Kesimpulan Saran SIMPULAN DAN SARAN
Lampiran 1. Laju Deforestasi Pada Kawasan Hutan Tetap
LAJU DEFORESTASI HaTahun Tahun
BAU SKENARIO REDD+
30 50
70 1
595263.3 416058.6
296588.8 177119.1
2 465787.1
325263.3 231580.8
137898.4 3
314342.2 283803.5
201812.4 119821.5
4 110078
258885.1 183853.7
108827 5
22811.45 151205.7
291498.3 240498.4
6 6201.9
33960.9 22866.75
11792.67 7
2276.17 20789.51
85764.44 49312.5
8 58028.91
46037.36 46233.88
25373.36 9
3753.11 3883.96
4664.43 208.01
10 5122.69
3553.24 4751.23
32.17 11
5196.78 3213.42
4226.46 502.52
12 5273.84
3134.45 3701.94
1037.16 13
5354.07 3134.34
3177.68 1571.74
14 5437.7
3158.49 2653.68
2106.29 15
5524.99 3190.6
2129.96 2640.78
16 5616.18
3225.77 1606.53
3175.22 17
5711.6 3262.55
1083.39 3709.62
18 5811.58
3300.59 560.54
4243.95 19
5916.48 3339.77
38.01 4778.24
20 6026.73
3380.13 484.2
5312.47 21
6142.78 3421.7
1006.08 5846.65
22 6265.19
3464.54 1527.63
6380.76 23
6394.52 3003.97
2048.82 6914.84
24 6531.48
2509.95 2569.64
7448.84 25
6676.83 2017.43
3090.1 7982.78
26 6831.44
1526.45 3610.16
5879.88 27
6996.38 1037.14
4129.83 7064.7
28 7172.81
549.57 4649.08
7070.53 29
7362.14 63.86
5167.9 7076.43
30 7566
419.89 5686.27
7082.4 Rata-rata
56915.81 53126.53
47425.42 32290.29
Lampiran 2. Laju Degradasi Pada Kawasan Hutan Tetap
LAJU DEGRADASI TonTahun Tahun
BAU SKENARIO REDD+
30 50
70 1
207,151,622 144,788,398 103,212,916
61,637,434 2
162,093,900 113,191,631 80,590,131
47,988,643 3
109,391,088 98,763,630 70,230,727
41,697,865 4
38,307,158 90,092,004 63,981,081
37,871,798 5
7,938,384 52,619,599 101,441,394
83,693,427 6
2,158,264 11,818,395 7,957,628
4,103,848 7
792,105 7,234,749 29,846,027 17,160,750
8 20,194,061 16,021,000
16,089,391 8,829,932
9 1,306,084 1,351,620 1,623,220 72,385
10 1,782,698
1,236,525 1,653,429 11,195 11
1,808,479 1,118,270 1,470,808 174,876
12 1,835,295
1,090,789 1,288,275 360,930 13
1,863,216 1,090,749
1,105,832 546,968 14
1,892,321 1,099,158
923,482 732,988 15
1,922,695 1,110,329
741,228 918,992 16
1,954,432 1,122,565 559,072
1,104,978 17
1,987,638 1,135,370
377,018 1,290,946
18 2,022,429
1,148,605 195,069
1,476,896 19
2,058,935 1,162,241
13,228 1,662,827
20 2,097,301
1,176,285 168,502
1,848,740 21
2,137,689 1,190,751
350,117 2,034,633
22 2,180,285
1,205,659 531,614
2,220,507 23
2,225,295 1,045,382
712,989 2,406,362
24 2,272,955
873,464 894,237
2,592,196 25
2,323,534 702,063
1,075,354 2,778,010
26 2,377,344
531,206 1,256,337
2,046,196 27
2,434,740 360,924
1,437,180 2,458,515
28 2,496,138
191,251 1,617,879
2,460,545 29
2,562,023 22,223
1,798,428 2,462,598
30 2,632,967
146,121 1,978,823
2,464,673 Rata-rata 19,806,702 18,488,032
16,504,047 11,237,022
119
Lampiran 3. Laju Deforestasi Pada Setiap Fungsi Hutan
TAHUN LAJU DEFORESTASI
BAU 30
50 70
HK HL
HP HK
HL HP
HK HL
HP HK
HL HP
1 453
- 594,810
317 -
415,742 226
- 296,362
136 -
176,983 2
64,883 -
400,904 64,708
- 260,555
64,591 -
166,990 64,474
- 73,424
3 127,154
17,018 204,206
121,736 17,203
179,270 118,124
13,799 97,487
114,512 10,395
15,704 4
29,770 28,247
108,555 20,826
19,773 257,832
14,870 14,124
183,107 8,919
8,474 108,383
5 1,957
21,394 540
1,327 14,976
134,903 929
10,697 279,873
546 6,418
233,534 6
2,358 4,384
540 1,596
3,069 29,296
1,116 2,192
