904.27 15239.34
Endogen XRW
4987.68 5140.10
5273.06 5394.12
5504.59 5608.43
5701.41 Endogen
MRW 4688.40
4819.61 4949.15
5077.80 5199.80
5311.27 5418.39
Endogen XMW
5725.28 5840.80
5955.96 6070.94
6185.78 6300.54
6415.23 Endogen
MMW 5599.69
5696.14 5797.28
5898.81 6004.61
6112.41 6221.23
Lampiran 12. Program Simulasi Dasar dan Peramalan Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-
2025
PROC SIMNLIN DATA=TESIS1 DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL
OUT=A; ENDOGENOUS
HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB
HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA
HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU
MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR
MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA;
EXOGENOUS TREN PRODCOW HCOW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW
MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI ERI PESI STOKSI LPOPI LASIN LASIS LASIR L3LASIN L3LASIS L3LASIR ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM
CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA
PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD ERCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS
LPOPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID IPID
POPID TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR;
PARM B0
241.8316 B1 -
0.02120 B2
0.023313 B3
0.474437
C0 182.7619
C1 - 0.03417
C2 0.051413
C3 0.487471
D0
143.6909
D1 -
0.01026
D2
0.062441
D3
0.539133
E0 380.0096
E1 - 0.15911
E2 0.243896
I0 0.089329
I1 - 1.12078
I2 0.858698
J0 243.9014
J1 0.116390
J2 - 0.21126
J3 - 0.43739
J4 0.804695
K0 72.46956
K1 0.013851
K2 - 0.24278
K3 0.778981
L0 0.000224
L1 - 0.00153
L2 - 0.00406
L3 0.992763
M0
0.001040
M1 -
0.00015
M2
0.88328
N0 0.000087
N1 0.000197
N2 - 0.00817
N3 - 0.00149
N4 0.584751
O0 4.662357
O1 0.157079
O2 - 464.243
O3 0.300709
P0
0.745129
P1 -
0.00176
P2 -
11.0698
P3
0.167411
Q0 1.405829
Q1 - 453.433
Q2 - 57.9413
Q3 0.008254
Q4 0.896068
R0 - 3450.09
R1 - 0.05438
R2 961.7034
R3 23.42292
R4 0.695843
S0
15.75933
S1
0.855158
S2 -
14.0676
S3 -
0.00528
S4
0.244956
T0 0.069857
T1 - 6.67733
T2 0.812459
T3 0.388918
T4 0.465425
U0 351.7565
U1 0.110846
U2 - 6.46154
U3 - 3.66984
U4 0.454223
V0
0.507638
V1 -
0.14320
V2
0.169727
W0 - 723.471
W1 0.229701
W2 - 0.41627
W3 100.4155
W4 0.440950
W5 0.116749
X0 -
903.105
X1 -
0.19697
X2 -
2.17634
X3
11.50532
X4
0.683214
Y0 39.59796
Y1 0.870944
Y2 - 4.28929
Y3 - 0.01236
Y4 0.066310
Z0 127.8220
Z1 0.104366
Z2 - 2.90880
Z3 0.521371
AA0 -
2039.83
AA1 -
41.4378
AA2
131.3494
AA3
66.68074
AB0 0.163538
AB1 - 0.41667
AB2 10.76324
AB3 0.909194
AC0 107.3276
AC1 0.550047
AC2 0.183935
AD0
0.162831
AD1 -
0.32333
AD2
0.399137
AD3
0.621045
AE0 - 225.772
AE1 5.172079
AE2 6.433590
Lampiran 12. Lanjutan
AF0 - 27.2357
AF1 0.065140
AF2 - 0.22921
AF3 - 2.04815
AF4 0.794059
AF5 0.011916
AG0
343.4989
AG1
0.457125
AG2
2.036429
AH0 0.855283
AH1 8.448790
AH2 - 0.42908
AI0 0.680184
AI1 7.412285
CG0
0.519024
CG1 -
0.12344
CG2
0.206917
CH0 7.249052
CH1 1.065817
CH2 0.013472
CH3 - 0.02424
CH4 0.066539
AJ0 441.8021
AJ1 65.10564
AJ2 - 0.27971
AJ3 0.077960
AK0
0.066989
AK1 -
0.05650
AK2
0.431599
AL0 56.36600
AL1 - 0.05946
AL2 - 0.52080
AL3 0.644072
AL4 0.230138
AM0 - 70.3891
AM1 0.709185
AM2 25.79298
AN0 -
3516.09
AN1 -
0.79295
AN2 -
6.57461
AN3
0.299084
AN4
16.70166
AO0 0.636471
AO1 0.079828
AO2 - 0.15465
AO3 0.542992
CE0 0.990814
CE1 - 0.00435
CE2 0.015832
CE3 0.063175
AP0
5.123725
AP1 -
0.32645
AP2
0.583089
AP3
0.414745
AQ0 - 169.133
AQ1 - 0.00666
AQ2 4.062721
AQ3 1.131358
AQ4 0.797579
AR0 0.689993
AR1 0.334226
AS0 -
799.987
AS1 -
0.30548
AS2
12.74509
AS3
0.433641
AT0 2310.386
AT1 - 0.13369
AT2 - 9.75469
AT3 - 39.9513
AT4 784.9596
AT5 0.463356
AU0
0.359474
AU1
7.690904
AU2
0.345766
AV0 353.3033
AV1 - 2.37764
AV2 - 27.9014
AV3 82.52237
AW0 216.4328
AW1 - 0.00951
AW2 - 14.3876
AW3 0.112771
AW4 0.369714
AX0
175.0135
AX1
0.563480
AX2
4.251363
AY0 133.9674
AY1 0.746373
