Impor 4.39 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun L3LASIR LASMIN DLASMIN RLASMSIN LASMIS DLASMIS RLASMSIS 1980 161.97 45.68 1981 165.45 3.48 1.63 67.36 21.68 1982 172.17 6.73 3.00 76.95 9.58 1983 6.18 189.66 17.49 6.69 79.38 2.43 2.74 1984 5.70 214.10 24.44 7.18 80.02 0.64 0.64 1985 8.54 232.41 18.31 5.46 87.91 7.90 8.15 1986 37.04 241.32 8.91 2.68 87.59 -0.32 -0.30 1987 40.55 272.58 31.26 8.55 100.20 12.61 9.63 1988 118.56 289.91 17.33 4.64 131.44 31.24 21.76 1989 129.90 303.19 13.28 3.63 149.05 17.61 12.21 1990 203.05 317.28 14.09 3.79 208.35 59.30 37.06 1991 196.28 348.51 31.23 7.90 234.04 25.69 8.76 1992 223.83 350.99 2.48 0.64 295.05 61.01 15.90 1993 291.34 348.42 -2.57 -0.67 338.96 43.91 9.48 1994 384.59 351.04 2.61 0.68 403.03 64.07 12.06 1995 439.47 370.99 19.95 4.93 498.86 95.83 15.01 1996 502.33 384.09 13.10 3.07 607.06 108.20 14.82 1997 572.54 398.83 14.74 2.85 684.09 77.03 9.11 1998 658.54 418.15 19.32 3.47 740.42 56.33 5.86 1999 738.89 414.18 -3.98 -0.69 948.66 208.23 19.21 2000 813.18 433.05 18.87 3.21 1219.92 271.26 17.04 2001 890.51 494.45 61.40 10.07 1401.79 181.87 8.61 2002 1041.05 525.89 31.44 4.98 1530.61 128.82 5.64 2003 1166.76 538.22 12.33 1.86 1611.41 80.80 3.36 2004 1561.03 574.22 36.00 5.94 1818.93 207.52 8.16 2005 1808.42 619.83 45.61 8.61 2088.05 269.12 10.24 2006 1854.39 639.77 19.94 2.90 2473.30 385.25 13.93 2007 2220.34 515.50 -124.27 -20.50 2381.86 -91.44 -3.72 2008 2356.90 510.08 -5.42 -0.89 2413.28 31.42 1.22 Tahun LASMIR DLASMIR RLASMSIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR PRODSI 1980 1.22 3.08 4.85 0.63 721.17 1981 2.49 1.28 22.42 3.22 3.94 0.42 800.06 1982 5.54 3.05 35.67 3.48 3.71 0.53 886.82 1983 5.98 0.44 1.19 3.75 3.39 0.58 982.99 1984 6.43 0.45 1.11 3.80 4.11 0.63 1147.19 1985 28.42 21.99 18.55 3.71 3.86 1.51 1243.43 1986 45.17 16.75 12.90 3.78 4.39 1.18 1350.73 1987 48.47 3.30 1.62 3.63 3.52 3.41 1506.06 1988 97.13 48.66 24.79 3.80 3.46 1.61 1713.34 1989 80.37 -16.76 -7.49 3.91 4.01 2.29 1964.95 1990 152.40 72.03 24.72 3.93 3.78 2.47 2412.61 1991 189.70 37.29 9.70 3.90 3.78 2.18 2657.60 1992 209.28 19.58 4.46 4.24 3.65 3.34 3266.25 1993 233.29 24.01 4.78 4.22 4.04 2.49 3421.45 1994 291.49 58.20 10.16 4.48 3.96 2.88 4008.06 1995 368.85 77.36 11.75 4.35 3.74 2.72 4479.67 1996 437.20 68.35 9.25 4.44 3.39 2.59 4898.66 1997 492.20 55.00 6.76 3.98 3.77 2.61 5448.51 1998 540.90 48.70 5.47 3.59 4.17 2.49 5930.42 1999 723.08 182.18 17.50 3.55 3.62 2.14 6455.59 2000 798.10 75.02 6.43 3.37 2.98 2.39 7000.51 2001 1059.88 261.78 16.77 3.07 2.91 2.64 8396.47 2002 1250.91 191.04 10.56 3.06 3.00 2.74 9622.35 2003 1278.95 28.04 1.51 3.25 3.21 2.75 10440.83 2004 1542.83 263.88 11.88 2.82 2.95 2.49 10830.39 2005 1675.19 132.36 5.62 2.34 2.83 2.69 11861.62 2006 1847.46 172.28 6.76 3.62 3.74 3.13 17350.85 2007 1983.97 136.51 4.96 4.11 3.86 3.20 17664.73 2008 2030.03 46.05 1.59 4.16 3.85 3.29 18089.50 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun STOKSI PESI ERI XSI SDSI RSDSI CSI 1980 - 5.00 7753.50 510.50 228.67 30.94 561.00 1981 19.74 10.00 6960.17 206.41 631.65 75.37 573.00 1982 44.39 5.00 6655.91 302.24 632.59 67.67 607.00 1983 42.89 5.00 8185.16 406.88 594.11 59.35 893.00 1984 31.19 10.00 8361.23 246.91 993.28 80.09 636.00 1985 53.02 5.00 8642.31 651.88 618.55 48.69 545.00 1986 32.94 5.00 9431.07 683.87 678.86 49.82 728.00 1987 22.48 5.00 11061.73 698.75 877.32 55.67 805.00 1988 26.96 5.00 10498.88 885.53 839.81 48.68 1280.00 1989 31.33 10.00 10359.47 912.95 1139.00 55.51 1245.00 1990 57.13 5.00 10003.69 1096.73 1470.88 57.29 1330.00 1991 340.00 10.00 9676.70 1435.63 1246.97 46.48 1695.00 1992 124.65 10.00 9366.25 1270.54 2150.71 62.86 1785.00 1993 729.34 10.00 8779.92 1702.75 1797.70 51.36 2195.00 1994 592.94 10.30 8376.07 2116.49 1904.57 47.36 2440.00 1995 412.15 23.20 7965.26 1679.08 2874.59 63.13 2745.00 1996 900.52 15.80 7684.66 1671.96 3369.70 66.84 3010.00 1997 961.37 15.20 8985.36 2967.59 2716.92 47.80 2660.00 1998 779.89 40.00 19525.66 1479.28 4700.14 76.06 2791.00 1999 745.03 30.00 12712.26 3298.99 3358.60 50.45 3141.00 2000 824.30 10.00 13140.63 4110.03 3281.48 44.40 3263.00 2001 751.44 3.00 14358.46 4903.22 4148.25 45.83 3381.00 2002 925.82 3.00 11646.09 6333.71 3791.64 37.45 3606.00 2003 795.82 3.00 10065.09 6386.41 4834.42 43.08 3779.00 2004 865.82 3.00 9873.13 8661.65 3288.74 27.52 4015.00 2005 905.82 3.00 9704.74 10376.19 2538.43 19.66 4255.00 2006 1015.82 1.50 8097.71 12100.92 5951.93 32.97 4501.00 2007 1786.74 10.00 7601.03 12650.00 6187.73 32.85 4665.00 2008 2156.47 5.00 7325.33 14612.00 4500.50 23.55 4875.00 Tahun RCSI RCSDSI HESI RHESIW LHESI HDSI LHDSI 1980 245.33 365.91 0.76 3078.14 1981 2.14 90.71 474.78 0.86 365.91 2714.47 3078.14 1982 5.93 95.96 498.50 1.09 474.78 1750.50 2714.47 1983 47.12 150.31 463.74 0.96 498.50 2496.47 1750.50 1984 -28.78 64.03 467.59 0.71 463.74 4042.08 2496.47 1985 -14.31 88.11 393.31 0.77 467.59 2592.69 4042.08 1986 33.58 107.24 192.79 0.78 393.31 2396.36 2592.69 1987 10.58 91.76 279.57 0.81 192.79 2913.46 2396.36 1988 59.01 152.42 366.01 0.90 279.57 3399.99 2913.46 1989 -2.73 109.31 337.58 0.93 366.01 3275.72 3399.99 1990 6.83 90.42 275.99 0.88 337.58 2479.22 3275.72 1991 27.44 135.93 341.02 0.85 275.99 3245.42 2479.22 1992 5.31 83.00 439.03 0.90 341.02 3358.93 3245.42 1993 22.97 122.10 409.92 0.89 439.03 2919.63 3358.93 1994 11.16 128.11 426.99 0.83 409.92 3811.86 2919.63 1995 12.50 95.49 544.39 0.94 426.99 4479.80 3811.86 1996 9.65 89.33 484.99 0.93 544.39 3760.44 4479.80 1997 -11.63 97.90 457.38 0.89 484.99 4436.60 3760.44 1998 4.92 59.38 533.89 0.75 457.38 7710.12 4436.60 1999 12.54 93.52 415.26 0.78 533.89 4747.97 7710.12 2000 3.88 99.44 337.51 0.85 415.26 5131.75 4747.97 2001 3.62 81.50 353.91 0.90 337.51 4598.35 5131.75 2002 6.65 95.10 403.77 0.82 353.91 5269.57 4598.35 2003 4.80 78.17 441.85 0.83 403.77 5008.49 5269.57 2004 6.25 122.08 455.50 0.89 441.85 5063.03 5008.49 2005 5.98 167.62 348.98 0.83 455.50 4825.47 5063.03 2006 5.78 75.62 322.82 0.80 348.98 4156.28 4825.47 2007 3.64 75.39 467.41 0.81 322.82 5940.26 4156.28 2008 4.50 108.32 550.50 0.88 467.41 5172.37 5940.26 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun PRODSM STOKSM ERM XSM CSM PESM HESM 1980 2692.00 416.00 4.61 2136.24 420.00 15.00 444.85 1981 3351.00 258.00 4.45 2361.13 434.00 15.00 487.33 1982 3179.00 521.00 4.26 2699.99 518.00 15.00 433.61 1983 3324.00 318.00 4.09 2912.88 357.00 15.00 423.33 1984 3817.00 472.00 3.97 2959.44 506.00 15.00 664.24 1985 4772.00 529.00 4.19 3214.90 619.00 15.00 526.46 1986 4560.00 613.00 4.33 4304.42 542.00 15.00 270.54 1987 4852.00 652.00 4.21 4074.97 692.00 15.00 292.80 1988 5636.00 684.00 4.27 4150.53 763.00 15.00 335.98 1989 6412.00 887.00 4.29 4947.87 882.00 15.00 333.83 1990 6031.00 912.00 4.18 5655.69 914.00 15.00 281.70 1991 6222.00 817.00 4.07 5509.08 1020.00 15.00 357.12 1992 7125.00 656.00 3.60 5537.10 1274.00 15.00 427.89 1993 7100.00 1026.00 3.51 5839.16 1227.00 15.00 410.95 1994 7771.00 627.00 3.45 6935.75 1170.00 15.00 448.45 1995 8264.00 646.00 3.18 6862.09 1370.00 15.00 583.19 1996 9005.00 894.00 3.09 7922.98 1458.00 15.00 557.31 1997 8508.00 907.00 3.37 7489.97 1366.00 10.00 500.05 1998 9758.00 719.00 4.46 7290.18 1459.00 10.00 620.79 1999 10491.00 1208.00 4.21 8584.64 1566.00 10.00 506.76 2000 11937.00 1368.00 4.14 8140.72 1675.00 10.00 359.69 2001 11858.00 1216.00 4.08 10002.49 1742.00 10.00 337.37 2002 13180.00 1158.00 4.01 10448.74 2074.00 10.00 462.03 2003 13420.00 955.00 3.97 12079.13 2234.00 10.00 529.74 2004 15194.00 1318.00 3.91 11793.59 2659.00 5.00 457.74 2005 15485.00 1507.00 3.79 13192.54 2926.00 5.00 378.92 2006 15290.00 1881.00 3.54 14202.67 3109.00 5.00 350.04 2007 17567.00 1462.00 3.25 13747.00 2896.00 5.00 295.90 2008 17700.00 1951.00 2.99 15413.00 3251.00 5.00 557.03 Tahun POPA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA XKA XMA 1980 27.95 183.00 427.00 12.00 35.00 84.00 207.00 1981 28.45 312.00 683.00 8.00 51.00 220.00 435.00 1982 28.93 393.00 904.00 18.00 40.00 298.00 656.00 1983 29.34 593.00 812.00 37.00 48.00 513.00 560.00 1984 29.84 580.00 1261.00 39.00 36.00 528.00 885.00 1985 30.35 731.00 1408.00 14.00 93.00 628.00 1065.00 1986 30.74 853.00 919.00 37.00 91.00 780.00 602.00 1987 31.09 1200.00 1033.00 25.00 59.00 980.00 699.00 1988 31.47 930.00 1310.00 156.00 63.00 772.00 925.00 1989 31.86 1125.00 1372.00 220.00 82.00 1188.00 1162.00 1990 32.53 1264.00 1505.00 59.00 74.00 1068.00 1175.00 1991 32.97 1367.00 1405.00 152.00 86.00 892.00 1050.00 1992 33.42 1559.00 1140.00 519.00 91.00 1297.00 775.00 1993 33.92 1551.00 1305.00 658.00 85.00 1418.00 920.00 1994 34.35 1733.00 1990.00 652.00 80.00 1545.00 1556.00 1995 34.78 1758.00 2063.00 689.00 95.00 1694.00 1510.00 1996 35.20 1859.00 2121.00 564.00 168.00 1770.00 1722.00 1997 35.60 2953.00 2118.00 445.00 88.00 2544.00 1594.00 1998 36.01 3118.00 2533.00 637.00 130.00 3085.00 1854.00 1999 36.40 3017.00 2019.00 440.00 241.00 2837.00 1544.00 2000 36.78 3630.00 1227.00 378.00 150.00 3510.00 1004.00 2001 37.16 4165.00 1441.00 211.00 40.00 3639.00 1157.00 2002 37.52 4672.00 1294.00 380.00 54.00 4245.00 898.00 2003 37.87 4724.00 1205.00 418.00 88.00 4446.00 1007.00 2004 38.23 5558.00 1592.00 304.00 31.00 5082.00 1176.00 2005 38.59 6169.00 1551.00 385.00 111.00 5665.00 1221.00 2006 38.97 6917.00 1202.00 487.00 74.00 6514.00 853.00 2007 39.36 6189.00 1576.00 310.00 36.00 5110.00 1219.00 2008 39.75 5975.00 1445.00 363.00 31.00 4855.00 1040.00 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun CKA CMA PEKA PEMA IPA ERA HEKA 1980 103.00 204.00 15.04 17.00 63738.23 2.41 478.75 1981 82.00 259.00 20.14 20.50 46628.02 4.17 495.91 1982 76.00 240.00 21.96 22.00 35214.72 1.83 428.62 1983 78.00 264.00 22.62 16.50 28867.23 0.57 438.41 1984 77.00 319.00 22.65 20.00 28497.21 3.50 617.03 1985 80.00 345.00 18.04 17.00 25581.11 2.97 574.12 1986 85.00 349.00 12.25 10.50 28697.93 4.82 300.24 1987 89.00 330.00 15.01 14.50 30087.89 1.10 317.58 1988 94.00 366.00 27.13 14.00 29270.46 4.37 387.58 1989 98.00 218.00 22.87 17.00 23583.84 1.79 436.30 1990 103.00 318.00 19.83 13.50 22104.71 1.92 451.28 1991 108.00 350.00 14.74 8.00 15158.58 2.28 495.19 1992 123.00 371.00 21.14 12.00 13519.42 1.90 492.83 1993 139.00 390.00 23.44 17.50 13078.70 1.73 530.14 1994 151.00 419.00 27.32 18.50 13394.90 1.66 555.23 1995 189.00 480.00 24.80 16.50 12693.59 1.61 561.73 1996 208.00 482.00 19.99 11.00 13467.73 1.61 527.75 1997 217.00 482.00 20.61 14.00 14570.19 1.60 499.59 1998 230.00 568.00 22.45 29.50 14993.70 1.58 648.87 1999 242.00 567.00 23.73 30.00 14712.10 1.60 509.10 2000 287.00 333.00 20.57 22.50 14895.24 1.62 402.73 2001 357.00 270.00 21.31 16.00 14569.75 1.63 433.76 2002 389.00 362.00 20.48 14.00 10380.87 3.98 502.47 2003 392.00 256.00 20.17 11.00 10078.70 3.32 598.46 2004 395.00 337.00 21.44 14.00 10699.52 3.21 587.41 2005 402.00 367.00 18.18 14.50 10871.85 2.90 463.22 2006 580.00 389.00 20.46 16.00 10872.89 2.75 410.32 2007 1026.00 362.00 17.94 12.50 11056.48 2.56 511.23 2008 1083.00 368.00 20.23 13.50 10994.02 2.40 748.35 Tahun HEMA HDKA HDMA RHEDKA RHEDMA POPB PRODKB 1980 445.30 254.52 157.92 1.88 2.82 121.62 2585.00 1981 571.49 371.33 227.81 1.34 2.51 124.49 2392.00 1982 514.36 451.20 278.73 0.95 1.85 127.42 2408.00 1983 405.22 420.70 245.04 1.04 1.65 130.36 2353.00 1984 639.25 351.81 217.02 1.75 2.95 133.28 2587.00 1985 607.95 354.68 241.32 1.62 2.52 136.15 2319.00 1986 324.73 289.37 206.29 1.04 1.57 138.96 2605.00 1987 319.77 423.54 262.65 0.75 1.22 141.71 2576.00 1988 372.94 257.81 169.27 1.50 2.20 144.39 3050.00 1989 455.09 233.12 166.03 1.87 2.74 147.01 2908.00 1990 482.86 256.36 168.70 1.76 2.86 149.57 2450.00 1991 516.89 309.36 182.31 1.60 2.84 152.06 2761.00 1992 519.62 309.98 193.79 1.59 2.68 154.49 3155.00 1993 563.37 398.82 261.43 1.33 2.15 156.87 3523.00 1994 572.03 329.30 217.92 1.69 2.62 159.27 4061.00 1995 568.09 299.90 192.87 1.87 2.95 161.69 3776.00 1996 556.93 400.69 216.38 1.32 2.57 164.16 3527.00 1997 536.74 410.16 222.70 1.22 2.41 166.65 4083.00 1998 700.52 337.04 245.88 1.93 2.85 169.16 4048.00 1999 590.30 307.91 206.09 1.65 2.86 171.68 4036.00 2000 460.70 344.06 197.51 1.17 2.33 174.17 4370.00 2001 578.11 347.92 235.60 1.25 2.45 176.66 4905.00 2002 661.74 291.58 204.88 1.72 3.23 179.12 5349.00 2003 659.18 324.13 213.60 1.85 3.09 181.54 5579.00 2004 663.39 394.14 266.73 1.49 2.49 183.86 5710.00 2005 599.20 478.20 324.32 0.97 1.85 186.08 5520.00 2006 481.33 434.35 294.58 0.94 1.63 188.16 6050.00 2007 547.21 464.68 315.33 1.10 1.74 190.12 6160.00 2008 618.13 509.69 321.22 1.47 1.92 191.97 6050.00 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun STOKKB XKB CKB PEKB IPB ERB HEKB 1980 262.00 1212.00 1490.00 15.26 25816.34 0.14 465.40 1981 145.00 873.00 1505.00 20.09 20047.11 0.19 490.30 1982 181.00 947.00 1575.00 20.49 21928.79 0.38 556.52 1983 110.00 920.00 1580.00 25.10 19139.39 1.09 707.51 1984 107.00 935.00 1596.00 25.51 16884.27 2.88 573.12 1985 270.00 413.00 2074.00 19.81 18863.04 3.17 484.95 1986 260.00 975.00 1832.00 13.56 20275.78 3.18 349.09 1987 117.00 661.00 1959.00 16.40 15473.40 2.56 418.93 1988 134.00 864.00 2220.00 25.88 21584.45 3.83 416.18 1989 115.00 887.00 2011.00 21.52 22906.95 3.37 455.84 1990 137.00 410.00 2073.00 19.71 22118.22 3.15 528.43 1991 149.00 710.00 2156.00 13.38 21124.04 3.18 722.53 1992 124.00 771.00 2343.00 20.04 20910.53 3.14 765.84 1993 258.00 1556.00 2399.00 22.26 21080.04 3.18 761.51 1994 146.00 1643.00 2502.00 25.28 22246.14 3.28 650.32 1995 224.00 1323.00 2664.00 23.55 14037.82 1.98 559.15 1996 188.00 1077.00 2662.00 20.80 12431.99 1.88 587.03 1997 154.00 1413.00 2795.00 22.85 12047.63 1.89 628.48 1998 226.00 1519.00 2762.00 19.11 11635.22 1.97 563.14 1999 236.00 1134.00 2971.00 21.58 11120.62 2.94 496.94 2000 278.00 1616.00 2937.00 19.64 10907.38 2.77 453.40 2001 182.00 2100.00 2936.00 18.68 10422.30 3.33 587.91 2002 191.00 2405.00 2897.00 16.97 9879.39 3.82 714.52 2003 285.00 2531.00 3054.00 16.39 8769.42 3.51 750.47 2004 293.00 2697.00 3061.00 16.96 8796.60 3.13 604.70 2005 248.00 2315.00 3171.00 15.19 8603.36 2.43 551.48 2006 300.00 2521.00 3550.00 17.67 8799.35 2.09 660.10 2007 341.00 2121.00 3925.00 17.49 9126.65 1.80 839.92 2008 505.00 2235.00 3990.00 19.36 9173.52 1.61 509.73 Tahun HDKB RHEDKB POPUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA 1980 248.15 1.88 227.62 5112.00 0.00 549.00 0.00 1981 344.65 1.42 229.92 4980.00 0.00 787.00 0.00 1982 432.23 1.29 232.13 5462.00 0.00 500.00 0.00 1983 305.42 2.32 234.25 4931.00 0.00 572.00 0.00 1984 335.77 1.71 236.31 5202.00 0.00 327.00 0.00 1985 729.76 0.66 238.42 5269.00 0.00 287.00 0.00 1986 607.45 0.57 240.59 5798.00 0.00 430.00 0.00 1987 548.59 0.76 242.75 5885.00 9.00 782.00 2.00 1988 341.49 1.22 244.97 5324.00 28.00 949.00 15.00 1989 339.33 1.34 247.29 5898.00 63.00 778.00 11.00 1990 386.96 1.37 250.05 6082.00 11.00 592.00 13.00 1991 507.28 1.42 253.39 6507.00 14.00 810.00 20.00 1992 574.14 1.33 256.78 6250.00 24.00 1016.00 34.00 1993 340.17 2.24 260.15 6328.00 186.00 705.00 32.00 1994 277.78 2.34 263.33 7082.00 137.00 500.00 63.00 1995 243.93 2.29 266.46 6913.00 162.00 516.00 25.00 1996 341.38 1.72 269.58 7145.00 155.00 914.00 35.00 1997 350.23 1.79 272.82 8229.00 205.00 690.00 30.00 1998 308.07 1.83 276.02 8202.00 249.00 627.00 52.00 1999 267.09 1.86 279.20 8085.00 300.00 689.00 79.00 2000 298.55 1.52 282.29 8355.00 324.00 904.00 96.00 2001 308.95 1.90 285.18 8572.00 269.00 1255.00 51.00 2002 327.12 2.18 287.94 8360.00 230.00 1070.00 24.00 2003 361.67 2.08 290.62 7748.00 276.00 676.00 35.00 2004 370.52 1.63 293.24 8782.00 363.00 488.00 42.00 2005 299.67 1.84 295.92 9248.00 381.00 771.00 58.00 2006 244.60 2.70 298.70 9294.00 376.00 1365.00 120.00 2007 289.64 2.90 301.62 9329.00 443.00 1399.00 68.00 2008 320.87 1.59 304.42 8457.00 496.00 1126.00 60.00 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun XKUSA XRUSA CKUSA CRUSA MRUSA SEKUSA SERUSA 1980 740.00 0.00 4134.00 6.00 6.00 9.00 16.00 1981 942.00 0.00 4325.00 7.00 7.00 5.00 23.00 1982 918.00 0.00 4472.00 5.00 5.00 9.00 26.00 1983 827.00 0.00 4349.00 5.00 5.00 7.00 22.33 1984 753.00 0.00 4498.00 15.00 15.00 6.00 22.33 1985 570.00 0.00 4560.00 42.00 42.00 7.00 18.00 1986 538.00 0.00 4915.00 82.00 84.00 5.00 12.00 1987 850.00 0.00 4956.00 128.00 132.00 10.00 14.33 1988 754.00 4.00 4803.00 239.00 211.00 6.00 31.67 1989 614.00 3.00 5480.00 249.00 191.00 5.00 27.33 1990 366.00 3.00 5506.00 275.00 274.00 5.00 22.33 1991 746.00 7.00 5555.00 367.00 374.00 5.00 17.67 1992 663.00 7.00 5903.00 415.00 396.00 15.00 23.00 1993 695.00 35.00 5869.00 532.00 412.00 24.00 24.33 1994 1217.00 70.00 5857.00 535.00 430.00 28.00 29.00 1995 450.00 67.00 6108.00 582.00 497.00 27.00 25.33 1996 922.00 134.00 6471.00 528.00 502.00 14.00 19.67 1997 1397.00 158.00 6922.00 529.00 504.00 19.00 18.00 1998 1076.00 123.00 7101.00 602.00 503.00 44.00 22.67 1999 624.00 129.00 7283.00 688.00 534.00 41.00 23.33 2000 636.00 85.00 7401.00 829.00 545.00 30.00 20.00 2001 1143.00 116.00 7635.00 683.00 503.00 23.00 23.67 2002 1027.00 73.00 7748.00 591.00 445.00 19.00 24.33 2003 425.00 126.00 7650.00 698.00 555.00 16.00 24.67 2004 600.00 122.00 7911.00 739.00 514.00 20.00 26.33 2005 523.00 214.00 8147.00 831.00 726.00 20.00 21.00 2006 851.00 286.00 8426.00 854.00 712.00 17.00 24.00 2007 1319.00 158.00 8313.00 1309.00 1016.00 6.00 20.33 2008 907.00 160.00 7484.00 1488.00 1162.00 12.00 22.33 Tahun TMRUSA IPUSA HEKUSA HERUSA HDKUSA HDRUSA HMRUSA 1980 38.17 29031.33 506.34 452.93 534.14 502.40 564.38 1981 38.17 29217.17 492.67 546.68 659.29 608.92 629.85 1982 38.17 28361.78 509.14 678.91 847.03 771.44 648.24 1983 38.17 29586.27 478.51 564.60 692.72 626.34 634.89 1984 33.50 31265.38 603.24 615.75 739.45 685.98 714.53 1985 33.00 32103.98 663.31 714.30 852.07 783.57 685.24 1986 30.02 33030.13 376.96 665.50 798.79 727.52 351.47 1987 30.23 33511.45 372.28 570.42 707.31 624.75 337.68 1988 30.45 34381.04 427.27 436.50 517.64 482.25 431.14 1989 30.66 34924.38 560.55 491.14 570.05 529.75 492.84 1990 30.87 34671.21 698.77 582.41 715.40 622.07 530.18 1991 31.09 33909.10 884.22 658.09 784.24 755.13 583.81 1992 31.30 34378.80 969.76 701.92 831.69 791.12 580.29 1993 31.51 34647.74 733.88 797.41 949.86 866.54 637.69 1994 31.73 35449.22 641.16 573.68 671.54 640.00 613.13 1995 31.94 35662.95 668.11 628.68 746.49 710.66 625.34 1996 32.15 36201.24 628.34 697.53 817.60 798.65 627.42 1997 32.37 37156.11 612.47 659.93 768.63 753.69 575.29 1998 32.60 38168.15 744.87 606.81 697.45 676.37 706.45 1999 30.48 39278.67 671.82 578.66 685.06 662.82 665.00 2000 27.50 39979.85 564.96 612.41 714.26 720.24 552.60 2001 22.83 39780.62 595.46 752.85 847.18 855.96 548.02 2002 23.33 40126.43 615.55 770.23 901.93 836.67 604.49 2003 26.83 40700.87 741.97 830.69 1010.54 923.93 765.45 2004 27.00 41844.15 686.39 806.21 903.92 904.46 755.02 2005 28.67 42708.17 613.68 710.83 798.40 814.00 616.35 2006 21.83 43455.02 520.04 668.36 756.76 750.01 542.36 2007 20.33 43960.58 591.10 602.92 962.46 668.21 664.19 2008 16.67 43030.97 555.18 579.43 675.31 734.56 637.46 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun RHEDKUSA RHEDRUSA POPCD PRODRCD STOKRCD XRCD CRCD 1980 0.95 0.90 24.47 418.00 32.00 198.00 233.00 1981 0.75 0.90 24.79 382.00 19.00 163.00 225.00 1982 0.60 0.88 25.08 366.00 13.00 111.00 247.00 1983 0.69 0.90 25.34 456.00 21.00 177.00 289.00 1984 0.82 0.90 25.58 514.00 11.00 237.00 270.00 1985 0.78 0.91 25.81 498.00 18.00 165.00 309.00 1986 0.47 0.91 26.07 607.00 42.00 306.00 293.00 1987 0.53 0.91 26.40 612.00 50.00 336.00 294.00 1988 0.83 0.91 26.76 533.00 32.00 208.00 328.00 1989 0.98 0.93 27.22 483.00 29.00 150.00 330.00 1990 0.98 0.94 27.64 576.00 32.00 203.00 377.00 1991 1.13 0.87 27.99 732.00 30.00 285.00 439.00 1992 1.17 0.89 28.32 770.00 39.00 368.00 429.00 1993 0.77 0.92 28.65 901.00 15.00 414.00 489.00 1994 0.95 0.90 28.96 1060.00 29.00 424.00 651.00 1995 0.89 0.88 29.26 1154.00 18.00 550.00 627.00 1996 0.77 0.87 29.57 1136.00 29.00 695.00 487.00 1997 0.80 0.88 29.87 1288.00 35.00 894.00 485.00 1998 1.07 0.90 30.12 1292.00 20.00 787.00 506.00 1999 0.98 0.87 30.37 1253.00 28.00 773.00 517.00 2000 0.79 0.85 30.65 1260.00 93.00 739.00 527.00 2001 0.70 0.88 30.97 955.00 143.00 539.00 489.00 2002 0.68 0.92 31.31 920.00 103.00 529.00 431.00 2003 0.73 0.90 31.60 1340.00 90.00 982.00 380.00 2004 0.76 0.89 31.90 1225.00 106.00 971.00 347.00 2005 0.77 0.87 32.21 1380.00 78.00 1093.00 350.00 2006 0.69 0.89 32.53 1440.00 59.00 1265.00 363.00 2007 0.61 0.90 32.88 1675.00 7.00 1278.00 402.00 2008 0.82 0.79 33.26 1775.00 38.00 1350.00 460.00 Tahun SERCD ERCD HERCD HDRCD RHEDRCD POPC IPC 1980 25.00 2.84 483.59 484.79 1.00 987.05 1999.60 1981 36.00 2.59 480.28 495.41 0.97 1000.72 1890.16 1982 35.00 2.41 490.16 455.51 1.08 1016.54 1843.37 1983 26.00 2.27 473.72 469.76 1.01 1030.08 1740.32 1984 34.00 2.29 592.58 600.87 0.99 1043.57 1754.30 1985 27.00 2.32 647.35 669.13 0.97 1058.51 1765.29 1986 16.00 2.27 395.21 365.73 1.08 1075.07 1696.98 1987 19.00 2.07 351.60 511.55 0.69 1093.00 1707.18 1988 22.00 1.85 410.46 419.23 0.98 1110.26 1759.18 1989 29.00 1.69 573.49 640.53 0.90 1127.04 1515.69 1990 22.00 1.59 606.11 626.04 0.97 1143.33 1358.42 1991 11.00 1.48 602.40 762.35 0.79 1158.23 1477.55 1992 9.00 1.54 607.57 738.51 0.82 1171.71 1658.47 1993 11.00 1.61 645.31 653.96 0.99 1185.17 1817.22 1994 9.00 1.71 621.32 613.51 1.01 1198.50 1865.57 1995 6.00 1.68 619.68 669.05 0.93 1211.21 1789.92 1996 8.00 1.64 616.99 652.22 0.95 1223.89 1804.71 1997 9.00 1.64 574.47 590.66 0.97 1236.26 1901.92 1998 15.00 1.74 703.39 722.80 0.97 1247.61 2025.21 1999 19.00 1.71 654.87 668.99 0.98 1257.86 2202.63 2000 15.00 1.67 535.51 570.63 0.94 1267.43 2438.52 2001 9.00 1.69 534.28 557.36 0.96 1276.27 2678.56 2002 9.00 1.68 616.59 603.95 1.02 1284.53 2943.63 2003 6.00 1.46 745.15 744.70 1.00 1292.27 3300.93 2004 8.00 1.33 721.38 768.74 0.94 1299.88 3685.92 2005 9.00 1.21 606.22 667.45 0.91 1307.56 4064.34 2006 15.00 1.11 540.01 585.25 0.92 1314.48 4616.99 2007 19.00 1.03 621.50 649.07 0.96 1321.05 5301.87 2008 15.00 1.00 506.93 572.32 0.89 1327.66 5738.90 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC TMSC 1980 60.28 735.47 819.94 224.70 120.30 0.65 40.00 1981 23.86 772.30 1046.10 194.14 54.35 7.38 40.00 1982 21.27 869.76 1353.65 209.01 48.31 11.02 40.00 1983 23.93 858.53 1438.64 218.56 16.63 16.61 40.00 1984 22.36 797.42 1489.55 215.75 12.16 2.70 40.00 1985 68.47 802.99 1612.46 313.46 35.66 4.40 40.00 1986 213.82 1023.88 1672.27 459.88 178.98 26.17 40.00 1987 273.82 1298.63 1696.67 507.84 414.72 100.71 40.00 1988 425.05 1099.50 1757.21 655.70 142.91 70.38 40.00 1989 767.17 1377.87 2130.65 984.41 425.06 613.16 40.00 1990 1199.12 1173.49 2470.87 1351.75 530.10 592.03 40.00 1991 1084.21 1266.70 2585.63 1223.01 332.97 283.89 40.00 1992 641.62 1242.78 2489.72 820.68 223.85 193.27 40.00 1993 881.45 1207.04 2606.14 978.11 936.93 151.17 30.00 1994 1535.34 1363.30 2882.71 1410.42 1064.20 546.65 30.00 1995 1465.73 1540.87 3074.14 1459.91 1498.34 632.41 30.00 1996 1078.22 1730.58 3461.58 1184.92 1298.31 319.13 30.00 1997 1235.10 2002.51 3409.67 1242.61 1268.01 355.35 30.00 1998 990.32 1983.29 3395.11 1380.38 858.16 295.26 30.00 1999 1258.27 2138.92 3535.57 1598.87 879.07 102.23 30.00 2000 1460.78 2370.20 3932.00 1922.81 328.48 119.52 30.00 2001 1606.29 2424.66 3832.79 2404.96 883.84 74.59 30.00 2002 2302.73 2655.31 4191.77 3138.25 907.56 96.27 30.00 2003 3423.00 2856.54 4116.83 4092.26 1926.82 168.60 30.00 2004 3980.87 3003.61 4354.38 4252.84 2563.60 379.85 20.00 2005 4468.21 3112.80 4499.39 4741.33 1735.00 206.96 20.00 2006 5220.16 3128.62 4644.41 5488.20 1544.26 67.50 20.00 2007 5223.37 3295.54 4789.42 5497.44 2857.28 401.53 20.00 2008 5387.58 3148.21 4934.43 5668.57 2872.83 339.13 20.00 Tahun TMKC TMRC ERC HMSC HMKC HMRC POPID 1980 30.00 35.00 11.93 485.55 717.69 707.85 696.63 1981 30.00 35.00 11.30 525.87 799.58 698.24 712.64 1982 30.00 35.00 10.74 523.94 782.51 613.78 728.89 1983 30.00 35.00 9.31 374.25 733.78 495.22 745.38 1984 30.00 35.00 9.34 565.32 414.86 704.96 762.10 1985 30.00 35.00 10.32 488.89 625.62 724.09 779.05 1986 190.00 35.00 10.65 332.26 402.86 419.85 796.20 1987 190.00 35.00 10.23 377.88 352.76 421.87 813.53 1988 70.00 35.00 9.30 421.52 414.66 406.53 831.05 1989 70.00 35.00 7.62 442.10 479.12 496.10 848.77 1990 130.00 35.00 8.16 378.49 511.59 508.62 866.67 1991 140.00 35.00 8.85 430.42 572.22 545.26 884.76 1992 120.00 25.00 8.91 496.21 552.85 572.54 902.98 1993 120.00 25.00 8.85 491.69 619.12 591.34 921.26 1994 130.00 25.00 11.90 461.63 594.32 569.09 939.51 1995 121.60 25.00 9.88 574.61 636.84 604.11 957.66 1996 121.60 25.00 8.94 517.06 580.10 584.08 975.70 1997 121.60 25.00 8.53 497.65 525.66 530.40 993.61 1998 121.60 25.00 8.39 674.33 667.41 654.63 1011.45 1999 121.60 25.00 8.43 616.38 643.09 694.53 1029.25 2000 121.60 25.00 8.49 420.43 522.08 496.31 1047.04 2001 121.60 25.00 8.48 389.34 501.83 560.83 1064.81 2002 121.60 25.00 8.46 486.03 592.61 640.22 1082.53 2003 41.60 35.00 8.49 522.88 648.28 683.16 1100.15 2004 41.60 35.00 8.44 529.15 672.84 681.92 1117.62 2005 19.90 9.00 8.19 412.18 535.87 593.15 1134.90 2006 19.90 9.00 7.90 379.45 438.77 544.02 1152.05 2007 19.90 9.00 7.48 536.72 564.34 610.96 1169.23 2008 20.33 9.00 6.68 570.40 527.46 563.28 1186.31 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun PRODKID CSID CKID MSID MKID TMSID TMKID 1980 41.00 431.00 708.00 431.00 639.00 38.64 32.15 1981 32.00 410.00 553.00 410.00 460.00 38.55 31.91 1982 44.00 587.00 543.00 597.00 537.00 38.18 29.43 1983 53.00 497.00 763.00 557.00 808.00 37.82 29.60 1984 85.00 720.00 577.00 730.00 398.00 37.52 30.28 1985 157.00 798.00 466.00 798.00 256.00 35.76 31.54 1986 136.00 911.00 445.00 921.00 363.00 34.68 82.67 1987 138.00 1090.00 621.00 1120.00 419.00 31.50 80.46 1988 240.00 931.40 407.00 931.40 383.81 32.59 41.89 1989 279.00 630.00 340.00 600.00 30.00 32.83 42.40 1990 403.00 663.10 445.00 668.10 20.00 32.27 61.75 1991 386.00 170.00 425.00 165.00 65.00 31.70 64.43 1992 482.00 197.60 562.00 207.60 42.00 31.38 57.88 1993 718.00 210.00 711.00 200.00 41.00 28.35 57.83 1994 600.00 465.00 555.00 480.00 60.00 27.14 58.94 1995 720.00 970.00 772.00 970.00 60.00 26.15 56.16 1996 640.00 1315.00 706.00 1300.00 49.00 26.29 55.62 1997 860.00 1530.00 1095.00 1530.00 236.00 25.77 55.12 1998 975.00 2310.00 1805.00 2900.00 833.00 25.18 55.25 1999 792.00 3500.00 1582.00 3300.00 790.00 24.01 54.53 2000 795.00 4100.00 2024.00 4000.00 1400.00 23.52 53.84 2001 835.00 3525.00 2300.00 3400.00 1479.00 20.80 52.57 2002 580.00 4215.00 1900.00 3954.00 1197.00 22.94 52.30 2003 1025.00 3598.00 1885.00 3486.00 906.00 22.00 25.15 2004 880.00 3406.00 2627.00 3525.00 2026.00 18.11 24.30 2005 1075.00 3125.00 2933.00 2899.00 1727.00 17.91 16.42 2006 1180.00 3769.00 2598.00 3800.00 1403.00 17.99 16.11 2007 1399.00 4612.00 2651.00 4532.00 1281.00 17.33 15.25 2008 1571.00 5085.00 2333.00 5200.00 835.00 15.62 14.69 Tahun TMMID IPID ERID HMSID HMKID RHMSIDW HMMID 1980 34.04 2689.10 53.12 528.30 479.42 1.10 472.95 1981 32.93 2698.70 51.71 531.96 438.36 0.97 542.02 1982 31.00 2700.46 52.34 526.35 487.90 1.15 511.92 1983 30.89 2610.09 49.97 400.74 507.78 0.83 444.17 1984 31.12 2558.87 51.91 585.47 640.15 0.89 626.08 1985 32.02 2562.75 53.53 508.00 710.45 1.00 713.08 1986 30.24 2472.22 50.19 271.50 461.45 1.10 417.75 1987 29.52 2383.48 47.42 384.44 409.04 1.11 385.28 1988 30.91 2377.60 46.33 400.91 511.08 0.98 497.33 1989 31.64 2430.69 50.88 347.08 824.22 0.95 862.79 1990 30.71 2396.52 50.37 343.23 923.87 1.09 826.56 1991 29.94 2180.25 57.48 448.23 1123.38 1.11 1242.21 1992 26.90 2042.08 58.60 524.27 857.69 1.08 1057.57 1993 26.74 2018.41 64.82 448.05 845.55 0.98 763.33 1994 25.00 1947.33 60.51 525.69 739.89 1.03 843.51 1995 25.36 1899.37 56.74 598.89 654.06 1.04 651.54 1996 24.76 1875.07 56.89 571.79 655.05 1.10 858.64 1997 25.26 1829.25 54.41 550.89 694.31 1.07 657.35 1998 24.91 1700.91 54.59 733.97 722.20 1.03 731.45 1999 23.70 1732.48 54.43 526.43 572.02 0.98 586.08 2000 23.11 1768.07 54.62 378.00 439.74 0.96 465.61 2001 20.80 1781.28 55.31 419.70 511.34 1.07 615.94 2002 21.83 1783.32 54.58 504.00 573.13 1.02 782.56 2003 24.34 1845.13 50.39 540.28 684.69 1.01 668.17 2004 23.61 1955.14 47.24 529.72 653.42 1.03 585.27 2005 14.83 2077.54 44.10 422.63 535.76 1.00 434.55 2006 14.81 2193.53 42.82 379.47 475.85 0.94 685.07 2007 13.98 2285.92 36.74 342.77 433.15 0.59 627.24 2008 12.44 2279.77 35.68 441.44 510.92 0.70 570.35 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun POPP IPP CSP MSP TMSP ERP HMSP 1980 82.43 3618.54 231.00 226.00 38.35 60.09 528.30 1981 84.87 3670.55 266.00 273.00 38.12 53.71 531.96 1982 87.38 3805.23 337.00 349.00 37.28 60.69 526.35 1983 89.89 3860.30 332.00 328.00 36.75 63.18 400.74 1984 92.40 3859.00 456.00 466.00 36.76 63.77 628.54 1985 94.93 3942.29 562.00 692.00 35.40 68.47 636.37 1986 97.50 3998.84 528.00 378.00 34.63 69.14 382.14 1987 100.09 4076.26 450.00 455.00 32.07 69.03 287.56 1988 102.71 4062.93 482.00 484.00 32.59 65.62 370.87 1989 105.35 4000.76 577.00 633.00 32.75 69.43 450.57 1990 108.40 3868.13 800.00 777.00 31.73 67.28 352.32 1991 110.80 3696.37 900.00 935.00 31.12 65.99 399.71 1992 114.08 3619.18 899.00 884.00 30.81 63.50 447.38 1993 117.02 3320.25 1100.00 1060.00 29.05 64.71 591.18 1994 119.99 3052.35 1200.00 1210.00 28.11 62.62 401.88 1995 122.99 2840.32 965.00 1015.00 27.28 57.71 675.25 1996 126.00 2683.67 1060.00 1070.00 27.09 59.61 741.31 1997 129.04 2418.73 1114.00 1124.00 26.68 60.99 547.46 1998 132.09 2306.84 1051.00 981.00 25.96 62.91 715.09 1999 135.13 2277.52 1004.00 1039.00 24.46 66.38 824.05 2000 137.53 2283.80 1295.00 1295.00 23.87 68.93 434.38 2001 140.36 2259.83 1193.00 1174.00 21.87 77.14 376.96 2002 143.17 2249.27 1313.00 1317.00 22.62 72.03 424.95 2003 146.75 2284.03 1291.00 1271.00 21.09 67.68 542.60 2004 149.65 2271.92 1560.00 1565.00 18.64 63.54 516.82 2005 152.53 2231.04 1708.00 1703.00 18.38 59.51 457.92 2006 155.37 2224.44 2218.00 2218.00 18.23 55.85 361.64 2007 158.17 2206.65 1840.00 1840.00 16.75 52.31 395.87 2008 160.97 1878.64 2100.00 2100.00 15.42 50.41 435.17 Tahun RHMSPW POPEU IPEU CSEU CKEU CREU CMEU 1980 1.10 402.52 20572.62 525.38 1428.20 458.51 938.72 1981 0.97 403.50 19968.99 616.67 1353.65 531.87 967.78 1982 1.15 404.37 22316.17 493.76 1692.13 