Laos Myamar Vietnam KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 6.1. Kesimpulan

95

e. Filipina Roots of Characteristic Polynomial

Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 3 Date: 061911 Time: 17:25 Root Modulus 0.993906 - 0.015444i 0.994026 0.993906 + 0.015444i 0.994026 -0.765256 - 0.054153i 0.767170 -0.765256 + 0.054153i 0.767170 0.617786 - 0.430397i 0.752929 0.617786 + 0.430397i 0.752929 -0.100860 - 0.731581i 0.738501 -0.100860 + 0.731581i 0.738501 0.506831 0.506831 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition.

f. Thailand Roots of Characteristic Polynomial

Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 2 Date: 061911 Time: 18:34 Root Modulus 0.895121 0.895121 0.720580 - 0.271285i 0.769956 0.720580 + 0.271285i 0.769956 0.041789 - 0.456269i 0.458179 0.041789 + 0.456269i 0.458179 -0.208619 0.208619 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition.

g. Kamboja

Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 2 Date: 061911 Time: 19:24 Root Modulus 0.998443 0.998443 0.631609 - 0.283331i 0.692247 0.631609 + 0.283331i 0.692247 -0.153049 - 0.439891i 0.465756 -0.153049 + 0.439891i 0.465756 0.195804 0.195804 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition.

h. Laos

Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 6 Date: 061911 Time: 20:38 96 Root Modulus 0.880137 - 0.320630i 0.936721 0.880137 + 0.320630i 0.936721 0.934112 - 0.067837i 0.936572 0.934112 + 0.067837i 0.936572 0.850615 0.850615 0.082425 + 0.831548i 0.835623 0.082425 - 0.831548i 0.835623 -0.488796 - 0.668143i 0.827851 -0.488796 + 0.668143i 0.827851 0.164644 + 0.806802i 0.823430 0.164644 - 0.806802i 0.823430 -0.419449 - 0.680046i 0.799000 -0.419449 + 0.680046i 0.799000 0.571821 + 0.535684i 0.783541 0.571821 - 0.535684i 0.783541 -0.725840 - 0.170530i 0.745603 -0.725840 + 0.170530i 0.745603 0.640319 0.640319 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition.

i. Myamar

Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Endogenous variables: BD CA ER Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 4 Date: 061911 Time: 21:11 Root Modulus 0.978185 - 0.086659i 0.982016 0.978185 + 0.086659i 0.982016 0.811077 - 0.411951i 0.909697 0.811077 + 0.411951i 0.909697 0.703841 - 0.550929i 0.893820 0.703841 + 0.550929i 0.893820 0.739666 0.739666 0.646827 0.646827 -0.081463 - 0.588530i 0.594141 -0.081463 + 0.588530i 0.594141 0.285841 - 0.117473i 0.309039 0.285841 + 0.117473i 0.309039 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition.

j. Vietnam

Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 4 Date: 062111 Time: 17:55 Root Modulus 0.998445 0.998445 0.749097 - 0.539332i 0.923052 0.749097 + 0.539332i 0.923052 0.889183 0.889183 0.826518 - 0.317665i 0.885462 0.826518 + 0.317665i 0.885462 0.632845 - 0.492185i 0.801710 0.632845 + 0.492185i 0.801710 97 0.642950 0.642950 0.566510 - 0.164504i 0.589911 0.566510 + 0.164504i 0.589911 0.130777 0.130777 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition. LAMPIRAN 4. UJI KOINTEGRASI a. Brunei Darussalam Date: 061911 Time: 15:14 Sample adjusted: 1982 2010 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Trend assumption: No deterministic trend restricted constant Series: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Lags interval in first differences: 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Trace Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.545231 29.71691 35.19275 0.1728 At most 1 0.148962 6.865936 20.26184 0.9055 At most 2 0.072681 2.188280 9.164546 0.7400 Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Maximum Eigenvalue Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.545231 22.85097 22.29962 0.0419 At most 1 0.148962 4.677656 15.89210 0.9145 At most 2 0.072681 2.188280 9.164546 0.7400 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values 98 Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C -19.27311 14.35854 -10.82886 5.545359 -1.993155 5.344998 22.05288 -4.899828 -2.150881 -0.880234 15.92304 -1.219797 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y 0.056765 -0.035218 -0.018116 DCA_Y 0.049353 -0.040213 -0.003907 DER_Y -0.006634 -0.004520 -0.003281 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 151.3200 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 -0.745004 0.561864 -0.287725 0.04358 0.27552 0.05706 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -1.094030 0.48035 DCA_Y -0.951195 0.44114 DER_Y 0.127851 0.06917 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 153.6588 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 0.000000 5.034250 -1.344084 2.55364 0.45932 0.000000 1.000000 6.003170 -1.417923 3.39618 0.61086 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -1.023835 0.626816 0.46323 0.36629 DCA_Y -0.871043 0.493703 0.41521 0.32832 DER_Y 0.136861 -0.119411 0.06730 0.05321

b. Singapura