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Lampiran 1. Data Dasar Bulanan Kondisi Perberasan Indonesia 2004 - 2008
Bulan TPPS
TPPJ TPBN
TPPK TPSW
TPPL TPPI
ARLS ARLJ
ALBN ARLK ALSW
AREA
Jan-04 Feb-04
Mar-04 Apr-04
May-04 Jun-04
Jul-04 Aug-04
Sep-04 Oct-04
Nov-04 Dec-04
Jan-05 Feb-05
Feb-04 1,607,843
4,095,840 214,530
445,497 250,292
16,748 6,630,750
457,708 912,018
59,274 167,294
45,877 1,653,579
Mar-04 2,074,918
5,679,165 643,561
599,569 595,502
11,434 9,604,149
529,792 1,092,128
168,276 188,794
135,582 2,118,685
Apr-04 1,559,958
3,883,120 560,866
444,252 808,643
15,255 7,272,095
323,369 615,098
114,671 162,831
179,082 1,395,186
May-04 1,031,349
2,174,082 264,593
288,227 776,111
23,233 4,557,595
234,527 424,233
72,246 74,979
132,538 953,867
Jun-04 792,909
2,408,760 194,215
184,078 415,951
17,440 4,013,352
188,149 540,809
60,048 38,624
74,896 911,685
Jul-04 789,397
3,284,533 309,739
218,745 242,467
7,278 4,852,159
214,865 598,237
47,234 64,033
70,506 994,447
Aug-04 963,131
2,692,410 170,825
462,696 438,718
8,403 4,736,182
239,613 469,658
22,162 176,028
142,024 1,041,656
Sep-04 1,122,341
1,584,571 96,177
342,083 593,382
7,375 3,745,929
299,841 276,100
23,447 104,857
172,778 875,352
Oct-04 875,704
1,200,638 94,116
148,993 339,417
5,485 2,664,354
204,210 217,929
23,151 44,774
107,525 607,276
Nov-04 509,204
801,268 107,416
109,299 265,607
11,624 1,804,419
126,668 143,196
23,401 33,258
75,218 407,305
Dec-04 553,689
672,416 77,889
220,791 252,740
12,390 1,789,915
150,425 121,253
19,840 55,534
55,209 400,781
Jan-05 786,588
738,024 48,055
262,021 134,853
16,324 1,985,865
202,278 139433
10,044 94,586
30,227 481,469
Feb-05 1,219,290
2,498,388 95,479
464,640 91,957
11,184 4,380,938
325,476 496,996
21,271 177,669
21,827 1,046,693
Mar-05 1,940,852
6,240,911 568,527
499,897 408,659
17,339 9,676,185
497,478 1,218,530
130,642 180,469
91,299 2,123,540
Apr-05 1,708,598
4,995,354 631,585
458,942 972,129
16,597 8,783,205
408,221 941,610
152,210 140,387
209,752 1,857,444
May-05 995,153
2,058,252 340,228
322,050 646,114
36,029 4,397,826
1,433,453 2,796,569
314,167 593,111
353,105 978,189
Jun-05 802,310
2,481,682 164,836
136,660 373,584
20,256 3,979,328
241,385 395,495
87,826 94,633
147,985 835,486
Jul-05 850,566
3,171,433 188,481
191,087 296,515
12,441 4,710,523
192,856 473,855
39,253 37,667
86,018 976,440
Aug-05 1,062,587
2,859,289 166,065
556,475 754,237
14,926 5,413,579
205,945 603,051
40,994 55,498
67,298 1,172,186
Sep-05 1,208,234
1,787,078 97,092
347,987 861,320
23,079 4,324,790
254,961 544,084
35,972 166,634
165,898 955,758
Oct-05 918,909
1,369,618 113,311
203,416 308,493
1,718 2,915,465
895,147 2,016,485
204,045 354,432
467,199 631,760
Nov-05 552,244
898,750 112,566
68,386 235,924
2,897 1,870,767
292,616 338,823
20,085 102,252
195,571 399,165
Dec-05 629,702
665,613 89,612
102,766 217,027
7,906 1,712,626
219,677 259,448
24,290 56,605
71,175 380,929
Jan-06 738,801
933,447 68,344
234,194 193,739
9,827 2,178,352
138,399 100,503
14,262 72,186
27,758 354,860
Feb-06 1,385,590
3,681,944 179,918
542,939 211,713
11,725 6,013,829
245,729 200,355
17,338 164,091
42,077 672,921
Mar-06 1,889,742
6,452,056 653,161
613,131 684,749
41,875 10,334,716
441,244 754,667
56,274 200,060
98,865 1,557,453
Apr-06 1,561,776
3,905,130 642,852
408,379 847,694
32,419 7,398,251
488,605 1,186,953
155,994 145,181
179,415 2,162,797
May-06 873,556
2,051,594 327,186
351,966 600,942
17,839 4,223,084
311,272 615,472
115,125 118,251
171,195 1,343,771
Jun-06 777,262
2,723,047 178,545
155,806 365,493
14,992 4,215,145
184,137 485,985
66,571 69,417
107,333 919,515
Jul-06 727,912
3,461,830 251,399
355,716 307,599
10,544 5,115,002
180,783 572,599
46,861 54,091
76,567 935,000
Aug-06 1,089,493
2,559,641 163,385
499,974 692,845
19,563 5,024,903
271,137 595,798
49,156 154,763
201,056 1,277,272
Sep-06 1,320,336
1,636,061 132,657
289,159 774,801
17,341 4,170,355
333,744 428,329
31,706 150,823
142,055 1,088,484
Oct-06 798,188
1,151,880 97,808
128,901 333,595
9,120 2,519,492
219,615 247,303
22,042 63,654
77,521 634,202
Nov-06 439,372
820,917 112,830
128,859 237,094
8,072 1,757,144
139,512 186,417
23,630 36,447
72,574 463,216
Dec-06 601,202
583,093 97,343
68,359 143,551
11,122 1,504,670
132,298 127,940
25,599 23,480
64,872 376,939
Jan-07 564,166
576,181 71,412
216,879 131,389
6,361 1,566,388
142,640 103,583
14,699 74,398
28,609 365,735
Feb-07 1,004,309
1,126,581 89,926
453,646 195,494
12,263 2,882,219
253,260 206,495
17,869 169,120
43,366 693,543
Mar-07 1,829,010
4,136,607 276,596
579,257 474,487
23,674 7,319,631
454,766 777,795
57,999 206,191
101,895 1,605,183
Apr-07 2,064,334
6,449,775 665,832
478,279 860,762
24,554 10,543,536
503,579 1,223,328
160,775 149,630
184,913 2,229,078
May-07 1,373,416
3,361,441 485,569
419,725 798,714
44,876 6,483,741
320,811 634,334
118,653 121,875
176,441 1,384,952
Jun-07 812,067
2,665,583 295,219
259,451 492,092
21,924 4,546,336
189,780 500,879
68,611 71,544
110,622 947,694
Jul-07 795,578
3,167,519 217,198
199,088 353,969
15,303 4,748,655
186,323 590,147
48,297 55,749
78,913 963,654
Aug-07 1,201,569
3,316,335 242,293
555,424 969,192
20,399 6,305,212
279,446 614,057
50,662 159,506
207,218 1,316,415
Sep-07 1,517,863
2,444,261 166,131
617,160 657,174
6,156 5,408,745
343,972 441,456
32,678 155,445
146,408 1,121,842
Oct-07 991,720
1,414,291 116,158
275,971 358,651
14,551 3,171,342
226,345 254,882
22,718 65,605
79,897 653,638
Nov-07 631,138
1,072,451 121,495
160,962 333,556
16,155 2,335,757
143,787 192,130
24,354 37,564
74,798 477,412
Dec-07 585,520
735,314 123,921
93,259 298,530
9,329 1,845,873
136,352 131,861
26,384 24,200
66,860 388,491
Jan-08 567,541
613,820 76,597
225,425 143,393
7,388 1,634,164
162,444 216,062
14,894 75,387
28,989 501,038
Feb-08 1,006,168
1,199,613 96,805
467,372 216,336
15,150 3,001,444
256,584 376,409
18,107 171,369
43,943 872,007
Mar-08 1,866,299
4,421,907 304,500
588,401 529,643
29,174 7,739,924
460,794 717,801
58,770 208,933
103,250 1,559,081
Apr-08 2,106,093
6,867,760 748,781
479,226 958,147
26,737 11,186,744
510,281 963,942
162,913 151,620
187,372 1,983,084
May-08 1,392,545
3,556,718 542,851
421,659 881,887
48,740 6,844,400
325,071 588,073
120,231 123,495
178,787 1,341,114
Jun-08 821,574
2,837,110 328,617
260,995 535,959
24,868 4,809,123
192,271 458,177
69,523 72,495
112,093 909,249
Jul-08 810,299
3,393,507 241,955
200,220 384,843
17,860 5,048,684
188,774 481,975
48,939 56,490
79,962 860,324
Aug-08 1,225,746
3,486,623 268,319
553,176 1,081,336
24,654 6,639,854
283,138 632,507
51,336 161,627
209,973 1,345,345
Sep-08 1,555,959
2,565,312 177,532
616,122 735,600
6,779 5,657,304
348,520 523,414
33,112 157,512
148,355 1,214,652
Oct-08 1,010,175
1,498,671 122,331
277,153 396,435
16,269 3,321,034
229,353 279,561
23,020 66,477
80,959 683,944
Nov-08 632,962
1,128,412 128,765
162,205 364,063
18,105 2,434,512
120,976 102,802
51,516 31,695
135,594 528,020
Dec-08 590,873
774,755 133,589
96,591 327,621
10,437 1,933,866
138,100 247,311
26,735 24,522
67,749 508,302
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
Bulan PDVS PDVJ
PVBN PDVK PVSW PRDV TPBI
PDPP IMPR
PIMP
Jan-04 3.602
4.552 4.608
2.612 4.19
3.962 1,527,903
1,230 35
2,636 Feb-04
3.513 4.491
3.619 2.663
5.46 4.010
4,190,634 1,230
20,645 2,658
Mar-04 3.916
5.200 3.824
3.176 4.39
4.533 6,069,822
1,230 16,369
2,931 Apr-04
4.824 6.313
4.891 2.728
4.52 5.212
4,595,964 1,230
34,095 2,995
May-04 4.398
5.125 3.662
3.844 5.86
4.778 2,880,400
1,230 30,409
3,096 Jun-04
4.214 4.454
3.234 4.766
5.55 4.402
2,536,439 1,230
10,879 3,126
Jul-04 3.674
5.490 6.558
3.416 3.44
4.879 3,066,564
1,230 15,879
3,119 Aug-04
4.020 5.733
7.708 2.629
3.09 4.547
2,993,267 1,230
13,685 3,190
Sep-04 3.743
5.739 4.102
3.262 3.43
4.279 2,367,427
1,230 9,400
3,151 Oct-04
4.288 5.509
4.065 3.328
3.16 4.387
1,683,872 1,230
3,671 3,169
Nov-04 4.020
5.596 4.590
3.286 3.53
4.430 1,140,393
1,230 4,804
3,279 Dec-04
3.681 5.546
3.926 3.976
4.58 4.466
1,131,226 1,230
31,567 3,549
Jan-05 3.889
5.293 4.784
2.770 4.46
4.125 1,255,067
1,230 4,410
3,684 Feb-05
3.746 5.027
4.489 2.615
4.21 4.186
2,768,753 1,230
12,757 3,718
Mar-05 3.901
5.122 4.352
2.770 4.48
4.557 6,115,349
1,330 3,722
3,782 Apr-05
4.185 5.305
4.149 3.269
4.63 4.729
5,550,986 1,330
4,434 3,882
May-05 0.694
0.736 1.083
0.543 1.83
4.496 2,779,426
1,330 7,185
3,830 Jun-05
3.324 6.275
1.877 1.444
2.52 4.763
2,514,935 1,330
29,861 3,755
Jul-05 4.410
6.693 4.802
5.073 3.45
4.824 2,977,051
1,330 12,840
3,748 Aug-05
5.160 4.741
4.051 10.027
11.21 4.618
3,421,382 1,330
36,980 3,863
Sep-05 4.739
3.285 2.699
2.088 5.19
4.525 2,733,267
1,330 6,997
3,981 Oct-05
1.027 0.679
0.555 0.574
0.66 4.615
1,842,574 1,330
10,942 3,950
Nov-05 1.887
2.653 5.604
0.669 1.21
4.687 1,182,325
1,330 16,282
3,843 Dec-05
2.866 2.565
3.689 1.815
3.05 4.496
1,082,380 1,730
44,793 3,773
Jan-06 5.338
9.288 4.792
3.244 6.98
6.139 1,376,718
1,730 21,194
3,752 Feb-06
5.639 18.377
10.377 3.309
5.03 8.937
3,800,740 1,730
70,621 3,847
Mar-06 4.283
8.550 11.607
3.065 6.93
6.636 6,531,541
1,730 7,400
3,731 Apr-06
3.196 3.290
4.121 2.813
4.72 3.421
4,675,695 1,730
12,691 3,620
May-06 2.806
3.333 2.842
2.976 3.51
3.143 2,668,989
1,730 3,551
3,685 Jun-06
4.221 5.603
2.682 2.245
3.41 4.584
2,663,972 1,730
27,497 3,869
Jul-06 4.026
6.046 5.365
6.576 4.02
5.471 3,232,681
1,730 26,018
3,854 Aug-06
4.018 4.296
3.324 3.231
3.45 3.934
3,175,739 1,730
11,349 3,813
Sep-06 3.956
3.820 4.184
1.917 5.45
3.831 2,635,664
1,730 18,806
3,839 Oct-06
3.634 4.658
4.437 2.025
4.30 3.973
1,592,319 1,730
49,465 3,746
Nov-06 3.149
4.404 4.775
3.536 3.27
3.793 1,110,515
1,730 79,418
3,708 Dec-06
4.544 4.558
3.803 2.911
2.21 3.992
950,951 1,730
110,102 3,770
Jan-07 3.955
5.563 4.858
2.915 4.59
4.283 989,957
1,730 32,349
3,948 Feb-07
3.966 5.456
5.033 2.682
4.51 4.156
1,821,562 1,730
96,294 3,993
Mar-07 4.022
5.318 4.769
2.809 4.66
4.560 4,626,007
2,000 195,498
4,051 Apr-07
4.099 5.272
4.141 3.196
4.65 4.730
6,663,515 2,000
86,305 4,060
May-07 4.281
5.299 4.092
3.444 4.53
4.682 4,097,724
2,000 86,305
4,013 Jun-07
4.279 5.322
4.303 3.626
4.45 4.797
2,873,284 2,000
101,955 4,208
Jul-07 4.270
5.367 4.497
3.571 4.49
4.928 3,001,150
2,000 38,518
4,144 Aug-07
4.300 5.401
4.783 3.482
4.68 4.790
3,984,894 2,000
65,553 4,168
Sep-07 4.413
5.537 5.084
3.970 4.49
4.821 3,418,327
2,000 151,918
4,186 Oct-07
4.381 5.549
5.113 4.207
4.49 4.852
2,004,288 2,000
54,383 4,249
Nov-07 4.389
5.582 4.989
4.285 4.46
4.893 1,476,198
2,000 140,016
4,468 Dec-07
4.294 5.576
4.697 3.854
4.47 4.751
1,166,592 2,000
107,845 4,712
Jan-08 3.494
2.841 5.143
2.990 4.95
3.262 1,032,792
2,000 136,580
4,933 Feb-08
3.921 3.187
5.346 2.727
4.92 3.442
1,896,913 2,000
9,060 5,647
Mar-08 4.050
6.160 5.181
2.816 5.13
4.964 4,891,632
2,200 74,195
7,014 Apr-08
4.127 7.125
4.596 3.161
5.11 5.641
7,070,022 2,200
76,266 9,842
May-08 4.284
6.048 4.515
3.414 4.93
5.104 4,325,661
2,200 29,077
10,655 Jun-08
4.273 6.192
4.727 3.600
4.78 5.289
3,039,366 2,200
30,046 8,885
Jul-08 4.292
7.041 4.944
3.544 4.81
5.868 3,190,768
2,200 10,217
8,329 Aug-08
4.329 5.512
5.227 3.423
5.15 4.935
4,196,388 2,200
21,497 7,858
Sep-08 4.464
4.901 5.361
3.912 4.96
4.658 3,575,416
2,200 14,565
7,941 Oct-08
4.404 5.361
5.314 4.169
4.90 4.856
2,098,893 2,200
12,231 6,772
Nov-08 5.232
10.977 2.500
5.118 2.68
4.611 1,538,612
2,200 16,157
6,911 Dec-08
4.279 3.133
4.997 3.939
4.84 3.805
1,222,203 2,200
16,011 6,457
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
Bulan QSBR PTHA
JPSU JPJWJPDKBN
JPKN JPSW
JPDK TRIF
KKSU KKJW KKBN KKKN KKSW
Jan-04 1,563,191
1,671 44,858
127,312 11,505
11,764 15,427
215,454 430.000
122.06 104.51
128.00 108.28
119.08 Feb-04
4,211,272 1,689
44,858 127,312
11,505 11,764
15,427 215,454
430.000 122.06
104.51 128.00
108.28 119.08
Mar-04 6,086,168
1,919 44,858
127,312 11,505
11,764 15,427
215,454 430.000
122.06 104.51
128.00 108.28
119.08 Apr-04
4,630,036 1,973
44,858 127,312
11,505 11,764
15,427 215,454
430.000 122.06
104.51 128.00
108.28 119.08
May-04 2,910,791
2,049 44,858
127,312 11,505
11,764 15,427
215,454 430.000
122.06 104.51
128.00 108.28
119.08 Jun-04
2,546,801 2,071
44,858 127,312
11,505 11,764
15,427 215,454
430.000 122.06
104.51 128.00
108.28 119.08
Jul-04 3,082,335
2,066 44,858
127,312 11,505
11,764 15,427
215,454 430.000
122.06 104.51
128.00 108.28
119.08 Aug-04
3,006,817 2,127
44,858 127,312
11,505 11,764
15,427 215,454
430.000 122.06
104.51 128.00
108.28 119.08
Sep-04 2,376,803
2,094 44,858
127,312 11,505
11,764 15,427
215,454 430.000
122.06 104.51
128.00 108.28
119.08 Oct-04
1,687,540 2,112
44,858 127,312
11,505 11,764
15,427 215,454
430.000 122.06
104.51 128.00
108.28 119.08
Nov-04 1,145,172
2,207 44,858
127,312 11,505
11,764 15,427
215,454 430.000
122.06 104.51
128.00 108.28
119.08 Dec-04
1,162,786 2,432
44,858 127,312
11,505 11,764
15,427 215,454
430.000 122.06
104.51 128.00
108.28 119.08
Jan-05 1,259,442
2,473 46,378
128,835 11,834
12,191 15,813
219,852 450.000
120.51 101.84
122.64 105.67
107.72 Feb-05
2,770,882 2,501
46,378 128,835
11,834 12,191
15,813 219,852
450.000 120.51
101.84 122.64
105.67 107.72
Mar-05 6,106,524
2,553 46,378
128,835 11,834
12,191 15,813
219,852 450.000
120.51 101.84
122.64 105.67
107.72 Apr-05
5,551,166 2,633
46,378 128,835
11,834 12,191
15,813 219,852
450.000 120.51
101.84 122.64
105.67 107.72
May-05 2,771,960
2,585 46,378
128,835 11,834
12,191 15,813
219,852 450.000
120.51 101.84
122.64 105.67
107.72 Jun-05
2,544,749 2,524
46,378 128,835
11,834 12,191
15,813 219,852
450.000 120.51
101.84 122.64
105.67 107.72
Jul-05 2,989,862
2,514 46,378
128,835 11,834
12,191 15,813
219,852 450.000
120.51 101.84
122.64 105.67
107.72 Aug-05
3,458,337 2,608
46,378 128,835
11,834 12,191
15,813 219,852
450.000 120.51
101.84 122.64
105.67 107.72
Sep-05 2,740,263
2,706 46,378
128,835 11,834
12,191 15,813
219,852 450.000
120.51 101.84
122.64 105.67
107.72 Oct-05
1,853,484 2,681
46,378 128,835
11,834 12,191
15,813 219,852
450.000 120.51
101.84 122.64
105.67 107.72
Nov-05 1,198,585
2,589 46,378
128,835 11,834
12,191 15,813
219,852 450.000
120.51 101.84
122.64 105.67
107.72 Dec-05
1,127,150 2,534
46,378 128,835
11,834 12,191
15,813 219,852
450.000 120.51
101.84 122.64
105.67 107.72
Jan-06 1,397,765
2,524 47,185
130,184 12,027
12,409 16,052
222,747 450.000
119.68 99.35
117.68 102.16
110.81 Feb-06
3,871,314 2,607
47,185 130,184
12,027 12,409
16,052 222,747
450.000 119.68
99.35 117.68
102.16 110.81
Mar-06 6,538,801
2,514 47,185
130,184 12,027
12,409 16,052
222,747 450.000
119.68 99.35
117.68 102.16
110.81 Apr-06
4,688,317 2,425
47,185 130,184
12,027 12,409
16,052 222,747
450.000 119.68
99.35 117.68
102.16 110.81
May-06 2,672,502
2,479 47,185
130,184 12,027
12,409 16,052
222,747 450.000
119.68 99.35
117.68 102.16
110.81 Jun-06
2,691,369 2,626
47,185 130,184
12,027 12,409
16,052 222,747
450.000 119.68
99.35 117.68
102.16 110.81
Jul-06 3,258,602
2,616 47,185
130,184 12,027
12,409 16,052
222,747 450.000
119.68 99.35
117.68 102.16
110.81 Aug-06
3,186,987 2,585
47,185 130,184
12,027 12,409
16,052 222,747
450.000 119.68
99.35 117.68
102.16 110.81
Sep-06 2,654,370
2,599 47,185
130,184 12,027
12,409 16,052
222,747 450.000
119.68 99.35
117.68 102.16
110.81 Oct-06
1,641,710 2,524
47,185 130,184
12,027 12,409
16,052 222,747
450.000 119.68
99.35 117.68
102.16 110.81
Nov-06 1,189,910
2,495 47,185
130,184 12,027
12,409 16,052
222,747 450.000
119.68 99.35
117.68 102.16
110.81 Dec-06
1,061,030 2,548
47,185 130,184
12,027 12,409
16,052 222,747
450.000 119.68
99.35 117.68
102.16 110.81
Jan-07 1,022,250
2,600 47,995
131,528 12,221
12,628 16,292
225,642 550.000
117.29 96.24
116.00 101.01
107.77 Feb-07
1,917,846 2,645
47,995 131,528
12,221 12,628
16,292 225,642
550.000 117.29
96.24 116.00
101.01 107.77
Mar-07 4,821,497
2,729 47,995
131,528 12,221
12,628 16,292
225,642 550.000
117.29 96.24
116.00 101.01
107.77 Apr-07
6,749,819 2,688
47,995 131,528
12,221 12,628
16,292 225,642
550.000 117.29
96.24 116.00
101.01 107.77
May-07 4,183,995
2,653 47,995
131,528 12,221
12,628 16,292
225,642 550.000