AY2 1.444464
AZ0 0.798185
AZ1 7.037101
BA0
336.7428
BA1
0.486808
BA2
2.017002
BB0 - 0.77048
BB1 0.615640
BB2 0.503863
BB3 1400.688
BB4 0.026403
BB5 0.374336
BC0 -
825.988
BC1 -
732.909
BC2
0.478277
BC3
0.118464
BD0 - 10473.3
BD1 - 1.76015
BD2 1.236793
BD3 590.7302
BD4 0.040975
BD5 24.40434
BD6 0.604560
BE0 -
5268.47
BE1 -
0.59224
BE2
0.768582
BE3
15.21893
BE4
10.89263
BE5
0.908926
BF0 - 0.30298
BF1 - 91.3233
BF2 0.702171
BG0 - 0.23946
BG1 0.399460
BG2 0.871883
BH0 154.2939
BH1 - 0.72911
BH2 0.986633
BI0 30.12616
BI1 - 0.18123
BI2 - 0.30879
BI3 0.761962
BI4 0.650198
BJ0 - 13375.0
BJ1 - 2.99543
BJ2 0.175097
BJ3 1.794438
BJ4 145.2790
BJ5 1.223164
BJ6 3.447816
BK0 - 1707.87
BK1 - 0.16965
BK2 0.014549
BK3 1.844396
BK4 0.796551
BL0
0.854980
BL1
2.071625
BM0
264.6960
BM1
0.494498
BM2
0.215192
BN0 127.0903
BN1 0.605879
BN2 3.956275
BO0 - 6128.81
BO1 - 0.00352
BO2 0.257495
BO3 0.114741
BO4 6.436799
BO5
0.362579
BP0 - 0.29663
BP1 0.346245
BP2 0.593307
BQ0 41.04146
BQ1 - 0.02139
BQ2 - 0.44848
BQ3 0.457126
BQ4 0.288498
BR0
274.0120
BR1 -
0.12175
BR2
1.029408
BS0 10490.41
BS1 - 91.5287
BS2 - 180.130
BS3 - 70.7774
BT0 42.28541
BT1 0.665738
BT2 23.18987
BT3 0.218731
BU0
0.748755
BU1
5.162068
BV0 - 10086.8
BV1 - 1.17667
BV2 0.756096
BV3 11.43984
BW0 - 4107.24
BW1 - 0.68285
BW2 0.414404
BW3 57.07257
BW4 1.570795
BW5
0.716798
Lampiran 12. Lanjutan
BX0 64.95581
BX1 - 0.07863
BX2 - 0.96035
BX3 0.986032
BY0 0.870527
BY1 2.671920
BZ0
0.295125
BZ1
5.422256
BZ2
0.465672
CA0 - 0.22872
CA1 0.132785
CA2 4.461250
CA3 0.623417
CB0 - 839.868
CB1 - 12.2172
CB2 13.86352
CB3 2.248393
CB4 0.497034
CC0 -
0.06288
CC1 -
1.07570
CC2
1.106310
CC3
0.086497
CD0 - 0.00270
CD1 - 0.92889
CD2 1.144923
; HSW
= B0+B1XSW+B2MSW+B3LHSW; HKW = C0+C1XKW+C2MKW+C3LHKW;
HRW = D0+D1XRW+D2MRW+D3LHRW;
HMW = E0+E1XMW+E2MMW; LASMIN = I0LHESI+I1RHCPI+I2L3LASIN;
LASMIS = J0+J1LHESI+J2RHCPI+J3USPI+J4L3LASIS; LASMIR = K0+K1LHDSI+K2USPI+K3LLASIR;
YIESIN = L0HESI+L1RHCPI+L2DLASMIN+L3LYIESIN; YIESIS = M0HESI+M1DLASMIS+M2LYIESIS;
YIESIR = N0HDSI+N1LHDSI+N2RHCPI+N3DLASMIR+N4LYIESIR; HDSI = O0HESI+O1ERI+O2RTSDSI+O3LHDSI;
HESI = P0HSW+P1ERI+P2RXSI+P3LHESI; XSI = Q0HESI+Q1RHDSI+Q2PESI+Q3ERI+Q4SXSI;
CSI = R0+R1HDSI+R2RHCOW+R3POPI+R4LCSI; HESM = S0+S1HSW+S2ERM+S3XSM+S4LHESM;
XSM = T0HESM+T1PESM+T2STOKSM+T3PRODSM+T4LXSM; HEKB = U0+U1HKW+U2ERB+U3PEKB+U4LHEKB;
HDKB = V0HEKB+V1SDKB+V2CKB; XKB
= W0+W1HEKB+W2HDKB+W3ERB+W4PRODKB+W5LXKB; CKB
= X0+X1HDKB+X2RRHDKBRHCOW+X3POPB+X4LCKB; HEKA = Y0+Y1HKW+Y2ERA+Y3XKA+Y4LHEKA;
HDKA = Z0+Z1HEKA+Z2RSDCKA+Z3LHDKA; CKA = AA0+AA1RHDKA+AA2RHCOW+AA3POPA;
XKA = AB0HEKA+AB1HDKA+AB2ERA+AB3PRODKA; HEMA = AC0+AC1HMW+AC2LHEMA;
HDMA = AD0HEMA+AD1SDMA+AD2CMA+AD3LHDMA; CMA = AE0RHDMKA+AE1HCOW+AE2POPA;
XMA = AF0+AF1HEMA+AF2HDMA+AF3PEMA+AF4PRODMA+AF5LXMA; HEKUSA = AG0+AG1HKW+AG2SEKUSA;
HERUSA = AH0HRW+AH1SERUSA+AH2XRUSA; HMRUSA = AI0HRW+AI1TMRUSA;
HDKUSA = CG0HEKUSA+CG1SDKUSA+CG2CKUSA; HDRUSA = CH0+CH1HERUSA+CH2HMRUSA+CH3SDRUSA+CH4CRUSA;
XKUSA = AJ0+AJ1RHEKUSA+AJ2HDKUSA+AJ3PRODKUSA; XRUSA = AK0HERUSA+AK1HDRUSA+AK2PRODRUSA;
MRUSA = AL0+AL1HMRUSA+AL2STOKRUSA+AL3CRUSA+AL4LMRUSA; CKUSA = AM0RHDKUSAHCOW+AM1HDRUSA+AM2POPUSA;
CRUSA = AN0+AN1HDRUSA+AN2RHDRUSAHCOW+AN3HDKUSA+AN4POPUSA; HERCD = AO0HRW+AO1SERCD+AO2XRCD+AO3LHERCD;
HDRCD = CE0HERCD+CE1PRODRCD+CE2CRCD+CE3LHDRCD; XRCD = AP0RHERCD+AP1HDRCD+AP2PRODRCD+AP3LXRCD;
CRCD = AQ0+AQ1HDRCD+AQ2HCOW+AQ3POPCD+AQ4LCRCD; HMSP = AR0HSW+AR1LHMSP;
CSP
= AS0+AS1HMSP+AS2POPP+AS3LCSP; MSP
= AT0+AT1HMSP+AT2ERP+AT3TMSP+AT4RCSP+AT5LMSP; HMMMS = AU0HMW+AU1TMMMS+AU2LHMMMS;
MMMS = AV0+AV1RHMMMS+AV2ERMS+AV3RCMMS; CMMS = AW0+AW1HMMMS+AW2ERMS+AW3POPMS+AW4LCMMS;
Lampiran 12. Lanjutan
HMKEU = AX0+AX1HKW+AX2TMKEU; HMSEU
= AY0+AY1HSW+AY2TMSEU; HMREU = AZ0HRW+AZ1TMREU;
HMMEU = BA0+BA1HMW+BA2TMMEU; CKEU = BB0HMKEU+BB1HMREU+BB2HMMEU+BB3RHCOW+BB4IPEU
+BB5LCKEU; CMEU = BC0+BC1RHMMREU+BC2HMKEU+BC3IPEU;
CSEU = BD0+BD1HMSEU+BD2HMMEU+BD3RHCOW+BD4IPEU+BD5POPEU +BD6LCSEU;
CREU = BE0+BE1HMREU+BE2HMSEU+BE3HCOW+BE4POPEU+BE5LCREU; MKEU = BF0HMKEU+BF1EREU+BF2CKEU;