635.32 1041.43 1983 0.83 404.98 21903.18 582.34 1219.45 651.28 973.54 1984 0.95 405.74 20694.49 471.26 1200.66 735.88 1092.04 1985 1.25 406.64 20544.49 485.71 1173.15 726.37 1113.54 1986 1.55 407.43 21676.86 808.55 1175.39 735.55 1159.06 1987 0.83 408.53 23198.27 760.89 1230.86 820.82 1291.01 1988 0.91 409.96 25288.89 956.93 1381.14 887.43 1393.02 1989 1.24 412.42 25462.03 1002.51 1135.00 945.43 1322.67 1990 1.12 414.27 25061.65 1161.53 1333.28 772.27 1457.30 1991 0.99 415.98 24500.24 1382.13 1665.29 891.47 1541.35 1992 0.92 417.07 24215.76 1488.24 1510.09 1240.19 1577.96 1993 1.29 417.81 24464.34 1292.51 1555.70 960.53 1605.70 1994 0.78 418.53 25069.69 1499.84 1655.01 896.83 1552.47 1995 1.17 419.13 25079.54 1248.68 1757.27 1072.33 1639.18 1996 1.42 419.62 25292.53 1418.55 1650.41 1160.10 1655.83 1997 1.07 419.97 25651.11 1369.85 1420.08 1378.44 1753.35 1998 1.01 420.74 25856.38 1712.20 1472.50 1507.30 1695.14 1999 1.54 421.71 26689.34 1657.17 1423.26 1667.00 1813.64 2000 1.10 422.59 27138.65 2078.72 1507.73 2248.90 1881.54 2001 0.96 423.96 27346.07 2668.28 1762.87 2354.14 1908.09 2002 0.86 425.17 27238.48 2721.52 1680.27 2100.65 1977.67 2003 1.02 426.46 26814.75 2709.81 1834.19 2490.73 1957.36 2004 1.01 428.47 26261.79 2543.58 1642.35 2416.18 2006.73 2005 1.09 430.08 26900.00 2643.14 1636.48 2492.57 2045.17 2006 0.90 432.01 27494.57 2749.59 1654.15 2368.97 2068.71 2007 0.69 434.01 28644.51 2847.36 1645.91 2453.66 2099.70 2008 0.69 435.38 30330.86 2950.56 1637.68 2476.19 2130.69 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun MSEU MKEU MREU MMEU LMSEU TMSEU TMKEU 1980 916.05 654.21 239.33 382.47 27.29 26.63 1981 775.85 617.33 295.60 353.41 916.05 27.29 24.88 1982 815.88 681.63 385.82 525.32 775.85 24.00 22.75 1983 962.92 628.11 448.57 419.95 815.88 23.21 21.50 1984 798.47 643.21 412.88 569.27 962.92 26.29 24.63 1985 916.15 649.46 529.91 582.70 798.47 26.86 26.13 1986 1320.16 599.95 552.29 605.41 916.15 28.00 27.25 1987 1246.17 653.12 538.30 527.68 1320.16 26.00 25.25 1988 1314.63 634.51 548.72 571.61 1246.17 24.29 23.75 1989 1480.80 623.97 538.16 639.25 1314.63 25.14 26.13 1990 1749.05 634.00 453.48 819.55 1480.80 21.57 24.88 1991 2039.64 686.99 592.18 766.27 1749.05 21.21 24.25 1992 2035.36 640.93 679.96 727.02 2039.64 21.36 24.13 1993 2102.42 513.07 709.10 821.03 2035.36 21.64 25.88 1994 2400.27 519.68 799.47 823.57 2102.42 21.43 24.75 1995 2198.20 482.63 796.37 785.12 2400.27 22.64 24.75 1996 2311.92 472.90 999.41 777.07 2198.20 21.36 25.25 1997 2400.51 556.52 1294.74 978.16 2311.92 23.00 26.38 1998 2739.70 647.98 1254.56 1092.47 2400.51 20.84 25.41 1999 2821.07 600.75 1393.23 1023.41 2739.70 20.50 25.46 2000 3022.06 600.17 1393.84 915.90 2821.07 20.17 25.50 2001 3688.46 660.23 1623.31 1032.44 3022.06 19.83 25.55 2002 3812.22 757.61 1546.05 1556.38 3688.46 19.49 25.60 2003 4109.96 765.74 1276.76 1535.10 3812.22 19.16 25.65 2004 4753.17 743.70 1379.15 1515.77 4109.96 18.82 25.70 2005 5531.79 925.23 1885.63 1966.25 4753.17 18.49 25.75 2006 5946.33 1681.65 2951.97 2430.03 5531.79 18.15 25.79 2007 6187.36 1799.84 2724.94 2438.39 5946.33 17.81 25.84 2008 6191.31 1808.55 2919.48 2384.55 6187.36 17.48 25.89 Tahun TMREU TMMEU EREU HMSEU HMKEU HMREU HMMEU 1980 27.50 27.33 3.09 523.32 534.19 528.47 594.98 1981 26.00 26.83 2.86 571.58 542.73 516.05 697.01 1982 23.50 23.25 2.69 520.47 506.05 483.53 641.39 1983 23.10 22.50 2.33 447.08 502.40 478.96 556.77 1984 26.10 26.00 2.03 654.99 661.99 650.64 747.89 1985 27.10 27.00 1.93 628.24 678.79 650.72 757.35 1986 27.90 27.75 2.00 355.62 441.80 418.63 492.72 1987 25.90 25.42 1.84 369.40 398.46 378.74 464.93 1988 24.00 23.50 1.68 440.54 451.70 426.57 523.00 1989 25.80 25.33 1.66 457.58 512.00 495.45 622.47 1990 24.70 23.00 1.44 426.11 552.63 558.59 659.04 1991 23.60 22.42 1.48 449.71 594.73 571.16 705.99 1992 23.40 22.83 1.52 530.93 621.69 634.59 679.23 1993 24.40 23.92 1.24 523.34 588.40 624.15 672.93 1994 24.20 23.58 1.01 483.88 616.78 625.87 696.23 1995 24.00 23.00 0.91 633.02 650.39 643.33 713.71 1996 23.50 22.08 1.03 575.76 635.18 632.27 694.29 1997 24.50 23.83 0.90 538.45 548.94 570.10 605.26 1998 23.64 22.44 0.83 688.62 721.69 766.62 789.91 1999 23.50 22.23 1.07 651.57 656.46 685.48 790.24 2000 23.36 22.02 1.21 478.55 503.63 549.36 613.54 2001 23.22 21.81 1.22 448.92 541.96 593.77 707.46 2002 23.08 21.61 1.13 528.30 576.22 662.08 802.56 2003 22.94 21.40 0.93 593.03 728.77 834.45 817.30 2004 22.81 21.19 0.82 601.18 735.03 843.27 808.19 2005 22.67 20.98 0.80 498.04 605.91 739.05 755.33 2006 22.53 20.77 0.78 448.09 532.95 678.89 600.36 2007 22.39 20.56 0.70 547.85 617.34 696.25 690.27 2008 22.25 20.35 0.63 561.92 570.53 646.69 653.09 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun RHMKEUW RHMREUW RHMMEUW RHMSEUHCOW POPIR PRODKIR PRODMIR 1980 1.03 1.09 1.09 9.23 38.35 8.00 7.54 1981 1.10 1.14 1.12 10.11 40.85 10.00 9.77 1982 1.09 1.07 1.17 9.14 42.48 17.40 7.31 1983 0.99 1.14 1.01 8.15 44.18 21.70 7.53 1984 1.02 1.03 1.09 11.92 45.96 18.30 6.86 1985 1.17 1.09 1.24 11.52 47.82 26.30 10.24 1986 1.37 1.29 1.40 6.26 49.44 16.20 8.43 1987 1.28 1.26 1.37 6.57 50.66 9.50 8.13 1988 1.15 1.05 1.29 7.64 51.91 15.50 9.18 1989 1.30 1.12 1.42 7.80 53.19 14.10 6.84 1990 1.32 1.22 1.44 7.49 54.50 15.00 21.56 1991 1.10 1.16 1.25 7.41 55.84 9.70 8.62 1992 1.18 1.23 1.22 9.21 61.56 17.00 15.97 1993 1.01 1.10 1.03 8.92 61.00 18.00 17.22 1994 1.03 1.05 1.13 8.41 61.89 18.70 21.53 1995 1.13 1.14 1.12 11.08 64.10 20.90 12.02 1996 1.17 1.16 1.23 9.92 62.51 22.80 16.48 1997 1.03 1.07 1.11 9.44 60.93 17.50 17.76 1998 1.09 1.15 1.02 11.73 61.84 41.30 20.08 1999 1.25 1.32 1.27 11.37 62.51 70.90 16.99 2000 1.17 1.24 1.23 8.34 63.66 104.60 15.03 2001 1.12 1.08 1.07 7.89 64.83 104.90 14.98 2002 1.00 1.08 1.06 9.44 65.54 112.60 17.80 2003 1.09 1.16 1.15 10.34 66.48 119.80 19.00 2004 1.09 1.13 1.08 10.25 67.48 159.10 17.90 2005 1.11 1.10 1.12 8.80 68.47 202.70 18.20 2006 1.05 1.01 1.08 8.18 70.47 192.10 18.30 2007 0.95 0.97 0.91 10.12 71.66 185.30 18.30 2008 0.69 0.74 0.66 10.21 72.87 209.50 18.60 Tahun CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR TMKIR TMMIR IPIR 1980 343.00 5.00 322.00 5.00 36.00 47.17 264324.06 1981 306.00 65.00 285.00 65.00 35.59 46.16 235754.29 1982 367.00 25.00 346.00 25.00 33.49 45.77 231848.26 1983 347.00 60.00 331.00 60.00 33.39 45.39 213466.78 1984 405.00 75.00 382.00 75.00 33.66 43.62 195476.14 1985 339.00 57.00 325.00 57.00 34.37 39.99 193194.32 1986 475.00 14.00 461.00 14.00 72.43 39.34 146200.96 1987 302.00 13.00 293.00 13.00 70.83 35.32 111702.28 1988 390.00 39.00 375.00 39.00 41.06 40.29 75311.16 1989 566.00 175.00 552.00 175.00 42.05 40.71 66207.08 1990 431.00 50.00 417.00 50.00 56.32 30.57 74580.35 1991 505.00 65.00 494.00 65.00 58.10 32.94 72453.37 1992 449.00 51.00 433.00 51.00 52.83 32.45 55751.31 1993 516.00 385.00 494.00 500.00 52.55 34.23 46698.67 1994 392.00 380.00 500.00 430.00 53.75 34.42 35627.59 1995 362.00 410.00 500.00 430.00 51.51 33.80 24087.22 1996 361.00 190.00 401.00 200.00 50.78 31.48 20907.82 1997 627.00 196.00 700.00 175.00 50.66 34.20 19231.11 1998 812.00 210.00 960.00 200.00 50.33 33.01 16702.31 1999 624.00 142.00 604.00 150.00 48.54 29.80 14233.59 2000 674.00 78.00 729.00 94.00 46.70 28.16 13115.86 2001 794.00 60.00 835.00 64.00 47.46 27.67 12270.56 2002 816.00 22.00 959.00 10.00 46.01 27.87 11591.02 2003 813.00 44.00 735.00 32.00 24.22 22.88 10741.75 2004 804.00 105.00 741.00 93.00 23.12 21.74 9944.87 2005 775.00 226.00 600.00 213.00 18.03 18.28 9268.02 2006 725.00 34.00 606.00 21.00 17.04 18.18 8791.73 2007 685.00 193.00 545.00 180.00 14.48 14.52 8181.16 2008 694.00 188.00 580.00 168.00 14.66 13.94 6709.12 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun ERIR HMKIR HMMIR RHMKIRW RHMMIRW POPMS LPOPMS 1980 6282.89 600.24 553.45 1.16 1.01 40.55 1981 5611.09 651.12 579.01 1.32 0.93 41.71 40.55 1982 5045.86 554.89 686.64 1.19 1.25 42.85 41.71 1983 4352.91 534.81 620.11 1.05 1.12 44.02 42.85 1984 4032.32 697.41 662.54 1.07 0.96 45.24 44.02 1985 3906.62 700.12 475.63 1.20 0.78 46.55 45.24 1986 2853.38 306.63 439.23 0.95 1.25 47.75 46.55 1987 2013.61 450.91 682.07 1.45 2.01 48.80 47.75 1988 1504.12 496.68 661.67 1.26 1.64 49.80 48.80 1989 1288.99 398.51 867.80 1.01 1.98 50.90 49.80 1990 1132.47 495.85 607.40 1.19 1.33 51.36 50.90 1991 958.47 579.94 718.69 1.08 1.28 52.42 51.36 1992 739.81 691.90 761.81 1.31 1.37 53.51 52.42 1993 11804.92 737.75 765.27 1.27 1.17 54.62 53.51 1994 12387.96 597.20 686.23 1.00 1.11 55.75 54.62 1995 8273.72 736.13 672.43 1.28 1.05 56.90 55.75 1996 6427.27 784.56 602.57 1.45 1.07 58.20 56.90 1997 5483.80 559.82 721.69 1.05 1.32 59.40 58.20 1998 4649.75 771.53 702.83 1.16 0.91 60.70 59.40 1999 3874.88 601.59 721.46 1.15 1.16 62.00 60.70 2000 3407.06 487.67 553.14 1.13 1.11 63.30 62.00 2001 3043.00 501.48 592.23 1.03 0.89 64.70 63.30 2002 10472.48 515.83 738.63 0.89 0.98 66.00 64.70 2003 10666.60 670.33 759.26 1.01 1.06 67.30 66.00 2004 9771.11 667.49 730.13 0.99 0.98 68.60 67.30 2005 8963.96 528.44 694.82 0.97 1.03 70.00 68.60 2006 8192.73 474.70 520.63 0.94 0.94 71.30 70.00 2007 7073.62 592.79 561.33 0.91 0.74 73.60 71.30 2008 5723.59 564.94 568.90 0.68 0.57 75.20 73.60 Tahun PRODMMS CMMS MMMS LMMMS TMMMS IPMS ERMS 1980 1.94 47.00 47.00 39.56 15682.40 8.49 1981 1.81 27.00 27.00 47.00 38.21 15780.12 7.86 1982 3.14 85.00 85.00 27.00 37.70 15995.52 7.19 1983 2.34 120.00 120.00 85.00 37.18 15194.64 6.20 1984 3.11 230.00 230.00 120.00 34.83 15061.89 5.63 1985 3.33 240.00 240.00 230.00 36.65 14311.71 4.98 1986 3.75 265.00 265.00 240.00 35.78 12736.51 4.24 1987 2.56 275.00 275.00 265.00 30.43 11765.54 3.73 1988 6.71 222.00 220.00 275.00 30.39 9822.98 2.96 1989 3.80 227.00 225.00 220.00 30.95 8070.23 3.65 1990 6.10 284.00 270.00 225.00 30.76 7279.66 5.68 1991 16.60 193.00 186.00 270.00 30.58 6394.04 8.03 1992 11.89 209.00 200.00 186.00 29.94 5736.99 7.18 1993 11.00 194.00 180.00 200.00 28.97 5445.74 6.68 1994 16.20 295.00 280.00 180.00 29.23 5425.43 6.42 1995 22.20 153.00 138.00 280.00 28.40 5332.62 6.04 1996 18.20 243.00 230.00 138.00 25.31 5144.05 5.57 1997 11.40 249.00 240.00 230.00 28.93 5215.15 5.35 1998 7.60 217.00 221.00 240.00 27.35 5473.81 5.27 1999 7.50 134.00 133.00 221.00 23.07 5718.54 5.25 2000 8.40 90.00 79.00 133.00 20.88 5924.34 5.59 2001 7.60 111.00 110.00 79.00 20.22 6073.34 6.73 2002 8.00 88.00 88.00 110.00 20.49 5868.82 6.34 2003 6.80 158.00 158.00 88.00 17.17 5303.81 7.58 2004 7.50 194.00 194.00 158.00 15.66 4752.08 6.45 2005 9.10 235.00 234.00 194.00 17.74 4762.12 5.73 2006 7.80 314.00 313.00 234.00 17.61 4819.18 5.33 2007 8.40 215.00 214.00 313.00 12.72 4676.95 4.68 2008 7.20 334.00 333.00 214.00 11.96 4136.33 3.86 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun HMMMS RHMMMSW PRODKC PRODRC XSRW XSW MSRW 1980 601.84 1.10 610.00 804.30 969.90 3616.64 1613.84 1981 672.92 1.08 715.00 1016.05 660.91 3228.45 1570.58 1982 665.53 1.21 820.20 1330.00 773.85 3776.08 1717.17 1983 499.90 0.91 841.80 1417.50 696.77 4016.52 1851.88 1984 660.90 0.96 791.90 1470.00 1111.23 4317.58 1691.95 1985 728.46 1.19 768.00 1575.00 1354.69 5221.48 2155.39 1986 857.18 2.44 846.00 1610.00 1253.75 6242.04 2925.77 1987 432.41 1.28 920.00 1645.00 1006.89 5780.61 2475.37 1988 365.54 0.90 932.00 1525.30 953.00 5989.06 2353.73 1989 690.48 1.57 958.20 1498.00 1187.34 7048.16 2949.45 1990 714.83 1.57 920.30 2135.00 1319.44 8071.86 3301.12 1991 989.20 1.76 942.00 2065.00 1268.15 8212.86 3367.82 1992 968.57 1.74 895.00 2275.00 1374.65 8182.29 3774.95 1993 556.25 0.85 1304.00 2415.00 1529.87 9071.77 3997.54 1994 517.44 0.84 1336.80 2397.50 1755.02 10807.27 4212.54 1995 618.28 0.97 1263.00 2730.00 1675.50 10216.67 3976.07 1996 609.75 1.08 1570.00 2940.00 1816.25 11411.19 3833.15 1997 530.03 0.97 1923.00 2905.00 1916.14 12373.70 3609.41 1998 714.53 0.93 2242.00 2870.00 1685.27 10454.73 2355.83 1999 714.39 1.15 2333.40 3307.50 1849.85 13733.48 3176.95 2000 552.65 1.11 3204.10 3570.00 1911.19 14161.94 3117.71 2001 623.73 0.94 3772.40 3675.00 2157.56 17063.27 4679.72 2002 748.22 0.99 4122.60 4162.60 2034.54 18816.99 5208.92 2003 661.83 0.93 4923.60 3814.80 2621.95 21087.49 7504.29 2004 673.51 0.90 5181.70 4252.40 3096.68 23551.91 9212.07 2005 621.21 0.92 5893.80 4645.10 3195.79 26764.52 9914.09 2006 490.78 0.88 6345.00 4752.50 3647.60 29951.19 12092.98 2007 544.41 0.72 6552.30 4348.10 3445.00 29842.00 11432.20 2008 553.82 0.56 6750.00 4250.00 3724.00 33749.00 14748.11 Tahun MSW XKRW XKW MKRW MKW XRRW XRW 1980 3411.59 1160.07 3196.07 1479.65 3215.16 491.35 689.35 1981 3223.57 1454.35 3489.35 1829.89 3246.57 685.48 848.48 1982 3688.06 1242.54 3405.54 2164.43 3777.36 704.95 815.95 1983 3918.36 1392.90 3652.90 1882.06 3665.80 654.97 831.97 1984 3902.16 1824.85 4040.85 2584.34 4019.71 845.33 1082.33 1985 4875.00 1892.20 3503.20 2173.96 3440.08 1161.27 1326.27 1986 6004.81 700.62 2993.62 1377.59 2980.52 1097.48 1403.48 1987 5804.38 1523.74 4014.74 2160.20 3940.04 1328.77 1664.77 1988 5739.45 1526.82 3916.82 2283.11 3819.33 1737.75 1949.75 1989 6647.65 1082.12 3771.12 2441.73 4072.76 1805.87 1958.87 1990 7847.02 1894.89 3738.89 2016.31 3617.42 1763.38 1969.38 1991 7730.47 1270.01 3618.01 1851.38 3430.34 1812.43 2104.43 1992 7722.59 1526.91 4257.91 2606.79 3946.57 1570.31 1945.31 1993 8338.06 369.28 4038.28 2137.69 4122.69 1614.26 2063.26 1994 9713.23 962.41 5367.41 2780.69 4924.57 2133.16 2627.16 1995 9619.17 2786.88 6253.88 3156.40 5697.36 1980.17 2597.17 1996 9699.99 1254.91 5023.91 3343.70 5564.91 1817.93 2646.93 1997 9906.53 1540.84 6894.84 3809.95 6570.48 1646.87 2698.87 1998 10356.91 2240.35 7920.35 3539.97 6839.11 2144.04 3054.04 1999 11935.89 3478.60 8073.60 4732.27 7606.09 2060.76 2962.76 2000 13357.58 1443.88 7205.88 3836.00 6893.64 1811.46 2635.46 2001 15347.14 1643.00 8525.00 4317.90 8175.97 1914.38 2569.38 2002 17430.38 1581.64 9258.64 5019.06 8840.23 2131.38 2733.38 2003 20463.51 2850.95 10252.95 5056.04 9389.59 1160.31 2268.31 2004 23308.09 1399.39 9778.39 3599.77 9674.07 1484.32 2577.32 2005 24789.21 2147.34 10650.34 5124.22 10111.45 1872.19 3179.19 2006 29545.51 1599.96 11485.96 5165.91 10400.82 2546.70 4097.70 2007 29489.00 3850.89 12400.89 5415.82 11898.94 2777.09 4213.09 2008 33908.00 2113.00 10110.00 4589.62 10686.00 2726.87 4236.87 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun MRRW MRW XMRW XMW MMRW MMW 1980 465.17 711.15 906.14 1113.14 519.64 954.11 1981 488.19 798.17 666.84 1101.84 653.73 1099.14 1982 413.23 815.07 595.25 1251.25 442.77 1078.09 1983 450.28 920.46 1079.42 1639.42 739.45 1393.40 1984 525.52 956.10 777.57 1662.57 802.35 1676.62 1985 718.03 1294.34 793.81 1858.81 956.25 1835.95 1986 758.49 1420.94 1513.25 2115.25 1088.73 1973.14 1987 907.62 1678.63 1298.70 1997.70 1109.27 2003.95 1988 785.48 1615.58 1436.13 2361.13 1431.55 2262.16 1989 791.71 2134.03 1200.77 2362.77 1434.25 2473.50 1990 766.02 2085.53 1475.77 2650.77 1450.73 2590.28 1991 823.86 2073.94 1446.38 2496.38 1517.35 2534.62 1992 640.87 1910.10 1879.71 2654.71 1685.47 2663.49 1993 529.27 1801.55 1286.26 2206.26 695.00 2196.03 1994 585.59 2361.71 948.94 2504.94 985.12 2588.69 1995 571.29 2497.07 2160.14 3670.14 2102.85 3535.97 1996 570.02 2390.55 1337.92 3059.92 1779.46 3406.53 1997 475.33 2629.41 2695.68 4289.68 2417.65 3935.81 1998 771.67 2824.48 1656.54 3510.54 1768.77 3832.25 1999 677.75 2707.21 2251.79 3795.79 1783.84 3660.25 2000 517.86 2576.22 2795.95 3799.95 2022.13 3566.03 2001 319.67 2520.57 1907.56 3064.56 1844.64 3054.08 2002 484.32 2571.64 2093.07 2991.07 1231.75 2987.13 2003 178.27 2178.63 2387.60 3394.60 1763.12 3567.21 2004 415.78 2688.78 2338.22 3514.22 1782.21 3587.98 2005 186.10 3004.69 2785.95 4006.95 1427.98 3954.22 2006 337.33 4068.80 4490.87 5343.87 2271.04 5187.07 2007 124.11 4266.57 3510.70 4729.70 1647.26 4652.65 2008 348.36 4768.97 2850.00 3890.00 935.45 3890.00 Tahun HSW HKW HRW HMW HCOW 1980 479.38 517.20 485.14 547.63 56.72 1981 549.09 495.05 453.55 624.36 56.55 1982 458.33 465.54 451.12 550.00 56.92 1983 482.02 507.03 419.48 551.29 54.86 1984 660.61 649.74 630.71 687.80 54.93 1985 509.17 581.33 595.56 611.82 54.55 1986 246.50 322.28 324.20 351.05 56.85 1987 346.19 310.86 299.76 339.12 56.23 1988 408.02 393.09 406.20 404.29 57.68 1989 363.55 393.68 441.46 439.38 58.63 1990 315.11 417.25 458.54 456.36 56.86 1991 402.81 539.46 491.93 563.23 60.71 1992 485.90 529.06 517.96 557.42 57.65 1993 458.44 582.14 565.16 654.91 58.64 1994 512.39 597.78 597.78 617.19 57.57 1995 578.48 575.71 565.58 638.35 57.13 1996 521.31 541.93 544.87 565.49 58.02 1997 512.79 530.64 530.64 545.66 57.06 1998 710.80 663.13 665.25 771.18 58.70 1999 535.66 524.60 519.69 622.89 57.31 2000 394.83 430.49 441.95 499.27 57.38 2001 392.32 485.59 551.44 663.92 56.86 2002 495.15 576.40 615.76 754.15 55.95 2003 532.94 666.48 721.82 713.40 57.37 2004 514.19 672.48 747.81 746.72 58.62 2005 422.00 545.00 669.00 677.00 56.59 2006 403.72 505.92 670.61 555.75 54.80 2007 577.83 652.65 718.59 757.11 54.16 2008 626.39 830.34 877.20 989.41 55.02 Lampiran 6. Program Estimasi Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA TESIS; SET ANALISIS; PROC SYSLIN 2 SLS DATA =TESIS OUTEST =HASIL1; ENDOGENOUS HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA ; INSTRUMENTS TREN PRODCOW POPW LHSW LHRW LHMW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI RHESIW ERI PESI LPOPI LHCPI STOKSI LYIESIN LYIESIS LHESI LHDSI L3LASIN L3LASIS L3LASIR DLASMIR ERM PRODSM STOKSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB LHEKB LHDKB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA LHEKA LHDKA LCMA LXKA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA LXKUSA PRODRCD SERCD LHERCD LHDRCD LXRCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS LPOPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU LMSEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC LMRC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID POPID LCSID TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR RCCOW RHESIW RLASMSIR RHEDKB RHEDMA RHEDKA RHEDKUSA RHEDRCD RHDRCDW RHMSPW RHMKEUW RHMREUW RHMMEUW RHMSEUHCOW RHMSIDW RHMKIRW RHMMIRW RHMMMSW ; HARGA_SW : MODEL HSW = XSW MSW LHSW DW ; HARGA_KW : MODEL HKW = XKW MKW LHKW DW ; HARGA_RW : MODEL HRW = XRW MRW LHRW DW ; HARGA_MW : MODEL HMW = XMW MMW DW ; LSM_PBN : MODEL LASMIN = LHESI RHCPI L3LASIN DW NOINT ; LSM_PBS : MODEL LASMIS = LHESI RHCPI USPI L3LASIS DW ; LSM_PR : MODEL LASMIR = LHDSI USPI LLASIR DW ; YIELD_PBN : MODEL YIESIN = HESI RHCPI DLASMIN LYIESIN DW NOINT ; YIELD_PBS : MODEL YIESIS = HESI DLASMIS LYIESIS DW NOINT ; YIELD_PR : MODEL YIESIR = HDSI LHDSI RHCPI DLASMIR LYIESIR DW NOINT ; HARGA_XSI : MODEL HESI = HSW ERI RXSI LHESI DW NOINT ; HARGA_DSI : MODEL HDSI = HESI ERI RTSDSI LHDSI DW NOINT DISAP_SI : MODEL CSI = HDSI RHCOW POPI LCSI DW ; EKSPOR_SI : MODEL XSI = HESI RHDSI ERI PESI SXSI DW NOINT ; HARGA_XSM : MODEL HESM = HSW ERM XSM LHESM DW ; EKSPOR_SM : MODEL XSM = HESM PESM STOKSM PRODSM LXSM DW NOINT ; Lampiran 6. Lanjutan HARGA_XKB : MODEL HEKB = HKW ERB PEKB LHEKB DW ; HARGA_DKB : MODEL HDKB = HEKB SDKB CKB DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_KB : MODEL CKB = HDKB RRHDKBRHCOW POPB LCKB DW ; EKSPOR_KB : MODEL XKB = HEKB HDKB ERB PRODKB LXKB DW ; HARGA_DKA : MODEL HDKA = HEKA RSDCKA LHDKA DW ; HARGA_XKA : MODEL HEKA = HKW ERA XKA LHEKA DW ; DISAPPR_KA : MODEL CKA = RHDKA RHCOW POPA DW ; EKSPOR_KA : MODEL XKA = HEKA HDKA ERA PRODKA DW NOINT ; HARGA_XMA : MODEL HEMA = HMW LHEMA DW ; HARGA_DMA : MODEL HDMA = HEMA SDMA CMA LHDMA DW NOINT ; EKSPOR_MA : MODEL XMA = HEMA HDMA PEMA PRODMA LXMA DW ; DISAPPR_MA : MODEL CMA = RHDMKA HCOW POPA DW NOINT ; HARGA_XKUSA : MODEL HEKUSA = HKW SEKUSA DW ; HARGA_DKUSA : MODEL HDKUSA = HEKUSA SDKUSA CKUSA DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_KUSA: MODEL CKUSA = RHDKUSAHCOW HDRUSA POPUSA DW NOINT ; EKSPOR_KUSA : MODEL XKUSA = RHEKUSA HDKUSA PRODKUSA DW ; HARGA_XRUSA : MODEL HERUSA = HRW SERUSA XRUSA DW NOINT ; HARGA_MRUSA : MODEL HMRUSA = HRW TMRUSA DW NOINT ; HARGA_DRUSA : MODEL HDRUSA = HERUSA HMRUSA SDRUSA CRUSA DW ; DISAPPR_RUSA: MODEL CRUSA = HDRUSA RHDRUSAHCOW HDKUSA POPUSA DW ; IMPOR_RUSA : MODEL MRUSA = HMRUSA STOKRUSA CRUSA LMRUSA DW ; EKSPOR_RUSA : MODEL XRUSA = HERUSA HDRUSA PRODRUSA DW NOINT ; HARGA_DRCD : MODEL HDRCD = HERCD PRODRCD CRCD LHDRCD DW NOINT ; HARGA_XRCD : MODEL HERCD = HRW SERCD XRCD LHERCD DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_RCD : MODEL CRCD = HDRCD HCOW POPCD LCRCD DW ; EKSPOR_RCD : MODEL XRCD = RHERCD HDRCD PRODRCD LXRCD DW NOINT ; HARGA_MSP : MODEL HMSP = HSW LHMSP DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_SP : MODEL CSP = HMSP POPP LCSP DW ; IMPOR_SP : MODEL MSP = HMSP ERP TMSP RCSP LMSP DW ; HARGA_MMMS : MODEL HMMMS = HMW TMMMS LHMMMS DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_MMS : MODEL CMMS = HMMMS ERMS POPMS LCMMS DW ; IMPOR_MMS : MODEL MMMS = RHMMMS ERMS RCMMS DW ; HARGA_MKEU : MODEL HMKEU = HKW TMKEU DW ; DISAPPR_KEU : MODEL CKEU = HMKEU HMREU HMMEU RHCOW IPEU LCKEU DW NOINT ; IMPOR_KEU : MODEL MKEU = HMKEU EREU CKEU DW NOINT ; HARGA_MSEU : MODEL HMSEU = HSW TMSEU DW ; DISAPPR_SEU : MODEL CSEU = HMSEU HMMEU RHCOW IPEU POPEU LCSEU DW ; IMPOR_SEU : MODEL MSEU = HMSEU CSEU LMSEU DW NOINT ; HARGA_MREU : MODEL HMREU = HRW TMREU DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_REU : MODEL CREU = HMREU HMSEU HCOW POPEU LCREU DW ; IMPOR_REU : MODEL MREU = HMREU CREU DW ; HARGA_MMEU : MODEL HMMEU = HMW TMMEU DW ; DISAPPR_MEU : MODEL CMEU = RHMMREU HMKEU IPEU DW ; IMPOR_MEU : MODEL MMEU = HMMEU PRODMEU CMEU LMMEU DW ; HARGA_MSC : MODEL HMSC = HSW TMSC DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_SC : MODEL CSC = HMSC HMKC HMRC HCOW IPC POPC DW ; IMPOR_SC : MODEL MSC = HMSC CSC DW ; Lampiran 6. Lanjutan HARGA_MKC : MODEL HMKC = HKW TMKC DW ; DISAPPR_KC : MODEL CKC = HMKC IPC POPC LCKC DW ; IMPOR_KC : MODEL MKC = HMKC CKC LMKC DW NOINT ; HARGA_MRC : MODEL HMRC = HRW TMRC DW ; DISAPPR_RC : MODEL CRC = HMRC HMKC IPC POPC LCRC DW ; IMPOR_RC : MODEL MRC = HMRC PRODRC CRC LMRC DW ; HARGA_MKID : MODEL HMKID = HKW TMKID DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_KID : MODEL CKID = HMKID HMSID HCOW POPID LCKID DW ; IMPOR_KID : MODEL MKID = HMKID PRODKID CKID DW ; HARGA_MSID : MODEL HMSID = HSW RCSID LHMSID DW ; DISAPPR_SID : MODEL CSID = HMSID IPID POPID DW ; IMPOR_SID : MODEL MSID = RRHMSIDRCSID TMSID ERID DW ; HARGA_MKIR : MODEL HMKIR = HKW TMKIR DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_KIR : MODEL CKIR = HMKIR HMMIR POPIR LCKIR DW NOINT ; IMPOR_KIR : MODEL MKIR = HMKIR PRODKIR CKIR LMKIR DW NOINT ; HARGA_MMIR : MODEL HMMIR = HMW TMMIR LHMMIR DW NOINT ; DISAPPR_MIR : MODEL CMIR = RHMMKIR POPIR LCMIR DW NOINT ; IMPOR_MIR : MODEL MMIR = HMMIR PRODMIR CMIR DW NOINT ; IDENTITY PRODSI = PRODSI+ ; IDENTITY XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW; IDENTITY MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; IDENTITY XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; IDENTITY MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; IDENTITY XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; IDENTITY MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; IDENTITY XMW = XMA+XMRW; IDENTITY MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; IDENTITY SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI; IDENTITY SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; IDENTITY SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB; IDENTITY SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; IDENTITY SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; IDENTITY SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; IDENTITY SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA; PROC PRINT DATA =HASIL1; RUN ; Lampiran 7. Hasil Estimasi Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_SW Dependent Variable HSW Label H_SAWIT_W Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 67954.33 22651.44 2.27 0.1084 Error 22 219361.3 9970.969 Corrected Total 25 287315.7 Root MSE 99.85474 R-Square 0.23651 Dependent Mean 477.27302 Adj R-Sq 0.13240 Coeff Var 20.92193 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 241.8316 95.45324 2.53 0.0189 Intercept XSW 1 -0.02120 0.030070 -0.71 0.4881 X_SWT_W MSW 1 0.023313 0.030170 0.77 0.4479 M_SWT_W LHSW 1 0.474437 0.205034 2.31 0.0304 Durbin-Watson 1.614256 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.189365 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_KW Dependent Variable HKW Label H_KEDELAI_W Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 157888.0 52629.33 6.26 0.0031 Error 22 184911.1 8405.048 Corrected Total 25 342799.0 Root MSE 91.67905 R-Square 0.46058 Dependent Mean 539.42507 Adj R-Sq 0.38703 Coeff Var 16.99570 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 182.7619 96.43096 1.90 0.0713 Intercept XKW 1 -0.03417 0.048740 -0.70 0.4906 X_KDL_W MKW 1 0.051413 0.052234 0.98 0.3357 M_KDL_W LHKW 1 0.487471 0.200599 2.43 0.0237 Durbin-Watson 1.436794 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.235959 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_RW Dependent Variable HRW Label H_RAPE_W Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 258493.5 86164.50 10.03 0.0002 Error 22 188951.3 8588.694 Corrected Total 25 447444.8 Root MSE 92.67521 R-Square 0.57771 Dependent Mean 561.11280 Adj R-Sq 0.52013 Coeff Var 16.51632 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 143.6909 89.48107 1.61 0.1226 Intercept XRW 1 -0.01026 0.109767 -0.09 0.9263 X_RAPE_W MRW 1 0.062441 0.104847 0.60 0.5576 M_RAPE_W LHRW 1 0.539133 0.199119 2.71 0.0129 Durbin-Watson 1.624118 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.16493 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MW Dependent Variable HMW Label H_MTHR_W Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 132537.0 66268.50 3.91 0.0347 Error 23 390262.6 16967.94 Corrected Total 25 522799.6 Root MSE 130.26105 R-Square 0.25351 Dependent Mean 605.15934 Adj R-Sq 0.18860 Coeff Var 21.52508 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 380.0096 90.40906 4.20 0.0003 Intercept XMW 1 -0.15911 0.126640 -1.26 0.2216 X_MTHR_W MMW 1 0.243896 0.138520 1.76 0.0916 M_MTHR_W Durbin-Watson 0.998888 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.373727 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LSM_PBN Dependent Variable LASMIN Label L_TM_PBN Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 4462354 1487451 3441.04 .0001 Error 23 9942.176 432.2685 Uncorrected 26 4472296 Total Root MSE 20.79107 R-Square 0.99778 Dependent Mean 396.02519 Adj R-Sq 0.99749 Coeff Var 5.24994 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label LHESI 1 0.089329 0.027552 3.24 0.0036 LAG HESI RHCPI 1 -1.12078 0.433286 -2.59 0.0165 LAJU_H_PUPUK L3LASIN 1 0.858698 0.024979 34.38 .0001 LAG3_LASIN Durbin-Watson 1.525538 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.197674 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LSM_PBS Dependent Variable LASMIS Label L_TM_PBS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 16400138 4100034 126.36 .0001 Error 21 681401.6 32447.69 Corrected Total 25 17081539 Root MSE 180.13243 R-Square 0.96011 Dependent Mean 869.73977 Adj R-Sq 0.95251 Coeff Var 20.71107 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 243.9014 355.1503 0.69 0.4998 Intercept LHESI 1 0.116390 0.448355 0.26 0.7977 LAG HESI RHCPI 1 -0.21126 3.780737 -0.06 0.9560 LAJU_H_PUPUK USPI 1 -0.43739 0.521472 -0.84 0.4110 UPAH_TK KBN L3LASIS 1 0.804695 0.036502 22.05 .0001 LAG3_LASIS Durbin-Watson 0.374684 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.732301 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LSM_PR Dependent Variable LASMIR Label L_TM_PR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 11503976 3834659 899.01 .0001 Error 22 93839.51 4265.432 Corrected Total 25 11597815 Root MSE 65.31028 R-Square 0.99191 Dependent Mean 669.91000 Adj R-Sq 0.99081 Coeff Var 9.74911 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 72.46956 128.0829 0.57 0.5773 Intercept LHDSI 1 0.013851 0.013267 1.04 0.3078 LAG_HDSI USPI 1 -0.24278 0.184119 -1.32 0.2009 UPAH_TK KBN LLASIR 1 0.778981 0.020316 38.34 .0001 LAG LASIR Durbin-Watson 2.030672 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09431 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YIELD_PBN Dependent Variable YIESIN Label YLD_PBN Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 364.5961 91.14902 733.91 .0001 Error 22 2.732325 0.124197 Uncorrected 26 367.3284 Total Root MSE 0.35242 R-Square 0.99256 Dependent Mean 3.72508 Adj R-Sq 0.99121 Coeff Var 9.46062 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESI 1 0.000224 0.000882 0.25 0.8015 HE_SWT_INA RHCPI 1 -0.00153 0.007647 -0.20 0.8433 LAJU_H_PUPUK DLASMIN 1 -0.00406 0.002210 -1.84 0.0798 DELTA_LASMIN LYIESIN 1 0.992763 0.100255 9.90 .0001 LAG YIESIN Durbin-Watson 2.209886 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.11818 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YIELD_PBS Dependent Variable YIESIS Label YLD_PBS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 339.9629 113.3210 624.47 .0001 Error 23 4.173775 0.181468 Uncorrected 26 344.1367 Total Root MSE 0.42599 R-Square 0.98787 Dependent Mean 3.61407 Adj R-Sq 0.98629 Coeff Var 11.78703 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESI 1 0.001041 0.000877 1.19 0.2476 HE_SWT_INA DLASMIS 1 -0.00015 0.000771 -0.19 0.8524 DELTA_LASMIS LYIESIS 1 0.883280 0.098663 8.95 .0001 LAG YIESIS Durbin-Watson 2.399457 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21781 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YIELD_PR Dependent Variable YIESIR Label YLD_PR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 154.4956 30.89913 67.36 .0001 Error 21 9.633225 0.458725 Uncorrected 26 164.1289 Total Root MSE 0.67729 R-Square 0.94131 Dependent Mean 2.40150 Adj R-Sq 0.92733 Coeff Var 28.20291 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HDSI 1 0.000087 0.000148 0.59 0.5628 HD_SWT_INA LHDSI 1 0.000197 0.000160 1.23 0.2324 LAG HDSI RHCPI 1 -0.00817 0.016388 -0.50 0.6233 LAJU_H_PUPUK DLASMIR 1 -0.00149 0.002078 -0.72 0.4804 DELTA_LASMIR LYIESIR 1 0.584751 0.184714 3.17 0.0047 LAG YIESIR Durbin-Watson 2.644813 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.32769 