Saran Penelitian Selanjutnya KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

Sugema, I., R. Mulyana, A. Munir, E. S. Hartati, D. A. Purwanto dan U. Hidayat. 2005. Bank BRI Keluar dari Krisis: dari Restrukturisasi Sampai IPO. INDEF. Supriyanto, E. B. 2003. Pete Kekuatan Perbankan Setelah Enam Tahun Krisis. BEI News Edisi 17 Tahun IV, November-Desember 2003. Suseno dan P. Abdullah. Desember 2003. Sistem dan Kebijakan Perbankan di Indonesia. Seri Kebanksentralan No.7. Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan PPSK, Bank Indonesia, Jakarta. Tambunan, T. September 2002. Building An Early Warning System for Indonesia with The Signal Approach. Thailand Development Research Institute. Bank Indonesia. Juni 2005. Analisa Triwulanan: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, Bank Indonesia, Jakarta. Yustika, A. E. 2002. Pembangunan dan Krisis: Memetakan Perekonomian Indonesia. Grasindo, Jakarta. Lampiran 1. Data yang Digunakan dalam Analisis ISP IMV IBC IBV ER i3mo IR REER DC M2 CPI EQ NPL CAR LDR ROA OCOR FL IPI Periode Rp miliar Miliar Rp Miliar Rp Miliar Rp 1995 jan 2207.00 14.69 16806.00 115.77 190234.00 176227.00 31.74 433.83 13.46 11.70 81.82 0.64 0.88 22276.00 64.21 feb 2212.00 15.35 16821.90 117.04 192747.00 179789.00 32.16 453.58 13.14 11.47 82.59 0.59 0.92 22473.00 61.04 mar 2219.00 15.92 17139.10 112.08 196149.00 181701.00 32.34 428.64 12.94 10.43 81.73 0.54 0.90 23445.00 57.68 apr 2227.00 16.39 17061.70 112.19 199529.00 182737.00 32.89 416.45 13.16 11.47 82.64 0.53 0.91 23520.00 65.84 may 2236.00 16.73 17069.30 112.16 203039.00 185164.00 33.05 475.28 13.04 11.14 81.70 0.55 0.91 22709.00 68.52 jun 2246.00 17.09 18415.40 113.34 207762.00 192126.00 33.10 492.28 12.74 10.84 81.00 0.60 0.90 23431.00 72.77 jul 2256.00 17.42 19502.40 115.62 211764.00 196820.00 33.34 512.06 13.23 10.81 81.44 0.52 0.91 23195.00 74.25 aug 2266.00 17.61 18967.50 118.85 216765.00 202085.00 33.44 500.75 12.88 10.84 81.15 0.51 0.91 24134.00 74.48 sep 2276.00 17.60 18975.50 119.86 220859.00 206079.00 33.57 493.24 12.59 10.78 80.89 0.43 0.91 24119.00 74.50 oct 2285.00 17.41 18452.50 121.41 224260.00 211148.00 33.79 488.45 12.70 10.88 81.32 0.60 0.91 23591.00 76.19 nov 2296.00 17.25 18804.20 121.24 226378.00 215788.00 33.93 481.73 12.81 12.07 82.35 1.15 0.91 25786.00 75.59 dec 2308.00 17.15 18786.50 122.87 234611.00 222638.00 34.20 513.85 11.13 11.85 81.07 1.75 0.92 26952.00 73.28 1996 jan 2311.00 17.20 18245.50 126.72 235032.00 222865.00 35.25 578.56 11.52 12.47 80.59 1.18 0.87 25672.00 75.58 feb 2322.00 17.22 20245.30 125.79 238267.00 227948.00 35.72 585.21 11.47 12.34 82.11 1.17 0.92 26903.00 62.47 mar 2338.00 17.29 20554.30 124.03 242423.00 232493.00 35.48 585.71 11.34 11.98 80.60 1.15 0.91 27062.00 79.93 apr 2342.00 17.38 20540.80 123.33 248996.00 238004.00 35.58 