MSEU = BG0HMSEU+BG1CSEU+BG2LMSEU; MREU = BH0+BH1HMREU+BH2CREU;
MMEU = BI0+BI1HMMEU+BI2PRODMEU+BI3CMEU+BI4LMMEU; HMSC = BL0HSW+BL1TMSC;
HMKC = BM0+BM1HKW+BM2TMKC; HMRC = BN0+BN1HRW+BN2TMRC;
CSC = BJ0+BJ1HMSC+BJ2HMKC+BJ3HMRC+BJ4HCOW+BJ5IPC+BJ6POPC; CKC = BK0+BK1HMKC+BK2IPC+BK3POPC+BK4LCKC;
CRC
= BO0+BO1HMRC+BO2HMKC+BO3IPC+BO4POPC+BO5LCRC; MKC = BP0HMKC+BP1CKC+BP2LMKC;
MRC = BQ0+BQ1HMRC+BQ2PRODRC+BQ3CRC+BQ4LMRC; MSC = BR0+BR1HMSC+BR2CSC;
HMSID = BT0+BT1HSW+BT2RCSID+BT3LHMSID; HMKID = BU0HKW+BU1TMKID;
CSID = BV0+BV1HMSID+BV2IPID+BV3POPID; CKID = BW0+BW1HMKID+BW2HMSID+BW3HCOW+BW4POPID+BW5LCKID;
MSID = BS0+BS1RRHMSIDRCSID+BS2TMSID+BS3ERID; MKID = BX0+BX1HMKID+BX2PRODKID+BX3CKID;
HMKIR = BY0HKW+BY1TMKIR; HMMIR = BZ0HMW+BZ1TMMIR+BZ2LHMMIR;
CKIR = CA0HMKIR+CA1HMMIR+CA2POPIR+CA3LCKIR; CMIR = CB0+CB1RHMMKIR+CB2HCOW+CB3POPIR+CB4LCMIR;
MKIR = CC0HMKIR+CC1PRODKIR+CC2CKIR+CC3LMKIR; MMIR = CD0HMMIR+CD1PRODMIR+CD2CMIR;
PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW;
XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW;
XMW = XMA+XMRW; MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW;
MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW;
MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI;
SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB;
SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA;
SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA;
Lampiran 12. Lanjutan
LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS;
LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR;
LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI = LAGXSI; LHCOW = LAGHCOW
LCSI = LAGCSI;
LXSI=LAGXSI; LXSM
= LAGXSM; LMSC
= LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU;
LMSID = LAGMSID
LMSP = LAGMSP;
LCSC = LAGCSC;
LCSEU = LAGCSEU;
LCSID = LAGCSID;
LCSP = LAGCSP;
LHSW = LAGHSW;
LHESI = LAGHESI;
LHESM = LAGHESM;
LHDSI = LAGHDSI;
LHMSC = LAGHMSC;
LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU; LHMSID
= LAGHMSID; LHMSP
= LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA;
LXKB = LAGXKB;
LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC;
LMKID = LAGMKID;
LMKEU = LAGMKEU;
LMKIR = LAGMKIR; LCKA
= LAGCKA; LCKB
= LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA;
LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID
= LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU;
LCKIR = LAGCKIR;
LHKW = LAGHKW;
LHEKA = LAGHEKA; LHEKB
= LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC
= LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID;
LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU;
LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD;
LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA; LMREU = LAGMREU;
LMRC = LAGMRC; LCRCD = LAGCRCD;
LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA;
LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC;
LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD;
LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA;
LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU;
LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU;
LMMMS = LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA;
LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR;
LHMW = LAGHMW;
LHEMA = LAGHEMA; LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU;
LHMMMS = LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR;
LHDKB = LAGHDKB; LHDKA
= LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA;
LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; ID
TAHUN; RANGE TAHUN =
2012
TO
2025
; RUN
; PROC PRINT
DATA =A;
VAR LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR PRODSI SDSI SXSI
CSI XSI HDSI HESI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB SDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA SDKA SDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA
HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA SDKUSA SDRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU
HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID
MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR HSW HKW HRW HMW XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW;
RUN ;
Lampiran 13. Hasil Simulasi Dasar dan Peramalan Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-
2025
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 184
Endogenous 97 Exogenous 87
Parameters 326 Range Variable Tahun
ID Variables 1 Equations 99
Number of Statements 180 Program Lag Length 1
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options
DATA= TESIS1 OUT= A
Solution Summary Variables Solved 97
Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range Tahun
First 2012 Last 2025
Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8
Maximum CC
9.356E-9 Maximum Iterations 3
Total Iterations 37 Average Iterations
2.642857 Observations Processed
Read 15 Lagged 1
Solved 14 First 33
Last 46
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2025
Descriptive Statistics Actual
Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
HSW 14 14 533.0 9.3488 532.1 9.9246 H_SWT_W HKW 14 14 699.8 31.6069
699.7 31.6347 H_KDL_W HRW 14 14 826.8 43.8698 826.5 43.8888 H_RAPE_W
HMW 14 14 839.0 19.0369 839.0 19.0382 H_MTHR_W LASMIN 14 14 702.3
70.4786 719.0 61.6568 L_TM_PBN LASMIS 14 14 3412.0 396.8
3411.9 396.9 L_TM_PBS LASMIR 14 14 2648.0 256.8 2647.9 256.8 L_TM_PR
YIESIN 14 14 4.1253 0.0954 4.1234 0.0956
YELD_PBN YIESIS 14 14 3.9507 0.0318 3.9454 0.0323
YELD_PBS YIESIR 14 14 3.1312 0.0477 3.1276 0.0488
YELD_PR HDSI
14 14 4926.5 109.0 4921.0 113.1 HD_S_INA HESI 14 14 452.3 7.8265 451.4 8.1925 HE_S_INA
CSI 14 14 7204.8 901.8 7205.7 901.5 C_S_INA XSI 14 14 17401.8 1689.4 17436.8 1668.0 X_S_INA
HESM 14 14 437.0 10.0360 436.0 9.5728 HE_S_MAS XSM 14 14 18579.9 1806.6 18579.8
1806.7 X_S_MAS HEKB 14 14 630.3 9.1369 630.3 9.1382 HE_K_BRL
HDKB 14 14 409.2 12.2183 409.1 12.1859 HD_K_BRL CKB 14 14 4393.7
160.2 4393.2 160.3 C_K_BRL XKB 14 14 3228.9 340.9 3228.9 340.9 X_K_BRL
HEKA 14 14 584.8 18.4269 584.7 18.4518 HE_K_ARG HDKA 14 14
385.7 2.8940 385.7 2.9025 HD_K_ARG HEMA 14 14 696.8 12.1374 696.8 12.1382 HE_M_ARG
HDMA 14 14 256.3 8.6618 256.3 8.6633 HD_M_ARG CKA
14 14 922.3 120.1 922.3 120.1 C_K_ARG CMA 14 14 429.1 16.2352 429.1 16.2350 C_M_ARG
XKA 14 14 7520.5 873.7 7520.5 873.7 X_K_ARG XMA
14 14 1599.3 109.3 1599.3 109.3 X_M_ARG HEKUSA 14 14 729.9 15.1236 729.9 15.1264 HE_K_USA
HERUSA 14 14 802.7 27.9944 802.4 28.0130 HE_R_USA
HMRUSA 14 14 691.8 14.0695 691.6 14.1233 HM_R_USA HDRUSA 14 14 929.1 36.3728 928.8 36.3885 HD_R_USA
HDKUSA 14 14 722.9 10.5677 722.8 10.5515 HD_K_USA
MRUSA 14 14 1135.7 130.9 1135.9 130.9 M_R_USA CKUSA 14 14 8372.9 346.8 8372.7 346.8 C_K_USA
CRUSA 14 14 1431.7 165.4 1431.9 165.4 C_R_USA
XKUSA 14 14 1104.6 56.8888 1104.6 56.8864 X_K_USA XRUSA 14 14 258.7 31.1421 258.7 31.1422 X_R_USA
HERCD 14 14 595.7 16.6828 595.2 16.7206 HE_R_CD
HDRCD 14 14 628.8 18.3816 628.3 18.4269 HD_R_CD CRCD 14 14 478.5 8.2914 478.5 8.2983 C_R_CD
XRCD 14 14 1647.2 226.2 1647.4 226.3 X_R_CD
HMSP 14 14 553.1 9.4199 552.1 9.8069 HM_S_PKT CSP 14 14 2526.7 264.5 2527.3 264.2 C_S_PKT
MSP 14 14 2424.7 293.6 2424.9 293.5 M_S_PKT
HMMMS 14 14 521.2 36.0002 521.2 36.0013 HM_M_MS CMMS 14 14 231.1 6.6613 231.1 6.6615
C_M_MS MMMS 14 14 206.8 9.1402 206.8 9.1401 M_M_MS
HMKEU 14 14 681.6 18.6329 681.5 18.6487 HM_K_EU HMSEU 14 14 552.0 5.6482 551.3
5.9584 HM_S_EU HMREU 14 14 806.3 30.9976 806.0 31.0145 HM_R_EU
HMMEU 14 14 781.8 7.6322 781.8 7.6331 HM_M_EU
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2025
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label CKEU 14
14 1919.8 62.5593 1919.6 62.5325 C_K_EU CSEU 14 14 4106.6 449.5 4109.6 447.6 C_S_EU
CREU 14 14 3411.6 367.9 3408.7 368.4 C_R_EU CMEU
14 14 2560.9 176.3 2560.8 176.3 C_M_EU MKEU 14 14 1168.9 67.5693 1168.8 67.5433 M_K_EU
MSEU 14 14 9559.6 1365.3 9567.2 1365.8 M_S_EU MREU 14 14 2932.4 340.6 2929.8 341.1 M_R_EU