117.29 96.24
116.00 101.01
107.77 Jun-07
2,975,216 2,814
47,995 131,528
12,221 12,628
16,292 225,642
550.000 117.29
96.24 116.00
101.01 107.77
Jul-07 3,039,655
2,767 47,995
131,528 12,221
12,628 16,292
225,642 550.000
117.29 96.24
116.00 101.01
107.77 Aug-07
4,050,446 2,786
47,995 131,528
12,221 12,628
16,292 225,642
550.000 117.29
96.24 116.00
101.01 107.77
Sep-07 3,570,184
2,805 47,995
131,528 12,221
12,628 16,292
225,642 550.000
117.29 96.24
116.00 101.01
107.77 Oct-07
2,058,637 2,864
47,995 131,528
12,221 12,628
16,292 225,642
550.000 117.29
96.24 116.00
101.01 107.77
Nov-07 1,616,121
3,036 47,995
131,528 12,221
12,628 16,292
225,642 550.000
117.29 96.24
116.00 101.01
107.77 Dec-07
1,273,157 3,246
47,995 131,528
12,221 12,628
16,292 225,642
550.000 117.29
96.24 116.00
101.01 107.77
Jan-08 1,169,320
3,428 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 550.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Feb-08 1,905,964
3,255 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Mar-08 4,965,797
4,167 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Apr-08 7,146,238
6,054 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
May-08 4,354,679
6,595 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Jun-08 3,069,351
5,413 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Jul-08 3,200,958
6,414 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Aug-08 4,217,801
6,015 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Sep-08 3,589,819
6,081 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Oct-08 2,111,125
5,074 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Nov-08 1,554,581
5,156 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Dec-08 1,238,060
4,779 48,807
132,857 12,414
12,848 16,531
228,523 450.000
121.17 99.66
119.38 103.35 112.24997
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
Bulan
PGSU PGJW
PGBN PGKN
PGSW PGTP
PBSU PBJW
PBBN PBKN
PBSW
Jan-04 1,240
1,263 1,109
1,150 958
1,263 2,723
2,825 2,392
2,296 2307
Feb-04 1,194
1,182 1,109
1,100 970
1,171 2,815
2,754 2,371
2,259 2167
Mar-04 1,240
1,115 1,074
1,257 1,006
1,096 2,903
2,665 2,280
2,284 2136
Apr-04 1,253
1,167 1,126
1,237 1,115
1,156 2,989
2,751 2,288
2,267 2112
May-04 1,316
1,248 1,091
1,243 1,017
1,234 2,978
2,723 2,222
2,267 2140
Jun-04 1,292
1,221 1,056
1,307 900
1,217 2,976
2,617 2,218
2,267 2140
Jul-04 1,363
1,187 1,094
1,263 1,030
1,199 2,976
2,588 2,236
2,277 2140
Aug-04 1,348
1,165 1,069
1,223 1,025
1,187 2,934
2,553 2,239
2,456 2140
Sep-04 1,347
1,166 1,202
1,223 1,146
1,218 2,934
2,553 2,239
2,284 2200
Oct-04 1,346
1,226 1,173
1,264 1,094
1,271 2,950
2,587 2,296
2,331 2296
Nov-04 1,329
1,244 1,227
1,264 1,094
1,285 3,019
2,587 2,375
2,269 2245
Dec-04 1,342
1,235 1,189
1,264 1,094
1,232 3,225
2,688 2,497
2,300 2245
Jan-05 1,509
1,351 1,274
1,370 1,240
1,406 3,418
2,769 2,880
2,331 2850
Feb-05 1,572
1,343 1,274
1,289 1,450
1,398 3,718
2,840 2,790
2,385 3265
Mar-05 1,650
1,368 1,200
1,502 1,377
1,379 3,844
2,895 2,820
2,385 3273
Apr-05 1,578
1,298 1,159
1,572 1,154
1,339 3,748
2,763 2,600
2,441 3177
May-05 1,559
1,333 1,275
1,415 1,130
1,366 3,701
2,709 2,560
2,940 2997
Jun-05 1,516
1,369 1,383
1,389 1,236
1,424 3,655
2,707 2,780
2,425 2,969
Jul-05 1,585
1,398 1,447
1,423 1,191
1,446 3,707
2,703 2,920
2,394 3,041
Aug-05 1,591
1,489 1,416
1,427 1,301
1,530 3,665
2,825 2,900
2,644 2,891
Sep-05 1,679
1,596 1,405
1,557 1,275
1,606 3,721
2,893 2,975
2,644 2,891
Oct-05 1,729
1,733 1,521
1,608 1,459
1,704 3,622
3,198 3,325
2,706 3,095
Nov-05 1,821
1,740 1,589
1,625 1,463
1,762 3,664
3,218 3,376
2,738 3,095
Dec-05 1,836
1,775 1,647
1,700 1,257
1,824 3,718
3,293 3,450
2,731 3,188
Jan-06 1,905
1,990 1,719
1,898 1,733
1,995 4,019
4,074 3,961
3,210 3,275
Feb-06 2,064
1,953 1,668
2,065 1,794
1,973 4,206
4,270 4,456
3,410 3,475
Mar-06 2,021
1,706 1,555
2,325 1,621
1,771 4,206
3,984 4,000
3,410 3,335
Apr-06 2,015
1,757 1,604
2,532 1,565
1,828 4,356
3,784 3,956
3,865 3,415
May-06 1,951
1,886 1,654
2,819 1,663
1,977 4,344
3,874 3,956
4,135 3,535
Jun-06 2,067
1,968 1,650
2,661 1,758
2,036 4,344
3,951 4,044
4,115 3,515
Jul-06 2,101
1,983 1,852
2,404 1,719
2,034 4,391
4,048 4,033
4,095 3,515
Aug-06 2,117
2,079 1,929
2,373 1,806
2,095 4,363
4,108 4,144
3,865 3,413
Sep-06 2,020
2,106 1,838
2,390 1,834
2,071 4,450
4,145 4,167
3,865 3,529
Oct-06 2,074
2,104 1,910
2,376 1,935
2,104 4,450
4,124 4,133
3,975 3,563
Nov-06 2,241
2,181 1,880
2,414 2,006
2,180 4,400
4,155 4,300
4,025 3,596
Dec-06 2,373
2,401 1,851
2,506 2,022
2,394 4,960
4,688 4,533
4,125 4,192
Jan-07 2,536
2,528 2,200
2,797 2,363
2,571 5,254
5,028 4,894
4,200 4,292
Feb-07 2,625
2,701 2,403
3,012 2,363
2,634 5,406
5,396 4,894
4,200 4,292
Mar-07 2,673
2,470 2,122
3,009 2,211
2,433 5,229
5,324 4,505
4,228 4,553
Apr-07 2,430
2,025 1,930
2,889 1,876
2,134 5,301
4,615 4,950
4,290 4,240
May-07 2,317
2,058 1,931
2,545 1,872
2,155 5,159
4,300 5,008
4,263 4,000
Jun-07 2,343
2,124 2,158
2,681 2,115
2,267 5,041
4,379 4,684
4,164 4,000
Jul-07 2,313
2,205 2,150
2,648 2,115
2,261 5,087
4,482 5,131
4,145 3,979
Aug-07 2,313
2,245 2,161
2,358 2,010
2,259 5,178
4,503 4,918
4,089 4,079
Sep-07 2,253
2,346 2,223
2,475 1,965
2,308 5,234
4,503 4,225
4,136 4,000
Oct-07 2,280
2,332 2,277
2,465 2,068
2,323 5,087
4,503 4,411
4,419 4,000
Nov-07 2,290
2,335 2,367
2,213 1,986
2,328 5,184
4,400 4,200
4,112 4,000
Dec-07 2,419
2,397 2,260
2,358 1,885
2,393 5,126
4,414 4,200
4,228 4,000
Jan-08 2,484
2,593 2,187
2,701 2,300
2,531 5,143
4,646 4,488
4,407 4,235
Feb-08 2,599
2,716 2,429
2,945 2,216
2,587 5,190
4,870 4,758
4,719 4,400
Mar-08 2,618
2,298 2,015
2,925 2,031
2,319 5,723
4,454 4,683
4,612 4,400
Apr-08 2,343
1,847 1,778
2,804 1,722
2,008 5,638
4,700 4,114
4,451 4,072
May-08 2,243
1,944 1,774
2,507 1,703
2,044 5,421
4,929 4,347
4,438 4,000
Jun-08 2,283
2,066 1,986
2,620 1,895
2,158 5,408
4,983 4,443
4,465 4,173
Jul-08 2,252
2,168 1,998
2,605 1,889
2,159 5,479
4,840 4,550
4,472 4,200
Aug-08 2,269
2,220 2,027
2,308 1,798
2,166 5,539
5,138 4,700
4,158 4,247
Sep-08 2,204
2,335 2,067
2,348 1,752
2,200 5,651
5,114 4,700
4,133 4,312
Oct-08 2,187
2,296 2,102
2,346 1,835
2,190 5,574
5,103 4,700
4,000 4,250
Nov-08 2,182
2,319 2,186
2,252 1,831
2,201 5,525
5,039 4,700
4,100 4,250
Dec-08 2,224
2,411 2,081
2,299 1,829
2,300 5,525
5,106 4,700
4,100 4,250
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
Bulan INCS INCJ
ICBN ICKN ICSW INCK INFL ASBI LSBI STCK PJSU PJJW PJBN PJKN PJSW PJTP IHK T SKBG EXCR
Jan-04 910,555
848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638 884,173
5 767 182,032 1,856,236
1,262 1,052
1,221 1,716
992 1,249
0.98
1 8
8,441 Feb-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 5
44,427 211,586 1,720,755 1,285
1,012 1,329
1,719 977
1,264
0.96
2 8
8,447 Mar-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 5 403,598 217,967 1,864,032
1,260 1,013
1,380 1,729
994 1,275
0.97
3 7
8,575 Apr-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 6 596,008 202,948 2,321,368
1,308 1,073
1,415 1,744
1,007 1,309
0.98
4 7
8,606 May-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 6 494,291 200,861 2,626,867
1,321 1,121
1,438 1,855
1,018 1,351
0.99
5 7
9,210 Jun-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 7 260,294 211,937 2,662,950
1,324 1,161
1,483 1,855
1,051 1,375
1.00
6 7
9,415 Jul-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 7 101,932 187,234 2,529,604
1,333 1,199
1,478 1,865
1,044 1,384
1.00
7 7
9,350 Aug-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 7
47,006 194,112 2,362,467 1,361
1,185 1,471
1,865 1,098
1,396
0.98
8 7
9,328 Sep-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 6
40,746 201,844 2,204,824 1,350
1,189 1,481
1,910 1,106
1,407
0.97
9 7
9,328 Oct-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 6
62,690 215,382 1,996,474 1,334
1,194 1,468
1,988 1,163
1,429
0.98
10 7
9,170 Nov-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 6
27,782 247,581 1,768,663 1,366
1,197 1,499
2,013 1,176
1,450
1.00
11 7
9,016 Dec-04
910,555 848,952 451,908 1,469,507 491,638
884,173 6
17,067 138,103 1,770,532 1,373
1,192 1,484
2,013 1,154
1,443
1.03
12 7
9,290 Jan-05
1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295 7
0 178,694 1,547,223 1,379
1,184 1,469
2,083 1,160
1,455
1.06
13 7
9,207 Feb-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
7 0 207,970 1,291,216
1,362 1,155
1,475 2,092
1,110 1,439
1.04
14 7
9,244 Mar-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
9 116,776 203,631 1,206,896 1,366
1,147 1,438
2,083 1,101
1,427
1.04
15 7
9,367 Apr-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
8 493,183 186,269 1,514,032 1,366
1,168 1,429
2,092 1,090
1,429
1.04
16 8
9,532 May-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
7 514,685 182,254 1,827,388 1,390
1,181 1,435
1,995 1,111
1,422
1.04
17 8
9,481 Jun-05
1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295 7 200,838 189,021 1,867,018
1,400 1,206
1,386 1,985
1,128 1,421
1.05
18 8
9,616 Jul-05
1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295 8 115,282 188,698 1,804,777
1,423 1,228
1,413 1,827
1,117 1,401
1.07
19 8
9,800 Aug-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
8 52,441 185,463 1,686,227
1,466 1,218
1,454 1,867
1,111 1,423
1.07
20 9
9,977 Sep-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
9 18,774 208,990 1,478,498
1,457 1,219
1,497 2,001
1,121 1,459
1.08
21 10
10,228 Oct-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
18 3,595 213,447 1,211,766
1,531 1,280
1,603 2,043
1,152 1,522
1.16
22 11
10,101 Nov-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
18 2,257 160,612 1,118,394
1,485 1,273
1,609 2,043
1,154 1,513
1.19
23 12
10,063 Dec-05 1,068,266 1,018,971 511,475 1,838,699 572,932 1,056,295
17 11,887 128,167 1,092,588
1,442 1,259
1,600 2,043
1,192 1,507
1.17
24 13
9,860 Jan-06
1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478 17
24,092 124,421 943,230
1,586 1,224
1,773 2,080
1,190 1,570
1.22
25 13
9,481 Feb-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
18 8,711 168,169
935,827 1,459
1,240 1,691
2,042 1,191
1,525
1.23
26 13
9,481 Mar-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
16 186,976 160,556 945,942
1,421 1,235
1,668 2,042
1,188 1,511
1.22
27 13
9,158 Apr-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
15 457,227 156,608 1,245,483 1,456
1,252 1,592
2,088 1,189
1,515
1.21
28 13
8,931 May-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
16 342,857 178,521 1,408,965 1,471
1,330 1,640
2,084 1,192
1,543
1.22
29 13
8,981 Jun-06
1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478 16 157,914 178,930 1,363,028
1,453 1,381
1,717 2,094
1,208 1,571
1.23
30 13
9,363 Jul-06
1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478 15
62,567 185,061 1,261,898 1,456
1,386 1,677
2,186 1,231
1,587
1.24
31 12
9,137 Aug-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
15 20,990 176,182 1,109,860
1,457 1,433
1,693 2,228
1,238 1,610
1.24
32 12
9,091 Sep-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
15 101,933 183,842 1,013,789 1,517
1,461 1,687
2,311 1,261
1,647
1.25
33 11
9,142 Oct-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
6 58,019 188,878
958,150 1,519
1,477 1,738
2,361 1,481
1,715
1.27
34 11
9,192 Nov-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
5 12,651 107,035
988,614 1,499
1,506 1,724
2,371 1,529
1,726
1.28
35 10
9,130 Dec-06 1,235,998 1,189,053 559,697 2,002,283 652,816 1,252,478
7 191
34,476 957,658
1,522 1,587
1,697 2,413
1,652 1,774
1.32
36 10
9,092 Jan-07
1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115 6
0 231,227 738,353
1,681 1,682
1,801 2,544
1,479 1,838
1.36
37 10
9,071 Feb-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
6 0 290,765
554,321 1,759
1,746 1,904
2,560 1,771
1,948
1.37
38 9
9,066 Mar-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
7 0 290,988
433,952 1,885
1,709 1,932
2,503 1,734
1,953
1.37
39 9
9,151 Apr-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
6 296,666 171,909 693,545
1,880 1,609
2,011 2,613
1,722 1,967
1.35
40 9
9,103 May-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
6 641,078 159,500 1,271,685 1,872
1,628 2,028
2,663 1,627
1,964
1.35
41 9
8,981 Jun-07
1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115 6 375,834 171,677 1,532,960
2,194 1,602
2,023 2,418
1,413 1,930
1.35
42 9
9,363 Jul-07
1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115 6 220,892 165,353 1,714,348
1,814 1,688
2,023 2,436
1,563 1,905
1.37
43 8
9,019 Aug-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
7 97,601 174,249 1,747,097
2,038 1,648
1,999 2,607
1,554 1,969
1.38
44 8
9,091 Sep-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
7 58,948 176,693 1,682,648
1,904 1,706
2,082 2,793
1,643 2,025
1.41
45 8
9,142 Oct-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
7 34,206 168,194 1,685,046
2,067 1,757
2,108 2,790
1,636 2,072
1.43
46 8
9,107 Nov-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
7 27,612 155,474 1,661,690
1,996 1,792
2,104 2,819
1,663 2,075
1.43
47 8
9,264 Dec-07 1,406,834 1,318,082 650,722 2,124,431 737,569 1,465,115
7 13,150
79,709 1,572,933 1,634
1,807 2,206
3,033 1,567
2,050
1.47
48 8
9,334 Jan-08
1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802 7
0 170,981 1,401,952 1,647
1,726 1,791
2,456 1,439
1,812
1.51
49 8
9,406 Feb-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
7 2,388 315,839 1,088,501
1,742 1,756
1,924 2,503
1,660 1,917
1.53
50 8
9,179 Mar-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
8 352,678 266,457 1,174,722 1,846
1,590 1,835
2,433 1,592
1,859
1.56
51 8
9,595 Apr-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
9 639,514 239,706 1,574,530 1,813
1,467 1,854
2,536 1,580
1,850
1.56
52 8
8,534 May-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
10 548,410 234,434 1,888,506 1,812
1,537 1,863
2,623 1,480
1,863
1.59
53 8
9,450 Jun-08
1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802 11 332,824 342,862 1,878,468
2,137 1,559
1,862 2,363
1,267 1,838
1.58
54 9
9,296 Jul-08
1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802 12 339,105 431,801 1,785,772
1,767 1,660
1,880 2,396
1,396 1,820
1.60
55 9
9,163 Aug-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
12 255,465 89,503 1,951,734
1,998 1,630
1,875 2,552
1,389 1,889
1.62
56 9
9,149 Sep-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
12 245,289 338,415 1,858,608 1,863
1,698 1,935
2,649 1,465
1,922
1.65
57 10
9,341 Oct-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
12 186,263 294,806 1,750,065 1,983
1,730 1,946
2,655 1,452
1,953
1.66
58 11
10,048 Nov-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
12 201,493 345,766 1,605,792 1,896
1,702 1,999
2,678 1,580
1,971
1.65
59 11
11,711 Dec-08 1,626,504 1,527,085 735,039 2,408,543 844,421 1,733,802
11 102,508 59,736 1,648,564
1,536 1,698
2,074 2,851
1,473 1,927
1.66
60 11
11,711
Areal Panen Wilayah
Harga Jagung
Wilayah
Prdkvtas Wilayah
Prod Padi Wilayah
Prod Padi Nasional
HPP Harga Gabah
Wilayah
Hrg Beras Wilayah
Stok Nasional Operasional Bulog
Impor Harga
Impor
Harga Beras Nasional
Harga Gabah
Nasional
Pengadaan Wilayah
Pengadaan Nasional
Konsumsi Nasional
Konsumsi Wilayah
Stok Wilayah
Marjin Wilayah
Penyaluran Wilayah
Penyaluran Nasional
Exchange Rate
Jml pddk wilayah
Lampiran 2. Diagram Model Ekonomi Perberasan Indonesia
Tarif Harga
Beras Thailand
Income per kapita wilayah
Prod Beras
Wilayah
Prod Beras Nasional
QSBR
: Peubah Eksogen
: Peubah Endogen
Lampiran 3. Program Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Perberasan Tahun 2004- 2008
data
beras; set
work.piter; if
asbi= then
asbi=
0.01
; if
asbis= then
asbis=
0.01 ;
if asbij=
then asbij=
0.01 ;
if asbib=
then asbib=
0.01 ;
if asbik=
then asbik=
0.01
; if
asbiss= then
asbiss=
0.01
; AREA
= ARLS + ARLJ + ALBN + ARLK + ALSW + ARLL; LPJBN
=lagPJBN; KBSU
=KKSUJPSU; KBJW
=KKJWJPJW; KBBN
=KKBNJPBN; KBKN
=KKKNJPKN; KBSW
=KKSWJPSW; KBIN
=KOBIJPDK; LMRJNK
= lagMRJNK; TPBI
= TPBS + TPBJ + TPBB + TPBK + TPBSW + TPBL; QSBR
= TPBI + IMPR + STCK + IMPR ‐BSPL ‐ EXPR; TPPS
