Kamboja Laos KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 6.1. Kesimpulan

104 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y TREND81 58.98039 -6.249754 554.4792 0.279909 -88.29346 -36.42519 -385.1330 0.032019 13.12077 9.512272 -331.2432 -0.141716 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y -0.007529 -0.002332 -0.006672 DCA_Y 0.039914 0.012512 -0.004273 DER_Y -0.000282 0.000773 0.000502 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 279.6934 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y TREND81 1.000000 -0.105963 9.401076 0.004746 0.06794 1.39295 0.00101 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.444072 0.20672 DCA_Y 2.354143 0.47255 DER_Y -0.016637 0.02305 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 285.0838 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y TREND81 1.000000 0.000000 8.371278 0.003702 0.83737 0.00048 0.000000 1.000000 -9.718443 -0.009852 3.36266 0.00192 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.238152 0.132007 0.36801 0.12809 DCA_Y 1.249398 -0.705212 0.79716 0.27746 DER_Y -0.084854 -0.026380 0.03722 0.01296

g. Kamboja

Date: 061911 Time: 19:25 Sample adjusted: 1994Q4 2010Q4 Included observations: 65 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Lags interval in first differences: 1 to 2 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Trace Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.487329 58.99350 29.79707 0.0000 At most 1 0.211656 15.56558 15.49471 0.0488 105 At most 2 0.001648 0.107240 3.841466 0.7433 Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Maximum Eigenvalue Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.487329 43.42792 21.13162 0.0000 At most 1 0.211656 15.45834 14.26460 0.0322 At most 2 0.001648 0.107240 3.841466 0.7433 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y 8.804546 -48.90533 7.587121 -96.90834 9.340082 3.290234 11.30229 -1.936390 17.46225 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y -0.000749 0.003204 -4.84E-05 DCA_Y 0.035237 0.009321 -6.82E-05 DER_Y 0.000296 -0.001127 -0.000336 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 566.4350 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y 1.000000 -5.554554 0.861728 0.73849 0.29800 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.006595 0.00829 DCA_Y 0.310249 0.04836 DER_Y 0.002606 0.01008 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 574.1642 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y 1.000000 0.000000 -0.049768 0.04746 0.000000 1.000000 -0.164099 0.05044 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.317135 0.066565 0.08178 0.04184 DCA_Y -0.593058 -1.636232 0.52079 0.26647 DER_Y 0.111870 -0.025006 0.11044 0.05651

h. Laos

106 Date: 061911 Time: 20:39 Sample adjusted: 8 68 Included observations: 61 after adjustments Trend assumption: Quadratic deterministic trend Series: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Lags interval in first differences: 1 to 6 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Trace Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.311337 36.77157 35.01090 0.0321 At most 1 0.175798 14.01837 18.39771 0.1842 At most 2 0.035813 2.224657 3.841466 0.1358 Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Maximum Eigenvalue Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.311337 22.75320 24.25202 0.0779 At most 1 0.175798 11.79371 17.14769 0.2537 At most 2 0.035813 2.224657 3.841466 0.1358 Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y 274.2679 15.08377 27539.20 -0.728068 62.39625 7409.148 51.31222 -16.06612 -4615.956 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y -0.003191 -0.002401 -0.000218 DCA_Y 0.003003 -0.001818 -0.000762 DER_Y -1.63E-06 -1.02E-06 4.72E-06 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 994.9894 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y 1.000000 0.054996 100.4099 0.05584 10.4344 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.875150 0.32635 DCA_Y 0.823747 0.32149 DER_Y -0.000447 0.00109 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 1000.886 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y 1.000000 0.000000 93.81918 107 6.42366 0.000000 1.000000 119.8382 38.7762 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.873402 -0.197929 0.30930 0.07239 DCA_Y 0.825070 -0.068126 0.31167 0.07295 DER_Y -0.000446 -8.85E-05 0.00109 0.00026

i. Myanmar