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DSI Dependent Variable HDSI Label HD_SWT_INA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 4.6678E8 1.167E8 177.07 .0001 Error 22 14498523 659023.8 Uncorrected 26 4.8128E8 Total Root MSE 811.80279 R-Square 0.96988 Dependent Mean 4124.32175 Adj R-Sq 0.96440 Coeff Var 19.68330 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESI 1 4.662357 2.145936 2.17 0.0409 HE_SWT_INA ERI 1 0.157079 0.073032 2.15 0.0427 RPUSD RTSDSI 1 -464.243 1139.079 -0.41 0.6875 LHDSI 1 0.300709 0.133291 2.26 0.0343 LAG HDSI Durbin-Watson 1.817476 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.047879 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XSI Dependent Variable HESI Label HE_SWT_INA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 4412009 1103002 937.12 .0001 Error 22 25894.30 1177.013 Uncorrected 26 4437904 Total Root MSE 34.30763 R-Square 0.99417 Dependent Mean 404.29708 Adj R-Sq 0.99310 Coeff Var 8.48575 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HSW 1 0.745129 0.076309 9.76 .0001 H_SAWIT_W ERI 1 -0.00176 0.002146 -0.82 0.4202 RPUSD RXSI 1 -11.0698 17.10209 -0.65 0.5241 LAJU XSI LHESI 1 0.167411 0.092343 1.81 0.0835 LAG HESI Durbin-Watson 1.601501 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.161462 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_SI Dependent Variable XSI Label X_SWT_INA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 8.5625E8 1.7125E8 320.67 .0001 Error 21 11214757 534036.0 Uncorrected 26 8.6747E8 Total Root MSE 730.77769 R-Square 0.98707 Dependent Mean 3974.61242 Adj R-Sq 0.98399 Coeff Var 18.38614 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESI 1 1.405829 1.227851 1.14 0.2651 HE_SWT_INA RHDSI 1 -453.433 556.1400 -0.82 0.4240 LAJU HDSI ERI 1 0.008254 0.044068 0.19 0.8532 RPUSD PESI 1 -57.9413 19.82251 -2.92 0.0081 PE_SWT_INA SXSI 1 0.896068 0.035660 25.13 .0001 SUPPLY_XSI Durbin-Watson 1.925645 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.034592 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAP_SI Dependent Variable CSI Label C_SWT_INA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 45682982 11420745 398.70 .0001 Error 21 601542.5 28644.88 Corrected Total 25 46284524 Root MSE 169.24798 R-Square 0.98700 Dependent Mean 2548.61538 Adj R-Sq 0.98453 Coeff Var 6.64078 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -3450.09 1447.592 -2.38 0.0267 Intercept HDSI 1 -0.05438 0.041600 -1.31 0.2053 HD_SWT_INA RHCOW 1 961.7034 1336.360 0.72 0.4797 LAJU HCOW POPI 1 23.42292 9.189867 2.55 0.0187 POPULASI_INA LCSI 1 0.695843 0.145896 4.77 0.0001 LAG CSI Durbin-Watson 1.986525 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.11882 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XSM Dependent Variable HESM Label HE_SWT_MAS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 255341.1 63835.27 24.74 .0001 Error 21 54182.37 2580.113 Corrected Total 25 309523.5 Root MSE 50.79481 R-Square 0.82495 Dependent Mean 433.45577 Adj R-Sq 0.79161 Coeff Var 11.71857 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 15.75933 144.8625 0.11 0.9144 Intercept HSW 1 0.855158 0.106558 8.03 .0001 H_SAWIT_W ERM 1 -14.0676 28.53421 -0.49 0.6271 RMUSD XSM 1 -0.00528 0.003112 -1.70 0.1045 X_SWT_MAS LHESM 1 0.244956 0.097682 2.51 0.0204 LAG HESM Durbin-Watson 2.345653 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21571 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_SM Dependent Variable XSM Label X_SWT_MAS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 1.926E9 3.8521E8 881.01 .0001 Error 21 9181847 437230.8 Uncorrected 26 1.9352E9 Total Root MSE 661.23430 R-Square 0.99526 Dependent Mean 7815.82842 Adj R-Sq 0.99413 Coeff Var 8.46019 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HESM 1 0.069857 1.229855 0.06 0.9552 HE_SWT_MAS PESM 1 -6.67733 32.51640 -0.21 0.8393 PE_SWT_MAS STOKSM 1 0.812459 0.736158 1.10 0.2822 STOK_SWT_MAS PRODSM 1 0.388918 0.187560 2.07 0.0506 PROD_SWT_MAS LXSM 1 0.465425 0.221681 2.10 0.0480 LAG XSM Durbin-Watson 2.915638 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.4754 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XKB Dependent Variable HEKB Label HE_KDL_BRL Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 118047.9 29511.97 2.25 0.0978 Error 21 275187.1 13104.15 Corrected Total 25 393235.0 Root MSE 114.47334 R-Square 0.30020 Dependent Mean 590.04818 Adj R-Sq 0.16690 Coeff Var 19.40068 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 351.7565 211.2894 1.66 0.1108 Intercept HKW 1 0.110846 0.419975 0.26 0.7944 H_KEDELAI_W ERB 1 -6.46154 33.42482 -0.19 0.8486 BRLUSD PEKB 1 -3.66984 6.616058 -0.55 0.5850 PE_KDL_BRL LHEKB 1 0.454223 0.387453 1.17 0.2542 LAG HEKB Durbin-Watson 1.410679 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.156338 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DKB Dependent Variable HDKB Label HD_KDL_BRL Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 3321640 1107213 41.79 .0001 Error 23 609337.7 26492.94 Uncorrected 26 3930977 Total Root MSE 162.76653 R-Square 0.84499 Dependent Mean 370.24753 Adj R-Sq 0.82477 Coeff Var 43.96154 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HEKB 1 0.507638 0.215462 2.36 0.0274 HE_KDL_BRL SDKB 1 -0.14320 0.292086 -0.49 0.6286 SD_KDL_BRL CKB 1 0.169727 0.325410 0.52 0.6070 C_KDL_BRL Durbin-Watson 0.653267 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.664994 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KB Dependent Variable CKB Label C_KDL_BRL Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 9860452 2465113 130.52 .0001 Error 21 396612.4 18886.31 Corrected Total 25 10257064 Root MSE 137.42745 R-Square 0.96133 Dependent Mean 2620.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.95397 Coeff Var 5.24532 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -903.105 574.6626 -1.57 0.1310 Intercept HDKB 1 -0.19697 0.321640 -0.61 0.5469 HD_KDL_BRL RRHDKBRHCOW 1 -2.17634 0.799880 -2.72 0.0128 POPB 1 11.50532 5.819621 1.98 0.0613 POPULASI_BRL LCKB 1 0.683214 0.180003 3.80 0.0011 LAG CKB Durbin-Watson 1.784028 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.099466 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_KB Dependent Variable XKB Label X_KDL_BRL Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 11495418 2299084 42.50 .0001 Error 20 1081836 54091.79 Corrected Total 25 12577254 Root MSE 232.57642 R-Square 0.91398 Dependent Mean 1452.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.89248 Coeff Var 16.01766 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -723.471 386.7685 -1.87 0.0761 Intercept HEKB 1 0.229701 0.399013 0.58 0.5713 HE_KDL_BRL HDKB 1 -0.41627 0.469886 -0.89 0.3862 HD_KDL_BRL ERB 1 100.4155 67.94557 1.48 0.1550 BRLUSD PRODKB 1 0.440950 0.090360 4.88 .0001 PROD_KDL_BRL LXKB 1 0.116749 0.164151 0.71 0.4852 LAG XKB Durbin-Watson 1.693249 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.0918 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XKA Dependent Variable HEKA Label HE_KDL_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 232196.9 58049.22 74.86 .0001 Error 21 16283.11 775.3863 Corrected Total 25 248480.0 Root MSE 27.84576 R-Square 0.93447 Dependent Mean 500.03510 Adj R-Sq 0.92199 Coeff Var 5.56876 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 39.59796 37.61599 1.05 0.3044 Intercept HKW 1 0.870944 0.056011 15.55 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W ERA 1 -4.28929 5.446008 -0.79 0.4397 ARSUSD XKA 1 -0.01236 0.003411 -3.62 0.0016 X_KDL_ARG LHEKA 1 0.066310 0.069017 0.96 0.3476 LAG HEKA Durbin-Watson 1.451251 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.140004 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DKA Dependent Variable HDKA Label HD_KDL_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 40528.15 13509.38 3.37 0.0368 Error 22 88244.13 4011.097 Corrected Total 25 128772.3 Root MSE 63.33322 R-Square 0.31473 Dependent Mean 356.89568 Adj R-Sq 0.22128 Coeff Var 17.74558 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 127.8220 92.64383 1.38 0.1815 Intercept HEKA 1 0.104366 0.131084 0.80 0.4344 HE_KDL_ARG RSDCKA 1 -2.90880 8.574388 -0.34 0.7376 LHDKA 1 0.521371 0.202320 2.58 0.0172 LAG HDKA Durbin-Watson 1.985634 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.0186 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KA Dependent Variable CKA Label C_KDL_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 1117888 372629.3 12.82 .0001 Error 22 639520.7 29069.12 Corrected Total 25 1757409 Root MSE 170.49669 R-Square 0.63610 Dependent Mean 277.76923 Adj R-Sq 0.58648 Coeff Var 61.38070 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -2039.83 380.3304 -5.36 .0001 Intercept RHDKA 1 -41.4378 181.1289 -0.23 0.8212 LAJU HDKA RHCOW 1 131.3494 1249.220 0.11 0.9172 LAJU HCOW POPA 1 66.68074 10.92070 6.11 .0001 POPA Durbin-Watson 0.337253 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.634497 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_KA Dependent Variable XKA Label X_KDL_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 2.5498E8 63745945 1447.53 .0001 Error 22 968828.4 44037.66 Uncorrected 26 2.5595E8 Total Root MSE 209.85151 R-Square 0.99621 Dependent Mean 2561.73077 Adj R-Sq 0.99553 Coeff Var 8.19179 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HEKA 1 0.163538 0.368430 0.44 0.6615 HE_KDL_ARG HDKA 1 -0.41667 0.537170 -0.78 0.4462 HD_KDL_ARG ERA 1 10.76324 36.91756 0.29 0.7734 ARSUSD PRODKA 1 0.909194 0.023724 38.32 .0001 PROD_KDL_ARG Durbin-Watson 1.304746 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.209045 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XMA Dependent Variable HEMA Label HE_MTHR_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 196200.7 98100.33 33.88 .0001 Error 23 66603.28 2895.795 Corrected Total 25 262803.9 Root MSE 53.81259 R-Square 0.74657 Dependent Mean 538.51009 Adj R-Sq 0.72453 Coeff Var 9.99287 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 107.3276 62.75954 1.71 0.1007 Intercept HMW 1 0.550047 0.081047 6.79 .0001 H_MTHR_W LHEMA 1 0.183935 0.115678 1.59 0.1255 LAG HEMA Durbin-Watson 1.161056 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.209525 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DMA Dependent Variable HDMA Label HD_MTHR_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1406468 351616.9 295.83 .0001 Error 22 26148.27 1188.558 Uncorrected 26 1432616 Total Root MSE 34.47547 R-Square 0.98175 Dependent Mean 230.36474 Adj R-Sq 0.97843 Coeff Var 14.96560 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HEMA 1 0.162831 0.061444 2.65 0.0146 HE_MTHR_ARG SDMA 1 -0.32333 0.267054 -1.21 0.2388 CMA 1 0.399137 0.376529 1.06 0.3006 KON_MTHR_ARG LHDMA 1 0.621045 0.164138 3.78 0.0010 LAG HDMA Durbin-Watson 2.327425 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.1706 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_MA Dependent Variable CMA Label C_MTHR_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 3608084 1202695 163.60 .0001 Error 23 169081.7 7351.378 Uncorrected 26 3777166 Total Root MSE 85.74018 R-Square 0.95524 Dependent Mean 371.61538 Adj R-Sq 0.94940 Coeff Var 23.07229 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label RHDMKA 1 -225.772 327.2360 -0.69 0.4971 HCOW 1 5.172079 4.264947 1.21 0.2376 H_MYK.BUMI_W POPA 1 6.433590 5.244161 1.23 0.2323 POPULASI_ARG Durbin-Watson 0.950674 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.504482 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_MA Dependent Variable XMA Label X_MTHR_ARG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 2748558 549711.7 108.85 .0001 Error 20 101000.6 5050.029 Corrected Total 25 2849559 Root MSE 71.06356 R-Square 0.96456 Dependent Mean 1122.03846 Adj R-Sq 0.95569 Coeff Var 6.33343 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -27.2357 102.4615 -0.27 0.7931 Intercept HEMA 1 0.065140 0.171446 0.38 0.7080 HE_MTHR_ARG HDMA 1 -0.22921 0.325185 -0.70 0.4890 HD_MTHR_ARG PEMA 1 -2.04815 3.105707 -0.66 0.5171 PE_MTHR_ARG PRODMA 1 0.794059 0.054314 14.62 .0001 PROD_MTH_ARG LXMA 1 0.011916 0.056456 0.21 0.8350 LAG XMA Durbin-Watson 2.435471 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.22337 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XKUSA Dependent Variable HEKUSA Label HE_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 98953.01 49476.50 3.21 0.0589 Error 23 354441.5 15410.50 Corrected Total 25 453394.5 Root MSE 124.13903 R-Square 0.21825 Dependent Mean 623.84113 Adj R-Sq 0.15027 Coeff Var 19.89914 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 343.4989 117.3232 2.93 0.0076 Intercept HKW 1 0.457125 0.218753 2.09 0.0479 H_KEDELAI_W SEKUSA 1 2.036429 2.327399 0.87 0.3906 SE_KDL_USA Durbin-Watson 0.633913 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.613479 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DKUSA Dependent Variable HDKUSA Label HD_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 15578412 5192804 371.32 .0001 Error 23 321646.4 13984.63 Uncorrected 26 15900059 Total Root MSE 118.25661 R-Square 0.97977 Dependent Mean 773.72139 Adj R-Sq 0.97713 Coeff Var 15.28413 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HEKUSA 1 0.519024 0.146361 3.55 0.0017 HE_KDL_USA SDKUSA 1 -0.12344 0.099173 -1.24 0.2258 CKUSA 1 0.206917 0.115929 1.78 0.0875 C_KDL_USA Durbin-Watson 0.980044 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.474246 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_USA Dependent Variable CKUSA Label C_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 1.0983E9 3.6611E8 544.94 .0001 Error 23 15452279 671838.2 Uncorrected 26 1.1138E9 Total Root MSE 819.65739 R-Square 0.98613 Dependent Mean 6417.34615 Adj R-Sq 0.98432 Coeff Var 12.77253 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label RHDKUSAHCOW 1 -70.3891 127.2322 -0.55 0.5854 HDRUSA 1 0.709185 2.624096 0.27 0.7894 HD_RAPE_USA POPUSA 1 25.79298 4.855821 5.31 .0001 POP_USA Durbin-Watson 0.198069 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.85053 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_KUSA Dependent Variable XKUSA Label X_KDL_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 262368.1 87456.03 1.18 0.3401 Error 22 1630440 74110.91 Corrected Total 25 1892808 Root MSE 272.23318 R-Square 0.13861 Dependent Mean 788.19231 Adj R-Sq 0.02115 Coeff Var 34.53893 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 441.8021 409.7087 1.08 0.2926 Intercept RHEKUSA 1 65.10564 313.5075 0.21 0.8374 HDKUSA 1 -0.27971 0.501962 -0.56 0.5830 HD_KDL_USA PRODKUSA 1 0.077960 0.041541 1.88 0.0739 PROD_KDL_USA Durbin-Watson 1.72575 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.125047 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XRUSA Dependent Variable HERUSA Label HE_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 10774835 3591612 201.49 .0001 Error 23 409981.2 17825.27 Uncorrected 26 11184817 Total Root MSE 133.51131 R-Square 0.96334 Dependent Mean 649.12550 Adj R-Sq 0.95856 Coeff Var 20.56787 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HRW 1 0.855283 0.237384 3.60 0.0015 H_RAPE_W SERUSA 1 8.448790 5.180220 1.63 0.1165 SE_RAPE_USA XRUSA 1 -0.42908 0.432013 -0.99 0.3309 X_RAPE_USA Durbin-Watson 1.269166 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.261879 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MRUSA Dependent Variable HMRUSA Label HM_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 9430177 4715089 1710.53 .0001 Error 24 66156.26 2756.511 Uncorrected 26 9496333 Total Root MSE 52.50249 R-Square 0.99303 Dependent Mean 595.32024 Adj R-Sq 0.99245 Coeff Var 8.81920 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HRW 1 0.680184 0.053047 12.82 .0001 H_RAPE_W TMRUSA 1 7.412285 1.036752 7.15 .0001 TM_RAPE_USA Durbin-Watson 1.111695 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.35882 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DRUSA Dependent Variable HDRUSA Label HD_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 282655.5 70663.88 187.98 .0001 Error 21 7893.945 375.9021 Corrected Total 25 290549.4 Root MSE 19.38820 R-Square 0.97283 Dependent Mean 728.66393 Adj R-Sq 0.96766 Coeff Var 2.66079 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 7.249052 29.16400 0.25 0.8061 Intercept HERUSA 1 1.065817 0.045382 23.49 .0001 HE_RAPE_USA HMRUSA 1 0.013472 0.043079 0.31 0.7576 HM_RAPE_USA SDRUSA 1 -0.02424 0.185505 -0.13 0.8973 CRUSA 1 0.066539 0.196467 0.34 0.7382 KON_RAPE_USA Durbin-Watson 1.981115 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09609 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_RUSA Dependent Variable CRUSA Label KON_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 2986773 746693.4 43.03 .0001 Error 21 364377.2 17351.30 Corrected Total 25 3351151 Root MSE 131.72432 R-Square 0.89127 Dependent Mean 532.11538 Adj R-Sq 0.87056 Coeff Var 24.75484 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -3516.09 325.8055 -10.79 .0001 Intercept HDRUSA 1 -0.79295 1.320012 -0.60 0.5545 HD_RAPE_USA RHDRUSAHCOW 1 -6.57461 79.89775 -0.08 0.9352 HDKUSA 1 0.299084 0.444058 0.67 0.5080 HD_KDL_USA POPUSA 1 16.70166 1.370140 12.19 .0001 POPULASI_USA Durbin-Watson 0.819839 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.382386 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_RUSA Dependent Variable XRUSA Label X_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 281380.1 93793.37 55.34 .0001 Error 23 38981.90 1694.865 Uncorrected 26 320362.0 Total Root MSE 41.16874 R-Square 0.87832 Dependent Mean 80.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.86245 Coeff Var 51.46093 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HERUSA 1 0.066989 0.469420 0.14 0.8878 HE_RAPE_USA HDRUSA 1 -0.05650 0.427448 -0.13 0.8960 HD_RAPE_USA PRODRUSA 1 0.431599 0.065818 6.56 .0001 PROD_RAPE_US Durbin-Watson 1.577254 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.177428 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_RUSA Dependent Variable MRUSA Label M_RAPE_USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1921045 480261.3 231.31 .0001 Error 21 43600.73 2076.225 Corrected Total 25 1964646 Root MSE 45.56561 R-Square 0.97781 Dependent Mean 434.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.97358 Coeff Var 10.49899 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 56.36600 52.29767 1.08 0.2934 Intercept HMRUSA 1 -0.05946 0.091702 -0.65 0.5238 HM_RAPE_USA STOKRUSA 1 -0.52080 0.474291 -1.10 0.2846 STOK_RAPE_US CRUSA 1 0.644072 0.089667 7.18 .0001 KON_RAPE_USA LMRUSA 1 0.230138 0.138279 1.66 0.1109 LAG MRUSA Durbin-Watson 1.546701 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.21946 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_DRCD Dependent Variable HDRCD Label HD_RAPE_CD Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 10148674 2537169 928.57 .0001 Error 22 60111.35 2732.334 Uncorrected 26 10208786 Total Root MSE 52.27173 R-Square 0.99411 Dependent Mean 619.01389 Adj R-Sq 0.99304 Coeff Var 8.44436 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HERCD 1 0.990814 0.110647 8.95 .0001 HE_RAPE_CD PRODRCD 1 -0.00435 0.032375 -0.13 0.8942 PROD_RAPE_CD CRCD 1 0.015832 0.118266 0.13 0.8947 KONS_RAPE_CD LHDRCD 1 0.063175 0.111401 0.57 0.5764 LAG HDRCD Durbin-Watson 2.093515 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.06197 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_XRCD Dependent Variable HERCD Label HE_RAPE_CD Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 8928012 2232003 520.32 .0001 Error 22 94372.79 4289.672 Uncorrected 26 9022385 Total Root MSE 65.49559 R-Square 0.98954 Dependent Mean 581.69623 Adj R-Sq 0.98764 Coeff Var 11.25941 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HRW 1 0.636471 0.138230 4.60 0.0001 H_RAPE_RW SERCD 1 0.079828 1.672016 0.05 0.9624 SE_RAPE_CD XRCD 1 -0.15465 0.053570 -2.89 0.0086 X_RAPE_CD LHERCD 1 0.542992 0.103957 5.22 .0001 LAG HERCD Durbin-Watson 1.505233 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.067104 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_RCD Dependent Variable CRCD Label KON_RAPE_CD Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 198206.9 49551.73 16.17 .0001 Error 21 64358.05 3064.669 Corrected Total 25 262565.0 Root MSE 55.35945 R-Square 0.75489 Dependent Mean 418.03846 Adj R-Sq 0.70820 Coeff Var 13.24267 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -169.133 514.5234 -0.33 0.7456 Intercept HDRCD 1 -0.00666 0.134833 -0.05 0.9611 HD_RAPE_CD HCOW 1 4.062721 8.558575 0.47 0.6399 H_MYK.BUMI_W POPCD 1 1.131358 5.727270 0.20 0.8453 POPULASI_CD LCRCD 1 0.797579 0.127383 6.26 .0001 LAG CRCD Durbin-Watson 1.418335 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.269237 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_RCD Dependent Variable XRCD Label X_RAPE_CD Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 12863673 3215918 339.59 .0001 Error 22 208340.6 9470.028 Uncorrected 26 13072014 Total Root MSE 97.31407 R-Square 0.98406 Dependent Mean 604.53846 Adj R-Sq 0.98116 Coeff Var 16.09725 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label RHERCD 1 5.123725 133.7024 0.04 0.9698 LAJU HERCD HDRCD 1 -0.32645 0.127713 -2.56 0.0180 HD_RAPE_CD PRODRCD 1 0.583089 0.142575 4.09 0.0005 PROD_RAPE_CD LXRCD 1 0.414745 0.143973 2.88 0.0087 LAG XRCD Durbin-Watson 1.091843 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.451466 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MSP Dependent Variable HMSP Label HM_SWT_PKT Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 6560406 3280203 358.48 .0001 Error 24 219606.8 9150.283 Uncorrected 26 6780013 Total Root MSE 95.65711 R-Square 0.96761 Dependent Mean 492.25841 Adj R-Sq 0.96491 Coeff Var 19.43230 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HSW 1 0.689993 0.114202 6.04 .0001 H_SAWIT_W LHMSP 1 0.334226 0.108595 3.08 0.0052 LAG HMSP Durbin-Watson 2.052818 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09094 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_SP Dependent Variable CSP Label KON_SWT_PKT Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 5863134 1954378 79.41 .0001 Error 22 541419.5 24609.98 Corrected Total 25 6404553 Root MSE 156.87568 R-Square 0.91546 Dependent Mean 1076.84615 Adj R-Sq 0.90394 Coeff Var 14.56807 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -799.987 350.4530 -2.28 0.0325 Intercept HMSP 1 -0.30548 0.229976 -1.33 0.1977 HM_SWT_PKT POPP 1 12.74509 4.229904 3.01 0.0064 POP_PKT LCSP 1 0.433641 0.194132 2.23 0.0360 Durbin-Watson 2.10229 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.08351 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_SP Dependent Variable MSP Label M_SWT_PKT Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 6203632 1240726 125.26 .0001 Error 20 198100.4 9905.021 Corrected Total 25 6401732 Root MSE 99.52397 R-Square 0.96906 Dependent Mean 1077.46154 Adj R-Sq 0.96132 Coeff Var 9.23689 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 2310.386 647.5191 3.57 0.0019 Intercept HMSP 1 -0.13369 0.147317 -0.91 0.3750 HM_SWT_PK ERP 1 -9.75469 4.698799 -2.08 0.0510 PKRUSD TMSP 1 -39.9513 9.953031 -4.01 0.0007 TM_SWT_PK RCSP 1 784.9596 134.2672 5.85 .0001 LAJU CSP LMSP 1 0.463356 0.151495 3.06 0.0062 LAG MSP Durbin-Watson 2.819279 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.40988 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MMMS Dependent Variable HMMMS Label HM_MTHR_MS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 10743523 3581174 186.17 .0001 Error 23 442426.2 19235.92 Uncorrected 26 11185950 Total Root MSE 138.69363 R-Square 0.96045 Dependent Mean 639.93478 Adj R-Sq 0.95529 Coeff Var 21.67309 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMW 1 0.359474 0.130518 2.75 0.0113 H_MTHR_W TMMMS 1 7.690904 3.146948 2.44 0.0226 TM_MTHR_MS LHMMMS 1 0.345766 0.166733 2.07 0.0495 LAG HMMS Durbin-Watson 1.661381 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.109781 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_MMS Dependent Variable CMMS Label KON_MTHR_MS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 32754.75 8188.688 2.20 0.1038 Error 21 78113.90 3719.710 Corrected Total 25 110868.7 Root MSE 60.98942 R-Square 0.29544 Dependent Mean 211.11538 Adj R-Sq 0.16124 Coeff Var 28.88914 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 216.4328 118.6874 1.82 0.0825 Intercept HMMMS 1 -0.00951 0.100222 -0.09 0.9253 HM_MTHR_MS ERMS 1 -14.3876 13.14317 -1.09 0.2861 EUSD POPMS 1 0.112771 1.367242 0.08 0.9350 POPULASI_MS LCMMS 1 0.369714 0.211808 1.75 0.0955 LAG CMMS Durbin-Watson 2.020331 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.07217 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_MMS Dependent Variable MMMS Label M_MTHR_MS Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 46335.06 15445.02 5.28 0.0068 Error 22 64313.56 2923.343 Corrected Total 25 110648.6 Root MSE 54.06795 R-Square 0.41876 Dependent Mean 206.76923 Adj R-Sq 0.33950 Coeff Var 26.14894 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 353.3033 50.26434 7.03 .0001 Intercept RHMMMS 1 -2.37764 39.01334 -0.06 0.9520 LAJU HMMS ERMS 1 -27.9014 8.838741 -3.16 0.0046 EUSD RCMMS 1 82.52237 29.77358 2.77 0.0111 LAJU CMMS Durbin-Watson 0.751208 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.540745 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MKEU Dependent Variable HMKEU Label HM_KDL_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 109875.5 54937.76 15.49 .0001 Error 23 81549.70 3545.639 Corrected Total 25 191425.2 Root MSE 59.54527 R-Square 0.57399 Dependent Mean 586.39984 Adj R-Sq 0.53694 Coeff Var 10.15438 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 175.0135 284.2963 0.62 0.5442 Intercept HKW 1 0.563480 0.101761 5.54 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W TMKEU 1 4.251363 11.10336 0.38 0.7053 TM_KDL_EU Durbin-Watson 1.17561 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.192989 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KEU Dependent Variable CKEU Label KON_KDL_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 59129322 9854887 560.10 .0001 Error 20 351897.1 17594.85 Uncorrected 26 59481219 Total Root MSE 132.64559 R-Square 0.99408 Dependent Mean 1498.46777 Adj R-Sq 0.99231 Coeff Var 8.85208 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMKEU 1 -0.77048 0.859239 -0.90 0.3805 HM_KDL_EU HMREU 1 0.615640 0.556143 1.11 0.2814 HM_RAPE_EU HMMEU 1 0.503863 0.727754 0.69 0.4967 HM_MTHR_EU RHCOW 1 1400.688 1045.484 1.34 0.1954 LAJU HCOW IPEU 1 0.026403 0.010320 2.56 0.0187 INCM.KAPT_EU LCKEU 1 0.374336 0.179016 2.09 0.0495 LAG CKEU Durbin-Watson 1.542827 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.193369 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KEU Dependent Variable MKEU Label M_KDL_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 15689234 5229745 37.73 .0001 Error 23 3188069 138611.7 Uncorrected 26 18877304 Total Root MSE 372.30594 R-Square 0.83112 Dependent Mean 766.55665 Adj R-Sq 0.80909 Coeff Var 48.56861 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMKEU 1 -0.30298 0.870566 -0.35 0.7310 HM_KDL_EU EREU 1 -91.3233 128.0756 -0.71 0.4830 EUROUSD CKEU 1 0.702171 0.320008 2.19 0.0386 KON_KDL_EU Durbin-Watson 0.266448 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.739788 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MSEU Dependent Variable HMSEU Label HM_SWT_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 155631.5 77815.77 41.07 .0001 Error 23 43581.30 1894.839 Corrected Total 25 199212.8 Root MSE 43.52975 R-Square 0.78123 Dependent Mean 521.56589 Adj R-Sq 0.76221 Coeff Var 8.34597 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 133.9674 88.67024 1.51 0.1444 Intercept HSW 1 0.746373 0.084815 8.80 .0001 H_SAWIT_W TMSEU 1 1.444464 3.112930 0.46 0.6470 TM_SWT_EU Durbin-Watson 1.473455 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.141313 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_SEU Dependent Variable CSEU Label KON_SWT_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 16170706 2695118 101.69 .0001 Error 19 503570.3 26503.70 Corrected Total 25 16674277 Root MSE 162.79957 R-Square 0.96980 Dependent Mean 1661.97904 Adj R-Sq 0.96026 Coeff Var 9.79553 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -10473.3 6638.383 -1.58 0.1311 Intercept HMSEU 1 -1.76015 0.621596 -2.83 0.0107 HM_SWT_EU HMMEU 1 1.236793 0.638800 1.94 0.0679 HM_MTHR_EU RHCOW 1 590.7302 1207.266 0.49 0.6302 LAJU HCOW IPEU 1 0.040975 0.037243 1.10 0.2850 INCM.KAPT_EU POPEU 1 24.40434 17.68829 1.38 0.1837 POP_EU LCSEU 1 0.604560 0.161131 3.75 0.0013 LAG CSEU Durbin-Watson 1.795544 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.093024 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_SEU Dependent Variable MSEU Label M_SWT_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 2.8104E8 93678491 2496.42 .0001 Error 23 863077.6 37525.11 Uncorrected 26 2.819E8 Total Root MSE 193.71400 R-Square 0.99694 Dependent Mean 2849.23458 Adj R-Sq 0.99654 Coeff Var 6.79881 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMSEU 1 -0.23946 0.165309 -1.45 0.1610 HM_SWT_EU CSEU 1 0.399460 0.121357 3.29 0.0032 KON_SWT_EU LMSEU 1 0.871883 0.064325 13.55 .0001 LAG MSEU Durbin-Watson 1.577824 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.166429 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MREU Dependent Variable HMREU Label HM_RAPE_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 10152090 5076045 1232.48 .0001 Error 24 98845.68 4118.570 Uncorrected 26 10250935 Total Root MSE 64.17609 R-Square 0.99036 Dependent Mean 617.52583 Adj R-Sq 0.98955 Coeff Var 10.39245 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HRW 1 0.798185 0.082564 9.67 .0001 H_RAPE_W TMREU 1 7.037101 1.977018 3.56 0.0016 TM_RAPE_EU Durbin-Watson 0.799112 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.375523 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_REU Dependent Variable CREU Label KON_RAPE_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 11886224 2377245 61.62 .0001 Error 20 771591.4 38579.57 Corrected Total 25 12657815 Root MSE 196.41682 R-Square 0.93904 Dependent Mean 1478.89158 Adj R-Sq 0.92380 Coeff Var 13.28135 