= ARLSPDVS; TPPJ
= ARLJPDVJ; TPBN
= ALBNPVBN; TPPK
= ARLKPDVK; TPSW
= ALSWPVSW; TPPI
= TPPS + TPPJ + TPBN + TPPK + TPSW + TPPL; TPBI
= TPBS + TPBJ + TPBB + TPBK + TPBSW + TPBL; KBIN
= KBSU + KBJW + KBBN + KBKN + KBSW + KBLL; LARLS=lagARLS;
LALBN=lagALBN; LARLK=lagARLK;
LALSW=lagALSW; LAREA=lagAREA;
LASBI=lagASBI; LIMPR=lagIMPR;
LKBSU=lagKBSU; LKBJW=lagKBJW;
LKBBN=lagKBBN; LKBKN=lagKBKN;
LKBSW=lagKBSW; LKBIN=lagKBIN;
LPBBN=lagPBBN; LPBIN=lagPBIN;
LPBJW=lagPBJW; LPBKN=lagPBKN;
LPBSU=lagPBSU; LPBSW=lagPBSW;
LPGBN=lagPGBN; LPGJW=lagPGJW;
LPGKN=lagPGKN; LPGSU=lagPGSU;
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
LPGSW=lagPGSW; LPGTP=lagPGTP;
LPIMP=lagPIMP; LSTCK=lagSTCK;
LSTCKJ =lagSTCKJ;
LSTCKS =lagSTCKS;
LLSBI =lagLSBI;
LT =logT;
LTPPI=lagTPPI; LTPPS=lagTPPS;
LTPPJ=lagTPPJ; LTPBN=lagTPBN;
LTPPK=lagTPPK; LTPBI
=lagTPBI; LTPBS=lagTPBS;
RPBI =PBININCK;
RPBIS =PBSUINCS;
RPBIJ =PBJWINCJ;
RPBIBN=PBBNICBN; RPBIK
=PBKNICKN; RPBISW=PBSWICSW;
LASBIS =lag ASBIS;
LASBIJ =lag ASBIJ;
LASBIK =lagASBIK;
LLSBIB =lagLSBIB;
LLSBIK =lagLSBIK;
RTPAS =TPPI‐LTPPILASBI;
RTPASS =TPPSLASBIS;
RTPASB =LTPBNASBIB;
RTPASK =LTPPK‐TPPKLASBIK;
RQSK =QSBR‐KBIN;
RTPBKS =LTPBSKBSU;
RTPBKJ =TPBJLKBJW;
RTPBKB =TPBBKBBN;
RTPBKK =TPBKKBKN;
RTPBKSW=TPBSWKBSW; label
AREA =
Luas Areal Panen
PJTP =
Harga Jagung Petani Indonesia
PRDV =
Produktivitas Padi
LT =
Log Tren Waktu
LAREA =
Lag Luas Areal Panen
RPBX =
Rasio antara Harga Beras dan Harga Impor
EXCR =
Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap US Dollar LIMPR=
Lag Jumlah Impor Beras Indonesia
TPBI =
Total Produksi Beras Indonesia
IMPR =
Jumlah Impor Beras Indonesia
PIMP =
Harga Impor Beras Indonesia
TRIF =
Tarif Impor
PTHA =
Harga Beras Thailand
LPIMP= Lag
Harga Beras Impor Indonesia KBIN
= Konsumsi
Beras Indonesia RPBI
= Rasio
antara Income per kapita dan Harga BerasSumatera RPBIS=
Rasio antara Income per kapita dan Harga Beras Sumatera Sumatera
RPBIJ= Rasio
antara Income per kapita dan Harga Beras JawaJawa
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
RPBIBN= Rasio
antara Income per kapita dan Harga BerasBali NT RPBIK
= Rasio
antara Income per kapita Kalimantan dan Harga BerasKalimantan RPBISW=
Rasio antara Income per kapita dan Harga Beras Sulawesi
JPDK =
Jumlah Penduduk Indonesia
JPSU =
Jumlah Penduduk Sumatera
JPJW =
Jumlah Penduduk Jawa
JPBN =
Jumlah Penduduk Bali dan Nusa Tenggara
JPKN =
Jumlah Penduduk Kalimantan
JPSW =
Jumlah Penduduk Sulawesi
KBSU =
Konsumsi Beras Sumatera
KBJW =
Konsumsi Beras Jawa
KBBN =
Konsumsi Beras Bali Nusa Tenggara
KBKN =
Konsumsi Beras Kalimantan
KBSW =
Lag Konsumsi Beras Sulawesi
LKBSU =
Lag Konsumsi Beras Sumatera
LKBJW =
Lag Konsumsi Beras Jawa
LKBBN =
Lag Konsumsi Beras Bali Nusa Tenggara
LKBKN =
Lag Konsumsi Beras Kalimantan
LKBSW =
Lag Konsumsi Beras Sulawesi
PDPP =
Harga Pembelian Pemerintah
PGTP =
Harga Gabah Petani Indonesia
TPAS= Rasio
Produksi Padi dan Pengadaan Perum Bulog RTPASS
= Rasio
Selisih Lag Produksi Padi Sumatera dan Pengadaan Perum Bulog RTPASJ
= Rasio
Produksi Padi Jawa dan Pengadaan Perum Bulog RTPASB=
Rasio Lag Produksi Padi Bali NT dan Pengadaan Perum Bulog
RTPASK= Rasio
Selisih Lag Produksi Padi Kalimantan dan Pengadaan Perum Bulog RTPASSW=
Rasio Selisih Lag Produksi Padi Sulawesi dan Pengadaan Perum Bulog
PGSU =
Harga Gabah Petani Sumaatera
PGJW =
Harga Gabah Petani Jawa
PGBN =
Harga Gabah Petani Bali Nusa Tenggara
PGKN =
Harga Gabah Petani Kalimantan
PGSW =
Harga Gabah Petani Sulawesi
LPGTP =
Lag Harga Gabah Petani Indonesia
LPGSU =
Lag Harga Gabah Petani Sumaatera
LPGJW =
Lag Harga Gabah Petani Jawa
LPGBN =
Lag Harga Gabah Petani Bali Nusa Tenggara
LPGKN =
Lag Harga Gabah Petani Kalimantan
LPGSW =
Lag Harga Gabah Petani Sulawesi
PBIN =
Harga Beras Indonesia
RTBIM= Rasio
antara Produksi Beras dan Jumlah Beras Impor Indonesia RTBIMS=
Rasio antara Produksi Beras Sumatera dan Jumlah Beras Impor Indonesia
RTBIMJ= Rasio
antara Produksi Beras Jawa dan Jumlah Beras Impor Indonesia RTBIMB=
Rasio antara Produksi Beras Bali Nusa Tenggara dan Jumlah Beras Impor
Indonesia RTBIMK=
Rasio antara Produksi Beras Kalimantan dan Jumlah Beras Impor Indonesia
RTBIMSW= Rasio
antara Produksi Beras Sulawesi dan Jumlah Beras Imnpor Indonesia PBSU
= Harga
Beras Sumatera PBJW
= Harga
Beras Jawa PBBN
= Harga
Beras Bali Nusa Tenggara PBKN
= Harga
Beras Kalimantan PBSW
= Harga
Beras Sulawesi LPBIN
= Lag
Harga Beras Indonesia LPBSU
= Lag
Harga Beras Sumatera LPBJW
= Harga
Beras Jawa LPBBN
= Lag
Harga Beras Bali Nusa Tenggara LPBKN
= Lag
Harga Beras Kalimantan
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
LPBSW =
Lag Harga Beras Sulawesi
ASBI =
Jumlah Pengadaan Gabah Perum Bulog
LSBI =
Jumlah Penyaluran Beras Perum Bulog
LASBI =
Lag Jumlah Pengadaan Gabah Perum Bulog
LLSBI =
Lag Jumlah Penyaluran Beras Perum Bulog
STCK =
Stok Operasional Perum Bulog
RTBK =
Rasio Produksi Beras dan Konsumsi Beras Indonesia
; array
bagi PGTP INCK INCS INCJ ICBN ICKN ICSW EXCR TRIF PTHA PBIN PIMP PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW
PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PJSU PJJW PJBN PJKN PJSW PJTP;
do over
bagi; bagi=bagiihk;
end ;
proc syslin
2
sls data
=beras outest
=hasil; endogenous
AREA STCK IMPR PIMP KBIN KBSU KBJW KBBN KBKN KBSW KBIN PGTP PGSU PGJW
PGBN PGKN PGSW PBIN PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW TPPS TPPJ TPBN TPPK TPSW TPPI TPBI
TPBS TPBJ TPBB TPBK TPBSW; instruments
LT T EXCR LIMPR TRIF PTHA LPIMP JPDK JPSU JPJW JPBN JPKN JPSW
LKBSU LKBJW LKBBN LKBKN LKBSW PDPP LPGTP LPGSU LPGJW LPGBN LPGKN LPGSW LSBI
LSTCK LPBIN LPBSU LPBJW LPBBN LPBKN LPBSW ARLL TPPL TPBL KBLL TPBS TPBJ TPBB
TPBK TPBSW; eq01:
MODEL ARLS = PGSU PJSU PDVS LARLS
dw ;
eq02: MODEL
ARLJ = LPGJW PJJW PDVJ LT dw
; eq03:
MODEL ALBN = LPGBN LPJBN PVBN LALBN
dw ;
eq04: MODEL
ARLK = PGKN PJKN PDVK LT LARLK dw
; eq05:
MODEL ALSW = LPGSW PJSW PVSW LALSW
dw ;
eq06: MODEL
IMPR = PIMP LTPBI LSTCK EXCR LT LIMPR dw
; eq07:
MODEL PIMP = TRIF PTHA LPIMP
dw ;
eq08: MODEL
KBSU = RPBIS JPSU LT LKBSU dw
; eq09:
MODEL KBJW = RPBIJ JPJW LT LKBJW
dw ;
eq10: MODEL
KBBN = RPBIBN JPBN LT LKBBN dw
; eq11:
MODEL KBKN = RPBIK JPKN LT LKBKN
dw ;
eq12: MODEL
KBSW = RPBISW JPSW LT LKBSW dw
; eq13:
MODEL PGTP = PDPP TPPI LASBI LSTCK PBIN MRJN LPGTP
dw ;
eq14: MODEL
PGSU = PDPP LTPPS RTPASS LSTCKS PBSU MRJNSU LT LPGSU dw
; eq15:
MODEL PGJW = PDPP TPPJ LSTCKJ PBJW MRJNJ LT LPGJW
dw ;
eq16: MODEL
PGBN = PDPP TPBN RTPASB PBBN MRJNBN LPGBN dw
; eq17:
MODEL PGKN = PDPP RTPASK PBKN LMRJNK T LPGKN
dw ;
eq18: MODEL
PGSW = PDPP TPSW PBSW LT LPGSW dw
; eq19:
MODEL PBIN = RQSK LPGTP LSBI LPIMP T LPBIN
dw ;
eq20: MODEL
PBSU = RTPBKS PGSU LSBIS PIMP T LPBSU dw
; eq21:
MODEL PBJW = RTPBKJ LPGJW LSBIJ PIMP T LPBJW
dw ;
eq22: MODEL
PBBN = RTPBKB LPGBN LLSBIB LPIMP T LPBBN dw
; eq23:
MODEL PBKN = RTPBKK LPGKN LLSBIK LPIMP T LPBKN
dw ;
eq24: MODEL
PBSW = RTPBKSW PGSW LSBISW PIMP T LPBSW dw
; eq25:
MODEL STCK = TPBI IMPR ASBI LSTCK
dw ;
ident01: identity
AREA = AREA; ident02:
identity TPPS = TPPS;
ident03: identity
TPPJ = TPPJ; ident04:
identity TPBN = TPBN;
ident05: identity
TPPK = TPPK;
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
ident06: identity
TPSW = TPSW; ident07:
identity TPPI = TPPI;
ident08: identity
TPBI = TPBI; ident09:
identity KBIN = KBIN;
ident10: identity
QSBR = QSBR;
run
Lampiran 4. Hasil Pengolahan Data Model Ekonomi Perberasan Tahun 2004-2008
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ01
Dependent Variable ARLS
Label ARLS
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 287995.6 71998.90 8.32 .0001 Error 54 467086.2 8649.745
Corrected Total 58 756724.5 Root
MSE 93.00401 R‐Square 0.38141 Dependent
Mean 267.79606 Adj R‐Sq 0.33559 Coeff
Var 34.72942 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐94.2100 186.1143 ‐0.51 0.6148 Intercept
PGSU 1 0.076065 0.071436 1.06 0.2917 Harga Gabah Sumatera
PJSU 1 ‐0.01408 0.108668 ‐0.13 0.8974 Harga jagung Sumatera
PDVS 1 24.50495 14.57500 1.68 0.0985 Produktivitas Sumatera
LARLS 1 0.614898 0.111123 5.53 .0001 Lag Areal Sumatera
Durbin ‐Watson 1.027839
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.432448
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ02
Dependent Variable ARLJ
Label ARLJ
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 1532545 383136.3 3.91 0.0074 Error 54 5294867 98053.09
Corrected Total 58 6827412 Root
MSE 313.13430 R‐Square 0.22447 Dependent
Mean 548.48088 Adj R‐Sq 0.16702 Coeff
Var 57.09120 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 2484.534 2364.088 1.05 0.2980 Intercept LPGJW 1 0.305848 0.193298 1.58 0.1194 Lag Harga
Gabah Petani Jawa
PJJW 1 ‐1.74044 0.527909 ‐3.30 0.0017 Harga jagung Jawa
PDVJ 1 48.77752 445.9958 0.11 0.9133 Produktivitas Jawa
LT 1 ‐248.431 99.64408 ‐2.49 0.0158 Log Tren Waktu Durbin‐Watson 0.795997
Number of Observations 59 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.579357
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ03
Dependent Variable ALBN
Label ALBN
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 73347.41 18336.85 9.15 .0001 Error 54 108229.4 2004.249
Corrected Total 58 181576.8 Root MSE 44.76884 R‐Square 0.40395
Dependent Mean 71.96859 Adj R‐Sq 0.35979 Coeff Var 62.20608
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 ‐109.270 145.7081 ‐0.75 0.4566 Intercept LPGBN 1 0.039923 0.040398 0.99 0.3274 Lag Harga
Gabah Petani Bali
Nusa Tenggara
LPJBN 1 ‐0.08877 0.069140 ‐1.28 0.2047 Lag Harga Jagung
Bali dan Nusa Tenggara
PVBN 1 46.38473 28.75011 1.61 0.1125 Produktivitas Bali
dan Nusa Tenggara
LALBN 1 0.668455 0.112862 5.92 .0001 Lag areal panen
Bali dan Nusa Tenggara
Durbin ‐Watson 1.479036
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.254243
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ04
Dependent Variable ARLK
Label ARLK
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 24667.41 4933.482 4.31 0.0023
Error 53 60599.43 1143.385 Corrected Total 58 84514.24
Root MSE 33.81398 R‐Square 0.28930
Dependent Mean 75.52966 Adj R‐Sq 0.22225
Coeff Var 44.76914
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 2.574190 111.3304 0.02 0.9816 Intercept PGKN 1 0.028262 0.019068 1.48 0.1442 Harga Gabah
Petani Kalimantan
PJKN 1 ‐0.05554 0.035286 ‐1.57 0.1214 Harga Jagung Kalimantan
PDVK 1 44.66340 38.06451 1.17 0.2459 Produktivitas Kalimantan
LT 1 ‐18.8900 9.650731 ‐1.96 0.0556 Log Tren Waktu LARLK 1 0.462995 0.118623 3.90 0.0003 Lag areal
panen Kalimantan
Durbin ‐Watson 1.535799
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.226603
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ05
Dependent Variable ALSW
Label ALSW
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 53294.96 13323.74 4.68 0.0026
Error 54 153771.2 2847.614 Corrected Total 58 207066.1
Root MSE 53.36304 R‐Square 0.25738
Dependent Mean 109.06688 Adj R‐Sq 0.20237
Coeff Var 48.92690
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 ‐860.079 523.3185 ‐1.64 0.1061 Intercept LPGSW 1 0.022835 0.017350 1.32 0.1937 Lag Harga
Gabah Petani
Sulawesi PJSW 1 ‐0.00005 0.069684 ‐0.00 0.9995 Harga jagung
Sulawesi PVSW 1 202.2507 112.1936 1.80 0.0770 Produkstivitas
Sulawesi LALSW 1 0.433254 0.119481 3.63 0.0006 Lag Areal
Panen Sulawesi
Durbin ‐Watson 1.679743
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.148471
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ06
Dependent Variable IMPR
Label Jumlah Impor Beras Indonesia
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 46555.90 7759.316 6.38 .0001 Error 52 63246.56 1216.280
Corrected Total 58 108629.7 Root
MSE 34.87521 R‐Square 0.42400 Dependent
Mean 41.07725 Adj R‐Sq 0.35753 Coeff
Var 84.90151 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 212.4910 93.98369 2.26 0.0280 Intercept PIMP 1 ‐0.01587 0.007532 ‐2.11 0.0399 Harga Impor
Beras Indonesia
LTPBI 1 ‐0.00178 0.002892 ‐0.62 0.5400 Lag Produksi Beras
LSTCK 1 ‐0.00767 0.011680 ‐0.66 0.5144 Lag stok EXCR 1 ‐0.01419 0.007248 ‐1.96 0.0556 Nilai Tukar Rp
terhadap US Dollar
LT 1 ‐0.35596 10.92909 ‐0.03 0.9741 Log Tren Waktu LIMPR 1 0.255731 0.132913 1.92 0.0598 Lag Jumlah
Impor Beras
Indonesia Durbin
‐Watson 2.208159 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.1098
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ07
Dependent Variable PIMP
Label Harga Impor Beras Indonesia
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 35350869 11783623 198.29 .0001
Error 55 3268522 59427.67 Corrected Total 58 38619391
Root MSE 243.77791 R‐Square 0.91537
Dependent Mean 3501.14486 Adj R‐Sq 0.91075
Coeff Var 6.96281
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐284.194 541.2066 ‐0.53 0.6016 Intercept
TRIF 1 1.199330 1.116704 1.07 0.2875 Tarif Impor PTHA 1 1.290764 0.130771 9.87 .0001 Harga Beras
Thailand LPIMP 1 0.063863 0.055613 1.15 0.2558 Lag Harga
Beras Impor
Indonesia Durbin
‐Watson 0.515193 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation 0.726988
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ08
Dependent Variable KBSU
Label Konsumsi Beras Sumatera
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1042960 260739.9 343.34 .0001
Error 54 41008.55 759.4176 Corrected Total 58 1083968
Root MSE 27.55753 R‐Square 0.96217
Dependent Mean 5700.94844 Adj R‐Sq 0.95937
Coeff Var 0.48339
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 82.48459 491.2290 0.17 0.8673 Intercept RPBIS 1 ‐0.10858 0.029280 ‐3.71 0.0005 Rasio antara
Income per kapita dan
Harga Beras Sumatera
JPSU 1 36.77865 13.48615 2.73 0.0086 Jumlah Penduduk
Sumatera LT 1 ‐9.18270 17.63885 ‐0.52 0.6048 Log Tren Waktu
LKBSU 1 0.751593 0.067018 11.21 .0001 Lag Konsumsi Beras
Sumatera Durbin
‐Watson 2.475473 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.24228
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ09
Dependent Variable KBJW
Label Konsumsi Beras Jawa
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 2945628 736407.1 85.04 .0001
Error 54 467592.5 8659.121 Corrected Total 58 3413221
Root MSE 93.05440 R‐Square 0.86301
Dependent Mean 13056.0846 Adj R‐Sq 0.85286
Coeff Var 0.71273
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐3022.39 2165.606 ‐1.40 0.1685 Intercept
RPBIJ 1 ‐0.13033 0.047989 ‐2.72 0.0089 Rasio antara Income
per kapita dan Harga Beras
Jawa JPJW 1 48.35321 18.64854 2.59 0.0122 Jumlah
Penduduk Jawa
LT 1 ‐108.316 46.29890 ‐2.34 0.0230 Log Tren Waktu LKBJW 1 0.807872 0.065514 12.33 .0001 Lag Konsumsi
Beras Jawa Durbin
‐Watson 2.209403 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.10821
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ10
Dependent Variable KBBN
Label Konsumsi Beras Bali Nusa Tenggara
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 70010.02 17502.51 136.75 .0001 Error 54 6911.626 127.9931
Corrected Total 58 76921.65 Root
MSE 11.31340 R‐Square 0.91015 Dependent
Mean 1467.63699 Adj R‐Sq 0.90349 Coeff
Var 0.77086 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 30.32915 103.0358 0.29 0.7696 Intercept RPBIBN 1 ‐0.00984 0.002909 ‐3.38 0.0013 Rasio antara
Income per kapita dan
Harga BerasBali NT
JPBN 1 42.51397 11.51743 3.69 0.0005 Jumlah Penduduk
Bali dan Nusa
Tenggara LT 1 ‐10.5026 5.901971 ‐1.78 0.0808 Log Tren Waktu
LKBBN 1 0.692698 0.076547 9.05 .0001 Lag Konsumsi Beras
Bali Nusa Tenggara
Durbin ‐Watson 2.154924
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.07985
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ11
Dependent Variable KBKN
Label Konsumsi Beras Kalimantan
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 154249.2 38562.31 625.49 .0001
Error 54 3329.175 61.65139 Corrected Total 58 157578.4
Root MSE 7.85184 R‐Square 0.97887 Dependent Mean 1323.58713 Adj R‐Sq 0.97731
Coeff Var 0.59322 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐219.959 71.27333 ‐3.09 0.0032 Intercept
RPBIK 1 ‐0.00249 0.007768 ‐0.32 0.7494 Rasio antara Income
per kapita Kalimantan dan
Harga Beras
Kalimantan JPKN 1 44.83534 12.23330 3.67 0.0006 Jumlah
Penduduk Kalimantan
LT 1 ‐2.95202 2.571710 ‐1.15 0.2561 Log Tren Waktu LKBKN 1 0.744760 0.084373 8.83 .0001 Lag Konsumsi