623.91 11.48 11.94 80.27 1.22 0.90 26543.00 82.97 may 2354.00 17.38 19771.70 125.42 253492.00 242153.00 35.81 617.47 11.82 11.97 80.23 1.22 0.91 26676.00 88.63 jun 2342.00 17.35 20708.20 125.81 260755.00 249443.00 35.55 594.26 11.82 12.02 81.14 1.20 0.90 26712.00 87.90 jul 2353.00 17.35 20944.40 124.55 264554.00 253392.00 35.80 536.03 11.34 12.05 78.95 1.24 0.91 27556.00 92.28 aug 2363.00 17.26 20686.80 125.24 267443.00 255284.00 35.78 547.61 11.38 11.87 79.37 1.24 0.92 27596.00 90.50 sep 2340.00 17.25 20471.80 127.39 273395.00 259926.00 35.85 573.94 11.25 11.78 79.34 1.23 0.92 26494.00 89.02 oct 2352.00 17.18 20701.20 128.17 278099.00 268320.00 35.99 568.03 10.87 11.77 78.23 1.14 0.92 27533.00 93.69 nov 2368.00 17.18 22479.10 127.54 281985.00 277359.00 36.14 613.01 10.87 12.04 77.67 1.15 0.92 29443.00 89.47 dec 2383.00 17.03 25528.60 127.86 292921.00 288632.00 36.26 637.43 9.54 11.82 78.31 1.22 0.92 29744.00 83.91 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan ISP IMV IBC IBV ER i3mo IR REER DC M2 CPI EQ NPL CAR LDR ROA OCOR FL IPI Periode Rp miliar Miliar Rp Miliar Rp Miliar Rp 1997 jan 2396.00 16.85 26959.90 131.45 294317.00 290853.00 36.88 691.12 9.84 11.98 79.76 1.15 0.93 29818.00 85.61 feb 2406.00 16.66 26889.80 130.80 298153.00 293240.00 37.16 705.37 9.99 12.10 77.33 1.17 0.94 29594.00 67.45 mar 2419.00 16.47 26611.50 132.66 306125.00 294581.00 37.17 662.24 10.14 12.19 79.57 1.17 0.93 32640.00 88.00 apr 2433.00 16.25 27432.30 131.56 311361.00 299277.00 37.32 652.05 10.10 11.19 80.67 1.11 0.93 33187.00 85.98 may 2440.00 16.06 28657.50 128.11 317737.00 303667.00 37.43 696.03 9.78 11.12 80.89 1.13 0.92 33187.00 88.48 jun 2450.00 15.93 28854.20 127.11 328808.00 312839.04 37.42 724.56 9.21 9.80 93.25 1.12 0.91 32722.00 89.22 jul 2599.00 15.84 28573.20 121.65 340028.00 317533.00 37.72 721.27 8.83 9.84 79.38 1.27 0.90 38977.00 90.18 aug 3035.00 21.73 27535.50 109.72 358369.00 325911.00 38.06 493.96 8.76 9.74 83.15 1.18 0.93 46247.00 89.79 sep 3275.00 26.22 27558.60 100.08 368517.00 329074.00 38.48 546.69 9.10 9.62 82.61 1.11 0.93 49011.00 89.37 oct 3670.00 27.73 24590.00 92.81 384551.00 340744.00 39.02 500.42 9.12 9.49 81.91 1.03 0.94 54027.00 87.96 nov 3648.00 26.51 24073.00 96.93 375767.00 330558.75 39.32 401.71 8.87 9.35 81.04 0.95 0.94 53065.00 78.65 dec 4650.00 23.92 21418.20 69.46 378134.00 355642.86 40.00 401.71 8.15 9.19 86.43 1.37 0.95 70434.00 81.40 1998 jan 10375.00 22.86 19063.30 31.97 511132.00 450697.00 42.75 485.94 8.91 6.93 85.24 2.01 0.96 153484.00 66.53 feb 8750.00 24.00 16333.70 50.33 480080.00 430240.69 48.20 482.38 10.19 7.25 83.17 1.40 0.97 132796.00 58.54 mar 8325.00 27.26 16589.80 54.49 476841.00 449824.29 50.85 541.43 13.12 4.28 83.17 0.38 1.01 119856.00 74.57 apr 7970.00 29.40 17744.80 60.14 468715.00 453396.25 53.16 460.14 16.84 4.30 