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -5268.47 4543.253 -1.16 0.2599 Intercept HMREU 1 -0.59224 0.827580 -0.72 0.4825 HM_RAPE_EU HMSEU 1 0.768582 0.840079 0.91 0.3711 HM_SWT_EU HCOW 1 15.21893 29.16739 0.52 0.6076 H_MYK.BUMI_W POPEU 1 10.89263 12.00570 0.91 0.3751 POP_EU LCREU 1 0.908926 0.170249 5.34 .0001 LAG CREU Durbin-Watson 2.408659 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21363 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_REU Dependent Variable MREU Label M_RAPE_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 10658237 5329118 33.07 .0001 Error 23 3706326 161144.6 Corrected Total 25 14364563 Root MSE 401.42824 R-Square 0.74198 Dependent Mean 1163.17100 Adj R-Sq 0.71954 Coeff Var 34.51154 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 154.2939 452.5519 0.34 0.7362 Intercept HMREU 1 -0.72911 0.883108 -0.83 0.4175 HM_RAPE_EU CREU 1 0.986633 0.143912 6.86 .0001 KON_RAPE_EU Durbin-Watson 0.718025 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.556023 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MMEU Dependent Variable HMMEU Label HM_MTTHR_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 116238.8 58119.38 11.18 0.0004 Error 23 119602.8 5200.123 Corrected Total 25 235841.6 Root MSE 72.11188 R-Square 0.49287 Dependent Mean 677.69429 Adj R-Sq 0.44877 Coeff Var 10.64077 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 336.7428 258.6776 1.30 0.2059 Intercept HMW 1 0.486808 0.122409 3.98 0.0006 H_MTHR_W TMMEU 1 2.017002 9.058759 0.22 0.8258 TM_MTHR_EU Durbin-Watson 0.98668 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.291915 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_MEU Dependent Variable CMEU Label KON_MTHR_EU Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 2673469 891156.4 80.25 .0001 Error 22 244308.1 11104.91 Corrected Total 25 2917777 Root MSE 105.37986 R-Square 0.91627 Dependent Mean 1642.78754 Adj R-Sq 0.90485 Coeff Var 6.41470 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -825.988 579.4471 -1.43 0.1681 Intercept RHMMREU 1 -732.909 282.6881 -2.59 0.0166 HMKEU 1 0.478277 0.278230 1.72 0.0997 HM_KDL_EU IPEU 1 0.118464 0.010325 11.47 .0001 INCM.KAPT_EU Durbin-Watson 1.238878 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.253076 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_MEU Dependent Variable MMEU Label M_MTHR_EU Analysis of Variance Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 8898870 2224718 103.73 .0001 Error 21 450399.7 21447.60 Corrected Total 25 9349270 Root MSE 146.45000 R-Square 0.95183 Dependent Mean 1088.62795 Adj R-Sq 0.94265 Coeff Var 13.45271 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 30.12616 261.0122 0.12 0.9092 Intercept HMMEU 1 -0.18123 0.348355 -0.52 0.6083 HM_MTHR_EU PRODMEU 1 -0.30879 0.104796 -2.95 0.0077 PROD_MTHR_EU CMEU 1 0.761962 0.228374 3.34 0.0031 KON_MTHR_EU LMMEU 1 0.650198 0.125867 5.17 .0001 LAG MMEU Durbin-Watson 1.546821 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.213677 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MSC Dependent Variable HMSC Label HM_SWT_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 6037175 3018588 1705.07 .0001 Error 24 42488.63 1770.360 Uncorrected 26 6079664 Total Root MSE 42.07564 R-Square 0.99301 Dependent Mean 476.43243 Adj R-Sq 0.99243 Coeff Var 8.83140 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HSW 1 0.854980 0.047480 18.01 .0001 H_SAWIT_W TMSC 1 2.071625 0.708355 2.92 0.0074 TM_SWT_CINA Durbin-Watson 1.051652 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.302145 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_SC Dependent Variable CSC Label KON_SWT_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 69913541 11652257 64.70 .0001 Error 19 3421944 180102.3 Corrected Total 25 73335485 Root MSE 424.38462 R-Square 0.95334 Dependent Mean 1778.34523 Adj R-Sq 0.93860 Coeff Var 23.86402 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -13375.0 3941.952 -3.39 0.0031 Intercept HMSC 1 -2.99543 1.514199 -1.98 0.0626 HM_SWT_CINA HMKC 1 0.175097 1.151625 0.15 0.8808 HM_KDL_CINA HMRC 1 1.794438 1.604994 1.12 0.2775 HM_RAPE_CINA HCOW 1 145.2790 81.82875 1.78 0.0919 H_MYK.BUMI_W IPC 1 1.223164 0.151634 8.07 .0001 ICM.KAP_CINA POPC 1 3.447816 1.839283 1.87 0.0763 POP_CINA Durbin-Watson 1.097169 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.441054 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_SC Dependent Variable MSC Label M_SWT_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 77586555 38793278 763.93 .0001 Error 23 1167963 50781.00 Corrected Total 25 78754518 Root MSE 225.34640 R-Square 0.98517 Dependent Mean 2046.64954 Adj R-Sq 0.98388 Coeff Var 11.01050 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 274.0120 258.5240 1.06 0.3002 Intercept HMSC 1 -0.12175 0.539598 -0.23 0.8235 HM_SWT_CINA CSC 1 1.029408 0.026583 38.72 .0001 KON_SWT_CINA Durbin-Watson 0.536344 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.728439 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MKC Dependent Variable HMKC Label HM_KDL_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 68839.04 34419.52 5.08 0.0149 Error 23 155936.0 6779.828 Corrected Total 25 224775.1 Root MSE 82.33971 R-Square 0.30626 Dependent Mean 551.18895 Adj R-Sq 0.24593 Coeff Var 14.93856 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 264.6960 114.1766 2.32 0.0297 Intercept HKW 1 0.494498 0.168343 2.94 0.0074 H_KEDELAI_W TMKC 1 0.215192 0.369152 0.58 0.5656 TM_KDL_CINA Durbin-Watson 1.889787 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.16315 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KC Dependent Variable CKC Label KON_KDL_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 17154019 4288505 209.48 .0001 Error 21 429907.8 20471.80 Corrected Total 25 17583927 Root MSE 143.07969 R-Square 0.97555 Dependent Mean 1880.91570 Adj R-Sq 0.97089 Coeff Var 7.60692 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -1707.87 991.0066 -1.72 0.0995 Intercept HMKC 1 -0.16965 0.318783 -0.53 0.6002 HM_KDL_CINA IPC 1 0.014549 0.069336 0.21 0.8358 INCMKAP_CINA POPC 1 1.844396 0.993997 1.86 0.0776 POP_CINA LCKC 1 0.796551 0.178757 4.46 0.0002 LAG CKC Durbin-Watson 2.314156 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21539 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KC Dependent Variable MKC Label M_KDL_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 39361020 13120340 69.29 .0001 Error 23 4355418 189366.0 Uncorrected 26 43716437 Total Root MSE 435.16201 R-Square 0.90037 Dependent Mean 989.83546 Adj R-Sq 0.88738 Coeff Var 43.96307 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMKC 1 -0.29663 0.399797 -0.74 0.4656 HM_KDL_CINA CKC 1 0.346245 0.165388 2.09 0.0475 KON_KDL_CINA LMKC 1 0.593307 0.183979 3.22 0.0037 LAG MKC Durbin-Watson 1.862062 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.061171 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MRC Dependent Variable HMRC Label HM_RAPE_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 112791.9 56395.93 16.14 .0001 Error 23 80354.24 3493.662 Corrected Total 25 193146.1 Root MSE 59.10721 R-Square 0.58397 Dependent Mean 572.96345 Adj R-Sq 0.54780 Coeff Var 10.31605 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 127.0903 92.91518 1.37 0.1846 Intercept HRW 1 0.605879 0.108064 5.61 .0001 H_RAPE_W TMRC 1 3.956275 1.599407 2.47 0.0212 TM_RAPE_CINA Durbin-Watson 1.544718 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.117285 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_RC Dependent Variable CRC Label KON_RAPE_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 31376363 6275273 354.87 .0001 Error 20 353667.2 17683.36 Corrected Total 25 31730030 Root MSE 132.97879 R-Square 0.98885 Dependent Mean 3115.53815 Adj R-Sq 0.98607 Coeff Var 4.26824 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -6128.81 1893.392 -3.24 0.0041 Intercept HMRC 1 -0.00352 0.392250 -0.01 0.9929 HM_RAPE_CINA HMKC 1 0.257495 0.357662 0.72 0.4799 HM_KDL_CINA IPC 1 0.114741 0.052276 2.19 0.0401 INC.KAP_CINA POPC 1 6.436799 1.938662 3.32 0.0034 POP_CINA LCRC 1 0.362579 0.197304 1.84 0.0810 LAG CRC Durbin-Watson 2.108007 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.05917 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_RC Dependent Variable MRC Label M_RAPE_CINA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 501451.6 125362.9 5.57 0.0032 Error 21 472663.9 22507.81 Corrected Total 25 974115.5 Root MSE 150.02602 R-Square 0.51478 Dependent Mean 236.90208 Adj R-Sq 0.42235 Coeff Var 63.32828 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 41.04146 204.0903 0.20 0.8426 Intercept HMRC 1 -0.02139 0.364984 -0.06 0.9538 HM_RAPE_CINA PRODRC 1 -0.44848 0.145449 -3.08 0.0056 PROD_RAPE_CN CRC 1 0.457126 0.145806 3.14 0.0050 KON_RAPE_CN LMRC 1 0.288498 0.169556 1.70 0.1036 LAG MRC Durbin-Watson 1.726645 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.109558 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MKID Dependent Variable HMKID Label HM_KDL_ID Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 10815548 5407774 209.30 .0001 Error 24 620096.4 25837.35 Uncorrected 26 11435644 Total Root MSE 160.74001 R-Square 0.94578 Dependent Mean 641.16080 Adj R-Sq 0.94126 Coeff Var 25.07015 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HKW 1 0.748755 0.109844 6.82 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W TMKID 1 5.162068 1.224019 4.22 0.0003 TM_KDL_INDIA Durbin-Watson 0.68737 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.627736 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KID Dependent Variable CKID Label KON_KDL_ID Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 18031884 3606377 46.07 .0001 Error 20 1565587 78279.34 Corrected Total 25 19597470 Root MSE 279.78445 R-Square 0.92011 Dependent Mean 1289.53846 Adj R-Sq 0.90014 Coeff Var 21.69648 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -4107.24 2641.465 -1.55 0.1357 Intercept HMKID 1 -0.68285 0.457934 -1.49 0.1515 HM_KDL_INDIA HMSID 1 0.414404 0.594720 0.70 0.4939 HM_SWT_INDIA HCOW 1 57.07257 54.68396 1.04 0.3091 H_MYK.BUMI_W POPID 1 1.570795 1.200028 1.31 0.2054 POP_INDIA LCKID 1 0.716798 0.205347 3.49 0.0023 LAG CKID Durbin-Watson 2.049249 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09431 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KID Dependent Variable MKID Label M_KDL_ID Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 9039496 3013165 298.23 .0001 Error 22 222276.5 10103.48 Corrected Total 25 9261772 Root MSE 100.51605 R-Square 0.97600 Dependent Mean 657.99269 Adj R-Sq 0.97273 Coeff Var 15.27617 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 64.95581 109.1634 0.60 0.5579 Intercept HMKID 1 -0.07863 0.141102 -0.56 0.5830 HM_KDL_INDIA PRODKID 1 -0.96035 0.091343 -10.51 .0001 PROD_KDL_ID CKID 1 0.986032 0.047074 20.95 .0001 KON_KDL_ID Durbin-Watson 2.54498 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.28821 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MSID Dependent Variable HMSID Label HM_SWT_ID Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 182051.7 60683.91 16.41 .0001 Error 22 81356.88 3698.040 Corrected Total 25 263408.6 Root MSE 60.81151 R-Square 0.69114 Dependent Mean 466.44712 Adj R-Sq 0.64902 Coeff Var 13.03717 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 42.28541 75.38254 0.56 0.5805 Intercept HSW 1 0.665738 0.128193 5.19 .0001 H_SAWIT_W RCSID 1 23.18987 34.82930 0.67 0.5125 LAJU CSID LHMSID 1 0.218731 0.125128 1.75 0.0944 LAG HMSID Durbin-Watson 1.07785 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.371694 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_SID Dependent Variable CSID Label KON_SWT_ID Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 51391711 17130570 27.06 .0001 Error 22 13928144 633097.4 Corrected Total 25 65319855 Root MSE 795.67420 R-Square 0.78677 Dependent Mean 2013.19615 Adj R-Sq 0.75769 Coeff Var 39.52293 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -10086.8 3553.104 -2.84 0.0096 Intercept HMSID 1 -1.17667 1.923363 -0.61 0.5470 HM_SWT_ID IPID 1 0.756096 0.847393 0.89 0.3819 INC.KAP_ID POPID 1 11.43984 1.560870 7.33 .0001 POP_INDIA Durbin-Watson 0.387161 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.78973 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_SID Dependent Variable MSID Label M_SWT_ID Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 50676155 16892052 29.28 .0001 Error 22 12690421 576837.3 Corrected Total 25 63366577 Root MSE 759.49807 R-Square 0.79973 Dependent Mean 2006.69615 Adj R-Sq 0.77242 Coeff Var 37.84818 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 10490.41 1284.871 8.16 .0001 Intercept RRHMSIDRCSID 1 -91.5287 120.2965 -0.76 0.4548 TMSID 1 -180.130 25.19789 -7.15 .0001 TM_SWT_ID ERID 1 -70.7774 26.48513 -2.67 0.0139 INRUSD Durbin-Watson 0.629999 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.669034 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MK Dependent Variable HMKIR Label HM_KDL_IR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 9011377 4505688 638.85 .0001 Error 24 169268.6 7052.858 Uncorrected 26 9180645 Total Root MSE 83.98130 R-Square 0.98156 Dependent Mean 582.49985 Adj R-Sq 0.98003 Coeff Var 14.41739 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HKW 1 0.870527 0.060770 14.32 .0001 H_KEDELAI_W TMKIR 1 2.671920 0.738601 3.62 0.0014 TM_KDL_IRAN Durbin-Watson 1.830703 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.03012 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_KIR Dependent Variable CKIR Label KON_KDL_IR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 8852987 2213247 206.11 .0001 Error 22 236237.7 10738.08 Uncorrected 26 9089225 Total Root MSE 103.62470 R-Square 0.97401 Dependent Mean 564.73077 Adj R-Sq 0.96928 Coeff Var 18.34940 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMKIR 1 -0.22872 0.184055 -1.24 0.2271 HM_KDL_IR HMMIR 1 0.132785 0.181484 0.73 0.4721 HM_MTHR_IR POPIR 1 4.461250 3.053229 1.46 0.1581 POP_IRAN LCKIR 1 0.623417 0.167564 3.72 0.0012 LAG CKIR Durbin-Watson 2.022464 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.01448 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KIR Dependent Variable MKIR Label M_KDL_IR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 8892558 2223140 503.02 .0001 Error 22 97231.62 4419.619 Uncorrected 26 8989790 Total Root MSE 66.48021 R-Square 0.98918 Dependent Mean 559.69231 Adj R-Sq 0.98722 Coeff Var 11.87799 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMKIR 1 -0.06288 0.075080 -0.84 0.4113 HM_KDL_IR PRODKIR 1 -1.07570 0.277109 -3.88 0.0008 PROD_KDL_IR CKIR 1 1.106310 0.118526 9.33 .0001 KON_KDL_IR LMKIR 1 0.086497 0.110730 0.78 0.4430 LAG MKIR Durbin-Watson 1.542655 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.221771 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_MMIR Dependent Variable HMMIR Label HM_MTHR_IR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 11241176 3747059 366.87 .0001 Error 23 234910.1 10213.48 Uncorrected 26 11476086 Total Root MSE 101.06178 R-Square 0.97953 Dependent Mean 657.25047 Adj R-Sq 0.97686 Coeff Var 15.37645 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMW 1 0.295125 0.127441 2.32 0.0298 H_MTHR_W TMMIR 1 5.422256 2.130144 2.55 0.0181 TM_MTHR_IRAN LHMMIR 1 0.465672 0.169194 2.75 0.0113 LAG HMMIR Durbin-Watson 1.906567 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.014004 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DISAPPR_MIR Dependent Variable CMIR Label KON_MTHR_IR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 580743.5 193581.2 20.14 .0001 Error 23 221026.5 9609.848 Uncorrected 26 801770.0 Total Root MSE 98.02983 R-Square 0.72433 Dependent Mean 133.15385 Adj R-Sq 0.68837 Coeff Var 73.62148 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label RHMMKIR 1 -7.97627 59.89504 -0.13 0.8952 POPIR 1 1.273806 1.376983 0.93 0.3645 POP_IRAN LCMIR 1 0.527630 0.185656 2.84 0.0092 LAG CMIR Durbin-Watson 2.045131 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.02257 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_MIR Dependent Variable MMIR Label M_MTHR_IR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 924676.4 308225.5 605.99 .0001 Error 23 11698.59 508.6343 Uncorrected 26 936375.0 Total Root MSE 22.55292 R-Square 0.98751 Dependent Mean 136.88462 Adj R-Sq 0.98588 Coeff Var 16.47586 NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares. Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label HMMIR 1 -0.00270 0.020448 -0.13 0.8959 HM_MTHR_IR PRODMIR 1 -0.92889 0.895150 -1.04 0.3102 PROD_MTHR_IR CMIR 1 1.144923 0.041381 27.67 .0001 KON_MTHR_IR Durbin-Watson 1.39649 Number of Observations 26 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.267211 Lampiran 8. Program Validasi Historis Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia PROC SIMNLIN DATA=TESIS DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA; EXOGENOUS TREN PRODCOW HCOW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI ERI PESI STOKSI LPOPI LASIN LASIS LASIR L3LASIN L3LASIS L3LASIR ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD ERCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS LPOPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID IPID POPID TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR; PARM B0 241.8316 B1 - 0.02120 B2 0.023313 B3 0.474437 C0 182.7619 C1 - 0.03417 C2 0.051413 C3 0.487471 D0 143.6909 D1 - 0.01026 D2 0.062441 D3 0.539133 E0 380.0096 E1 - 0.15911 E2 0.243896 I0 0.089329 I1 - 1.12078 I2 0.858698 J0 243.9014 J1 0.116390 J2 - 0.21126 J3 - 0.43739 J4 0.804695 K0 72.46956 K1 0.013851 K2 - 0.24278 K3 0.778981 L0 0.000224 L1 - 0.00153 L2 - 0.00406 L3 0.992763 M0 0.001040 M1 - 0.00015 M2 0.88328 N0 0.000087 N1 0.000197 N2 - 0.00817 N3 - 0.00149 N4 0.584751 O0 4.662357 O1 0.157079 O2 - 464.243 O3 0.300709 P0 0.745129 P1 - 0.00176 P2 - 11.0698 P3 0.167411 Q0 1.405829 Q1 - 453.433 Q2 - 57.9413 Q3 0.008254 Q4 0.896068 R0 - 3450.09 R1 - 0.05438 R2 961.7034 R3 23.42292 R4 0.695843 S0 15.75933 S1 0.855158 S2 - 14.0676 S3 - 0.00528 S4 0.244956 T0 0.069857 T1 - 6.67733 T2 0.812459 T3 0.388918 T4 0.465425 U0 351.7565 U1 0.110846 U2 - 6.46154 U3 - 3.66984 U4 0.454223 V0 0.507638 V1 - 0.14320 V2 0.169727 W0 - 723.471 W1 0.229701 W2 - 0.41627 W3 100.4155 W4 0.440950 W5 0.116749 X0 - 903.105 X1 - 0.19697 X2 - 2.17634 X3 11.50532 X4 0.683214 Y0 39.59796 Y1 0.870944 Y2 - 4.28929 Y3 - 0.01236 Y4 0.066310 Z0 127.8220 Z1 0.104366 Z2 - 2.90880 Z3 0.521371 AA0 - 2039.83 AA1 - 41.4378 AA2 131.3494 AA3 66.68074 AB0 0.163538 AB1 - 0.41667 AB2 10.76324 AB3 0.909194 AC0 107.3276 AC1 0.550047 AC2 0.183935 AD0 0.162831 AD1 - 0.32333 AD2 0.399137 AD3 0.621045 AE0 - 225.772 AE1 5.172079 AE2 6.433590 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan AF0 - 27.2357 AF1 0.065140 AF2 - 0.22921 AF3 - 2.04815 AF4 0.794059 AF5 0.011916 AG0 343.4989 AG1 0.457125 AG2 2.036429 AH0 0.855283 AH1 8.448790 AH2 - 0.42908 AI0 0.680184 AI1 7.412285 CG0 0.519024 CG1 - 0.12344 CG2 0.206917 CH0 7.249052 CH1 1.065817 CH2 0.013472 CH3 - 0.02424 CH4 0.066539 AJ0 441.8021 AJ1 65.10564 AJ2 - 0.27971 AJ3 0.077960 AK0 0.066989 AK1 - 0.05650 AK2 0.431599 AL0 56.36600 AL1 - 0.05946 AL2 - 0.52080 AL3 0.644072 AL4 0.230138 AM0 - 70.3891 AM1 0.709185 AM2 25.79298 AN0 - 3516.09 AN1 - 0.79295 AN2 - 6.57461 AN3 0.299084 AN4 16.70166 AO0 0.636471 AO1 0.079828 AO2 - 0.15465 AO3 0.542992 CE0 0.990814 CE1 - 0.00435 CE2 0.015832 CE3 0.063175 AP0 5.123725 AP1 - 0.32645 AP2 0.583089 AP3 0.414745 AQ0 - 169.133 AQ1 - 0.00666 AQ2 4.062721 AQ3 1.131358 AQ4 0.797579 AR0 0.689993 AR1 0.334226 AS0 - 799.987 AS1 - 0.30548 AS2 12.74509 AS3 0.433641 AT0 2310.386 AT1 - 0.13369 AT2 - 9.75469 AT3 - 39.9513 AT4 784.9596 AT5 0.463356 AU0 0.359474 AU1 7.690904 AU2 0.345766 AV0 353.3033 AV1 - 2.37764 AV2 - 27.9014 AV3 82.52237 AW0 216.4328 AW1 - 0.00951 AW2 - 14.3876 AW3 0.112771 AW4 0.369714 AX0 175.0135 AX1 0.563480 AX2 4.251363 AY0 133.9674 AY1 0.746373 AY2 1.444464 AZ0 0.798185 AZ1 7.037101 BA0 336.7428 BA1 0.486808 BA2 2.017002 BB0 - 0.77048 BB1 0.615640 BB2 0.503863 BB3 1400.688 BB4 0.026403 BB5 0.374336 BC0 - 825.988 BC1 - 732.909 BC2 0.478277 BC3 0.118464 BD0 - 10473.3 BD1 - 1.76015 BD2 1.236793 BD3 590.7302 BD4 0.040975 BD5 24.40434 BD6 0.604560 BE0 - 5268.47 BE1 - 0.59224 BE2 0.768582 BE3 15.21893 BE4 10.89263 BE5 0.908926 BF0 - 0.30298 BF1 - 91.3233 BF2 0.702171 BG0 - 0.23946 BG1 0.399460 BG2 0.871883 BH0 154.2939 BH1 - 0.72911 BH2 0.986633 BI0 30.12616 BI1 - 0.18123 BI2 - 0.30879 BI3 0.761962 BI4 0.650198 BJ0 - 13375.0 BJ1 - 2.99543 BJ2 0.175097 BJ3 1.794438 BJ4 145.2790 BJ5 1.223164 BJ6 3.447816 BK0 - 1707.87 BK1 - 0.16965 BK2 0.014549 BK3 1.844396 BK4 0.796551 BL0 0.854980 BL1 2.071625 BM0 264.6960 BM1 0.494498 BM2 0.215192 BN0 127.0903 BN1 0.605879 BN2 3.956275 BO0 - 6128.81 BO1 - 0.00352 BO2 0.257495 BO3 0.114741 BO4 6.436799 BO5 0.362579 BP0 - 0.29663 BP1 0.346245 BP2 0.593307 BQ0 41.04146 BQ1 - 0.02139 BQ2 - 0.44848 BQ3 0.457126 BQ4 0.288498 BR0 274.0120 BR1 - 0.12175 BR2 1.029408 BS0 10490.41 BS1 - 91.5287 BS2 - 180.130 BS3 - 70.7774 BT0 42.28541 BT1 0.665738 BT2 23.18987 BT3 0.218731 BU0 0.748755 BU1 5.162068 BV0 - 10086.8 BV1 - 1.17667 BV2 0.756096 BV3 11.43984 BW0 - 4107.24 BW1 - 0.68285 BW2 0.414404 BW3 57.07257 BW4 1.570795 BW5 0.716798 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan BX0 64.95581 BX1 - 0.07863 BX2 - 0.96035 BX3 0.986032 BY0 0.870527 BY1 2.671920 BZ0 0.295125 BZ1 5.422256 BZ2 0.465672 CA0 - 0.22872 CA1 0.132785 CA2 4.461250 CA3 0.623417 CB0 - 839.868 CB1 - 12.2172 CB2 13.86352 CB3 2.248393 CB4 0.497034 CC0 - 0.06288 CC1 - 1.07570 CC2 1.106310 CC3 0.086497 CD0 - 0.00270 CD1 - 0.92889 CD2 1.144923 ; HSW = B0+B1XSW+B2MSW+B3LHSW; HKW = C0+C1XKW+C2MKW+C3LHKW; HRW = D0+D1XRW+D2MRW+D3LHRW; HMW = E0+E1XMW+E2MMW; LASMIN = I0LHESI+I1RHCPI+I2L3LASIN; LASMIS = J0+J1LHESI+J2RHCPI+J3USPI+J4L3LASIS; LASMIR = K0+K1LHDSI+K2USPI+K3LLASIR; YIESIN = L0HESI+L1RHCPI+L2DLASMIN+L3LYIESIN; YIESIS = M0HESI+M1DLASMIS+M2LYIESIS; YIESIR = N0HDSI+N1LHDSI+N2RHCPI+N3DLASMIR+N4LYIESIR; HDSI = O0HESI+O1ERI+O2RTSDSI+O3LHDSI; HESI = P0HSW+P1ERI+P2RXSI+P3LHESI; XSI = Q0HESI+Q1RHDSI+Q2PESI+Q3ERI+Q4SXSI; CSI = R0+R1HDSI+R2RHCOW+R3POPI+R4LCSI; HESM = S0+S1HSW+S2ERM+S3XSM+S4LHESM; XSM = T0HESM+T1PESM+T2STOKSM+T3PRODSM+T4LXSM; HEKB = U0+U1HKW+U2ERB+U3PEKB+U4LHEKB; HDKB = V0HEKB+V1SDKB+V2CKB; XKB = W0+W1HEKB+W2HDKB+W3ERB+W4PRODKB+W5LXKB; CKB = X0+X1HDKB+X2RRHDKBRHCOW+X3POPB+X4LCKB; HEKA = Y0+Y1HKW+Y2ERA+Y3XKA+Y4LHEKA; HDKA = Z0+Z1HEKA+Z2RSDCKA+Z3LHDKA; CKA = AA0+AA1RHDKA+AA2RHCOW+AA3POPA; XKA = AB0HEKA+AB1HDKA+AB2ERA+AB3PRODKA; HEMA = AC0+AC1HMW+AC2LHEMA; HDMA = AD0HEMA+AD1SDMA+AD2CMA+AD3LHDMA; CMA = AE0RHDMKA+AE1HCOW+AE2POPA; XMA = AF0+AF1HEMA+AF2HDMA+AF3PEMA+AF4PRODMA+AF5LXMA; HEKUSA = AG0+AG1HKW+AG2SEKUSA; HERUSA = AH0HRW+AH1SERUSA+AH2XRUSA; HMRUSA = AI0HRW+AI1TMRUSA; HDKUSA = CG0HEKUSA+CG1SDKUSA+CG2CKUSA; HDRUSA = CH0+CH1HERUSA+CH2HMRUSA+CH3SDRUSA+CH4CRUSA; XKUSA = AJ0+AJ1RHEKUSA+AJ2HDKUSA+AJ3PRODKUSA; XRUSA = AK0HERUSA+AK1HDRUSA+AK2PRODRUSA; MRUSA = AL0+AL1HMRUSA+AL2STOKRUSA+AL3CRUSA+AL4LMRUSA; CKUSA = AM0RHDKUSAHCOW+AM1HDRUSA+AM2POPUSA; CRUSA = AN0+AN1HDRUSA+AN2RHDRUSAHCOW+AN3HDKUSA+AN4POPUSA; HERCD = AO0HRW+AO1SERCD+AO2XRCD+AO3LHERCD; HDRCD = CE0HERCD+CE1PRODRCD+CE2CRCD+CE3LHDRCD; XRCD = AP0RHERCD+AP1HDRCD+AP2PRODRCD+AP3LXRCD; CRCD = AQ0+AQ1HDRCD+AQ2HCOW+AQ3POPCD+AQ4LCRCD; HMSP = AR0HSW+AR1LHMSP; CSP = AS0+AS1HMSP+AS2POPP+AS3LCSP; MSP = AT0+AT1HMSP+AT2ERP+AT3TMSP+AT4RCSP+AT5LMSP; HMMMS = AU0HMW+AU1TMMMS+AU2LHMMMS; MMMS = AV0+AV1RHMMMS+AV2ERMS+AV3RCMMS; Lampiran 8. Lanjutan CMMS = AW0+AW1HMMMS+AW2ERMS+AW3POPMS+AW4LCMMS; HMKEU = AX0+AX1HKW+AX2TMKEU; HMSEU = AY0+AY1HSW+AY2TMSEU; HMREU = AZ0HRW+AZ1TMREU; HMMEU = BA0+BA1HMW+BA2TMMEU; CKEU = BB0HMKEU+BB1HMREU+BB2HMMEU+BB3RHCOW+BB4IPEU +BB5LCKEU; CMEU = BC0+BC1RHMMREU+BC2HMKEU+BC3IPEU; CSEU = BD0+BD1HMSEU+BD2HMMEU+BD3RHCOW+BD4IPEU+BD5POPEU +BD6LCSEU; CREU = BE0+BE1HMREU+BE2HMSEU+BE3HCOW+BE4POPEU+BE5LCREU; MKEU = BF0HMKEU+BF1EREU+BF2CKEU; MSEU = BG0HMSEU+BG1CSEU+BG2LMSEU; MREU = BH0+BH1HMREU+BH2CREU; MMEU = BI0+BI1HMMEU+BI2PRODMEU+BI3CMEU+BI4LMMEU; HMSC = BL0HSW+BL1TMSC; HMKC = BM0+BM1HKW+BM2TMKC; HMRC = BN0+BN1HRW+BN2TMRC; CSC = BJ0+BJ1HMSC+BJ2HMKC+BJ3HMRC+BJ4HCOW+BJ5IPC+BJ6POPC; CKC = BK0+BK1HMKC+BK2IPC+BK3POPC+BK4LCKC; CRC = BO0+BO1HMRC+BO2HMKC+BO3IPC+BO4POPC+BO5LCRC; MKC = BP0HMKC+BP1CKC+BP2LMKC; MRC = BQ0+BQ1HMRC+BQ2PRODRC+BQ3CRC+BQ4LMRC; MSC = BR0+BR1HMSC+BR2CSC; HMSID = BT0+BT1HSW+BT2RCSID+BT3LHMSID; HMKID = BU0HKW+BU1TMKID; CSID = BV0+BV1HMSID+BV2IPID+BV3POPID; CKID = BW0+BW1HMKID+BW2HMSID+BW3HCOW+BW4POPID+BW5LCKID; MSID = BS0+BS1RRHMSIDRCSID+BS2TMSID+BS3ERID; MKID = BX0+BX1HMKID+BX2PRODKID+BX3CKID; HMKIR = BY0HKW+BY1TMKIR; HMMIR = BZ0HMW+BZ1TMMIR+BZ2LHMMIR; CKIR = CA0HMKIR+CA1HMMIR+CA2POPIR+CA3LCKIR; CMIR = CB0+CB1RHMMKIR+CB2HCOW+CB3POPIR+CB4LCMIR; MKIR = CC0HMKIR+CC1PRODKIR+CC2CKIR+CC3LMKIR; MMIR = CD0HMMIR+CD1PRODMIR+CD2CMIR; PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW; XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; XMW = XMA+XMRW; MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI; SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB; SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA; Lampiran 8. Lanjutan LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS; LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR; LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI = LAGXSI; LHCOW = LAGHCOW LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI=LAGXSI; LXSM = LAGXSM; LMSC = LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU; LMSID = LAGMSID LMSP = LAGMSP; LCSC = LAGCSC; LCSEU = LAGCSEU; LCSID = LAGCSID; LCSP = LAGCSP; LHSW = LAGHSW; LHESI = LAGHESI; LHESM = LAGHESM; LHDSI = LAGHDSI; LHMSC = LAGHMSC; LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU; LHMSID = LAGHMSID; LHMSP = LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA; LXKB = LAGXKB; LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC; LMKID = LAGMKID; LMKEU = LAGMKEU; LMKIR = LAGMKIR; LCKA = LAGCKA; LCKB = LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA; LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID = LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU; LCKIR = LAGCKIR; LHKW = LAGHKW; LHEKA = LAGHEKA; LHEKB = LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC = LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID; LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU; LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD; LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA; LMREU = LAGMREU; LMRC = LAGMRC; LCRCD = LAGCRCD; LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA; LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC; LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD; LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA; LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU; LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU; LMMMS = LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA; LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR; LHMW = LAGHMW; LHEMA = LAGHEMA; LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU; LHMMMS = LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR; LHDKB = LAGHDKB; LHDKA = LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA; LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; RANGE TAHUN 2003 TO 2008 ; RUN ; Lampiran 9. Hasil Validasi Historis Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 184 Endogenous 97 Exogenous 87 Parameters 326 Range Variable Tahun Equations 99 Number of Statements 180 Program Lag Length 1 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= TESIS Solution Summary Variables Solved 97 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range Tahun First 2003 Last 2008 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 5.37E-10 Maximum Iterations 4 Total Iterations 18 Average Iterations 3 Observations Processed Read 7 Lagged 1 Solved 6 First 24 Last 29 Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label HSW 6 6 512.8 86.8122 562.6 62.8084 H_SWT_W HKW 6 6 645.5 114.0 571.6 15.5620 H_KDL_W HRW 6 6 734.2 76.5855 664.9 25.2355 H_RAPE_W HMW 6 6 739.9 142.2 690.7 54.3365 H_MTHR_W LASMIN 6 6 566.3 54.5095 561.4 38.4835 L_TM_PBN LASMIS 6 6 2131.1 354.7 2061.0 108.6 L_TM_PBS LASMIR 6 6 1726.4 286.3 1730.2 296.6 L_TM_PIR YIESIN 6 6 3.3827 0.7236 3.1787 0.3214 YELD_PBN YIESIS 6 6 3.4062 0.4664 3.2843 0.2102 YELD_PBS YIESIR 6 6 2.9263 0.3252 2.7117 0.1540 YELD_PR PRODSI 6 6 14373.0 3683.3 13226.0 1379.1 PRDS_INA HDSI 6 6 5027.7 575.4 4520.8 84.7115 HD_S_INA HESI 6 6 431.2 83.3701 477.6 56.2606 HE_S_INA SDSI 6 6 4829.5 1775.7 4925.8 639.2 SD_S_INA CSI 6 6 4348.3 411.1 4366.6 400.6 C_S_INA SXSI 6 6 11279.1 3766.6 10113.8 1501.9 SX-S_INA XSI 6 6 10797.9 2962.4 9554.5 1343.9 X_S_INA HESM 6 6 428.2 103.8 493.2 59.0148 HE_S_MAS XSM 6 6 13404.7 1355.4 13089.0 1553.4 X_S_MAS HEKB 6 6 652.7 124.6 630.1 14.7962 HE_K_BRL HDKB 6 6 314.5 47.1759 355.8 14.6834 HD_K_BRL SDKB 6 6 3770.2 486.8 3802.2 284.2 SD_K_BRL CKB 6 6 3458.5 427.3 3419.6 233.0 C_K_BRL XKB 6 6 2403.3 215.5 2371.3 80.1473 X_K_BRL HEKA 6 6 553.2 119.6 491.9 13.7610 HE_K_ARG HDKA 6 6 434.2 66.7580 351.1 13.1958 HD_K_ARG HEMA 6 6 594.7 70.0778 599.8 35.2578 HE_M_ARG HDMA 6 6 289.3 42.8746 279.9 14.1418 HD_M_ARG SDKA 6 6 1021.2 330.8 950.7 112.5 SD_K_ARG SDMA 6 6 404.3 61.0694 423.8 39.2873 SD_M_ARG CKA 6 6 646.3 324.6 542.4 47.9423 C_K_ARG CMA 6 6 346.5 47.3487 389.2 7.5433 C_M_ARG XKA 6 6 5278.7 723.2 5349.2 659.1 X_K_ARG XMA 6 6 1086.0 146.1 1066.5 142.7 X_M_ARG HEKUSA 6 6 618.1 82.8611 635.7 16.2804 HE_K_USA HERUSA 6 6 699.7 103.4 691.1 22.5908 HE_R_USA HMRUSA 6 6 663.5 85.2603 626.8 22.8532 HM_R_USA HDRUSA 6 6 799.2 100.6 790.2 23.2554 HD_R_USA HDKUSA 6 6 851.2 129.0 719.4 93.0003 HD_K_USA MRUSA 6 6 780.8 257.1 752.1 79.8452 M_R_USA SDKUSA 6 6 9009.7 675.5 8853.7 815.7 SD_K_USA SDRUSA 6 6 1056.2 330.4 1035.5 133.7 SD_R_USA CKUSA 6 6 7988.5 373.3 7164.2 250.3 C_K_USA CRUSA 6 6 986.5 329.2 946.4 90.9785 C_R_USA XKUSA 6 6 770.8 327.3 926.8 68.7315 X_K_USA XRUSA 6 6 177.7 62.4873 169.6 32.1530 X_R_USA HERCD 6 6 623.5 95.1236 595.9 30.7392 HE_R_CD HDRCD 6 6 664.6 80.4034 631.2 32.3062 HD_R_CD CRCD 6 6 383.7 42.6177 445.0 5.9737 C_R_CD XRCD 6 6 1156.5 163.0 1018.7 217.9 X_R_CD