MMEU 14 14 2722.4 194.0 2722.3 194.0 M_M_EU HMSC 14 14 482.5 5.4258 481.7 5.2462
HM_S_CN HMKC 14 14 626.6 15.7753 626.5 15.7887 HM_K_CN
HMRC 14 14 659.2 13.9073 659.0 13.9267 HM_R_CN CSC 14 14 6338.3 514.5 6340.4
512.6 C_S_CN CKC 14 14 4414.8 521.8 4414.8 521.8 C_K_CN
CRC 14 14 6477.1 622.9 6477.1 622.9 C_R_CN MSC 14 14 6740.0 529.6
6742.2 527.6 M_S_CN MKC 14 14 3167.9 411.5 3167.9 411.6 M_K_CN
MRC 14 14 392.7 33.2023 392.6 33.1988 M_R_CN HMSID 14 14 509.5
7.8255 508.7 8.1983 HM_S_ID HMKID 14 14 669.5 16.3871 669.5 16.4015 HM_K_ID
CSID 14 14 6234.8 702.4 6235.7 701.6 C_S_ID CKID 14 14
3434.0 391.1 3433.1 391.6 C_K_ID MSID 14 14 6068.5 593.4 6068.5 593.4 M_S_ID
MKID 14 14 1705.0 171.9 1704.1 172.4 M_K_ID HMKIR 14
14 670.3 21.9612 670.3 21.9831 HM_K_IR HMMIR 14 14 539.3 36.5238 539.3 36.5252 HM_M_IR
CKIR 14 14 779.4 32.7891 779.4 32.7887 C_K_IR CMIR
14 14 249.3 23.7061 249.3 23.7060 C_M_IR MKIR 14 14 612.7 14.2821 612.8 14.2872 M_K_IR
MMIR 14 14 260.5 25.4619 260.5 25.4618 M_M_IR SDSI 14 14 9115.4 1113.7 9121.6 1109.0
SD_S_INA SXSI 14 14 19312.4 1901.2 19352.7 1876.0
SX_S_INA PRODSI 14 14 24656.1 2566.0 24697.3
2538.2 PRDS_INA
SDKB 14 14 4584.4 297.0 4584.4 297.0 SD_K_BRL SDKA 14 14 1494.2 169.2 1494.2 169.2 SD_K_ARG
SDMA 14 14 585.9 27.3463 585.9 27.3440 SD_M_ARG
SDKUSA 14 14 11247.8 713.4 11247.8 713.4 SD_K_USA SDRUSA 14 14 1580.7 183.2 1580.9 183.2 SD_R_USA
XSW 14 14 40166.1 3857.8 40200.9 3833.2
X_SWT_W MSW 14 14 38152.5 3762.5 38162.6 3760.4
M_SWT_W XKW 14 14 14601.6 1453.8 14601.6 1453.8
X_KDL_W MKW 14
14 13200.7 1283.3 13199.8 1283.8 M_KDL_W
XRW 14 14 4952.8 487.5 4953.1 487.6 X_RAPE_W
MRW 14 14 4697.3 436.1 4694.8 436.7 M_RAPE_W
XMW 14 14 5659.6 492.8 5659.6 492.8
X_MTHR_W MMW 14 14 5574.2 395.5 5574.2 395.5
M-MTHR_W
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2012 2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
2018
Endogen LASMIN
610.02 614.17
655.92 707.33
662.22 717.33
737.33 Endogen
LASMIS 2849.09
2911.09 2984.05
3065.22 3152.65
3245.26 3340.64
Endogen LASMIR
2294.99 2331.29
2374.26 2422.79
2476.04 2533.59
2594.20 Endogen
YIESIN 4.2382
4.1375 4.1837
4.0715 3.9255
4.1767 4.0223
Endogen YIESIS
4.0126 4.0019
3.9834 3.9623
3.9472 3.9332
3.9230 Endogen
YIESIR 3.2257
3.2048 3.1596
3.1168 3.0894
3.0782 3.0740
Endogen PRODSI
21420.67 21662.41
22132.62 22576.66
22693.13 23559.25
24045.71 Endogen
SDSI 7400.21
7668.40 7949.05
8216.10 8432.50
8729.91 8980.32
Endogen SXSI
17144.26 17214.54
17514.03 17789.05
17740.05 18442.82
18768.06 Endogen
XSI 15526.60
15554.75 15798.93
16030.53 15985.20
16608.53 16899.19
Endogen CSI
5782.55 6008.62
6233.95 6457.58
6677.66 6895.62
7111.45 Endogen
HESI 460.46
449.05 441.85
438.47 442.80
442.81 445.44
Endogen HDSI
4869.82 4819.98
4790.23 4781.07
4812.50 4835.43
4867.59 Endogen
XSM 15932.22
16258.79 16625.26
17019.82 17434.39
17862.27 18299.48
Endogen HESM
464.86 447.36
435.34 428.29
430.48 428.38
429.20 Endogen
XKA 6169.22
6377.88 6582.27
6786.45 6993.82
7203.78 7411.88
Endogen XMA
1406.79 1449.43
1484.91 1515.74
1543.68 1569.83
1594.86 Endogen
SDKA 1220.59
1264.80 1311.60
1357.53 1399.61
1438.73 1479.51
Endogen SDMA
539.94 548.98
556.89 564.24
571.15 577.73
584.08 Endogen
CKA 734.80
763.51 792.81
822.10 851.02
879.67 908.54
Endogen CMA
399.57 406.67
412.39 416.74
420.85 425.26
429.11 Endogen
HEKA 549.91
579.32 575.73
561.40 563.41
582.03 583.38
Endogen HEMA
691.53 684.76
683.60 684.72
686.63 688.97
691.18 Endogen
HDKA 390.47
387.04 384.89
382.28 381.15
382.53 383.41
Endogen HDMA
278.89 269.52
263.23 258.88
255.89 254.04
252.74
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2019 2020
2021 2022
2023 2024
2025
Endogen LASMIN
736.15 753.36
752.63 748.07
790.88 784.91
795.90 Endogen
LASMIS 3438.84
3539.20 3640.92
3743.86 3847.63
3951.71 4056.64
Endogen LASMIR
2657.62 2723.47
2791.22 2860.63
2931.43 3003.21
3076.11 Endogen
YIESIN 4.0100
4.0844 4.0848
4.1588 4.2482
4.1451 4.2402
Endogen YIESIS
3.9181 3.9165