19,559 656
1,315 9,822
7 2,736
80 540
1,849 56
18,885 1,291
40 84,433
758 24
48,531 8
4,096 54,473
540 2,780
38,131 5,126
1,948 27,237
17,050 1,147
16,342 7,885
9 4,293
- 540
2,886 -
998 2,009
- 2,656
1,176 -
968 10
453 -
540 317
- 240
226 -
2,116 136
- 1,507
RATA- RATA
23,815 12,560
131,172 21,834
9,321 130,285
20,533 6,809
114,963 19,246
4,297 67,674
1 1
9
Lampiran 4. Simulasi Income REDD Berdasarkan Tingkat Harga Karbon UsTon di Semua Fungsi Hutan Juta US
TAHUN SIMULASI HARGA KARBON PADA STANDAR CCB
5 US 10 US
35 US 30
50 70
30 50
70 30
50 70
5
349 2,654
5,896 1,054
8,005 17,784
2,463 18,708
41,558
10
-136 1,227
4,447 -412
3,701 13,412
-962 8,648
31,342
15
-167 1,168
4,470 -504
3,524 13,481
-1,179 8,235
31,504
20
-198 1,151
4,552 -598
3,472 13,729
-1,397 8,114
32,083
25
-228 1,175
4,693 -688
3,545 14,155
-1,608 8,285
33,079
30
-238 1,241
4,661 -718
3,742 14,057
-1,678 8,745
32,850
35
-225 1,347
4,503 -678
4,063 13,583
-1,585 9,495
31,742
RATA-RATA 5 TAHUN
-121 1,423
4,746 -363
4,293 14,314
-849 10,033
33,451
Lampiran 5. Simulasi Income REDD+ Pada Setiap Fungsi Pada Standar CCB milyar US
Periode HUTAN KONSERVASI
HUTAN LINDUNG HUTAN PRODUKSI
30 50
70 30
50 70
30 50
70 5
0.46 0.16
0.81 0.16
-0.66 0.45
0.81 -0.42
2.8 10
0.48 0.14
0.79 0.14
-0.78 -0.83
0.79 -0.53
1.48 15
0.48 0.14
0.79 0.14
-0.78 -0.85
0.79 -0.53
1.54 20
0.48 0.14
0.79 0.14
-0.78 -0.82
0.79 -0.53
1.65 25
0.48 0.14
0.79 0.14
-0.78 -0.75
0.79 -0.53
1.83 30
0.48 0.14
0.79 0.14
-0.78 -0.64
0.79 -0.53
1.83 35
0.48 0.14
0.79 0.14
-0.66 -0.48
0.79 -0.43
1.71 Rata-rata 5 tahunan
0.48 0.14
0.80 0.14
0.75 0.56
0.79 0.50
1.83
Lampiran 6. Simulasi Income REDD+ Pada Setiap Fungsi Pada Standar Carbon Fix milyar US
Periode HUTAN KONSERVASI
HUTAN LINDUNG HUTAN PRODUKSI
30 50
70 30
50 70
30 50
70 5
0.40 0.14
0.71 0.80
0.57 0.37
0.85 0.39 2.44
10 0.42
0.12 0.69
0.89 0.68
0.46 1.16
0.72 1.29
15 0.42
0.12 0.69
0.89 0.68
0.46 1.16
0.74 1.34
20 0.42
0.12 0.69
0.89 0.68
0.46 1.15
0.71 1.44
25 0.42
0.12 0.69
0.89 0.68
0.46 1.14
0.65 1.59
30 0.42
0.12 0.69
0.89 0.68
0.46 1.11
0.56 1.60
35 0.42
0.12 0.69
0.89 0.68
0.46 1.06
0.42 1.49
Rata-rata 5 tahunan 0.42
0.12 0.69
0.88 0.67 0.45
1.09 0.49
1.60
Lampiran 7. Simulasi Income REDD+ Pada Setiap Fungsi Pada Standar Plan Vivo milyar US
Periode HUTAN KONSERVASI
HUTAN LINDUNG HUTAN PRODUKSI
30 50
70 30
50 70
30 50
70 5
0.44 0.15
0.77 0.87
0.62 0.40
0.92 0.42
2.66 10
0.46 0.13
0.75 0.97
0.74 0.50
1.26 0.79 1.40
15 0.46
0.13 0.75
0.97 0.74
0.50 1.26 0.80
1.46 20
0.46 0.13
0.75 0.97
0.74 0.50
1.25 0.78 1.57
25 0.46
0.13 0.75
0.97 0.74
0.50 1.24 0.71
1.73 30
0.46 0.13
0.75 0.97
0.74 0.50
1.21 0.61 1.74
35 0.46
0.13 0.75
0.97 0.74
0.50 1.15 0.46
1.62 Rata-rata 5 tahunan
0.45 0.14
0.75 0.96 0.73 0.49
1.19 0.53 1.74
Lampiran 8. Simulasi Income REDD+ Pada Setiap Fungsi Pada Standar Voluntary Carbon AFOLU 1 milyar US
Periode REDD+ 30
REDD+ 50 REDD+ 70
HK HL
HP HK
HL HP
HK HL
HP 5
0.46 0.16
0.81 0.92 0.66
0.42 0.97
0.45 2.80
10 0.48
0.14 0.79
1.02 0.78 0.53
1.33 0.83 1.48
15 0.48
0.14 0.79
1.02 0.78 0.53
1.33 0.85 1.54
20 0.48
0.14 0.79
1.02 0.78 0.53
1.32 0.82 1.65
25 0.48
0.14 0.79
1.02 0.78 0.53
1.31 0.75 1.83
30 0.48
0.14 0.79
1.02 0.78 0.53
1.28 0.64 1.83
35 0.48
0.14 0.79
1.02 0.78 0.53