88.07 -0.51 1.02 108933.00 70.46 may 10525.00 32.95 19026.70 45.86 527455.00 493908.75 56.02 420.47 23.12 7.24 89.93 0.65 1.03 143453.00 68.05 jun 14900.00 40.63 18805.00 37.54 626465.00 565784.77 58.62 445.92 28.82 6.03 87.36 1.88 1.02 189467.00 73.07 jul 13000.00 43.01 19527.40 46.07 581650.00 556551.74 63.64 481.72 33.26 4.84 84.69 -0.92 0.96 164614.00 76.10 aug 11075.00 44.35 19914.10 58.35 543976.00 540860.74 67.65 342.44 36.27 1.11 82.33 -4.50 1.09 133417.00 75.93 sep 10700.00 47.38 20540.60 60.88 535975.00 550404.00 70.19 276.15 40.51 -0.18 81.06 -5.64 0.94 127312.00 75.62 oct 7550.00 54.67 21743.10 80.20 471368.00 531977.48 70.00 300.77 44.21 -5.41 74.75 -9.88 1.20 91060.00 77.55 nov 7300.00 53.06 22770.50 84.16 469571.00 550936.00 70.05 386.27 47.02 -7.61 72.85 -11.21 1.29 86915.00 70.93 dec 8025.00 49.23 23599.20 76.80 487426.00 577381.33 71.05 398.04 53.79 -15.70 72.39 -18.76 1.45 97842.00 74.40 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan ISP IMV IBC IBV ER i3mo IR REER DC M2 CPI EQ NPL CAR LDR ROA OCOR FL IPI Periode Rp miliar Miliar Rp Miliar Rp Miliar Rp 1999 jan 8950.00 45.50 24625.00 71.22 504282.00 592305.55 73.16 411.93 59.42 -16.02 72.17 -19.86 1.20 102851.00 54.13 feb 8730.00 38.20 24277.30 75.40 499938.00 602666.00 74.08 396.09 60.93 -24.64 71.92 -21.81 1.53 99990.00 66.70 mar 8685.00 34.85 25817.40 76.47 366543.00 603325.11 73.90 393.63 54.99 -24.64 71.92 -22.59 1.70 93568.00 77.53 apr 8260.00 34.09 26004.20 79.78 287877.00 613140.00 73.44 495.22 46.71 -24.64 71.92 -23.92 1.64 95362.00 78.18 may 8105.00 31.20 25967.30 81.25 277602.00 628260.00 73.24 585.24 47.11 -48.30 39.80 -26.11 1.62 90704.00 79.67 jun 6726.00 27.39 26897.10 97.68 251262.00 615411.00 72.99 662.03 45.66 -57.25 41.18 -28.94 1.63 72542.00 78.68 jul 6875.00 23.45 26587.50 92.94 249428.00 627207.00 72.22 597.87 45.43 -25.14 30.03 -25.90 1.70 70666.00 83.36 aug 7565.00 19.06 26797.60 80.24 257575.00 636529.00 71.55 567.03 45.62 -14.31 30.52 -17.31 1.68 78838.00 82.36 sep 8386.00 15.88 26911.10 72.20 263262.00 652289.00 70.96 547.94 44.38 -20.81 31.42 -17.26 1.48 86340.00 85.62 oct 6900.00 13.37 27137.40 86.87 242979.00 628896.00 71.00 593.87 43.23 -23.18 30.17 -13.04 1.40 69991.00 86.83 nov 7425.00 12.91 27479.20 82.16 247284.00 639347.00 71.18 583.77 41.83 -9.44 30.12 -12.01 1.36 74630.00 87.21 dec 7100.00 12.95 27305.00 85.71 225133.00 646205.00 72.41 676.92 36.86 -8.12 26.03 -6.14 1.52 74623.00 85.64 2000 jan 7425.00 12.85 28021.50 83.81 225990.00 650597.00 73.37 636.37 37.63 -6.31 25.47 -6.13 1.05 77185.00 62.59 feb 7505.00 12.64 28157.60 85.10 228745.00 653334.00 73.42 576.54 37.25 -2.94 26.65 -3.29 1.07 76128.00 80.84 mar 7590.00 12.40 29728.70 80.89 223235.00 656451.00 73.09 583.28 35.28 -0.97 28.64 -2.56 1.13 73157.00 86.82 apr 7945.00 12.16 29477.80 78.94 228777.00 