Beras Kalimantan
Durbin ‐Watson 1.907929
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.042409
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ12
Dependent Variable KBSW
Label Lag Konsumsi Beras Sulawesi
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 159026.8 39756.70 68.48 .0001 Error 54 31350.92 580.5725
Corrected Total 58 190377.7 Root MSE 24.09507 R‐Square 0.83532
Dependent Mean 1786.68144 Adj R‐Sq 0.82312 Coeff Var 1.34859
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 ‐339.159 493.2343 ‐0.69 0.4946 Intercept RPBISW 1 ‐0.03273 0.011921 ‐2.75 0.0082 Rasio antara
Income per kapita dan
Harga Beras Sulawesi
JPSW 1 71.74569 35.08378 2.04 0.0457 Jumlah Penduduk
Sulawesi LT 1 ‐18.9818 17.48850 ‐1.09 0.2826 Log Tren Waktu
LKBSW 1 0.674467 0.084562 7.98 .0001 Lag Konsumsi Beras
Sulawesi Durbin
‐Watson 1.994226 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation 0.002263
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ13
Dependent Variable PGTP
Label Harga Gabah Petani Indonesia
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 7 2170714 310102.0 296.28 .0001 Error 51 53378.38 1046.635
Corrected Total 58 2268518 Root
MSE 32.35174 R‐Square 0.97600 Dependent
Mean 1472.16868 Adj R‐Sq 0.97271 Coeff
Var 2.19756 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 217.5604 97.98529 2.22 0.0309 Intercept
PDPP 1 0.005423 0.052944 0.10 0.9188 Harga Pembelian
Pemerintah TPPI 1 ‐0.01497 0.001782 ‐8.40 .0001 Produksi padi
Indonesia LASBI 1 0.038207 0.029806 1.28 0.2057 Lag Jumlah
Pengadaan Gabah Perum
Bulog LSTCK 1 ‐0.02996 0.014366 ‐2.09 0.0420 Lag stok
PBIN 1 0.456953 0.034268 13.33 .0001 Harga Beras Indonesia
MRJN 1 ‐0.28773 0.026105 ‐11.02 .0001 Marjin LPGTP 1 0.294421 0.040667 7.24 .0001 Lag Harga
Gabah Petani
Indonesia Durbin
‐Watson 1.271649 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation 0.33202
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ14
Dependent Variable PGSU
Label Harga Gabah Petani Sumaatera
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 8 1705553 213194.1 205.19 .0001
Error 50 51949.61 1038.992 Corrected Total 58 1772353
Root MSE 32.23340 R‐Square 0.97044
Dependent Mean 1540.35996 Adj R‐Sq 0.96571
Coeff Var 2.09259
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 189.7756 122.0376 1.56 0.1262 Intercept PDPP 1 0.000469 0.056894 0.01 0.9935 Harga
Pembelian Pemerintah
LTPPS 1 ‐0.02680 0.009048 ‐2.96 0.0047 Lag Produksi padi
Sumatera RTPASS 1 ‐4.68E‐6 0.000108 ‐0.04 0.9656 Rasio Produksi
Padi dan Lag Pengadaan
Sumatera LSTCKS 1 ‐0.07186 0.066909 ‐1.07 0.2880 Lag stok
Sumatera PBSU 1 0.401566 0.038198 10.51 .0001 Harga Beras
Sumatera MRJNSU 1 ‐0.32533 0.027046 ‐12.03 .0001 Marjin
Sumatera LT 1 37.06034 14.44806 2.57 0.0134 Log Tren Waktu
LPGSU 1 0.355485 0.044058 8.07 .0001 Lag Harga Gabah
Petani Sumatera
Durbin ‐Watson 1.692581
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.15122
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ15
Dependent Variable PGJW
Label Harga Gabah Petani Jawa
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 7 2302426 328918.0 271.38 .0001 Error 51 61813.32 1212.026
Corrected Total 58 2431876 Root
MSE 34.81416 R‐Square 0.97385 Dependent
Mean 1459.09433 Adj R‐Sq 0.97027 Coeff
Var 2.38601 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 ‐59.5129 78.15502 ‐0.76 0.4499 Intercept
PDPP 1 0.000042 0.056601 0.00 0.9994 Harga Pembelian
Pemerintah TPPJ 1 ‐0.02095 0.002961 ‐7.08 .0001 Produksi padi
Jawa LSTCKJ 1 ‐0.10493 0.168421 ‐0.62 0.5361 Lag stok Jawa
PBJW 1 0.546820 0.030537 17.91 .0001 Harga Beras Jawa
MRJNJ 1 ‐0.30277 0.027567 ‐10.98 .0001 Marjin Jawa LT 1 58.53385 13.66153 4.28 .0001 Log Tren Waktu
LPGJW 1 0.206291 0.030419 6.78 .0001 Lag Harga Gabah
Petani Jawa Durbin
‐Watson 1.014919 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation 0.482519
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ16
Dependent Variable PGBN
Label Harga Gabah Petani Bali Nusa Tenggara
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 1627068 271178.1 148.93 .0001 Error 52 94685.38 1820.873
Corrected Total 58 1736111 Root
MSE 42.67168 R‐Square 0.94501 Dependent
Mean 1346.18679 Adj R‐Sq 0.93866 Coeff
Var 3.16982 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 98.93058 82.22790 1.20 0.2344 Intercept
PDPP 1 0.003945 0.064379 0.06 0.9514 Harga Pembelian
Pemerintah TPBN 1 ‐0.08286 0.023613 ‐3.51 0.0009 Produksi padi
Bali dan Nusa
Tenggara RTPASB 1 ‐0.00096 0.001416 ‐0.68 0.5007 Rasio Lag
Produksi Padi Bali NT
dan Pengadaan
Perum Bulog
PBBN 1 0.453366 0.035161 12.89 .0001 Harga Beras Bali
Nusa Tenggara MRJNBN 1 ‐0.26479 0.035560 ‐7.45 .0001 Marjin Bali
dan Nusa Tenggara
LPGBN 1 0.283070 0.044796 6.32 .0001 Lag Harga Gabah
Petani Bali Nusa
Tenggara Durbin
‐Watson 1.929723 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation 0.020337
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ17
Dependent Variable PGKN
Label Harga Gabah Petani Kalimantan
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 4267193 711198.8 48.29 .0001 Error 52 765849.8 14727.88
Corrected Total 58 4964214 Root MSE 121.35848 R‐Square 0.84784
Dependent Mean 1650.59044 Adj R‐Sq 0.83028 Coeff Var 7.35243
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 ‐216.163 255.4341 ‐0.85 0.4013 Intercept PDPP 1 0.014016 0.206204 0.07 0.9461 Harga
Pembelian Pemerintah
RTPASK 1 ‐0.00544 0.003950 ‐1.38 0.1747 Rasio Selisih Lag
Produksi Padi
Kalimantan dan Pengadaan
Perum Bulog
PBKN 1 0.647339 0.113343 5.71 .0001 Harga Beras Kalimantan
LMRJNK 1 ‐0.10293 0.106344 ‐0.97 0.3376 Lag Marjin Kalimantan
T 1 ‐1.81986 4.729896 ‐0.38 0.7020 Tren waktu LPGKN 1 0.133373 0.118159 1.13 0.2642 Lag Harga
Gabah Petani
Kalimantan Durbin
‐Watson 2.110419 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.05911
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ18
Dependent Variable PGSW
Label Harga Gabah Petani Sulawesi
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 866544.3 173308.9 34.78 .0001 Error 53 264107.1 4983.153
Corrected Total 58 1081786 Root
MSE 70.59145 R‐Square 0.76641 Dependent
Mean 1340.12574 Adj R‐Sq 0.74437 Coeff
Var 5.26752 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 509.0921 120.8797 4.21 .0001 Intercept
PDPP 1 0.007296 0.105555 0.07 0.9452 Harga Pembelian
Pemerintah TPSW 1 ‐0.14177 0.040900 ‐3.47 0.0011 Produksi padi
Sulawesi PBSW 1 0.225276 0.047638 4.73 .0001 Harga Beras
Sulawesi LT 1 ‐55.3158 30.12316 ‐1.84 0.0719 Log Tren Waktu
LPGSW 1 0.268092 0.090599 2.96 0.0046 Lag Harga Gabah
Petani Sulawesi
Durbin ‐Watson 1.394029
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.2854
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ19
Dependent Variable PBIN
Label Harga Beras Indonesia
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 6936477 1156079 58.26 .0001 Error 52 1031890 19844.05
Corrected Total 58 7968367 Root
MSE 140.86890 R‐Square 0.87050 Dependent
Mean 3071.40134 Adj R‐Sq 0.85556 Coeff
Var 4.58647 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 504.4792 377.9364 1.33 0.1877 Intercept
RQSK 1 ‐0.02523 0.014337 ‐1.76 0.0843 Selisih penawaran
dan konsumsi Indonesia
LPGTP 1 0.778859 0.212864 3.66 0.0006 Lag Harga Gabah
Petani Indonesia
LSBI 1 ‐0.64438 0.315596 ‐2.04 0.0463 Jumlah Penyaluran
Beras Perum Bulog
LPIMP 1 0.031309 0.029454 1.06 0.2927 Lag Harga Beras
Impor Indonesia
T 1 ‐26.9851 5.179762 ‐5.21 .0001 Tren waktu LPBIN 1 0.364660 0.098418 3.71 0.0005 Lag Harga
Beras Indonesia
Durbin ‐Watson 1.566009
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.210415
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ20
Dependent Variable PBSU
Label Harga Beras Sumatera
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 3531953 588658.8 44.97 .0001 Error 52 680707.8 13090.53
Corrected Total 58 4178936 Root MSE 114.41387 R‐Square 0.83841
Dependent Mean 3426.99772 Adj R‐Sq 0.81977 Coeff Var 3.33860
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 806.9153 240.7781 3.35 0.0015 Intercept RTPBKS 1 ‐61.7230 336.7655 ‐0.18 0.8553 Rasio lag
produksi beras dan
konsumsi Sumatera
PGSU 1 0.784014 0.159106 4.93 .0001 Harga Gabah Petani
Sumaatera LSBIS 1 ‐1.27678 1.129675 ‐1.13 0.2636 Lag penyaluran
Sumatera PIMP 1 0.026101 0.028109 0.93 0.3574 Harga Impor
Beras Indonesia
T 1 ‐18.9231 5.656508 ‐3.35 0.0015 Tren waktu LPBSU 1 0.456558 0.111952 4.08 0.0002 Lag Harga
Beras Sumatera
Durbin ‐Watson 1.213241
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.389582
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ21
Dependent Variable PBJW
Label Harga Beras Jawa
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 5420271 903378.5 40.42 .0001 Error 52 1162049 22347.10
Corrected Total 58 6578712 Root
MSE 149.48947 R‐Square 0.82346 Dependent
Mean 3019.99621 Adj R‐Sq 0.80309 Coeff
Var 4.94999 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1216.485 251.7658 4.83 .0001 Intercept
RTPBKJ 1 ‐614.017 292.8745 ‐2.10 0.0409 Rasio produksi beras dan
konsumsi Jawa
LPGJW 1 0.278252 0.145337 1.91 0.0611 Lag Harga Gabah
Petani Jawa LSBIJ 1 ‐1.39743 0.672249 ‐2.08 0.0426 Penyaluran
Jawa PIMP 1 0.023139 0.046147 0.50 0.6182 Harga Impor
Beras Indonesia
T 1 ‐25.4168 5.059062 ‐5.02 .0001 Tren waktu LPBJW 1 0.581026 0.089586 6.49 .0001 Harga Beras
Jawa Durbin‐Watson 1.308556
Number of Observations 59 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.324129
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ22
Dependent Variable PBBN
Label Harga Beras Bali Nusa Tenggara
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 8718002 1453000 39.24 .0001 Error 52 1925256 37024.16
Corrected Total 58 10643259 Root
MSE 192.41663 R‐Square 0.81911 Dependent
Mean 2929.60814 Adj R‐Sq 0.79824 Coeff
Var 6.56800 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1299.909 360.5129 3.61 0.0007 Intercept
RTPBKB 1 ‐388.188 258.2111 ‐1.50 0.1388 Rasio produksi beras dan
konsumsi Bali dan Nusa
Tenggara LPGBN 1 0.006737 0.289810 0.02 0.9815 Lag Harga
Gabah Petani Bali
Nusa Tenggara
LLSBIB 1 ‐24.4581 13.35384 ‐1.83 0.0728 Lag penyaluran Bali dan Nusa
Tenggara LPIMP 1 0.01620 0.046108 ‐0.35 0.7267 Lag Harga
Beras Impor
Indonesia T 1 ‐20.3042 9.930638 ‐2.04 0.0460 Tren waktu
LPBBN 1 0.686085 0.093964 7.30 .0001 Lag Harga Beras
Bali Nusa Tenggara
Durbin ‐Watson 1.711916
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.132834
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ23
Dependent Variable PBKN
Label Harga Beras Kalimantan
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 6750873 1125145 64.59 .0001
Error 52 905845.2 17420.10 Corrected Total 58 7656718
Root MSE 131.98523 R‐Square 0.88169
Dependent Mean 2712.27314 Adj R‐Sq 0.86804
Coeff Var 4.86622
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 1459.228 143.4059 10.18 .0001 Intercept RTPBKK 1 ‐182.486 298.9526 ‐0.61 0.5442 Rasio produksi
beras dan konsumsi
Kalimantan LPGKN 1 0.486377 0.123940 3.92 0.0003 Lag Harga
Gabah Petani
Kalimantan LLSBIK 1 ‐8.35830 2.421773 ‐3.45 0.0011 Lag penyaluran
Kalimantan LPIMP 1 0.03016 0.018566 ‐1.62 0.1103 Lag Harga
Beras Impor
Indonesia T 1 ‐14.2202 3.540507 ‐4.02 0.0002 Tren waktu
LPBKN 1 0.303675 0.103530 2.93 0.0050 Lag Harga Beras
Kalimantan Durbin
‐Watson 1.62885 Number
of Observations 59 First
‐Order Autocorrelation 0.169144
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ24
Dependent Variable PBSW
Label Harga Beras Sulawesi
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 3940332 656722.1 29.53 .0001
Error 52 1156423 22238.90 Corrected Total 58 5115217
Root MSE 149.12713 R‐Square 0.77311 Dependent Mean 2706.30904 Adj R‐Sq 0.74693
Coeff Var 5.51035 Parameter
Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 228.5497 384.7593 0.59 0.5551 Intercept
RTPBKSW 1 ‐322.802 254.1838 ‐1.27 0.2098 Rasio produksi beras dan
konsumsi Sulawesi
PGSW 1 0.765920 0.336857 2.27 0.0271 Harga Gabah Petani
Sulawesi LSBISW 1 ‐11.0990 5.623499 ‐1.97 0.0537 Lag penyaluran
Sulawesi PIMP 1 0.037074 0.039916 0.93 0.3573 Harga Impor
Beras Indonesia
T 1 ‐24.8084 3.905138 ‐6.35 .0001 Tren waktu LPBSW 1 0.665513 0.103931 6.40 .0001 Lag Harga
Beras Sulawesi
Durbin ‐Watson 1.240868
Number of Observations 59
First ‐Order Autocorrelation 0.329034
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two ‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EQ25
Dependent Variable STCK
Label Stok Operasional Perum Bulog
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 13614341 3403585 487.07 .0001
Error 54 377345.2 6987.875 Corrected Total 58 13987007
Root MSE 83.59351 R‐Square 0.97303 Dependent Mean 1516.99653 Adj R‐Sq 0.97103
Coeff Var 5.51046 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 ‐120.598 53.56592 ‐2.25 0.0285 Intercept TPBI 1 ‐0.00289 0.008089 ‐0.36 0.7219 Total Produksi
Beras Indonesia
IMPR 1 0.869165 0.298901 2.91 0.0053 Jumlah Impor Beras
Indonesia ASBI 1 0.941430 0.071978 13.08 .0001 Jumlah
Pengadaan Gabah Perum
Bulog LSTCK 1 0.954247 0.024976 38.21 .0001 Lag stok
Durbin‐Watson 1.615374 Number of Observations 59
First‐Order Autocorrelatio
Lampiran 5. Program Validasi dan Simulasi Kebijakan Tahun 2004-2008 Agregat
data
data beras; set
work.piter; if
asbi= then
asbi=
0.01
; if
asbis= then
asbis=
0.01
; if
asbij= then
asbij=
0.01
; if
asbib= then
asbib=
0.01
; if
asbik= then
asbik=
0.01 ;
if asbiss=
then asbiss=
0.01 ;
AREA = ARLS + ARLJ + ALBN + ARLK + ALSW + ARLL;
LPJBN =lagPJBN;
KBSU =KKSUJPSU;
KBJW =KKJWJPJW;
KBBN =KKBNJPBN;
KBKN =KKKNJPKN;
KBSW =KKSWJPSW;
KBIN =KOBIJPDK;
KBLL =KBIN‐KBSU‐KBJW‐KBBN‐KBKN;
LMRJNK = lagMRJNK;
QSBR = TPBI + IMPR + STCK + IMPR ‐BSPL ‐ EXPR;
TPPS = ARLSPDVS;
TPPJ = ARLJPDVJ;
TPBN = ALBNPVBN;
TPPK = ARLKPDVK;
TPSW = ALSWPVSW;
TPPI = TPPS + TPPJ + TPBN + TPPK + TPSW + TPPL;
TPBI = TPBS + TPBJ + TPBB + TPBK + TPBSW + TPBL;
KBIN = KBSU + KBJW + KBBN + KBKN + KBSW + KBLL;
LARLS=lagARLS; LALBN=lagALBN;
LARLK=lagARLK; LALSW=lagALSW;
LAREA=lagAREA; LASBI=lagASBI;
LIMPR=lagIMPR; LKBSU=lagKBSU;
LKBJW=lagKBJW; LKBBN=lagKBBN;
LKBKN=lagKBKN; LKBSW=lagKBSW;
LKBIN=lagKBIN; LPBBN=lagPBBN;
LPBIN=lagPBIN; LPBJW=lagPBJW;
LPBKN=lagPBKN; LPBSU=lagPBSU;
LPBSW=lagPBSW; LPGBN=lagPGBN;
LPGJW=lagPGJW; LPGKN=lagPGKN;
LPGSU=lagPGSU; LPGSW=lagPGSW;
LPGTP=lagPGTP; LPIMP=lagPIMP;
LSTCK=lagSTCK; LSTCKJ
=lagSTCKJ; LSTCKS
=lagSTCKS; LT
=logT;
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
LTPPI=lagTPPI; LTPPS=lagTPPS;
LTPPJ=lagTPPJ; LTPBN=lagTPBN;
LTPPK=lagTPPK; LTPBI
=lagTPBI; LTPBS
=lagTPBS; RPBI
=PBININCK; RPBIS
=PBSUINCS; RPBIJ
=PBJWINCJ; RPBIBN=PBBNICBN;
RPBIK =PBKNICKN;
RPBISW =PBSWICSW;
LASBIS =lag ASBIS;
LASBIJ =lag ASBIJ;
LASBIK =lagASBIK;
LLSBIB =lagLSBIB;
LLSBIK =lagLSBIK;
RTPAS =TPPI‐LTPPILASBI;
RTPASS =TPPSLASBIS;
RTPASB =LTPBNASBIB;
RTPASK =LTPPK‐TPPKLASBIK;
RQSK =QSBR‐KBIN;
RTPBKS =LTPBSKBSU;
RTPBKJ =TPBJLKBJW;
RTPBKB =TPBBKBBN;
RTPBKK =TPBKKBKN;
RTPBKSW=TPBSWKBSW; ;
array bagi PGTP INCK INCS INCJ ICBN ICKN ICSW
EXCR TRIF PTHA PBIN PIMP PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PJSU PJJW
PJBN PJKN PJSW PJTP; do
over bagi;
bagi=bagiihk; bagi=bagiihk;
if
2
= t =
5
or
14
= t =
17
or
26
= t =
29
or
38
= t =
41
or
50
= t =
53
then panen=
1
; else
panen=
2
; if
panen=1; PDPP
= PDPP1.05; TRIF
= TRIF1.05; LSBI=LSBI1.05;
LSBIS=LSBIS1.05; LSBIJ=LSBI
1.05; LSBIB=LSBIB1.05;
LSBIK=LSBIK1.05; LSBISW=LSBISW1.05;
end ;
Proc simnlin
DATA=BERAS simulate stats outpredict theil;
endogenous PGTP PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PBIN PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW STCK IMPR PIMP
TPPS TPPJ TPBN TPPK TPSW TPPI KBIN KBSU KBJW KBBN KBKN KBSW KBIN AREA ARLS ARLJ ALBN ARLK
ALSW QSBR;
instruments LT
T EXCR TPBI TPBS TPBJ TPBB TPBK TPBSW LIMPR TRIF PTHA LPIMP JPDK JPSU
JPJW JPBN JPKN JPSW LKBSU LKBJW LKBBN LKBKN LKBSW PDPP LPGTP LPGSU LPGJW LPGBN LPGKN
LPGSW LSBI LSTCK LPBIN LPBSU LPBJW LPBBN LPBKN LPBSW ARLL TPPL TPBL KBLL;
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Parameter a0
‐
94.2100
a1
0.076065
a2 ‐
0.01408
a3
24.50495
a4
0.614898