HMSP 6 6 451.7 69.3457 563.7 65.7654 HM_S_PKT CSP 6 6 1786.2 343.6 1681.9 121.0 C_S_PKT MSP 6 6 1782.8 349.0 1785.7 267.0 M_S_PKT HMMMS 6 6 590.9 72.5731 581.4 54.4088 HM_M_MS CMMS 6 6 241.7 68.9715 203.5 39.4944 C_M_MS MMMS 6 6 241.0 68.5915 221.9 36.8400 M_M_MS Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label HMKEU 6 6 631.8 83.0240 606.7 8.6615 HM_K_EU HMSEU 6 6 541.7 58.8013 580.3 45.9824 HM_S_EU HMREU 6 6 739.8 82.3895 689.7 18.5870 HM_R_EU HMMEU 6 6 720.8 87.3663 715.1 26.9639 HM_M_EU CKEU 6 6 1675.1 78.1868 1662.8 75.6275 C_K_E_U CSEU 6 6 2740.7 144.8 2640.9 70.2554 C_S_EU CREU 6 6 2449.7 48.7441 2435.5 211.0 C_R_EU CMEU 6 6 2051.4 62.9239 2036.4 170.6 C_M_EU MKEU 6 6 1287.4 527.0 912.7 58.0337 M_K_EU MSEU 6 6 5453.3 851.8 5036.8 511.8 M_S_EU MREU 6 6 2189.7 772.4 2054.4 196.5 M_R_EU MMEU 6 6 2045.0 439.2 1963.7 315.1 M_M_EU HMSC 6 6 491.8 76.8346 525.9 48.4792 HM_S_C HMKC 6 6 564.6 85.7398 553.2 7.8212 HM_K_C HMRC 6 6 612.7 58.8222 599.8 46.9929 HM_R_C CSC 6 6 4617.2 797.2 4335.6 814.5 C_S_C CKC 6 6 3090.9 148.1 2976.9 176.9 C_K_C CRC 6 6 4556.5 297.4 4567.7 277.0 C_R_C MSC 6 6 4956.8 688.6 4673.1 832.6 M_S_C MKC 6 6 2250.0 587.0 1821.2 318.5 M_K_C MRC 6 6 260.6 133.3 211.2 167.4 M_R_C HMSID 6 6 442.7 79.3509 530.0 51.0814 HM_S_ID HMKID 6 6 549.0 99.7131 524.3 27.2397 HM_K_ID CSID 6 6 3932.5 756.0 3962.0 443.3 C_S_ID CKID 6 6 2504.5 358.3 2373.1 172.6 C_K_ID MSID 6 6 3907.0 826.2 4123.7 699.5 M_S_ID MKID 6 6 1363.0 462.2 1222.5 169.7 M_K_ID HMKIR 6 6 583.1 77.3203 547.3 19.1773 HM_K_IR HMMIR 6 6 639.2 100.8 597.3 67.4164 HM_M_IR CKIR 6 6 749.3 55.6657 729.0 21.4364 C_K_IR CMIR 6 6 131.7 82.1819 141.1 22.4852 C_M_IR MKIR 6 6 634.5 82.9765 641.4 69.8878 M_K_IR MMIR 6 6 117.8 80.9924 142.9 26.1090 M_M_IR XSW 6 6 27491.0 4643.1 25932.1 3220.2 X_SWT_W MSW 6 6 26917.2 4931.5 26436.7 4720.2 M_SWT_W XKW 6 6 10779.8 987.2 10974.2 1079.6 X_KDL_W MKW 6 6 10360.1 888.8 9423.0 660.9 M_KDL_W XRW 6 6 3428.7 877.4 3282.9 920.0 X_RAPE_W MRW 6 6 3496.1 1016.9 3282.7 402.5 M_RAPE_W XMW 6 6 4146.6 751.6 4127.1 774.3 X_MTHR_W MMW 6 6 4041.7 597.1 3966.3 383.8 M_MTHR_W Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square Label HSW 6 49.7296 11.8238 68.3155 15.3112 89.2832 21.3363 -.2693 H_SWT_W HKW 6 -73.8499 -8.9309 114.7 16.8255 134.5 18.3878 -.6718 H_KDL_W HRW 6 -69.3046 -8.9044 69.3046 8.9044 87.0803 10.7530 -.5514 H_RAPE_W HMW 6 -49.1862 -4.1557 101.5 12.8497 140.1 16.1602 -.1641 H_MTHR_W LASMIN 6 -4.9212 -0.5640 23.4910 4.1508 28.1365 5.0697 0.6803 L_TM_PBN LASMIS 6 -70.1342 -1.3673 246.2 11.7308 273.1 13.0779 0.2884 L_TM_PBS LASMIR 6 3.8068 0.3406 68.5074 4.2989 81.7144 5.3433 0.9022 L_TM_PR YIESIN 6 -0.2039 -3.4210 0.4549 13.6974 0.4974 15.2079 0.4331 YELD_PBN YIESIS 6 -0.1219 -2.5584 0.3011 8.8047 0.3246 9.4122 0.4186 YELD_PBS YIESIR 6 -0.2146 -6.2757 0.3494 11.3540 0.4113 13.0434 -.9197 YELD_PR PRODSI 6 -1147.0 -4.6529 2212.7 14.3560 2506.0 15.2150 0.4445 PRDS_INA HDSI 6 -506.9 -9.0893 596.5 11.2457 738.5 13.1615 -.9763 HD_S_INA HESI 6 46.4280 13.7250 64.0363 17.6732 84.6839 25.0854 -.2381 HE_S_INA SDSI 6 96.3020 15.0383 1128.8 32.0767 1331.4 44.9617 0.3254 SD_S_INA CSI 6 18.2700 0.4513 39.3436 0.9244 43.6448 1.0403 0.9865 C_S_IINA SXSI 6 -1165.3 -4.9247 2198.7 18.0841 2500.6 18.9045 0.4711 SX_S_INA XSI 6 -1243.3 -7.6811 1869.4 17.4851 2039.2 18.9864 0.4314 X_S_INA HESM 6 64.9917 21.5934 102.2 28.6838 127.9 39.1486 -.8250 HE_S_MAS XSM 6 -315.6 -2.4133 568.4 4.3411 670.0 5.2594 0.7068 X_S_MAS HEKB 6 -22.5959 -0.7166 92.8083 13.8359 112.4 15.8891 0.0231 HE_K_BRL HDKB 6 41.3142 15.3037 48.6085 17.2815 60.3639 22.3806 -.9647 HD_K_BRL SDKB 6 31.9941 1.4587 194.0 5.1731 215.4 5.7560 0.7649 SD_K_BRL CKB 6 -38.9130 -0.5386 178.0 5.0069 204.3 5.6287 0.7257 C_K_BRL XKB 6 -31.9941 -0.6426 194.0 8.1550 215.4 9.1513 -.1992 X_K_BRL HEKA 6 -61.3114 -7.6384 102.2 17.2595 126.7 19.5635 -.3462 HE_K_ARG HDKA 6 -83.1362 -17.7498 84.4386 18.1516 97.0498 20.3800 -1.536 HD_K_ARG HEMA 6 5.0155 1.6549 34.4139 6.3333 43.8955 8.7121 0.5292 HE_M_ARG HDMA 6 -9.4169 -1.5075 32.2706 11.5871 36.3583 13.3879 0.1370 HD_M_ARG SDKA 6 -70.5011 0.2686 264.0 23.5425 320.1 26.0174 -.1237 SD_K_ARG SDMA 6 19.4715 6.7278 47.1453 13.1052 55.3481 17.2211 0.0143 SD_M_ARG CKA 6 -104.0 -1.7953 210.0 28.5366 276.5 31.5855 0.1294 C_K_ARG CMA 6 42.6586 14.5615 45.3069 15.2423 62.7587 23.2496 -1.108 C_M_ARG XKA 6 70.5011 1.6021 264.0 5.1265 320.1 6.3220 0.7649 X_K_ARG XMA 6 -19.4715 -1.6455 47.1453 4.4329 55.3481 5.2986 0.8277 X_M_ARG HERUSA 6 -8.6098 0.4229 78.7998 11.3524 87.9534 12.7745 0.1315 HE_R_USA HMRUSA 6 -36.6379 -4.3227 72.9212 10.7057 81.4462 11.5698 -.0950 HM_R_USA HDRUSA 6 -9.0089 0.0332 79.0577 9.8773 83.7581 10.3715 0.1683 HD_R_USA HDKUSA 6 -131.8 -13.4948 178.2 20.3670 203.5 22.3802 -1.988 HD_K_USA MRUSA 6 -28.6914 2.3107 137.9 17.5156 169.1 20.8969 0.4810 M_R_USA SDKUSA 6 -156.0 -1.8102 269.5 3.0280 305.6 3.4625 0.7544 SD_K_USA SDRUSA 6 -20.6413 2.5523 176.0 15.8971 199.2 16.5494 0.5640 SD_R_USA CKUSA 6 -824.3 -10.1385 850.1 10.4834 929.3 11.3987 -6.435 C_K_USA CRUSA 6 -40.0728 1.7511 194.6 18.4348 226.8 19.2874 0.4305 C_R_USA XKUSA 6 156.0 36.3753 269.5 45.4145 305.6 57.1163 -.0460 X_K_USA XRUSA 6 -8.0501 2.9246 50.3183 25.9654 61.7020 28.6604 -.1700 X_R_USA HERCD 6 -27.6021 -3.0178 64.5809 9.9931 74.5802 11.0546 0.2623 HE_R_CD HDRCD 6 -33.4191 -4.2426 53.5243 7.6941 63.7681 8.8570 0.2452 HD_R_CD CRCD 6 61.3099 17.1886 68.1126 18.6674 75.0330 20.9967 -2.720 C_R_CD XRCD 6 -137.8 -12.5278 137.8 12.5278 158.3 14.3799 -.1315 X_R_CD HMSP 6 112.0 28.6029 135.8 32.9842 160.5 40.1218 -5.430 HM_S_PKT CSP 6 -104.3 -3.7769 184.8 9.8491 247.1 12.4977 0.3796 C_S_PKT MSP 6 2.8827 0.9800 77.1093 4.3415 100.7 5.3139 0.9002 M_S_PKT HMMMS 6 -9.5753 -1.0128 37.9575 6.7312 45.7823 8.4321 0.5224 HM_M_MS CMMS 6 -38.1971 -13.4799 44.0809 16.2166 55.2898 18.3937 0.2289 C_M_MS MMMS 6 -19.1331 -4.2965 35.6790 14.7686 43.7250 18.0942 0.5124 M_M_MS Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square Label HEKUSA 6 17.6305 4.3259 66.7245 11.1124 76.8293 13.1940 -.0317 HE_K_USA HMKEU 6 -25.0866 -2.5524 67.0031 10.2184 82.7491 12.2543 -.1921 HM_K_EU HMSEU 6 38.6327 8.4441 79.2902 15.2644 85.1121 17.1224 -1.514 HM_S_EU HMREU 6 -50.0582 -5.6585 77.5901 9.9034 100.8 12.5129 -.7977 HM_R_EU HMMEU 6 -5.6639 0.2313 60.1578 8.5426 66.2736 9.6874 0.3095 HM_M_EU CKEU 6 -12.3315 -0.5923 77.0600 4.5416 92.2974 5.3986 -.6722 C_K_EU CSEU 6 -99.7526 -3.4499 138.1 4.9555 161.4 5.7261 -.4906 C_S_EU CREU 6 -14.2018 -0.5378 183.2 7.4440 200.9 8.1298 -19.39 C_R_EU CMEU 6 -14.9462 -0.8310 88.3530 4.2864 111.6 5.3858 -2.774 C_M_EU MKEU 6 -374.7 -17.5257 488.8 32.6642 603.8 36.4001 -.5754 M_K_EU MSEU 6 -416.5 -6.8326 474.2 8.2371 539.6 9.1385 0.5184 M_S_EU MREU 6 -135.3 2.6955 519.1 25.4237 562.7 28.0644 0.3630 M_R_EU MMEU 6 -81.3382 -2.4498 196.8 9.5005 229.7 10.5162 0.6719 M_M_EU HMSC 6 34.0799 9.0542 64.0641 14.7605 78.9366 19.6805 -.2666 HM_S_C HMKC 6 -11.3740 0.0132 66.6296 11.9950 80.7251 14.9263 -.0637 HM_K_C HMRC 6 -12.9336 -1.8755 28.8685 4.7412 30.3349 4.9858 0.6809 HM_R_C CSC 6 -281.6 -5.9213 343.1 7.0642 465.1 9.3162 0.5916 C_S_C CKC 6 -114.0 -3.6977 136.6 4.4161 143.2 4.6173 -.1223 C_K_C CRC 6 11.2188 0.2801 35.4923 0.8198 50.1640 1.2009 0.9659 C_R_C MSC 6 -283.6 -5.8856 381.9 7.6716 471.0 9.3535 0.4385 M_S_C MKC 6 -428.8 -15.0922 584.3 25.0097 651.3 27.1142 -.4771 M_K_C MRC 6 -49.3913 -21.1961 128.4 55.3480 137.1 57.9408 -.2698 M_R_C HMSID 6 87.2942 24.0803 123.7 30.8644 139.6 36.7166 -2.712 HM_S_ID HMKID 6 -24.6641 -2.5797 59.9308 10.3859 73.4825 12.1037 0.3483 HM_K_ID CSID 6 29.5410 2.3863 397.6 10.4862 445.8 12.2624 0.5827 C_S_ID CKID 6 -131.4 -4.0206 269.8 10.5663 296.4 11.1944 0.1790 C_K_ID MSID 6 216.7 7.1823 478.7 13.7353 542.1 17.0066 0.4834 M_S_ID MKID 6 -140.5 -4.5069 267.4 19.1835 309.4 20.3309 0.4624 M_K_ID HMKIR 6 -35.8195 -4.7014 73.2130 12.3770 80.4811 13.4098 -.3001 HM_K_IR HMMIR 6 -41.8405 -5.7736 58.2126 8.9183 62.9583 9.4149 0.5322 HM_M_IR CKIR 6 -20.2960 -2.3945 39.0496 5.1162 42.5803 5.4909 0.2979 C_K_IR CMIR 6 9.4697 71.9308 66.2077 99.9590 69.4691 147.9 0.1425 C_M_IR MKIR 6 6.8579 1.4951 29.8866 4.6968 39.1677 6.3041 0.7326 M_K_IR MMIR 6 25.0681 138.3 63.9260 158.9 71.6784 264.2 0.0601 M_M_IR XSW 6 -1559.0 -5.0160 1765.7 5.9966 2054.0 6.7203 0.7652 X_SWT_W MSW 6 -480.5 -1.7047 609.8 2.2567 732.0 2.6776 0.9736 M_SWT_W XKW 6 194.5 1.7943 298.3 2.7302 366.3 3.3822 0.8348 X_KDL_W MKW 6 -937.2 -8.8271 937.2 8.8271 1098.8 10.1936 -.8337 M_KDL_W XRW 6 -145.8 -4.7199 161.9 5.0991 197.4 6.0562 0.9393 X_RAPE_W MRW 6 -213.4 -1.0527 621.3 18.3187 685.7 20.6143 0.4544 M_RAPE_W XMW 6 -19.4715 -0.5562 47.1453 1.2197 55.3481 1.5228 0.9935 X_MTHR_W MMW 6 -75.4032 -1.2024 231.0 5.6018 259.1 6.1539 0.7741 M_MTHR_W Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U HSW 6 7971.5 0.45 0.31 0.06 0.63 0.06 0.63 0.1721 0.0823 HKW 6 18102.9 -0.55 0.30 0.28 0.42 0.45 0.25 0.2058 0.1098 HRW 6 7583.0 0.82 0.63 0.15 0.21 0.29 0.08 0.1181 0.0621 HMW 6 19628.3 0.16 0.12 0.04 0.84 0.33 0.55 0.1865 0.0970 LASMIN 6 791.7 0.84 0.03 0.06 0.91 0.27 0.70 0.0495 0.0249 LASMIS 6 74599.7 0.70 0.07 0.22 0.72 0.68 0.26 0.1267 0.0647 LASMIR 6 6677.2 0.95 0.00 0.07 0.93 0.01 0.98 0.0468 0.0234 YIESIN 6 0.2474 0.82 0.17 0.25 0.59 0.54 0.29 0.1443 0.0749 YIESIS 6 0.1054 0.78 0.14 0.19 0.67 0.52 0. 34 0.0946 0.0483 YIESIR 6 0.1692 -0.18 0.27 0.22 0.50 0.14 0.58 0.1398 0.0727 PRODSI 6 6280008 0.94 0.21 0.57 0.22 0.70 0.09 0.1698 0.0894 HDSI 6 545314 -0.08 0.47 0.03 0.50 0.37 0.16 0.1461 0.0771 HESI 6 7171.4 0.44 0.30 0.05 0.65 0.09 0.61 0.1934 0.0922 SDSI 6 1772586 0.64 0.01 0.11 0.88 0.61 0.39 0.2613 0 .1324 CSI 6 1904.9 0.99 0.18 0.03 0.79 0.05 0.78 0.0100 0.0050 SXSI 6 6253190 0.93 0.22 0.54 0.24 0 .68 0.10 0.2121 0.1137 XSI 6 4158470 0.94 0.37 0.41 0.22 0.52 0.10 0.1832 0.0982 HESM 6 16370.2 -0.03 0.26 0.19 0.55 0.10 0.64 0.2917 0.1369 XSM 6 448914 0.91 0.22 0.19 0.59 0.07 0.71 0.0498 0.0252 HEKB 6 12643.1 0.32 0.04 0.04 0.92 0.80 0.16 0.1697 0.0870 HDKB 6 3643.8 0.08 0.47 0.03 0.51 0.24 0.29 0.1902 0.0896 SDKB 6 46417.9 0.95 0.02 0.58 0.40 0 .74 0.24 0.0568 0.0283 CKB 6 41722.7 0.95 0.04 0.59 0.37 0.75 0.21 0.0587 0.0296 XKB 6 46417.9 -0.05 0.02 0.15 0.83 0.33 0.65 0.0893 0.0450 HEKA 6 16058.9 -0.08 0.23 0.03 0.74 0.58 0.18 0.2247 0.1200 HDKA 6 9418.7 0.92 0.73 0.21 0.06 0.25 0.01 0.2213 0.1229 HEMA 6 1926.8 0.78 0.01 0.17 0.82 0.52 0.46 0. 0734 0.0366 HDMA 6 1321.9 0.46 0.07 0.02 0.91 0.52 0.41 0.1245 0.0636 SDKA 6 102471 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.89 0.39 0.56 0.3006 0.1584 SDMA 6 3063.4 0.43 0.12 0.05 0.83 0.13 0.75 0.1356 0.0664 CKA 6 76431.3 0.93 0.14 0.70 0.16 0.83 0.02 0.3888 0.2203 CMA 6 3938.6 -0.34 0.46 0.12 0.42 0.34 0.20 0.1797 0.0850 XKA 6 102471 0.88 0.05 0.00 0.95 0.03 0.92 0.0602 0.0299 XMA 6 3063.4 0.92 0.12 0.02 0.86 0.00 0.87 0.0506 0.0255 HEKUSA 6 5902.7 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.95 0.63 0.32 0.1234 0.0610 HERUSA 6 7735.8 0.43 0.01 0.05 0.94 0.70 0.29 0.1246 0.0629 HMRUSA 6 6633.5 0.37 0.20 0.01 0.79 0.49 0.31 0.1219 0.0629 HDRUSA 6 7015.4 0.50 0.01 0.09 0.90 0.71 0.28 0.1041 0.0525 HDKUSA 6 41424.0 -0.15 0.42 0.25 0.33 0.03 0.55 0.2368 0.1285 MRUSA 6 28589.2 0.95 0.03 0.80 0.17 0.92 0.0 6 0.2074 0.1076 SDKUSA 6 93385.3 0.94 0.26 0.29 0.45 0.18 0.56 0.0338 0.0171 SDRUSA 6 39667.2 0.91 0.01 0.57 0.42 0.81 0.18 0.1813 0.0930 CKUSA 6 863605 -0.10 0.79 0.08 0.13 0.01 0.20 0.1162 0.0613 CRUSA 6 51419.6 0.95 0.03 0.79 0.17 0.92 0.05 0.2199 0.1144 XKUSA 6 93385.3 0.64 0.26 0.18 0.56 0.60 0.14 0.3696 0.1741 XRUSA 6 3807.1 0.11 0.02 0.14 0.84 0.20 0.78 0.3307 0.1720 HERCD 6 5562.2 0.72 0.14 0.22 0.65 0.62 0.24 0.1185 0.0608 HDRCD 6 4066.4 0.76 0.27 0.17 0.55 0.47 0.25 0.0954 0.0490 CRCD 6 5630.0 -0.77 0.67 0.22 0.11 0.20 0.13 0.1946 0.0903 XRCD 6 25056.9 0.94 0.76 0.14 0.10 0.10 0 .14 0.1358 0.0718 HMSP 6 25769.0 -0.74 0.49 0.44 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.3520 0.1569 CSP 6 61042.2 0.87 0.18 0.43 0.39 0.68 0.15 0.1362 0.0706 MSP 6 10133.3 0.97 0.00 0.42 0.57 0.55 0.45 0.0556 0.0279 HMMMS 6 2096.0 0.74 0.04 0.00 0.96 0.13 0.83 0.0770 0.0389 CMMS 6 3057.0 0.81 0.48 0.07 0.45 0.24 0.29 0.2214 0.1212 MMMS 6 1911.9 0.83 0.19 0.18 0.63 0.44 0.37 0.1756 0.0924 HMKEU 6 6847.4 -0.34 0.09 0.17 0.74 0.67 0.24 0.1301 0.0666 HMSEU 6 7244.1 -0.25 0.21 0.42 0.37 0.02 0.78 0.1564 0.0756 HMREU 6 10169.1 -0.67 0.25 0.45 0.30 0.33 0.42 0.1356 0.0703 HMMEU 6 4392.2 0.66 0.01 0.18 0.81 0.69 0.30 0.0914 0.0460 CKEU 6 8518.8 0.15 0.02 0.40 0.58 0.00 0.98 0.0550 0.0276 CSEU 6 26042.2 0.32 0.38 0.02 0.60 0.18 0.44 0.0588 0.0300 Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U CREU 6 40363.1 -0.06 0.00 0.95 0.05 0.54 0.45 0.0820 0.0411 CMEU 6 12451.8 0.86 0.02 0.91 0.07 0 .78 0.21 0.0544 0.0273 MKEU 6 364572 0.20 0.39 0.00 0.61 0.50 0.11 0.4393 0.2638 MSEU 6 291144 0.97 0.60 0.28 0.12 0.33 0.07 0.0980 0.0511 MREU 6 316682 0.91 0.06 0.68 0.26 0.87 0.07 0.2446 0.1290 MMEU 6 52746.5 0.86 0.13 0.06 0.82 0.24 0.63 0.1102 0.0564 HMSC 6 6231.0 0.29 0.19 0.09 0.72 0.11 0.71 0. 1589 0.0770 HMKC 6 6516.5 -0.19 0.02 0.07 0.91 0.78 0.20 0.1416 0.0719 HMRC 6 920.2 0.86 0.18 0.01 0.81 0.13 0.69 0.0493 0.0249 CSC 6 216289 0.87 0.37 0.05 0.58 0.00 0.63 0.0995 0.0513 CKC 6 20502.9 0.84 0.63 0.11 0.26 0.03 0.33 0.0463 0.0236 CRC 6 2516.4 0.99 0.05 0.08 0.87 0.14 0.81 0.0110 0.0055 MSC 6 221845 0.87 0.36 0.20 0.43 0.08 0.56 0.0943 0.0484 MKC 6 424133 0.42 0.43 0.01 0.56 0.14 0.42 0.2816 0.1567 MRC 6 18809.0 0.59 0.13 0.35 0.52 0.05 0.82 0.4768 0.2501 HMSID 6 19479.2 -0.66 0.39 0.46 0.15 0.03 0.57 0.3111 0.1423 HMKID 6 5399.7 0.91 0.11 0.62 0.27 0.81 0.08 0.1321 0.0680 CSID 6 198769 0.79 0.00 0.10 0.89 0.41 0.59 0.1117 0.0559 CKID 6 87848.0 0.59 0.20 0.02 0.79 0.33 0.48 0.1173 0.0604 MSID 6 293879 0.76 0.16 0.02 0.82 0.05 0 .79 0.1362 0.0665 MKID 6 95701.5 0.96 0.21 0.66 0.13 0.74 0.05 0.2168 0.1163 HMKIR 6 6477.2 0.04 0.20 0.03 0.77 0.43 0.37 0.1370 0.0709 HMMIR 6 3963.8 0.89 0.44 0.10 0.46 0.23 0.32 0.0975 0.0505 CKIR 6 1813.1 0.79 0.23 0.23 0.54 0.54 0.23 0.0567 0.0288 CMIR 6 4826.0 0.43 0.02 0.03 0.95 0.62 0.37 0.4584 0.2362 MKIR 6 1534.1 0.86 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.09 0.88 0.0613 0.0305 MMIR 6 5137.8 0.43 0.12 0.01 0.86 0.49 0.39 0.5153 0.2524 XSW 6 4219117 1.00 0.58 0.39 0.03 0.40 0.02 0.0738 0.0381 MSW 6 535875 0.99 0.43 0.05 0.52 0.07 0.50 0.0268 0.0135 XKW 6 134191 0.95 0.28 0.13 0.59 0.05 0.67 0.0339 0.0168 MKW 6 1207296 0.71 0.73 0.00 0.27 0.04 0.24 0.1057 0.0554 XRW 6 38969.3 0.99 0.55 0.06 0.39 0.04 0.42 0.0561 0.0286 MRW 6 470189 0.84 0.10 0.36 0.54 0. 67 0.23 0.1896 0.0991 XMW 6 3063.4 1.00 0.12 0.16 0.71 0.14 0.74 0.0132 0.0066 MMW 6 67107.4 0.94 0.08 0.39 0.53 0.56 0.35 0.0635 0.0321 Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U HSW 6 0.0396 0.63 0.30 0.15 0.55 0.00 0.70 1.0069 0.4373 HKW 6 0.0470 0.25 0.30 0.07 0.62 0.11 0.58 1.1226 0.7117 HRW 6 0.0157 0.78 0.65 0.06 0.29 0.19 0.16 0.9895 0.6592 HMW 6 0.0378 0.45 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.26 0.61 0.9143 0.6136 LASMIN 6 0.00215 0.95 0.05 0.57 0.39 0.73 0.23 0.5067 0.3209 LASMIS 6 0.0187 0.66 0.01 0.81 0.19 0.49 0.50 1.2094 0.4547 LASMIR 6 0.00353 0.27 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.58 0.42 0.5623 0.3070 YIESIN 6 0.0296 0.80 0.14 0.17 0.69 0.48 0.38 0.6948 0.4721 YIESIS 6 0.0107 0.67 0.12 0.00 0.88 0.22 0.67 0.7385 0.4614 YIESIR 6 0.0190 0.12 0.26 0.43 0.31 0.02 0.72 1.6221 0.7236 PRODSI 6 0.0320 0.45 0.11 0.28 0.61 0.00 0.89 0.9083 0.4799 HDSI 6 0.0280 0.86 0.41 0.23 0.36 0.42 0.17 0.8648 0.5218 HESI 6 0.0525 0.63 0.30 0.18 0.51 0.01 0.69 1.0211 0.4319 SDSI 6 0.1780 0.79 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.32 0.68 0.6100 0.3616 CSI 6 0.000120 0.57 0.19 0.34 0.47 0.05 0.76 0.2090 0.0997 SXSI 6 0.0558 0.38 0.10 0.21 0.69 0.01 0.89 0.8934 0.4997 XSI 6 0.0423 0.27 0.21 0.51 0.28 0.10 0.69 1.0745 0.5434 HESM 6 0.1188 0.72 0.29 0.13 0.57 0.00 0.70 0.9010 0.4014 XSM 6 0.00347 0.73 0.24 0.05 0.72 0.30 0 .46 0.5868 0.3740 HEKB 6 0.0275 0.72 0.05 0.04 0.90 0.35 0.60 0.7233 0.4425 HDKB 6 0.0394 0.53 0.49 0.12 0.39 0.00 0.51 1.3616 0.5613 SDKB 6 0.00367 0.49 0.05 0.27 0.68 0.00 0.95 0.7534 0.3506 CKB 6 0.00348 0.29 0.01 0.49 0.50 0.03 0.95 0.8344 0.4109 XKB 6 0.00763 0.61 0.02 0.12 0.86 0.01 0.97 0.8521 0.4432 HEKA 6 0.0612 0.36 0.22 0.02 0.75 0.20 0.57 0.9959 0.6686 HDKA 6 0.0514 0.59 0.75 0.12 0.13 0.03 0.23 1.5571 0.7227 HEMA 6 0.00547 0.79 0.02 0.02 0.96 0.05 0.93 0.6267 0.3356 HDMA 6 0.0221 0.56 0.01 0.57 0.42 0.17 0.82 1.0334 0.4456 SDKA 6 0.0966 -0.08 0.01 0.51 0.48 0.00 0.99 1.2480 0.6569 SDMA 6 0.0161 0.92 0.09 0.14 0.77 0.31 0.60 0.4541 0.2548 CKA 6 0.1716 -0.04 0.04 0.47 0.49 0.00 0.96 1.1409 0.6202 CMA 6 0.0346 0.74 0.48 0.08 0.44 0. 00 0.52 1.0120 0.4401 XKA 6 0.00338 0.92 0.03 0.24 0.73 0.44 0.53 0.4351 0.2485 XMA 6 0.00335 0.98 0.16 0.07 0.77 0.13 0.71 0.2428 0.1279 HEKUSA 6 0.0154 0.48 0.06 0.07 0.87 0.08 0.85 0.9408 0.5391 HERUSA 6 0.0158 0.03 0.00 0.75 0.25 0.14 0.86 1.6304 0.6403 HMRUSA 6 0.0162 0.76 0.21 0.06 0.73 0.32 0.47 0.7527 0.4690 HDRUSA 6 0.0109 0.52 0.00 0.47 0.53 0.07 0.93 1.1508 0.4975 HDKUSA 6 0.0629 -0.07 0.41 0.06 0.53 0.28 0.31 1.3572 0.6561 MRUSA 6 0.0538 0.37 0.00 0.40 0.60 0.01 0.99 0.8565 0.4106 SDKUSA 6 0.00125 0.90 0.30 0.02 0.69 0.10 0.60 0.5254 0.2850 SDRUSA 6 0.0383 0.19 0.01 0.37 0.63 0.00 0.99 0.8332 0.4120 CKUSA 6 0.0133 0.10 0.80 0.04 0.17 0.03 0.17 2.4327 0.7287 CRUSA 6 0.0566 0.06 0.00 0.51 0.49 0.00 1 .00 0.9783 0.4785 XKUSA 6 0.2328 0.70 0.35 0.20 0.46 0.03 0.63 1.0275 0.4283 XRUSA 6 0.1180 0.63 0.02 0.05 0.93 0.06 0.93 0.7085 0.3917 HERCD 6 0.0139 0.71 0.13 0.06 0.81 0.38 0.49 0.7755 0.4666 HDRCD 6 0.00933 0.85 0.28 0.15 0.57 0.37 0.36 0.7016 0.4166 CRCD 6 0.0421 0.25 0.66 0.14 0.20 0.00 0.34 2.1356 0.6751 XRCD 6 0.0394 0.96 0.66 0.14 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.5516 0.3450 HMSP 6 0.1572 0.26 0.47 0.38 0.15 0.10 0.43 2.4675 0.6998 CSP 6 0.0220 0.54 0.12 0.13 0.75 0.01 0.87 0.8309 0.4635 MSP 6 0.00415 0.92 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.03 0.95 0.3503 0.1781 HMMMS 6 0.00535 0.73 0.05 0.01 0.95 0.21 0.74 0.6498 0.3580 CMMS 6 0.0668 0.89 0.61 0.02 0.37 0.09 0.30 0.5668 0.3497 MMMS 6 0.0818 0.88 0.01 0.67 0.33 0.45 0.54 0.6266 0.2704 HMKEU 6 0.0168 0.61 0.09 0.01 0.90 0. 13 0.78 0.8292 0.4810 HMSEU 6 0.0272 0.51 0.22 0.31 0.47 0.03 0.75 1.2476 0.5192 HMREU 6 0.0191 0.42 0.22 0.09 0.69 0.06 0.72 1.0951 0.5805 HMMEU 6 0.00742 0.65 0.00 0.13 0.87 0.00 0.99 0.7853 0.4014 CKEU 6 0.00307 0.47 0.02 0.16 0.82 0.02 0.96 0.9713 0.5188 CSEU 6 0.00346 -0.20 0.39 0.23 0.38 0.08 0.54 1.4780 0.8369 CREU 6 0.00782 0.26 0.01 0.30 0.69 0.01 0.98 1.0807 0.5753 CMEU 6 0.00301 -0.01 0.02 0.93 0.04 0.58 0.39 3.2747 0.7850 Lampiran 9. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U MKEU 6 0.2331 0.01 0.27 0.35 0.38 0.00 0.73 1.3806 0.7478 MSEU 6 0.00966 0.72 0.56 0.27 0.17 0.12 0.32 0.9467 0.4971 MREU 6 0.0946 0.32 0.00 0.39 0.61 0.00 1.00 1.0631 0.5169 MMEU 6 0.0145 0.52 0.09 0.03 0.88 0.14 0.78 0.7763 0.4743 HMSC 6 0.0321 0.66 0.19 0.15 0.65 0.00 0.81 0.9014 0.4143 HMKC 6 0.0191 0.61 0.01 0.05 0.93 0.06 0.93 0.8201 0.4531 HMRC 6 0.00252 0.86 0.17 0.01 0.82 0.13 0.70 0.5527 0.2933 CSC 6 0.0116 0.88 0.42 0.08 0.50 0.01 0.57 0.4748 0.2562 CKC 6 0.00232 0.72 0.66 0.02 0.32 0.14 0.20 0.9768 0.6621 CRC 6 0.000141 0.93 0.05 0.45 0.50 0.65 0.30 0.3319 0.1725 MSC 6 0.0122 0.56 0.41 0.00 0.59 0.11 0.48 0.7416 0.4923 MKC 6 0.1770 0.84 0.43 0.12 0.45 0.30 0.27 0.6933 0.4676 MRC 6 1.0590 0.87 0.13 0.04 0.83 0.19 0 .68 0.4824 0.2774 HMSID 6 0.1290 0.53 0.42 0.44 0.14 0.21 0.37 2.2791 0.6530 HMKID 6 0.0156 0.62 0.07 0.10 0.83 0.02 0.91 0.8634 0.4471 CSID 6 0.0146 0.71 0.03 0.27 0.70 0.03 0.94 0.8092 0.3716 CKID 6 0.0156 0.76 0.18 0.00 0.82 0.14 0.68 0.6907 0.4046 MSID 6 0.0238 0.77 0.21 0.28 0.51 0.07 0.72 0.8425 0.3550 MKID 6 0.0832 0.95 0.16 0.50 0.34 0.64 0.20 0.5305 0.3331 HMKIR 6 0.0208 0.71 0.20 0.01 0.80 0.19 0.61 0.7753 0.4643 HMMIR 6 0.00792 0.79 0.47 0.01 0.52 0.10 0.43 0.8029 0.3797 CKIR 6 0.00289 0.43 0.19 0.59 0.22 0.22 0.59 1.4025 0.4832 CMIR 6 2.0679 0.65 0.04 0.12 0.84 0.01 0.95 0.6799 0.3321 MKIR 6 0.00339 0.86 0.04 0.02 0.94 0.01 0.95 0.4400 0.2300 MMIR 6 8.9090 0.59 0.14 0.33 0.54 0.04 0.82 0.8848 0.3771 XSW 6 0.00549 0.73 0.55 0.25 0.20 0. 11 0.34 0.6490 0.3678 MSW 6 0.000968 0.93 0.40 0.00 0.60 0.03 0.57 0.2268 0.1222 XKW 6 0.000990 0.97 0.28 0.02 0.70 0.06 0.66 0.2949 0.1492 MKW 6 0.0114 0.76 0.73 0.07 0.20 0.01 0.26 1.3259 0.5900 XRW 6 0.00462 0.96 0.60 0.02 0.38 0.05 0.35 0.3859 0.2139 MRW 6 0.0484 0.24 0.02 0.51 0.48 0.03 0.95 1.1153 0.5338 XMW 6 0.000286 1.00 0.14 0.01 0.85 0.01 0.84 0.0938 0.0474 MMW 6 0.00480 0.92 0.03 0.10 0.87 0.01 0.95 0.4003 0.1980 Lampiran 10. Program Peramalan Variabel Eksogen dan Peramalan Tahap Awal Variabel Endogen dalam Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-2025 OPTIONS nodate nonumber; DATA TESIS; SET ANALISIS; run ; PROC FORECAST DATA=TESIS outdata method=STEPAR trend= 2 lead= 17 OUT=EXSO; id TAHUN; var TREN HCOW HCOW MXSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI LASIN LASIS LASIR ERI PESI ENDSTOKSI IPI POPI ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD STOKRCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS POPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU PRODMEU TMSC TMKC TMRC ERC IPC POPC PRODRC TMKID TMSID PRODKID ERID IPID POPID TMKIR TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI XSI CSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB XKB CKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA XKA CMA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDKUSA HDRUSA XKUSA XRUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA HERCD HDRCD XRCD CRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS MMMS CMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR; RUN ; PROC PRINT DATA =EXSO FIRSTOBS= 25 ; RUN ; DATA RAMAL1; SET EXSO; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HSW= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HKW= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HRW= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMW= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN LASMIN= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN LASMIS= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN LASMIR= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN YIESIN= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN YIESIS= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN YIESIR= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HDSI= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HESI= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CSI= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XSI= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HESM= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XSM= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HEKB= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HDKB= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XKB= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CKB= 1 ; Lampiran 10. Lanjutan if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HEKA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HDKA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CKA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XKA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HEMA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HDMA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CMA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XMA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HEKUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HERUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMRUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HDKUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HDRUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XKUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XRUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MRUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CKUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CRUSA= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HERCD= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HDRCD= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN XRCD= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CRCD= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMSP= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CSP= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MSP= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMMMS= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CMMS= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MMMS= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMKEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMSEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMREU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMMEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CKEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CSEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CREU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CMEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MKEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MSEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MREU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MMEU= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMSC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMKC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMRC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CSC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CKC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CRC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MSC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MKC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MRC= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMSID= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMKID= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CSID= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CKID= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MSID= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MKID= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMKIR= 1 ; Lampiran 10. Lanjutan if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN HMMIR= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CKIR= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN CMIR= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MKIR= 1 ; if TAHUN 2008 AND _TYPE_= FORECAST THEN MMIR= 1 ; RUN ; PROC PRINT DATA =RAMAL1; RUN ; DATA ENDOG; SET RAMAL1; LLASIN = LAGLASIN; LLASIS = LAGLASIS; LASIR = LAGLASIR; L3LASIN = LAG3LASIN;L3LASIS = LAG3LASIS;L3LASIR =LAG3LASIR; LHCPI = LAGHCPI; LUSPI = LAGUSPI; LSDSI = LAGSDSI; STOKSI = LAGENDSTOKSI; LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS; LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR; DLASMIN = LASMIN-LLASMIN; DLASMIS = LASMIS-LLASMIS; DLASMIR = LASMIR-LLASMIR; RSDSICSI = SDSICSI 100 ; RCSDSI = CSISDSI 100 ; RLASMSIN = DLASMINLASIN 100 ; RLASMSIS = DLASMISLASIS 100 ; RLASMSIR = DLASMIRLASIR 100 ; RUSPI = USPI-LUSPILUSPI 100 ; RHCPI = HCPI-LHCPILHCPI 100 ; RSDSI = SDSI-LSDSILSDSI; RCSI = CSI-LCSILCSI; RXSI = XSI-LXSILXSI; RRSDSIRCSI = RSDSIRCSI; DSDSICSI = SDSI-CSI; RTSDSI = PRODSI+STOKSIXSI+CSI; RHCOW = HCOW-LHCOWLHCOW; RHESI = HESI-LHESILHESI; RHDSI = HDSI-LHDSILHDSI; RHMMKIR = HMMIRHMKIR; RHMSID = HMSID-LHMSIDLHMSID; RCSID = CSID-LCSIDLCSID; RRHMSIDRCSID = RHMSIDRCSID; RHMMMS = HMMMS-LHMMMSLHMMMS; RHMSP = HMSP-LHMSPLHMSP; RCSP = CSP-LCSPLCSP; RHERCD = HERCD-LHERCDLHERCD; RHDRUSAHCOW = HDRUSAHCOW; RHDKUSAHCOW = HDKUSAHCOW; RHEKUSA = HEKUSA-LHEKUSALHEKUSA; RHEDKUSA = HEKUSAHDKUSA; RHDMKA = HDMAHDKA; RHDKA = HDKA-LHDKALHDKA; RHDKB = HDKB-LHDKBLHDKB; RRHDKBRHCOW = RHDKBRHCOW; RCMMS = CMMS-LCMMSLCMMS; RHDKRUSA = HDKUSAHDRUSA; LPOPI = LAGPOPI;LHCOW = LAGHCOW;LCSI = LAGCSI;LXSI=LAGXSI; LXSM = LAGXSM; LMSC = LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU; LMSID = LAGMSID;LMSP = LAGMSP; LCSC = LAGCSC; LCSEU = LAGCSEU;LCSID = LAGCSID;LCSP = LAGCSP; LHSW = LAGHSW; LHESI = LAGHESI; LHESM = LAGHESM; LHDSI = LAGHDSI; LHMSC = LAGHMSC; LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU; LHMSID= LAGHMSID; LHMSP = LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA; LXKB = LAGXKB; LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC; LMKID = LAGMKID; LMKEU = LAGMKEU; LMKIR = LAGMKIR; LCKA = LAGCKA; LCKB = LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA; LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID = LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU; LCKIR = LAGCKIR; LHKW = LAGHKW; LHEKA = LAGHEKA; LHEKB = LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC = LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID; LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU; LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD; LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA; LMREU = LAGMREU; LMRC = LAGMRC; LCRCD = LAGCRCD; Lampiran 10. Lanjutan LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA; LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC; LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD; LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA; LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU; LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU; LMMMS = LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA; LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR; LHMW = LAGHMW; LHEMA = LAGHEMA; LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU; LHMMMS = LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR; LHDKB = LAGHDKB; LHDKA = LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA; LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW; XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; XMW = XMA+XMRW; MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI; SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB; SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA; RUN ; PROC SIMNLIN DATA=ENDOG DYNAMIC SIMULATE OUT=N_ENDO; ENDOGENOUS HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA RHCOW RHMMKIR