BAU Baseline NAMAs – Conceptual Measures
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with which alternative outcomes, such as emission reduction difference between baseline and actual performance through mitigation actions can be
evaluated. The Baseline scenario related to climate change is an estimated emission level and GHG projection in a scenario without policy intervention
and mitigation technologies from the sectors identiied in an agreed period of time years 2010-2020.
Generally, baseline is understood as: 1. A non-intervention scenario;
2. A scenario that considers possible evolution of activities and developments
in the future. This may include: a. Macro-economic trend and demography
b. Economic structural change c. Projected activities and key green house gas GHG emission sink, as
well as d. Technological evolution that enables the use of eficient technologies
that impact GHG emission; 3. Establishment of the baseline scenario requires a long-term simulation
by the inclusion of considerations related to the uncertainties within the system evolution and related challenges;
4. Baseline is not a simple estimation from the latest trends. To establish the BAU baseline scenario, it is necessary to have an estimation
on planned long-term GHG emissions with start-year start-yearof calculation and end-yearend-year. For RAN-GRK goal and national target, year 2010 is
used as the start-start-year and year 2020 as endyear.
However, establishing the baseline by-sector is likely to be slightly different. For example, for REDD+, a historical baseline is developed to complete BAU
baseline scenario. The historical baseline used is from 2000 through 2020. This is possible as long as it uses the same year start and year end for the
establishment of baseline as the basis for national calculation of NAMAs, namely year 2010 through 2020.
During the establishment of the national BAU baseline scenario, it is better to consider the speciic structural nature of each sector. This is because every
sector may consist of sub-sector, sub-national or multi-layer levels according to the national situation.
The national BAU baseline is obtained through aggregation of each related sector by totaling annual absolute GHG values within the same period of time.
The calculation will be used as a national reference for measuring whether national emission reduction targets are achieved completely.
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Moreover, the national BAU baseline is inherently multi-sectoral and needs to be stablished through an integrated national process and bottom-up
approach.
Figure 5 demonstrates a process for establishing national BAU and multi- sector scenario.
National Business as Usual Baseline Aggregated BAU
Baseline
Required Integrated Processes to Establish National BAU Baselline
Aggregated BAU Baseline Bottom-up Approach
Energy Sector
By models and sub-national levels
Sub-national levels Industry Sub-sectors
Cement Pulp Paper
Iron Steel Textile
Interconnected and isolated power systems
Land Based Sector
Transport Sector
Other Activity
Industry Sector
REDD+ Power
Sector
Other Targeted Sector
1st Layer
2nd Layer
3rd Layer
Figure 5.
Baseline Establishment.
Measures in national BAU baseline establishment is by determining three layers for obtaining national aggregated BAU baseline scenario:
1. Develop aggregated BAU baseline scenario of each sub sector, for
example REDD+, industry. Further explanation for the development can be seen in Chapter 4.
2. Develop aggregated BAU baselines for each sector, for example the power, industry, land-based sectors. For this layer, it is better to use a
bottom-up approach than a top-down one. This is because every sector can consist of several sub-sectors for example, the industry sector, or
many sub-national levels for example, REDD+, or many interconnecting systems and isolated power systems such as in the power sector. Further
explanation for the development can also be seen in Chapter 4.
3. Develop a BAU baseline that aggregates all targeted sectors. In the BAU baseline information development, Bappenas acts as the
coordinator for developing the national BAU baseline. Every related MinistryAgency is responsible for developing the by-sector BAU baseline,
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and provincial governments in coordination with districtcity governments are responsible for the local BAU baseline development according to their
respective local authority.
Then a scenario must be developed for each layer by considering the following key factors:
1. Current and future policies without any intervention and climate change
policy action; 2. Market trends and the like;
3. Related uncertainty; 4. Evolution from supply and demand,
5. Cost saving; and 6. Expected system performance
The GHG emission target igure can then be calculated based on the, scenario and parameters that are applied as long as the period can use the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC methodology for GHG inventory calculation, for example, 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG
Inventories.
The target emission reduction volume will be different, depending on which BAU baseline is used. The level of uncertainty will depend on the various
sectors and factors such as trends in technologies process fuel, growing demand, etc.