b0
2484.534
b1
0.305848
b2 ‐
1.74044
b3
48.77752
b4 ‐
248.431
c0 ‐
109.270
c1
0.039923
c2 ‐
0.08877
c3
46.38473
c4
0.668455
d0
2.574190
d1
0.028262
d2 ‐
0.05554
d3
44.66340
d4 ‐
18.8900
d5
0.462995
e0 ‐
860.079
e1
0.022835
e2 ‐
0.00005
e3
202.2507
e4
0.433254
f0 212.4910
f1 ‐
0.01587
f2 ‐
0.00178
f3 ‐
0.00767
f4 ‐
0.01419
f5 ‐
0.35596
f6
0.255731
g0 ‐
284.194
g1
1.199330
g2
1.290764
g3
0.063863
h0
82.48459
h1 ‐
0.10858
h2
36.77865
h3 ‐
9.18270
h4
0.751593
i0 ‐
3022.3900
i1 ‐
0.1303
i2
48.3532
i3 ‐
108.3160
i4
0.8079
j0
30.32915
j1 ‐
0.00984
j2
42.51397
j3 ‐
10.5026
j4
0.692698
k0 ‐
219.959
k1 ‐
0.00249
k2
44.83534
k3 ‐
2.95202
k4
0.744760
l0 ‐
339.159
l1 ‐
0.03273
l2
71.74569
l3 ‐
18.9818
l4
0.674467
m0
217.5604
m1
0.005423
m2 ‐
0.01497
m3
0.038207
m4 ‐
0.02996
m5
0.456953
m6 ‐
0.28773
m7
0.294421
n0
189.7756
n1
0.000469
n2 ‐
0.02680
n3 ‐
4.68E ‐6
n4 ‐
0.07186
n5
0.401566
n6 ‐
0.32533
n7
37.06034
n8
0.355485
o0 ‐
59.5129
o1
0.000042
o2 ‐
0.02095
o3 ‐
0.10493
o4
0.546820
o5 ‐
0.30277
o6
58.53385
o7
0.206291
p0
98.93058
p1
0.003945
p2 ‐
0.08286
p3 ‐
0.00096
p4
0.453366
p5 ‐
0.26479
p6
0.283070
q0 ‐
216.163
q1
0.014016
q2 ‐
0.00544
q3
0.647339
q4 ‐
0.10293
q5 ‐
1.81986
q6
0.133373
r0 509.0921
r1
0.007296
r2 ‐
0.14177
r3
0.225276
r4 ‐
55.3158
r5
0.268092
s0 504.4792
s1 ‐
0.02523
s2
0.778859
s3 ‐
0.064438
s4
0.031309
s5 ‐
26.9851
s6
0.364660
t0
806.9153
t1 ‐
61.7230
t2
0.784014
t3 ‐
0.27678
t4
0.026101
t5 ‐
18.9231
t6
0.456558
u0
1216.485
u1 ‐
614.017
u2
0.278252
u3 ‐
1.39743
u4
0.023139
u5 ‐
25.4168
u6
0.581026
v0
1299.909
v1 ‐
388.188
v2
0.006737
v3 ‐
24.4581
v4
0.01620
v5 ‐
20.3042
v6
0.686085
w0
1459.228
w1 ‐
182.486
w2
0.486377
w3 ‐
8.35830
w4
0.03016
w5 ‐
14.2202
w6
0.303675
x0 228.5497
x1 ‐
322.802
x2
0.765920
x3 ‐
11.0990
x4
0.037074
x5 ‐
24.8084
x6
0.665513
y0 ‐
120.598
y1 ‐
0.00289
y2
0.869165
y3
0.941430
y4
0.954247
; ARLS
= a0 + a1PGSU + a2PJSU + a3PDVS + a4LARLS ; ARLJ
= b0 + b1LPGJW + b2PJJW + b3PDVJ + b4 LT
; ALBN
= c0 + c1LPGBN + c2LPJBN + c3PVBN + c4LALBN ; ARLK
= d0 + d1PGKN + d2PJKN + d3PDVK + d4 LT
+ d5LARLK ; ALSW
= e0 + e1LPGSW + e2PJSW + e3PVSW + e4LALSW ; IMPR
= f0 + f1PIMP + f2LTPBI + f3LSTCK + f4EXCR + f5 LT
+ f6LIMPR ; PIMP
= g0 + g1TRIF + g2PTHA + g3LPIMP ; KBSU
= h0 + h1PBSUINCS + h2JPSU + h3 LT
+ h4LKBSU ; KBJW
= i0 + i1PBJWINCJ + i2JPJW + i3 LT
+ i4LKBJW ; KBBN
= j0 + j1PBBNICBN + j2JPBN + j3 LT
+ j4LKBBN ; KBKN
= k0 + k1PBKNICKN + k2JPKN + k3 LT
+ k4LKBKN ; KBSW
= l0 + l1PBSWICSW + l2JPSW + l3 LT
+ l4LKBSW ; PGTP
= m0 + m1PDPP + m2TPPI + m3LASBI + m4LSTCK + m5PBIN + m6MRJN + m7LPGTP; PGSU
= n0 + n1PDPP + n2LTPPS + n3TPPSLASBIS + n4LSTCKS + n5PBSU + n6MRJNSU + n7
LT + n8LPGSU;
PGJW = o0 + o1PDPP + o2TPPJ + o3LSTCKJ + o4PBJW + o5MRJNJ + o6
LT +
o7LPGJW; PGBN
= p0 + p1PDPP + p2TPBN + p3LTPBNASBIB + p4PBBN + p5MRJNBN + p6LPGBN ; PGKN
= q0 + q1PDPP + q2LTPPK‐TPPKLASBIK + q3PBKN + q4LMRJNK + q5T + q6LPGKN
; PGSW
= r0 + r1PDPP + r2TPSW + r3PBSW + r4 LT
+ r5LPGSW ; PBIN
= s0 + s1QSBR‐KBIN + s2LPGTP + s3LSBI + s4LPIMP + s5T + s6LPBIN ; PBSU
= t0 + t1LTPBSKBSU + t2PGSU + t3LSBIS + t4PIMP + t5T + t6LPBSU ; PBJW
= u0 + u1TPBJLKBJW + u2LPGJW + u3LSBIJ + u4PIMP + u5T + u6LPBJW ; PBBN
= v0 + v1TPBBKBBN + v2LPGBN + v3LLSBIB + v4LPIMP + v5T + v6LPBBN ; PBKN
= w0 + w1TPBKKBKN + w2LPGKN + w3LLSBIK + w4LPIMP + w5T + w6LPBKN ; PBSW
= x0 + s1TPBSWKBSW + x2PGSW + x3LSBISW + x4PIMP + x5T + x6LPBSW ; STCK
= y0 + y1TPBI + y2IMPR + y3ASBI + y4LSTCK ; TPPS
= ARLSPDVS; TPPJ
= ARLJPDVJ; TPBN
= ALBNPVBN; TPPK
= ARLKPDVK;
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
TPSW = ALSWPVSW;
TPPI = TPPS + TPPJ + TPBN + TPPK + TPSW + TPPL;AREA = ARLS + ARLJ + ALBN + ARLK + ALSW +
ARLL; KBIN
= KBSU + KBJW + KBBN + KBKN + KBSW + KBLL; ASBI
= ASBIS + ASBIJ + ASBIB + ASBIK + ASBISS + ASBIL; QSBR
= TPBI + IMPR + STCK + IMPR ‐BSPL ‐ EXPR; LPJBN
=lagPJBN; LMRJNK
= lagMRJNK; LARLS=lagARLS;
LALBN=lagALBN; LARLK=lagARLK;
LALSW=lagALSW; LAREA=lagAREA;
LASBI=lagASBI; LIMPR=lagIMPR;
LKBSU=lagKBSU; LKBJW=lagKBJW;
LKBBN=lagKBBN; LKBKN=lagKBKN;
LKBSW=lagKBSW; LKBIN=lagKBIN;
LPBBN=lagPBBN; LPBIN=lagPBIN;
LPBJW=lagPBJW; LPBKN=lagPBKN;
LPBSU=lagPBSU; LPBSW=lagPBSW;
LPGBN=lagPGBN; LPGJW=lagPGJW;
LPGKN=lagPGKN; LPGSU=lagPGSU;
LPGSW=lagPGSW; LPGTP=lagPGTP;
LPIMP=lagPIMP; LSTCK=lagSTCK;
LSTCKJ =lagSTCKJ;
LSTCKS =lagSTCKS;
LT =logT;
LTPPI=lagTPPI; LTPPS=lagTPPS;
LTPPJ=lagTPPJ; LTPBN=lagTPBN;
LTPPK=lagTPPK; LTPBI
=lagTPBI; LTPBS=lagTPBS;
LASBIS =lag ASBIS;
LASBIJ =lag ASBIJ;
LASBIK =lagASBIK;
LLSBIB =lagLSBIB;
range Bulan
7
to
60
; run
;
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan
Proc
means ;
var RTPBKS RTPBKJ RTPBKB RTPBKK RQSK RTPASS RTPASB RTPASK LASBI RPBIK RPBISW ARLS ARLJ
ALBN ARLK ALSW AREA STCK LSTCK LSTCKS LSTCKJ LSBI LSBIS LSBIJ LLSBIB LLSBIK IMPR PIMP
LPIMP KBIN KBSU KBJW KBBN KBKN KBSW KBIN PGTP PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PBIN PBSU PBJW
PBBN PBKN PBSW TPPS TPPJ TPBN TPPK TPSW TPPI LTPPS TPBI TPBS TPBJ TPBB TPBK TPBSW PJSU
PJJW PJBN PJKN PJSW PDVS PDVJ PDVK PVSW LT T EXCR LIMPR TRIF PTHA LPIMP JPDK
JPSU JPJW JPBN JPKN JPSW LKBSU LKBJW LKBBN LKBKN LKBSW PDPP LPGTP LPGSU LPGJW LPGBN
LPGKN LPGSW LSBI LSTCK LPBIN LPBSU LPBJW LPBBN LPBKN LPBSW ARLL TPPL TPBL KBLL MRJN
MRJNSU MRJNJ MRJNBN MRJNK LMRJNK MRJNSW;
run
;
Lampiran 6. Program Validasi dan Simulasi Kebijakan Tahun 2004-2008 Periode I
data
data beras; set
work.piter; if
asbi= then
asbi=
0.01
; if
asbis= then
asbis=
0.01
; if
asbij= then
asbij=
0.01
; if
asbib= then
asbib=
0.01 ;
if asbik=
then asbik=
0.01 ;
if asbiss=
then asbiss=
0.01
; AREA
= ARLS + ARLJ + ALBN + ARLK + ALSW + ARLL; LPJBN
=lagPJBN; KBSU
=KKSUJPSU; KBJW
=KKJWJPJW; KBBN
=KKBNJPBN; KBKN
=KKKNJPKN; KBSW
=KKSWJPSW; KBIN
=KOBIJPDK; KBLL
=KBIN‐KBSU‐KBJW‐KBBN‐KBKN; LMRJNK
= lagMRJNK; QSBR
= TPBI + IMPR + STCK + IMPR ‐BSPL ‐ EXPR; TPPS
= ARLSPDVS; TPPJ
= ARLJPDVJ; TPBN
= ALBNPVBN; TPPK
= ARLKPDVK; TPSW
= ALSWPVSW; TPPI
= TPPS + TPPJ + TPBN + TPPK + TPSW + TPPL; TPBI
= TPBS + TPBJ + TPBB + TPBK + TPBSW + TPBL; KBIN
= KBSU + KBJW + KBBN + KBKN + KBSW + KBLL; LARLS=lagARLS;
LALBN=lagALBN; LARLK=lagARLK;
LALSW=lagALSW; LAREA=lagAREA;
LASBI=lagASBI; LIMPR=lagIMPR;
LKBSU=lagKBSU; LKBJW=lagKBJW;
LKBBN=lagKBBN; LKBKN=lagKBKN;
LKBSW=lagKBSW; LKBIN=lagKBIN;
LPBBN=lagPBBN; LPBIN=lagPBIN;
LPBJW=lagPBJW; LPBKN=lagPBKN;
LPBSU=lagPBSU; LPBSW=lagPBSW;
LPGBN=lagPGBN; LPGJW=lagPGJW;
LPGKN=lagPGKN; LPGSU=lagPGSU;
LPGSW=lagPGSW; LPGTP=lagPGTP;
LPIMP=lagPIMP; LSTCK=lagSTCK;
LSTCKJ =lagSTCKJ;
LSTCKS =lagSTCKS;
LT =logT;
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
LTPPI=lagTPPI; LTPPS=lagTPPS;
LTPPJ=lagTPPJ; LTPBN=lagTPBN;
LTPPK=lagTPPK; LTPBI
=lagTPBI; LTPBS
=lagTPBS; RPBI
=PBININCK; RPBIS
=PBSUINCS; RPBIJ
=PBJWINCJ; RPBIBN=PBBNICBN;
RPBIK =PBKNICKN;
RPBISW =PBSWICSW;
LASBIS =lag ASBIS;
LASBIJ =lag ASBIJ;
LASBIK =lagASBIK;
LLSBIB =lagLSBIB;
LLSBIK =lagLSBIK;
RTPAS =TPPI‐LTPPILASBI;
RTPASS =TPPSLASBIS;
RTPASB =LTPBNASBIB;
RTPASK =LTPPK‐TPPKLASBIK;
RQSK =QSBR‐KBIN;
RTPBKS =LTPBSKBSU;
RTPBKJ =TPBJLKBJW;
RTPBKB =TPBBKBBN;
RTPBKK =TPBKKBKN;
RTPBKSW=TPBSWKBSW; ;
array bagi PGTP INCK INCS INCJ ICBN ICKN ICSW
EXCR TRIF PTHA PBIN PIMP PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PJSU PJJW
PJBN PJKN PJSW PJTP; do
over bagi;
bagi=bagiihk; bagi=bagiihk;
if
2
= t =
5
or
14
= t =
17
or
26
= t =
29
or
38
= t =
41
or
50
= t =
53
then panen=
1
; else
panen=
2
; if
panen=1; PDPP
= PDPP1.05; TRIF
= TRIF1.05; LSBI=LSBI1.05;
LSBIS=LSBIS1.05; LSBIJ=LSBI
1.05; LSBIB=LSBIB1.05;
LSBIK=LSBIK1.05; LSBISW=LSBISW1.05;
end ;
Proc simnlin
DATA=BERAS simulate stats outpredict theil;
endogenous PGTP PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PBIN PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW STCK IMPR PIMP
TPPS TPPJ TPBN TPPK TPSW TPPI KBIN KBSU KBJW KBBN KBKN KBSW KBIN AREA ARLS ARLJ ALBN ARLK
ALSW QSBR;
instruments LT
T EXCR LIMPR TRIF PTHA LPIMP TPBI TPBS TPBJ TPBB TPBK TPBSW JPDK JPSU
JPJW JPBN JPKN JPSW LKBSU LKBJW LKBBN LKBKN LKBSW PDPP LPGTP LPGSU LPGJW LPGBN LPGKN
LPGSW LSBI LSTCK LPBIN LPBSU LPBJW LPBBN LPBKN LPBSW ARLL TPPL TPBL KBLL;
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
Parameter a0
‐
94.2100
a1
0.076065
a2 ‐
0.01408
a3
24.50495
a4
0.614898
b0
2484.534
b1
0.305848
b2 ‐
1.74044
b3
48.77752
b4 ‐
248.431
c0 ‐
109.270
c1
0.039923
c2 ‐
0.08877
c3
46.38473
c4
0.668455
d0
2.574190
d1
0.028262
d2 ‐
0.05554
d3
44.66340
d4 ‐
18.8900
d5
0.462995
e0 ‐
860.079
e1
0.022835
e2 ‐
0.00005
e3
202.2507
e4
0.433254
f0 212.4910
f1 ‐
0.01587
f2 ‐
0.00178
f3 ‐
0.00767
f4 ‐
0.01419
f5 ‐
0.35596
f6
0.255731
g0 ‐
284.194
g1
1.199330
g2
1.290764
g3
0.063863
h0
82.48459
h1 ‐
0.10858
h2
36.77865
h3 ‐
9.18270
h4
0.751593
i0 ‐
3022.3900
i1 ‐
0.1303
i2
48.3532
i3 ‐
108.3160
i4
0.8079
j0
30.32915
j1 ‐
0.00984
j2
42.51397
j3 ‐
10.5026
j4
0.692698
k0 ‐
219.959
k1 ‐
0.00249
k2
44.83534
k3 ‐
2.95202
k4
0.744760
l0 ‐
339.159
l1 ‐
0.03273
l2
71.74569
l3 ‐
18.9818
l4
0.674467
m0
217.5604
m1
0.005423
m2 ‐
0.01497
m3
0.038207
m4 ‐
0.02996
m5
0.456953
m6 ‐
0.28773
m7
0.294421
n0
189.7756
n1
0.000469
n2 ‐
0.02680
n3 ‐
4.68E ‐6
n4 ‐
0.07186
n5
0.401566
n6 ‐
0.32533
n7
37.06034
n8
0.355485
o0 ‐
59.5129
o1
0.000042
o2 ‐
0.02095
o3 ‐
0.10493
o4
0.546820
o5 ‐
0.30277
o6
58.53385
o7
0.206291
p0
98.93058
p1
0.003945
p2 ‐
0.08286
p3 ‐
0.00096
p4
0.453366
p5 ‐
0.26479
p6
0.283070
q0 ‐
216.163
q1
0.014016
q2 ‐
0.00544
q3
0.647339
q4 ‐
0.10293
q5 ‐
1.81986
q6
0.133373
r0 509.0921
r1
0.007296
r2 ‐
0.14177
r3
0.225276
r4 ‐
55.3158
r5
0.268092
s0 504.4792
s1 ‐
0.02523
s2
0.778859
s3 ‐
0.064438
s4
0.031309
s5 ‐
26.9851
s6
0.364660
t0
806.9153
t1 ‐
61.7230
t2
0.784014
t3 ‐
0.27678
t4
0.026101
t5 ‐
18.9231
t6
0.456558
u0
1216.485
u1 ‐
614.017
u2
0.278252
u3 ‐
1.39743
u4
0.023139
u5 ‐
25.4168
u6
0.581026
v0
1299.909
v1 ‐
388.188
v2
0.006737
v3 ‐
24.4581
v4
0.01620
v5 ‐
20.3042
v6
0.686085
w0
1459.228
w1 ‐
182.486
w2
0.486377
w3 ‐
8.35830
w4
0.03016
w5 ‐
14.2202
w6
0.303675
x0 228.5497
x1 ‐
322.802
x2
0.765920
x3 ‐
11.0990
x4
0.037074
x5 ‐
24.8084
x6
0.665513
y0 ‐
120.598
y1 ‐
0.00289
y2
0.869165
y3
0.941430
y4
0.954247
; ARLS
= a0 + a1PGSU + a2PJSU + a3PDVS + a4LARLS ; ARLJ
= b0 + b1LPGJW + b2PJJW + b3PDVJ + b4 LT
; ALBN
= c0 + c1LPGBN + c2LPJBN + c3PVBN + c4LALBN ; ARLK
= d0 + d1PGKN + d2PJKN + d3PDVK + d4 LT
+ d5LARLK ; ALSW
= e0 + e1LPGSW + e2PJSW + e3PVSW + e4LALSW ; IMPR
= f0 + f1PIMP + f2LTPBI + f3LSTCK + f4EXCR + f5 LT
+ f6LIMPR ; PIMP
= g0 + g1TRIF + g2PTHA + g3LPIMP ; KBSU
= h0 + h1PBSUINCS + h2JPSU + h3 LT
+ h4LKBSU ; KBJW
= i0 + i1PBJWINCJ + i2JPJW + i3 LT
+ i4LKBJW ; KBBN
= j0 + j1PBBNICBN + j2JPBN + j3 LT
+ j4LKBBN ; KBKN
= k0 + k1PBKNICKN + k2JPKN + k3 LT
+ k4LKBKN ; KBSW
= l0 + l1PBSWICSW + l2JPSW + l3 LT
+ l4LKBSW ; PGTP
= m0 + m1PDPP + m2TPPI + m3LASBI + m4LSTCK + m5PBIN + m6MRJN + m7LPGTP; PGSU
= n0 + n1PDPP + n2LTPPS + n3TPPSLASBIS + n4LSTCKS + n5PBSU + n6MRJNSU + n7
LT + n8LPGSU;
PGJW = o0 + o1PDPP + o2TPPJ + o3LSTCKJ + o4PBJW + o5MRJNJ + o6
LT +
o7LPGJW; PGBN
= p0 + p1PDPP + p2TPBN + p3LTPBNASBIB + p4PBBN + p5MRJNBN + p6LPGBN ; PGKN
= q0 + q1PDPP + q2LTPPK‐TPPKLASBIK + q3PBKN + q4LMRJNK + q5T + q6LPGKN;
PGSW = r0 + r1PDPP + r2TPSW + r3PBSW + r4
LT + r5LPGSW ;
PBIN = s0 + s1QSBR‐KBIN + s2LPGTP + s3LSBI + s4LPIMP + s5T + s6LPBIN ;
PBSU = t0 + t1LTPBSKBSU + t2PGSU + t3LSBIS + t4PIMP + t5T + t6LPBSU ;
PBJW = u0 + u1TPBJLKBJW + u2LPGJW + u3LSBIJ + u4PIMP + u5T + u6LPBJW ;
PBBN = v0 + v1TPBBKBBN + v2LPGBN + v3LLSBIB + v4LPIMP + v5T + v6LPBBN ;
PBKN = w0 + w1TPBKKBKN + w2LPGKN + w3LLSBIK + w4LPIMP + w5T + w6LPBKN ;
PBSW = x0 + s1TPBSWKBSW + x2PGSW + x3LSBISW + x4PIMP + x5T + x6LPBSW ;
STCK = y0 + y1TPBI + y2IMPR + y3ASBI + y4LSTCK ;
TPPS = ARLSPDVS;
TPPJ = ARLJPDVJ;
TPBN = ALBNPVBN;
TPPK = ARLKPDVK;
TPSW = ALSWPVSW;
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
TPPI = TPPS + TPPJ + TPBN + TPPK + TPSW + TPPL;
AREA = ARLS + ARLJ + ALBN + ARLK + ALSW + ARLL;
KBIN = KBSU + KBJW + KBBN + KBKN + KBSW + KBLL;
ASBI = ASBIS + ASBIJ + ASBIB + ASBIK + ASBISS + ASBIL;
QSBR = TPBI + IMPR + STCK + IMPR ‐BSPL ‐ EXPR;
LPJBN =lagPJBN;
LMRJNK = lagMRJNK;
LARLS=lagARLS; LALBN=lagALBN;
LARLK=lagARLK; LALSW=lagALSW;
LAREA=lagAREA; LASBI=lagASBI;
LIMPR=lagIMPR; LKBSU=lagKBSU;
LKBJW=lagKBJW; LKBBN=lagKBBN;
LKBKN=lagKBKN; LKBSW=lagKBSW;
LKBIN=lagKBIN; LPBBN=lagPBBN;
LPBIN=lagPBIN; LPBJW=lagPBJW;
LPBKN=lagPBKN; LPBSU=lagPBSU;
LPBSW=lagPBSW; LPGBN=lagPGBN;
LPGJW=lagPGJW; LPGKN=lagPGKN;
LPGSU=lagPGSU; LPGSW=lagPGSW;
LPGTP=lagPGTP; LPIMP=lagPIMP;
LSTCK=lagSTCK; LSTCKJ
=lagSTCKJ; LSTCKS
=lagSTCKS; LT
=logT; LTPPI=lagTPPI;
LTPPS=lagTPPS; LTPPJ=lagTPPJ;
LTPBN=lagTPBN; LTPPK=lagTPPK;
LTPBI =lagTPBI;
LTPBS=lagTPBS; LASBIS
=lag ASBIS; LASBIJ
=lag ASBIJ; LASBIK
=lagASBIK; LLSBIB
=lagLSBIB; range
Bulan
7
to
60 ;
run ;
Lampiran 7. Program Validasi dan Simulasi Kebijakan Tahun 2004-2008 Periode II
data
data beras; set
work.piter; if
asbi= then
asbi=
0.01
; if
asbis= then
asbis=
0.01
; if
asbij= then
asbij=
0.01
; if
asbib= then
asbib=
0.01 ;
if asbik=
then asbik=
0.01 ;
if asbiss=
then asbiss=
0.01
; AREA
= ARLS + ARLJ + ALBN + ARLK + ALSW + ARLL; LPJBN
=lagPJBN; KBSU
=KKSUJPSU; KBJW
=KKJWJPJW; KBBN
=KKBNJPBN; KBKN
=KKKNJPKN; KBSW
=KKSWJPSW; KBIN
=KOBIJPDK; KBLL
=KBIN‐KBSU‐KBJW‐KBBN‐KBKN; LMRJNK
= lagMRJNK; QSBR
= TPBI + IMPR + STCK + IMPR ‐BSPL ‐ EXPR; TPPS
= ARLSPDVS; TPPJ
= ARLJPDVJ; TPBN
= ALBNPVBN; TPPK
= ARLKPDVK; TPSW
= ALSWPVSW; TPPI
= TPPS + TPPJ + TPBN + TPPK + TPSW + TPPL; TPBI
= TPBS + TPBJ + TPBB + TPBK + TPBSW + TPBL; KBIN
= KBSU + KBJW + KBBN + KBKN + KBSW + KBLL; LARLS=lagARLS;
LALBN=lagALBN; LARLK=lagARLK;
LALSW=lagALSW; LAREA=lagAREA;
LASBI=lagASBI; LIMPR=lagIMPR;
LKBSU=lagKBSU; LKBJW=lagKBJW;
LKBBN=lagKBBN; LKBKN=lagKBKN;
LKBSW=lagKBSW; LKBIN=lagKBIN;
LPBBN=lagPBBN; LPBIN=lagPBIN;
LPBJW=lagPBJW; LPBKN=lagPBKN;
LPBSU=lagPBSU; LPBSW=lagPBSW;
LPGBN=lagPGBN; LPGJW=lagPGJW;
LPGKN=lagPGKN; LPGSU=lagPGSU;
LPGSW=lagPGSW; LPGTP=lagPGTP;
LPIMP=lagPIMP; LSTCK=lagSTCK;
LSTCKJ =lagSTCKJ;
LSTCKS =lagSTCKS;
LT =logT;
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
LTPPI=lagTPPI; LTPPS=lagTPPS;
LTPPJ=lagTPPJ; LTPBN=lagTPBN;
LTPPK=lagTPPK; LTPBI
=lagTPBI; LTPBS
=lagTPBS; RPBI
=PBININCK; RPBIS
=PBSUINCS; RPBIJ
=PBJWINCJ; RPBIBN=PBBNICBN;
RPBIK =PBKNICKN;
RPBISW =PBSWICSW;
LASBIS =lag ASBIS;
LASBIJ =lag ASBIJ;
LASBIK =lagASBIK;
LLSBIB =lagLSBIB;
LLSBIK =lagLSBIK;
RTPAS =TPPI‐LTPPILASBI;
RTPASS =TPPSLASBIS;
RTPASB =LTPBNASBIB;
RTPASK =LTPPK‐TPPKLASBIK;
RQSK =QSBR‐KBIN;
RTPBKS =LTPBSKBSU;
RTPBKJ =TPBJLKBJW;
RTPBKB =TPBBKBBN;
RTPBKK =TPBKKBKN;
RTPBKSW=TPBSWKBSW; ;
array bagi PGTP INCK INCS INCJ ICBN ICKN ICSW
EXCR TRIF PTHA PBIN PIMP PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PJSU PJJW
PJBN PJKN PJSW PJTP; do
over bagi;
bagi=bagiihk; bagi=bagiihk;
if 2
= t =
5
or
14
= t =
17
or
26
= t =
29
or
38
= t =
41
or
50
= t =
53 then
panen=
1 ;
else panen=
2 ;
if panen=2;
PDPP = PDPP1.05;
TRIF = TRIF1.05;
LSBI=LSBI1.05; LSBIS=LSBIS1.05;
LSBIJ=LSBI 1.05;
LSBIB=LSBIB1.05; LSBIK=LSBIK1.05;
LSBISW=LSBISW1.05; end
;
Proc simnlin
DATA=BERAS simulate stats outpredict theil;
endogenous PGTP PGSU PGJW PGBN PGKN PGSW PBIN PBSU PBJW PBBN PBKN PBSW STCK IMPR PIMP
TPPS TPPJ TPBN TPPK TPSW TPPI KBIN KBSU KBJW KBBN KBKN KBSW KBIN AREA ARLS ARLJ ALBN ARLK
ALSW QSBR;
instruments LT
T EXCR LIMPR TRIF PTHA LPIMP TPBI TPBS TPBJ TPBB TPBK TPBSW JPDK JPSU
JPJW JPBN JPKN JPSW LKBSU LKBJW LKBBN LKBKN LKBSW PDPP LPGTP LPGSU LPGJW LPGBN LPGKN
LPGSW LSBI LSTCK LPBIN LPBSU LPBJW LPBBN LPBKN LPBSW ARLL TPPL TPBL KBLL;
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
Parameter a0
‐
94.2100
a1
0.076065
a2 ‐
0.01408
a3
24.50495
a4
0.614898
b0 2484.534
b1
0.305848
b2 ‐
1.74044
b3
48.77752
b4 ‐
248.431
c0 ‐
109.270
c1
0.039923
c2 ‐
0.08877
c3
46.38473
c4
0.668455
d0
2.574190
d1
0.028262
d2 ‐
0.05554
d3
44.66340
d4 ‐
18.8900
d5
0.462995
e0 ‐
860.079
e1
0.022835
e2 ‐
0.00005
e3
202.2507
e4
0.433254
f0 212.4910
f1 ‐
0.01587
f2 ‐
0.00178
f3 ‐
0.00767
f4 ‐
0.01419
f5 ‐
0.35596
f6
0.255731
g0 ‐
284.194
g1
1.199330
g2
1.290764
g3
0.063863
h0
82.48459
h1 ‐
0.10858
h2
36.77865
h3 ‐
9.18270