RXSI RHDSI RHESI RCSID RHMSID RRHMSIDRCSID RHMMMS RCMMS RHMSP RCSP RHERCD RHDRUSAHCOW RHEKUSA RHEDKUSA RHDKRUSA RHDMKA RHDKA RHDKB RRHDKBRHCOW LCSI LXSI LLASMIN LLASMIS LLASMIR LXSM LMSC LMSEU LMSID LMSP LCSC LCSEU LCSID LCSP LHSW LHESI LHESM LHDSI LHMSC LHMSEU LHMSID LHMSP LXKA LXKB LXKUSA LMKC LMKID LMKEU LMKIR LCKA LCKB LCKUSA LCKC LCKID LCKEU LCKIR LHKW LHEKA LHEKB LHEKUSA LHMKC LHMKID LHMKEU LHMKIR LXRCD LXRUSA LMRUSA LMREU LMRC LCRCD LCRUSA LCREU LCRC LHRW LHERCD LHERUSA LHMRUSA LHDRUSA LHDKUSA LHMREU LHMRC LXMA LMMEU LMMMS LMMIR LCMA LCMEU LCMMS LCMIR LHMW LHEMA LHMMEU LHMMMS LHMMIR LHDKB LHDKA LHDMA LHDRCD; EXOGENOUS TREN HCOW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI ERI PESI STOKSI LPOPI LASIN LASIS LASIR ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD STOKRCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS POPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC PPRODRC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID IPID POPID TMMIR TMKIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR IPIR POPIR; Lampiran 10. Lanjutan PARM B0 241.8316 B1 - 0.02120 B2 0.023313 B3 0.474437 C0 182.7619 C1 - 0.03417 C2 0.051413 C3 0.487471 D0 143.6909 D1 - 0.01026 D2 0.062441 D3 0.539133 E0 380.0096 E1 - 0.15911 E2 0.243896 I0 0.089329 I1 - 1.12078 I2 0.858698 J0 243.9014 J1 0.116390 J2 - 0.21126 J3 - 0.43739 J4 0.804695 K0 72.46956 K1 0.013851 K2 - 0.24278 K3 0.778981 L0 0.000224 L1 - 0.00153 L2 - 0.00406 L3 0.992763 M0 0.001040 M1 - 0.00015 M2 0.88328 N0 0.000087 N1 0.000197 N2 - 0.00817 N3 - 0.00149 N4 0.584751 O0 4.662357 O1 0.157079 O2 - 464.243 O3 0.300709 P0 0.745129 P1 - 0.00176 P2 - 11.0698 P3 0.167411 Q0 1.405829 Q1 - 453.433 Q2 - 57.9413 Q3 0.008254 Q4 0.896068 R0 - 3450.09 R1 - 0.05438 R2 961.7034 R3 23.42292 R4 0.695843 S0 15.75933 S1 0.855158 S2 - 14.0676 S3 - 0.00528 S4 0.244956 T0 0.069857 T1 - 6.67733 T2 0.812459 T3 0.388918 T4 0.465425 U0 351.7565 U1 0.110846 U2 - 6.46154 U3 - 3.66984 U4 0.454223 V0 0.507638 V1 - 0.14320 V2 0.169727 W0 - 723.471 W1 0.229701 W2 - 0.41627 W3 100.4155 W4 0.440950 W5 0.116749 X0 - 903.105 X1 - 0.19697 X2 - 2.17634 X3 11.50532 X4 0.683214 Y0 39.59796 Y1 0.870944 Y2 - 4.28929 Y3 - 0.01236 Y4 0.066310 Z0 127.8220 Z1 0.104366 Z2 - 2.90880 Z3 0.521371 AA0 - 2039.83 AA1 - 41.4378 AA2 131.3494 AA3 66.68074 AB0 0.163538 AB1 - 0.41667 AB2 10.76324 AB3 0.909194 AC0 107.3276 AC1 0.550047 AC2 0.183935 AD0 0.162831 AD1 - 0.32333 AD2 0.399137 AD3 0.621045 AE0 - 225.772 AE1 5.172079 AE2 6.433590 AF0 - 27.2357 AF1 0.065140 AF2 - 0.22921 AF3 - 2.04815 AF4 0.794059 AF5 0.011916 AG0 343.4989 AG1 0.457125 AG2 2.036429 AH0 0.855283 AH1 8.448790 AH2 - 0.42908 AI0 0.680184 AI1 7.412285 CG0 0.519024 CG1 - 0.12344 CG2 0.206917 CH0 7.249052 CH1 1.065817 CH2 0.013472 CH3 - 0.02424 CH4 0.066539 AJ0 441.8021 AJ1 65.10564 AJ2 - 0.27971 AJ3 0.077960 AK0 0.066989 AK1 - 0.05650 AK2 0.431599 AL0 56.36600 AL1 - 0.05946 AL2 - 0.52080 AL3 0.644072 AL4 0.230138 AM0 - 70.3891 AM1 0.709185 AM2 25.79298 AN0 - 3516.09 AN1 - 0.79295 AN2 - 6.57461 AN3 0.299084 AN4 16.70166 AO0 0.636471 AO1 0.079828 AO2 - 0.15465 AO3 0.542992 CE0 0.990814 CE1 - 0.00435 CE2 0.015832 CE3 0.063175 AP0 5.123725 AP1 - 0.32645 AP2 0.583089 AP3 0.414745 AQ0 - 169.133 AQ1 - 0.00666 AQ2 4.062721 AQ3 1.131358 AQ4 0.797579 AR0 0.689993 AR1 0.334226 AS0 - 799.987 AS1 - 0.30548 AS2 12.74509 AS3 0.433641 AT0 2310.386 AT1 - 0.13369 AT2 - 9.75469 AT3 - 39.9513 AT4 784.9596 AT5 0.463356 AU0 0.359474 AU1 7.690904 AU2 0.345766 AV0 353.3033 AV1 - 2.37764 AV2 - 27.9014 AV3 82.52237 AW0 216.4328 AW1 - 0.00951 AW2 - 14.3876 AW3 0.112771 AW4 0.369714 AX0 175.0135 AX1 0.563480 AX2 4.251363 AY0 133.9674 AY1 0.746373 AY2 1.444464 AZ0 0.798185 AZ1 7.037101 Lampiran 10. Lanjutan BA0 336.7428 BA1 0.486808 BA2 2.017002 BB0 - 0.77048 BB1 0.615640 BB2 0.503863 BB3 1400.688 BB4 0.026403 BB5 0.374336 BC0 - 825.988 BC1 - 732.909 BC2 0.478277 BC3 0.118464 BD0 - 10473.3 BD1 - 1.76015 BD2 1.236793 BD3 590.7302 BD4 0.040975 BD5 24.40434 BD6 0.604560 BE0 - 5268.47 BE1 - 0.59224 BE2 0.768582 BE3 15.21893 BE4 10.89263 BE5 0.908926 BF0 - 0.30298 BF1 - 91.3233 BF2 0.702171 BG0 - 0.23946 BG1 0.399460 BG2 0.871883 BH0 154.2939 BH1 - 0.72911 BH2 0.986633 BI0 30.12616 BI1 - 0.18123 BI2 - 0.30879 BI3 0.761962 BI4 0.650198 BJ0 - 13375.0 BJ1 - 2.99543 BJ2 0.175097 BJ3 1.794438 BJ4 145.2790 BJ5 1.223164 BJ6 3.447816 BK0 - 1707.87 BK1 - 0.16965 BK2 0.014549 BK3 1.844396 BK4 0.796551 BL0 0.854980 BL1 2.071625 BM0 264.6960 BM1 0.494498 BM2 0.215192 BN0 127.0903 BN1 0.605879 BN2 3.956275 BO0 - 6128.81 BO1 - 0.00352 BO2 0.257495 BO3 0.114741 BO4 6.436799 BO5 0.362579 BP0 - 0.29663 BP1 0.346245 BP2 0.593307 BQ0 41.04146 BQ1 - 0.02139 BQ2 - 0.44848 BQ3 0.457126 BQ4 0.288498 BR0 274.0120 BR1 - 0.12175 BR2 1.029408 BS0 10490.41 BS1 - 91.5287 BS2 - 180.130 BS3 - 70.7774 BT0 42.28541 BT1 0.665738 BT2 23.18987 BT3 0.218731 BU0 0.748755 BU1 5.162068 BV0 - 10086.8 BV1 - 1.17667 BV2 0.756096 BV3 11.43984 BW0 - 4107.24 BW1 - 0.68285 BW2 0.414404 BW3 57.07257 BW4 1.570795 BW5 0.716798 BX0 64.95581 BX1 - 0.07863 BX2 - 0.96035 BX3 0.986032 BY0 0.870527 BY1 2.671920 BZ0 0.295125 BZ1 5.422256 BZ2 0.465672 CA0 - 0.22872 CA1 0.132785 CA2 4.461250 CA3 0.623417 CB0 - 839.868 CB1 - 12.2172 CB2 13.86352 CB3 2.248393 CB4 0.497034 CC0 - 0.06288 CC1 - 1.07570 CC2 1.106310 CC3 0.086497 CD0 - 0.00270 CD1 - 0.92889 CD2 1.144923 ; HSW = B0+B1XSW+B2MSW+B3LHSW; HKW = C0+C1XKW+C2MKW+C3LHKW; HRW = D0+D1XRW+D2MRW+D3LHRW; HMW = E0+E1XMW+E2MMW; LASMIN = I0LHESI+I1RHCPI+I2L3LASIN; LASMIS = J0+J1LHESI+J2RHCPI+J3USPI+J4L3LASIS; LASMIR = K0+K1LHDSI+K2USPI+K3LLASIR; YIESIN = L0HESI+L1RHCPI+L2DLASMIN+L3LYIESIN; YIESIS = M0HESI+M1DLASMIS+M2LYIESIS; YIESIR = N0HDSI+N1LHDSI+N2RHCPI+N3DLASMIR+N4LYIESIR; HDSI = O0HESI+O1ERI+O2RTSDSI+O3LHDSI; HESI = P0HSW+P1ERI+P2RXSI+P3LHESI; XSI = Q0HESI+Q1RHDSI+Q2PESI+Q3ERI+Q4SXSI; CSI = R0+R1HDSI+R2RHCOW+R3POPI+R4LCSI; HESM = S0+S1HSW+S2ERM+S3XSM+S4LHESM; XSM = T0HESM+T1PESM+T2STOKSM+T3PRODSM+T4LXSM; HEKB = U0+U1HKW+U2ERB+U3PEKB+U4LHEKB; HDKB = V0HEKB+V1SDKB+V2CKB; Lampiran 10. Lanjutan XKB = W0+W1HEKB+W2HDKB+W3ERB+W4PRODKB+W5LXKB; CKB = X0+X1HDKB+X2RRHDKBRHCOW+X3POPB+X4LCKB; HEKA = Y0+Y1HKW+Y2ERA+Y3XKA+Y4LHEKA; HDKA = Z0+Z1HEKA+Z2RSDCKA+Z3LHDKA; CKA = AA0+AA1RHDKA+AA2RHCOW+AA3POPA; XKA = AB0HEKA+AB1HDKA+AB2ERA+AB3PRODKA; HEMA = AC0+AC1HMW+AC2LHEMA; HDMA = AD0HEMA+AD1SDMA+AD2CMA+AD3LHDMA; CMA = AE0RHDMKA+AE1HCOW+AE2POPA; XMA = AF0+AF1HEMA+AF2HDMA+AF3PEMA+AF4PRODMA+AF5LXMA; HEKUSA = AG0+AG1HKW+AG2SEKUSA; HERUSA = AH0HRW+AH1SERUSA+AH2XRUSA; HMRUSA = AI0HRW+AI1TMRUSA; HDKUSA = CG0HEKUSA+CG1SDKUSA+CG2CKUSA; HDRUSA = CH0+CH1HERUSA+CH2HMRUSA+CH3SDRUSA+CH4CRUSA; XKUSA = AJ0+AJ1RHEKUSA+AJ2HDKUSA+AJ3PRODKUSA; XRUSA = AK0HERUSA+AK1HDRUSA+AK2PRODRUSA; MRUSA = AL0+AL1HMRUSA+AL2STOKRUSA+AL3CRUSA+AL4LMRUSA; CKUSA = AM0RHDKUSAHCOW+AM1HDRUSA+AM2POPUSA; CRUSA = AN0+AN1HDRUSA+AN2RHDRUSAHCOW+AN3HDKUSA+AN4POPUSA; HERCD = AO0HRW+AO1SERCD+AO2XRCD+AO3LHERCD; HDRCD = CE0HERCD+CE1PRODRCD+CE2CRCD+CE3LHDRCD; XRCD = AP0RHERCD+AP1HDRCD+AP2PRODRCD+AP3LXRCD; CRCD = AQ0+AQ1HDRCD+AQ2HCOW+AQ3POPCD+AQ4LCRCD; HMSP = AR0HSW+AR1LHMSP; CSP = AS0+AS1HMSP+AS2POPP+AS3LCSP; MSP = AT0+AT1HMSP+AT2ERP+AT3TMSP+AT4RCSP+AT5LMSP; HMMMS = AU0HMW+AU1TMMMS+AU2LHMMMS; MMMS = AV0+AV1RHMMMS+AV2ERMS+AV3RCMMS; CMMS = AW0+AW1HMMMS+AW2ERMS+AW3POPMS+AW4LCMMS; HMKEU = AX0+AX1HKW+AX2TMKEU; HMSEU = AY0+AY1HSW+AY2TMSEU; HMREU = AZ0HRW+AZ1TMREU; HMMEU = BA0+BA1HMW+BA2TMMEU; CKEU = BB0HMKEU+BB1HMREU+BB2HMMEU+BB3RHCOW+BB4IPEU +BB5LCKEU; CMEU = BC0+BC1RHMMREU+BC2HMKEU+BC3IPEU; CSEU = BD0+BD1HMSEU+BD2HMMEU+BD3RHCOW+BD4IPEU+BD5POPEU +BD6LCSEU; CREU = BE0+BE1HMREU+BE2HMSEU+BE3HCOW+BE4POPEU+BE5LCREU; MKEU = BF0HMKEU+BF1EREU+BF2CKEU; MSEU = BG0HMSEU+BG1CSEU+BG2LMSEU; MREU = BH0+BH1HMREU+BH2CREU; MMEU = BI0+BI1HMMEU+BI2PRODMEU+BI3CMEU+BI4LMMEU; HMSC = BL0HSW+BL1TMSC; HMKC = BM0+BM1HKW+BM2TMKC; HMRC = BN0+BN1HRW+BN2TMRC; CSC = BJ0+BJ1HMSC+BJ2HMKC+BJ3HMRC+BJ4HCOW+BJ5IPC +BJ6POPC; CKC = BK0+BK1HMKC+BK2IPC+BK3POPC+BK4LCKC; CRC = BO0+BO1HMRC+BO2HMKC+BO3IPC+BO4POPC+BO5LCRC; MKC = BP0HMKC+BP1CKC+BP2LMKC; MRC = BQ0+BQ1HMRC+BQ2PRODRC+BQ3CRC+BQ4LMRC; MSC = BR0+BR1HMSC+BR2CSC; HMSID = BT0+BT1HSW+BT2RCSID+BT3LHMSID; HMKID = BU0HKW+BU1TMKID; Lampiran 10. Lanjutan CSID = BV0+BV1HMSID+BV2IPID+BV3POPID; CKID = BW0+BW1HMKID+BW2HMSID+BW3HCOW+BW4POPID+BW5LCKID; MSID = BS0+BS1RRHMSIDRCSID+BS2TMSID+BS3ERID; MKID = BX0+BX1HMKID+BX2PRODKID+BX3CKID; HMKIR = BY0HKW+BY1TMKIR; HMMIR = BZ0HMW+BZ1TMMIR+BZ2LHMMIR; CKIR = CA0HMKIR+CA1HMMIR+CA2POPIR+CA3LCKIR; CMIR = CB0+CB1RHMMKIR+CB2HCOW+CB3POPIR+CB4LCMIR; MKIR = CC0HMKIR+CC1PRODKIR+CC2CKIR+CC3LMKIR; MMIR = CD0HMMIR+CD1PRODMIR+CD2CMIR; PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW; XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; XMW = XMA+XMRW; MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI; SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB; SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA; RHCOW = HCOW-LHCOWLHCOW; RHESI = HESI-LHESILHESI; RHDSI = HDSI-LHDSILHDSI; RHMMKIR = HMMIRHMKIR; RHMSID = HMSID-LHMSIDLHMSID; RCSID = CSID-LCSIDLCSID; RRHMSIDRCSID = RHMSIDRCSID; RHMMMS = HMMMS-LHMMMSLHMMMS; RHMSP = HMSP-LHMSPLHMSP; RCSP = CSP-LCSPLCSP; RHERCD = HERCD-LHERCDLHERCD; RHDRUSAHCOW = HDRUSAHCOW; RHDKUSAHCOW = HDKUSAHCOW; RHEKUSA = HEKUSA-LHEKUSALHEKUSA; RHEDKUSA = HEKUSAHDKUSA; RHDMKA = HDMAHDKA; RHDKA = HDKA-LHDKALHDKA; RHDKB = HDKB-LHDKBLHDKB; RRHDKBRHCOW = RHDKBRHCOW; RCMMS = CMMS-LCMMSLCMMS; RHDKRUSA = HDKUSAHDRUSA; RSDSI = SDSI-LSDSILSDSI; RCSI = CSI-LCSILCSI; RXSI = XSI-LXSILXSI; RRSDSIRCSI = RSDSIRCSI; RSDSICSI = SDSICSI 100 ; RCSDSI = CSISDSI 100 ; DSDSICSI = SDSI-CSI; DLASMIN = LASMIN-LLASMIN; DLASMIS = LASMIS-LLASMIS; DLASMIR = LASMIR-LLASMIR; RLASMSIN = DLASMINLASIN 100 ; RLASMSIS = DLASMISL3LASIS 100 ; RLASMSIR = DLASMIRLASIR 100 ; RTSDSI = PRODSI+STOKSIXSI+CSI; Lampiran 10. Lanjutan LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS; LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR; LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI = LAGXSI; LHCOW = LAGHCOW LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI=LAGXSI; LXSM = LAGXSM; LMSC = LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU; LMSID = LAGMSID LMSP = LAGMSP; LCSC = LAGCSC; LCSEU = LAGCSEU; LCSID = LAGCSID; LCSP = LAGCSP; LHSW = LAGHSW; LHESI = LAGHESI; LHESM = LAGHESM; LHDSI = LAGHDSI; LHMSC = LAGHMSC; LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU; LHMSID = LAGHMSID; LHMSP = LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA; LXKB = LAGXKB; LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC; LMKID = LAGMKID; LMKEU = LAGMKEU; LMKIR = LAGMKIR; LCKA = LAGCKA; LCKB = LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA; LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID = LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU; LCKIR = LAGCKIR; LHKW = LAGHKW; LHEKA = LAGHEKA; LHEKB = LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC = LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID; LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU; LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD; LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA; LMREU = LAGMREU; LMRC = LAGMRC; LCRCD = LAGCRCD; LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA; LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC; LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD; LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA; LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU; LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU; LMMMS = LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA; LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR; LHMW = LAGHMW; LHEMA = LAGHEMA; LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU; LHMMMS = LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR; LHDKB = LAGHDKB; LHDKA = LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA; LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; RANGE TAHUN 2009 TO 2025 ; RUN ; PROC PRINT DATA =N_ENDO; id Tahun; VAR HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA ; RUN ; Lampiran 11. Hasil Peramalan Variabel Eksogen dan Peramalan Tahap Awal Variabel Endogen dalam Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-2025 Variabel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Eksogen POPI 240.33 243.20 246.05 248.89 251.72 254.54 257.36 Eksogen HCPI 3219.08 3242.15 3308.36 3381.03 3440.05 3489.41 3539.10 Eksogen USPI 734.67 742.63 749.00 754.51 759.54 764.30 768.93 Eksogen LASIN 780.62 727.85 791.18 814.46 812.93 832.57 831.36 Eksogen LASIS 3852.85 3964.60 4081.58 4202.61 4326.76 4453.32 4581.73 Eksogen LASIR 3044.57 3102.60 3167.15 3237.24 3312.05 3390.88 3473.15 Eksogen PRODSI 20901.42 21404.00 21899.41 22507.18 23159.64 23747.96 24505.10 Eksogen STOKSI 1506.14 1560.75 1615.36 1669.97 1724.58 1779.19 1833.80 Eksogen PESI 10.01 10.34 10.56 10.72 10.83 10.93 11.01 Eksogen ERI 11048.28 11216.60 11337.96 11437.63 11527.29 11612.31 11695.19 Eksogen PRODSM 18589.14 19008.19 19461.24 19937.52 20429.67 20932.66 21443.05 Eksogen STOKSM 1736.20 1781.74 1827.28 1872.82 1918.36 1963.90 2009.44 Eksogen ERM 3.27 3.28 3.27 3.26 3.24 3.22 3.20 Eksogen POPA 41.59 42.03 42.48 42.92 43.35 43.79 44.22 Eksogen PRODKA 6837.99 7060.68 7285.19 7511.20 7738.45 7966.71 8195.81 Eksogen PRODMA 1849.06 1898.84 1940.88 1977.92 2011.72 2043.43 2073.79 Eksogen STOKKA 551.82 582.00 608.68 632.78 654.98 675.79 695.58 Eksogen STOKMA 97.67 99.57 100.92 102.06 103.11 104.14 105.15 Eksogen ERA 2.32 2.31 2.31 2.30 2.30 2.29 2.29 Eksogen POPB 203.34 206.02 208.66 211.26 213.85 216.42 218.98 Eksogen PRODKB 6507.88 6646.14 6787.84 6931.72 7076.98 7223.13 7369.83 Eksogen STOKKB 325.48 331.75 338.02 344.29 350.56 356.83 363.10 Eksogen PEKB 18.75 19.48 18.10 18.05 16.97 17.32 16.83 Eksogen ERB 2.75 2.89 3.00 3.09 3.16 3.22 3.28 Eksogen POPUSA 315.32 318.10 320.90 323.74 326.61 329.49 332.37 Eksogen IPUSA 45658.45 46236.58 46800.64 47354.95 47902.52 48445.41 48985.07 Eksogen PRODKUSA 10003.53 10170.72 10337.91 10505.10 10672.29 10839.48 11006.67 Variabel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Eksogen POPI 260.17 262.98 265.78 268.58 271.38 274.18 276.98 Eksogen HCPI 3592.78 3648.41 3703.48 3757.49 3811.17 3865.10 3919.28 Eksogen USPI 773.47 777.97 782.45 786.92 791.37 795.83 800.28 Eksogen LASIN 825.64 875.15 868.21 880.74 905.33 919.64 944.08 Eksogen LASIS 4711.58 4842.53 4974.33 5106.79 5239.76 5373.12 5506.78 Eksogen LASIR 3558.33 3646.00 3735.78 3827.37 3920.50 4014.93 4110.48 Eksogen PRODSI 25246.63 25996.26 26789.25 27582.15 28386.35 29249.93 30069.52 Eksogen STOKSI 1888.41 1943.03 1997.64 2052.25 2106.86 2161.47 2216.08 Eksogen PESI 11.08 11.15 11.22 11.29 11.35 11.41 11.48 Eksogen ERI 11777.09 11858.53 11939.76 12020.89 12101.97 12183.04 12264.09 Eksogen PRODSM 21958.51 22477.42 22998.69 23521.57 24045.56 24570.30 25095.56 Eksogen STOKSM 2054.98 2100.52 2146.06 2191.60 2237.14 2282.68 2328.22 Eksogen ERM 3.17 3.14 3.12 3.09 3.06 3.03 3.00 Eksogen POPA 44.65 45.08 45.51 45.93 46.36 46.79 47.21 Eksogen PRODKA 8425.58 8655.91 8886.71 9117.88 9349.35 9581.09 9813.03 Eksogen PRODMA 2103.28 2132.20 2160.76 2189.08 2217.25 2245.32 2273.32 Eksogen STOKKA 714.61 733.08 751.15 768.91 786.46 803.84 821.11 Eksogen STOKMA 106.15 107.16 108.16 109.17 110.17 111.17 112.18 Eksogen ERA 2.29 2.28 2.28 2.27 2.27 2.26 2.26 Eksogen POPB 221.53 224.07 226.60 229.13 231.66 234.18 236.70 Eksogen PRODKB 7516.88 7664.16 7811.59 7959.10 8106.67 8254.28 8401.92 Eksogen STOKKB 369.37 375.64 381.91 388.18 394.45 400.72 406.99 Eksogen PEKB 16.61 16.68 16.17 16.70 16.58 16.97 16.65 Eksogen ERB 3.33 3.37 3.42 3.46 3.50 3.53 3.57 Eksogen POPUSA 335.27 338.17 341.06 343.94 346.82 349.68 352.53 Eksogen IPUSA 49522.48 50058.34 50593.12 51127.16 51660.68 52193.85 52726.76 Eksogen PRODKUSA 11173.86 11341.05 11508.24 11675.43 11842.62 12009.81 12177.00 Lampiran 11. Lanjutan Variabel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Eksogen PRODRUSA 487.15 501.68 517.70 534.51 551.73 569.17 586.73 Eksogen STOKKUSA 1230.34 1215.29 1143.98 1125.36 1177.05 1242.44 1272.84 Eksogen STOKRUSA 109.48 88.33 86.49 91.30 95.07 100.57 114.94 Eksogen SEKUSA 26.85 28.22 30.55 36.25 37.96 37.84 36.63 Eksogen SERUSA 24.03 23.31 23.82 24.10 24.57 24.47 24.47 Eksogen TMRUSA 22.56 22.04 20.62 19.12 17.89 17.18 16.86 Eksogen PRODRCD 1787.88 1745.24 1732.67 1807.44 1857.34 1920.89 1982.60 Eksogen SERCD 4.81 3.64 2.65 1.76 0.93 0.13 -0.64 Eksogen POPC 1391.23 1406.10 1420.66 1434.97 1449.04 1462.92 1476.63 Eksogen IPC 5134.33 5092.84 5079.51 5088.99 5116.96 5159.91 5215.00 Eksogen PRODRC 5125.51 5272.76 5414.99 5554.79 5693.41 5831.46 5969.24 Eksogen TMSC 18.03 17.30 16.53 15.75 14.96 14.16 13.36 Eksogen TMKC 68.10 71.29 73.19 74.26 74.80 75.00 74.98 Eksogen TMRC 12.72 12.14 11.45 10.70 9.93 9.14 8.34 Eksogen ERC 7.09 7.00 6.89 6.79 6.68 6.57 6.46 Eksogen POPID 1257.89 1275.69 1293.47 1311.23 1328.98 1346.72 1364.45 Eksogen PRODKID 1456.67 1426.07 1417.21 1605.90 1612.85 1692.62 1753.12 Eksogen TMSID 12.92 12.08 11.24 10.40 9.56 8.72 7.88 Eksogen TMKID 28.96 29.72 30.02 30.01 29.80 29.46 29.02 Eksogen ERID 42.03 42.76 43.29 43.66 43.89 44.03 44.08 Eksogen POPP 172.08 174.89 177.70 180.52 183.35 186.18 189.01 Eksogen IPP 1427.04 1361.46 1296.51 1234.80 1180.71 1136.94 1084.49 Eksogen TMSP 13.44 12.64 11.84 11.03 10.22 9.41 8.60 Eksogen ERP 64.36 66.98 67.38 66.40 64.59 62.30 59.92 Eksogen PRODMEU 2480.82 2549.11 2609.35 2663.01 2711.3 2755.19 2795.5 Eksogen POPEU 437.75 438.32 439.10 440.13 441.39 442.81 444.31 Eksogen IPEU 29699.50 30129.14 30579.33 30939.03 31215.75 31462.50 31719.65 Variabel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Eksogen PRODRUSA 604.35 622.00 639.67 657.34 675.02 692.71 710.39 Eksogen STOKKUSA 1271.40 1270.72 1290.53 1323.47 1352.29 1370.15 1383.29 Eksogen STOKRUSA 107.33 108.21 112.00 115.33 119.42 127.41 125.75 Eksogen SEKUSA 34.90 33.81 33.16 32.42 30.45 29.15 28.90 Eksogen SERUSA 24.39 24.57 24.70 24.88 24.92 25.00 25.05 Eksogen TMRUSA 16.72 16.54 16.19 15.66 15.01 14.33 13.70 Eksogen PRODRCD 2071.39 2158.38 2208.08 2253.31 2291.06 2326.58 2349.88 Eksogen SERCD -1.39 -2.14 -2.89 -3.63 -4.37 -5.11 -5.84 Eksogen POPC 1490.18 1503.61 1516.93 1530.15 1543.29 1556.35 1569.35 Eksogen IPC 5279.93 5352.84 5432.21 5516.81 5605.66 5697.95 5793.02 Eksogen PRODRC 6106.88 6244.46 6382.01 6519.54 6657.07 6794.59 6932.11 Eksogen TMSC 12.56 11.75 10.94 10.14 9.33 8.52 7.71 Eksogen TMKC 74.83 74.58 74.28 73.94 73.58 73.20 72.81 Eksogen TMRC 7.54 6.74 5.94 5.14 4.33 3.53 2.73 Eksogen ERC 6.35 6.23 6.12 6.01 5.90 5.79 5.68 Eksogen POPID 1382.17 1399.89 1417.61 1435.32 1453.03 1470.74 1488.44 Eksogen PRODKID 1838.03 1912.88 1896.30 1963.84 1997.66 2040.41 2071.86 Eksogen TMSID 7.04 6.20 5.36 4.52 3.69 2.85 2.01 Eksogen TMKID 28.53 27.99 27.43 26.85 26.26 25.66 25.06 Eksogen ERID 44.06 43.99 43.88 43.74 43.58 43.39 43.19 Eksogen POPP 191.85 194.68 197.52 200.37 203.21 206.05 208.90 Eksogen IPP 1024.08 955.65 878.04 789.47 693.32 592.42 489.35 Eksogen TMSP 7.79 6.98 6.17 5.36 4.54 3.73 2.92 Eksogen ERP 58.19 57.32 57.28 57.91 59.02 60.21 61.18 Eksogen PRODMEU 2832.87 2867.85 2900.86 2932.28 2962.38 2991.42 3019.58 Eksogen POPEU 445.80 447.21 448.51 449.66 450.71 451.67 452.59 Eksogen IPEU 31997.98 32289.32 32582.40 32871.43 33156.40 33439.73 33723.45 Lampiran 11. Lanjutan Variabel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Eksogen TMSEU 16.13 15.80 15.46 15.12 14.79 14.45 14.12 Eksogen TMKEU 26.08 26.13 26.18 26.23 26.27 26.32 26.37 Eksogen TMREU 21.70 21.56 21.42 21.28 21.14 21.00 20.86 Eksogen TMMEU 19.52 19.31 19.10 18.89 18.69 18.48 18.27 Eksogen POPIR 77.81 78.99 80.16 81.31 82.46 83.60 84.74 Eksogen PRODKIR 213.07 215.90 219.28 223.15 227.44 232.08 237.03 Eksogen PRODMIR 22.33 22.78 23.24 23.70 24.16 24.62 25.08 Eksogen TMKIR 24.91 25.31 25.35 25.14 24.76 24.26 23.69 Eksogen TMMIR 13.35 12.41 11.41 10.38 9.34 8.29 7.24 Eksogen ERIR 8346.70 8617.51 8845.48 9048.90 9238.22 9419.47 9596.09 Eksogen POPMS 78.77 79.80 80.87 81.96 83.07 84.20 85.34 Eksogen PRODMMS 11.10 11.64 12.10 12.50 12.85 13.17 13.47 Eksogen TMMMS 10.17 9.98 8.81 7.63 6.96 6.20 5.16 Eksogen ERMS 5.64 5.80 5.73 5.53 5.29 5.11 5.02 Eksogen XSRW 3655.95 3712.22 3781.20 3858.85 3942.45 4030.10 4120.54 Eksogen MSRW 12349.42 12266.81 12292.74 12399.16 12565.28 12775.67 13018.90 Eksogen XKRW 2395.32 2505.98 2458.81 2834.30 2607.31 2675.88 2683.12 Eksogen MKRW 5377.02 6192.30 5737.70 5914.81 6003.21 6550.07 6437.09 Eksogen XRRW 2701.92 2745.41 2794.67 2847.29 2901.86 2957.58 3013.96 Eksogen MRRW 417.11 366.78 329.94 281.99 250.23 209.09 190.43 Eksogen XMRW 3463.95 3555.69 3647.43 3739.17 3830.91 3922.65 4014.39 Eksogen MMRW 2120.50 2161.12 2201.74 2242.37 2282.99 2323.61 2364.23 Eksogen HCOW 56.70 56.74 56.75 56.75 56.75 56.74 56.74 Variabel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Eksogen TMSEU 13.78 13.44 13.11 12.77 12.44 12.10 11.76 Eksogen TMKEU 26.42 26.47 26.52 26.56 26.61 26.66 26.71 Eksogen TMREU 20.73 20.59 20.45 20.31 20.17 20.03 19.89 Eksogen TMMEU 18.06 17.85 17.64 17.43 17.23 17.02 16.81 Eksogen POPIR 85.87 87.00 88.12 89.24 90.37 91.49 92.60 Eksogen PRODKIR 242.24 247.68 253.31 259.11 265.05 271.12 277.29 Eksogen PRODMIR 25.53 25.99 26.45 26.91 27.37 27.83 28.28 Eksogen TMKIR 23.06 22.40 21.71 21.01 20.30 19.58 18.85 Eksogen TMMIR 6.19 5.14 4.08 3.03 1.98 0.92 -0.13 Eksogen ERIR 9770.05 9942.49 10114.05 10285.11 10455.89 10626.50 10797.01 Eksogen POPMS 86.49 87.65 88.81 89.98 91.15 92.33 93.51 Eksogen PRODMMS 13.75 14.02 14.28 14.53 14.78 15.02 15.26 Eksogen TMMMS 4.21 3.39 2.49 1.53 0.62 -0.27 -1.18 Eksogen ERMS 5.00 5.03 5.07 5.10 5.10 5.07 5.03 Eksogen XSRW 4212.87 4306.51 4401.03 4496.16 4591.71 4687.54 4783.56 Eksogen MSRW 13286.47 13572.11 13871.14 14180.10 14496.42 14818.22 15144.06 Eksogen XKRW 2854.61 2791.96 2844.18 2872.56 2964.78 2965.99 3011.85 Eksogen MKRW 6636.41 6875.52 6994.08 6841.60 7230.15 7349.56 7506.77 Eksogen XRRW 3070.72 3127.72 3184.84 3242.04 3299.29 3356.56 3413.84 Eksogen MRRW 181.40 181.60 182.55 186.77 186.21 179.82 167.07 Eksogen XMRW 4106.12 4197.86 4289.60 4381.34 4473.08 4564.82 4656.56 Eksogen MMRW 2404.85 2445.48 2486.10 2526.72 2567.34 2607.96 2648.59 Eksogen HCOW 56.73 56.72 56.72 56.71 56.70 56.70 56.69 Lampiran 11. Lanjutan Variabel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen LASMIN 565.20 606.94 611.80 655.34 707.83 662.84 717.46 Endogen LASMIS 2849.09 2911.35 2984.22 3065.52 3153.03 3245.12 3340.79 Endogen LASMIR 2294.99 2331.43 2374.39 2422.99 2476.32 2533.60 2594.28 Endogen YIESIN 4.2387 4.1384 4.1851 4.0737 3.9273 4.1788 4.0247 Endogen YIESIS 4.0150 4.0055 3.9893 3.9709 3.9535 3.9401 3.9304 Endogen YIESIR 3.2267 3.2083 3.1649 3.1246 3.0979 3.0838 3.0791 Endogen PRODSI 21239.99 21653.23 21979.92 22413.51 22916.94 23369.11 24006.19 Endogen SDSI 7377.66 7664.59 7928.28 8192.53 8456.20 8707.09 8973.31 Endogen SXSI 16964.17 17206.31 17362.80 17628.03 17965.35 18254.06 18729.90 Endogen XSI 15368.47 15549.38 15667.00 15890.95 16185.33 16441.21 16866.68 Endogen CSI 5781.96 6007.67 6232.48 6455.46 6676.17 6894.24 7110.10 Endogen HESI 462.77 450.47 444.40 441.83 441.54 444.11 446.64 Endogen HDSI 4880.57 4829.86 4805.08 4801.17 4812.70 4841.55 4875.03 Endogen XSM 15932.41 16259.00 16625.57 17020.25 17434.52 17862.43 18299.66 Endogen HESM 467.51 449.20 438.44 432.41 429.40 429.84 430.69 Endogen XKA 6169.23 6377.88 6582.28 6786.47 6993.83 7203.79 7411.89 Endogen XMA 1406.80 1449.43 1484.91 1515.74 1543.68 1569.84 1594.86 Endogen SDKA 1220.59 1264.80 1311.59 1357.51 1399.60 1438.72 1479.50 Endogen SDMA 539.94 548.98 556.89 564.24 571.15 577.73 584.08 Endogen CKA 734.80 763.51 792.81 822.10 851.01 879.67 908.53 Endogen CMA 399.57 406.67 412.39 416.74 420.85 425.26 429.11 Endogen HEKA 549.94 579.39 575.84 561.57 563.56 582.17 583.51 Endogen HEMA 691.53 684.76 683.60 684.73 686.64 688.98 691.19 Endogen HDKA 390.47 387.05 384.91 382.31 381.18 382.56 383.44 Endogen HDMA 278.89 269.52 263.23 258.88 255.89 254.04 252.74 Variabel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen LASMIN 737.57 736.49 753.68 752.95 748.29 791.01 785.16 Endogen LASMIS 3438.98 3539.19 3640.94 3743.81 3847.53 3951.89 4056.67 Endogen LASMIR 2657.73 2723.50 2791.24 2860.61 2931.37 3003.29 3076.16 Endogen YIESIN 4.0123 4.0867 4.0871 4.1609 4.2506 4.1475 4.2427 Endogen YIESIS 3.9245 3.9223 3.9231 3.9261 3.9309 3.9361 3.9419 Endogen YIESIR 3.0813 3.0895 3.1025 3.1186 3.1360 3.1535 3.1702 Endogen PRODSI 24644.83 25305.84 26023.99 26752.69 27497.60 28306.79 29074.36 Endogen SDSI 9236.88 9500.74 9769.77 10039.65 10311.32 10590.74 10866.17 Endogen SXSI 19209.12 19712.17 20273.37 20845.76 21434.71 22087.95 22699.52 Endogen XSI 17296.37 17748.12 18251.86 18765.29 19293.14 19877.52 20424.27 Endogen CSI 7324.13 7536.69 7748.26 7959.18 8169.74 8380.30 8590.92 Endogen HESI 449.61 452.82 455.60 458.05 460.15 461.27 462.44 Endogen HDSI 4911.81 4950.64 4988.03 5023.40 5056.47 5084.29 5110.71 Endogen XSM 18743.27 19191.24 19642.16 20095.06 20549.29 21004.36 21460.02 Endogen HESM 432.00 433.62 434.80 435.53 435.81 434.97 434.01 Endogen XKA 7620.51 7830.75 8041.23 8250.27 8461.67 8672.99 8884.38 Endogen XMA 1619.15 1642.93 1666.36 1689.60 1712.70 1735.72 1758.67 Endogen SDKA 1519.67 1558.24 1596.62 1636.52 1674.14 1711.94 1749.76 Endogen SDMA 590.28 596.43 602.56 608.65 614.71 620.77 626.82 Endogen CKA 937.28 965.83 994.34 1022.97 1051.32 1079.68 1108.02 Endogen CMA 432.62 436.16 439.62 442.55 445.67 448.80 451.90 Endogen HEKA 583.21 591.32 599.17 592.67 601.15 608.54 615.55 Endogen HEMA 693.64 696.92 701.02 705.33 710.26 715.59 721.13 Endogen HDKA 383.89 384.99 386.41 386.49 387.43 388.72 390.14 Endogen HDMA 251.73 251.06 250.71 250.39 250.29 250.38 250.62 Lampiran 11. Lanjutan Variabel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen XKB 2695.00 2779.04 2862.57 2944.57 3026.90 3108.64 3190.16 Endogen SDKB 4138.36 4198.86 4263.29 4331.44 4400.64 4471.32 4542.77 Endogen CKB 4103.21 4166.12 4217.96 4276.83 4317.91 4358.99 4395.47 Endogen HEKB 614.95 616.29 620.86 621.11 625.40 628.31 631.44 Endogen HDKB 415.98 418.68 420.57 420.93 420.17 418.50 416.05 Endogen XKUSA 1019.24 1032.11 1041.96 1054.72 1069.02 1083.64 1097.16 Endogen XRUSA 211.95 218.05 224.93 232.12 239.52 246.97 254.49 Endogen SDKUSA 10214.62 10353.90 10439.93 10575.74 10780.32 10998.28 11182.35 Endogen SDRUSA 1297.02 1332.20 1377.98 1426.42 1471.12 1518.71 1569.14 Endogen CKUSA 7861.45 7924.27 7995.59 8071.14 8156.45 8238.82 8324.50 Endogen CRUSA 1161.92 1212.66 1253.23 1295.53 1334.31 1377.44 1418.34 Endogen MRUSA 912.35 960.24 998.72 1032.74 1063.85 1095.94 1121.96 Endogen HEKUSA 691.94 711.72 714.89 720.45 726.82 737.61 736.54 Endogen HERUSA 772.60 767.73 774.46 778.86 785.57 787.77 792.16 Endogen HDKUSA 724.91 730.98 736.76 738.52 734.22 729.96 724.41 Endogen HDRUSA 885.90 883.22 891.90 898.14 906.72 910.78 917.01 Endogen HMRUSA 692.53 691.68 685.48 678.38 674.00 673.69 677.37 Endogen XRCD 1412.68 1394.85 1377.08 1412.10 1455.89 1512.63 1574.40 Endogen CRCD 465.04 467.43 469.65 471.74 473.74 475.71 477.66 Endogen HERCD 600.44 605.00 614.17 617.45 616.78 612.23 605.80 Endogen HDRCD 634.71 639.35 648.82 652.37 651.75 646.95 640.05 Endogen CSC 5708.86 5753.95 5809.45 5880.06 5968.64 6068.30 6183.20 Endogen CKC 3605.70 3727.21 3850.89 3977.00 4103.27 4228.04 4353.25 Endogen CRC 5517.70 5663.31 5808.00 5951.99 6098.83 6249.41 6398.93 Endogen MSC 6090.09 6137.93 6195.79 6268.86 6360.19 6462.60 6580.75 Variabel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen XKB 3271.27 3352.18 3433.56 3513.80 3594.55 3675.18 3756.48 Endogen SDKB 4614.98 4687.62 4759.93 4833.49 4906.58 4979.82 5052.43 Endogen CKB 4431.96 4466.67 4491.43 4530.64 4559.06 4588.50 4607.45 Endogen HEKB 633.61 635.42 639.10 637.98 639.11 639.16 641.29 Endogen HDKB 413.00 409.41 405.13 400.68 395.61 390.14 384.05 Endogen XKUSA 1110.85 1124.40 1137.98 1152.07 1166.60 1180.35 1193.92 Endogen XRUSA 262.02 269.61 277.21 284.83 292.44 300.05 307.65 Endogen SDKUSA 11334.40 11487.37 11660.78 11846.83 12028.32 12199.61 12366.37 Endogen SDRUSA 1607.31 1650.19 1693.03 1733.62 1775.24 1819.11 1858.36 Endogen CKUSA 8407.90 8490.52 8575.49 8666.18 8752.49 8836.97 8919.41 Endogen CRUSA 1458.91 1497.12 1534.38 1569.46 1606.12 1643.22 1680.89 Endogen MRUSA 1157.66 1189.60 1218.58 1245.78 1273.23 1299.04 1329.86 Endogen HEKUSA 734.17 737.58 741.44 737.60 739.62 741.92 746.20 Endogen HERUSA 797.59 806.61 816.01 826.24 835.43 844.30 852.61 Endogen HDKUSA 721.67 721.65 719.83 713.64 710.15 707.68 706.37 Endogen HDRUSA 924.66 935.87 947.42 959.76 971.04 981.96 992.42 Endogen HMRUSA 683.84 691.03 697.61 703.20 707.94 712.10 716.28 Endogen XRCD 1654.94 1742.77 1811.01 1867.24 1912.86 1951.83 1979.92 Endogen CRCD 479.62 481.60 483.57 485.51 487.40 489.22 490.95 Endogen HERCD 596.79 586.23 578.48 574.46 574.12 576.43 581.55 Endogen HDRCD 630.32 618.90 610.31 605.63 604.86 606.97 612.11 Endogen CSC 6310.63 6449.27 6597.90 6752.79 6915.19 7083.73 7254.43 Endogen CKC 4478.73 4603.49 4727.64 4852.59 4976.55 5099.84 5222.54 Endogen CRC 6548.16 6698.61 6849.40 6998.20 7148.55 7299.08 7449.56 Endogen MSC 6711.76 6854.28 7007.14 7166.49 7333.62 7507.19 7682.96 Lampiran 11. Lanjutan Variabel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen MKC 2577.84 2637.20 2715.62 2807.69 2905.07 3002.50 3103.20 Endogen MRC 358.63 354.81 356.04 359.50 365.44 374.04 383.04 Endogen HMSC 498.35 486.63 480.63 477.51 476.28 477.76 478.80 Endogen HMKC 597.13 616.20 614.91 608.59 611.82 623.82 625.32 Endogen HMRC 645.29 645.75 646.85 647.50 648.60 649.92 652.15 Endogen CSID 5153.07 5319.83 5484.22 5648.03 5812.20 5975.88 6141.47 Endogen CKID 2823.10 2916.32 3010.02 3110.97 3208.45 3295.73 3386.84 Endogen MSID 5272.08 5351.19 5437.02 5542.58 5663.42 5788.28 5934.13 Endogen MKID 1400.12 1518.93 1619.91 1539.02 1628.18 1636.35 1668.09 Endogen HMSID 519.11 507.59 501.60 499.10 498.85 501.22 503.83 Endogen HMKID 630.65 662.40 661.38 651.43 655.07 671.39 671.44 Endogen CSP 2110.40 2175.07 2241.48 2307.44 2372.36 2435.90 2498.67 Endogen MSP 2025.60 2040.52 2076.67 2134.96 2211.09 2299.69 2395.23 Endogen HMSP 567.23 553.38 545.19 541.25 540.25 542.45 545.37 Endogen CSEU 3423.42 