665651.00 73.49 526.74 35.13 0.89 29.07 -1.88 1.09 78511.00 81.84 may 8620.00 11.81 29139.20 73.42 237929.00 683477.00 74.11 454.33 33.08 2.66 29.50 -1.27 1.05 81185.00 90.51 jun 8735.00 11.69 29759.30 71.99 240135.00 684335.00 74.48 515.11 32.20 4.33 29.93 -0.71 1.02 80762.00 90.11 jul 9003.00 11.79 27404.30 72.59 246026.00 689934.75 75.44 492.19 31.49 5.90 30.36 -0.21 1.00 83339.00 94.49 aug 8290.00 12.36 27450.90 78.01 241913.00 685602.00 75.82 466.38 29.77 7.38 30.79 0.24 0.99 73191.00 97.22 sep 8780.00 12.84 28094.20 73.80 248994.00 686453.00 75.78 421.34 28.23 8.78 31.23 0.64 0.98 79173.00 96.34 oct 9395.00 13.09 28735.60 70.14 260677.00 707447.00 76.66 405.35 27.47 10.09 31.66 0.99 0.98 80442.00 97.85 nov 9530.00 13.17 29023.50 71.07 265190.00 720261.00 77.67 429.21 25.06 11.31 32.09 1.30 0.98 92319.00 96.02 dec 9595.00 13.24 29393.70 72.53 269000.00 747028.00 79.18 416.32 19.43 12.46 33.41 1.56 0.98 92675.00 82.11 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan ISP IMV IBC IBV ER i3mo IR REER DC M2 CPI EQ NPL CAR LDR ROA OCOR FL IPI Periode Rp miliar Miliar Rp Miliar Rp Miliar Rp 2001 jan 9450.00 13.83 29256.80 73.83 264915.00 738731.00 79.44 425.61 19.21 13.72 31.51 0.96 1.01 82403.00 84.19 feb 9835.00 14.35 29091.10 72.14 274533.00 755898.00 80.13 428.30 18.35 14.74 31.08 1.03 0.99 79277.00 85.89 mar 10400.00 14.86 28672.70 71.02 285375.00 766812.00 80.85 381.05 18.62 14.19 32.11 1.24 1.01 81710.00 90.24 apr 11675.00 14.93 28713.40 63.94 306011.00 792227.00 81.22 358.23 19.00 14.21 33.57 1.04 1.01 92880.00 89.49 may 11058.00 14.92 28593.90 66.27 301905.00 788320.00 82.13 405.86 18.03 15.41 33.77 1.02 0.94 86075.00 95.40 jun 11440.00 15.00 28638.20 66.91 306333.00 796440.00 83.50 437.62 16.84 15.80 34.60 0.19 1.03 86340.00 96.11 jul 9525.00 15.14 28938.20 81.99 289661.00 771135.00 85.28 444.08 15.76 17.43 33.85 0.36 1.05 72577.00 97.34 aug 8865.00 15.62 28555.00 85.26 287890.00 774037.00 85.10 435.55 15.63 19.44 34.00 0.49 1.04 63578.00 98.75 sep 9675.00 16.16 28957.10 78.76 304420.00 783104.00 85.64 392.48 14.47 19.04 35.14 0.72 1.05 69293.00 96.50 oct 10435.00 16.67 28595.90 74.53 318735.00 808514.00 86.22 383.74 14.21 18.96 35.60 1.62 0.98 72944.00 99.40 nov 10430.00 17.06 28022.10 76.64 303018.00 821691.00 87.69 380.31 13.53 19.01 33.71 1.55 0.98 70136.00 96.15 dec 10400.00 17.24 28015.80 80.09 307594.00 844053.00 89.11 392.04 11.66 19.93 33.01 1.45 0.98 68406.00 72.45 2002 jan 10320.00 17.39 27771.40 82.99 302022.00 838022.00 90.89 451.64 11.43 23.42 32.25 1.31 1.00 67091.00 87.76 feb 10189.00 17.24 27937.00 85.39 302504.00 837160.00 92.25 453.25 11.94 23.38 32.49 1.53 0.98 64147.00 80.65 mar 9655.00 17.02 28003.50 88.29 302776.00 831411.00 92.23 481.78 12.42 24.20 33.19 1.76 0.96 62899.00 89.60 apr 9316.00 16.57 28151.20 90.93 303155.00 