h4
0.751593
i0 ‐
3022.3900
i1 ‐
0.1303
i2
48.3532
i3 ‐
108.3160
i4
0.8079
j0
30.32915
j1 ‐
0.00984
j2
42.51397
j3 ‐
10.5026
j4
0.692698
k0 ‐
219.959
k1 ‐
0.00249
k2
44.83534
k3 ‐
2.95202
k4
0.744760
l0 ‐
339.159
l1 ‐
0.03273
l2
71.74569
l3 ‐
18.9818
l4
0.674467
m0 217.5604
m1
0.005423
m2 ‐
0.01497
m3
0.038207
m4 ‐
0.02996
m5
0.456953
m6 ‐
0.28773
m7
0.294421
n0
189.7756
n1
0.000469
n2 ‐
0.02680
n3 ‐
4.68E ‐6
n4 ‐
0.07186
n5
0.401566
n6 ‐
0.32533
n7
37.06034
n8
0.355485
o0 ‐
59.5129
o1
0.000042
o2 ‐
0.02095
o3 ‐
0.10493
o4
0.546820
o5 ‐
0.30277
o6
58.53385
o7
0.206291
p0
98.93058
p1
0.003945
p2 ‐
0.08286
p3 ‐
0.00096
p4
0.453366
p5 ‐
0.26479
p6
0.283070
q0 ‐
216.163
q1
0.014016
q2 ‐
0.00544
q3
0.647339
q4 ‐
0.10293
q5 ‐
1.81986
q6
0.133373
r0
509.0921
r1
0.007296
r2 ‐
0.14177
r3
0.225276
r4 ‐
55.3158
r5
0.268092
s0 504.4792
s1 ‐
0.02523
s2
0.778859
s3 ‐
0.064438
s4
0.031309
s5 ‐
26.9851
s6
0.364660
t0 806.9153
t1 ‐
61.7230
t2
0.784014
t3 ‐
0.27678
t4
0.026101
t5 ‐
18.9231
t6
0.456558
u0
1216.485
u1 ‐
614.017
u2
0.278252
u3 ‐
1.39743
u4
0.023139
u5 ‐
25.4168
u6
0.581026
v0
1299.909
v1 ‐
388.188
v2
0.006737
v3 ‐
24.4581
v4
0.01620
v5 ‐
20.3042
v6
0.686085
w0
1459.228
w1 ‐
182.486
w2
0.486377
w3 ‐
8.35830
w4
0.03016
w5 ‐
14.2202
w6
0.303675
x0
228.5497
x1 ‐
322.802
x2
0.765920
x3 ‐
11.0990
x4
0.037074
x5 ‐
24.8084
x6
0.665513
y0 ‐
120.598
y1 ‐
0.00289
y2
0.869165
y3
0.941430
y4
0.954247
; ARLS
= a0 + a1PGSU + a2PJSU + a3PDVS + a4LARLS ; ARLJ
= b0 + b1LPGJW + b2PJJW + b3PDVJ + b4 LT
; ALBN
= c0 + c1LPGBN + c2LPJBN + c3PVBN + c4LALBN ; ARLK
= d0 + d1PGKN + d2PJKN + d3PDVK + d4 LT
+ d5LARLK ; ALSW
= e0 + e1LPGSW + e2PJSW + e3PVSW + e4LALSW ; IMPR
= f0 + f1PIMP + f2LTPBI + f3LSTCK + f4EXCR + f5 LT
+ f6LIMPR ; PIMP
= g0 + g1TRIF + g2PTHA + g3LPIMP ; KBSU
= h0 + h1PBSUINCS + h2JPSU + h3 LT
+ h4LKBSU ; KBJW
= i0 + i1PBJWINCJ + i2JPJW + i3 LT
+ i4LKBJW ; KBBN
= j0 + j1PBBNICBN + j2JPBN + j3 LT
+ j4LKBBN ; KBKN
= k0 + k1PBKNICKN + k2JPKN + k3 LT
+ k4LKBKN ; KBSW
= l0 + l1PBSWICSW + l2JPSW + l3 LT
+ l4LKBSW ; PGTP
= m0 + m1PDPP + m2TPPI + m3LASBI + m4LSTCK + m5PBIN + m6MRJN + m7LPGTP; PGSU
= n0 + n1PDPP + n2LTPPS + n3TPPSLASBIS + n4LSTCKS + n5PBSU + n6MRJNSU + n7
LT + n8LPGSU;
PGJW = o0 + o1PDPP + o2TPPJ + o3LSTCKJ + o4PBJW + o5MRJNJ + o6
LT +
o7LPGJW; PGBN
= p0 + p1PDPP + p2TPBN + p3LTPBNASBIB + p4PBBN + p5MRJNBN + p6LPGBN ; PGKN
= q0 + q1PDPP + q2LTPPK‐TPPKLASBIK + q3PBKN + q4LMRJNK + q5T + q6LPGKN
; PGSW
= r0 + r1PDPP + r2TPSW + r3PBSW + r4 LT
+ r5LPGSW ; PBIN
= s0 + s1QSBR‐KBIN + s2LPGTP + s3LSBI + s4LPIMP + s5T + s6LPBIN ; PBSU
= t0 + t1LTPBSKBSU + t2PGSU + t3LSBIS + t4PIMP + t5T + t6LPBSU ; PBJW
= u0 + u1TPBJLKBJW + u2LPGJW + u3LSBIJ + u4PIMP + u5T + u6LPBJW ; PBBN
= v0 + v1TPBBKBBN + v2LPGBN + v3LLSBIB + v4LPIMP + v5T + v6LPBBN ; PBKN
= w0 + w1TPBKKBKN + w2LPGKN + w3LLSBIK + w4LPIMP + w5T + w6LPBKN ; PBSW
= x0 + s1TPBSWKBSW + x2PGSW + x3LSBISW + x4PIMP + x5T + x6LPBSW ; STCK
= y0 + y1TPBI + y2IMPR + y3ASBI + y4LSTCK ; TPPS
= ARLSPDVS; TPPJ
= ARLJPDVJ; TPBN
= ALBNPVBN; TPPK
= ARLKPDVK; TPSW
= ALSWPVSW;
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan
TPPI = TPPS + TPPJ + TPBN + TPPK + TPSW + TPPL;
AREA = ARLS + ARLJ + ALBN + ARLK + ALSW + ARLL;
KBIN = KBSU + KBJW + KBBN + KBKN + KBSW + KBLL;
ASBI = ASBIS + ASBIJ + ASBIB + ASBIK + ASBISS + ASBIL;
QSBR = TPBI + IMPR + STCK + IMPR ‐BSPL ‐ EXPR;
LPJBN =lagPJBN;
LMRJNK = lagMRJNK;
LARLS=lagARLS; LALBN=lagALBN;
LARLK=lagARLK; LALSW=lagALSW;
LAREA=lagAREA; LASBI=lagASBI;
LIMPR=lagIMPR; LKBSU=lagKBSU;
LKBJW=lagKBJW; LKBBN=lagKBBN;
LKBKN=lagKBKN; LKBSW=lagKBSW;
LKBIN=lagKBIN; LPBBN=lagPBBN;
LPBIN=lagPBIN; LPBJW=lagPBJW;
LPBKN=lagPBKN; LPBSU=lagPBSU;
LPBSW=lagPBSW; LPGBN=lagPGBN;
LPGJW=lagPGJW; LPGKN=lagPGKN;
LPGSU=lagPGSU; LPGSW=lagPGSW;
LPGTP=lagPGTP; LPIMP=lagPIMP;
LSTCK=lagSTCK; LSTCKJ
=lagSTCKJ; LSTCKS
=lagSTCKS; LT
=logT; LTPPI=lagTPPI;
LTPPS=lagTPPS; LTPPJ=lagTPPJ;
LTPBN=lagTPBN; LTPPK=lagTPPK;
LTPBI =lagTPBI;
LTPBS=lagTPBS; LASBIS
=lag ASBIS; LASBIJ
=lag ASBIJ; LASBIK
=lagASBIK; LLSBIB
=lagLSBIB; range
Bulan
7
to
60
; run
;
Lampiran 8. Hasil Dasar Simulasi Kebijakan Tahun 2004-2008 Agregat
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary
Model Variables 34
Endogenous 34
Parameters 154
Range Variable Bulan
Equations 34
Number of Statements 78
Program Lag Length 1
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options
DATA= BERAS
Solution Summary
Variables Solved 34
Simulation Lag Length 1
Solution Range Bulan
First 7.0000
Last 60.0000
Solution Method NEWTON
CONVERGE= 1E‐8
Maximum CC 4.37E‐9
Maximum Iterations 15
Total Iterations 177
Average Iterations 3.277778
Observations Processed
Read 55
Lagged 1
Solved 54
First 7
Last 60
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 54 54 1182.2 183.4 1425.0 816.4 PGTP
PGSU 54 54 1240.0 200.8 1300.6 1144.4 PGSU
PGJW 54 54 1167.5 175.8 1199.9 361.3 PGJW
PGBN 54 54 1079.3 161.1 1308.6 279.5 PGBN
PGKN 54 54 1318.8 227.6 1823.0 198.3 PGKN
PGSW 54 54 1068.6 136.0 1764.3 146.5 PGSW
PBIN 54 54 2433.2 288.3 3319.8 969.1 PBIN
PBSU 54 54 2743.8 399.7 3384.5 1593.1 PBSU
PBJW 54 54 2394.3 304.1 2822.7 298.8 PBJW
PBBN 54 54 2350.1 353.1 3256.5 170.1 PBBN
PBKN 54 54 2163.9 321.2 3054.9 206.6 PBKN
PBSW 54 54 2182.5 365.2 4550.4 493.7 PBSW
STCK 54 54 1450.1 442.8 1698.6 648.7 STCK
IMPR 54 54 42.7993 44.7987 83.1192 46.2588 IMPR
PIMP 54 54 2775.7 560.3 2667.1 551.3 PIMP
TPPS 54 54 1042.3 515.4 909.9 818.5 TPPS
TPPJ 54 54 2677.9 1712.7 3621.0 696.4 TPPJ
TPBN 54 54 315.8 254.3 868.2 246.0 TPBN
TPPK 54 54 257.4 135.7 406.4 66.8145 TPPK
TPSW 54 54 468.6 265.2 467.2 69.8825 TPSW
TPPI 54 54 4778.7 2636.3 6289.4 1171.3 TPPI
KBIN 54 54 24935.9 501.4 23525.7 909.1 KBIN
KBSU 54 54 5717.5 130.8 5373.5 718.8 KBSU
KBJW 54 54 13034.7 242.7 12617.2 208.4 KBJW
KBBN 54 54 1467.8 38.0620 1390.6 18.8461 KBBN
KBKN 54 54 1314.1 43.5719 1306.8 41.3117 KBKN
KBSW 54 54 1782.7 58.3222 1218.7 192.7 KBSW
AREA 54 54 1063.9 542.5 1386.1 229.6 AREA
ARLS 54 54 259.7 110.3 238.2 187.2 ARLS
ARLJ 54 54 519.3 331.0 702.6 136.9 ARLJ
ALBN 54 54 66.6073 51.4957 184.1 50.2114 ALBN
ARLK 54 54 74.5247 38.6624 117.8 17.3132 ARLK
ALSW 54 54 107.5 60.5513 107.1 15.3191 ALSW
QSBR 54 54 4121.9 1450.8 5535.9 622.3 QSBR
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Statistics of fit
Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable
N Error Error Error Error Error Error R‐Square PGTP
54 163.0 5.9838 649.9 57.6515 743.4 66.9837 ‐.1574 PGSU
54 67.7732 ‐8.6318 865.5 77.4155 973.4 96.0029 ‐.2295 PGJW
54 118.5 8.7683 230.3 19.8413 281.7 23.7791 ‐.1616 PGBN
54 425.6 41.1106 425.6 41.1106 468.1 45.8746 ‐.7597 PGKN
54 518.8 41.7031 518.8 41.7031 548.8 45.1796 ‐.4921 PGSW
54 695.7 67.2757 695.7 67.2757 713.2 70.5202 ‐.2704 PBIN
54 773.8 29.6737 884.4 35.3830 1152.5 45.6813 ‐.1528 PBSU
54 651.9 18.2826 1278.1 47.5418 1445.0 54.7306 ‐.1231 PBJW
54 559.6 24.2884 560.6 24.3245 616.3 27.2505 ‐.3184 PBBN
54 1241.9 56.3057 1241.9 56.3057 1285.4 61.4894 ‐.1250 PBKN
54 910.7 44.4991 910.7 44.4991 946.7 47.9631 ‐.7850 PBSW
54 2367.8 113.4 2367.8 113.4 2421.5 11.91 ‐.4378 STCK
54 322.7 25.2588 358.0 27.3902 541.5 40.8264 ‐.5237 IMPR
54 42.0769 304.0 48.6370 323.4 59.7207 54.90 ‐.8107 PIMP
54 ‐108.6 ‐3.8991 121.1 4.3105 210.5 6.6788 0.8562 TPPS
54 ‐126.5 8.2231 728.2 80.7777 915.0 10.05 .2110 TPPJ
54 1074.6 123.3 1704.1 135.2 2066.8 21.08 .4837 TPBN
54 654.5 365.5 666.3 368.6 724.4 46.58 .2690 TPPK
54 151.6 123.8 165.9 127.3 199.1 20.09 .1920 TPSW
54 ‐1.4754 38.4241 207.8 64.3410 248.3 96.6342 .1067 TPPI
54 1752.8 85.2809 2606.4 95.0318 3128.2 142.0 .4345 KBIN
54 ‐1572.2 ‐6.3240 1572.2 6.3240 1701.6 6.8580 .7300 KBSU
54 ‐351.0 ‐6.3256 623.8 10.9090 716.2 12.5157 .5700 KBJW
54 ‐543.2 ‐4.1520 543.2 4.1520 598.3 4.5608 .1920 KBBN
54 ‐106.5 ‐7.1936 106.5 7.1936 116.4 7.7923 .5360 KBKN
54 ‐7.4667 ‐0.5603 10.7619 0.8158 12.7067 0.9611 .9133 KBSW
54 ‐564.1 ‐31.5392 564.1 31.5392 599.6 33.3762 .7000 AREA
54 371.8 74.5858 557.3 84.5087 662.0 12.30 .5169 ARLS
54 ‐19.8341 8.2231 179.4 80.7777 217.7 10.05 .9700 ARLJ
54 208.8 123.3 329.9 135.2 399.6 21.08 .4845 ALBN
54 139.2 365.5 141.9 368.6 154.0 46.58 .1170 ARLK
54 44.0090 123.8 48.3356 127.3 58.0272 20.09 .2950 ALSW
54 ‐0.3397 38.4241 47.6594 64.3410 56.9121 96.6342 .0999 QSBR
54 406.9 10.8966 438.0 11.7063 635.9 17.6809 .8043
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Theil Forecast Error Statistics
MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U PGTP 54 513009 0.79 0.11 0.86 0.02 0.77 0.12 0.5988 0.2527
PGSU 54 914209 0.92 0.00 0.99 0.01 0.96 0.04 0.7614 0.3207 PGJW 54 68029.3 0.73 0.02 0.78 0.21 0.50 0.49 0.2210 0.1072
PGBN 54 101058 0.61 0.52 0.32 0.16 0.14 0.34 0.2914 0.1309 PGKN 54 285985 0.65 0.89 0.01 0.10 0.00 0.11 0.3997 0.1686
PGSW 54 508601 0.37 0.95 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.05 0.6621 0.2505 PBIN 54 1395356 0.72 0.56 0.41 0.03 0.33 0.11 0.4822 0.2000
PBSU 54 1993994 0.85 0.21 0.77 0.02 0.70 0.09 0.5094 0.2170 PBJW 54 239151 0.69 0.77 0.03 0.20 0.00 0.23 0.2026 0.0931
PBBN 54 898063 0.63 0.91 0.00 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.3988 0.1681 PBKN 54 857758 0.61 0.93 0.00 0.07 0.02 0.06 0.4234 0.1764
PBSW 54 5863876 0.32 0.96 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.04 1.0946 0.3567 STCK 54 243053 0.75 0.25 0.40 0.34 0.17 0.57 0.3254 0.1480
IMPR 54 3436.5 0.56 0.47 0.13 0.40 0.00 0.53 0.9508 0.3744 PIMP 54 44318.3 0.95 0.27 0.01 0.72 0.00 0.73 0.0744 0.0379
TPPS 54 819527 0.14 0.02 0.67 0.31 0.11 0.87 0.7800 0.3805 TPPJ 54 3957584 0.12 0.22 0.06 0.72 0.26 0.52 0.6275 0.2901
TPBN 54 386300 0.34 0.79 0.06 0.15 0.00 0.21 1.5385 0.4760 TPPK 54 38583.3 0.34 0.58 0.01 0.41 0.12 0.30 0.6764 0.2797
TPSW 54 61657.2 0.33 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.61 0.39 0.4622 0.2460 TPPI 54 8902232 0.26 0.26 0.03 0.72 0.24 0.51 0.5479 0.2520
KBIN 54 2355658 0.77 0.84 0.11 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.0615 0.0317 KBSU 54 488717 0.83 0.24 0.75 0.01 0.69 0.06 0.1222 0.0628
KBJW 54 221969 0.53 0.79 0.03 0.19 0.01 0.21 0.0361 0.0184 KBBN 54 7237.3 0.35 0.82 0.00 0.17 0.05 0.13 0.0579 0.0298
KBKN 54 159.3 0.97 0.34 0.01 0.66 0.03 0.63 0.0096 0.0048 KBSW 54 359554 ‐0.07 0.88 0.11 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.3362 0.1987
AREA 54 400059 0.18 0.26 0.04 0.70 0.24 0.50 0.5306 0.2436 ARLS 54 46408.5 0.01 0.01 0.73 0.26 0.13 0.86 0.7646 0.3691
ARLJ 54 147811 0.13 0.23 0.06 0.71 0.25 0.52 0.6260 0.2891 ALBN 54 17444.9 0.28 0.79 0.07 0.14 0.00 0.21 1.5742 0.4810
ARLK 54 3279.3 0.27 0.57 0.01 0.42 0.14 0.29 0.6834 0.2823 ALSW 54 3239.0 0.32 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.62 0.38 0.4624 0.2461
QSBR 54 404354 0.95 0.41 0.09 0.50 0.03 0.56 0.1457 0.0695
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable
N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U PGTP 54 0.3851 0.21 0.05 0.94 0.01 0.83 0.12 12.8071 0.9180
PGSU 54 0.8614 0.26 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.93 0.07 21.9464 0.9462 PGJW 54 0.0532 0.22 0.00 0.94 0.06 0.60 0.40 3.9998 0.7856
PGBN 54 0.0827 0.25 0.56 0.40 0.04 0.22 0.22 4.6420 0.8209 PGKN 54 0.1889 0.35 0.85 0.12 0.03 0.06 0.09 5.8968 0.8551
PGSW 54 0.4853 0.10 0.92 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.04 12.5433 0.9311 PBIN 54 0.2174 0.32 0.55 0.44 0.01 0.36 0.09 10.3670 0.9055
PBSU 54 0.2803 0.20 0.12 0.88 0.01 0.77 0.11 13.2141 0.9234 PBJW 54 0.0454 0.27 0.75 0.21 0.04 0.10 0.15 4.9725 0.8429
PBBN 54 0.2013 0.08 0.83 0.16 0.01 0.08 0.09 8.5925 0.9037 PBKN 54 0.2130 0.16 0.87 0.12 0.02 0.05 0.08 7.4186 0.8915
PBSW 54 1.3835 ‐0.05 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.06 0.03 22.0708 0.9617 STCK 54 0.1211 0.68 0.30 0.54 0.16 0.31 0.39 1.8348 0.5605
IMPR 54 18.0900 0.63 0.30 0.60 0.10 0.39 0.31 2.3402 0.5999 PIMP 54 0.00553 0.64 0.31 0.02 0.67 0.05 0.64 0.9372 0.4778
TPPS 54 1.4084 0.67 0.02 0.84 0.15 0.55 0.43 1.8741 0.5495 TPPJ 54 3.3908 0.39 0.28 0.55 0.17 0.22 0.50 2.2034 0.6435
TPBN 54 16.9379 0.39 0.57 0.38 0.05 0.23 0.20 4.1842 0.7628 TPPK 54 2.9794 0.57 0.36 0.51 0.13 0.27 0.37 2.1974 0.6049
TPSW 54 0.7669 0.55 0.06 0.31 0.63 0.02 0.93 1.0226 0.4640 TPPI 54 1.7568 0.41 0.30 0.56 0.15 0.25 0.45 2.3515 0.6529
KBIN 54 0.00383 0.33 0.84 0.14 0.02 0.08 0.07 7.5797 0.8811 KBSU 54 0.0149 0.22 0.26 0.74 0.00 0.68 0.06 21.0163 0.9529
KBJW 54 0.00129 0.25 0.79 0.16 0.05 0.06 0.15 4.4859 0.8178 KBBN 54 0.00325 0.13 0.84 0.14 0.02 0.05 0.11 6.3009 0.8784
KBKN 54 0.000091 0.54 0.33 0.25 0.42 0.02 0.65 1.2917 0.5213 KBSW 54 0.1119 ‐0.10 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.03 22.2099 0.9604
AREA 54 1.2511 0.39 0.31 0.53 0.17 0.21 0.49 2.2354 0.6496 ARLS 54 0.9503 0.27 0.00 0.86 0.14 0.41 0.59 2.5318 0.6989
ARLJ 54 3.3910 0.39 0.28 0.55 0.17 0.22 0.50 2.1994 0.6430 ALBN 54 16.4829 0.39 0.58 0.38 0.05 0.22 0.20 4.1267 0.7602
ARLK 54 2.9024 0.55 0.36 0.50 0.13 0.26 0.38 2.2086 0.6096 ALSW 54 0.7644 0.55 0.06 0.31 0.63 0.02 0.93 1.0200 0.4636
QSBR 54 0.0278 0.94 0.40 0.10 0.49 0.04 0.56 0.4977 0.2298
Lampiran 9. Hasil Dasar Simulasi Kebijakan Tahun 2004-2008 Periode I
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 14 To 53
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
16 16 1177.2 174.8 1170.7 475.0 PGTP PGSU
16 16 1293.4 186.3 1165.7 436.3 PGSU PGJW
16 16 1151.5 186.2 1116.1 270.5 PGJW PGBN
16 16 1063.5 165.1 1178.5 180.8 PGBN PGKN
16 16 1422.4 229.7 1773.4 153.8 PGKN PGSW
16 16 1102.7 152.1 1537.8 130.9 PGSW PBIN
16 16 2493.7 320.9 3043.6 493.4 PBIN PBSU
16 16 2855.3 442.0 3196.1 532.2 PBSU PBJW
16 16 2458.6 336.1 2770.9 199.8 PBJW PBBN
16 16 2418.1 381.8 3154.8 160.6 PBBN PBKN
16 16 2246.0 292.6 2977.3 178.8 PBKN PBSW
16 16 2316.8 443.9 3841.7 486.8 PBSW STCK
16 16 1191.0 414.1 2845.8 424.4 STCK IMPR
16 16 48.4600 53.2463 75.7360 40.9874 IMPR PIMP
16 16 2886.7 700.5 2674.8 637.4 PIMP TPPS
16 16 1484.4 580.2 806.0 306.6 TPPS TPPJ
16 16 4161.7 1935.5 3781.1 809.1 TPPJ TPBN
16 16 576.2 318.8 873.8 212.7 TPBN TPPK
16 16 381.1 70.5052 420.8 69.0793 TPPK TPSW
16 16 586.2 294.2 462.2 29.1812 TPSW TPPI
16 16 7215.3 2900.0 6369.7 988.7 TPPI KBIN
16 16 24811.3 514.4 24124.4 503.4 KBIN KBSU
16 16 5707.3 132.1 5495.0 120.8 KBSU KBJW
16 16 12960.8 227.6 12828.6 184.9 KBJW KBBN
16 16 1456.1 39.2218 1409.6 23.9174 KBBN KBKN
16 16 1301.4 36.2903 1314.9 40.2964 KBKN KBSW
16 16 1767.1 57.6605 1457.7 208.4 KBSW AREA
16 16 1577.0 576.2 1380.8 187.5 AREA ARLS
16 16 377.7 103.3 208.9 51.1138 ARLS ARLJ
16 16 802.7 372.8 731.3 163.4 ARLJ ALBN
16 16 118.1 64.4612 179.1 43.6414 ALBN ARLK
16 16 108.0 18.7113 119.5 19.2441 ARLK ALSW
16 16 134.1 67.2614 105.8 6.5699 ALSW QSBR
16 16 5238.7 1577.5 6586.2 874.1 QSBR
Lampiran 10. Hasil Dasar Simulasi Kebijakan Tahun 2004-2008 Periode II
The SAS System The
SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic
Simultaneous Simulation Solution
Range Bulan = 7 To 60 Descriptive
Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 38 38 1184.3 189.2 1637.0 650.9 PGTP
PGSU 38 38 1217.5 204.7 1469.5 1038.6 PGSU
PGJW 38 38 1174.3 173.3 1263.1 341.6 PGJW
PGBN 38 38 1085.9 161.2 1367.1 266.7 PGBN
PGKN 38 38 1275.2 215.0 1828.0 189.3 PGKN
PGSW 38 38 1054.3 128.0 1741.5 142.4 PGSW
PBIN 38 38 2407.7 274.0 3588.7 756.2 PBIN
PBSU 38 38 2696.8 376.9 3635.2 1413.4 PBSU
PBJW 38 38 2367.3 290.1 2880.9 274.9 PBJW
PBBN 38 38 2321.5 341.5 3289.5 171.4 PBBN
PBKN 38 38 2129.3 330.1 3065.9 202.4 PBKN
PBSW 38 38 2126.0 316.5 4468.2 512.0 PBSW
STCK 38 38 1559.2 412.4 1182.6 532.1 STCK
IMPR 38 38 40.4158 41.3001 85.8385 50.9745 IMPR
PIMP 38 38 2728.9 493.1 2663.2 516.4 PIMP
TPPS 38 38 856.1 352.1 1081.1 704.9 TPPS
TPPJ 38 38 2053.2 1153.4 3620.2 680.0 TPPJ
TPBN 38 38 206.2 98.6964 802.4 242.8 TPBN
TPPK 38 38 205.3 122.3 391.9 64.0725 TPPK
TPSW 38 38 419.1 239.1 451.9 74.3615 TPSW
TPPI 38 38 3752.8 1702.3 6360.3 1048.8 TPPI
KBIN 38 38 24988.3 493.3 23313.5 855.0 KBIN
KBSU 38 38 5721.8 131.8 5193.7 568.3 KBSU
KBJW 38 38 13065.9 244.9 12565.6 265.8 KBJW
KBBN 38 38 1472.8 36.9696 1386.9 22.1265 KBBN