3.9183 3.9228
3.9263 3.9318
3.9379 Endogen
YIESIR 3.0767
3.0863 3.1005
3.1181 3.1360
3.1521 3.1687
Endogen PRODSI
24602.26 25343.63
25994.88 26717.01
27659.69 28257.47
29096.70 Endogen
SDSI 9233.24
9505.64 9766.62
10034.90 10330.69
10586.33 10869.16
Endogen SXSI
19165.51 19749.18
20243.79 20809.97
21596.41 22038.20
22721.45 Endogen
XSI 17257.43
17781.02 18225.90
18734.36 19435.87
19832.61 20443.62
Endogen CSI
7325.16 7537.48
7748.74 7959.29
8170.14 8380.74
8591.33 Endogen
HESI 449.71
452.63 455.99
458.86 458.61
461.04 462.22
Endogen HDSI
4910.04 4949.23
4989.43 5027.60
5050.56 5081.43
5108.85 Endogen
XSM 18743.18
19191.19 19642.16
20095.12 20549.20
21004.29 21459.97
Endogen HESM
431.98 433.38
435.23 436.49
434.13 434.59
433.71 Endogen
XKA 7620.51
7830.74 8041.23
8250.27 8461.67
8672.99 8884.38
Endogen XMA
1619.15 1642.93
1666.36 1689.60
1712.71 1735.72
1758.67 Endogen
SDKA 1519.68
1558.25 1596.62
1636.52 1674.14
1711.94 1749.76
Endogen SDMA
590.28 596.43
602.56 608.65
614.71 620.77
626.82 Endogen
CKA 937.28
965.83 994.34
1022.97 1051.32
1079.67 1108.02
Endogen CMA
432.62 436.16
439.62 442.55
445.67 448.80
451.90 Endogen
HEKA 583.10
591.24 599.11
592.65 601.12
608.50 615.51
Endogen HEMA
693.63 696.91
701.01 705.32
710.26 715.58
721.13 Endogen
HDKA 383.86
384.97 386.39
386.47 387.42
388.71 390.13
Endogen HDMA
251.72 251.06
250.71 250.39
250.29 250.38
250.62
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2012 2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
2018
Endogen XKB
2695.00 2779.03
2862.58 2944.63
3027.01 3108.77
3190.24 Endogen
SDKB 4138.36
4198.86 4263.28
4331.38 4400.53
4471.19 4542.69
Endogen CKB
4103.21 4166.12
4217.82 4276.00
4316.27 4357.30
4394.51 Endogen
HEKB 614.94
616.28 620.84
621.08 625.37
628.28 631.41
Endogen HDKB
415.98 418.67
420.54 420.78
419.89 418.22
415.88 Endogen
XKUSA 1019.25
1032.12 1041.97
1054.74 1069.05
1083.66 1097.19
Endogen XRUSA
211.95 218.05
224.92 232.12
239.52 246.96
254.48 Endogen
SDKUSA 10214.62
10353.89 10439.92
10575.72 10780.29
10998.26 11182.32
Endogen SDRUSA
1297.07 1332.29
1378.15 1426.67
1471.37 1518.97
1569.42 Endogen
CKUSA 7861.38
7924.14 7995.40
8070.83 8156.18
8238.53 8324.21
Endogen CRUSA
1161.98 1212.77
1253.43 1295.82
1334.59 1377.73
1418.65 Endogen
MRUSA 912.40
960.33 998.88
1032.98 1064.10
1096.20 1122.24
Endogen HEKUSA
691.92 711.69
714.83 720.37
726.75 737.54
736.48 Endogen
HERUSA 772.52
767.57 774.20
778.46 785.20
787.39 791.77
Endogen HDKUSA
724.88 730.94
736.70 738.41
734.13 729.87
724.32 Endogen
HDRUSA 885.82
883.06 891.63
897.72 906.34
910.39 916.60
Endogen HMRUSA
692.46 691.56
685.27 678.06
673.71 673.39
677.05 Endogen
XRCD 1412.70
1394.92 1377.21
1412.32 1456.18
1512.98 1574.78
Endogen CRCD
465.05 467.43
469.65 471.74
473.75 475.72
477.67 Endogen
HERCD 600.37
604.84 613.86
616.95 616.19
611.57 605.09
Endogen HDRCD
634.65 639.18
648.50 651.86
651.13 646.26
639.30 Endogen
CSC 5716.70
5757.34 5817.03
5889.61 5961.92
6073.00 6186.08
Endogen CKC
3605.71 3727.23
3850.91 3977.04
4103.31 4228.09
4353.31 Endogen
CRC 5517.72
5663.33 5807.97
5951.97 6098.79
6249.38 6398.94
Endogen MSC
6098.48 6141.56
6203.91 6279.09
6353.02 6467.65
6583.85
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2019 2020
2021 2022
2023 2024
2025
Endogen XKB
3271.29 3352.20
3433.58 3513.72
3594.64 3675.23
3756.48 Endogen
SDKB 4614.96
4687.60 4759.91
4833.56 4906.48
4979.77 5052.43
Endogen CKB
4431.77 4466.51
4491.17 4531.75
4557.50 4587.95
4607.48 Endogen
HEKB 633.58
635.40 639.08
637.97 639.10
639.15 641.28
Endogen HDKB
412.96 409.38
405.08 400.85
395.36 390.05
384.05 Endogen
XKUSA 1110.87
1124.42 1138.00
1152.08 1166.61
1180.36 1193.93
Endogen XRUSA
262.02 269.61
277.21 284.83
292.44 300.05
307.65 Endogen
SDKUSA 11334.39
11487.35 11660.77
11846.82 12028.30
12199.60 12366.36
Endogen SDRUSA
1607.57 1650.43
1693.24 1733.78
1775.40 1819.26
1858.51 Endogen
CKUSA 8407.63
8490.29 8575.29
8666.02 8752.32
8836.82 8919.27
Endogen CRUSA