1.22 0.48 1.71
Rata-rata 5 tahunan 0.48
0.14 0.80
1.01 0.77 0.51
1.25 0.56 1.84
Lampiran 9. Spesifikasi Model Kuantitatif 1.
Dinamika Perubahan Landscape Jambi BAU
KebunKopiTNKSt = KebunKopiTNKSt - dt + PerambahanTNKS - REDDHK dtINIT KebunKopiTNKS = 0
INFLOWS: PerambahanTNKS = LuasTNKSLuasHKonservasiLajuPerambah2
OUTFLOWS: REDDHK = PerambahanTNKSSkenario_REDD
LuasAPLt = LuasAPLt - dt + TranstoAPL dtINIT LuasAPL = 2920560+LuasTrans
INFLOWS: TranstoAPL = LuasTrans0
LuasHKonservasit = LuasHKonservasit - dt + REDDHK + REDDMUTASI_HK - MutasiOutHKtoHP - MutasiOutHK - PerambahanTNKS
dtINIT LuasHKonservasi = 676130
INFLOWS: REDDHK = PerambahanTNKSSkenario_REDD
REDDMUTASI_HK = Skenario_REDDMutasiOutHK OUTFLOWS:
MutasiOutHKtoHP = GRAPHTIME 1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 64299, 3.00, 109095, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 0.00,
7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00 MutasiOutHK = GRAPHTIME
1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 17185, 4.00, 28247, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 0.00, 7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 720, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00
PerambahanTNKS = LuasTNKSLuasHKonservasiLajuPerambah2 LuasHLt = LuasHLt - dt + MutasiOutHK + MutasiInHL + PinjamInHK +
REDDHL - PinjamOutHL - REDDMUTASI_HK dtINIT LuasHL = 191130 INFLOWS:
MutasiOutHK = GRAPHTIME 1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 17185, 4.00, 28247, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 0.00,
7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 720, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00 MutasiInHL = GRAPHTIME
1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 5290, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 0.00 PinjamInHK = if time30 then 0LuasTambang else 0
REDDHL = PinjamOutHLSkenario_REDD OUTFLOWS:
PinjamOutHL = GRAPHTIME 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 167, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 21394,
6.00, 4384, 7.00, 80.0, 8.00, 55193, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00 REDDMUTASI_HK = Skenario_REDDMutasiOutHK
LuasHPt = LuasHPt - dt + MutasiOutHKtoHP + ReboisasiHP + REDDHPTrans + REDDHPH + REDDKebun + REDDHPK - MutasiInHL -
MutasiInLuasHPK - LepasluasHPToTrans - AlokasiluasHPkeKebun - alokasiluasHPkHPH dtINIT LuasHP = 1312180
INFLOWS: MutasiOutHKtoHP = GRAPHTIME
1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 64299, 3.00, 109095, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 0.00, 7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00
ReboisasiHP = 539.6time+1546 REDDHPTrans = LepasluasHPToTransSkenario_REDD
REDDHPH = alokasiluasHPkHPHSkenario_REDD REDDKebun = AlokasiluasHPkeKebunSkenario_REDD
REDDHPK = MutasiInLuasHPKSkenario_REDD OUTFLOWS:
MutasiInHL = GRAPHTIME 1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 5290, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 0.00
MutasiInLuasHPK = GRAPHTIME 1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 4076, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 2860,
7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00 LepasluasHPToTrans = if time=7 then 45808 else 0