KBKN 38 38 1319.5 45.6764 1312.6 42.9186 KBKN
KBSW 38 38 1789.3 58.0963 1235.7 224.1 KBSW
AREA 38 38 847.9 353.9 1408.2 216.5 AREA
ARLS 38 38 210.0 67.3760 276.0 159.6 ARLS
ARLJ 38 38 399.9 226.4 704.1 135.5 ARLJ
ALBN 38 38 44.9208 21.9956 173.3 52.0884 ALBN
ARLK 38 38 60.4220 36.1919 114.7 17.1304 ARLK
ALSW 38 38 96.2830 54.6183 103.8 16.2760 ALSW
QSBR 38 38 3651.7 1113.4 5125.1 456.4 QSBR
Lampiran 11. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah Sebesar 5 persen Tahun 2004- 2008 Periode
Agregat
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
54 54 1182.2 183.4 1565.5 778.2 PGTP PGSU
54 54 1240.0 200.8 1321.7 1138.5 PGSU PGJW
54 54 1167.5 175.8 1200.2 361.2 PGJW PGBN
54 54 1079.3 161.1 1331.1 275.8 PGBN PGKN
54 54 1318.8 227.6 1981.7 176.5 PGKN PGSW
54 54 1068.6 136.0 1899.7 154.2 PGSW PBIN
54 54 2433.2 288.3 3481.5 926.0 PBIN PBSU
54 54 2743.8 399.7 3414.0 1584.6 PBSU PBJW
54 54 2394.3 304.1 2822.9 298.8 PBJW PBBN
54 54 2350.1 353.1 3250.9 170.6 PBBN PBKN
54 54 2163.9 321.2 3158.3 198.0 PBKN PBSW
54 54 2182.5 365.2 4844.5 535.9 PBSW STCK
54 54 1450.1 442.8 1695.8 6480 STCK IMPR
54 54 42.7993 44.7987 83.0320 46.2345 IMPR PIMP
54 54 2775.7 560.3 2667.1 551.3 PIMP TPPS
54 54 1042.3 515.4 926.1 814.8 TPPS TPPJ
54 54 2677.9 1712.7 3621.6 696.4 TPPJ TPBN
54 54 315.8 254.3 880.1 248.8 TPBN TPPK
54 54 257.4 135.7 434.6 71.7610 TPPK TPSW
54 54 468.6 265.2 489.8 73.3358 TPSW TPPI
54 54 4778.7 2636.3 6368.9 1172.5 TPPI KBIN
54 54 24935.9 501.4 23437.9 899.1 KBIN KBSU
54 54 5717.5 130.8 5357.6 712.8 KBSU KBJW
54 54 13034.7 242.7 12617.0 208.4 KBJW KBBN
54 54 1467.8 38.0620 1391.1 18.7375 KBBN KBKN
54 54 1314.1 43.5719 1306.0 41.5057 KBKN KBSW
54 54 1782.7 58.3222 1147.3 225.8 KBSW AREA
54 54 1063.9 542.5 1406.1 229.9 AREA ARLS
54 54 259.7 110.3 242.2 186.1 ARLS ARLJ
54 54 519.3 331.0 702.7 136.9 ARLJ ALBN
54 54 66.6073 51.4957 186.6 50.8137 ALBN ARLK
54 54 74.5247 38.6624 126.0 18.7035 ARLK ALSW
54 54 107.5 60.5513 112.3 16.1047 ALSW QSBR
54 54 4121.9 1450.8 5582.5 629.3 QSBR
Lampiran 12. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode I
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 14 To 53
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
16 16 1177.2 174.8 1270.9 435.3 PGTP PGSU
16 16 1293.4 186.3 1180.0 431.1 PGSU PGJW
16 16 1151.5 186.2 1116.5 270.4 PGJW PGBN
16 16 1063.5 165.1 1202.2 178.4 PGBN PGKN
16 16 1422.4 229.7 1921.2 151.3 PGKN PGSW
16 16 1102.7 152.1 1645.3 168.2 PGSW PBIN
16 16 2493.7 320.9 3145.3 451.4 PBIN PBSU
16 16 2855.3 442.0 3214.9 525.1 PBSU PBJW
16 16 2458.6 336.1 2771.1 199.7 PBJW PBBN
16 16 2418.1 381.8 3150.4 159.8 PBBN PBKN
16 16 2246.0 292.6 3064.9 187.4 PBKN PBSW
16 16 2316.8 443.9 4044.9 580.9 PBSW STCK
16 16 1191.0 414.1 2844.9 423.8 STCK IMPR
16 16 48.4600 53.2463 75.6636 40.9504 IMPR PIMP
16 16 2886.7 700.5 2674.8 637.4 PIMP TPPS
16 16 1484.4 580.2 815.4 305.6 TPPS TPPJ
16 16 4161.7 1935.5 3781.6 809.1 TPPJ TPBN
16 16 576.2 318.8 884.6 217.1 TPBN TPPK
16 16 381.1 70.5052 446.2 76.8356 TPPK TPSW
16 16 586.2 294.2 478.1 30.2141 TPSW TPPI
16 16 7215.3 2900.0 6431.6 998.8 TPPI KBIN
16 16 24811.3 514.4 24075.6 527.2 KBIN KBSU
16 16 5707.3 132.1 5487.3 119.6 KBSU KBJW
16 16 12960.8 227.6 12828.5 185.0 KBJW KBBN
16 16 1456.1 39.2218 1409.9 23.7413 KBBN KBKN
16 16 1301.4 36.2903 1314.3 40.5795 KBKN KBSW
16 16 1767.1 57.6605 1416.9 236.4 KBSW AREA
16 16 1577.0 576.2 1396.3 190.9 AREA ARLS
16 16 377.7 103.3 211.2 50.2450 ARLS ARLJ
16 16 802.7 372.8 731.4 163.4 ARLJ ALBN
16 16 118.1 64.4612 181.3 44.5581 ALBN ARLK
16 16 108.0 18.7113 126.7 21.4919 ARLK ALSW
16 16 134.1 67.2614 109.4 6.7787 ALSW QSBR
16 16 5238.7 1577.5 6623.7 886.1 QSBR
Lampiran 13. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah Naik 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode II
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
38 38 1184.3 189.2 1765.9 615.9 PGTP PGSU
38 38 1217.5 204.7 1488.6 1032.9 PGSU PGJW
38 38 1174.3 173.3 1263.5 341.5 PGJW PGBN
38 38 1085.9 161.2 1389.6 263.1 PGBN PGKN
38 38 1275.2 215.0 1982.1 171.5 PGKN PGSW
38 38 1054.3 128.0 1868.5 161.1 PGSW PBIN
38 38 2407.7 274.0 3733.9 721.3 PBIN PBSU
38 38 2696.8 376.9 3661.5 1405.5 PBSU PBJW
38 38 2367.3 290.1 2881.1 274.9 PBJW PBBN
38 38 2321.5 341.5 3284.3 171.6 PBBN PBKN
38 38 2129.3 330.1 3164.7 199.1 PBKN PBSW
38 38 2126.0 316.5 4737.1 577.7 PBSW STCK
38 38 1559.2 412.4 1180.5 532.4 STCK IMPR
38 38 40.4158 41.3001 85.7543 50.9452 IMPR PIMP
38 38 2728.9 493.1 2663.2 516.4 PIMP TPPS
38 38 856.1 352.1 1095.5 701.7 TPPS TPPJ
38 38 2053.2 1153.4 3620.7 680.1 TPPJ TPBN
38 38 206.2 98.6964 813.7 246.1 TPBN TPPK
38 38 205.3 122.3 418.8 70.0834 TPPK TPSW
38 38 419.1 239.1 472.6 78.3405 TPSW TPPI
38 38 3752.8 1702.3 6434.2 1056.5 TPPI KBIN
38 38 24988.3 493.3 23234.9 861.4 KBIN KBSU
38 38 5721.8 131.8 5179.9 563.7 KBSU KBJW
38 38 13065.9 244.9 12565.4 265.9 KBJW KBBN
38 38 1472.8 36.9696 1387.4 21.9675 KBBN KBKN
38 38 1319.5 45.6764 1311.9 43.1538 KBKN KBSW
38 38 1789.3 58.0963 1171.3 258.8 KBSW AREA
38 38 847.9 353.9 1426.9 218.7 AREA ARLS
38 38 210.0 67.3760 279.5 158.7 ARLS ARLJ
38 38 399.9 226.4 704.2 135.5 ARLJ ALBN
38 38 44.9208 21.9956 175.7 52.8051 ALBN ARLK
38 38 60.4220 36.1919 122.6 18.8480 ARLK ALSW
38 38 96.2830 54.6183 108.5 17.1949 ALSW QSBR
38 38 3651.7 1113.4 5168.9 458.0 QSBR
Lampiran 14. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Tarif Impor Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Agregat
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
54 54 1182.2 183.4 1564.7 821.2 PGTP PGSU
54 54 1240.0 200.8 1511.0 1157.5 PGSU PGJW
54 54 1167.5 175.8 1260.7 373.5 PGJW PGBN
54 54 1079.3 161.1 1336.6 286.1 PGBN PGKN
54 54 1318.8 227.6 1894.4 215.9 PGKN PGSW
54 54 1068.6 136.0 1871.3 170.7 PGSW PBIN
54 54 2433.2 288.3 3527.5 987.1 PBIN PBSU
54 54 2743.8 399.7 3735.4 1620.8 PBSU PBJW
54 54 2394.3 304.1 2914.8 318.8 PBJW PBBN
54 54 2350.1 353.1 3304.4 182.0 PBBN PBKN
54 54 2163.9 321.2 3150.5 230.9 PBKN PBSW
54 54 2182.5 365.2 4911.3 572.9 PBSW STCK
54 54 1450.1 442.8 1397.9 670.9 STCK IMPR
54 54 42.7993 44.7987 61.6838 52.7264 IMPR PIMP
54 54 2775.7 560.3 3797.1 759.1 PIMP TPPS
54 54 1042.3 515.4 1070.4 836.1 TPPS TPPJ
54 54 2677.9 1712.7 3716.3 702.8 TPPJ TPBN
54 54 315.8 254.3 883.6 247.4 TPBN TPPK
54 54 257.4 135.7 419.3 68.6906 TPPK TPSW
54 54 468.6 265.2 485.5 73.4649 TPSW TPPI
54 54 4778.7 2636.3 6591.8 1230.8 TPPI KBIN
54 54 24935.9 501.4 23158.9 964.3 KBIN KBSU
54 54 5717.5 130.8 5185.9 713.8 KBSU KBJW
54 54 13034.7 242.7 12528.1 230.1 KBJW KBBN
54 54 1467.8 38.0620 1386.6 19.5239 KBBN KBKN
54 54 1314.1 43.5719 1306.1 41.4658 KBKN KBSW
54 54 1782.7 58.3222 1133.3 216.2 KBSW AREA
54 54 1063.9 542.5 1456.3 243.1 AREA ARLS
54 54 259.7 110.3 278.7 189.6 ARLS ARLJ
54 54 519.3 331.0 721.0 137.6 ARLJ ALBN
54 54 66.6073 51.4957 187.3 50.4478 ALBN ARLK
54 54 74.5247 38.6624 121.5 17.7967 ARLK ALSW
54 54 107.5 60.5513 111.4 16.1407 ALSW QSBR
54 54 4121.9 1450.8 5380.7 623.7 QSBR
Lampiran 15. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Tarif Impor Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode I
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 14 To 53
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
16 16 1177.2 174.8 1257.4 452.1 PGTP PGSU
16 16 1293.4 186.3 1302.9 414.0 PGSU PGJW
16 16 1151.5 186.2 1170.3 268.3 PGJW PGBN
16 16 1063.5 165.1 1205.0 183.4 PGBN PGKN
16 16 1422.4 229.7 1836.2 167.0 PGKN PGSW
16 16 1102.7 152.1 1614.1 155.8 PGSW PBIN
16 16 2493.7 320.9 3179.8 476.9 PBIN PBSU
16 16 2855.3 442.0 3431.5 507.5 PBSU PBJW
16 16 2458.6 336.1 2853.7 202.5 PBJW PBBN
16 16 2418.1 381.8 3200.3 169.1 PBBN PBKN
16 16 2246.0 292.6 3061.9 201.2 PBKN PBSW
16 16 2316.8 443.9 4103.4 564.2 PBSW STCK
16 16 1191.0 414.1 2695.8 377.7 STCK IMPR
16 16 48.4600 53.2463 53.3085 46.0074 IMPR PIMP
16 16 2886.7 700.5 3791.7 804.7 PIMP TPPS
16 16 1484.4 580.2 898.5 311.0 TPPS TPPJ
16 16 4161.7 1935.5 3861.9 811.7 TPPJ TPBN
16 16 576.2 318.8 886.9 217.6 TPBN TPPK
16 16 381.1 70.5052 431.9 72.7831 TPPK TPSW
16 16 586.2 294.2 473.9 29.3616 TPSW TPPI
16 16 7215.3 2900.0 6578.8 1025.8 TPPI KBIN
16 16 24811.3 514.4 23903.5 603.5 KBIN KBSU
16 16 5707.3 132.1 5394.2 132.7 KBSU KBJW
16 16 12960.8 227.6 12766.4 214.1 KBJW KBBN
16 16 1456.1 39.2218 1406.2 25.1044 KBBN KBKN
16 16 1301.4 36.2903 1314.3 40.5574 KBKN KBSW
16 16 1767.1 57.6605 1403.8 236.2 KBSW AREA
16 16 1577.0 576.2 1428.6 197.2 AREA ARLS
16 16 377.7 103.3 232.5 46.8585 ARLS ARLJ
16 16 802.7 372.8 747.0 164.4 ARLJ ALBN
16 16 118.1 64.4612 181.8 44.6363 ALBN ARLK
16 16 108.0 18.7113 122.6 20.3046 ARLK ALSW
16 16 134.1 67.2614 108.4 6.5929 ALSW QSBR
16 16 5238.7 1577.5 6521.7 877.4 QSBR
Lampiran 16. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Tarif Impor Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode II
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
38 38 1184.3 189.2 1764.4 654.4 PGTP PGSU
38 38 1217.5 204.7 1665.4 1042.8 PGSU PGJW
38 38 1174.3 173.3 1323.2 352.9 PGJW PGBN
38 38 1085.9 161.2 1395.2 273.6 PGBN PGKN
38 38 1275.2 215.0 1898.5 206.6 PGKN PGSW
38 38 1054.3 128.0 1843.6 166.9 PGSW PBIN
38 38 2407.7 274.0 3780.2 775.5 PBIN PBSU
38 38 2696.8 376.9 3963.4 1429.1 PBSU PBJW
38 38 2367.3 290.1 2972.2 293.8 PBJW PBBN
38 38 2321.5 341.5 3337.5 183.0 PBBN PBKN
38 38 2129.3 330.1 3160.5 226.6 PBKN PBSW
38 38 2126.0 316.5 4813.4 590.6 PBSW STCK
38 38 1559.2 412.4 921.1 599.0 STCK IMPR
38 38 40.4158 41.3001 63.9360 57.6733 IMPR PIMP
38 38 2728.9 493.1 3797.6 743.6 PIMP TPPS
38 38 856.1 352.1 1230.9 716.5 TPPS TPPJ
38 38 2053.2 1153.4 3713.7 689.3 TPPJ TPBN
38 38 206.2 98.6964 817.3 244.9 TPBN TPPK
38 38 205.3 122.3 404.4 66.6805 TPPK TPSW
38 38 419.1 239.1 469.1 77.9280 TPSW TPPI
38 38 3752.8 1702.3 6648.3 1115.6 TPPI KBIN
38 38 24988.3 493.3 22967.7 937.0 KBIN KBSU
38 38 5721.8 131.8 5020.6 566.3 KBSU KBJW
38 38 13065.9 244.9 12479.1 291.2 KBJW KBBN
38 38 1472.8 36.9696 1383.0 22.9644 KBBN KBKN
38 38 1319.5 45.6764 1311.9 43.1109 KBKN KBSW
38 38 1789.3 58.0963 1154.0 251.8 KBSW AREA
38 38 847.9 353.9 1474.3 232.4 AREA ARLS
38 38 210.0 67.3760 313.1 160.8 ARLS ARLJ
38 38 399.9 226.4 722.2 136.8 ARLJ ALBN
38 38 44.9208 21.9956 176.5 52.5298 ALBN ARLK
38 38 60.4220 36.1919 118.4 17.8531 ARLK ALSW
38 38 96.2830 54.6183 107.7 17.0958 ALSW QSBR
38 38 3651.7 1113.4 4999.2 472.2 QSBR
Lampiran 17. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Penyaluran Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode Agregat
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 54 54 1182.2 183.4 1276.4 845.8 PGTP
PGSU 54 54 1240.0 200.8 1300.6 1144.4 PGSU
PGJW 54 54 1167.5 175.8 1199.9 361.3 PGJW
PGBN 54 54 1079.3 161.1 1308.6 279.5 PGBN
PGKN 54 54 1318.8 227.6 1823.0 198.3 PGKN
PGSW 54 54 1068.6 136.0 1764.3 146.5 PGSW
PBIN 54 54 2433.2 288.3 3087.7 1009.2 PBIN
PBSU 54 54 2743.8 399.7 3384.5 1593.1 PBSU
PBJW 54 54 2394.3 304.1 2822.7 298.8 PBJW
PBBN 54 54 2350.1 353.1 3256.5 170.1 PBBN
PBKN 54 54 2163.9 321.2 3054.9 206.6 PBKN
PBSW 54 54 2182.5 365.2 4550.4 493.7 PBSW
STCK 54 54 1450.1 442.8 1698.6 648.7 STCK
IMPR 54 54 42.7993 44.7987 83.1192 46.2588 IMPR
PIMP 54 54 2775.7 560.3 2667.1 551.3 PIMP
TPPS 54 54 1042.3 515.4 909.9 818.5 TPPS
TPPJ 54 54 2677.9 1712.7 3621.0 696.4 TPPJ
TPBN 54 54 315.8 254.3 868.2 246.0 TPBN
TPPK 54 54 257.4 135.7 406.4 66.8145 TPPK
TPSW 54 54 468.6 265.2 467.2 69.8825 TPSW
TPPI 54 54 4778.7 2636.3 6289.4 1171.3 TPPI
KBIN 54 54 24935.9 501.4 23525.7 909.1 KBIN
KBSU 54 54 5717.5 130.8 5373.5 718.8 KBSU
KBJW 54 54 13034.7 242.7 12617.2 208.4 KBJW
KBBN 54 54 1467.8 38.0620 1390.6 18.8461 KBBN
KBKN 54 54 1314.1 43.5719 1306.8 41.3117 KBKN
KBSW 54 54 1782.7 58.3222 1218.7 192.7 KBSW
AREA 54 54 1063.9 542.5 1386.1 229.6 AREA
ARLS 54 54 259.7 110.3 238.2 187.2 ARLS
ARLJ 54 54 519.3 331.0 702.6 136.9 ARLJ
ALBN 54 54 66.6073 51.4957 184.1 50.2114 ALBN
ARLK 54 54 74.5247 38.6624 117.8 17.3132 ARLK
ALSW 54 54 107.5 60.5513 107.1 15.3191 ALSW
QSBR 54 54 4121.9 1450.8 5535.9 622.3 QSBR
Lampiran 17. Lanjutan
Penyaluran Wilayah Agregat
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 54 54 1182.2 183.4 1595.7 757.8 PGTP
PGSU 54 54 1240.0 200.8 1073.4 1190.7 PGSU
PGJW 54 54 1167.5 175.8 865.5 418.3 PGJW
PGBN 54 54 1079.3 161.1 868.5 332.2 PGBN
PGKN 54 54 1318.8 227.6 1823.0 198.3 PGKN
PGSW 54 54 1068.6 136.0 1444.9 150.0 PGSW
PBIN 54 54 2433.2 288.3 3557.5 892.0 PBIN
PBSU 54 54 2743.8 399.7 3003.1 1666.8 PBSU
PBJW 54 54 2394.3 304.1 2314.7 390.0 PBJW
PBBN 54 54 2350.1 353.1 2503.7 294.9 PBBN
PBKN 54 54 2163.9 321.2 3054.9 206.6 PBKN
PBSW 54 54 2182.5 365.2 3468.6 452.3 PBSW
STCK 54 54 1450.1 442.8 1733.3 653.8 STCK
IMPR 54 54 42.7993 44.7987 84.1609 46.3701 IMPR
PIMP 54 54 2775.7 560.3 2667.1 551.3 PIMP
TPPS 54 54 1042.3 515.4 737.4 846.0 TPPS
TPPJ 54 54 2677.9 1712.7 3108.3 653.0 TPPJ
TPBN 54 54 315.8 254.3 640.1 203.3 TPBN
TPPK 54 54 257.4 135.7 406.4 66.8145 TPPK
TPSW 54 54 468.6 265.2 413.8 63.6918 TPSW
TPPI 54 54 4778.7 2636.3 5322.6 1152.4 TPPI
KBIN 54 54 24935.9 501.4 24531.7 1084.2 KBIN
KBSU 54 54 5717.5 130.8 5575.8 780.0 KBSU
KBJW 54 54 13034.7 242.7 13099.4 198.5 KBJW
KBBN 54 54 1467.8 38.0620 1454.2 25.9600 KBBN
KBKN 54 54 1314.1 43.5719 1306.8 41.3117 KBKN
KBSW 54 54 1782.7 58.3222 1476.6 105.8 KBSW
AREA 54 54 1063.9 542.5 1182.6 226.4 AREA
ARLS 54 54 259.7 110.3 195.3 195.4 ARLS
ARLJ 54 54 519.3 331.0 602.8 126.7 ARLJ
ALBN 54 54 66.6073 51.4957 135.5 40.8240 ALBN
ARLK 54 54 74.5247 38.6624 117.8 17.3132 ARLK
ALSW 54 54 107.5 60.5513 94.8939 13.9309 ALSW
QSBR 54 54 4121.9 1450.8 4970.4 544.8 QSBR
Lampiran 18. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Penyaluran Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode I
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 14 To 53
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 16 16 1177.2 174.8 1066.4 518.4 PGTP
PGSU 16 16 1293.4 186.3 1165.7 436.3 PGSU
PGJW 16 16 1151.5 186.2 1116.1 270.5 PGJW
PGBN 16 16 1063.5 165.1 1178.5 180.8 PGBN
PGKN 16 16 1422.4 229.7 1773.4 153.8 PGKN
PGSW 16 16 1102.7 152.1 1537.8 130.9 PGSW
PBIN 16 16 2493.7 320.9 2875.5 550.4 PBIN
PBSU 16 16 2855.3 442.0 3196.1 532.2 PBSU
PBJW 16 16 2458.6 336.1 2770.9 199.8 PBJW
PBBN 16 16 2418.1 381.8 3154.8 160.6 PBBN
PBKN 16 16 2246.0 292.6 2977.3 178.8 PBKN
PBSW 16 16 2316.8 443.9 3841.7 486.8 PBSW
STCK 16 16 1191.0 414.1 2845.8 424.4 STCK
IMPR 16 16 48.4600 53.2463 75.7360 40.9874 IMPR
PIMP 16 16 2886.7 700.5 2674.8 637.4 PIMP
TPPS 16 16 1484.4 580.2 806.0 306.6 TPPS
TPPJ 16 16 4161.7 1935.5 3781.1 809.1 TPPJ
TPBN 16 16 576.2 318.8 873.8 212.7 TPBN
TPPK 16 16 381.1 70.5052 420.8 69.0793 TPPK
TPSW 16 16 586.2 294.2 462.2 29.1812 TPSW
TPPI 16 16 7215.3 2900.0 6369.7 988.7 TPPI
KBIN 16 16 24811.3 514.4 24124.4 503.4 KBIN
KBSU 16 16 5707.3 132.1 5495.0 120.8 KBSU
KBJW 16 16 12960.8 227.6 12828.6 184.9 KBJW
KBBN 16 16 1456.1 39.2218 1409.6 23.9174 KBBN
KBKN 16 16 1301.4 36.2903 1314.9 40.2964 KBKN
KBSW 16 16 1767.1 57.6605 1457.7 208.4 KBSW
AREA 16 16 1577.0 576.2 1380.8 187.5 AREA
ARLS 16 16 377.7 103.3 208.9 51.1138 ARLS
ARLJ 16 16 802.7 372.8 731.3 163.4 ARLJ
ALBN 16 16 118.1 64.4612 179.1 43.6414 ALBN
ARLK 16 16 108.0 18.7113 119.5 19.2441 ARLK
ALSW 16 16 134.1 67.2614 105.8 6.5699 ALSW
QSBR 16 16 5238.7 1577.5 6586.2 874.1 QSBR
Lampiran 18. Lanjutan
Penyaluran Wilayah Periode I
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 14 To 53
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 16 16 1177.2 174.8 1244.1 423.9 PGTP
PGSU 16 16 1293.4 186.3 1011.3 496.7 PGSU
PGJW 16 16 1151.5 186.2 806.1 364.7 PGJW
PGBN 16 16 1063.5 165.1 747.4 259.7 PGBN
PGKN 16 16 1422.4 229.7 1773.4 153.8 PGKN
PGSW 16 16 1102.7 152.1 1300.5 66.5922 PGSW
PBIN 16 16 2493.7 320.9 3139.1 429.4 PBIN
PBSU 16 16 2855.3 442.0 2927.9 626.4 PBSU
PBJW 16 16 2458.6 336.1 2293.7 335.9 PBJW
PBBN 16 16 2418.1 381.8 2409.0 195.3 PBBN
PBKN 16 16 2246.0 292.6 2977.3 178.8 PBKN
PBSW 16 16 2316.8 443.9 3020.2 234.2 PBSW
STCK 16 16 1191.0 414.1 2857.5 432.5 STCK
IMPR 16 16 48.4600 53.2463 76.6382 41.4571 IMPR