1459.19 1497.38
1534.60 1569.62
1606.29 1643.39
1681.06 Endogen
MRUSA 1157.91
1189.84 1218.79
1245.94 1273.39
1299.19 1330.01
Endogen HEKUSA
734.12 737.54
741.41 737.59
739.60 741.90
746.18 Endogen
HERUSA 797.23
806.28 815.73
826.04 835.20
844.09 852.41
Endogen HDKUSA
721.59 721.59
719.78 713.60
710.10 707.63
706.33 Endogen
HDRUSA 924.28
935.52 947.13
959.54 970.80
981.73 992.21
Endogen HMRUSA
683.55 690.77
697.38 703.04
707.76 711.93
716.12 Endogen
XRCD 1655.34
1743.18 1811.41
1867.61 1913.20
1952.14 1980.21
Endogen CRCD
479.63 481.62
483.59 485.53
487.42 489.23
490.97 Endogen
HERCD 596.06
585.53 577.83
573.90 573.59
575.94 581.09
Endogen HDRCD
629.56 618.16
609.62 605.02
604.30 606.45
611.62 Endogen
CSC 6309.11
6449.54 6596.09
6749.94 6920.67
7083.36 7254.76
Endogen CKC
4478.78 4603.53
4727.68 4852.63
4976.58 5099.86
5222.55 Endogen
CRC 6548.13
6698.57 6849.38
6998.18 7148.55
7299.06 7449.51
Endogen MSC
6710.15 6854.58
7005.22 7163.46
7339.49 7506.81
7683.33
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2012 2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
2018
Endogen MKC
2577.85 2637.22
2715.66 2807.75
2905.15 3002.58
3103.29 Endogen
MRC 358.63
354.82 356.03
359.50 365.43
374.03 383.04
Endogen HMSC
495.70 485.43
477.98 474.16
478.36 476.02
477.67 Endogen
HMKC 597.11
616.16 614.85
608.50 611.74
623.74 625.25
Endogen HMRC
645.23 645.64
646.66 647.22
648.35 649.65
651.87 Endogen
CSID 5155.48
5321.43 5486.99
5651.68 5811.08
5977.22 6142.79
Endogen CKID
2822.27 2915.19
3008.29 3108.52
3207.16 3294.41
3385.50 Endogen
MSID 5272.06
5351.19 5437.01
5542.57 5663.41
5788.27 5934.13
Endogen MKID
1399.30 1517.82
1618.22 1536.61
1626.92 1635.06
1666.77 Endogen
HMSID 517.05
506.21 499.24
495.97 499.79
500.07 502.70
Endogen HMKID
630.62 662.35
661.29 651.30
654.95 671.29
671.33 Endogen
CSP 2111.06
2175.87 2242.65
2309.05 2372.91
2436.52 2499.34
Endogen MSP
2025.88 2040.88
2077.19 2135.68
2211.36 2299.98
2395.54 Endogen
HMSP 565.10
551.71 542.49
537.63 540.73
541.21 544.04
Endogen CSEU
3427.48 3521.41
3624.81 3732.26
3832.50 3941.41
4051.57 Endogen
CKEU 1841.97
1835.46 1847.94
1870.09 1886.02
1891.44 1903.09
Endogen CREU
2878.38 2950.93
3018.87 3087.86
3165.12 3247.02
3335.95 Endogen
CMEU 2260.59
2328.01 2384.67
2426.63 2464.39
2503.46 2539.34
Endogen MSEU
7459.26 7778.74
8099.93 8423.47
8744.50 9068.16
9393.79 Endogen
MKEU 1077.33
1074.37 1091.36
1116.55 1133.82
1140.51 1155.05
Endogen MREU
2433.52 2503.22
2567.37 2632.77
2705.68 2782.95
2866.24 Endogen
MMEU 2476.83
2486.97 2518.20
2553.76 2590.55
2630.44 2671.07
Endogen HMSEU
557.39 549.27
543.66 541.25
545.87 544.78
547.19 Endogen
HMKEU 647.98
669.11 667.36
660.06 663.83
677.66 679.59
Endogen HMREU
768.99 771.56
775.53 779.18
783.73 788.58
794.68
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2019 2020
2021 2022
2023 2024
2025
Endogen MKC
3206.13 3308.55
3410.65 3515.25
3618.32 3720.60
3822.25 Endogen
MRC 392.04
401.61 411.51
420.59 430.15
439.93 449.76
Endogen HMSC
480.56 481.60
483.42 484.55
482.20 483.56
482.90 Endogen
HMKC 626.46
632.51 638.08
635.49 641.94
647.20 652.29
Endogen HMRC
655.38 659.84
664.88 670.27
675.61 680.61
685.31 Endogen
CSID 6308.45
6477.08 6646.68
6817.90 6993.46
7167.21 7342.84
Endogen CKID
3480.41 3572.70
3663.85 3762.44
3855.90 3947.89
4038.53 Endogen
MSID 6083.84
6237.90 6398.89
6562.12 6727.22
6897.52 7063.36
Endogen MKID
1678.87 1697.48
1802.83 1835.71
1894.86 1944.11
2002.92 Endogen
HMSID 506.81
509.80 513.17
516.08 516.18
518.55 519.85
Endogen HMKID
670.66 677.13
682.76 675.96
682.79 687.79
692.50 Endogen
CSP 2561.32
2623.23 2685.03
2746.93 2809.79
2872.48 2935.39
Endogen MSP
2487.84 2570.39
2640.47 2698.25
2746.21 2788.56
2830.61 Endogen
HMSP 548.66
552.39 556.46
560.08 560.74
563.41 565.12
Endogen CSEU
4161.54 4273.69
4383.79 4490.40
4597.85 4698.36
4797.12 Endogen
CKEU 1919.05
1933.83 1949.40
1972.63 1990.91
2008.17 2025.03
Endogen CREU
3430.96 3528.67
3627.58 3725.39
