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Singapura KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 6.1. Kesimpulan

98 Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C -19.27311 14.35854 -10.82886 5.545359 -1.993155 5.344998 22.05288 -4.899828 -2.150881 -0.880234 15.92304 -1.219797 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y 0.056765 -0.035218 -0.018116 DCA_Y 0.049353 -0.040213 -0.003907 DER_Y -0.006634 -0.004520 -0.003281 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 151.3200 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 -0.745004 0.561864 -0.287725 0.04358 0.27552 0.05706 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -1.094030 0.48035 DCA_Y -0.951195 0.44114 DER_Y 0.127851 0.06917 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 153.6588 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 0.000000 5.034250 -1.344084 2.55364 0.45932 0.000000 1.000000 6.003170 -1.417923 3.39618 0.61086 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -1.023835 0.626816 0.46323 0.36629 DCA_Y -0.871043 0.493703 0.41521 0.32832 DER_Y 0.136861 -0.119411 0.06730 0.05321

b. Singapura

Date: 061911 Time: 23:16 Sample adjusted: 1982 2010 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Trend assumption: No deterministic trend restricted constant Series: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y Lags interval in first differences: 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Trace Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.463296 33.02448 35.19275 0.0841 At most 1 0.326932 14.97751 20.26184 0.2276 At most 2 0.113573 3.496143 9.164546 0.4923 Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level 99 MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Maximum Eigenvalue Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.463296 18.04697 22.29962 0.1769 At most 1 0.326932 11.48137 15.89210 0.2182 At most 2 0.113573 3.496143 9.164546 0.4923 Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients normalized by bS11b=I: BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C -6.532868 -19.35292 -83.17102 5.489666 12.14192 26.38000 215.7584 -7.210312 23.00538 -18.60512 -98.39746 2.507196 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients alpha: DBD_Y -0.005543 -0.014757 -0.009862 DCA_Y 0.013188 -0.018934 0.001914 DER_Y -0.000847 -0.000318 0.000308 1 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 261.0485 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 2.962393 12.73116 -0.840315 1.27162 8.22309 0.29924 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y 0.036209 0.05157 DCA_Y -0.086158 0.04765 DER_Y 0.005535 0.00184 2 Cointegrating Equations: Log likelihood 266.7892 Normalized cointegrating coefficients standard error in parentheses BD_Y CA_Y ER_Y C 1.000000 0.000000 31.63085 0.084233 11.4970 0.22646 0.000000 1.000000 -6.379870 -0.312095 4.65576 0.09171 Adjustment coefficients standard error in parentheses DBD_Y -0.142969 -0.282024 0.10095 0.23955 DCA_Y -0.316053 -0.754713 0.08596 0.20398 DER_Y 0.001669 0.007997 0.00378 0.00896

c. Indonesia

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