Singapura Indonesia Malaysia Filipina

LAMPIRAN 2. UJI LAG OPTIMUM a. Brunei Darussalam VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Date: 061911 Time: 15:09 Sample: 1980 2010 Included observations: 29 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 85.09244 NA 6.98e-07 -5.661548 -5.520104 -5.617249 1 145.4485 104.0621 2.03e-08 -9.203342 -8.637565 -9.026148 2 154.7529 14.11712 2.04e-08 -9.224340 -8.234229 -8.914250 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion Lag Adj-R square 1 0.642018 2 0.624989

b. Singapura

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Date: 061911 Time: 16:04 Sample: 1980 2010 Included observations: 29 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 190.7911 NA 4.76e-10 -12.95111 -12.80967 -12.90681 1 263.7256 125.7491 5.83e-12 -17.36038 -16.79461 -17.18319 2 268.5373 7.300547 7.96e-12 -17.07154 -16.08143 -16.76145 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

c. Indonesia

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Date: 061911 Time: 16:30 Sample: 1980 2010 Included observations: 29 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 352.7891 NA 6.70e-15 -24.12338 -23.98194 -24.07909 1 389.8419 63.88415 9.73e-16 -26.05806 -25.49228 -25.88087 2 401.7336 18.04258 8.16e-16 -26.25749 -25.26738 -25.94740 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion Lag Adj-R square 1 0.323497 2 0.266540

d. Malaysia

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Date: 061911 Time: 17:04 Sample: 1980 2010 Included observations: 29 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 434.0269 NA 2.47e-17 -29.72599 -29.58455 -29.68169 1 508.1492 127.7971 2.78e-19 -34.21719 -33.65141 -34.03999 2 524.6887 25.09429 1.69e-19 -34.73715 -33.74704 -34.42706 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

e. Filipina

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Date: 061911 Time: 17:23 Sample: 1991Q1 2010Q4 Included observations: 73 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ -59.00534 NA 0.001097 1.698776 1.792905 1.736288 1 84.26120 270.8326 2.77e-05 -1.979759 -1.603245 -1.829712 2 97.22017 23.43266 2.49e-05 -2.088224 -1.429325 -1.825641 3 123.2227 44.88103 1.57e-05 -2.554046 -1.612761 -2.178928 4 134.2904 18.19354 1.49e-05 -2.610696 -1.387026 -2.123043 5 161.4190 42.36521 9.17e-06 -3.107370 -1.601315 -2.507181 6 166.9191 8.137174 1.02e-05 -3.011483 -1.223042 -2.298759 7 172.5698 7.895452 1.15e-05 -2.919721 -0.848895 -2.094461 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion Lag Adj-R square 3 0.945094 5 0.961713

f. Thailand