3818.64 3909.61
3997.00 Endogen
CMEU 2578.78
2622.75 2666.67
2705.85 2748.88
2790.35 2831.26
Endogen MSEU
9720.79 10050.25
10380.86 10711.23
11042.46 11370.88
11696.58 Endogen
MKEU 1172.63
1187.65 1203.31
1227.14 1244.32
1261.18 1277.80
Endogen MREU
2954.28 3044.07
3134.48 3223.47
3308.00 3390.62
3469.98 Endogen
MMEU 2715.74
2767.11 2823.30
2879.50 2938.94
2999.58 3060.83
Endogen HMSEU
550.68 552.55
555.12 557.08
556.00 558.17
558.56 Endogen
HMKEU 681.22
688.37 694.99
692.33 699.97
706.27 712.37
Endogen HMREU
802.50 811.57
821.41 831.73
841.97 851.76
861.17
Lampiran 13. Lanjutan
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2012 2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
2018
Endogen HMMEU
778.25 774.17
773.82 774.58
775.67 777.01
778.16 Endogen
CKIR 728.44
734.05 741.87
753.30 763.26
768.84 775.93
Endogen CMIR
209.25 217.38
224.39 230.50
236.33 242.19
247.75 Endogen
MKIR 586.59
589.12 594.53
604.26 611.22
611.76 614.26
Endogen MMIR
217.21 226.13
233.76 240.36
246.63 252.94
258.91 Endogen
HMKIR 625.95
659.36 656.42
644.27 648.76
668.49 669.62
Endogen HMMIR
603.41 589.86
578.17 567.87
558.35 549.30
540.34 Endogen
CMMS 226.99
220.39 219.29
222.05 226.61
231.07 234.30
Endogen MMMS
191.86 188.99
193.13 200.22
207.34 212.26
214.46 Endogen
HMMMS 583.64
572.81 560.15
547.53 539.14
531.70 522.29
Endogen HSW
536.09 525.86
518.99 516.41
523.25 522.45
526.32 Endogen
HKW 642.58
679.73 676.24
662.94 669.26
693.45 696.51
Endogen HRW
772.15 776.59
782.78 788.58
795.50 802.80
811.67 Endogen
HMW 826.06
818.54 818.69
821.11 824.22
827.84 831.06
Endogen XSW
35114.78 35525.77
36205.39 36909.20
37362.04 38500.89
39319.21 Endogen
MSW 33205.11
33579.17 34110.79
34779.98 35537.57
36399.74 37326.21
Endogen XKW
12278.78 12695.01
12945.63 13620.12
13697.19 14072.09
14382.42 Endogen
MKW 11018.08
12010.84 11757.47
11979.98 12280.32
12939.98 12976.47
Endogen XRW
4326.58 4358.38
4396.80 4491.73
4597.56 4717.53
4843.22 Endogen
MRW 4121.66
4185.15 4252.22
4307.24 4385.43
4462.27 4561.94
Endogen XMW
4870.74 5005.12
5132.34 5254.91
5374.59 5492.48
5609.25 Endogen
MMW 5006.39
5063.20 5146.83
5236.71 5327.51
5419.26 5508.66
Variabel Hasil Peramalan
2019 2020
2021 2022
2023 2024
2025
Endogen HMMEU
779.55 781.64
784.30 787.03
790.28 793.77
797.39 Endogen
CKIR 784.12
791.10 797.60
807.12 814.95
822.24 829.30
Endogen CMIR
253.14 258.53
263.89 269.02
274.25 279.48
284.70 Endogen
MKIR 617.89
619.52 620.29
625.04 627.12
628.37 629.20
Endogen MMIR
264.67 270.44
276.17 281.64
287.22 292.80
298.36 Endogen
HMKIR 670.14
679.10 687.18
680.88 690.46
697.95 705.12
Endogen HMMIR
531.55 523.27
515.57 508.18
501.24 494.67
488.34 Endogen
CMMS 235.96
236.34 236.08
235.80 235.92
236.55 237.62
Endogen MMMS
214.36 213.06
211.66 210.91
211.08 212.04
213.43 Endogen
HMMMS 513.03
505.36 498.11
490.55 483.63
477.31 471.05
Endogen HSW
531.65 534.81
538.90 542.18
541.38 544.93
546.11 Endogen
HKW 699.02
711.35 722.74
717.66 730.86
741.67 752.13
Endogen HRW
822.68 835.27
848.82 862.97
877.02 890.51
903.53 Endogen
HMW 834.78
839.93 846.28
852.75 860.28
868.31 876.61
Endogen XSW
40213.48 41278.72
42269.09 43325.65
44576.78 45524.44
46687.15 Endogen
MSW 38289.09
39285.22 40296.58
41315.17 42351.80
43382.00 44417.94
Endogen XKW
14857.28 15099.32
15457.00 15788.64
16187.70 16494.56
16846.64 Endogen
MKW 13311.94
13688.72 14031.16
14044.75 14614.78
14903.82 15238.94
Endogen XRW
4988.08 5140.51
5273.46 5394.48
5504.93 5608.75
5701.70 Endogen
MRW 4685.63
4817.12 4947.33
5076.77 5197.76
5309.56 5416.82
Endogen XMW
5725.27 5840.79
5955.96 6070.94
6185.79 6300.54
6415.23 Endogen
MMW 5599.61
5696.08 5797.23
5898.77 6004.58
6112.38 6221.21
Lampiran 14. Program Simulasi Penghapusan Pajak Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia terhadap Hasil Peramalan Model Keterkaitan
Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-2025 Skenario 7
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER;
DATA TESIS1;
SET ANALISIS;
PESI =