3517.13 3618.15 3723.08 3830.16 3937.34 4047.38 Endogen CKEU 1842.00 1835.52 1848.07 1870.30 1886.24 1891.69 1903.35 Endogen CREU 2880.11 2953.22 3022.58 3093.26 3168.42 3250.98 3340.07 Endogen CMEU 2260.60 2328.03 2384.71 2426.68 2464.43 2503.50 2539.38 Endogen MSEU 7457.08 7774.88 8093.35 8413.37 8735.19 9058.06 9383.07 Endogen MKEU 1077.34 1074.41 1091.43 1116.66 1133.95 1140.65 1155.21 Endogen MREU 2435.17 2505.38 2570.85 2637.83 2708.69 2786.60 2870.04 Endogen MMEU 2476.83 2486.98 2518.23 2553.82 2590.62 2630.52 2671.14 Endogen HMSEU 559.70 550.31 545.97 544.18 544.05 546.30 548.17 Endogen HMKEU 648.00 669.16 667.43 660.17 663.92 677.75 679.67 Endogen HMREU 769.07 771.71 775.77 779.55 784.07 788.94 795.05 Variabel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen MKC 3206.05 3308.47 3410.58 3515.20 3618.27 3720.55 3822.21 Endogen MRC 392.04 401.62 411.52 420.60 430.15 439.94 449.77 Endogen HMSC 480.21 481.83 482.93 483.70 484.12 483.53 483.10 Endogen HMKC 626.52 632.55 638.11 635.50 641.96 647.22 652.31 Endogen HMRC 655.64 660.07 665.07 670.42 675.77 680.76 685.46 Endogen CSID 6308.52 6476.90 6647.06 6818.78 6991.89 7166.87 7342.64 Endogen CKID 3481.31 3573.38 3664.16 3762.34 3856.37 3948.30 4038.91 Endogen MSID 6083.84 6237.91 6398.89 6562.12 6727.22 6897.53 7063.36 Endogen MKID 1679.74 1698.14 1803.13 1835.62 1895.31 1944.51 2003.28 Endogen HMSID 506.79 509.98 512.83 515.34 517.51 518.82 520.06 Endogen HMKID 670.75 677.20 682.81 675.98 682.82 687.82 692.54 Endogen CSP 2560.98 2623.00 2685.02 2747.16 2809.50 2872.23 2935.19 Endogen MSP 2487.67 2570.28 2640.46 2698.36 2746.09 2788.45 2830.51 Endogen HMSP 548.83 552.64 556.15 559.29 562.03 563.82 565.42 Endogen CSEU 4159.54 4272.13 4383.62 4491.61 4595.62 4697.07 4796.04 Endogen CKEU 1919.31 1934.09 1949.64 1972.83 1991.10 2008.34 2025.20 Endogen CREU 3434.28 3531.66 3629.82 3726.74 3821.02 3911.64 3998.87 Endogen CMEU 2578.81 2622.78 2666.69 2705.86 2748.89 2790.36 2831.27 Endogen MSEU 9710.72 10040.79 10372.65 10704.73 11035.50 11364.30 11690.37 Endogen MKEU 1172.80 1187.81 1203.47 1227.27 1244.45 1261.30 1277.91 Endogen MREU 2957.31 3046.79 3136.50 3224.65 3310.20 3392.47 3471.69 Endogen MMEU 2715.81 2767.18 2823.35 2879.54 2938.97 2999.61 3060.86 Endogen HMSEU 550.38 552.76 554.69 556.34 557.68 558.14 558.74 Endogen HMKEU 681.28 688.42 695.03 692.35 700.00 706.29 712.39 Endogen HMREU 802.84 811.88 821.67 831.92 842.18 851.96 861.36 Lampiran 11. Lanjutan Variabel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen HMMEU 778.25 774.17 773.83 774.59 775.68 777.02 778.17 Endogen CKIR 728.43 734.03 741.83 753.25 763.19 768.77 775.86 Endogen CMIR 209.25 217.38 224.39 230.50 236.33 242.19 247.75 Endogen MKIR 586.58 589.10 594.48 604.18 611.13 611.67 614.17 Endogen MMIR 217.21 226.13 233.76 240.36 246.63 252.94 258.91 Endogen HMKIR 625.98 659.43 656.53 644.43 648.89 668.61 669.74 Endogen HMMIR 603.41 589.86 578.18 567.88 558.36 549.31 540.35 Endogen CMMS 226.99 220.39 219.29 222.05 226.61 231.07 234.30 Endogen MMMS 191.86 188.99 193.13 200.22 207.34 212.26 214.46 Endogen HMMMS 583.64 572.81 560.15 547.54 539.15 531.71 522.30 Endogen HSW 539.18 527.25 522.09 520.34 520.81 524.48 527.64 Endogen HKW 642.62 679.80 676.37 663.12 669.42 693.59 696.65 Endogen HRW 772.25 776.77 783.09 789.04 795.93 803.24 812.13 Endogen HMW 826.06 818.54 818.70 821.13 824.23 827.85 831.08 Endogen XSW 34956.83 35520.61 36073.77 36770.06 37562.29 38333.74 39286.88 Endogen MSW 33194.27 33571.33 34095.57 34758.93 35535.17 36384.30 37312.08 Endogen XKW 12278.79 12695.01 12945.61 13620.06 13697.06 14071.95 14382.32 Endogen MKW 11018.89 12011.94 11759.14 11982.35 12281.55 12941.24 12977.77 Endogen XRW 4326.55 4358.31 4396.68 4491.50 4597.27 4717.18 4842.84 Endogen MRW 4123.26 4187.21 4255.55 4312.06 4388.21 4465.66 4565.46 Endogen XMW 4870.75 5005.13 5132.34 5254.90 5374.59 5492.48 5609.25 Endogen MMW 5006.39 5063.22 5146.87 5236.77 5327.58 5419.33 5508.74 Variabel 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen HMMEU 779.56 781.64 784.31 787.04 790.29 793.77 797.39 Endogen CKIR 784.05 791.04 797.55 807.09 814.92 822.22 829.28 Endogen CMIR 253.13 258.53 263.89 269.02 274.25 279.48 284.69 Endogen MKIR 617.81 619.44 620.22 625.00 627.08 628.34 629.17 Endogen MMIR 264.67 270.44 276.17 281.64 287.22 292.80 298.36 Endogen HMKIR 670.24 679.18 687.24 680.91 690.50 697.98 705.15 Endogen HMMIR 531.56 523.28 515.58 508.19 501.25 494.68 488.34 Endogen CMMS 235.96 236.34 236.08 235.80 235.92 236.55 237.62 Endogen MMMS 214.36 213.06 211.66 210.91 211.08 212.04 213.43 Endogen HMMMS 513.04 505.37 498.12 490.56 483.63 477.31 471.05 Endogen HSW 531.24 535.09 538.33 541.18 543.63 544.90 546.35 Endogen HKW 699.14 711.44 722.81 717.69 730.90 741.71 752.18 Endogen HRW 823.11 835.66 849.15 863.22 877.28 890.76 903.76 Endogen HMW 834.80 839.95 846.29 852.76 860.29 868.32 876.62 Endogen XSW 40252.51 41245.87 42295.05 43356.51 44434.13 45569.41 46667.86 Endogen MSW 38280.47 39275.36 40290.28 41311.80 42338.85 43375.69 44411.27 Endogen XKW 14857.25 15099.30 15456.96 15788.69 16187.59 16494.51 16846.63 Endogen MKW 13312.80 13689.39 14031.48 14044.70 14615.26 14904.27 15239.34 Endogen XRW 4987.68 5140.10 5273.06 5394.12 5504.59 5608.43 5701.41 Endogen MRW 4688.40 4819.61 4949.15 5077.80 5199.80 5311.27 5418.39 Endogen XMW 5725.28 5840.80 5955.96 6070.94 6185.78 6300.54 6415.23 Endogen MMW 5599.69 5696.14 5797.28 5898.81 6004.61 6112.41 6221.23 Lampiran 12. Program Simulasi Dasar dan Peramalan Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012- 2025 PROC SIMNLIN DATA=TESIS1 DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=A; ENDOGENOUS HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA; EXOGENOUS TREN PRODCOW HCOW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI ERI PESI STOKSI LPOPI LASIN LASIS LASIR L3LASIN L3LASIS L3LASIR ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD ERCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS LPOPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID IPID POPID TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR; PARM B0 241.8316 B1 - 0.02120 B2 0.023313 B3 0.474437 C0 182.7619 C1 - 0.03417 C2 0.051413 C3 0.487471 D0 143.6909 D1 - 0.01026 D2 0.062441 D3 0.539133 E0 380.0096 E1 - 0.15911 E2 0.243896 I0 0.089329 I1 - 1.12078 I2 0.858698 J0 243.9014 J1 0.116390 J2 - 0.21126 J3 - 0.43739 J4 0.804695 K0 72.46956 K1 0.013851 K2 - 0.24278 K3 0.778981 L0 0.000224 L1 - 0.00153 L2 - 0.00406 L3 0.992763 M0 0.001040 M1 - 0.00015 M2 0.88328 N0 0.000087 N1 0.000197 N2 - 0.00817 N3 - 0.00149 N4 0.584751 O0 4.662357 O1 0.157079 O2 - 464.243 O3 0.300709 P0 0.745129 P1 - 0.00176 P2 - 11.0698 P3 0.167411 Q0 1.405829 Q1 - 453.433 Q2 - 57.9413 Q3 0.008254 Q4 0.896068 R0 - 3450.09 R1 - 0.05438 R2 961.7034 R3 23.42292 R4 0.695843 S0 15.75933 S1 0.855158 S2 - 14.0676 S3 - 0.00528 S4 0.244956 T0 0.069857 T1 - 6.67733 T2 0.812459 T3 0.388918 T4 0.465425 U0 351.7565 U1 0.110846 U2 - 6.46154 U3 - 3.66984 U4 0.454223 V0 0.507638 V1 - 0.14320 V2 0.169727 W0 - 723.471 W1 0.229701 W2 - 0.41627 W3 100.4155 W4 0.440950 W5 0.116749 X0 - 903.105 X1 - 0.19697 X2 - 2.17634 X3 11.50532 X4 0.683214 Y0 39.59796 Y1 0.870944 Y2 - 4.28929 Y3 - 0.01236 Y4 0.066310 Z0 127.8220 Z1 0.104366 Z2 - 2.90880 Z3 0.521371 AA0 - 2039.83 AA1 - 41.4378 AA2 131.3494 AA3 66.68074 AB0 0.163538 AB1 - 0.41667 AB2 10.76324 AB3 0.909194 AC0 107.3276 AC1 0.550047 AC2 0.183935 AD0 0.162831 AD1 - 0.32333 AD2 0.399137 AD3 0.621045 AE0 - 225.772 AE1 5.172079 AE2 6.433590 Lampiran 12. Lanjutan AF0 - 27.2357 AF1 0.065140 AF2 - 0.22921 AF3 - 2.04815 AF4 0.794059 AF5 0.011916 AG0 343.4989 AG1 0.457125 AG2 2.036429 AH0 0.855283 AH1 8.448790 AH2 - 0.42908 AI0 0.680184 AI1 7.412285 CG0 0.519024 CG1 - 0.12344 CG2 0.206917 CH0 7.249052 CH1 1.065817 CH2 0.013472 CH3 - 0.02424 CH4 0.066539 AJ0 441.8021 AJ1 65.10564 AJ2 - 0.27971 AJ3 0.077960 AK0 0.066989 AK1 - 0.05650 AK2 0.431599 AL0 56.36600 AL1 - 0.05946 AL2 - 0.52080 AL3 0.644072 AL4 0.230138 AM0 - 70.3891 AM1 0.709185 AM2 25.79298 AN0 - 3516.09 AN1 - 0.79295 AN2 - 6.57461 AN3 0.299084 AN4 16.70166 AO0 0.636471 AO1 0.079828 AO2 - 0.15465 AO3 0.542992 CE0 0.990814 CE1 - 0.00435 CE2 0.015832 CE3 0.063175 AP0 5.123725 AP1 - 0.32645 AP2 0.583089 AP3 0.414745 AQ0 - 169.133 AQ1 - 0.00666 AQ2 4.062721 AQ3 1.131358 AQ4 0.797579 AR0 0.689993 AR1 0.334226 AS0 - 799.987 AS1 - 0.30548 AS2 12.74509 AS3 0.433641 AT0 2310.386 AT1 - 0.13369 AT2 - 9.75469 AT3 - 39.9513 AT4 784.9596 AT5 0.463356 AU0 0.359474 AU1 7.690904 AU2 0.345766 AV0 353.3033 AV1 - 2.37764 AV2 - 27.9014 AV3 82.52237 AW0 216.4328 AW1 - 0.00951 AW2 - 14.3876 AW3 0.112771 AW4 0.369714 AX0 175.0135 AX1 0.563480 AX2 4.251363 AY0 133.9674 AY1 0.746373 AY2 1.444464 AZ0 0.798185 AZ1 7.037101 BA0 336.7428 BA1 0.486808 BA2 2.017002 BB0 - 0.77048 BB1 0.615640 BB2 0.503863 BB3 1400.688 BB4 0.026403 BB5 0.374336 BC0 - 825.988 BC1 - 732.909 BC2 0.478277 BC3 0.118464 BD0 - 10473.3 BD1 - 1.76015 BD2 1.236793 BD3 590.7302 BD4 0.040975 BD5 24.40434 BD6 0.604560 BE0 - 5268.47 BE1 - 0.59224 BE2 0.768582 BE3 15.21893 BE4 10.89263 BE5 0.908926 BF0 - 0.30298 BF1 - 91.3233 BF2 0.702171 BG0 - 0.23946 BG1 0.399460 BG2 0.871883 BH0 154.2939 BH1 - 0.72911 BH2 0.986633 BI0 30.12616 BI1 - 0.18123 BI2 - 0.30879 BI3 0.761962 BI4 0.650198 BJ0 - 13375.0 BJ1 - 2.99543 BJ2 0.175097 BJ3 1.794438 BJ4 145.2790 BJ5 1.223164 BJ6 3.447816 BK0 - 1707.87 BK1 - 0.16965 BK2 0.014549 BK3 1.844396 BK4 0.796551 BL0 0.854980 BL1 2.071625 BM0 264.6960 BM1 0.494498 BM2 0.215192 BN0 127.0903 BN1 0.605879 BN2 3.956275 BO0 - 6128.81 BO1 - 0.00352 BO2 0.257495 BO3 0.114741 BO4 6.436799 BO5 0.362579 BP0 - 0.29663 BP1 0.346245 BP2 0.593307 BQ0 41.04146 BQ1 - 0.02139 BQ2 - 0.44848 BQ3 0.457126 BQ4 0.288498 BR0 274.0120 BR1 - 0.12175 BR2 1.029408 BS0 10490.41 BS1 - 91.5287 BS2 - 180.130 BS3 - 70.7774 BT0 42.28541 BT1 0.665738 BT2 23.18987 BT3 0.218731 BU0 0.748755 BU1 5.162068 BV0 - 10086.8 BV1 - 1.17667 BV2 0.756096 BV3 11.43984 BW0 - 4107.24 BW1 - 0.68285 BW2 0.414404 BW3 57.07257 BW4 1.570795 BW5 0.716798 Lampiran 12. Lanjutan BX0 64.95581 BX1 - 0.07863 BX2 - 0.96035 BX3 0.986032 BY0 0.870527 BY1 2.671920 BZ0 0.295125 BZ1 5.422256 BZ2 0.465672 CA0 - 0.22872 CA1 0.132785 CA2 4.461250 CA3 0.623417 CB0 - 839.868 CB1 - 12.2172 CB2 13.86352 CB3 2.248393 CB4 0.497034 CC0 - 0.06288 CC1 - 1.07570 CC2 1.106310 CC3 0.086497 CD0 - 0.00270 CD1 - 0.92889 CD2 1.144923 ; HSW = B0+B1XSW+B2MSW+B3LHSW; HKW = C0+C1XKW+C2MKW+C3LHKW; HRW = D0+D1XRW+D2MRW+D3LHRW; HMW = E0+E1XMW+E2MMW; LASMIN = I0LHESI+I1RHCPI+I2L3LASIN; LASMIS = J0+J1LHESI+J2RHCPI+J3USPI+J4L3LASIS; LASMIR = K0+K1LHDSI+K2USPI+K3LLASIR; YIESIN = L0HESI+L1RHCPI+L2DLASMIN+L3LYIESIN; YIESIS = M0HESI+M1DLASMIS+M2LYIESIS; YIESIR = N0HDSI+N1LHDSI+N2RHCPI+N3DLASMIR+N4LYIESIR; HDSI = O0HESI+O1ERI+O2RTSDSI+O3LHDSI; HESI = P0HSW+P1ERI+P2RXSI+P3LHESI; XSI = Q0HESI+Q1RHDSI+Q2PESI+Q3ERI+Q4SXSI; CSI = R0+R1HDSI+R2RHCOW+R3POPI+R4LCSI; HESM = S0+S1HSW+S2ERM+S3XSM+S4LHESM; XSM = T0HESM+T1PESM+T2STOKSM+T3PRODSM+T4LXSM; HEKB = U0+U1HKW+U2ERB+U3PEKB+U4LHEKB; HDKB = V0HEKB+V1SDKB+V2CKB; XKB = W0+W1HEKB+W2HDKB+W3ERB+W4PRODKB+W5LXKB; CKB = X0+X1HDKB+X2RRHDKBRHCOW+X3POPB+X4LCKB; HEKA = Y0+Y1HKW+Y2ERA+Y3XKA+Y4LHEKA; HDKA = Z0+Z1HEKA+Z2RSDCKA+Z3LHDKA; CKA = AA0+AA1RHDKA+AA2RHCOW+AA3POPA; XKA = AB0HEKA+AB1HDKA+AB2ERA+AB3PRODKA; HEMA = AC0+AC1HMW+AC2LHEMA; HDMA = AD0HEMA+AD1SDMA+AD2CMA+AD3LHDMA; CMA = AE0RHDMKA+AE1HCOW+AE2POPA; XMA = AF0+AF1HEMA+AF2HDMA+AF3PEMA+AF4PRODMA+AF5LXMA; HEKUSA = AG0+AG1HKW+AG2SEKUSA; HERUSA = AH0HRW+AH1SERUSA+AH2XRUSA; HMRUSA = AI0HRW+AI1TMRUSA; HDKUSA = CG0HEKUSA+CG1SDKUSA+CG2CKUSA; HDRUSA = CH0+CH1HERUSA+CH2HMRUSA+CH3SDRUSA+CH4CRUSA; XKUSA = AJ0+AJ1RHEKUSA+AJ2HDKUSA+AJ3PRODKUSA; XRUSA = AK0HERUSA+AK1HDRUSA+AK2PRODRUSA; MRUSA = AL0+AL1HMRUSA+AL2STOKRUSA+AL3CRUSA+AL4LMRUSA; CKUSA = AM0RHDKUSAHCOW+AM1HDRUSA+AM2POPUSA; CRUSA = AN0+AN1HDRUSA+AN2RHDRUSAHCOW+AN3HDKUSA+AN4POPUSA; HERCD = AO0HRW+AO1SERCD+AO2XRCD+AO3LHERCD; HDRCD = CE0HERCD+CE1PRODRCD+CE2CRCD+CE3LHDRCD; XRCD = AP0RHERCD+AP1HDRCD+AP2PRODRCD+AP3LXRCD; CRCD = AQ0+AQ1HDRCD+AQ2HCOW+AQ3POPCD+AQ4LCRCD; HMSP = AR0HSW+AR1LHMSP; CSP = AS0+AS1HMSP+AS2POPP+AS3LCSP; MSP = AT0+AT1HMSP+AT2ERP+AT3TMSP+AT4RCSP+AT5LMSP; HMMMS = AU0HMW+AU1TMMMS+AU2LHMMMS; MMMS = AV0+AV1RHMMMS+AV2ERMS+AV3RCMMS; CMMS = AW0+AW1HMMMS+AW2ERMS+AW3POPMS+AW4LCMMS; Lampiran 12. Lanjutan HMKEU = AX0+AX1HKW+AX2TMKEU; HMSEU = AY0+AY1HSW+AY2TMSEU; HMREU = AZ0HRW+AZ1TMREU; HMMEU = BA0+BA1HMW+BA2TMMEU; CKEU = BB0HMKEU+BB1HMREU+BB2HMMEU+BB3RHCOW+BB4IPEU +BB5LCKEU; CMEU = BC0+BC1RHMMREU+BC2HMKEU+BC3IPEU; CSEU = BD0+BD1HMSEU+BD2HMMEU+BD3RHCOW+BD4IPEU+BD5POPEU +BD6LCSEU; CREU = BE0+BE1HMREU+BE2HMSEU+BE3HCOW+BE4POPEU+BE5LCREU; MKEU = BF0HMKEU+BF1EREU+BF2CKEU; MSEU = BG0HMSEU+BG1CSEU+BG2LMSEU; MREU = BH0+BH1HMREU+BH2CREU; MMEU = BI0+BI1HMMEU+BI2PRODMEU+BI3CMEU+BI4LMMEU; HMSC = BL0HSW+BL1TMSC; HMKC = BM0+BM1HKW+BM2TMKC; HMRC = BN0+BN1HRW+BN2TMRC; CSC = BJ0+BJ1HMSC+BJ2HMKC+BJ3HMRC+BJ4HCOW+BJ5IPC+BJ6POPC; CKC = BK0+BK1HMKC+BK2IPC+BK3POPC+BK4LCKC; CRC = BO0+BO1HMRC+BO2HMKC+BO3IPC+BO4POPC+BO5LCRC; MKC = BP0HMKC+BP1CKC+BP2LMKC; MRC = BQ0+BQ1HMRC+BQ2PRODRC+BQ3CRC+BQ4LMRC; MSC = BR0+BR1HMSC+BR2CSC; HMSID = BT0+BT1HSW+BT2RCSID+BT3LHMSID; HMKID = BU0HKW+BU1TMKID; CSID = BV0+BV1HMSID+BV2IPID+BV3POPID; CKID = BW0+BW1HMKID+BW2HMSID+BW3HCOW+BW4POPID+BW5LCKID; MSID = BS0+BS1RRHMSIDRCSID+BS2TMSID+BS3ERID; MKID = BX0+BX1HMKID+BX2PRODKID+BX3CKID; HMKIR = BY0HKW+BY1TMKIR; HMMIR = BZ0HMW+BZ1TMMIR+BZ2LHMMIR; CKIR = CA0HMKIR+CA1HMMIR+CA2POPIR+CA3LCKIR; CMIR = CB0+CB1RHMMKIR+CB2HCOW+CB3POPIR+CB4LCMIR; MKIR = CC0HMKIR+CC1PRODKIR+CC2CKIR+CC3LMKIR; MMIR = CD0HMMIR+CD1PRODMIR+CD2CMIR; PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW; XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; XMW = XMA+XMRW; MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI; SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB; SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA; Lampiran 12. Lanjutan LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS; LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR; LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI = LAGXSI; LHCOW = LAGHCOW LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI=LAGXSI; LXSM = LAGXSM; LMSC = LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU; LMSID = LAGMSID LMSP = LAGMSP; LCSC = LAGCSC; LCSEU = LAGCSEU; LCSID = LAGCSID; LCSP = LAGCSP; LHSW = LAGHSW; LHESI = LAGHESI; LHESM = LAGHESM; LHDSI = LAGHDSI; LHMSC = LAGHMSC; LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU; LHMSID = LAGHMSID; LHMSP = LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA; LXKB = LAGXKB; LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC; LMKID = LAGMKID; LMKEU = LAGMKEU; LMKIR = LAGMKIR; LCKA = LAGCKA; LCKB = LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA; LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID = LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU; LCKIR = LAGCKIR; LHKW = LAGHKW; LHEKA = LAGHEKA; LHEKB = LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC = LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID; LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU; LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD; LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA; LMREU = LAGMREU; LMRC = LAGMRC; LCRCD = LAGCRCD; LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA; LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC; LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD; LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA; LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU; LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU; LMMMS = LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA; LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR; LHMW = LAGHMW; LHEMA = LAGHEMA; LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU; LHMMMS = LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR; LHDKB = LAGHDKB; LHDKA = LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA; LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; ID TAHUN; RANGE TAHUN = 2012 TO 2025 ; RUN ; PROC PRINT DATA =A; VAR LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR PRODSI SDSI SXSI CSI XSI HDSI HESI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB SDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA SDKA SDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA SDKUSA SDRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR HSW HKW HRW HMW XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW; RUN ; Lampiran 13. Hasil Simulasi Dasar dan Peramalan Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012- 2025 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 184 Endogenous 97 Exogenous 87 Parameters 326 Range Variable Tahun ID Variables 1 Equations 99 Number of Statements 180 Program Lag Length 1 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= TESIS1 OUT= A Solution Summary Variables Solved 97 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range Tahun First 2012 Last 2025 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 9.356E-9 Maximum Iterations 3 Total Iterations 37 Average Iterations 2.642857 Observations Processed Read 15 Lagged 1 Solved 14 First 33 Last 46 Lampiran 13. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2025 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label HSW 14 14 533.0 9.3488 532.1 9.9246 H_SWT_W HKW 14 14 699.8 31.6069 699.7 31.6347 H_KDL_W HRW 14 14 826.8 43.8698 826.5 43.8888 H_RAPE_W HMW 14 14 839.0 19.0369 839.0 19.0382 H_MTHR_W LASMIN 14 14 702.3 70.4786 719.0 61.6568 L_TM_PBN LASMIS 14 14 3412.0 396.8 3411.9 396.9 L_TM_PBS LASMIR 14 14 2648.0 256.8 2647.9 256.8 L_TM_PR YIESIN 14 14 4.1253 0.0954 4.1234 0.0956 YELD_PBN YIESIS 14 14 3.9507 0.0318 3.9454 0.0323 YELD_PBS YIESIR 14 14 3.1312 0.0477 3.1276 0.0488 YELD_PR HDSI 14 14 4926.5 109.0 4921.0 113.1 HD_S_INA HESI 14 14 452.3 7.8265 451.4 8.1925 HE_S_INA CSI 14 14 7204.8 901.8 7205.7 901.5 C_S_INA XSI 14 14 17401.8 1689.4 17436.8 1668.0 X_S_INA HESM 14 14 437.0 10.0360 436.0 9.5728 HE_S_MAS XSM 14 14 18579.9 1806.6 18579.8 1806.7 X_S_MAS HEKB 14 14 630.3 9.1369 630.3 9.1382 HE_K_BRL HDKB 14 14 409.2 12.2183 409.1 12.1859 HD_K_BRL CKB 14 14 4393.7 160.2 4393.2 160.3 C_K_BRL XKB 14 14 3228.9 340.9 3228.9 340.9 X_K_BRL HEKA 14 14 584.8 18.4269 584.7 18.4518 HE_K_ARG HDKA 14 14 385.7 2.8940 385.7 2.9025 HD_K_ARG HEMA 14 14 696.8 12.1374 696.8 12.1382 HE_M_ARG HDMA 14 14 256.3 8.6618 256.3 8.6633 HD_M_ARG CKA 14 14 922.3 120.1 922.3 120.1 C_K_ARG CMA 14 14 429.1 16.2352 429.1 16.2350 C_M_ARG XKA 14 14 7520.5 873.7 7520.5 873.7 X_K_ARG XMA 14 14 1599.3 109.3 1599.3 109.3 X_M_ARG HEKUSA 14 14 729.9 15.1236 729.9 15.1264 HE_K_USA HERUSA 14 14 802.7 27.9944 802.4 28.0130 HE_R_USA HMRUSA 14 14 691.8 14.0695 691.6 14.1233 HM_R_USA HDRUSA 14 14 929.1 36.3728 928.8 36.3885 HD_R_USA HDKUSA 14 14 722.9 10.5677 722.8 10.5515 HD_K_USA MRUSA 14 14 1135.7 130.9 1135.9 130.9 M_R_USA CKUSA 14 14 8372.9 346.8 8372.7 346.8 C_K_USA CRUSA 14 14 1431.7 165.4 1431.9 165.4 C_R_USA XKUSA 14 14 1104.6 56.8888 1104.6 56.8864 X_K_USA XRUSA 14 14 258.7 31.1421 258.7 31.1422 X_R_USA HERCD 14 14 595.7 16.6828 595.2 16.7206 HE_R_CD HDRCD 14 14 628.8 18.3816 628.3 18.4269 HD_R_CD CRCD 14 14 478.5 8.2914 478.5 8.2983 C_R_CD XRCD 14 14 1647.2 226.2 1647.4 226.3 X_R_CD HMSP 14 14 553.1 9.4199 552.1 9.8069 HM_S_PKT CSP 14 14 2526.7 264.5 2527.3 264.2 C_S_PKT MSP 14 14 2424.7 293.6 2424.9 293.5 M_S_PKT HMMMS 14 14 521.2 36.0002 521.2 36.0013 HM_M_MS CMMS 14 14 231.1 6.6613 231.1 6.6615 C_M_MS MMMS 14 14 206.8 9.1402 206.8 9.1401 M_M_MS HMKEU 14 14 681.6 18.6329 681.5 18.6487 HM_K_EU HMSEU 14 14 552.0 5.6482 551.3 5.9584 HM_S_EU HMREU 14 14 806.3 30.9976 806.0 31.0145 HM_R_EU HMMEU 14 14 781.8 7.6322 781.8 7.6331 HM_M_EU Lampiran 13. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2025 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label CKEU 14 14 1919.8 62.5593 1919.6 62.5325 C_K_EU CSEU 14 14 4106.6 449.5 4109.6 447.6 C_S_EU CREU 14 14 3411.6 367.9 3408.7 368.4 C_R_EU CMEU 14 14 2560.9 176.3 2560.8 176.3 C_M_EU MKEU 14 14 1168.9 67.5693 1168.8 67.5433 M_K_EU MSEU 14 14 9559.6 1365.3 9567.2 1365.8 M_S_EU MREU 14 14 2932.4 340.6 2929.8 341.1 M_R_EU MMEU 14 14 2722.4 194.0 2722.3 194.0 M_M_EU HMSC 14 14 482.5 5.4258 481.7 5.2462 HM_S_CN HMKC 14 14 626.6 15.7753 626.5 15.7887 HM_K_CN HMRC 14 14 659.2 13.9073 659.0 13.9267 HM_R_CN CSC 14 14 6338.3 514.5 6340.4 512.6 C_S_CN CKC 14 14 4414.8 521.8 4414.8 521.8 C_K_CN CRC 14 14 6477.1 622.9 6477.1 622.9 C_R_CN MSC 14 14 6740.0 529.6 6742.2 527.6 M_S_CN MKC 14 14 3167.9 411.5 3167.9 411.6 M_K_CN MRC 14 14 392.7 33.2023 392.6 33.1988 M_R_CN HMSID 14 14 509.5 7.8255 508.7 8.1983 HM_S_ID HMKID 14 14 669.5 16.3871 669.5 16.4015 HM_K_ID CSID 14 14 6234.8 702.4 6235.7 701.6 C_S_ID CKID 14 14 3434.0 391.1 3433.1 391.6 C_K_ID MSID 14 14 6068.5 593.4 6068.5 593.4 M_S_ID MKID 14 14 1705.0 171.9 1704.1 172.4 M_K_ID HMKIR 14 14 670.3 21.9612 670.3 21.9831 HM_K_IR HMMIR 14 14 539.3 36.5238 539.3 36.5252 HM_M_IR CKIR 14 14 779.4 32.7891 779.4 32.7887 C_K_IR CMIR 14 14 249.3 23.7061 249.3 23.7060 C_M_IR MKIR 14 14 612.7 14.2821 612.8 14.2872 M_K_IR MMIR 14 14 260.5 25.4619 260.5 25.4618 M_M_IR SDSI 14 14 9115.4 1113.7 9121.6 1109.0 SD_S_INA SXSI 14 14 19312.4 1901.2 19352.7 1876.0 SX_S_INA PRODSI 14 14 24656.1 2566.0 24697.3 2538.2 PRDS_INA SDKB 14 14 4584.4 297.0 4584.4 297.0 SD_K_BRL SDKA 14 14 1494.2 169.2 1494.2 169.2 SD_K_ARG SDMA 14 14 585.9 27.3463 585.9 27.3440 SD_M_ARG SDKUSA 14 14 11247.8 713.4 11247.8 713.4 SD_K_USA SDRUSA 14 14 1580.7 183.2 1580.9 183.2 SD_R_USA XSW 14 14 40166.1 3857.8 40200.9 3833.2 X_SWT_W MSW 14 14 38152.5 3762.5 38162.6 3760.4 M_SWT_W XKW 14 14 14601.6 1453.8 14601.6 1453.8 X_KDL_W MKW 14 14 13200.7 1283.3 13199.8 1283.8 M_KDL_W XRW 14 14 4952.8 487.5 4953.1 487.6 X_RAPE_W MRW 14 14 4697.3 436.1 4694.8 436.7 M_RAPE_W XMW 14 14 5659.6 492.8 5659.6 492.8 X_MTHR_W MMW 14 14 5574.2 395.5 5574.2 395.5 M-MTHR_W Lampiran 13. Lanjutan Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen LASMIN 610.02 614.17 655.92 707.33 662.22 717.33 737.33 Endogen LASMIS 2849.09 2911.09 2984.05 3065.22 3152.65 3245.26 3340.64 Endogen LASMIR 2294.99 2331.29 2374.26 2422.79 2476.04 2533.59 2594.20 Endogen YIESIN 4.2382 4.1375 4.1837 4.0715 3.9255 4.1767 4.0223 Endogen YIESIS 4.0126 4.0019 3.9834 3.9623 3.9472 3.9332 3.9230 Endogen YIESIR 3.2257 3.2048 3.1596 3.1168 3.0894 3.0782 3.0740 Endogen PRODSI 21420.67 21662.41 22132.62 22576.66 22693.13 23559.25 24045.71 Endogen SDSI 7400.21 7668.40 7949.05 8216.10 8432.50 8729.91 8980.32 Endogen SXSI 17144.26 17214.54 17514.03 17789.05 17740.05 18442.82 18768.06 Endogen XSI 15526.60 15554.75 15798.93 16030.53 15985.20 16608.53 16899.19 Endogen CSI 5782.55 6008.62 6233.95 6457.58 6677.66 6895.62 7111.45 Endogen HESI 460.46 449.05 441.85 438.47 442.80 442.81 445.44 Endogen HDSI 4869.82 4819.98 4790.23 4781.07 4812.50 4835.43 4867.59 Endogen XSM 15932.22 16258.79 16625.26 17019.82 17434.39 17862.27 18299.48 Endogen HESM 464.86 447.36 435.34 428.29 430.48 428.38 429.20 Endogen XKA 6169.22 6377.88 6582.27 6786.45 6993.82 7203.78 7411.88 Endogen XMA 1406.79 1449.43 1484.91 1515.74 1543.68 1569.83 1594.86 Endogen SDKA 1220.59 1264.80 1311.60 1357.53 1399.61 1438.73 1479.51 Endogen SDMA 539.94 548.98 556.89 564.24 571.15 577.73 584.08 Endogen CKA 734.80 763.51 792.81 822.10 851.02 879.67 908.54 Endogen CMA 399.57 406.67 412.39 416.74 420.85 425.26 429.11 Endogen HEKA 549.91 579.32 575.73 561.40 563.41 582.03 583.38 Endogen HEMA 691.53 684.76 683.60 684.72 686.63 688.97 691.18 Endogen HDKA 390.47 387.04 384.89 382.28 381.15 382.53 383.41 Endogen HDMA 278.89 269.52 263.23 258.88 255.89 254.04 252.74 Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen LASMIN 736.15 753.36 752.63 748.07 790.88 784.91 795.90 Endogen LASMIS 3438.84 3539.20 3640.92 3743.86 3847.63 3951.71 4056.64 Endogen LASMIR 2657.62 2723.47 2791.22 2860.63 2931.43 3003.21 3076.11 Endogen YIESIN 4.0100 4.0844 4.0848 4.1588 4.2482 4.1451 4.2402 Endogen YIESIS 3.9181 3.9165 3.9183 3.9228 3.9263 3.9318 3.9379 Endogen YIESIR 3.0767 3.0863 3.1005 3.1181 3.1360 3.1521 3.1687 Endogen PRODSI 24602.26 25343.63 25994.88 26717.01 27659.69 28257.47 29096.70 Endogen SDSI 9233.24 9505.64 9766.62 10034.90 10330.69 10586.33 10869.16 Endogen SXSI 19165.51 19749.18 20243.79 20809.97 21596.41 22038.20 22721.45 Endogen XSI 17257.43 17781.02 18225.90 18734.36 19435.87 19832.61 20443.62 Endogen CSI 7325.16 7537.48 7748.74 7959.29 8170.14 8380.74 8591.33 Endogen HESI 449.71 452.63 455.99 458.86 458.61 461.04 462.22 Endogen HDSI 4910.04 4949.23 4989.43 5027.60 5050.56 5081.43 5108.85 Endogen XSM 18743.18 19191.19 19642.16 20095.12 20549.20 21004.29 21459.97 Endogen HESM 431.98 433.38 435.23 436.49 434.13 434.59 433.71 Endogen XKA 7620.51 7830.74 8041.23 8250.27 8461.67 8672.99 8884.38 Endogen XMA 1619.15 1642.93 1666.36 1689.60 1712.71 1735.72 1758.67 Endogen SDKA 1519.68 1558.25 1596.62 1636.52 1674.14 1711.94 1749.76 Endogen SDMA 590.28 596.43 602.56 608.65 614.71 620.77 626.82 Endogen CKA 937.28 965.83 994.34 1022.97 1051.32 1079.67 1108.02 Endogen CMA 432.62 436.16 439.62 442.55 445.67 448.80 451.90 Endogen HEKA 583.10 591.24 599.11 592.65 601.12 608.50 615.51 Endogen HEMA 693.63 696.91 701.01 705.32 710.26 715.58 721.13 Endogen HDKA 383.86 384.97 386.39 386.47 387.42 388.71 390.13 Endogen HDMA 251.72 251.06 250.71 250.39 250.29 250.38 250.62 Lampiran 13. Lanjutan Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen XKB 2695.00 2779.03 2862.58 2944.63 3027.01 3108.77 3190.24 Endogen SDKB 4138.36 4198.86 4263.28 4331.38 4400.53 4471.19 4542.69 Endogen CKB 4103.21 4166.12 4217.82 4276.00 4316.27 4357.30 4394.51 Endogen HEKB 614.94 616.28 620.84 621.08 625.37 628.28 631.41 Endogen HDKB 415.98 418.67 420.54 420.78 419.89 418.22 415.88 Endogen XKUSA 1019.25 1032.12 1041.97 1054.74 1069.05 1083.66 1097.19 Endogen XRUSA 211.95 218.05 224.92 232.12 239.52 246.96 254.48 Endogen SDKUSA 10214.62 10353.89 10439.92 10575.72 10780.29 10998.26 11182.32 Endogen SDRUSA 1297.07 1332.29 1378.15 1426.67 1471.37 1518.97 1569.42 Endogen CKUSA 7861.38 7924.14 7995.40 8070.83 8156.18 8238.53 8324.21 Endogen CRUSA 1161.98 1212.77 1253.43 1295.82 1334.59 1377.73 1418.65 Endogen MRUSA 912.40 960.33 998.88 1032.98 1064.10 1096.20 1122.24 Endogen HEKUSA 691.92 711.69 714.83 720.37 726.75 737.54 736.48 Endogen HERUSA 772.52 767.57 774.20 778.46 785.20 787.39 791.77 Endogen HDKUSA 724.88 730.94 736.70 738.41 734.13 729.87 724.32 Endogen HDRUSA 885.82 883.06 891.63 897.72 906.34 910.39 916.60 Endogen HMRUSA 692.46 691.56 685.27 678.06 673.71 673.39 677.05 Endogen XRCD 1412.70 1394.92 1377.21 1412.32 1456.18 1512.98 1574.78 Endogen CRCD 465.05 467.43 469.65 471.74 473.75 475.72 477.67 Endogen HERCD 600.37 604.84 613.86 616.95 616.19 611.57 605.09 Endogen HDRCD 634.65 639.18 648.50 651.86 651.13 646.26 639.30 Endogen CSC 5716.70 5757.34 5817.03 5889.61 5961.92 6073.00 6186.08 Endogen CKC 3605.71 3727.23 3850.91 3977.04 4103.31 4228.09 4353.31 Endogen CRC 5517.72 5663.33 5807.97 5951.97 6098.79 6249.38 6398.94 Endogen MSC 6098.48 6141.56 6203.91 6279.09 6353.02 6467.65 6583.85 Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen XKB 3271.29 3352.20 3433.58 3513.72 3594.64 3675.23 3756.48 Endogen SDKB 4614.96 4687.60 4759.91 4833.56 4906.48 4979.77 5052.43 Endogen CKB 4431.77 4466.51 4491.17 4531.75 4557.50 4587.95 4607.48 Endogen HEKB 633.58 635.40 639.08 637.97 639.10 639.15 641.28 Endogen HDKB 412.96 409.38 405.08 400.85 395.36 390.05 384.05 Endogen XKUSA 1110.87 1124.42 1138.00 1152.08 1166.61 1180.36 1193.93 Endogen XRUSA 262.02 269.61 277.21 284.83 292.44 300.05 307.65 Endogen SDKUSA 11334.39 11487.35 11660.77 11846.82 12028.30 12199.60 12366.36 Endogen SDRUSA 1607.57 1650.43 1693.24 1733.78 1775.40 1819.26 1858.51 Endogen CKUSA 8407.63 8490.29 8575.29 8666.02 8752.32 8836.82 8919.27 Endogen CRUSA 1459.19 1497.38 1534.60 1569.62 1606.29 1643.39 1681.06 Endogen MRUSA 1157.91 1189.84 1218.79 1245.94 1273.39 1299.19 1330.01 Endogen HEKUSA 734.12 737.54 741.41 737.59 739.60 741.90 746.18 Endogen HERUSA 797.23 806.28 815.73 826.04 835.20 844.09 852.41 Endogen HDKUSA 721.59 721.59 719.78 713.60 710.10 707.63 706.33 Endogen HDRUSA 924.28 935.52 947.13 959.54 970.80 981.73 992.21 Endogen HMRUSA 683.55 690.77 697.38 703.04 707.76 711.93 716.12 Endogen XRCD 1655.34 1743.18 1811.41 1867.61 1913.20 1952.14 1980.21 Endogen CRCD 479.63 481.62 483.59 485.53 487.42 489.23 490.97 Endogen HERCD 596.06 585.53 577.83 573.90 573.59 575.94 581.09 Endogen HDRCD 629.56 618.16 609.62 605.02 604.30 606.45 611.62 Endogen CSC 6309.11 6449.54 6596.09 6749.94 6920.67 7083.36 7254.76 Endogen CKC 4478.78 4603.53 4727.68 4852.63 4976.58 5099.86 5222.55 Endogen CRC 6548.13 6698.57 6849.38 6998.18 7148.55 7299.06 7449.51 Endogen MSC 6710.15 6854.58 7005.22 7163.46 7339.49 7506.81 7683.33 Lampiran 13. Lanjutan Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen MKC 2577.85 2637.22 2715.66 2807.75 2905.15 3002.58 3103.29 Endogen MRC 358.63 354.82 356.03 359.50 365.43 374.03 383.04 Endogen HMSC 495.70 485.43 477.98 474.16 478.36 476.02 477.67 Endogen HMKC 597.11 616.16 614.85 608.50 611.74 623.74 625.25 Endogen HMRC 645.23 645.64 646.66 647.22 648.35 649.65 651.87 Endogen CSID 5155.48 5321.43 5486.99 5651.68 5811.08 5977.22 6142.79 Endogen CKID 2822.27 2915.19 3008.29 3108.52 3207.16 3294.41 3385.50 Endogen MSID 5272.06 5351.19 5437.01 5542.57 5663.41 5788.27 5934.13 Endogen MKID 1399.30 1517.82 1618.22 1536.61 1626.92 1635.06 1666.77 Endogen HMSID 517.05 506.21 499.24 495.97 499.79 500.07 502.70 Endogen HMKID 630.62 662.35 661.29 651.30 654.95 671.29 671.33 Endogen CSP 2111.06 2175.87 2242.65 2309.05 2372.91 2436.52 2499.34 Endogen MSP 2025.88 2040.88 2077.19 2135.68 2211.36 2299.98 2395.54 Endogen HMSP 565.10 551.71 542.49 537.63 540.73 541.21 544.04 Endogen CSEU 3427.48 3521.41 3624.81 3732.26 3832.50 3941.41 4051.57 Endogen CKEU 1841.97 1835.46 1847.94 1870.09 1886.02 1891.44 1903.09 Endogen CREU 2878.38 2950.93 3018.87 3087.86 3165.12 3247.02 3335.95 Endogen CMEU 2260.59 2328.01 2384.67 2426.63 2464.39 2503.46 2539.34 Endogen MSEU 7459.26 7778.74 8099.93 8423.47 8744.50 9068.16 9393.79 Endogen MKEU 