828278.00 92.01 534.06 12.84 23.18 33.44 1.77 0.97 59516.00 95.78 may 8785.00 16.24 28756.00 95.94 303247.00 833084.00 92.75 530.79 11.92 23.43 33.37 1.77 0.97 49752.00 97.08 jun 8730.00 15.85 29278.70 93.87 312018.00 838635.00 93.08 505.01 11.27 23.25 34.36 2.16 0.94 46421.00 96.86 jul 9108.00 15.26 30323.70 91.33 322600.00 852718.00 93.85 463.67 11.69 23.48 34.91 1.96 0.96 46781.00 102.87 aug 8867.00 14.77 30156.40 93.17 331429.00 856835.00 94.11 443.67 11.06 23.17 35.83 1.81 0.98 45792.00 102.53 sep 9015.00 14.36 30040.80 93.62 341172.00 859706.00 94.62 419.31 10.08 24.04 36.90 1.92 0.97 49588.00 101.07 oct 9233.00 13.94 29896.90 91.72 347788.00 863010.00 95.12 369.04 9.90 23.03 37.03 1.99 0.96 50998.00 104.32 nov 8976.00 13.76 29994.50 95.82 356705.00 870046.00 96.88 390.43 9.55 22.77 38.22 1.86 0.97 51726.00 102.37 dec 8940.00 13.63 32037.00 95.28 365410.00 883908.00 98.05 424.95 7.57 22.44 38.24 1.96 0.95 51895.00 76.98 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan ISP IMV IBC IBV ER i3mo IR REER DC M2 CPI EQ NPL CAR LDR ROA OCOR FL IPI Periode Rp miliar Miliar Rp Miliar Rp Miliar Rp 2003 jan 8876.00 13.49 32181.90 96.64 358084.00 873683.00 98.85 388.44 7.94 23.90 37.79 2.13 0.94 50855.00 94.44 feb 8905.00 13.15 32217.80 96.71 366467.00 881215.00 99.03 399.22 7.66 25.30 38.05 2.14 0.94 47997.00 93.19 mar 8908.00 12.90 32578.20 96.90 376141.00 877776.00 98.82 398.00 7.62 23.44 39.26 2.18 0.94 46355.00 100.85 apr 8675.00 12.48 33626.40 99.43 382175.00 882808.00 98.95 450.86 7.39 23.77 39.43 2.04 0.93 47188.00 94.93 may 8279.00 12.02 34162.20 103.19 384158.00 893029.00 99.14 494.78 7.51 23.07 39.88 2.31 0.92 47030.00 97.45 jun 8285.00 11.55 34056.60 104.67 390563.00 894213.00 99.22 505.50 7.11 22.86 40.34 2.24 0.92 38685.00 102.49 jul 8505.00 10.65 33733.40 101.83 397187.00 901389.00 99.26 507.99 7.24 22.28 40.76 2.33 0.91 39791.00 106.08 aug 8535.00 9.58 33539.70 101.59 403544.00 905498.00 100.12 529.68 6.65 22.80 41.10 2.37 0.90 39532.00 105.31 sep 8389.00 8.58 34067.60 100.01 411696.00 911224.00 100.47 597.65 6.65 20.44 42.23 2.27 0.91 39644.00 107.04 oct 8495.00 7.96 34841.50 99.31 421295.00 926325.00 101.07 625.55 6.62 19.01 42.90 2.24 0.90 27150.00 106.85 nov 8537.00 7.58 35114.10 100.19 432230.00 944647.00 102.04 617.08 7.08 20.39 44.14 2.21 0.91 27769.00 88.41 dec 8465.00 7.14 36295.70 100.40 437942.00 955692.00 103.04 691.90 6.77 19.43 43.52 2.63 0.88 31458.00 102.96 2004 jan 8441.00 6.68 35975.40 99.72 432738.00 947277.00 103.62 759.93 8.20 23.79 42.39 2.59 0.90 29807.00 101.51 feb 8447.00 6.38 36000.70 100.59 437040.00 935745.00 103.60 761.08 8.10 23.32 42.88 2.35 0.93 30477.00 93.02 mar 8587.00 6.11 37419.20 97.51 446589.00 935247.00 103.97 735.68 7.80 23.49 43.70 2.71 0.90 43713.00 100.10 apr 8661.00 6.01 37080.70 99.11 454854.00 930831.00 104.99 