PIMP 16 16 2886.7 700.5 2674.8 637.4 PIMP
TPPS 16 16 1484.4 580.2 704.5 324.0 TPPS
TPPJ 16 16 4161.7 1935.5 3337.6 798.3 TPPJ
TPBN 16 16 576.2 318.8 681.0 128.0 TPBN
TPPK 16 16 381.1 70.5052 420.8 69.0793 TPPK
TPSW 16 16 586.2 294.2 427.7 35.0272 TPSW
TPPI 16 16 7215.3 2900.0 5597.4 924.5 TPPI
KBIN 16 16 24811.3 514.4 24793.3 366.8 KBIN
KBSU 16 16 5707.3 132.1 5605.7 155.7 KBSU
KBJW 16 16 12960.8 227.6 13167.4 94.3969 KBJW
KBBN 16 16 1456.1 39.2218 1463.6 15.3462 KBBN
KBKN 16 16 1301.4 36.2903 1314.9 40.2964 KBKN
KBSW 16 16 1767.1 57.6605 1623.0 106.9 KBSW
AREA 16 16 1577.0 576.2 1221.0 164.6 AREA
ARLS 16 16 377.7 103.3 183.2 61.9033 ARLS
ARLJ 16 16 802.7 372.8 644.7 156.5 ARLJ
ALBN 16 16 118.1 64.4612 139.5 25.9054 ALBN
ARLK 16 16 108.0 18.7113 119.5 19.2441 ARLK
ALSW 16 16 134.1 67.2614 97.8760 7.9842 ALSW
QSBR 16 16 5238.7 1577.5 6118.5 740.5 QSBR
Lampiran 19. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kenaikan Penyaluran Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode II
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 38 38 1184.3 189.2 1504.9 675.7 PGTP
PGSU 38 38 1217.5 204.7 1469.5 1038.6 PGSU
PGJW 38 38 1174.3 173.3 1263.1 341.6 PGJW
PGBN 38 38 1085.9 161.2 1367.1 266.7 PGBN
PGKN 38 38 1275.2 215.0 1828.0 189.3 PGKN
PGSW 38 38 1054.3 128.0 1741.5 142.4 PGSW
PBIN 38 38 2407.7 274.0 3381.4 786.3 PBIN
PBSU 38 38 2696.8 376.9 3635.2 1413.4 PBSU
PBJW 38 38 2367.3 290.1 2880.9 274.9 PBJW
PBBN 38 38 2321.5 341.5 3289.5 171.4 PBBN
PBKN 38 38 2129.3 330.1 3065.9 202.4 PBKN
PBSW 38 38 2126.0 316.5 4468.2 512.0 PBSW
STCK 38 38 1559.2 412.4 1182.6 532.1 STCK
IMPR 38 38 40.4158 41.3001 85.8385 50.9745 IMPR
PIMP 38 38 2728.9 493.1 2663.2 516.4 PIMP
TPPS 38 38 856.1 352.1 1081.1 704.9 TPPS
TPPJ 38 38 2053.2 1153.4 3620.2 680.0 TPPJ
TPBN 38 38 206.2 98.6964 802.4 242.8 TPBN
TPPK 38 38 205.3 122.3 391.9 64.0725 TPPK
TPSW 38 38 419.1 239.1 451.9 74.3615 TPSW
TPPI 38 38 3752.8 1702.3 6360.3 1048.8 TPPI
KBIN 38 38 24988.3 493.3 23313.5 855.0 KBIN
KBSU 38 38 5721.8 131.8 5193.7 568.3 KBSU
KBJW 38 38 13065.9 244.9 12565.6 265.8 KBJW
KBBN 38 38 1472.8 36.9696 1386.9 22.1265 KBBN
KBKN 38 38 1319.5 45.6764 1312.6 42.9186 KBKN
KBSW 38 38 1789.3 58.0963 1235.7 224.1 KBSW
AREA 38 38 847.9 353.9 1408.2 216.5 AREA
ARLS 38 38 210.0 67.3760 276.0 159.6 ARLS
ARLJ 38 38 399.9 226.4 704.1 135.5 ARLJ
ALBN 38 38 44.9208 21.9956 173.3 52.0884 ALBN
ARLK 38 38 60.4220 36.1919 114.7 17.1304 ARLK
ALSW 38 38 96.2830 54.6183 103.8 16.2760 ALSW
QSBR 38 38 3651.7 1113.4 5125.1 456.4 QSBR
Lampiran 19. Lanjutan
Penyaluran Wilayah Periode II
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
PGTP 38 38 1184.3 189.2 1777.5 602.9 PGTP
PGSU 38 38 1217.5 204.7 1269.8 1078.9 PGSU
PGJW 38 38 1174.3 173.3 950.1 393.0 PGJW
PGBN 38 38 1085.9 161.2 947.6 306.4 PGBN
PGKN 38 38 1275.2 215.0 1828.0 189.3 PGKN
PGSW 38 38 1054.3 128.0 1453.9 122.9 PGSW
PBIN 38 38 2407.7 274.0 3782.9 700.0 PBIN
PBSU 38 38 2696.8 376.9 3298.0 1476.2 PBSU
PBJW 38 38 2367.3 290.1 2404.3 357.5 PBJW
PBBN 38 38 2321.5 341.5 2571.2 273.9 PBBN
PBKN 38 38 2129.3 330.1 3065.9 202.4 PBKN
PBSW 38 38 2126.0 316.5 3490.8 394.3 PBSW
STCK 38 38 1559.2 412.4 1209.2 525.9 STCK
IMPR 38 38 40.4158 41.3001 86.8167 51.1336 IMPR
PIMP 38 38 2728.9 493.1 2663.2 516.4 PIMP
TPPS 38 38 856.1 352.1 930.3 726.4 TPPS
TPPJ 38 38 2053.2 1153.4 3146.3 610.0 TPPJ
TPBN 38 38 206.2 98.6964 595.8 191.4 TPBN
TPPK 38 38 205.3 122.3 391.9 64.0725 TPPK
TPSW 38 38 419.1 239.1 404.9 67.8843 TPSW
TPPI 38 38 3752.8 1702.3 5482.1 948.8 TPPI
KBIN 38 38 24988.3 493.3 24213.0 876.4 KBIN
KBSU 38 38 5721.8 131.8 5368.2 611.9 KBSU
KBJW 38 38 13065.9 244.9 13001.3 174.4 KBJW
KBBN 38 38 1472.8 36.9696 1446.2 20.6637 KBBN
KBKN 38 38 1319.5 45.6764 1312.6 42.9186 KBKN
KBSW 38 38 1789.3 58.0963 1465.6 128.6 KBSW
AREA 38 38 847.9 353.9 1223.5 192.8 AREA
ARLS 38 38 210.0 67.3760 239.0 166.0 ARLS
ARLJ 38 38 399.9 226.4 611.8 120.5 ARLJ
ALBN 38 38 44.9208 21.9956 128.7 40.9480 ALBN
ARLK 38 38 60.4220 36.1919 114.7 17.1304 ARLK
ALSW 38 38 96.2830 54.6183 92.9693 14.7942 ALSW
QSBR 38 38 3651.7 1113.4 4606.6 420.5 QSBR
Lampiran 20. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kombinasi Kenaikan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah dan Tarif Impor Masing-masing
Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode Agregat
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
54 54 1182.2 183.4 1705.3 784.5 PGTP PGSU
54 54 1240.0 200.8 1532.0 1151.8 PGSU PGJW
54 54 1167.5 175.8 1261.0 373.4 PGJW PGBN
54 54 1079.3 161.1 1359.2 282.5 PGBN PGKN
54 54 1318.8 227.6 2053.1 195.0 PGKN PGSW
54 54 1068.6 136.0 2006.7 178.7 PGSW PBIN
54 54 2433.2 288.3 3689.2 946.3 PBIN PBSU
54 54 2743.8 399.7 3764.9 1612.7 PBSU PBJW
54 54 2394.3 304.1 2915.0 318.8 PBJW PBBN
54 54 2350.1 353.1 3298.7 182.5 PBBN PBKN
54 54 2163.9 321.2 3254.0 222.5 PBKN PBSW
54 54 2182.5 365.2 5205.5 612.5 PBSW STCK
54 54 1450.1 442.8 1395.1 670.4 STCK IMPR
54 54 42.7993 44.7987 61.5967 52.7020 IMPR PIMP
54 54 2775.7 560.3 3797.1 759.1 PIMP TPPS
54 54 1042.3 515.4 1086.5 833.0 TPPS TPPJ
54 54 2677.9 1712.7 3716.9 702.8 TPPJ TPBN
54 54 315.8 254.3 895.5 250.2 TPBN TPPK
54 54 257.4 135.7 447.5 73.4978 TPPK TPSW
54 54 468.6 265.2 508.2 77.0528 TPSW TPPI
54 54 4778.7 2636.3 6671.3 1232.7 TPPI KBIN
54 54 24935.9 501.4 23071.1 958.7 KBIN KBSU
54 54 5717.5 130.8 5170.0 708.3 KBSU KBJW
54 54 13034.7 242.7 12527.9 230.2 KBJW KBBN
54 54 1467.8 38.0620 1387.1 19.4167 KBBN KBKN
54 54 1314.1 43.5719 1305.3 41.6601 KBKN KBSW
54 54 1782.7 58.3222 1061.9 248.9 KBSW AREA
54 54 1063.9 542.5 1476.3 243.5 AREA ARLS
54 54 259.7 110.3 282.7 188.6 ARLS ARLJ
54 54 519.3 331.0 721.1 137.6 ARLJ ALBN
54 54 66.6073 51.4957 189.9 51.0480 ALBN ARLK
54 54 74.5247 38.6624 129.7 19.1439 ARLK ALSW
54 54 107.5 60.5513 116.6 16.9575 ALSW QSBR
54 54 4121.9 1450.8 4862.9 556.3 QSBR
Lampiran 21. Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kombinasi Kenaikan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah dan Tarif Impor Masing-masing
Sebesar 5 Persen Tahun 2004-2008 Periode Periode I
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 14 To 53
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
16 16 1177.2 174.8 1357.6 414.0 PGTP PGSU
16 16 1293.4 186.3 1317.2 409.3 PGSU PGJW
16 16 1151.5 186.2 1170.7 268.2 PGJW PGBN
16 16 1063.5 165.1 1228.7 181.1 PGBN PGKN
16 16 1422.4 229.7 1984.1 168.4 PGKN PGSW
16 16 1102.7 152.1 1721.6 193.1 PGSW PBIN
16 16 2493.7 320.9 3281.5 439.7 PBIN PBSU
16 16 2855.3 442.0 3450.2 501.5 PBSU PBJW
16 16 2458.6 336.1 2853.9 202.5 PBJW PBBN
16 16 2418.1 381.8 3195.9 168.3 PBBN PBKN
16 16 2246.0 292.6 3149.5 212.3 PBKN PBSW
16 16 2316.8 443.9 4306.6 658.0 PBSW STCK
16 16 1191.0 414.1 2694.9 377.1 STCK IMPR
16 16 48.4600 53.2463 53.2361 45.9703 IMPR PIMP
16 16 2886.7 700.5 3791.7 804.7 PIMP TPBI
16 16 4557.7 1830.7 4199.8 654.1 TPBI TPBS
16 16 924.8 361.5 565.6 193.8 TPBS TPBJ
16 16 2592.7 1205.8 2406.3 505.7 TPBJ TPBB
16 16 359.0 198.6 559.3 138.3 TPBB TPBK
16 16 237.4 43.9247 284.9 50.2161 TPBK TPBSW
16 16 365.2 183.3 305.1 19.8767 TPBSW TPPS
16 16 1484.4 580.2 907.9 311.0 TPPS TPPJ
16 16 4161.7 1935.5 3862.5 811.7 TPPJ TPBN
16 16 576.2 318.8 897.7 222.1 TPBN TPPK
16 16 381.1 70.5052 457.3 80.6037 TPPK TPSW
16 16 586.2 294.2 489.8 31.9049 TPSW TPPI
16 16 7215.3 2900.0 6640.8 1037.8 TPPI KBIN
16 16 24811.3 514.4 23854.7 629.7 KBIN KBSU
16 16 5707.3 132.1 5386.5 134.1 KBSU KBJW
16 16 12960.8 227.6 12766.3 214.2 KBJW KBBN
16 16 1456.1 39.2218 1406.5 24.9274 KBBN KBKN
16 16 1301.4 36.2903 1313.8 40.8411 KBKN KBSW
16 16 1767.1 57.6605 1363.0 264.2 KBSW AREA
16 16 1577.0 576.2 1444.2 201.1 AREA ARLS
16 16 377.7 103.3 234.9 46.2398 ARLS ARLJ
16 16 802.7 372.8 747.1 164.4 ARLJ ALBN
16 16 118.1 64.4612 184.0 45.5554 ALBN ARLK
16 16 108.0 18.7113 129.9 22.5681 ARLK ALSW
16 16 134.1 67.2614 112.1 7.1549 ALSW QSBR
16 16 5238.7 1577.5 6091.8 754.2 QSBR
Lampiran 22.Hasil Simulasi Kebijakan Kombinasi Kenaikan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah dan Tarif Impor Masing-masing
Sebesar 5 Persen Periode Tahun 2004-2008 Periode II
The SAS System
The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range Bulan = 7 To 60
Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label PGTP
38 38 1184.3 189.2 1893.4 621.6 PGTP PGSU
38 38 1217.5 204.7 1684.4 1037.4 PGSU PGJW
38 38 1174.3 173.3 1323.6 352.8 PGJW PGBN
38 38 1085.9 161.2 1417.7 270.0 PGBN PGKN
38 38 1275.2 215.0 2052.5 189.9 PGKN PGSW
38 38 1054.3 128.0 1970.6 185.7 PGSW PBIN
38 38 2407.7 274.0 3925.3 744.2 PBIN PBSU
38 38 2696.8 376.9 3989.6 1421.7 PBSU PBJW
38 38 2367.3 290.1 2972.4 293.8 PBJW PBBN
38 38 2321.5 341.5 3332.3 183.2 PBBN PBKN
38 38 2129.3 330.1 3259.3 223.5 PBKN PBSW
38 38 2126.0 316.5 5082.3 654.2 PBSW STCK
38 38 1559.2 412.4 919.0 599.5 STCK IMPR
38 38 40.4158 41.3001 63.8518 57.6440 IMPR PIMP
38 38 2728.9 493.1 3797.6 743.6 PIMP TPBI
38 38 2370.0 1074.1 4219.9 700.7 TPBI TPBS
38 38 533.4 219.3 775.8 444.7 TPBS TPBJ
38 38 1279.1 718.6 2314.0 429.5 TPBJ TPBB
38 38 128.4 61.4878 516.2 154.6 TPBB TPBK
38 38 127.9 76.1971 268.7 45.1984 TPBK TPPS
38 38 856.1 352.1 1245.3 713.8 TPPS TPPJ
38 38 2053.2 1153.4 3714.3 689.4 TPPJ TPBN
38 38 206.2 98.6964 828.6 248.2 TPBN TPPK
38 38 205.3 122.3 431.3 72.5497 TPPK TPSW
38 38 419.1 239.1 489.8 82.1489 TPSW TPPI
38 38 3752.8 1702.3 6722.2 1124.1 TPPI KBIN
38 38 24988.3 493.3 22889.1 947.8 KBIN KBSU
38 38 5721.8 131.8 5006.9 562.6 KBSU KBJW
38 38 13065.9 244.9 12478.9 291.2 KBJW KBBN
38 38 1472.8 36.9696 1383.4 22.8068 KBBN KBKN
38 38 1319.5 45.6764 1311.2 43.3466 KBKN KBSW
38 38 1789.3 58.0963 1089.6 286.2 KBSW AREA
38 38 847.9 353.9 1493.0 234.8 AREA ARLS
38 38 210.0 67.3760 316.7 160.0 ARLS ARLJ
38 38 399.9 226.4 722.3 136.9 ARLJ ALBN
38 38 44.9208 21.9956 179.0 53.2448 ALBN ARLK
38 38 60.4220 36.1919 126.3 19.5273 ARLK ALSW
38 38 96.2830 54.6183 112.5 18.0711 ALSW QSBR
38 38 3651.7 1113.4 4525.4 440.4 QSBR
ABSTRACT
JAN PITER SINAGA, Indonesia Rice Policy Impact Analysis: Disaggregate Regions and Harvested Pattern Model HARIANTO as the Chairman and
NUNUNG KUSNADI as Member of the Advisory Committe
The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of rice policy on rice economy based on harvested pattern in national and regional level. For that
purpose, disaggregation data are collected by months and regions Sumatera, Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. Econometric model is
formulated as a simultaneous equations and estimated using Two Stages Least Squares 2SLS method. Rice policy aims not only to protect producer and
domestic prices stabilization but also to provide rice to specified target-group of consumers through reserves and distribution mechanism. The results revealed that
the model is able to well discribe the variation impact of rice policy in national and regional level. Furtheremore, this result supported previous finding indicated
that the rice producer in some regions are unlikely benefited from the rice policy especialy during harvested period. Therefore, government intervention in terms of
stabilizing price needs to be reviewed to reach it’s targeted objectives.
Key words: price stabilization, reserves and distribution mechanism, rice policy, variation impact
I. PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakang
Beras merupakan bahan pangan pokok bagi penduduk Indonesia pada umumnya, khususnya sebagai sumber penyediaan energi dan protein. Neraca
Bahan Makanan NBM Indonesia menyebutkan bahwa kelompok padi-padian memberikan sumbangan sebesar 64.02 persen dari total ketersediaan energi 2,919
kalori per kapita per hari dan sebesar 46.65 gram per kapita per hari dari ketersediaan protein Badan Ketahanan Pangan, 2008. Pengeluaran rumahtangga
untuk kelompok padi-padian diperkirakan mencapai 11.37 persen, sedangkan pengeluaran rumahtangga di pedesaan sebesar 16.65 persen dari total pengeluaran
rumahtangga Susenas 2006 Badan Pusat Statistik, 2006. Beras merupakan komoditi yang fluktuasi harganya sering menjadi sorotan
publik sehingga pemerintah dan masyarakat berkepentingan terhadap harga komoditi beras yang relatif stabil Sumaryoto, 2009. Mengingat peran beras
sebagai komoditi strategis tersebut, maka beras merupakan komoditi yang sarat akan intervensi kebijakan pemerintah termasuk kebijakan stabilisasi harga gabah
petani dan harga beras konsumen. Kebijakan sudah dilakukan sejak tahun 1968 saat pemberlakuan harga dasar.
Pelaksanaan kebijakan stabilisasi harga gabah dan harga beras dilakukan dengan cara mengelola buffer stok melalui pengadaan gabah di tingkat petani pada
saat panen raya dan penyaluran pada saat musim paceklik. Pengelolaan pengadaan dan penyaluran diserahkan pada Bulog untuk melaksanakan kebijakan pembelian
gabah petani dan operasi pasar murah OPM. Kebijakan harga dasar berfungsi untuk meningkatkan rata-rata harga gabah petani. Kebijakan ini bertujuan untuk
meningkatkan pendapatan petani dan mempersempit kisaran fluktuasi harga gabah melalui pengadaan sebesar harga dasar yang telah ditetapkan untuk meningkatkan
stabilistas harga gabah yang diterima petani terutama saat panen raya Indonesia memiliki variasi agroekosistem di masing-masing wilayah
sehingga mengakibatkan perbedaan potensi produksi padi suatu wilayah dan perbedaan pola panen padi yang disebut sebagai variasi antar waktu panen padi.
Pola panen wilayah Sumatera dan Jawa berbeda dengan pola panen wilayah lainnya. Periode panen raya di wilayah Bali dan Nusa Tenggara berlangsung
singkat yaitu bulan Maret-Mei. Wilayah ini tidak mengalami masa panen gadu sehingga periode bukan panen berlangsung lebih lama. Wilayah Kalimantan
memiliki dua periode puncak panen bulan Maret dan Agustus dan memiliki 2 periode panen raya yaitu Februari-Mei dan Juli-Oktober. Pola panen Sulawesi juga
memiliki dua periode 2 periode panen raya yaitu Maret-Juni dan Juli-Oktober. Hal ini menyebabkan produksi padi nasional tidak dihasilkan merata antar
wilayah dan antar waktu sepanjang periode satu tahun. Sepanjang periode satu tahun terdapat kondisi surplus produksi beras Indonesia pada bulan Februari-Mei
dan kondisi cukup sampai dengan bulan Agustus. Perimbangan produksi, ketersediaan dan kebutuhan beras mengalami defisit memasuki antara bulan
September-Januari. Infrastruktur fisik wilayah juga memiliki kondisi yang berbeda-beda pula. Perbedaan ini akan mempengaruhi harga gabah dan harga
beras di pasar masing-masing wilayah. Variasi antar waktu dan antar wilayah tersebut merupakan faktor penting yang harus dipertimbangankan pemerintah
dalam menerapkan suatu kebijakan perberasan termasuk kebijakan stabilisasi harga gabah produsen dan harga beras konsumen.
Sumber: Badan Ketahanan Pangan, 2007
Gambar 1. Perimbangan Produksi, Ketersediaan dan Kebutuhan Beras Indonesia Meskipun secara aggregat tahunan dan aggregat nasional tujuan kebijakan
stabilisasi harga gabah tercapai, tetapi di tingkat wilayah kebijakan tersebut justru dapat mengakibatkan pendapatan petani semakin menurun. Kisaran fluktuasi
harga gabah semakin lebar pada periode tertentu seperti periode panen raya nasional Februari-Mei sehingga dapat merugikan produsen padi di wilayah
tersebut. Harga rata-rata gabah petani Indonesia sebesar Rp. 2,240 per kilogram
gabah pada periode Februari-Mei 2008 sedangkan harga gabah petani setiap wilayah berbeda-beda. Harga gabah petani Bali dan Nusa Tenggara serta Sulawesi
berada di bawah harga dasar sebesar Rp. 2,200 per kilogram gabh. Harga gabah petani Bali dan Nusa Tenggara Rp. 1,999 per kilogram sedangkan harga gabah
petani Sulawesi adalah sebesar Rp. 1,918 per kilogram. Harga gabah petani Sumatera dan Kalimantan berada di atas harga dasar dengan harga gabah petani
masing-masing sebesar Rp. 2,451 per kilogram gabah dan Rp. 2,795 per kilogram,
- 2,000
4,000 6,000
8,000 10,000
12,000
Jan Peb
Mar April
Mei Juni
Juli Agus
Sept Okt
Nov Des
Produksi Padi Ketrs. Beras
Produksi Ketersediaan
Kebutuhan konsumsi
beras 139.15 KgKapthn.
SURPLUS CUKUP
DEFISIT
