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Forum Tahunan Pengembangan Iptek dan Inovasi Nasional V, Tahun 2015
Source: the simulation results of EGRI model, 2015
FUTURE TRENDS OF CHANGE IN GOVERNM ENT AND INDUSTRIAL RD IN INDONESIA 2012-2045
TIME P
E R
C E
N T
rGovRD rIndRD
1990 1995
2000 2005
2010 2015
2020 2025
2030 2035
2040 2045
0,0 10,0
20,0 30,0
40,0 50,0
60,0
Source: the simulation results of EGRI model, 2015 S HARE O F GOVERNMENT
AND INDUSTRIAL RD 1990-2045
TIME
Gov Ind
1990 2005
2020 2045
0,0 20,0
40,0 60,0
80,0 100,0
future past
The expectation towards high RD spending by industrial sector is supposed to be something unstoppable due to the pressure of global market ASEAN Economic Community, where ASEAN
producers fiercely compete to place for best product and services in regional market. The competitive race will become a reality where more industrial sectors are producing innovative products and service through
RD. It is the pressure of global market would carry out the industrial sector to shift its mindset from simply enjoying from what they have been successful producing without RD toward producing innovative
products through RD. The contribution of industrial sector in RD is expected to rise from 20 in 2015 to 62 in 2025.
3.3. High prosperity with moderate RD intensity in future
As explained before, the trend of Indonesian RD intensity is expected to increase from low 0.1 of GDP in 2013 towards moderate 0.72 of GDP in 2045. The moderate figure is still below the general
trend of prosperous countries. As a properous country, the magnitute of Indonesian economy would become US 5 trillion in 2035 and within 10 years afterward it would fold twice to US 9.5 trillion. In the year
2045 the total population of Indonesia is estimated to reach 357 million people. The Indonesian GDP percapita would increase from around US 3,760 2015 to become US 24,000 in 2045. The standard of
living Indonesian people in 2045 would be almost equal to the South Korea in 2015 GDP percapita US 24,000.
There is a sharp difference between Indonesia and South Korea. High GDP per capita of South Korea is fitting to the nation of leader in innovative technology, especially electronic and ICT. South Korea
is highly advanced economies in innovative industries and creative societies with RD expenditure of 3.4 of GDP 2012. While the Indonesian position in technology innovation would be still in the medium level
of sophistication. Indonesia would be difficult to have the global competitiveness in
sunrise industries
such nano-technology, biotechnology and renewable energy with RD expenditure would still 0.72 of GDP.
See Graph 7
Graph. 6
Graph. 7
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Forum Tahunan Pengembangan Iptek dan Inovasi Nasional V, Tahun 2015
FUTURE TRENDS OF RD INTENSITY AND GDP PER CAPITA US000 IN INDONESIA 2012-2045
TIME
RDpGDP GDPpCAP
1990 1995
2000 2005
2010 2015
2020 2025
2030 2035
2040 2045
RDpGDP GDPpCAP
0,080 0,000
RDpGDP GDPpCAP
0,208 5,000
RDpGDP GDPpCAP
0,336 10,00
RDpGDP GDPpCAP
0,464 15,00
RDpGDP GDPpCAP
0,592 20,00
RDpGDP GDPpCAP
0,720 25,00
Source: the simulation results of EGRI model, 2015
South Kore a 1990-2013
TIM E
GN IpC ap RDpGDP
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 GNIpCap
RDpGDP 6.000
1,60 GNIpCap
RDpGDP 9.800
1,98 GNIpCap
RDpGDP 13.600
2,36 GNIpCap
RDpGDP 17.400
2,74 GNIpCap
RDpGDP 21.200
3,12 GNIpCap
RDpGDP 25.000
3,50
future past
Although Indonesia is rich in natural resources and biodiversity but it seems would be unsuccessful to exploit promising technology through RD activities. Indonesia would face the
“uneven phenomenon” of high prosperity with moderate RD intensity, that is high living standard with GDP percapita of US 24
thousand coincides with technological dependence society. The medium figure of RD intensity around 0.72 of GDP generally relate to moderately innovative society. It is the feature of a country still buy
much and make less in fulfiling of people needs for products and services. Indonesia could prosper and be strong in term of GDP parallel with unhealthy condition due to lack of nutrient in technological learning
with RD intensity.
4. Balance of infrastructure quality and RD intensity