783.41 7.70 22.46 44.92 2.83 0.90 45622.00 97.63 may 9210.00 6.17 36469.60 93.03 471063.00 952961.00 105.92 732.52 7.80 21.68 45.56 2.57 0.90 47039.00 100.50 jun 9415.00 6.31 34851.00 92.29 486067.00 975166.00 106.42 732.40 7.50 21.08 46.39 2.67 0.90 43500.00 102.38 jul 9168.00 6.49 34810.50 95.82 488407.00 975091.00 106.84 756.98 7.30 20.70 46.81 2.71 0.83 40993.00 107.94 aug 9328.00 6.54 34821.90 93.01 505243.00 980223.00 106.93 754.70 6.70 20.72 47.87 2.80 0.86 40978.00 108.90 sep 9170.00 6.61 34802.20 94.77 513223.00 986806.00 106.95 820.13 6.90 20.78 48.13 2.96 0.84 43041.00 112.08 oct 9090.00 6.65 35353.20 93.89 525648.00 995935.00 107.55 860.49 6.70 20.44 49.13 2.91 0.85 43800.00 116.15 nov 9018.00 6.66 35927.40 93.57 531689.00 1000338.0 108.51 977.77 6.60 19.77 49.49 3.03 0.81 44971.00 93.35 dec 9290.00 6.71 36320.40 91.42 553548.00 1033527.0 109.63 1000.23 5.75 19.42 49.95 3.46 0.77 49327.00 106.39 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan ISP IMV IBC IBV ER i3mo IR REER DC M2 CPI EQ NPL CAR LDR ROA OCOR FL IPI Periode Rp miliar Miliar Rp Miliar Rp Miliar Rp 2005 jan 9165.00 6.71 36092.20 94.68 549017.00 1015874.0 111.20 1045.44 5.90 22.35 49.50 3.42 0.75 47377.00 103.54 feb 9260.00 6.74 36542.10 92.78 560753.00 1012144.0 111.01 1073.83 6.00 22.09 50.52 3.35 0.81 47667.00 102.91 mar 9480.00 6.93 36030.10 93.45 576380.00 1020693.0 113.05 1080.17 5.60 21.75 51.22 3.41 0.81 54603.00 107.30 apr 9570.00 6.87 36428.80 91.72 587805.00 1044253.0 113.52 1029.61 5.70 21.21 51.31 3.52 0.81 55087.00 101.05 may 9495.00 7.03 34612.60 93.89 609330.00 1046192.0 113.75 1088.17 7.30 20.03 52.90 3.33 0.81 62349.00 105.23 jun 9713.00 7.19 33865.40 93.40 622602.00 1073746.0 114.32 1122.38 7.90 19.51 53.09 2.20 0.89 57484.00 105.67 jul 9819.00 7.41 32208.38 93.35 635959.00 1088376.0 115.21 1182.30 8.50 18.45 53.85 2.25 0.95 56152.00 107.07 aug 10240.00 7.71 31180.30 89.68 659571.00 1115874.0 115.84 1050.09 8.90 18.94 54.48 2.18 0.89 60463.00 110.71 sep 10310.00 8.51 30318.00 90.22 673242.00 1150451.0 116.64 1079.28 8.80 19.43 54.16 1.97 0.90 62185.00 112.52 oct 10090.00 9.38 32646.09 100.54 678351.00 1165741.0 126.79 1066.22 8.40 19.44 54.76 2.01 0.91 62188.00 119.41 nov 10035.00 10.72 33239.80 103.95 679466.00 1168267.0 128.45 1096.64 8.70 19.69 54.07 2.15 0.91 58671.00 104.36 dec 9830.00 11.75 34723.69 104.62 689669.00 1203215.0 128.39 1162.64 8.30 19.30 59.66 2.55 0.90 55791.00 108.61 Lampiran 2. Grafik Fluktuasi Siklikal A. Grafik Fluktuasi Siklikal Variabel ISP -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Nilai Tukar IER -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Suku Bunga Deposito 3 Bulan II3 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Cadangan Devisa IIR -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Tekanan Spekulatif ISP

