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Forum Tahunan Pengembangan Iptek dan Inovasi Nasional V, Tahun 2015
The categorization of RD intensity and grouping of prosperity here based on the cluster of data distribution in X-Y graph with the references of
“Sussex manifesto” 1970 and World Bank category 2014. The Sussex manifesto defined the target of RD intensity for developing countries 0.5 of GDP
see Ely, 2009 and the World Bank category of prosperous country by high income percapita more than US 10,600. Therefore the categories of RD intensity are as follows: low less than 0.5 of GDP,
medium 0.5-1 of GDP, high 1-3.5 of GDP, and very high more than 3.5 of GDP. While the level of prosperity are grouped into: less prosperous GDP percapita less than US 10,600, prosperous GDP
percapita US 10,600-100,000, and very prosperous GDP percapita more than US 100,000
Levels of RD intensity viewed from economic prosperity vary by countries. The general pattern is that an increase in RD intensity in line with the increase of country economic prosperity. Most developed
economies with high level of RD intensity are prosperous countries. Two countries, Luxemberg and Norway with high RD intensity are very properous countries, Two countries, India and China, with high
RD intensity are still less prosperous countries. Only one country Korea with very high RD intensity is a properous countries. See Graph 4.
Furthermore for the countries with moderate level of RD intensity, we identify two countries Argentina and Slovakia are prosperous countries and one country South Africa is still less prosperous
country. Two countries Oman and Chile with low RD intensity are prosperous countries GDP percapita more than US 10,600. More ever, three countries Indonesia, Thailand and Philipinness with low RD
intensity are less prosperous countries. In short, properous countries tend to have RD intensity more than 0.5 of GDP, while less properious countries tend to have RD intensity less than 0.5 of GDP.
3.2. Capacity to raise RD intensity
As described previously, low level of RD intensity has persitently declining in Indonesia since 1980s. RD intensity was only 0.1 of GDP in 2013 not include RD intensity in higher education.
Based on GIR model, Indonesian RD intensity would rise from 0.1 2013 to around 0.72 of GDP in the year 2045 in conjuction with 100 years of Indonesian independence. The economic growth would
remain positive, although the economic instability could accur after the year 2020 for period of 5-10 years. Indonesia would have the resilience to pass the instability as it was in the success story of coping with the
Graph 4
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Forum Tahunan Pengembangan Iptek dan Inovasi Nasional V, Tahun 2015
global economics downturn in 2008. How such moderate figure of RD intensity 0.72 of GDP would happen in 2045. The figure is likely to happen
not as the repetition of Indonesian’s current story that has consistenly devoted to low figure of RD intensity in the last 30 years
, but it is the logic of low “initial condition” inside system that is “too small to have a big push”. See Graph 5.
The estimation of optimum push towards moderate figure of RD intensity 0.72 of GDP is depicted in Graph 6. In 2015 RD expenditure is largely 85 contributed by government sector. The
yearly increase of goverment budget for RD activities in public sector was normally constant around 10 per year. In the period 2015-2025, the goverment budget for RD activities in public sector is considered to
have average increase by around 15 per year, thus the amount of government budget for RD activities should increase four times from the position around Rp 13 trillion in 2015 to Rp 46 trillion in 2025. Along
with the private sector RD spending is expected to have average increase by around 30 per year, it should be rising 23 fold from the position of Rp 3.3 trillion in 2015 to Rp 77 trillion in 2025. These
optimum push could set back to low figure of RD intensity less than 0.5 of GDP, if Indonesia consistenly devoted with the business as usual BAU activities.
FUTURE TRENDS OF RD INTENSITY AND ECONOM IC GROWTH IN INDONESIA 2012-2045
TIME
RDpGDP rGDP
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 RDpGDP
rGDP 0,080
-13,0 RDpGDP
rGDP 0,208
-8,40 RDpGDP
rGDP 0,336
-3,80 RDpGDP
rGDP 0,464
0,800
RDpGDP rGDP
0,592 5,400
RDpGDP rGDP
0,720 10,00
Source: the simulation results of EGRI model, 2015
low initial condition
future past
Graph 5
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Forum Tahunan Pengembangan Iptek dan Inovasi Nasional V, Tahun 2015
Source: the simulation results of EGRI model, 2015
FUTURE TRENDS OF CHANGE IN GOVERNM ENT AND INDUSTRIAL RD IN INDONESIA 2012-2045
TIME P
E R
C E
N T
rGovRD rIndRD
1990 1995
2000 2005
2010 2015
2020 2025
2030 2035
2040 2045
0,0 10,0
20,0 30,0
40,0 50,0
60,0
Source: the simulation results of EGRI model, 2015 S HARE O F GOVERNMENT
AND INDUSTRIAL RD 1990-2045
TIME
Gov Ind
1990 2005
2020 2045
0,0 20,0
40,0 60,0
80,0 100,0
future past
The expectation towards high RD spending by industrial sector is supposed to be something unstoppable due to the pressure of global market ASEAN Economic Community, where ASEAN
producers fiercely compete to place for best product and services in regional market. The competitive race will become a reality where more industrial sectors are producing innovative products and service through
RD. It is the pressure of global market would carry out the industrial sector to shift its mindset from simply enjoying from what they have been successful producing without RD toward producing innovative
products through RD. The contribution of industrial sector in RD is expected to rise from 20 in 2015 to 62 in 2025.
3.3. High prosperity with moderate RD intensity in future