AlokasiluasHPkeKebun = GRAPHTIME 0.00, 17881, 1.00, 51337, 2.00, 22338, 3.00, 76489, 4.00, 45274, 5.00,
0.00, 6.00, 0.00, 7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 18116, 10.0, 18116 alokasiluasHPkHPH = GRAPHTIME
0.00, 545559, 1.00, 545559, 2.00, 445490, 3.00, 328349, 4.00, 328349, 5.00, 792594, 6.00, 45825, 7.00, 133705, 8.00, 45825, 9.00, 0.00
LuasHPHt = LuasHPHt - dt + alokasiluasHPkHPH - AlokasiluasHPHkHTI - ReboisasiHP - REDDHPH dtINIT LuasHPH = 0
INFLOWS: alokasiluasHPkHPH = GRAPHTIME
0.00, 545559, 1.00, 545559, 2.00, 445490, 3.00, 328349, 4.00, 328349, 5.00, 792594, 6.00, 45825, 7.00, 133705, 8.00, 45825, 9.00, 0.00
OUTFLOWS: AlokasiluasHPHkHTI = GRAPHTIME
0.00, 12100, 1.00, 18038, 2.00, 21017, 3.00, 19027, 4.00, 13260, 5.00, 23007, 6.00, 16294, 7.00, 15569, 8.00, 26134, 9.00, 15012, 10.0, 25337
ReboisasiHP = 539.6time+1546 REDDHPH = alokasiluasHPkHPHSkenario_REDD
LuasHPKt = LuasHPKt - dt + MutasiInLuasHPK - LepasHPK_ke_Trans - REDDHPK dtINIT LuasHPK = MutasiInLuasHPK
INFLOWS: MutasiInLuasHPK = GRAPHTIME
1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 4076, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 2860, 7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00
OUTFLOWS: LepasHPK_ke_Trans = GRAPHTIME
1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 0.00, 4.00, 2712, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 0.00, 7.00, 4224, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00
REDDHPK = MutasiInLuasHPKSkenario_REDD LuasHTIt = LuasHTIt - dt + AlokasiluasHPHkHTI dtINIT LuasHTI = 0
INFLOWS: AlokasiluasHPHkHTI = GRAPHTIME
0.00, 12100, 1.00, 18038, 2.00, 21017, 3.00, 19027, 4.00, 13260, 5.00, 23007, 6.00, 16294, 7.00, 15569, 8.00, 26134, 9.00, 15012, 10.0, 25337
LuasKebunt = LuasKebunt - dt + AlokasiluasHPkeKebun - REDDKebun dtINIT LuasKebun = 0
INFLOWS: AlokasiluasHPkeKebun = GRAPHTIME
0.00, 17881, 1.00, 51337, 2.00, 22338, 3.00, 76489, 4.00, 45274, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 0.00, 7.00, 0.00, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 18116, 10.0, 18116
OUTFLOWS: REDDKebun = AlokasiluasHPkeKebunSkenario_REDD
LuasTambangt = LuasTambangt - dt + PinjamOutHL - PinjamInHK - REDDHL dtINIT LuasTambang = 0
INFLOWS: PinjamOutHL = GRAPHTIME
0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 167, 4.00, 0.00, 5.00, 21394, 6.00, 4384, 7.00, 80.0, 8.00, 55193, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00
OUTFLOWS: PinjamInHK = if time30 then 0LuasTambang else 0
REDDHL = PinjamOutHLSkenario_REDD LuasTranst = LuasTranst - dt + LepasHPK_ke_Trans + LepasluasHPToTrans
- TranstoAPL - REDDHPTrans dtINIT LuasTrans = LepasHPK_ke_Trans INFLOWS:
LepasHPK_ke_Trans = GRAPHTIME 1.00, 0.00, 2.00, 0.00, 3.00, 0.00, 4.00, 2712, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00, 0.00,
7.00, 4224, 8.00, 0.00, 9.00, 0.00, 10.0, 0.00 LepasluasHPToTrans = if time=7 then 45808 else 0
OUTFLOWS: TranstoAPL = LuasTrans0
REDDHPTrans = LepasluasHPToTransSkenario_REDD LuasTNKS = 422190
Skenario_REDD = 1 LajuPerambah = GRAPHTIME
0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 363, 2.00, 468, 3.00, 632, 4.00, 872, 5.00, 1052, 6.00, 1262, 7.00, 1457, 8.00, 1786, 9.00, 2251, 10.0, 2940