B. Grafik Fluktuasi Siklikal Variabel IBC

-.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal NPL INPL -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal CAR ICAR -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Suku Bunga Deposito 3 Bulan II3 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Kondisi Perbankan IBC Lampiran 2. Lanjutan C. Grafik Fluktuasi Siklikal IMV -.8 -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal REER IREER -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Kredit Domestik IDC -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Jumlah Uang Beredar IM2 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal IHK ICPI -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal IHSG IEQ -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Kerentanan Nilai T ukar IIMV

D. Grafik Fluktuasi Siklikal IBV

-.8 -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal LDR ILDR -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal ROA IROA -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Sikliakl OCOR IOCOR -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Utang Luar Negeri IFL -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal T ingkat Produksi IIPI -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Kredit Dom estik IDC -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Nilai T ukar IER -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Sikikal IHK ICPI -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Pergerakan Siklikal Kerentanan Perbankan IBV Lampiran 3. Grafik Conditional Standar Deviation CSD dan Threshold

A. Grafik CSD dan Threshold IMV

.0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IREER T REER .04 .08 .12 .16 .20 .24 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IDC T DC .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IM2 T M2 .06 .08 .10 .12 .14 .16 .18 .20 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_ICPI T CPI .08 .09 .10 .11 .12 .13 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IEQ T EQ .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IIMV T IMV

B. Grafik CSD dan Threshold IBV

Lampiran 4. Hasil Uji ADF pada Setiap Indikator Siklikal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_ILDR T LDR .04 .08 .12 .16 .20 .24 .28 .32 .36 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IFL T FL .04 .08 .12 .16 .20 .24 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IDC T DC 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IER T ER .06 .08 .10 .12 .14 .16 .18 .20 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_ICPI T CPI 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 CSD_IBV T IBV

A. Uji ADF untuk Setiap Indikator IMV a. IREER

Null Hypothesis: IREER has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 2 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.785495 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.482035 5 level -2.884109 10 level -2.578884 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

b. IDC

Null Hypothesis: IDC has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.20585 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481217 5 level -2.883753 10 level -2.578694 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

c. IM2

Null Hypothesis: IM2 has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 2 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.11411 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.482035 5 level -2.884109 10 level -2.578884 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

d. ICPI

Null Hypothesis: ICPI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 7 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.417978 0.0005 Test critical values: 1 level -3.484198 5 level -2.885051 10 level -2.579386 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

e. IEQ

Null Hypothesis: IEQ has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.869741 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481623 5 level -2.883930 10 level -2.578788 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Lampiran 4. Lanjutan

d. IMV

Null Hypothesis: IIMV has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.34564 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481623 5 level -2.883930 10 level -2.578788 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

B. Uji ADF untuk Setiap Indikator IBV a. ILDR

Null Hypothesis: ILDR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -14.18620 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481217 5 level -2.883753 10 level -2.578694 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

b. IROA

Null Hypothesis: IROA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 7 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.188319 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.484198 5 level -2.885051 10 level -2.579386 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

c. IOCOR

Null Hypothesis: IOCOR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 10 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.248009 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.485586 5 level -2.885654 10 level -2.579708 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

d. IFL

Null Hypothesis: IFL has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.775907 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481623 5 level -2.883930 10 level -2.578788 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Lampiran 4. Lanjutan

e. IIPI

Null Hypothesis: IIPI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 12 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.153170 0.0254 Test critical values: 1 level -3.486551 5 level -2.886074 10 level -2.579931 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

f. IDC

Null Hypothesis: IDC has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -10.20585 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481217 5 level -2.883753 10 level -2.578694 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

g. IER

Null Hypothesis: IER has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.998236 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481623 5 level -2.883930 10 level -2.578788 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

h. ICPI

Null Hypothesis: ICPI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 7 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.417978 0.0005 Test critical values: 1 level -3.484198 5 level -2.885051 10 level -2.579386 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.

i. IIBV

Null Hypothesis: IIBV has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 Automatic based on HQ, MAXLAG=12 t-Statistic Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.324941 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.481217 5 level -2.883753 10 level -2.578694 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Korelasi Silang Setiap Indikator