1077.33 1074.37 1091.36 1116.55 1133.82 1140.51 1155.05 Endogen MREU 2433.52 2503.22 2567.37 2632.77 2705.68 2782.95 2866.24 Endogen MMEU 2476.83 2486.97 2518.20 2553.76 2590.55 2630.44 2671.07 Endogen HMSEU 557.39 549.27 543.66 541.25 545.87 544.78 547.19 Endogen HMKEU 647.98 669.11 667.36 660.06 663.83 677.66 679.59 Endogen HMREU 768.99 771.56 775.53 779.18 783.73 788.58 794.68 Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen MKC 3206.13 3308.55 3410.65 3515.25 3618.32 3720.60 3822.25 Endogen MRC 392.04 401.61 411.51 420.59 430.15 439.93 449.76 Endogen HMSC 480.56 481.60 483.42 484.55 482.20 483.56 482.90 Endogen HMKC 626.46 632.51 638.08 635.49 641.94 647.20 652.29 Endogen HMRC 655.38 659.84 664.88 670.27 675.61 680.61 685.31 Endogen CSID 6308.45 6477.08 6646.68 6817.90 6993.46 7167.21 7342.84 Endogen CKID 3480.41 3572.70 3663.85 3762.44 3855.90 3947.89 4038.53 Endogen MSID 6083.84 6237.90 6398.89 6562.12 6727.22 6897.52 7063.36 Endogen MKID 1678.87 1697.48 1802.83 1835.71 1894.86 1944.11 2002.92 Endogen HMSID 506.81 509.80 513.17 516.08 516.18 518.55 519.85 Endogen HMKID 670.66 677.13 682.76 675.96 682.79 687.79 692.50 Endogen CSP 2561.32 2623.23 2685.03 2746.93 2809.79 2872.48 2935.39 Endogen MSP 2487.84 2570.39 2640.47 2698.25 2746.21 2788.56 2830.61 Endogen HMSP 548.66 552.39 556.46 560.08 560.74 563.41 565.12 Endogen CSEU 4161.54 4273.69 4383.79 4490.40 4597.85 4698.36 4797.12 Endogen CKEU 1919.05 1933.83 1949.40 1972.63 1990.91 2008.17 2025.03 Endogen CREU 3430.96 3528.67 3627.58 3725.39 3818.64 3909.61 3997.00 Endogen CMEU 2578.78 2622.75 2666.67 2705.85 2748.88 2790.35 2831.26 Endogen MSEU 9720.79 10050.25 10380.86 10711.23 11042.46 11370.88 11696.58 Endogen MKEU 1172.63 1187.65 1203.31 1227.14 1244.32 1261.18 1277.80 Endogen MREU 2954.28 3044.07 3134.48 3223.47 3308.00 3390.62 3469.98 Endogen MMEU 2715.74 2767.11 2823.30 2879.50 2938.94 2999.58 3060.83 Endogen HMSEU 550.68 552.55 555.12 557.08 556.00 558.17 558.56 Endogen HMKEU 681.22 688.37 694.99 692.33 699.97 706.27 712.37 Endogen HMREU 802.50 811.57 821.41 831.73 841.97 851.76 861.17 Lampiran 13. Lanjutan Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Endogen HMMEU 778.25 774.17 773.82 774.58 775.67 777.01 778.16 Endogen CKIR 728.44 734.05 741.87 753.30 763.26 768.84 775.93 Endogen CMIR 209.25 217.38 224.39 230.50 236.33 242.19 247.75 Endogen MKIR 586.59 589.12 594.53 604.26 611.22 611.76 614.26 Endogen MMIR 217.21 226.13 233.76 240.36 246.63 252.94 258.91 Endogen HMKIR 625.95 659.36 656.42 644.27 648.76 668.49 669.62 Endogen HMMIR 603.41 589.86 578.17 567.87 558.35 549.30 540.34 Endogen CMMS 226.99 220.39 219.29 222.05 226.61 231.07 234.30 Endogen MMMS 191.86 188.99 193.13 200.22 207.34 212.26 214.46 Endogen HMMMS 583.64 572.81 560.15 547.53 539.14 531.70 522.29 Endogen HSW 536.09 525.86 518.99 516.41 523.25 522.45 526.32 Endogen HKW 642.58 679.73 676.24 662.94 669.26 693.45 696.51 Endogen HRW 772.15 776.59 782.78 788.58 795.50 802.80 811.67 Endogen HMW 826.06 818.54 818.69 821.11 824.22 827.84 831.06 Endogen XSW 35114.78 35525.77 36205.39 36909.20 37362.04 38500.89 39319.21 Endogen MSW 33205.11 33579.17 34110.79 34779.98 35537.57 36399.74 37326.21 Endogen XKW 12278.78 12695.01 12945.63 13620.12 13697.19 14072.09 14382.42 Endogen MKW 11018.08 12010.84 11757.47 11979.98 12280.32 12939.98 12976.47 Endogen XRW 4326.58 4358.38 4396.80 4491.73 4597.56 4717.53 4843.22 Endogen MRW 4121.66 4185.15 4252.22 4307.24 4385.43 4462.27 4561.94 Endogen XMW 4870.74 5005.12 5132.34 5254.91 5374.59 5492.48 5609.25 Endogen MMW 5006.39 5063.20 5146.83 5236.71 5327.51 5419.26 5508.66 Variabel Hasil Peramalan 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Endogen HMMEU 779.55 781.64 784.30 787.03 790.28 793.77 797.39 Endogen CKIR 784.12 791.10 797.60 807.12 814.95 822.24 829.30 Endogen CMIR 253.14 258.53 263.89 269.02 274.25 279.48 284.70 Endogen MKIR 617.89 619.52 620.29 625.04 627.12 628.37 629.20 Endogen MMIR 264.67 270.44 276.17 281.64 287.22 292.80 298.36 Endogen HMKIR 670.14 679.10 687.18 680.88 690.46 697.95 705.12 Endogen HMMIR 531.55 523.27 515.57 508.18 501.24 494.67 488.34 Endogen CMMS 235.96 236.34 236.08 235.80 235.92 236.55 237.62 Endogen MMMS 214.36 213.06 211.66 210.91 211.08 212.04 213.43 Endogen HMMMS 513.03 505.36 498.11 490.55 483.63 477.31 471.05 Endogen HSW 531.65 534.81 538.90 542.18 541.38 544.93 546.11 Endogen HKW 699.02 711.35 722.74 717.66 730.86 741.67 752.13 Endogen HRW 822.68 835.27 848.82 862.97 877.02 890.51 903.53 Endogen HMW 834.78 839.93 846.28 852.75 860.28 868.31 876.61 Endogen XSW 40213.48 41278.72 42269.09 43325.65 44576.78 45524.44 46687.15 Endogen MSW 38289.09 39285.22 40296.58 41315.17 42351.80 43382.00 44417.94 Endogen XKW 14857.28 15099.32 15457.00 15788.64 16187.70 16494.56 16846.64 Endogen MKW 13311.94 13688.72 14031.16 14044.75 14614.78 14903.82 15238.94 Endogen XRW 4988.08 5140.51 5273.46 5394.48 5504.93 5608.75 5701.70 Endogen MRW 4685.63 4817.12 4947.33 5076.77 5197.76 5309.56 5416.82 Endogen XMW 5725.27 5840.79 5955.96 6070.94 6185.79 6300.54 6415.23 Endogen MMW 5599.61 5696.08 5797.23 5898.77 6004.58 6112.38 6221.21 Lampiran 14. Program Simulasi Penghapusan Pajak Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia terhadap Hasil Peramalan Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012-2025 Skenario 7 OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; DATA TESIS1; SET ANALISIS; PESI =

0.0 PESI;

SKENARIO 1: HCOW = 1.01 HCOW; SKENARIO 2: PRODSM = 1.10 PRODSM; SKENARIO 3: PRODRUSA = 1.10 PRODRUSA; PRODRCD = 1.10 PRODRCD; SKENARIO 4: PRODKUSA = 1.10 PRODKUSA; PRODKB = 1.10 PRODKB; PRODKA = 1.10 PRODKA; SKENARIO 5: PRODMA = 1.10 PRODMA; SKENARIO 6: PRODSM = 1.02 PRODSM; PRODRUSA = 1.02 PRODRUSA; PRODRCD = 1.02 PRODRCD; PRODKUSA = 1.02 PRODKUSA; PRODKB = 1.02 PRODKB; PRODKA = 1.02 PRODKA; PRODMA = 1.02 PRODMA; SKENARIO 8: ERI = 1.08 ERI; RUN ; PROC SIMNLIN DATA=TESIS1 DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS HSW HKW HRW HMW LASMIN LASMIS LASMIR YIESIN YIESIS YIESIR HDSI HESI CSI XSI HESM XSM HEKB HDKB CKB XKB HEKA HDKA HEMA HDMA CKA CMA XKA XMA HEKUSA HERUSA HMRUSA HDRUSA HDKUSA MRUSA CKUSA CRUSA XKUSA XRUSA HERCD HDRCD CRCD XRCD HMSP CSP MSP HMMMS CMMS MMMS HMKEU HMSEU HMREU HMMEU CKEU CSEU CREU CMEU MKEU MSEU MREU MMEU HMSC HMKC HMRC CSC CKC CRC MSC MKC MRC HMSID HMKID CSID CKID MSID MKID HMKIR HMMIR CKIR CMIR MKIR MMIR SDSI SXSI PRODSI XSW MSW XKW MKW XRW MRW XMW MMW SDKB SDKA SDMA SDKUSA SDRUSA; EXOGENOUS TREN PRODCOW HCOW XSRW MSRW XKRW MKRW XRRW MRRW XMRW MMRW TSBI USPI HCPI ERI PESI STOKSI LPOPI LASIN LASIS LASIR L3LASIN L3LASIS L3LASIR ERM PESM PRODSM STOKSM CSM ERB PEKB PRODKB STOKKB POPB PEMA ERA PRODKA PRODMA STOKKA STOKMA IPA POPA SEKUSA SERUSA TMRUSA PRODKUSA PRODRUSA STOKKUSA STOKRUSA POPUSA IPUSA PRODRCD ERCD POPCD SERCD TMSP ERP IPP POPP TMMMS ERMS PRODMMS LPOPMS TMKEU TMMEU TMSEU TMREU EREU IPEU POPEU TMKC TMSC TMRC ERC IPC POPC TMSID TMKID PRODKID ERID IPID POPID TMMIR ERIR PRODKIR PRODMIR POPIR; PARM B0 241.8316 B1 - 0.02120 B2 0.023313 B3 0.474437 C0 182.7619 C1 - 0.03417 C2 0.051413 C3 0.487471 D0 143.6909 D1 - 0.01026 D2 0.062441 D3 0.539133 E0 380.0096 E1 - 0.15911 E2 0.243896 I0 0.089329 I1 - 1.12078 I2 0.858698 J0 243.9014 J1 0.116390 J2 - 0.21126 J3 - 0.43739 J4 0.804695 K0 72.46956 K1 0.013851 K2 - 0.24278 K3 0.778981 L0 0.000224 L1 - 0.00153 L2 - 0.00406 L3 0.992763 Lampiran 14. Lanjutan M0 0.001040 M1 - 0.00015 M2 0.88328 N0 0.000087 N1 0.000197 N2 - 0.00817 N3 - 0.00149 N4 0.584751 O0 4.662357 O1 0.157079 O2 - 464.243 O3 0.300709 P0 0.745129 P1 - 0.00176 P2 - 11.0698 P3 0.167411 Q0 1.405829 Q1 - 453.433 Q2 - 57.9413 Q3 0.008254 Q4 0.896068 R0 - 3450.09 R1 - 0.05438 R2 961.7034 R3 23.42292 R4 0.695843 S0 15.75933 S1 0.855158 S2 - 14.0676 S3 - 0.00528 S4 0.244956 T0 0.069857 T1 - 6.67733 T2 0.812459 T3 0.388918 T4 0.465425 U0 351.7565 U1 0.110846 U2 - 6.46154 U3 - 3.66984 U4 0.454223 V0 0.507638 V1 - 0.14320 V2 0.169727 W0 - 723.471 W1 0.229701 W2 - 0.41627 W3 100.4155 W4 0.440950 W5 0.116749 X0 - 903.105 X1 - 0.19697 X2 - 2.17634 X3 11.50532 X4 0.683214 Y0 39.59796 Y1 0.870944 Y2 - 4.28929 Y3 - 0.01236 Y4 0.066310 Z0 127.8220 Z1 0.104366 Z2 - 2.90880 Z3 0.521371 AA0 - 2039.83 AA1 - 41.4378 AA2 131.3494 AA3 66.68074 AB0 0.163538 AB1 - 0.41667 AB2 10.76324 AB3 0.909194 AC0 107.3276 AC1 0.550047 AC2 0.183935 AD0 0.162831 AD1 - 0.32333 AD2 0.399137 AD3 0.621045 AE0 - 225.772 AE1 5.172079 AE2 6.433590 AF0 - 27.2357 AF1 0.065140 AF2 - 0.22921 AF3 - 2.04815 AF4 0.794059 AF5 0.011916 AG0 343.4989 AG1 0.457125 AG2 2.036429 AH0 0.855283 AH1 8.448790 AH2 - 0.42908 AI0 0.680184 AI1 7.412285 CG0 0.519024 CG1 - 0.12344 CG2 0.206917 CH0 7.249052 CH1 1.065817 CH2 0.013472 CH3 - 0.02424 CH4 0.066539 AJ0 441.8021 AJ1 65.10564 AJ2 - 0.27971 AJ3 0.077960 AK0 0.066989 AK1 - 0.05650 AK2 0.431599 AL0 56.36600 AL1 - 0.05946 AL2 - 0.52080 AL3 0.644072 AL4 0.230138 AM0 - 70.3891 AM1 0.709185 AM2 25.79298 AN0 - 3516.09 AN1 - 0.79295 AN2 - 6.57461 AN3 0.299084 AN4 16.70166 AO0 0.636471 AO1 0.079828 AO2 - 0.15465 AO3 0.542992 CE0 0.990814 CE1 - 0.00435 CE2 0.015832 CE3 0.063175 AP0 5.123725 AP1 - 0.32645 AP2 0.583089 AP3 0.414745 AQ0 - 169.133 AQ1 - 0.00666 AQ2 4.062721 AQ3 1.131358 AQ4 0.797579 AR0 0.689993 AR1 0.334226 AS0 - 799.987 AS1 - 0.30548 AS2 12.74509 AS3 0.433641 AT0 2310.386 AT1 - 0.13369 AT2 - 9.75469 AT3 - 39.9513 AT4 784.9596 AT5 0.463356 AU0 0.359474 AU1 7.690904 AU2 0.345766 AV0 353.3033 AV1 - 2.37764 AV2 - 27.9014 AV3 82.52237 AW0 216.4328 AW1 - 0.00951 AW2 - 14.3876 AW3 0.112771 AW4 0.369714 AX0 175.0135 AX1 0.563480 AX2 4.251363 AY0 133.9674 AY1 0.746373 AY2 1.444464 AZ0 0.798185 AZ1 7.037101 BA0 336.7428 BA1 0.486808 BA2 2.017002 BB0 - 0.77048 BB1 0.615640 BB2 0.503863 BB3 1400.688 BB4 0.026403 BB5 0.374336 BC0 - 825.988 BC1 - 732.909 BC2 0.478277 BC3 0.118464 BD0 - 10473.3 BD1 - 1.76015 BD2 1.236793 BD3 590.7302 BD4 0.040975 BD5 24.40434 BD6 0.604560 BE0 - 5268.47 BE1 - 0.59224 BE2 0.768582 BE3 15.21893 BE4 10.89263 BE5 0.908926 BF0 - 0.30298 BF1 - 91.3233 BF2 0.702171 BG0 - 0.23946 BG1 0.399460 BG2 0.871883 Lampiran 14. Lanjutan BH0 154.2939 BH1 - 0.72911 BH2 0.986633 BI0 30.12616 BI1 - 0.18123 BI2 - 0.30879 BI3 0.761962 BI4 0.650198 BJ0 - 13375.0 BJ1 - 2.99543 BJ2 0.175097 BJ3 1.794438 BJ4 145.2790 BJ5 1.223164 BJ6 3.447816 BK0 - 1707.87 BK1 - 0.16965 BK2 0.014549 BK3 1.844396 BK4 0.796551 BL0 0.854980 BL1 2.071625 BM0 264.6960 BM1 0.494498 BM2 0.215192 BN0 127.0903 BN1 0.605879 BN2 3.956275 BO0 - 6128.81 BO1 - 0.00352 BO2 0.257495 BO3 0.114741 BO4 6.436799 BO5 0.362579 BP0 - 0.29663 BP1 0.346245 BP2 0.593307 BQ0 41.04146 BQ1 - 0.02139 BQ2 - 0.44848 BQ3 0.457126 BQ4 0.288498 BR0 274.0120 BR1 - 0.12175 BR2 1.029408 BX0 64.95581 BX1 - 0.07863 BX2 - 0.96035 BX3 0.986032 BY0 0.870527 BY1 2.671920 BZ0 0.295125 BZ1 5.422256 BZ2 0.465672 CA0 - 0.22872 CA1 0.132785 CA2 4.461250 CA3 0.623417 CB0 - 839.868 CB1 - 12.2172 CB2 13.86352 CB3 2.248393 CB4 0.497034 CC0 - 0.06288 CC1 - 1.07570 CC2 1.106310 CC3 0.086497 CD0 - 0.00270 CD1 - 0.92889 CD2 1.144923 ; HSW = B0+B1XSW+B2MSW+B3LHSW; HKW = C0+C1XKW+C2MKW+C3LHKW; HRW = D0+D1XRW+D2MRW+D3LHRW; HMW = E0+E1XMW+E2MMW; LASMIN = I0LHESI+I1RHCPI+I2L3LASIN; LASMIS = J0+J1LHESI+J2RHCPI+J3USPI+J4L3LASIS; LASMIR = K0+K1LHDSI+K2USPI+K3LLASIR; YIESIN = L0HESI+L1RHCPI+L2DLASMIN+L3LYIESIN; YIESIS = M0HESI+M1DLASMIS+M2LYIESIS; YIESIR = N0HDSI+N1LHDSI+N2RHCPI+N3DLASMIR+N4LYIESIR; HDSI = O0HESI+O1ERI+O2RTSDSI+O3LHDSI; HESI = P0HSW+P1ERI+P2RXSI+P3LHESI; XSI = Q0HESI+Q1RHDSI+Q2PESI+Q3ERI+Q4SXSI; CSI = R0+R1HDSI+R2RHCOW+R3POPI+R4LCSI; HESM = S0+S1HSW+S2ERM+S3XSM+S4LHESM; XSM = T0HESM+T1PESM+T2STOKSM+T3PRODSM+T4LXSM; HEKB = U0+U1HKW+U2ERB+U3PEKB+U4LHEKB; HDKB = V0HEKB+V1SDKB+V2CKB; XKB = W0+W1HEKB+W2HDKB+W3ERB+W4PRODKB+W5LXKB; CKB = X0+X1HDKB+X2RRHDKBRHCOW+X3POPB+X4LCKB; HEKA = Y0+Y1HKW+Y2ERA+Y3XKA+Y4LHEKA; HDKA = Z0+Z1HEKA+Z2RSDCKA+Z3LHDKA; CKA = AA0+AA1RHDKA+AA2RHCOW+AA3POPA; XKA = AB0HEKA+AB1HDKA+AB2ERA+AB3PRODKA; HEMA = AC0+AC1HMW+AC2LHEMA; HDMA = AD0HEMA+AD1SDMA+AD2CMA+AD3LHDMA; CMA = AE0RHDMKA+AE1HCOW+AE2POPA; XMA = AF0+AF1HEMA+AF2HDMA+AF3PEMA+AF4PRODMA+AF5LXMA; HEKUSA = AG0+AG1HKW+AG2SEKUSA; HERUSA = AH0HRW+AH1SERUSA+AH2XRUSA; HMRUSA = AI0HRW+AI1TMRUSA; HDKUSA = CG0HEKUSA+CG1SDKUSA+CG2CKUSA; HDRUSA = CH0+CH1HERUSA+CH2HMRUSA+CH3SDRUSA+CH4CRUSA; XKUSA = AJ0+AJ1RHEKUSA+AJ2HDKUSA+AJ3PRODKUSA; XRUSA = AK0HERUSA+AK1HDRUSA+AK2PRODRUSA; Lampiran 14. Lanjutan MRUSA = AL0+AL1HMRUSA+AL2STOKRUSA+AL3CRUSA+AL4LMRUSA; CKUSA = AM0RHDKUSAHCOW+AM1HDRUSA+AM2POPUSA; CRUSA = AN0+AN1HDRUSA+AN2RHDRUSAHCOW+AN3HDKUSA+AN4POPUSA; HERCD = AO0HRW+AO1SERCD+AO2XRCD+AO3LHERCD; HDRCD = CE0HERCD+CE1PRODRCD+CE2CRCD+CE3LHDRCD; XRCD = AP0RHERCD+AP1HDRCD+AP2PRODRCD+AP3LXRCD; CRCD = AQ0+AQ1HDRCD+AQ2HCOW+AQ3POPCD+AQ4LCRCD; HMSP = AR0HSW+AR1LHMSP; CSP = AS0+AS1HMSP+AS2POPP+AS3LCSP; MSP = AT0+AT1HMSP+AT2ERP+AT3TMSP+AT4RCSP+AT5LMSP; HMMMS = AU0HMW+AU1TMMMS+AU2LHMMMS; MMMS = AV0+AV1RHMMMS+AV2ERMS+AV3RCMMS; CMMS = AW0+AW1HMMMS+AW2ERMS+AW3POPMS+AW4LCMMS; HMKEU = AX0+AX1HKW+AX2TMKEU; HMSEU = AY0+AY1HSW+AY2TMSEU; HMREU = AZ0HRW+AZ1TMREU; HMMEU = BA0+BA1HMW+BA2TMMEU; CKEU = BB0HMKEU+BB1HMREU+BB2HMMEU+BB3RHCOW+BB4IPEU +BB5LCKEU; CMEU = BC0+BC1RHMMREU+BC2HMKEU+BC3IPEU; CSEU = BD0+BD1HMSEU+BD2HMMEU+BD3RHCOW+BD4IPEU+BD5POPEU +BD6LCSEU; CREU = BE0+BE1HMREU+BE2HMSEU+BE3HCOW+BE4POPEU+BE5LCREU; MKEU = BF0HMKEU+BF1EREU+BF2CKEU; MSEU = BG0HMSEU+BG1CSEU+BG2LMSEU; MREU = BH0+BH1HMREU+BH2CREU; MMEU = BI0+BI1HMMEU+BI2PRODMEU+BI3CMEU+BI4LMMEU; HMSC = BL0HSW+BL1TMSC; HMKC = BM0+BM1HKW+BM2TMKC; HMRC = BN0+BN1HRW+BN2TMRC; CSC = BJ0+BJ1HMSC+BJ2HMKC+BJ3HMRC+BJ4HCOW+BJ5IPC+BJ6POPC; CKC = BK0+BK1HMKC+BK2IPC+BK3POPC+BK4LCKC; CRC = BO0+BO1HMRC+BO2HMKC+BO3IPC+BO4POPC+BO5LCRC; MKC = BP0HMKC+BP1CKC+BP2LMKC; MRC = BQ0+BQ1HMRC+BQ2PRODRC+BQ3CRC+BQ4LMRC; MSC = BR0+BR1HMSC+BR2CSC; HMSID = BT0+BT1HSW+BT2RCSID+BT3LHMSID; HMKID = BU0HKW+BU1TMKID; CSID = BV0+BV1HMSID+BV2IPID+BV3POPID; CKID = BW0+BW1HMKID+BW2HMSID+BW3HCOW+BW4POPID+BW5LCKID; MSID = BS0+BS1RRHMSIDRCSID+BS2TMSID+BS3ERID; MKID = BX0+BX1HMKID+BX2PRODKID+BX3CKID; HMKIR = BY0HKW+BY1TMKIR; HMMIR = BZ0HMW+BZ1TMMIR+BZ2LHMMIR; CKIR = CA0HMKIR+CA1HMMIR+CA2POPIR+CA3LCKIR; CMIR = CB0+CB1RHMMKIR+CB2HCOW+CB3POPIR+CB4LCMIR; MKIR = CC0HMKIR+CC1PRODKIR+CC2CKIR+CC3LMKIR; MMIR = CD0HMMIR+CD1PRODMIR+CD2CMIR; PRODSI = LASMINYIESIN+LASMISYIESIS+LASMIRYIESIR; XSW = XSI+XSM+XSRW; XKW = XKA+XKB+XKUSA+XKRW; XRW = XRCD+XRUSA+XRRW; XMW = XMA+XMRW; MSW = MSC+MSEU+MSID+MSP+MSRW; MKW = MKC+MKID+MKEU+MKIR+MKRW; Lampiran 14. Lanjutan MRW = MRUSA+MREU+MRC+MRRW; MMW = MMEU+MMMS+MMIR+MMRW; SDSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-XSI; SXSI = STOKSI+PRODSI-CSI; SDKB = STOKKB+PRODKB-XKB; SDKA = STOKKA+PRODKA-XKA; SDMA = STOKMA+PRODMA-XMA; SDKUSA = STOKKUSA+PRODKUSA-XKUSA; SDRUSA = STOKRUSA+PRODRUSA+MRUSA-XRUSA; LLASMIN = LAGLASMIN; LLASMIS = LAGLASMIS; LLASMIR = LAGLASMIR; LYIESIN = LAGYIESIN; LYIESIS = LAGYIESIS; LYIESIR = LAGYIESIR; LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI = LAGXSI; LHCOW = LAGHCOW LCSI = LAGCSI; LXSI=LAGXSI; LXSM = LAGXSM; LMSC = LAGMSC; LMSEU = LAGMSEU; LMSID = LAGMSID LMSP = LAGMSP; LCSC = LAGCSC; LCSEU = LAGCSEU; LCSID = LAGCSID; LCSP = LAGCSP; LHSW = LAGHSW; LHESI = LAGHESI; LHESM = LAGHESM; LHDSI = LAGHDSI; LHMSC = LAGHMSC; LHMSEU = LAGHMSEU; LHMSID = LAGHMSID; LHMSP = LAGHMSP; LXKA = LAGXKA; LXKB = LAGXKB; LXKUSA = LAGXKUSA; LMKC = LAGMKC; LMKID = LAGMKID; LMKEU = LAGMKEU; LMKIR = LAGMKIR; LCKA = LAGCKA; LCKB = LAGCKB; LCKUSA= LAGCKUSA; LCKC = LAGCKC; LCKID = LAGCKID; LCKEU = LAGCKEU; LCKIR = LAGCKIR; LHKW = LAGHKW; LHEKA = LAGHEKA; LHEKB = LAGHEKB; LHEKUSA = LAGHEKUSA; LHMKC = LAGHMKC; LHMKID = LAGHMKID; LHMKEU = LAGHMKEU; LHMKIR = LAGHMKIR; LXRCD = LAGXRCD; LXRUSA = LAGXRUSA; LMRUSA = LAGMRUSA; LMREU = LAGMREU; LMRC = LAGMRC; LCRCD = LAGCRCD; LCRUSA = LAGCRUSA; LCREU = LAGCREU; LCRC = LAGCRC; LHRW = LAGHRW; LHERCD = LAGHERCD; LHERUSA = LAGHERUSA; LHMRUSA= LAGHMRUSA; LHDRUSA = LAGHDRUSA; LHDKUSA= LAGHDKUSA; LHMREU = LAGHMREU; LHMRC = LAGHMRC; LXMA = LAGXMA; LMMEU = LAGMMEU; LMMMS = LAGMMMS; LMMIR = LAGMMIR; LCMA = LAGCMA; LCMEU = LAGCMEU; LCMMS = LAGCMMS; LCMIR = LAGCMIR; LHMW = LAGHMW; LHEMA = LAGHEMA; LHMMEU = LAGHMMEU; LHMMMS = LAGHMMMS; LHMMIR = LAGHMMIR; LHDKB = LAGHDKB; LHDKA = LAGHDKA; LHDMA = LAGHDMA; LHDRCD = LAGHDRCD; RANGE TAHUN 2012 TO 2025 ; RUN ; Lampiran 15. Hasil Simulasi Penghapusan Pajak Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia terhadap Hasil Peramalan Model Keterkaitan Harga Minyak Nabati dan Minyak Bumi di Pasar Dunia, Tahun 2012- 2025 Skenario 7 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 184 Endogenous 97 Exogenous 87 Parameters 326 Range Variable Tahun Equations 99 Number of Statements 180 Program Lag Length 1 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= TESIS1 Solution Summary Variables Solved 97 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range Tahun First 2012 Last 2025 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 5.43E-16 Maximum Iterations 3 Total Iterations 41 Average Iterations 2.928571 Observations Processed Read 15 Lagged 1 Solved 14 First 33 Last 46 Lampiran 15. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2025 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label HSW 14 14 533.0 9.3488 522.0 11.9084 H_SWT_W HKW 14 14 699.8 31.6069 698.9 31.4770 H_KDL_W HRW 14 14 826.8 43.8698 823.7 42.9676 H_RAPE_W HMW 14 14 839.0 19.0369 838.9 19.0087 H_MTHR_W LASMIN 14 14 702.3 70.4786 718.3 61.6302 L_TM_PBN LASMIS 14 14 3412.0 396.8 3410.9 396.9 L_TM_PBS LASMIR 14 14 2648.0 256.8 2647.2 256.8 L_TM_PR YIESIN 14 14 4.1253 0.0954 4.1076 0.0952 YIED_PBN YIESIS 14 14 3.9507 0.0318 3.8986 0.0486 YIED_PBS YIESIR 14 14 3.1312 0.0477 3.0929 0.0604 YIED_PR HDSI 14 14 4926.5 109.0 4863.0 122.9 HD_S_INA HESI 14 14 452.3 7.8265 442.5 9.8880 HE_S_INA CSI 14 14 7204.8 901.8 7214.7 902.8 C_S_INA XSI 14 14 17401.8 1689.4 17801.0 1615.5 X_S_INA HESM 14 14 437.0 10.0360 424.8 10.3444 HE_S_MAS XSM 14 14 18579.9 1806.6 18578.4 1806.7 X_S_MAS HEKB 14 14 630.3 9.1369 630.1 9.0827 HE_K_BRL HDKB 14 14 409.2 12.2183 409.0 12.1980 HD_K_BRL CKB 14 14 4393.7 160.2 4393.3 160.3 C_K_BRL XKB 14 14 3228.9 340.9 3228.9 340.9 X_K_BRL HEKA 14 14 584.8 18.4269 583.9 18.3144 HE_K_ARG HDKA 14 14 385.7 2.8940 385.5 2.9193 HD_K_ARG HEMA 14 14 696.8 12.1374 696.7 12.1186 HE_M_ARG HDMA 14 14 256.3 8.6618 256.3 8.6754 HD_M_ARG CKA 14 14 922.3 120.1 922.3 120.1 C_K_ARG CMA 14 14 429.1 16.2352 429.1 16.2350 C_M_ARG XKA 14 14 7520.5 873.7 7520.4 873.7 X_K_ARG XMA 14 14 1599.3 109.3 1599.3 109.3 X_M_ARG HEKUSA 14 14 729.9 15.1236 729.5 15.0133 HE_K_USA HERUSA 14 14 802.7 27.9944 800.0 27.2501 HE_R_USA HMRUSA 14 14 691.8 14.0695 689.7 13.8814 HM_R_USA HDRUSA 14 14 929.1 36.3728 926.3 35.5648 HD_R_USA HDKUSA 14 14 722.9 10.5677 722.3 10.6618 HD_K_USA MRUSA 14 14 1135.7 130.9 1137.5 131.5 M_R_USA CKUSA 14 14 8372.9 346.8 8371.0 346.2 C_K_USA CRUSA 14 14 1431.7 165.4 1433.7 166.1 C_R_USA XKUSA 14 14 1104.6 56.8888 1104.7 56.9334 X_K_USA XRUSA 14 14 258.7 31.1421 258.7 31.1353 X_R_USA HERCD 14 14 595.7 16.6828 591.0 18.4309 HE_R_CD HDRCD 14 14 628.8 18.3816 623.9 20.2642 HD_R_CD CRCD 14 14 478.5 8.2914 478.6 8.3637 C_R_CD XRCD 14 14 1647.2 226.2 1649.7 227.6 X_R_CD HMSP 14 14 553.1 9.4199 542.0 11.7633 HM_S_PKT CSP 14 14 2526.7 264.5 2532.5 264.1 C_S_PKT MSP 14 14 2424.7 293.6 2427.3 293.4 M_S_PKT HMMMS 14 14 521.2 36.0002 521.1 36.0254 HM_M_MS CMMS 14 14 231.1 6.6613 231.1 6.6619 C_M_MS MMMS 14 14 206.8 9.1402 206.8 9.1401 M_M_MS HMKEU 14 14 681.6 18.6329 681.0 18.5591 HM_K_EU HMSEU 14 14 552.0 5.6482 543.7 7.3264 HM_S_EU HMREU 14 14 806.3 30.9976 803.8 30.2921 HM_R_EU HMMEU 14 14 781.8 7.6322 781.8 7.6200 HM_M_EU Lampiran 15. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2025 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label CKEU 14 14 1919.8 62.5593 1918.1 61.8169 C_K_EU CSEU 14 14 4106.6 449.5 4140.0 447.4 C_S_EU CREU 14 14 3411.6 367.9 3382.4 361.9 C_R_EU CMEU 14 14 2560.9 176.3 2560.6 176.2 C_M_EU MKEU 14 14 1168.9 67.5693 1167.8 67.0586 M_K_EU MSEU 14 14 9559.6 1365.3 9632.2 1391.8 M_S_EU MREU 14 14 2932.4 340.6 2905.4 335.2 M_R_EU MMEU 14 14 2722.4 194.0 2721.9 193.9 M_M_EU HMSC 14 14 482.5 5.4258 473.1 5.9934 HM_S_CN HMKC 14 14 626.6 15.7753 626.1 15.7081 HM_K_CN HMRC 14 14 659.2 13.9073 657.3 13.4336 HM_R_CN CSC 14 14 6338.3 514.5 6363.0 506.6 C_S_CN CKC 14 14 4414.8 521.8 4415.1 521.9 C_K_CN CRC 14 14 6477.1 622.9 6477.0 622.8 C_R_CN MSC 14 14 6740.0 529.6 6766.5 521.3 M_S_CN MKC 14 14 3167.9 411.5 3168.4 411.8 M_K_CN MRC 14 14 392.7 33.2023 392.6 33.1915 M_R_CN HMSID 14 14 509.5 7.8255 500.2 9.8330 HM_S_ID HMKID 14 14 669.5 16.3871 668.8 16.2627 HM_K_ID CSID 14 14 6234.8 702.4 6245.7 700.1 C_S_ID CKID 14 14 3434.0 391.1 3423.8 390.8 C_K_ID MSID 14 14 6068.5 593.4 6068.5 593.4 M_S_ID MKID 14 14 1705.0 171.9 1695.0 171.7 M_K_ID HMKIR 14 14 670.3 21.9612 669.5 21.8398 HM_K_IR HMMIR 14 14 539.3 36.5238 539.2 36.5502 HM_M_IR CKIR 14 14 779.4 32.7891 779.8 32.9312 C_K_IR CMIR 14 14 249.3 23.7061 249.3 23.7060 C_M_IR MKIR 14 14 612.7 14.2821 613.3 14.4937 M_K_IR MMIR 14 14 260.5 25.4619 260.5 25.4619 M_M_IR SDSI 14 14 9115.4 1113.7 8478.4 1074.5 SD_S_INA SXSI 14 14 19312.4 1901.2 19064.7 1790.1 SX_S_INA PRODSI 14 14 24656.1 2566.0 24418.3 2449.5 PRDS_INA SDKB 14 14 4584.4 297.0 4584.4 297.0 SD_K_BRL SDKA 14 14 1494.2 169.2 1494.3 169.2 SD_K_ARG SDMA 14 14 585.9 27.3463 585.9 27.3428 SD_M_ARG SDKUSA 14 14 11247.8 713.4 11247.6 713.4 SD_K_USA SDRUSA 14 14 1580.7 183.2 1582.5 183.9 SD_R_USA XSW 14 14 40166.1 3857.8 40563.8 3776.3 X_SWT_W MSW 14 14 38152.5 3762.5 38254.4 3778.8 M_SWT_W XKW 14 14 14601.6 1453.8 14601.7 1453.8 X_KDL_W MKW 14 14 13200.7 1283.3 13190.7 1283.0 M_KDL_W XRW 14 14 4952.8 487.5 4955.3 488.9 X_RAPE_W MRW 14 14 4697.3 436.1 4672.0 431.7 M_RAPE_W XMW 14 14 5659.6 492.8 5659.6 492.8 X_MTHR_W MMW 14 14 5574.2 395.5 5573.8 395.3 M_MTHR_W ABSTRACT ✾✿❀ ✾ ❁ ❂❃❁ ❄❅ ✾ ❆ ✾❄❇ ❈❉❊❋ ●❍ ■ ✾ ❊ ● ❏ ❑▲ ❉ ▲ ▼◆ ❖■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗❏ ■ ❘ ❉❏ ▲ ●❊ ❙ ❚ ❯❱❙ ■ ❘ ❉❏ ❲❯ ❉ ❳■▲ ❉ ❊ ❖■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗❏ ■ ❘ ❉❏ ▲ ❆ ▼ ❯ ❏❙ ❨ ❯● ❙ ■ ❩ ❀❘ ❄ ✾ ❁ ✿ ❇ ❬ ❅❄ ✾❭✾ ●▲ ❚ ❪ ● ❉ ❯❫ ●❊ ●❊ ❙ ❄❃❄❃❄ ❭ ❂❃ ❬ ❄ ✾ ❴❅ ●▲ ✿■❫ ◗ ■❯ ▼◆ P ❪ ■ ✾ ❙ ❵❉ ▲ ▼❯ ❑ ❚ ▼❫ ❫ ❉PP ■■❛ ❇ ❨ ❪■ ❉ ❊ ❳❯■●▲ ❉ ❊❍ ●▲ ❊ ▼❊ ❜ ◆ ▼▼❙ ❱ ▲ ■▲ ▼ ◆ ❵ ■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗❏ ■ ▼❉❏ ▲ ■▲ ❝ ■❳ ❉ ● ❏❏ ❑ ●▲ ◗❉ ▼❙❉ ■▲ ■ ❏ ●❊ ❙ P ❪■ ◗ ●▲ ❉ ▲ ▼ ◆ P ❪■ ▼ ❏ ■▼ ❳❪■❫❉ ❳● ❏ ❉ ❊❙❱ ▲ P ❯❑❞ ❫ ● ❋❉ ❊❍ P ❪■ ◆ ▼ ❯❫● P❉ ▼ ❊ ▼ ◆ ❵ ■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗ ❏ ■ ▼❉❏ ❝ ❯ ❉ ❳■▲ ❉ ❊ ❡▼ ❯ ❏❙ P ❯● ❙ ■ ❪ ●▲ ◗ ■■❊ ❏❉ ❊❋ ■ ❙ P ▼ ❡▼ ❯ ❏❙ ❝ ❯ ❉ ❳ ■▲ ▼ ◆ ❳❯ ❱ ❙ ■ ▼ ❉❏ ❉❊ ● ❙ ❙❉P❉ ▼ ❊ P ▼ ❏ ❉ ❊ ❋ ● ❍ ■▲ ❡ ❉P ❪ P ❪ ■ ❡▼ ❯ ❏❙ ❝ ❯❉ ❳■ ▼◆ ❵ ■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗ ❏ ■ ▼ ❉❏ ▲ ❳▼ ❫ ❝ ■ P❉P▼ ❯ ❇ ❨ ❪ ■ ▼◗ ❢■❳ P❉❵ ■▲ ▼◆ P ❪❉ ▲ ▲ P❱❙ ❑ ❡■❯ ■ ❩ ❣ ❛ P ▼ ●❊ ● ❏ ❑ ❤ ■ P ❪■ ❏❉ ❊ ❋ ● ❍ ■ ▼◆ P ❪ ■ ❡▼ ❯ ❏❙ ❝ ❯ ❉ ❳■ ▼ ◆ ❳❯ ❱ ❙ ■ ▼ ❉❏ ●❊❙ ❵ ■❍ ■ P ● ◗ ❏ ■ ▼❉❏ ▲ ❉ ❫ ❱ ❏P ●❊■▼❱ ▲ ❏ ❑ ❞ ❩✐ ❛ P▼ ❫ ● ❋ ■ P ❪■ ◆ ▼ ❯■❳●▲ P❉ ❊ ❍ ▼◆ P ❪ ■ ❯■● ❏ ❝ ❯ ❉ ❳ ■ ▼◆ ❳❯❱❙ ■ ▼❉❏ ●❊❙ ❵ ■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗ ❏ ■ ▼❉❏ ❉ ❊ ❡▼❯ ❏❙ ❫●❯ ❋ ■ P❞ P❪ ■ ❵ ■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗❏ ■ ▼ ❉❏ ❯■● ❏ ❝ ❯ ❉ ❳■ ❉ ❊ ❙ ▼❫ ■▲ P❉ ❳ ❫●❯❋ ■ P ●❊ ❙ P ❪ ■ ❝ ■❯ ◆ ▼ ❯❫ ●❊❳■ ▼◆ ❅ ❊❙ ▼ ❊■▲ ❉ ●❊ ❝ ● ❏ ❫ ▼❉❏ ❉ ❊❙❱ ▲ P❯ ❑ ❞ ❝ ●❯ P❉ ❳ ❱❏ ●❯❏ ❑ P ❪■ ❝ ❯▼❙❱ ❳ P❉ ▼❊❞ ❙ ▼❫ ■▲ P❉ ❳ ▲ ❱ ❝ ❝ ❏ ❑ ❞ ❙ ▼ ❫■▲ P❉ ❳ ❳▼❊ ▲ ❱ ❫ ❝ P❉ ▼ ❊ ●❊ ❙ ■ ❥❝ ▼❯ P ❵ ▼❏ ❱ ❫■▲ ▼ ◆ ❅ ❊ ❙ ▼❊ ■▲ ❉ ●❊ ❝ ● ❏ ❫ ▼❉❏ ◆ ▼❯ P ❪■ ❝ ■❯ ❉ ▼❙ ✐❦ ❣ ✐ ❜ ✐ ❦ ✐❧❞ ❩♠ ❛ P ▼ ■ ❥ ●❫❉ ❊■ P ❪■ ❉ ❫ ❝ ●❳ P ▼◆ P ❪ ■ ❳❪●❊❍ ■▲ ▼ ◆ P ❪■ ■ ❥ P ■❯❊ ● ❏ ◆ ●❳ P ▼❯ ▲ ●❊ ❙ P ❯● ❙ ■ ❝ ▼ ❏❉ ❳ ❑ ◗ ❑ P ❪■ ❵ ■ ❍ ■ P ● ◗ ❏ ■ ▼❉❏ s exporting countries and importing countries on the world trade of vegetable oils, and particularly the production, domestic supply, domestic consumption and exports volumes of Indonesian palm oil and 4 to formulate the policy for development of the Indonesian oil palm industry in the future. The study employs an econometric model and specification was dynamic simultaneous equations and consists of 81 behavioral equations and 16 identities equations. Parameters are estimated using Two Stage Least Squares methods for the period 1980-2008. This study finds that real price projections in the world market of 2012-2025 periods showed that the price fluctuations of crude oil and vegetable oil tend to have same patterns with slightly trend to increases. Although positively correlated, the percentage increase of vegetable oils price as the effect of the increasing of crude oil price is less than the percentage change of crude oil prices, except for soybean oil prices that vista vies with the percentage change of crude oil prices. The effect on percentage change of price of soybean oils is the highest and then followed by sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil. Beside the chemical characteristics, this condition thought to be related to the limited volumes of vegetable oils world s productions and the food sector needs as a main constraints in the use of vegetable oils as crude oil substitutes. As annual crop commodities and the substitutes of seed oils, however, palm oil price has more responsive to export fluctuation then seed oils. Base on this study, in order to support the Indonesian oil palm industry, the Indonesian government has been suggested 1 to develop the domestic market, 2 to ensure the exchange rate stability and the palm oils trade policy and 3 to arrange the grand design of Indonesian oil palm industry for the long run term. Keywords: prices formation, world trade, vegetable oil, crude oil.

I. PENDAHULUAN

1.1 Latar Belakang

Minyak kelapa sawit ket: ekuivalen minyak kasar kelapa sawitcrude palm oil bersama dengan minyak kedelai, minyak rapeseed dan minyak biji bunga matahari merupakan empat minyak utama yang diproduksi dan diperdagangkan di pasar dunia minyak nabati vegetable oils maupun di pasar dunia minyak hayati edible oils and fats. Di pasar dunia minyak hayati, diperdagangkan 13 jenis minyak nabati vegetable oils dan empat jenis minyak hewani oil and fats. Perincian jenis minyak hayati dan penggunaannya dalam kehidupan sehari-hari disajikan pada Lampiran 1. Share keempat jenis minyak nabati di atas terhadap total produksi dunia minyak hayati tahun 2003-2008 sekitar 67, sedangkan share terhadap volume perdagangan dunia sekitar 81 Oil World, 2011. Produksi minyak nabati secara umum ditujukan untuk keperluan pangan, sebagian lainnya digunakan untuk keperluan non pangan ket: khususnya industri oleokimia dan biodiesel dan sisanya digunakan sebagai pakan ternak. Secara kimiawi, minyak nabati memiliki persamaan utama yaitu memiliki trigliserida dengan asam lemak yang terikat pada lengan-lengannya. Mengingat komposisi yang serupa, maka baik untuk keperluan pangan maupun non pangan, antar minyak nabati dapat saling bersubstitusi. Selain itu, di pasar dunia terjadi persaingan antar negara produsen untuk satu jenis minyak yang sama. Sebagai konsekuensi dari persaingan yang ketat maka ditemukan adanya fluktuasi harga minyak nabati Buana, 2004. Di era tahun 1980-an rasio penggunaan minyak nabati untuk pangan, non pangan dan pakan ternak berkisar 80:14:6. Seiring peningkatan penggunaan non pangan dalam 13 tahun terakhir, rasio penggunaan minyak nabati saat ini berkisar 75:20:5. Peningkatan tersebut didorong oleh kenaikan penggunaan biodiesel maupun sebagai subsitusi bahan dasar industri oleokimia yang awalnya berbasis minyak bumi AOCS, 2011. Terkait hal di atas, maka dalam perdagangan dunia minyak nabati selain terjadi persaingan antar jenis minyak nabati, pembentukan harga dunia minyak nabati diduga memiliki keterkaitan dengan harga dunia minyak bumicrude oil. Kaitan tersebut terlihat dari pola pergerakan harga minyak nabati dan harga minyak bumi yang relatif sama, khususnya sejak tahun 2003. Pola pergerakan harga empat minyak nabati utama dan harga minyak bumi di pasar dunia tahun 1980-2008 seperti disajikan pada Gambar 1. Sumber: Oil World, 2011 dan IMF 2011, diolah Gambar 1. Perkembangan Harga Dunia Minyak Bumi, Minyak Kelapa Sawit, Minyak Kedelai, Minyak Rapeseed dan Minyak Biji Bunga Matahari, Tahun 1980-2008

1.2 Rumusan Masalah

Sifat minyak bumi yang non-renewable dan peningkatan populasi dunia telah mendorong pemakaian minyak nabati sebagai salah satu sumber energi 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 M in y ak N ab at i: U S D m et ri c to n c if R o tt er da m M in y ak B u m i: U S d ba rr el f o b U K B re nt Minyak Bumi M. Kelapa Sawit M. Kedelai M. Rapeseed M. Bj. Matahari alternatif maupun sebagai substitusi bahan dasar industri oleokimia yang awalnya berbasis minyak bumi. Meskipun renewable, namun keterbatasan volume produksi dunia dan pemenuhan kebutuhan sektor pangan merupakan kendala utama dalam pemakaian minyak nabati sebagai subsitusi minyak bumi di masa depan. Oleh sebab itu, dalam penelitian ini akan dikaji permasalahan pertama yaitu: bagaimana keterkaitan harga minyak nabati dan minyak bumi dalam perdagangan dunia minyak nabati secara simultan dan bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap perdagangan dunia minyak nabati. Permasalahan penelitian difokuskan kepada empat minyak nabati utama, yaitu: minyak kelapa sawit ket: setara minyak kasar kelapa sawit, minyak kedelai, minyak rapeseed dan minyak biji bunga matahari. Penggunaan istilah minyak nabati dalam penelitian ini selanjutnya menunjukkan empat minyak nabati utama di atas. Diketahui bahwa Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara produsen utama minyak kelapa sawit dan kelapa sawit telah menjadi komoditas strategis bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Oleh karena itu mucul permasalahan kedua berupa: bagaimana pengaruh keterkaitan harga minyak nabati dan minyak bumi dalam perdagangan dunia minyak nabati terhadap produksi, penawaran domestik, konsumsi dan ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia.

1.3 Tujuan Penelitian

Tujuan umum penelitian ini adalah mengkaji keterkaitan harga minyak nabati dan harga minyak bumi dalam perdagangan dunia minyak nabati secara simultan bersama dengan faktor eksternal lainnya. Minyak nabati yang dimaksud dalam penelitian ini meliputi minyak kelapa sawit, minyak kedelai, minyak rapeseed dan minyak biji bunga matahari.