Indonesia KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 6.1. Kesimpulan

99 MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Maximum Eigenvalue Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.463296 18.04697 22.29962 0.1769 At most 1 0.326932 11.48137 15.89210 0.2182 At most 2 0.113573 3.496143 9.164546 0.4923 Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C -6.532868 -19.35292 -83.17102 5.489666 12.14192 26.38000 215.7584 -7.210312 23.00538 -18.60512 -98.39746 2.507196 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y -0.005543 -0.014757 -0.009862 DCA_Y 0.013188 -0.018934 0.001914 DER_Y -0.000847 -0.000318 0.000308 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 261.0485 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 2.962393 12.73116 -0.840315 1.27162 8.22309 0.29924 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y 0.036209 0.05157 DCA_Y -0.086158 0.04765 DER_Y 0.005535 0.00184 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 266.7892 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 0.000000 31.63085 0.084233 11.4970 0.22646 0.000000 1.000000 -6.379870 -0.312095 4.65576 0.09171 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.142969 -0.282024 0.10095 0.23955 DCA_Y -0.316053 -0.754713 0.08596 0.20398 DER_Y 0.001669 0.007997 0.00378 0.00896

c. Indonesia

100 Date: 061911 Time: 16:36 Sample adjusted: 1982 2010 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Trend assumption: No deterministic trend restricted constant Series: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Lags interval in first differences: 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Trace Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.746671 58.96178 35.19275 0.0000 At most 1 0.436894 19.14291 20.26184 0.0707 At most 2 0.082234 2.488586 9.164546 0.6798 Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Maximum Eigenvalue Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.746671 39.81887 22.29962 0.0001 At most 1 0.436894 16.65432 15.89210 0.0379 At most 2 0.082234 2.488586 9.164546 0.6798 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 175.3575 165.4515 -623.4496 1.004641 216.1316 -78.18834 2356.477 -3.623814 55.57768 -16.26187 -145.2400 1.246260 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y -0.000857 -0.002603 -0.002282 DCA_Y -0.007443 0.004804 0.000832 DER_Y -4.93E-05 -0.000153 0.000129 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 392.1621 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 0.943510 -3.555306 0.005729 0.11995 1.35043 0.00231 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.150232 0.31190 DCA_Y -1.305205 0.31373 DER_Y -0.008638 0.01777 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 400.4893 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 0.000000 6.895791 -0.010532 0.65837 0.00161 101 0.000000 1.000000 -11.07683 0.017235 0.80235 0.00196 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.712882 0.061800 0.47335 0.31123 DCA_Y -0.267011 -1.607053 0.42007 0.27619 DER_Y -0.041802 0.003847 0.02689 0.01768

d. Malaysia