Myanmar Vietnam Singapura KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 6.1. Kesimpulan

4 551.3471 7.030673 1.36e-11 -16.52732 -15.18929 -16.00198 5 567.8523 24.49166 1.08e-11 -16.76943 -15.12262 -16.12285 6 575.3956 10.46323 1.17e-11 -16.72244 -14.76685 -15.95462 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion Lag Adj-R square 1 0.739295 2 0.749126 5 0.775168

h. Laos

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Date: 061911 Time: 20:36 Sample: 1 68 Included observations: 62 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 741.4044 NA 9.08e-15 -23.81950 -23.71657 -23.77908 1 907.7638 311.2531 5.67e-17 -28.89561 -28.48390 -28.73396 2 935.0950 48.49089 3.15e-17 -29.48694 -28.76646 -29.20406 3 969.7380 58.11072 1.38e-17 -30.31413 -29.28487 -29.91001 4 984.0801 22.66990 1.18e-17 -30.48646 -29.14842 -29.96111 5 994.1067 14.87809 1.16e-17 -30.51957 -28.87276 -29.87299 6 1006.458 17.13192 1.07e-17 -30.62766 -28.67207 -29.85985 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion Lag Adj-R square 3 0.709164 4 0.706539 6 0.727959

i. Myanmar

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Date: 062111 Time: 17:53 Sample: 1991Q1 2010Q4 Included observations: 76 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 419.6701 NA 3.47e-09 -10.96500 -10.87300 -10.92823 1 833.6629 784.4075 8.17e-14 -21.62271 -21.25470 -21.47563 2 1022.939 343.6852 7.12e-16 -26.36681 -25.72279 -26.10943 3 1175.207 264.4656 1.65e-17 -30.13702 -29.21700 -29.76934 4 1187.181 19.85240 1.53e-17 -30.21530 -29.01927 -29.73731 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion Lag Adj-R square 3 0.998751 4 0.998852

j. Vietnam

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: BD CA ER Exogenous variables: C Date: 061911 Time: 21:41 Sample: 1991Q1 2010Q4 Included observations: 76 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ -1081.607 NA 4.99e+08 28.54228 28.63429 28.57905 1 -710.5745 703.0084 36380.21 19.01512 19.38313 19.16219 2 -560.6433 272.2435 892.7828 15.30640 15.95042 15.56378 3 -468.6908 159.7071 100.9287 13.12344 14.04347 13.49113 4 -447.8499 34.55203 74.32126 12.81184 14.00787 13.28983 indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic each test at 5 level FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion 94 LAMPIRAN 3. UJI STABILITAS VAR a. Brunei Darussalam Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 1 Date: 061911 Time: 15:13 Root Modulus 0.827731 0.827731 0.783862 0.783862 0.460482 0.460482 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition.

b. Singapura

Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Endogenous variables: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 1 Date: 061911 Time: 16:05 Root Modulus 0.921335 0.921335 0.508791 0.508791 0.243447 0.243447 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition.

c. Indonesia Roots of Characteristic Polynomial