A. Hasil Uji Korelasi Silang Setiap Indikator IMV dengan ISP a.

IREER Date: 082706 Time: 10:55 Sample: 1995:01 2005:12 Included observations: 131 Correlations are asymptotically consistent approximations IREER,ISP-i IREER,ISP+i i lag lead . |. | . |. | 0.0780 0.0780 . | | .| . | 1 0.1611 -0.1464 . | . | .| . | 2 0.0339 -0.0752 | . | .| . | 3 -0.2134 -0.0737 .| . | | . | 4 -0.1000 -0.1867 . | . | | . | 5 0.0234 -0.4275 . | | | . | 6 0.2689 -0.1538 . |. | . | . | 7 0.1010 -0.0266 . |. | . | . | 8 0.1342 0.0041 . | . | | . | 9 -0.0142 -0.3087 . | . | | . | 10 -0.0362 -0.2412 . |. | .| . | 11 0.0876 -0.0712 . | | .| . | 12 0.3114 -0.0471 b. IDC Date: 082106 Time: 11:54 Sample: 1995:01 2005:12 Included observations: 131 Correlations are asymptotically consistent approximations IDC,IBC-i IDC,IBC+i i lag lead . |. | . |. | 0.1469 0.1469 .| . | . | . | 1 -0.0451 0.0332 . | . | | . | 2 -0.0403 -0.1757 .| . | . | . | 3 -0.0496 0.0024 | . | . | | 4 -0.1599 0.2704 | . | . | | 5 -0.2475 0.2677 | . | . |. | 6 -0.3366 0.1123 | . | . |. | 7 -0.1715 0.0717 .| . | . | | 8 -0.0650 0.1598 .| . | . | | 9 -0.1441 0.2091 | . | .| . | 10 -0.2414 -0.0691 | . | . | | 11 -0.1758 0.2676 | . | . | | 12 -0.2344 0.3395 c. IM2 Date: 082706 Time: 10:58 Sample: 1995:01 2005:12 Included observations: 131 Correlations are asymptotically consistent approximations IM2,ISP-i IM2,ISP+i i lag lead . |. | . |. | 0.1369 0.1369 . |. | | . | 1 0.1460 -0.1872 . | . | .| . | 2 0.0039 -0.1011 | . | .| . | 3 -0.2396 -0.0976 . | . | | . | 4 -0.0375 -0.2077 . | . | | . | 5 -0.0118 -0.3489 . | | . | . | 6 0.2186 -0.0316 . |. | . |. | 7 0.0645 0.0664 . |. | . |. | 8 0.0902 0.0747 .| . | | . | 9 -0.0753 -0.2195 .| . | | . | 10 -0.0807 -0.1484 . |. | .| . | 11 0.0557 -0.0673 . | | . | . | 12 0.3201 0.0081 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan

d. ICPI

Date: 082706 Time: 11:00 Sample: 1995:01 2005:12 Included observations: 131 Correlations are asymptotically consistent approximations ICPI,ISP-i ICPI,ISP+i i lag lead . | | . | | 0.3242 0.3242 . | | . | | 1 0.3063 0.4048 . | | . | | 2 0.2620 0.3515 . | | . | | 3 0.2869 0.3343 . | | . | | 4 0.3294 0.2815 . | | . |. | 5 0.3950 0.0685 . | | .| . | 6 0.3395 -0.0857 . | | .| . | 7 0.1784 -0.0965 . |. | . | . | 8 0.0694 0.0036 . | . | | . | 9 0.0446 -0.2075 . | . | | . | 10 0.0425 -0.4276 . |. | | . | 11 0.0776 -0.4975 . | . | | . | 12 -0.0405 -0.5402 e. IEQ Date: 082706 Time: 11:01 Sample: 1995:01 2005:12 Included observations: 131 Correlations are asymptotically consistent approximations IEQ,ISP-i IEQ,ISP+i i lag lead | . | | . | -0.2112 -0.2112 .| . | | . | 1 -0.0722 -0.3686 | . | | . | 2 -0.3461 -0.3706 | . | .| . | 3 -0.2447 -0.1192 .| . | .| . | 4 -0.0588 -0.0839 . | . | . | . | 5 0.0429 0.0183 . | . | . | . | 6 -0.0075 -0.0153 . |. | . | . | 7 0.0771 -0.0307 . |. | . | . | 8 0.1192 0.0016 . |. | . | | 9 0.0780 0.1725 . |. | . | . | 10 0.0628 -0.0071 . | . | . | . | 11 0.0283 -0.0355 . | . | . |. | 12 -0.0146 0.0984

f. IMV

Date: 082706 Time: 11:02 Sample: 1995:01 2005:12 Included observations: 131 Correlations are asymptotically consistent approximations IIMV,ISP-i IIMV,ISP+i i lag lead . | | . | | 0.1981 0.1981 . | | .| . | 1 0.3245 -0.1105 . | . | .| . | 2 0.0434 -0.0532 .| . | . |. | 3 -0.0813 0.0984 . |. | . |. | 4 0.1518 0.0576 . | | .| . | 5 0.1637 -0.1456 . | | .| . | 6 0.2436 -0.0921 . |. | . | . | 7 0.1497 -0.0310 . |. | . | . | 8 0.1519 0.0279 .| . | | . | 9 -0.0714 -0.2103 .| . | | . | 10 -0.0586 -0.3528 . |. | | . | 11 0.0586 -0.2745 . |. | | . | 12 0.1532 -0.1765 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan