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LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Data dan Sumber Data
LATMWIT1 LATMWIT2
LATMWIT3 LATMWIT
QCPO1 QCPO2
QCPO3 QCPO
YWIT1 YWIT2
YWIT3 YWIT
000 ha 000 ha
000 ha 000 ha
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
tonha tonha
tonha tonha
1983 1.31
180.06 69.81 251.17 3.45 710.43 269.10 982.99
2.65 3.95
3.85 3.91
1984 2.23
214.10 80.02 296.34 4.03 814.02 329.14 1,147.19
1.81 3.80
4.11 3.87
1985 28.42
232.41 87.91 348.74 43.02 861.17 339.24 1,243.43
1.51 3.71
3.86 3.57
1986 45.17
241.32 87.59 374.08 53.50 912.31 384.92 1,350.73
1.18 3.78
4.39 3.61
1987 48.47
272.58 100.20 421.24 165.16 988.48 352.41 1,506.06
3.41 3.63
3.52 3.58
1988 55.27
300.85 99.23 455.34 156.15 1,102.69 454.50 1,713.34
2.83 3.67
4.58 3.76
1989 183.20
301.11 101.36 585.66 183.69 1,184.23 597.04 1,964.95
1.00 3.93
5.89 3.36
1990 152.40
317.28 208.35 678.03 376.95 1,247.16 788.51 2,412.61
2.47 3.93
3.78 3.56
1991 189.70
348.51 234.04 772.25 413.32 1,360.36 883.92 2,657.60
2.18 3.90
3.78 3.44
1992 209.28
350.99 285.05 845.32 699.61 1,489.75 1,076.90 3,266.25
3.34 4.24
3.78 3.86
1993 233.29
348.43 338.96 920.68 582.02 1,469.16 1,370.27 3,421.45
2.49 4.22
4.04 3.72
1994 291.49
351.04 403.03 1,045.56 839.33 1,571.50 1,597.23 4,008.06
2.88 4.48
3.96 3.83
1995 368.85
370.99 498.86 1,238.70 1,001.44 1,613.85 1,864.38 4,479.67
2.72 4.35
3.74 3.62
1996 437.20
384.09 607.06 1,428.35 1,133.55 1,706.85 2,058.26 4,898.66
2.59 4.44
3.39 3.43
1997 492.20
398.83 684.09 1,575.12 1,282.82 1,586.88 2,578.81 5,448.51
2.61 3.98
3.77 3.46
1998 540.90
418.15 740.42 1,699.48 1,344.57 1,501.75 3,084.10 5,930.42
2.49 3.59
4.17 3.49
1999 728.49
469.81 1,198.21 2,396.51 1,547.81 1,468.95 3,438.83 6,455.59
2.12 3.13
2.87 2.69
2000 800.20
475.19 1,242.72 2,518.11 1,905.65 1,460.95 3,633.90 7,000.51
2.38 3.07
2.92 2.78
2001 1,059.88
494.45 1,401.79 2,956.11 2,798.03 1,519.29 4,079.15 8,396.47
2.64 3.07
2.91 2.84
2002 1,250.91
525.89 1,530.61 3,307.42 3,426.74 1,607.73 4,587.87 9,622.35
2.74 3.06
3.00 2.91
2003 1,278.95
538.22 1,611.41 3,428.58 3,517.32 1,750.65 5,172.86 10,440.83 2.75
3.25 3.21
3.05 2004
1,542.83 574.22 1,818.93 3,935.98 3,847.16 1,617.71 5,365.53 10,830.39
2.49 2.82
2.95 2.75
2005 1,675.19
619.83 2,099.05 4,394.07 4,500.77 1,449.25 5,911.59 11,861.62 2.69
2.34 2.82
2.70 2006
1,990.53 643.64 2,252.30 4,886.46 5,783.09 2,313.73 9,254.03 17,350.85
2.91 3.59
4.11 3.55
2007 1,841.73
646.07 2,275.27 4,763.06 6,358.39 2,117.04 9,189.30 17,664.73 3.45
3.28 4.04
3.71 2008
2,195.03 592.59 2,557.99 5,345.60 6,923.04 1,938.13 8,678.61 17,539.79
3.15 3.27
3.39 3.28
Sumber Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun TAHUN
1
Defenisi masing-masing peubah dapat dilihat pada Bab IV dan Lampiran 2
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
LATMRET1 LATMRET2
LATMRET3 LATMRET
QRET1 QRET2
QRET3 QRET
YRET1 YRET2
YRET3 YRET
000 ha 000 ha
000 ha 000 ha
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
tonha tonha
tonha tonha
1983 1,293.72
173.86 133.73
1,601.31 673.56
200.53 132.90
1,006.98 0.52
1.15 0.99
0.63 1984
1,412.10 157.42
136.66 1,706.17
704.21 207.60
120.79 1,032.60
0.50 1.32
0.88 0.61
1985 1,396.58
166.01 129.81
1,692.40 719.83
211.49 123.65
1,054.97 0.52
1.27 0.95
0.62 1986
1,452.60 162.57
132.17 1,747.34
763.15 200.29
149.69 1,113.13
0.53 1.23
1.13 0.64
1987 1,462.49
169.96 141.75
1,774.20 795.17
200.47 134.71
1,130.35 0.54
1.18 0.95
0.64 1988
1,470.99 188.78
134.93 1,794.69
838.87 202.59
131.84 1,173.30
0.57 1.07
0.98 0.65
1989 1,513.00
178.23 137.67
1,828.90 853.20
215.30 140.54
1,209.04 0.56
1.21 1.02
0.66 1990
1,432.84 181.67
145.05 1,759.56
913.43 216.70
145.17 1,275.30
0.64 1.19
1.00 0.72
1991 1,486.01
182.93 133.94
1,802.88 971.39
200.68 156.10
1,328.17 0.65
1.10 1.17
0.74 1992
1,646.76 185.69
133.85 1,966.29
1,030.38 205.40
162.67 1,398.45
0.63 1.11
1.22 0.71
1993 1,725.28
196.80 143.40
2,065.47 1,102.01
207.43 166.01
1,475.44 0.64
1.05 1.16
0.71 1994
1,729.70 188.73
149.43 2,067.86
1,138.89 188.12
172.41 1,499.42
0.66 1.00
1.15 0.73
1995 1,788.79
190.98 150.66
2,130.43 1,191.14
199.94 182.22
1,573.30 0.67
1.05 1.21
0.74 1996
1,908.41 187.15
150.19 2,245.75
1,193.15 202.02
178.86 1,574.03
0.63 1.08
1.19 0.70
1997 1,815.66
179.32 156.66
2,151.64 1,174.47
187.77 190.34
1,552.59 0.65
1.05 1.22
0.72 1998
1,941.77 179.62
168.70 2,290.09
1,242.75 192.51
226.64 1,661.90
0.64 1.07
1.34 0.73
1999 1,967.42
168.29 136.79
2,272.50 1,206.41
181.52 216.43
1,604.36 0.61
1.08 1.58
0.71 2000
1,967.99 170.10
147.87 2,285.96
1,125.16 169.87
206.40 1,501.43
0.57 1.00
1.40 0.66
2001 1,980.52
175.30 153.17
2,308.99 1,209.28
182.58 215.60
1,607.46 0.61
1.04 1.41
0.70 2002
1,988.50 178.58
167.29 2,334.37
1,226.65 186.54
217.18 1,630.36
0.62 1.04
1.30 0.70
2003 2,099.74
187.06 171.02
2,457.82 1,396.24
191.70 204.41
1,792.35 0.66
1.02 1.20
0.73 2004
2,247.54 189.23
173.25 2,610.02
1,662.02 196.09
207.71 2,065.82
0.74 1.04
1.20 0.79
2005 2,247.54
201.33 185.32
2,634.19 1,838.67
209.84 222.38
2,270.89 0.82
1.04 1.20
0.86 2006
2,333.87 204.56
187.42 2,725.86
2,082.60 265.81
288.82 2,637.23
0.89 1.30
1.54 0.97
2007 2,381.47
205.30 188.78
2,775.55 2,176.69
277.20 301.29
2,755.17 0.91
1.35 1.60
0.99 2008
2,374.62 205.50
188.61 2,768.73
2,173.62 276.81
300.86 2,751.29
0.92 1.35
1.60 0.99
Sumber Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun TAHUN
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
XCPO MCPO
STCPO DDCPO
DCPOMG DCPOL
XRET MRET
STRET DDRET
DRETIB DRETL
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
1983 345.78
0.08 92.00
718.08 478.40
239.68 938.03
0.37 75.00
68.00 37.40
30.60 1984
127.94 57.63
93.00 1,045.63
612.80 432.83
1,009.56 0.02
95.00 65.00
35.75 29.25
1985 518.76
37.18 262.00
760.33 642.20
118.13 987.77
0.04 90.00
80.00 44.00
36.00 1986
566.89 8.79
90.00 623.79
524.80 98.99
958.69 0.15
90.00 93.00
51.15 41.85
1987 551.12
165.99 183.00
874.99 702.60
172.39 1,092.53
- 100.00
98.00 53.90
44.10 1988
852.84 302.19
265.00 1,088.19
774.00 314.19
1,132.13 -
100.00 103.00
56.65 46.35
1989 781.84
412.39 426.00
1,932.14 948.00
984.14 1,151.41
0.82 110.00
105.00 57.75
47.25 1990 1,015.58
26.18 200.00
2,267.09 1,623.00
644.09 1,077.33
0.79 114.00
108.00 59.40
48.60 1991 1,167.69
37.87 240.00
2,246.47 1,528.00
718.47 1,220.02
1.25 110.00
110.00 60.50
49.50 1992 1,030.27
308.74 485.00
3,437.74 2,545.00
892.74 1,267.61
0.68 110.00
116.00 63.80
52.20 1993 1,632.01
151.94 550.00
2,775.92 2,201.00
574.92 1,214.57
0.82 80.00
117.00 64.35
52.65 1994 1,631.20
123.64 380.00
2,965.18 2,334.00
631.18 1,244.95
2.32 80.00
116.00 63.80
52.20 1995 1,265.02
49.79 550.00
4,102.58 3,216.00
886.58 1,324.30
7.57 110.00
133.00 73.15
59.85 1996 1,671.96
107.55 860.00
3,468.09 3,333.00
135.09 1,434.29
4.73 70.00
142.00 78.10
63.90 1997 2,967.59
91.68 510.00
3,353.48 2,439.00
914.48 1,404.01
6.60 40.00
141.00 77.55
63.45 1998 1,479.28
17.62 700.00
5,268.16 4,179.00
1,089.16 1,641.19
13.57 30.00
97.00 53.35
43.65 1999 3,298.99
1.65 860.00
2,700.92 2,547.00
153.92 1,494.54
17.96 33.00
116.00 63.80
52.20 2000 4,110.03
4.35 750.00
3,428.07 3,361.00
67.07 1,379.61
32.55 110.00
132.00 80.72
51.28 2001 4,903.22
0.14 975.00
4,158.49 4,117.00
41.49 1,453.38
9.30 26.00
145.00 90.08
54.92 2002 6,333.71
9.50 700.00
4,822.82 3,491.00
1,331.82 1,495.99
9.91 25.00
145.00 102.21
42.79 2003 6,386.41
4.01 530.40
5,281.16 3,927.00
1,354.16 1,662.21
17.84 23.00
156.00 115.65
40.35 2004 8,661.65
4.32 448.80
3,928.34 2,978.00
950.34 1,874.26
7.65 25.00
196.00 133.53
62.47 2005 10,375.79
10.81 649.94
2,373.13 1,387.00
986.13 2,024.59
6.69 57.00
221.00 155.41
65.59 2006 10,471.92
1.65 741.17
2,287.68 1,172.00
1,115.68 2,286.90
6.91 60.00
355.00 177.52
177.48 2007 11,875.42
1.07 976.25
5,555.29 4,099.80
1,455.49 2,407.97
9.92 26.00
391.00 215.05
175.95 2008 14,290.69
8.82 994.27
3,239.91 2,391.05
848.86 2,283.15
12.57 80.00
414.00 227.70
186.30
Sumber Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
BPS BPS
BPS Ditjenbun
Ditjenbun Ditjenbun
BPS BPS
BPS TAHUN
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
HCPO PCPO
HMGD QMGD
HRET PRET
QBAN INTR
ER UPAH
HPUK TCPO
Rpkg USDton
Rpkg 000 ton
Rpkg USDton 000 ton
RpUSD RPBulan
Rpkg
1983 282.20
322.3522675 648.00
342.00 912.63
0.90 138.52
6.00 994.00
24,680.00 90.00
- 1984
425.21 416.4360862
925.00 605.00
877.11 0.94
132.41 16.00
1,074.00 31,974.00
100.00 37.00
1985 420.34
365.1148894 834.00
490.00 741.70
0.72 162.96
18.00 1,125.00
38,688.00 115.00
5.00 1986
426.39 199.190312
746.50 588.00
970.50 0.74
189.44 15.39
1,641.00 29,632.00
125.00 -
1987 447.00
260.5884765 863.00
664.00 1,479.00
0.88 199.63
16.78 1,650.00
32,050.00 135.00
- 1988
501.98 391.4765086
1,035.00 728.00
1,771.00 1.10
209.81 17.72
1,729.00 34,711.00
170.00 -
1989 551.75
312.9000159 1,082.00
847.00 1,514.00
0.87 213.89
18.63 1,795.00
38,080.00 195.00
- 1990
531.31 200.3850017
800.00 1,055.00
1,412.00 0.79
220.00 17.53
1,901.00 43,169.00
235.00 -
1991 654.60
287.303383 900.00
993.00 1,458.00
0.79 224.07
23.32 1,992.00
66,937.50 250.00
- 1992
728.20 346.0193036
830.00 1,654.00
1,560.00 0.82
236.30 19.60
2,062.00 75,275.00
275.00 -
1993 694.30
357.0004387 905.00
1,431.00 1,640.00
0.80 238.33
14.55 2,110.00
83,925.00 285.00
- 1994
988.00 440.0500735
962.00 1,517.00
2,368.75 1.02
236.30 12.53
2,200.00 94,900.00
370.00 10.30
1995 1,275.20
590.8298973 1,347.00
2,090.00 3,439.00
1.48 270.93
16.72 2,308.00
118,750.00 427.00
23.20 1996
1,147.90 493.6819547
1,451.00 2,166.00
3,097.00 1.34
289.26 17.26
2,383.00 118,750.00
489.00 15.80
1997 1,424.20
487.2979378 1,527.00
1,585.00 2,690.00
1.06 287.22
20.21 4,650.00
119,430.00 640.00
15.20 1998
3,942.50 503.8113188
5,449.00 2,716.00
6,256.00 0.67
197.59 39.07
8,025.00 155,252.00
1,000.00 40.00
1999 2,979.30
337.7527708 4,144.00
1,656.00 4,579.00
0.57 236.30
25.74 7,100.00
190,513.00 1,200.00
30.00 2000
2,412.10 264.5427877
3,419.00 2,185.00
5,185.00 0.64
298.95 12.50
9,595.00 230,308.00
1,280.00 10.00
2001 2,048.90
220.4482852 3,540.00
2,676.00 4,269.00
0.54 333.63
15.48 10,400.00
267,593.00 1,500.00
3.00 2002
2,840.30 330.3600355
4,401.00 2,384.00
5,001.00 0.69
378.54 15.50
8,940.00 294,679.00
1,500.00 3.00
2003 4,267.93
384.351519 4,840.00
2,681.00 5,867.00
0.90 428.34
10.59 9,465.00
329,446.00 1,700.00
3.00 2004
4,584.30 397.3581468
5,179.00 2,033.00
8,538.00 1.16
494.56 6.44
9,290.00 355,651.00
1,800.00 3.00
2005 4,825.60
362.0501452 5,066.00
947.00 9,651.00
1.28 575.60
8.08 9,830.00
369,396.00 2,000.00
3.00 2006
4,701.11 336.405519
5,316.00 800.00
13,528.75 1.89
657.49 8.96
9,020.00 373,998.00
2,200.00 3.00
2007 7,361.02
662.5989923 5,400.00
2,665.00 13,600.00
2.02 796.48
7.19 9,419.00
438,439.00 2,400.00
5.38 2008
7,783.39 865.9885281
6,000.00 1,554.26
13,700.00 2.64
843.33 10.75
9,756.75 473,649.00
2,600.00 6.00
Sumber BI
BI Depdag
Ditjenbun BI
BI Ditjenbun
IFS World Bank
BPS APPI
Permenkeu TAHUN
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
PDKIND PDKBLD
PDKCHN PDKINA
PDKUS PDKJPN
PDKW CPOMIND
CPOMBLD CPOMCHN
TEK Juta Jiwa
Juta Jiwa Juta Jiwa
Juta Jiwa Juta Jiwa
Juta Jiwa Juta Jiwa
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton
1983 734.07
14.37 1,023.31
156.07 233.79
119.26 4,657.28
557 174
18 1.00
1984 749.68
14.42 1,036.83
159.22 235.83
120.02 4,736.88
730 185
70 2.00
1985 765.15
14.49 1,051.04
162.35 237.92
120.75 4,818.00
794 225
90 3.00
1986 781.89
14.57 1,066.79
165.43 240.13
121.49 4,902.50
963.2 240.4
193.9 4.00
1987 798.68
14.67 1,084.04
168.48 242.29
122.09 4,988.86
1173.8 212
254.6 5.00
1988 815.59
14.76 1,101.63
171.49 244.50
122.61 5,075.97
945.6 201.3
398.6 6.00
1989 832.54
14.85 1,118.65
174.46 246.82
123.12 5,162.98
457 250
734.1 7.00
1990 849.52
14.95 1,135.19
177.39 249.62
123.54 5,258.65
669 252.8
1114.5 8.00
1991 866.53
15.07 1,150.78
180.27 252.98
123.92 5,342.80
212.7 353.4
1205.2 9.00
1992 882.82
15.18 1,164.97
183.12 256.51
124.23 5,423.56
207.3 354
871 10.00
1993 899.33
15.28 1,178.44
185.93 259.92
124.54 5,505.15
150.5 411
1120 11.00
1994 915.70
15.38 1,191.84
188.72 263.13
124.96 5,585.72
407.7 434.1
1880 12.00
1995 932.18
15.46 1,204.86
191.50 266.28
125.44 5,667.74
860.2 429
1595 13.00
1996 948.76
15.52 1,217.55
194.26 269.39
125.76 5,747.71
1253.9 504.1
1370 14.00
1997 965.43
15.61 1,230.08
197.01 272.66
126.09 5,827.66
1468.7 606.1
1860 15.00
1998 982.18
15.70 1,241.94
199.76 275.85
126.41 5,906.60
1672.3 693.2
1373.2 16.00
1999 999.02
15.81 1,252.74
202.51 279.04
126.65 5,984.95
3242.1 748.4
1346.7 17.00
2000 1,015.92
15.93 1,262.65
205.28 282.17
126.87 6,062.73
3763.3 775.5
1763.6 18.00
2001 1,032.47
16.05 1,271.85
208.06 285.08
127.15 6,139.71
3491.9 985
2120.2 19.00
2002 1,048.64
16.15 1,280.40
210.86 287.80
127.45 6,215.94
3460.8 1061.4
2660.2 20.00
2003 1,064.40
16.23 1,288.40
213.66 290.33
127.72 6,292.23
3979 1197.57
3353 21.00
2004 1,079.72
16.28 1,296.08
216.44 293.05
127.76 6,368.29
3453 1325.94
3851 22.00
2005 1,094.58
16.32 1,303.72
219.21 295.56
127.77 6,444.02
3315 1481.37
4320 23.00
2006 1,109.81
16.35 1,311.02
221.95 298.36
127.76 6,520.25
3198 1542.42
5462 24.00
2007 1,124.79
16.38 1,317.89
224.67 301.29
127.77 6,596.81
3688 1525.59
5499 25.00
2008 1,139.96
16.45 1,324.66
227.35 304.06
127.70 6,674.26
5308 1606.11
5720 26.00
Sumber World Bank
World Bank World Bank
World Bank World Bank
World Bank World Bank
Oil World Oil World
Oil World TAHUN
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
CPOCIND CPOCBLD
CPOCCHN RETMUSA
RETMCHN RETMJPG
RETCUSA RETCJPG
RETCCHN WCPOC
WCPOP WCPOS
WCPOQ 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000Ton USDton
000 ton 000 ton
1983 497.00
96.00 128.00
657 494.6
665.00 504.00
365.00 5,911.00
515.00 1,394.00
6,294.00 1984
730.00 84.00
180.00 758
515 751.00
525.00 402.00
6,651.00 723.00
1,587.00 6,951.00
1985 774.00
115.00 200.00
770 539.9
764.00 540.00
415.00 7,849.00
504.00 1,807.40
8,068.00 1986
775.00 130.00
185.00 721
534.5 745.00
535.00 420.00
8,096.00 257.00
1,615.30 7,736.30
1987 978.70
125.10 269.50
780 650
570.2 777.00
355.00 300.00
7,962.10 353.33
1,762.70 8,309.00
1988 1,047.60
123.40 390.80
850 676
656.6 777.00
355.00 300.00
8,772.60 463.00
2,122.70 8,858.00
1989 521.80
142.60 682.40
880.9 409.6
665.4 866.90
657.00 650.00
9,648.40 524.00
2,697.50 10,373.00
1990 659.80
210.30 951.80
820.1 339.5
663 807.50
677.00 600.00
10,987.00 279.88
2,571.50 10,638.70
1991 312.70
175.30 1,013.20
776.2 312.3
690.6 755.80
689.50 610.00
11,469.90 333.03
2,296.20 11,475.60
1992 235.20
240.50 1,000.00
913.4 253.5
675.7 910.20
685.40 640.00
12,359.30 290.75
2,134.60 12,125.60
1993 150.50
222.50 1,081.30
987.6 244.2
633.6 966.70
631.00 650.00
13,258.80 406.85
2,875.80 13,806.20
1994 407.70
222.50 1,384.40
975.6 313.7
644.3 1,001.70
639.80 720.00
14,530.80 524.55
2,282.10 14,136.90
1995 860.20
222.50 1,305.20
1026.1 297.2
696.2 1,003.90
692.00 780.00
14,711.60 468.95
2,900.00 14,999.80
1996 1,253.90
222.50 1,170.60
1014 489.5
724.1 1,001.70
714.50 810.00
16,401.80 531.81
3,140.00 16,234.00
1997 1,468.70
222.50 1,706.00
1044.2 361.7
730.4 1,066.80
713.00 975.00
17,715.30 545.03
3,244.80 17,844.00
1998 1,672.30
222.50 1,548.60
1176.8 411.1
678 1,157.40
707.30 870.00
17,553.00 678.13
2,687.70 16,705.70
1999 2,997.30
724.40 1,406.50
1116.3 401.8
755.4 1,116.00
734.00 852.00
19,530.50 438.39
3,746.00 20,624.00
2000 3,623.00
740.50 1,618.30
1191.6 820.4
801.5 1,195.00
752.00 1,080.00
21,684.80 310.44
4,036.00 21,861.00
2001 3,619.10
917.10 2,165.10
972.1 943.3
713.3 974.00
729.00 1,215.00
23,795.10 275.66
4,138.00 23,999.00
2002 3,548.90
1,053.20 2,649.80
1213.26 956.038
782.955 1,111.00
749.00 1,310.00
25,420.00 388.89
3,976.00 25,407.00
2003 4,150.80
1,085.60 3,283.10
1120.219 1203.132
806.085 1,079.00
784.00 1,485.00
28,233.00 447.61
4,029.00 28,257.00
2004 3,395.90
1,196.10 3,680.60
1158.114 1284.377
807.811 1,144.00
815.00 1,630.00
30,048.60 472.00
4,686.00 30,985.00
2005 3,308.70
1,413.00 4,339.80
1169.097 1406.773
854.028 1,159.00
857.00 2,266.20
33,400.00 414.00
5,238.00 33,846.00
2006 3,073.70
1,638.00 5,429.90
1011.657 1612.023
891.681 1,003.00
874.00 2,779.80
36,253.70 473.64
5,325.00 37,151.00
2007 5,065.00
1,863.00 5,222.00
1028.658 1648.109
855.794 1,018.00
888.00 2,891.60
37,976.00 773.80
5,130.00 38,163.00
2008 6,475.00
2,088.00 5,618.00
1334.274 1681.485
857.688 1,041.00
887.90 2,924.30
43,447.00 871.38
5,250.00 43,124.00
Sumber Oil World
Oil World Oil World
IRSG IRSG
IRSG IRSG
IRSG IRSG
Oil World BI
Oil World Oil World
TAHUN
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
WCPOX WCPOM
WRETC WRETP
WRETS WRETQ
WRETX WRETM
WLARET WLAWIT
GDPUS GDPJPG
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton USDton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ton 000 ton
000 ha 000 ha
USD USD
1983 3,543.00
3,391.00 4,582.00
54.00 2,785.00
4,008.00 3,370.00
2,847.00 11,176.90
2,147.00 23,039.00
25,240.86 1984
4,419.00 4,312.00
4,842.00 48.00
2,051.00 4,108.00
3,515.00 2,959.00
11,327.21 2,354.00
24,484.00 25,863.50
1985 5,346.00
5,347.00 4,978.00
40.00 1,278.00
4,205.00 3,605.00
2,993.00 12,098.67
2,617.00 25,264.00
27,012.34 1986
6,643.00 6,392.50
3,264.00 43.00
1,288.00 3,274.00
3,615.00 1,606.00
12,261.69 2,776.00
25,891.00 27,642.61
1987 6,173.20
6,243.70 4,084.00
48.00 1,585.00
4,381.00 3,940.00
3,828.00 12,681.10
3,004.00 26,518.00
28,550.88 1988
6,373.20 6,591.90
4,332.00 61.00
1,670.00 4,417.00
4,070.00 3,985.00
12,860.99 3,104.00
27,362.00 30,352.51
1989 7,507.60
7,357.70 5,190.00
65.65 1,630.00
5,150.00 4,140.00
4,189.00 13,202.88
3,185.00 28,062.00
31,827.87 1990
8,441.20 8,425.50
5,200.00 45.53
1,550.00 5,120.00
3,990.00 4,069.00
13,311.58 3,466.00
28,263.00 33,369.28
1991 8,604.20
8,533.90 5,060.00
45.61 1,650.00
5,160.00 3,890.00
3,806.00 13,495.78
3,549.00 27,833.00
34,380.52 1992
8,375.30 8,444.50
5,320.00 44.49
1,770.00 5,440.00
4,050.00 3,989.00
13,701.41 3,800.00
28,366.00 34,628.62
1993 9,445.60
9,445.20 5,440.00
44.49 1,630.00
5,300.00 3,840.00
3,938.00 13,950.21
4,238.00 28,747.00
34,628.78 1994
10,888.50 10,697.10
5,680.00 57.68
1,660.00 5,710.00
4,200.00 4,092.00
13,949.95 4,443.00
29,550.00 34,890.16
1995 10,285.20
10,424.10 6,000.00
78.81 1,780.00
6,040.00 4,250.00
4,226.00 14,423.84
4,691.00 29,942.00
35,438.51 1996
10,734.80 10,698.70
6,130.00 70.01
2,110.00 6,340.00
4,390.00 4,339.00
14,474.19 5,050.00
30,704.00 36,318.45
1997 12,374.20
12,308.60 6,580.00
52.32 2,110.00
6,420.00 4,580.00
4,440.00 14,696.74
5,353.00 31,716.00
36,792.29 1998
11,134.20 11,419.30
6,630.00 38.61
2,410.00 6,690.00
4,710.00 4,736.00
14,921.08 5,633.00
32,671.00 35,947.35
1999 14,173.00
13,970.00 6,644.00
34.68 2,550.00
6,863.00 4,856.00
4,702.00 15,045.03
6,032.00 33,748.00
35,828.38 2000
15,109.00 15,223.00
7,316.00 36.64
1,968.00 6,734.00
4,972.00 5,506.00
15,126.92 6,488.00
34,606.00 36,789.22
2001 17,680.00
17,577.00 7,222.00
33.18 2,000.00
7,254.00 5,107.00
5,201.00 15,531.76
7,164.00 34,513.00
36,776.18 2002
19,415.00 19,253.00
7,546.00 41.19
1,780.00 7,340.00
5,228.00 5,214.00
15,694.68 7,561.00
34,738.00 36,786.99
2003 21,861.00
21,890.00 7,966.00
52.82 1,834.60
7,986.00 5,681.00
5,715.60 16,112.26
7,946.00 35,304.00
37,227.24 2004
24,251.00 23,971.00
8,333.00 66.69
2,247.60 8,640.00
6,169.00 6,275.00
16,261.26 8,584.00
36,253.00 38,235.98
2005 26,495.00
26,602.00 8,745.00
75.15 2,406.60
8,904.00 6,822.70
7,159.70 17,616.15
9,186.00 37,019.00
38,971.84 2006
29,973.00 29,162.00
9,126.00 105.09
3,071.60 9,791.00
7,284.50 7,284.50
16,968.08 9,843.00
37,647.00 39,771.95
2007 29,879.00
29,497.00 10,144.00
112.00 2,728.60
9,801.00 7,108.80
5,845.80 17,270.55
10,532.00 38,072.00
40,719.02 2008
33,274.00 33,717.00
10,173.00 130.18
2,591.60 10,031.00
6,836.00 6,403.00
17,818.18 10,260.00
37,888.00 40,455.13
Sumber Oil World
Oil World IRSG
BI IRSG
IRSG IRSG
IRSG FAO
FAO World Bank
World Bank TAHUN
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
GDPCHN GDPIND
GDPBLD IHKI
IHKA IHKJ
IHKC IHKID
IHKB ERJ
ERC ERI
ERB USD
USD USD
2005=100 2005=100 2005=100 2005=100 2005=100 2005=100 YenUSD YuanUSD RupeeUSD NLGUSD
1983 227.55
252.61 15,633.12
11.11 51.00
84.39 23.00
20.21 63.51
237.51 1.98
10.10 1.30
1984 258.72
256.81 16,110.06
12.27 53.20
86.29 25.00
21.89 74.20
237.52 2.32
11.36 1.46
1985 289.68
264.79 16,398.11
12.85 55.10
88.06 28.00
23.11 67.05
238.54 2.94
12.37 1.51
1986 310.52
271.47 16,849.29
13.60 56.12
88.60 30.11
25.12 67.12
168.52 3.45
12.61 1.11
1987 341.02
276.28 17,085.27
14.86 58.22
88.71 32.29
27.33 66.65
144.64 3.72
12.96 0.92
1988 373.50
296.63 17,559.50
16.06 60.55
89.29 38.34
30.04 67.14
128.15 3.72
13.92 0.90
1989 382.89
307.88 18,225.73
17.09 63.48
91.33 45.37
31.89 67.87
137.96 3.77
16.23 0.96
1990 391.65
318.41 18,857.35
18.42 66.90
94.13 46.75
34.75 69.53
144.79 4.78
17.50 0.83
1991 421.89
315.48 19,166.07
20.15 69.74
97.20 48.41
39.57 71.71
134.71 5.32
22.74 0.85
1992 475.93
326.63 19,354.32
21.67 71.85
98.87 51.48
44.23 73.99
126.65 5.51
25.92 0.80
1993 536.36
335.92 19,468.06
23.77 73.97
100.12 58.99
47.05 75.91
111.20 5.76
30.49 0.84
1994 599.80
351.87 19,911.55
25.80 75.90
100.82 73.28
51.85 78.03
102.21 8.62
31.37 0.83
1995 658.00
371.81 20,427.31
28.23 78.03
100.69 85.67
57.15 79.53
94.06 8.35
32.43 0.73
1996 716.25
392.92 21,045.53
30.48 80.32
100.82 92.80
62.28 81.14
108.78 8.31
35.43 0.77
1997 774.89
401.79 21,819.39
32.38 82.19
102.61 95.40
66.74 82.90
120.99 8.29
36.31 0.89
1998 827.35
419.40 22,544.03
51.28 83.47
103.29 94.60
75.58 84.55
130.91 8.28
41.26 0.90
1999 882.56
442.79 23,440.33
61.79 85.30
102.95 93.27
79.10 86.40
113.91 8.28
43.06 0.94
2000 949.18
452.97 24,179.86
64.09 88.18
102.22 93.50
82.28 88.41
107.77 8.28
44.94 1.09
2001 1,020.52
468.96 24,460.18
71.46 90.67
101.44 94.18
85.31 92.10
121.53 8.28
47.19 1.12
2002 1,105.96
479.12 24,323.02
79.95 92.11
100.53 93.46
89.05 95.13
125.39 8.28
48.61 1.06
2003 1,209.00
511.54 24,289.78
85.22 94.20
100.28 94.54
92.44 97.14
115.93 8.28
46.58 0.89
2004 1,323.23
546.03 24,746.90
90.54 96.72
100.27 98.21
95.93 98.33
108.19 8.28
45.32 0.81
2005 1,452.28
588.99 25,194.36
100.00 100.00
100.00 100.00
100.00 100.00
110.22 8.19
44.10 0.80
2006 1,611.71
637.08 26,003.13
113.11 103.23
100.24 101.46
105.80 101.14
116.30 7.97
45.31 0.80
2007 1,811.75
685.55 26,844.57
120.26 106.17
100.30 106.28
112.54 102.77
117.75 7.61
41.35 0.73
2008 1,964.71
717.51 27,306.60
132.40 110.25
101.68 112.52
121.94 105.33
103.36 6.95
43.51 0.68
Sumber World Bank World Bank
World Bank IFS
IFS IFS
IFS IFS
IFS IFS
IFS IFS
IFS TAHUN
Lampiran 2. Program Komputer Pendugaan Model dengan Menggunakan SASETS Versi 9.0 Prosedur Syslin dengan Metoda 2SLS
OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER; data
DATAOK; SET ANALISIS;
CREATE DATA QCPO1 = LATMWIT1 YWIT1;
QCPO2 = LATMWIT2 YWIT2; QCPO3 = LATMWIT3 YWIT3;
QCPO = QCPO1 + QCPO2 + QCPO3; QRET1 = LATMRET1 YRET1;
QRET2 = LATMRET2 YRET2; QRET3 = LATMRET3 YRET3;
QRET = QRET1 + QRET2 + QRET3 ; DDCPO = DCPOMG + DCPOL;
DDRET = DRETIB + DRETL; LSTCPO= LAGSTCPO;
LSTRET= LAGSTRET; MCPO = DDCPO - QCPO + XCPO + STCPO - LSTCPO;
MRET = DDRET - QRET + XRET + STRET - LSTRET; WCPOQ = QCPO + RWCPOQ;
WCPOC = DDCPO + CPOCInd + CPOCBld + CPOCChn + RWCPOC; WCPOX = XCPO + RWCPOX;
WCPOM = MCPO + CPOMInd + CPOMBld + CPOMChn + RWCPOM; WRETQ = QRET + RWRETQ;
WRETC = DDRET + RETCUSA + RETCJPG + RETCChn + RWRETC; WRETX = XRET + RWRETX;
WRETM = MRET + RETMUSA + RETMJPG + RETMChn + RWRETM; RWCPOA= WLATMWIT-LATMWIT;
RWRETA= WLATMRET-LATMRET; Me rill kan data
HCPOR= HCPO IHKI100; L3HCPOR= L3HCPO IHKI100;
L4HCPOR= L4HCPO IHKI100; INTRR= INTR IHKI100;
L3INTRR= L3INTR IHKI100; L4INTRR=L4INTR IHKI100;
UPAHR= UPAH IHKI100; HRETR= HRET IHKI100;
L3HRETR=L3HRET IHKI100; L4HRETR= L4HRET IHKI100;
HPUKR=HPUK IHKI100; HMGDR= HMGD IHKI100;
LHMGDR= LAGHMGDR; PCPOR= PCPO IHKA100;
WCPOPR= WCPOP IHKA100; PRETR= PRET IHKA100;
ERR= ERIHKAIHKI; ERJR= ERJIHKAIHKJ;
ERCR= ERCIHKAIHKC; ERIR= ERIIHKAIHKID;
ERBR= ERBIHKAIHKB; ERA= ERIHKA100;
WRETPR= WRETP IHKA100; GDPUSR= GDPUSIHKA100;
GDPJPGR= GDPJPGIHKJ100; GDPCHNR= GDPCHNIHKC100;
GDPINDR= GDPINDIHKID100; GDPBLDR= GDPBLDIHKB100;
MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG LLATMWIT1= LAG LATMWIT1;
LLATMWIT2= LAG LATMWIT2; LLATMWIT3= LAG LATMWIT3;
LLATMWIT= LAG LATMWIT; LYWIT1= LAGYWIT1;
LYWIT2= LAG YWIT2; LYWIT3= LAG YWIT3;
LYWIT= LAG YWIT; LHCPOR= LAG HCPOR;
LHPUKR= LAG HPUKR; LUPAHR= LAG UPAHR;
LINTRR= LAG INTRR; dUPAHR= UPAHR-LUPAHR;
dHCPOR= HCPOR-LHCPOR; dHPUKR= HPUKR-LHPUKR;
dLATMWIT1= LATMWIT1-LLATMWIT1; LXCPO= LAG XCPO;
LDCPOMG= LAG DCPOMG; LPCPOR= LAG PCPOR;
LMCPO= LAG MCPO; LMRET= LAG MRET;
LCPOMInd= LAG CPOMInd; LCPOMBld= LAG CPOMBld;
LCPOMChn= LAG CPOMChn; LCPOCInd= LAG CPOCInd;
LCPOCBld= LAG CPOCBld; LCPOCChn= LAG CPOCChn;
LWCPOPR= LAG WCPOPR; LWCPOS= LAG WCPOS;
LRWCPOQ= LAG RWCPOQ; LRWCPOC= LAG RWCPOC;
LRWCPOX= LAG RWCPOX; LRWCPOM= LAG RWCPOM;
dWCPOPR= WCPOPR-LWCPOPR; LLATMRET1= LAG LATMRET1;
LLATMRET2= LAG LATMRET2; LLATMRET3= LAG LATMRET3;
LLATMRET= LAG LATMRET; LYRET1= LAGYRET1;
LYRET2= LAG YRET2; LYRET3= LAG YRET3;
LYRET= LAG YRET; LHRETR= LAG HRETR;
dHRETR= HRETR-LHRETR; dLATMRET1= LATMRET1-LLATMRET1;
LXRET= LAG XRET; LDRETIB= LAG DRETIB;
LPRETR= LAG PRETR; LMRET= LAG MRET;
LRETMUSA= LAG RETMUSA; LRETMJPG= LAG RETMJPG;
LRETMChn= LAG RETMChn; LRETCUSA= LAG RETCUSA;
LRETCJPG= LAG RETCJPG; LRETCChn= LAG RETCChn;
LWRETPR= LAG WRETPR; LWRETS= LAG WRETS;
LRWRETQ= LAG RWRETQ; LRWRETC= LAG RWRETC;
LRWRETX= LAG RWRETX; LRWRETM= LAG RWRETM;
dWRETPR= WRETPR-LWRETPR; WRETNX= WRETMWRETX;
L3PCPOR= LAG3PCPOR; L3PRETR= LAG3PRETR;
RHCPOR= HCPOR-LHCPORLHCPOR; RHRETR= HRETR-LHRETRLHRETR;
L3UPAHR= LAG3UPAHR; L3HPUKR= LAG3HPUKR;
LTCPO= LAGTCPO; DHMGDR=HMGDR-LHMGDR;
LQMGD=LAGQMGD; DWRETS= WRETS-LWRETS;
LWRETM= LAGWRETM; LWRETX= LAGWRETX;
LWRETQ=LAGWRETQ; DWRETPR= WRETPR-LWRETPR;
NWRETMX=WRETMWRETX; NWCPOMX=WCPOMWCPOX;
DWRETMX=WRETM-WRETX; RL4HRETCPO= L4HRETRL4HCPOR;
RL3HCPORET= L3HCPORL3HRETR; RL4HRETINTR= L4HRETRL4INTRR;
RHCPOPUK= HCPORHPUKR; RHCPOMG= HCPORHMGDR;
MEMBUAT DESKRIPSI VARIABEL LABEL LATMWIT1
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN K SAWIT PR LATMWIT2
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN K SAWIT PBN LATMWIT3
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN K SAWIT PBS LATMWIT
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN K SWT INDONESIA LLATMWIT1
= LAG LATMWIT1 LLATMWIT2
= LAG LATMWIT2 LLATMWIT3
= LAG LATMWIT3 LATMRET1
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN KARET PR LATMRET2
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN KARET PBN LATMRET3
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN KARET PBS LATMRET
= LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN KARET INDONESIA LLATMRET1
= LAG LATMRET1 LLATMRET2
= LAG LATMRET2 LLATMRET3
= LAG LATMRET3 YWIT1
= PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT PR YWIT2
= PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT PBN YWIT3
= PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT PBS YWIT
= PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA LYWIT1
= LAG YTWIT1 LYWIT2
= LAG YTWIT2 LYWIT3
= LAG YTWIT3 YRET1
= PRODUKTIVITAS KARET PR YRET2
= PRODUKTIVITAS KARET PBN
YRET3 = PRODUKTIVITAS KARET PBS
YRET = PRODUKTIVITAS KARET INDONESIA
LYRET1 = LAG YTRET1
LYRET2 = LAG YTRET2
LYRET3 = LAG YTRET3
XCPO = EKSPOR CPO INDONESIA
XRET = EKSPOR KARET INDONESIA
DDCPO = PERMINTAAN CPO DOMESTIK
DCPOL = PERMINTAAN CPO INDUSTRI LAINNYA
DCPOMG = PERMINTAAN CPO INDUSTRI MG
DDRET = PERMINTAAN KARET DOMESTIK
DRETL = PERMINTAAN KARET INDUSTRI LAINNYA
DRETIB = PERMINTAAN KARET INDUSTRI BAN
LDCPOMG = LAG DCPOMG
LDRETIB = LAG DRETIB
QMGD = PRODUKSI MINYAK GORENG SAWIT INDONESIA
HMGDR = HARGA RILL MINYAK GORENG SAWIT DOMESTIK
QBAN = PRODUKSI INDUSTRI BAN INDONESIA
LXCPO = LAG XCPO
LXRET = LAG XRET
MCPO = IMPOR CPO INDONESIA
MRET = IMPOR KARET INDONESIAt
HCPOR = HARGA RILL CPO DOMESTIK
HRETR = HARGA RILL KARET DOMESTIK
PCPOR = HARGA EKSPOR RILL CPO
PRETR = HARGA EKSPOR RILL CPO
CPOMIND = IMPOR CPO INDIA
CPOMBLD = IMPOR CPO BELANDA
CPOMCHN = IMPOR CPO CHINA
CPOCIND = KONSUMSI CPO INDIA
CPOCBLD = KONSUMSI CPO BELANDA
CPOCCHN = KONSUMSI CPO CHINA
LCPOMIND = LAG CPOMIND
LCPOMBLD = LAG CPOMBLD
LCPOMCHN = LAG CPOMCHN
LCPOCIND = LAG CPOCIND
LCPOCBLD = LAG CPOCBLD
LCPOCCHN = LAG CPOCCHN
RETMUSA = IMPOR KARET USA
RETMJPG = IMPOR KARET JEPANG
RETMChn = IMPOR KARET CHINA
RETCUSA = KONSUMSI KARET USA
RETCJPG = KONSUMSI KARET JEPANG
RETCChn = KONSUMSI KARET CHINA
LRETMUSA = LAG RETMUSA
LRETMJPG = LAG RETMJPG
LRETMChn = LAG RETMChn
LRETCUSA = LAG RETCUSA
LRETCJPG = LAG RETCJPG
LRETCChn = LAG RETCChn
WCPOPR = HARGA RILL CPO DI PASAR DUNIA
WCPOS = STOCK CPO DUNIA
WCPOQ = PRODUKSI CPO DUNIA
WCPOC = KONSUMSI CPO DUNIA
WCPOX = EKSPOR CPO DUNIA
WCPOM = IMPOR CPO DUNIA
LWCPOPR = LAG WCPOPR
LWCPOS = LAG WCPOS
WRETPR = HARGA RILL KARET DI PASAR DUNIA
WRETS = STOCK KARET DUNIA
WRETQ = PRODUKSI KARET DUNIA
WRETC = KONSUMSI KARET DUNIA
WRETX = EKSPOR KARET DUNIA
WRETM = IMPOR KARET DUNIA
LWRETPR = LAG WRETPR
LWRETS = LAG WRETS
RWCPOQ = PRODUKSI CPO SISA DUNIA
RWCPOC = KONSUMSI CPO SISA DUNIA
RWCPOX = EKSPOR CPO SISA DUNIA
RWCPOM = IMPOR CPO SISA DUNIA
LRWCPOQ = LAG RWCPOQ
LRWCPOC = LAG RWCPOC
LRWCPOX = LAG RWCPOX
LRWCPOM = LAG RWCPOM
LWRETQ = PRODUKSI KARET SISA DUNIA
RWRETC = KONSUMSI KARET SISA DUNIA
RWRETX = EKSPOR KARET SISA DUNIA
RWRETM = IMPOR KARET SISA DUNIA
LRWRETQ = LAG RWRETQ
LRWRETC = LAG RWRETC
LRWRETX = LAG RWRETX
LRWRETM = LAG RWRETM
QCPO1 = PRODUKSI CPO INDONESIA PR
QCPO2 = PRODUKSI CPO INDONESIA PBN
QCPO3 = PRODUKSI CPO INDONESIA PBS
QCPO = PRODUKSI CPO INDONESIA
QRET1 = PRODUKSI KARET INDONESIA PR
QRET2 = PRODUKSI KARET INDONESIA PBN
QRET3 = PRODUKSI KARET INDONESIA PBS
QRET = PRODUKSI KARET INDONESIA
RWCPOA = LUAS AREAL KS SISA DUNIA
RWRETA = LUAS AREAL KARET SISA DUNIA
STCPO = STOCK CPO INDONESIA
STRET = STOCK KARET INDONESIA
LSTCPO = LAG STCPO
LSTRET = LAG STRET
RWPDK2 = PENDUDUK SISA DUNIA KARET
L3HCPOR = LAG HARGA RILL CPO DOMESTIK
L3HRETR = LAG HARGA RILL KARET DOMESTIK
L3INTRR = LAG TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA RILL BANK
ERR = NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP USS
TEK = TEKNOLOGI
UPAHR = TINGKAT UPAH RILL SEKTOR PERTANIAN
HPUKR = HARGA PUPUK RILL
LHPUKR = LAG HPUKR
LUPAHR = LAG UPAHR
DHRETR = PERUBAHAN HARGA RILL KARET DOMESTIK
DHCPOR = PERUBAHAN HARGA RILL CPO DOMESTIK
RUN; PROC
SYSLIN 2SLS DATA= DATAOK OUTEST= HASIL; ENDOGENOUS
LATMWIT1 LATMWIT2 LATMWIT3 LATMRET1 LATMRET2 LATMRET3 YWIT1 YWIT2 YWIT3 YRET1 YRET2 YRET3 QCPO1 QCPO2 QCPO3 QCPO
QRET1 QRET2 QRET3 QRET XCPO XRET DCPOMG DRETIB HCPOR HRETR PCPOR
PRETR DDCPO DDRET WCPOPR WRETPR CPOMIND CPOMBLD CPOMCHN CPOCIND CPOCBLD CPOCCHN RETCUSA RETMUSA RETCJPG RETMJPG RETCCHN RETMCHN
WCPOS WRETS WCPOQ WRETQ WCPOC WRETC WCPOX WRETX WCPOM WRETM RWCPOQ RWCPOC RWCPOX RWCPOM RWRETQ RWRETC RWRETX RWRETM ;
INSTRUMENTS
L3HCPOR L3HRETR L3INTRR HPUKR UPAHR ERR TEK L4HRETR L4HCPOR HMGDR LTCPO ERIR ERJR GDPINDR GDPBLDR GDPUSR GDPJPGR WCPOA
RWRETA RWPDK RWPDK2 LLATMRET1 LYRET1 LYRET2 LYRET3 LXCPO LXRET LDCPOMG LDRETIB LHCPOR LHRETR LPCPOR LPRETR LCPOMIND LCPOMBLD
LCPOMCHN LCPOCBLD LCPOCIND LCPOCCHN LRETMUSA LRETMJPG LRETMCHN LRETCUSA LRETCJPG LRETCCHN LWCPOPR LWRETPR LWCPOS LWRETS LRWCPOQ
LRWCPOC LRWCPOX LRWCPOM LRWRETQ LRWRETC LRWRETX LRWRETM ; PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL
LUAS_AREASAWITPR: MODEL LATMWIT1= L3HCPOR L3HRETR L3INTRR HPUKR LUPAHR TEK DW;
LUAS_AREASAWITPBN: MODEL LATMWIT2= L3HCPOR L3HRETR L3INTRR HPUKR LUPAHR TEK DW;
LUAS_AREASAWITPBS: MODEL LATMWIT3= L3HCPOR L3HRETR L3INTRR HPUKR LUPAHR TEK DW;
LUAS_AREAKARETPR: MODEL LATMRET1= RL4HRETCPO L4INTRR HPUKR DUPAHR TEK LLATMRET1 DW;
LUAS_AREAKARETPBN: MODEL LATMRET2= L4HRETR L4HCPOR L4INTRR HPUKR LUPAHR TEK DW;
LUAS_AREAKARETPBN: MODEL LATMRET3= RL4HRETINTR L3HCPOR DHPUKR DUPAHR TEK DW;
PRODUKTIVITAS_SAWITPR: MODEL YWIT1 = LHCPOR LATMWIT1 DHPUKR TEKNOINT DW;
PRODUKTIVITAS_SAWITPBN: MODEL YWIT2= HPUKR UPAHR LYWIT2 DW; PRODUKTIVITAS_SAWITPBS: MODEL YWIT3= HCPOR LATMWIT3 HPUKR UPAHR
INTRR DW; PRODUKTIVITAS_KARETPR: MODEL YRET1= HRETR LATMRET1 HPUKR LUPAHR
TEK LYRET1DW; PRODUKTIVITAS_KARETPBN: MODEL YRET2= HRETR LATMRET2 LHPUKR LUPAHR
TEK LYRET2 DW; PRODUKTIVITAS_KARETPBS: MODEL YRET3= HRETR LATMRET3 HPUKR UPAHR
TEK LYRET3 DW; EKSPOR_CPOIND: MODEL XCPO= QCPO DDCPO LPCPOR ERR LXCPO DW;
EKSPOR_KARETIND:MODEL XRET= QRET DDRET PRETR ERR LXRETDW; PERMINTAAN_CPODOMESTIK: MODEL DCPOMG= RHCPOMG INTRR LDCPOMG DW;
PERMINTAAN_KARETDOMESTIK: MODEL DRETIB= HRETR INTRR LDRETIBDW; HARGA_CPODOMESTIK: MODEL HCPOR= PCPOR ERR DDCPO LHCPOR DW
HARGA_KARETDOMESTIK: MODEL HRETR= PRETR ERR LHRETR DW; HARGA_CPOEKSPOR: MODEL PCPOR= WCPOPR LTCPO LPCPOR DW;
HARGA_KARETEKSPOR: MODEL PRETR= WRETPR LPRETR DW; IMPOR_CPOINDIA: MODEL CPOMInd= DWCPOPR ERIR TEK LCPOMInd DW;
IMPOR_CPOBELANDA: MODEL CPOMBld= WCPOPR LCPOMBld DW; IMPOR_CPOCHINA: MODEL CPOMChn= WCPOPR LCPOMChn DW;
KONSUMSI_CPOINDIA: MODEL CPOCInd= CPOMInd PDKIND GDPINDR LCPOCInd DW;
KONSUMSI_CPOBELANDA: MODEL CPOCBld= CPOMBld GDPBLDR LCPOCBld DW; KONSUMSI_CPOCHINA: MODEL CPOCChn= CPOMCHN GDPCHNR LCPOCChn DW;
IMPOR_KARETUSA: MODEL RETMUSA= DWRETPR TEK LRETMUSA DW; IMPOR_KARETJPG: MODEL RETMJPG= LWRETPR ERJR LRETMJPG DW;
IMPOR_KARETCHINA: MODEL RETMChn= LWRETPR LRETMChn DW; KONSUMSI_KARETUSA: MODEL RETCUSA= RETMUSA gdpusr LRETCUSA DW;
KONSUMSI_KARETJEPANG: MODEL RETCJPG= RETMJPG LRETCJPG DW; KONSUMSI_KARETCHINA: MODEL RETCChn= RETMChn GDPCHNR PDKCHN
LRETCChn DW; HARGA_CPODUNIA: MODEL WCPOPR= NWCPOMX LWCPOPR NOINTDW;
STOCK_CPODUNIA: MODEL WCPOS= WCPOQ WCPOC LWCPOS DW; HARGA_KARETDUNIA: MODEL WRETPR= NWRETMX LWRETPRNOINTDW;
STOCK_KARETDUNIA: MODEL WRETS= WRETQ WRETC LWRETS DW; PRODUKSI_CPOSISADUNIA: MODEL RWCPOQ= WCPOPR RWCPOA LRWCPOQ DW;
KONSUMSI_CPOSISADUNIA: MODEL RWCPOC= WCPOPR RWCPOM RWPDK LRWCPOC DW;
EKSPOR_CPOSISADUNIA: MODEL RWCPOX= RWCPOQ LRWCPOX DW; IMPOR_CPOSISADUNIA: MODEL RWCPOM= WCPOPR LRWCPOMDW;
PRODUKSI_KARETSISADUNIA: MODEL RWRETQ= WRETPR RWRETA LRWRETQ DW;
KONSUMSI_KARETSISADUNIA: MODEL RWRETC= DWRETPR RWPDK2 LRWRETC DW;
EKSPOR_KARETSISADUNIA: MODEL RWRETX= DWRETPR RWRETQ LRWRETX DW; IMPOR_KARETSISADUNIA: MODEL RWRETM= WRETPR LRWRETM DW;
PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS IDENTITY QCPO1= QCPO1 + 0;
IDENTITY QCPO2= QCPO2 + 0; IDENTITY QCPO3= QCPO3 + 0;
IDENTITY QCPO = QCPO1 + QCPO2 + QCPO3; IDENTITY QRET1= QRET1 + 0;
IDENTITY QRET2= QRET2 + 0; IDENTITY QRET3= QRET3 + 0;
IDENTITY QRET = QRET1 + QRET2 + QRET3 ; IDENTITY DDCPO= DCPOMG + DCPOL;
IDENTITY DDRET= DRETIB + DRETL; IDENTITY WCPOQ= QCPO + RWCPOQ;
IDENTITY WCPOC= DDCPO + CPOCInd + CPOCBld + CPOCChn + RWCPOC; IDENTITY WCPOX= XCPO + RWCPOX;
IDENTITY WCPOM= MCPO + CPOMInd + CPOMBld + CPOMChn + RWCPOM; IDENTITY WRETQ= QRET +RWRETQ;
IDENTITY WRETC= DDRET + RETCUSA + RETCJPG + RETCChn + RWRETC; IDENTITY WRETX= XRET + RWRETX;
IDENTITY WRETM= MRET + RETMUSA + RETMJPG + RETMChn + RWRETM; RUN;
Lampiran 3. Hasil Pendugaan Model dengan Menggunakan SASETS Versi 9.0 Prosedur Syslin dengan Metoda 2SLS
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LUAS_ARE
Dependent Variable LATMWIT1 Label LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN K SAWIT PR
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 11196505 1866084 94.84 .0001
Error 18 354153.2 19675.18 Corrected Total 24 11550658
Root MSE 140.26823 R-Square 0.96934 Dependent Mean 705.67096 Adj R-Sq 0.95912
Coeff Var 19.87728 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 952.1166 263.2423 3.62 0.0020 Intercept L3HCPOR 1 0.132260 0.050937 2.60 0.0182 LAG HARGA RILL
CPO DOMESTIK L3HRETR 1 -0.04927 0.025877 -1.90 0.0730 LAG HARGA RILL
KARET DOMESTIK L3INTRR 1 -4.50183 1.462514 -3.08 0.0065 LAG TINGKAT SUKU
BUNGA RILL BANK HPUKR 1 -0.43623 0.113210 -3.85 0.0012 HARGA PUPUK RILL
LUPAHR 1 -0.00270 0.000646 -4.17 0.0006 LAG UPAHR TEK 1 91.26334 8.972383 10.17 .0001 TEKNOLOGI
Durbin-Watson 1.661839 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.129786
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LUAS_ARE
Dependent Variable LATMWIT2 Label LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN K SAWIT PBN
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 415811.9 69301.98 140.07 .0001
Error 18 8906.103 494.7835 Corrected Total 24 424718.0
Root MSE 22.24373 R-Square 0.97903 Dependent Mean 417.22284 Adj R-Sq 0.97204
Coeff Var 5.33138 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 278.1264 41.74495 6.66 .0001 Intercept L3HCPOR 1 0.006119 0.008078 0.76 0.4586 LAG HARGA RILL
CPO DOMESTIK L3HRETR 1 -0.00543 0.004104 -1.32 0.2025 LAG HARGA RILL
KARET DOMESTIK L3INTRR 1 -0.08262 0.231925 -0.36 0.7258 LAG TINGKAT SUKU
BUNGA RILL BANK HPUKR 1 -0.01271 0.017953 -0.71 0.4882 HARGA PUPUK RILL
LUPAHR 1 -0.00031 0.000103 -3.00 0.0077 LAG UPAHR TEK 1 19.44779 1.422840 13.67 .0001 TEKNOLOGI
Durbin-Watson 1.004171 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.349989
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LUAS_ARE
Dependent Variable LATMWIT3 Label LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN K SAWIT PBS
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 15874254 2645709 144.32 .0001
Error 18 329974.0 18331.89 Corrected Total 24 16204228
Root MSE 135.39531 R-Square 0.97964 Dependent Mean 901.77740 Adj R-Sq 0.97285
Coeff Var 15.01427 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 1013.487 254.0972 3.99 0.0009 Intercept L3HCPOR 1 0.138446 0.049167 2.82 0.0114 LAG HARGA RILL
CPO DOMESTIK L3HRETR 1 -0.05888 0.024978 -2.36 0.0299 LAG HARGA RILL
KARET DOMESTIK L3INTRR 1 -6.29312 1.411706 -4.46 0.0003 LAG TINGKAT SUKU
BUNGA RILL BANK HPUKR 1 -0.25498 0.109277 -2.33 0.0314 HARGA PUPUK RILL
LUPAHR 1 -0.00296 0.000624 -4.75 0.0002 LAG UPAHR TEK 1 101.7707 8.660682 11.75 .0001 TEKNOLOGI
Durbin-Watson 1.684321 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.110901
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LUAS_ARE
Dependent Variable LATMRET1 Label LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN KARET PR
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 2531986 421997.7 150.92 .0001
Error 18 50330.94 2796.163 Corrected Total 24 2582317
Root MSE 52.87876 R-Square 0.98051 Dependent Mean 1830.88688 Adj R-Sq 0.97401
Coeff Var 2.88815 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 1048.815 325.5090 3.22 0.0047 Intercept RL4HRETCPO 1 14.94136 24.44302 0.61 0.5487
L4INTRR 1 -0.80807 0.614160 -1.32 0.2048 HPUKR 1 -0.09098 0.043768 -2.08 0.0522 HARGA PUPUK RILL
dUPAHR 1 -0.00026 0.000312 -0.83 0.4187 TEK 1 33.04755 8.558520 3.86 0.0011 TEKNOLOGI
LLATMRET1 1 0.239932 0.214324 1.12 0.2777 LAG LATMRET1 Durbin-Watson 2.049071
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.07478
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LUAS_ARE
Dependent Variable LATMRET2 Label LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN KARET PBN
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 3741.806 623.6344 22.33 .0001
Error 18 502.6822 27.92679 Corrected Total 24 4244.488
Root MSE 5.28458 R-Square 0.88157 Dependent Mean 183.24392 Adj R-Sq 0.84209
Coeff Var 2.88390 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 174.8572 9.522985 18.36 .0001 Intercept L4HRETR 1 0.000587 0.001106 0.53 0.6023
L4HCPOR 1 -0.00408 0.002141 -1.90 0.0730 L4INTRR 1 0.331123 0.055540 5.96 .0001
HPUKR 1 -0.02833 0.004353 -6.51 .0001 HARGA PUPUK RILL LUPAHR 1 -0.00003 0.000025 -1.38 0.1846 LAG UPAHR
TEK 1 3.015313 0.351277 8.58 .0001 TEKNOLOGI Durbin-Watson 1.897728
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.00652
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LUAS_ARE
Dependent Variable LATMRET3 Label LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN KARET PBS
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 8251.816 1650.363 37.45 .0001
Error 19 837.2596 44.06629 Corrected Total 24 9089.076
Root MSE 6.63824 R-Square 0.90788 Dependent Mean 153.77552 Adj R-Sq 0.88364
Coeff Var 4.31684 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 127.8814 5.284924 24.20 .0001 Intercept RL4HRETINTR 1 0.012569 0.006561 1.92 0.0706
L3HCPOR 1 -0.00147 0.002143 -0.68 0.5022 LAG HARGA RILL CPO DOMESTIK
dHPUKR 1 -0.02329 0.006261 -3.72 0.0015 dUPAHR 1 -0.00008 0.000036 -2.28 0.0346
TEK 1 1.992202 0.263751 7.55 .0001 TEKNOLOGI Durbin-Watson 1.352485
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.274319
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKTI
Dependent Variable YWIT1 Label PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT PR
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 156.9269 39.23173 80.51 .0001
Error 21 10.23248 0.487261 Uncorrected 25 167.1594
Total Root MSE 0.69804 R-Square 0.93879
Dependent Mean 2.51364 Adj R-Sq 0.92713 Coeff Var 27.77008
NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares.
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label LHCPOR 1 0.000384 0.000142 2.70 0.0133
LATMWIT1 1 -0.00129 0.000526 -2.46 0.0227 LUAS AREAL TANAM MENGHASILKAN
K SAWIT PR dHPUKR 1 -0.00168 0.000757 -2.22 0.0376
TEK 1 0.131649 0.059077 2.23 0.0369 TEKNOLOGI Durbin-Watson 1.679661
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.150253
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKTI
Dependent Variable YWIT2 Label PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT PBN
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 4.494270 1.498090 12.63 .0001
Error 21 2.490350 0.118588 Corrected Total 24 6.984621
Root MSE 0.34437 R-Square 0.64345 Dependent Mean 3.62120 Adj R-Sq 0.59252
Coeff Var 9.50974 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 1.491859 0.737267 2.02 0.0559 Intercept HPUKR 1 -0.00035 0.000278 -1.27 0.2189 HARGA PUPUK RILL
UPAHR 1 -1.99E-7 1.168E-6 -0.17 0.8664 TINGKAT UPAH RILL SEKTOR PERTANIAN
LYWIT2 1 0.711378 0.141058 5.04 .0001 LAG YTWIT2 Durbin-Watson 2.18192
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.10317
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKTI
Dependent Variable YWIT3 Label PRODUKTIVITAS KELAPA SAWIT PBS
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 6.143514 1.228703 4.65 0.0061
Error 19 5.024793 0.264463 Corrected Total 24 11.16831
Root MSE 0.51426 R-Square 0.55008 Dependent Mean 3.71923 Adj R-Sq 0.43169
Coeff Var 13.82706 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 7.648976 1.856710 4.12 0.0006 Intercept HCPOR 1 0.000045 0.000114 0.40 0.6953 HARGA RILL CPO
DOMESTIK LATMWIT3 1 -0.00049 0.000366 -1.33 0.1992 LUAS AREAL TANAM
MENGHASILKAN K SAWIT PBS
HPUKR 1 -0.00114 0.000500 -2.27 0.0347 HARGA PUPUK RILL UPAHR 1 -5.75E-6 2.629E-6 -2.19 0.0413 TINGKAT UPAH RILL
SEKTOR PERTANIAN INTRR 1 -0.00820 0.008462 -0.97 0.3446
Durbin-Watson 2.187875 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.10206
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKTI
Dependent Variable YRET1 Label PRODUKTIVITAS KARET PR
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 0.311676 0.051946 55.74 .0001
Error 18 0.016774 0.000932 Corrected Total 24 0.328451
Root MSE 0.03053 R-Square 0.94893 Dependent Mean 0.65464 Adj R-Sq 0.93191
Coeff Var 4.66320 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 0.464405 0.172196 2.70 0.0147 Intercept HRETR 1 -5.67E-7 4.128E-6 -0.14 0.8922 HARGA RILL KARET
DOMESTIK LATMRET1 1 -0.00013 0.000117 -1.09 0.2897 LUAS AREAL TANAM
MENGHASILKAN KARET PR
HPUKR 1 -0.00011 0.000037 -2.89 0.0098 HARGA PUPUK RILL LUPAHR 1 -2.3E-7 1.502E-7 -1.53 0.1436 LAG UPAHR
TEK 1 0.014132 0.005531 2.55 0.0199 TEKNOLOGI LYRET1 1 0.666923 0.141463 4.71 0.0002 LAG YTRET1
Durbin-Watson 1.778298 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.04768
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKTI
Dependent Variable YRET2 Label PRODUKTIVITAS KARET PBN
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 0.204856 0.034143 5.62 0.0020
Error 18 0.109388 0.006077 Corrected Total 24 0.314245
Root MSE 0.07796 R-Square 0.65190 Dependent Mean 1.12963 Adj R-Sq 0.53587
Coeff Var 6.90101 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 0.978684 0.479837 2.04 0.0563 Intercept HRETR 1 2.931E-6 0.000011 0.28 0.7853 HARGA RILL KARET
DOMESTIK LATMRET2 1 -0.00122 0.001886 -0.65 0.5244 LUAS AREAL TANAM
MENGHASILKAN KARET PBN
LHPUKR 1 -0.00018 0.000092 -1.94 0.0681 LAG HPUKR LUPAHR 1 -5.54E-7 4.171E-7 -1.33 0.2010 LAG UPAHR
TEK 1 0.009179 0.004809 1.91 0.0724 TEKNOLOGI LYRET2 1 0.536320 0.218031 2.46 0.0242 LAG YTRET2
Durbin-Watson 1.781103 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.016055
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKTI
Dependent Variable YRET3 Label PRODUKTIVITAS KARET PBS
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 0.912744 0.152124 23.59 .0001
Error 18 0.116081 0.006449 Corrected Total 24 1.028825
Root MSE 0.08031 R-Square 0.88717 Dependent Mean 1.22316 Adj R-Sq 0.84956
Coeff Var 6.56537 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 3.541727 0.730647 4.85 0.0001 Intercept HRETR 1 3.59E-6 0.000011 0.33 0.7438 HARGA RILL KARET
DOMESTIK LATMRET3 1 -0.01830 0.004141 -4.42 0.0003 LUAS AREAL TANAM
MENGHASILKAN KARET PBS
HPUKR 1 -0.00045 0.000143 -3.17 0.0053 HARGA PUPUK RILL UPAHR 1 -1.39E-6 4.356E-7 -3.19 0.0050 TINGKAT UPAH RILL
SEKTOR PERTANIAN TEK 1 0.074873 0.014616 5.12 .0001 TEKNOLOGI
LYRET3 1 0.321849 0.155302 2.07 0.0529 LAG YTRET3 Durbin-Watson 1.38608
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.26855
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_C
Dependent Variable XCPO Label EKSPOR CPO INDONESIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 4.0088E8 80175949 127.54 .0001
Error 19 11943812 628621.7 Corrected Total 24 4.1282E8
Root MSE 792.85666 R-Square 0.97107 Dependent Mean 3918.71200 Adj R-Sq 0.96345
Coeff Var 20.23258 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -222.809 978.9817 -0.23 0.8224 Intercept QCPO 1 0.286601 0.186409 1.54 0.1407 PRODUKSI CPO
INDONESIA DDCPO 1 -0.26445 0.168979 -1.56 0.1341 PERMINTAAN CPO
DOMESTIK LPCPOR 1 0.095809 1.224079 0.08 0.9384
ERR 1 0.054105 0.083723 0.65 0.5259 NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP USS
LXCPO 1 0.762207 0.256467 2.97 0.0078 LAG XCPO Durbin-Watson 2.529489
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.29426
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_K
Dependent Variable XRET Label EKSPOR KARET INDONESIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 4142290 828458.0 208.54 .0001
Error 19 75478.69 3972.563 Corrected Total 24 4217769
Root MSE 63.02827 R-Square 0.98210 Dependent Mean 1460.91792 Adj R-Sq 0.97740
Coeff Var 4.31429 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -69.3809 145.7822 -0.48 0.6396 Intercept QRET 1 0.888893 0.129863 6.84 .0001 PRODUKSI KARET
INDONESIA DDRET 1 -0.67660 0.649887 -1.04 0.3109 PERMINTAAN KARET
DOMESTIK PRETR 1 0.034236 0.056060 0.61 0.5486 HARGA EKSPOR
RILL CPO ERR 1 0.013011 0.008985 1.45 0.1639 NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH
TERHADAP USS LXRET 1 0.025661 0.160374 0.16 0.8746 LAG XRET
Durbin-Watson 1.628247 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.136313
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PERMINTA
Dependent Variable DCPOMG Label PERMINTAAN CPO INDUSTRI MG
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 18535813 6178604 7.26 0.0016
Error 21 17859897 850471.3 Corrected Total 24 36395710
Root MSE 922.20999 R-Square 0.50929 Dependent Mean 2282.93019 Adj R-Sq 0.43918
Coeff Var 40.39589 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 1505.291 1527.381 0.99 0.3356 Intercept RHCPOMG 1 691.2952 1434.890 0.48 0.6349
INTRR 1 -8.75041 7.179334 -1.22 0.2364 LDCPOMG 1 0.364959 0.219744 1.66 0.1116 LAG DCPOMG
Durbin-Watson 2.116164 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09206
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PERMINTA
Dependent Variable DRETIB Label PERMINTAAN KARET INDUSTRI BAN
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 64095.71 21365.24 263.87 .0001
Error 21 1700.369 80.96996 Corrected Total 24 65796.08
Root MSE 8.99833 R-Square 0.97416 Dependent Mean 90.19468 Adj R-Sq 0.97047
Coeff Var 9.97656 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 13.16969 10.41815 1.26 0.2200 Intercept HRETR 1 -0.00113 0.001038 -1.09 0.2884 HARGA RILL KARET
DOMESTIK INTRR 1 -0.08082 0.062146 -1.30 0.2075
LDRETIB 1 1.112203 0.067750 16.42 .0001 LAG DRETIB Durbin-Watson 1.707857
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.100537
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_CP
Dependent Variable HCPOR Label HARGA RILL CPO DOMESTIK
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 24507593 6126898 12.45 .0001
Error 20 9841888 492094.4 Corrected Total 24 34349481
Root MSE 701.49442 R-Square 0.71348 Dependent Mean 4076.20884 Adj R-Sq 0.65617
Coeff Var 17.20948 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -1260.64 947.8553 -1.33 0.1985 Intercept PCPOR 1 3.607153 1.088645 3.31 0.0035 HARGA EKSPOR
RILL CPO ERR 1 0.132490 0.091595 1.45 0.1635 NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH
TERHADAP USS DDCPO 1 0.316096 0.134711 2.35 0.0294 PERMINTAAN CPO
DOMESTIK LHCPOR 1 0.381388 0.134569 2.83 0.0103
Durbin-Watson 1.53332 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.232483
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_KA
Dependent Variable HRETR Label HARGA RILL KARET DOMESTIK
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 51329991 17109997 7.98 0.0010
Error 21 45033118 2144434 Corrected Total 24 96363109
Root MSE 1464.38867 R-Square 0.53267 Dependent Mean 8729.59623 Adj R-Sq 0.46591
Coeff Var 16.77499 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -230.929 2102.625 -0.11 0.9136 Intercept PRETR 1 3.490522 0.949658 3.68 0.0014 HARGA EKSPOR
RILL CPO ERR 1 0.362422 0.150914 2.40 0.0257 NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH
TERHADAP USS LHRETR 1 0.154859 0.176396 0.88 0.3899
Durbin-Watson 1.694606 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.051179
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_CP
Dependent Variable PCPOR Label HARGA EKSPOR RILL CPO
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 408457.1 136152.4 14.58 .0001
Error 21 196055.1 9335.958 Corrected Total 24 604512.2
Root MSE 96.62276 R-Square 0.67568 Dependent Mean 497.01475 Adj R-Sq 0.62935
Coeff Var 19.44062 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 109.3809 71.31595 1.53 0.1400 Intercept WCPOPR 1 0.495118 0.112116 4.42 0.0002 HARGA RILL CPO
DIPASAR DUNIA LTCPO 1 -0.76781 1.993114 -0.39 0.7039
LPCPOR 1 0.191309 0.193136 0.99 0.3332 Durbin-Watson 1.247439
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.266022
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_KA
Dependent Variable PRETR Label HARGA EKSPOR RILL CPO
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 4493396 2246698 131.93 .0001
Error 22 374636.8 17028.95 Corrected Total 24 4868033
Root MSE 130.49500 R-Square 0.92304 Dependent Mean 1317.70732 Adj R-Sq 0.91605
Coeff Var 9.90319 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -94.5212 94.64498 -1.00 0.3288 Intercept WRETPR 1 17.84817 1.818631 9.81 .0001 HARGA RILL KARET
DIPASAR DUNIA LPRETR 1 0.073680 0.103568 0.71 0.4843
Durbin-Watson 1.664475 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.071886
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_CP
Dependent Variable CPOMIND Label IMPOR CPO INDIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 51947986 12986997 55.32 .0001
Error 20 4695340 234767.0 Corrected Total 24 56643326
Root MSE 484.52759 R-Square 0.91711 Dependent Mean 1954.60000 Adj R-Sq 0.90053
Coeff Var 24.78909 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 589.7224 616.3750 0.96 0.3501 Intercept dWCPOPR 1 -0.65418 0.486489 -1.34 0.1938
ERIR 1 -28.7171 19.94344 -1.44 0.1654 TEK 1 88.96120 34.94805 2.55 0.0193 TEKNOLOGI
LCPOMInd 1 0.727161 0.143396 5.07 .0001 LAG CPOMIND Durbin-Watson 1.183558
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.287564
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_CP
Dependent Variable CPOMBLD Label IMPOR CPO BELANDA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 5722140 2861070 957.73 .0001
Error 22 65721.63 2987.347 Corrected Total 24 5787862
Root MSE 54.65663 R-Square 0.98864 Dependent Mean 704.02800 Adj R-Sq 0.98761
Coeff Var 7.76342 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 67.81701 39.96189 1.70 0.1038 Intercept WCPOPR 1 -0.06322 0.050838 -1.24 0.2267 HARGA RILL CPO
DIPASAR DUNIA LCPOMBld 1 1.042980 0.024948 41.81 .0001 LAG CPOMBLD
Durbin-Watson 2.02976 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.0185
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_CP
Dependent Variable CPOMCHN Label IMPOR CPO CHINA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 69133198 34566599 271.12 .0001
Error 22 2804880 127494.6 Corrected Total 24 71938078
Root MSE 357.06381 R-Square 0.96101 Dependent Mean 2009.03200 Adj R-Sq 0.95747
Coeff Var 17.77293 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 380.4841 238.8585 1.59 0.1254 Intercept WCPOPR 1 -0.40889 0.325604 -1.26 0.2224 HARGA RILL CPO
DIPASAR DUNIA LCPOMChn 1 1.053616 0.046596 22.61 .0001 LAG CPOMCHN
Durbin-Watson 2.096163 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.06027
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable CPOCIND Label KONSUMSI CPO INDIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 70267253 17566813 184.52 .0001
Error 20 1904007 95200.33 Corrected Total 24 72171260
Root MSE 308.54550 R-Square 0.97362 Dependent Mean 2044.22000 Adj R-Sq 0.96834
Coeff Var 15.09356 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -7119.28 2528.343 -2.82 0.0107 Intercept CPOMIND 1 1.028006 0.144352 7.12 .0001 IMPOR CPO INDIA
PDKIND 1 6.077667 2.232386 2.72 0.0131 PDKIND GDPINDR 1 2.250766 0.845856 2.66 0.0150
LCPOCInd 1 -0.14343 0.158741 -0.90 0.3770 LAG CPOCIND Durbin-Watson 1.301855
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.250734
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable CPOCBLD Label KONSUMSI CPO BELANDA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 8970946 2990315 308.64 .0001
Error 21 203465.2 9688.821 Corrected Total 24 9174411
Root MSE 98.43181 R-Square 0.97782 Dependent Mean 616.00400 Adj R-Sq 0.97465
Coeff Var 15.97909 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -448.286 464.5546 -0.96 0.3455 Intercept CPOMBLD 1 0.322396 0.144786 2.23 0.0370 IMPOR CPO BELANDA
GDPBLDR 1 0.014986 0.018184 0.82 0.4191 LCPOCBld 1 0.839838 0.130269 6.45 .0001 LAG CPOCBLD
Durbin-Watson 2.333272 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.18804
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable CPOCCHN Label KONSUMSI CPO CHINA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 68625093 22875031 1437.50 .0001
Error 21 334174.6 15913.08 Corrected Total 24 68959268
Root MSE 126.14704 R-Square 0.99515 Dependent Mean 1939.27600 Adj R-Sq 0.99446
Coeff Var 6.50485 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -398.794 152.3785 -2.62 0.0161 Intercept CPOMCHN 1 0.811040 0.080574 10.07 .0001 IMPOR CPO CHINA
GDPCHNR 1 0.484747 0.184296 2.63 0.0156 LCPOCChn 1 0.108682 0.095534 1.14 0.2681 LAG CPOCCHN
Durbin-Watson 1.73149 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.132216
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KA
Dependent Variable RETMUSA Label IMPOR KARET USA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 506134.9 168711.6 20.99 .0001
Error 21 168823.9 8039.232 Corrected Total 24 674958.7
Root MSE 89.66176 R-Square 0.74988 Dependent Mean 992.36716 Adj R-Sq 0.71414
Coeff Var 9.03514 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 640.0626 158.2570 4.04 0.0006 Intercept dWRETPR 1 -0.47709 1.314503 -0.36 0.7203
TEK 1 18.00673 5.197825 3.46 0.0023 TEKNOLOGI LRETMUSA 1 0.104056 0.222912 0.47 0.6454 LAG RETMUSA
Durbin-Watson 1.919138 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.00596
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KA
Dependent Variable RETMJPG Label IMPOR KARET JEPANG
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 233156.0 77718.68 45.19 .0001
Error 21 36116.86 1719.850 Corrected Total 24 269272.9
Root MSE 41.47108 R-Square 0.86587 Dependent Mean 709.74968 Adj R-Sq 0.84671
Coeff Var 5.84306 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 121.3821 77.34027 1.57 0.1315 Intercept LWRETPR 1 -0.16343 0.405454 -0.40 0.6910 LAG WRETPR
ERJR 1 -0.18626 0.475717 -0.39 0.6993 LRETMJPG 1 0.891218 0.078829 11.31 .0001 LAG RETMJPG
Durbin-Watson 2.312903 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.15845
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KA
Dependent Variable RETMCHN Label IMPOR KARET CHINA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 6090961 3045481 95.81 .0001
Error 22 699273.1 31785.14 Corrected Total 24 6790234
Root MSE 178.28388 R-Square 0.89702 Dependent Mean 668.62948 Adj R-Sq 0.88766
Coeff Var 26.66408 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 249.1116 132.9975 1.87 0.0744 Intercept LWRETPR 1 -2.43544 1.648839 -1.48 0.1538 LAG WRETPR
LRETMChn 1 0.994459 0.072197 13.77 .0001 LAG RETMChn Durbin-Watson 2.177247
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09049
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable RETCUSA Label KONSUMSI KARET USA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 480854.5 160284.8 71.87 .0001
Error 21 46836.15 2230.293 Corrected Total 24 527690.6
Root MSE 47.22598 R-Square 0.91124 Dependent Mean 967.70400 Adj R-Sq 0.89856
Coeff Var 4.88021 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -178.938 317.1577 -0.56 0.5786 Intercept RETMUSA 1 0.637217 0.107751 5.91 .0001 IMPOR KARET USA
GDPUSR 1 0.004482 0.005296 0.85 0.4069 LRETCUSA 1 0.351660 0.107549 3.27 0.0037 LAG RETCUSA
Durbin-Watson 1.765846 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.0996
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable RETCJPG Label KONSUMSI KARET JEPANG
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 399293.2 199646.6 53.04 .0001
Error 22 82814.35 3764.289 Corrected Total 24 482107.6
Root MSE 61.35380 R-Square 0.82822 Dependent Mean 687.45600 Adj R-Sq 0.81261
Coeff Var 8.92476 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -95.3444 85.28727 -1.12 0.2757 Intercept RETMJPG 1 0.630475 0.190361 3.31 0.0032 IMPOR KARET JEPANG
LRETCJPG 1 0.498916 0.144134 3.46 0.0022 LAG RETCJPG Durbin-Watson 1.848549
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.06393
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable RETCCHN Label KONSUMSI KARET CHINA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 15002602 3750651 159.56 .0001
Error 20 470127.1 23506.35 Corrected Total 24 15472729
Root MSE 153.31782 R-Square 0.96962 Dependent Mean 1103.03600 Adj R-Sq 0.96354
Coeff Var 13.89962 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -1553.53 1243.423 -1.25 0.2259 Intercept RETMCHN 1 0.124196 0.193581 0.64 0.5284 IMPOR KARET CHINA
GDPCHNR 1 0.429109 0.392434 1.09 0.2872 PDKCHN 1 1.136417 0.923965 1.23 0.2330 PDKCHN
LRETCChn 1 0.743635 0.155868 4.77 0.0001 LAG RETCChn Durbin-Watson 1.725757
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.113406
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_CP
Dependent Variable WCPOPR Label HARGA RILL CPO DIPASAR DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 9648155 4824078 141.09 .0001
Error 23 786401.7 34191.38 Uncorrected 25 10434557
Total Root MSE 184.90910 R-Square 0.92463
Dependent Mean 606.26053 Adj R-Sq 0.91808 Coeff Var 30.49994
NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares.
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label NWCPOMX 1 218.0297 87.40115 2.49 0.0202
LWCPOPR 1 0.573470 0.154846 3.70 0.0012 LAG WCPOPR
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model STOCK_CP
Dependent Variable WCPOS Label STOCK CPO DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 34088593 11362864 119.26 .0001
Error 21 2000819 95277.10 Corrected Total 24 36089413
Root MSE 308.66989 R-Square 0.94456 Dependent Mean 3251.17200 Adj R-Sq 0.93664
Coeff Var 9.49411 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 869.3855 232.6926 3.74 0.0012 Intercept WCPOQ 1 0.142682 0.047486 3.00 0.0067 PRODUKSI CPO DUNIA
WCPOC 1 -0.06384 0.050163 -1.27 0.2170 KONSUMSI CPO DUNIA LWCPOS 1 0.336371 0.216670 1.55 0.1355 LAG WCPOS
Durbin-Watson 1.49162 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.171482
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HARGA_KA
Dependent Variable WRETPR Label HARGA RILL KARET DIPASAR DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 143735.3 71867.66 329.63 .0001
Error 23 5014.524 218.0228 Uncorrected 25 148749.8
Total Root MSE 14.76559 R-Square 0.96629
Dependent Mean 73.78889 Adj R-Sq 0.96336 Coeff Var 20.01059
NOTE: The NOINT option changes the definition of the R-Square statistic to: 1 - Residual Sum of SquaresUncorrected Total Sum of Squares.
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label NWRETMX 1 10.51687 7.276482 1.45 0.1619
LWRETPR 1 0.842705 0.109367 7.71 .0001 LAG WRETPR
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model STOCK_KA
Dependent Variable WRETS Label STOCK KARET DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 4824877 1608292 298.11 .0001
Error 21 113293.9 5394.947 Corrected Total 24 4938171
Root MSE 73.45030 R-Square 0.97706 Dependent Mean 1974.02400 Adj R-Sq 0.97378
Coeff Var 3.72084 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -97.0887 74.39201 -1.31 0.2060 Intercept WRETQ 1 1.025798 0.066218 15.49 .0001 PRODUKSI KARET
DUNIA WRETC 1 -0.97768 0.072779 -13.43 .0001 KONSUMSI KARET
DUNIA LWRETS 1 0.982175 0.062040 15.83 .0001 LAG WRETS
Durbin-Watson 1.261465 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.347812
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKSI
Dependent Variable RWCPOQ Label PRODUKSI CPO SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 7.0071E8 2.3357E8 103.57 .0001
Error 21 47358285 2255156 Corrected Total 24 7.4807E8
Root MSE 1501.71783 R-Square 0.93669 Dependent Mean 12762.6708 Adj R-Sq 0.92765
Coeff Var 11.76649 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -1343.90 2143.450 -0.63 0.5374 Intercept WCPOPR 1 0.919510 1.440150 0.64 0.5301 HARGA RILL CPO
DIPASAR DUNIA RWCPOA 1 0.509316 1.162361 0.44 0.6657 LUAS AREAL KS
SISA DUNIA LRWCPOQ 1 0.979827 0.224863 4.36 0.0003 LAG RWCPOQ
Durbin-Watson 2.183993 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.23118
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable RWCPOC Label KONSUMSI CPO SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1.0983E9 2.7457E8 640.63 .0001
Error 20 8571948 428597.4 Corrected Total 24 1.1069E9
Root MSE 654.67352 R-Square 0.99226 Dependent Mean 14510.7120 Adj R-Sq 0.99071
Coeff Var 4.51166 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -11316.1 5714.775 -1.98 0.0616 Intercept WCPOPR 1 0.393543 0.727250 0.54 0.5944 HARGA RILL CPO
DIPASAR DUNIA RWCPOM 1 0.348384 0.095413 3.65 0.0016 IMPOR CPO SISA DUNIA
RWPDK 1 4.539739 2.105608 2.16 0.0434 RWPDK LRWCPOC 1 0.461200 0.183376 2.52 0.0206 LAG RWCPOC
Durbin-Watson 2.114375 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.16611
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_C
Dependent Variable RWCPOX Label EKSPOR CPO SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 4.8336E8 2.4168E8 310.22 .0001
Error 22 17139093 779049.7 Corrected Total 24 5.005E8
Root MSE 882.63791 R-Square 0.96576 Dependent Mean 10435.4960 Adj R-Sq 0.96264
Coeff Var 8.45804 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 271.5729 448.1303 0.61 0.5507 Intercept RWCPOQ 1 0.347535 0.124886 2.78 0.0109 PRODUKSI CPO
SISA DUNIA LRWCPOX 1 0.584294 0.157580 3.71 0.0012 LAG RWCPOX
Durbin-Watson 2.701423 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.36549
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_CP
Dependent Variable RWCPOM Label IMPOR CPO SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 1.0408E9 5.2041E8 313.01 .0001
Error 22 36576974 1662590 Corrected Total 24 1.0774E9
Root MSE 1289.41450 R-Square 0.96605 Dependent Mean 11608.2232 Adj R-Sq 0.96296
Coeff Var 11.10777 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 500.2671 990.1245 0.51 0.6184 Intercept WCPOPR 1 -0.30911 1.193936 -0.26 0.7981 HARGA RILL CPO
DIPASAR DUNIA LRWCPOM 1 1.055851 0.043733 24.14 .0001 LAG RWCPOM
Durbin-Watson 2.295679 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.15974
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PRODUKSI
Dependent Variable RWRETQ Label PRODUKSI KARET SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 46869045 15623015 138.82 .0001
Error 21 2363373 112541.6 Corrected Total 24 49232418
Root MSE 335.47213 R-Square 0.95200 Dependent Mean 4817.22704 Adj R-Sq 0.94514
Coeff Var 6.96401 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -3760.20 1367.481 -2.75 0.0120 Intercept WRETPR 1 1.829927 2.985338 0.61 0.5465 HARGA RILL KARET
DIPASAR DUNIA RWRETA 1 0.485668 0.170233 2.85 0.0095 LUAS AREAL KARET
SISA DUNIA LRWRETQ 1 0.518367 0.176476 2.94 0.0079 LAG RWRETQ
Durbin-Watson 2.777879 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.43432
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI
Dependent Variable RWRETC Label KONSUMSI KARET SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 15940035 5313345 41.79 .0001
Error 21 2669868 127136.6 Corrected Total 24 18609902
Root MSE 356.56214 R-Square 0.85654 Dependent Mean 3719.60400 Adj R-Sq 0.83604
Coeff Var 9.58602 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 -3103.69 888.1769 -3.49 0.0022 Intercept dWRETPR 1 -6.11454 5.267888 -1.16 0.2588
RWPDK2 1 1.602692 0.372638 4.30 0.0003 PENDUDUK SISA DUNIA KARET
LRWRETC 1 0.141775 0.199592 0.71 0.4853 LAG RWRETC Durbin-Watson 1.995515
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.08282
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR_K
Dependent Variable RWRETX Label EKSPOR KARET SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 13436523 4478841 143.32 .0001
Error 21 656273.1 31251.10 Corrected Total 24 14092796
Root MSE 176.77981 R-Square 0.95343 Dependent Mean 3373.08208 Adj R-Sq 0.94678
Coeff Var 5.24090 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 364.2089 191.8559 1.90 0.0715 Intercept dWRETPR 1 3.863745 2.628548 1.47 0.1564
RWRETQ 1 0.152776 0.066579 2.29 0.0322 PRODUKSI KARET SISA DUNIA
LRWRETX 1 0.690651 0.131317 5.26 .0001 LAG RWRETX Durbin-Watson 1.572663
Number of Observations 25 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.175113
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR_KA
Dependent Variable RWRETM Label IMPOR KARET SISA DUNIA
Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 12917014 6458507 15.07 .0001
Error 22 9430381 428653.7 Corrected Total 24 22347395
Root MSE 654.71650 R-Square 0.57801 Dependent Mean 3191.80696 Adj R-Sq 0.53965
Coeff Var 20.51241 Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label
Intercept 1 1001.396 614.3641 1.63 0.1173 Intercept WRETPR 1 -1.82183 5.826178 -0.31 0.7575 HARGA RILL KARET
DIPASAR DUNIA LRWRETM 1 0.748898 0.136565 5.48 .0001 LAG RWRETM
Durbin-Watson 2.364194 Number of Observations 25
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21657
Lampiran 4. Program Komputer Validasi Model Menggunakan SASETS Versi 9.0 Prosedur SYMNLIN Metoda Newton
Simulasi Dasar OPTIONS NODATE NONUMBER;
data
DATAOK; SET ANALISIS;
CREATE DATA QCPO1 = LATMWIT1 YWIT1;
QCPO2 = LATMWIT2 YWIT2; QCPO3 = LATMWIT3 YWIT3;
QCPO = QCPO1 + QCPO2 + QCPO3; QRET1 = LATMRET1 YRET1;
QRET2 = LATMRET2 YRET2; QRET3 = LATMRET3 YRET3;
QRET = QRET1 + QRET2 + QRET3 ; DDCPO = DCPOMG + DCPOL;
DDRET = DRETIB + DRETL; LSTCPO= LAGSTCPO;
LSTRET= LAGSTRET; MCPO = DDCPO - QCPO + XCPO + STCPO - LSTCPO;
MRET = DDRET - QRET + XRET + STRET - LSTRET; WCPOQ = QCPO + RWCPOQ;
WCPOC = DDCPO + CPOCInd + CPOCBld + CPOCChn + RWCPOC; WCPOX = XCPO + RWCPOX;
WCPOM = MCPO + CPOMInd + CPOMBld + CPOMChn + RWCPOM; WRETQ = QRET + RWRETQ;
WRETC = DDRET + RETCUSA + RETCJPG + RETCChn + RWRETC; WRETX = XRET + RWRETX;
WRETM = MRET + RETMUSA + RETMJPG + RETMChn + RWRETM; RWCPOA= WLATMWIT-LATMWIT;
RWRETA= WLATMRET-LATMRET; Me rill kan data
HCPOR= HCPO IHKI100; L3HCPOR= L3HCPO IHKI100;
L4HCPOR= L4HCPO IHKI100; INTRR= INTR IHKI100;
L3INTRR= L3INTR IHKI100; L4INTRR=L4INTR IHKI100;
UPAHR= UPAH IHKI100; HRETR= HRET IHKI100;
L3HRETR=L3HRET IHKI100; L4HRETR= L4HRET IHKI100;
HPUKR=HPUK IHKI100; HMGDR= HMGD IHKI100;
LHMGDR= LAGHMGDR; PCPOR= PCPO IHKA100;
WCPOPR= WCPOP IHKA100; PRETR= PRET IHKA100;
ERR= ERIHKAIHKI; ERJR= ERJIHKAIHKJ;
ERCR= ERCIHKAIHKC; ERIR= ERIIHKAIHKID;
ERBR= ERBIHKAIHKB; ERA= ERIHKA100;
WRETPR= WRETP IHKA100; GDPUSR= GDPUSIHKA100;
GDPJPGR= GDPJPGIHKJ100; GDPCHNR= GDPCHNIHKC100;
GDPINDR= GDPINDIHKID100; GDPBLDR= GDPBLDIHKB100;
MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG LLATMWIT1= LAG LATMWIT1;
LLATMWIT2= LAG LATMWIT2; LLATMWIT3= LAG LATMWIT3;
LLATMWIT= LAG LATMWIT; LYWIT1= LAGYWIT1;
LYWIT2= LAG YWIT2; LYWIT3= LAG YWIT3;
LYWIT= LAG YWIT; LHCPOR= LAG HCPOR;
LHPUKR= LAG HPUKR; LUPAHR= LAG UPAHR;
LINTRR= LAG INTRR; dUPAHR= UPAHR-LUPAHR;
dHCPOR= HCPOR-LHCPOR; dHPUKR= HPUKR-LHPUKR;
dLATMWIT1= LATMWIT1-LLATMWIT1; LXCPO= LAG XCPO;
LDCPOMG= LAG DCPOMG; LPCPOR= LAG PCPOR;
LMCPO= LAG MCPO; LMRET= LAG MRET;
LCPOMInd= LAG CPOMInd; LCPOMBld= LAG CPOMBld;
LCPOMChn= LAG CPOMChn; LCPOCInd= LAG CPOCInd;
LCPOCBld= LAG CPOCBld; LCPOCChn= LAG CPOCChn;
LWCPOPR= LAG WCPOPR; LWCPOS= LAG WCPOS;
LRWCPOQ= LAG RWCPOQ; LRWCPOC= LAG RWCPOC;
LRWCPOX= LAG RWCPOX; LRWCPOM= LAG RWCPOM;
dWCPOPR= WCPOPR-LWCPOPR; LLATMRET1= LAG LATMRET1;
LLATMRET2= LAG LATMRET2; LLATMRET3= LAG LATMRET3;
LLATMRET= LAG LATMRET; LYRET1= LAGYRET1;
LYRET2= LAG YRET2; LYRET3= LAG YRET3;
LYRET= LAG YRET; LHRETR= LAG HRETR;
dHRETR= HRETR-LHRETR; dLATMRET1= LATMRET1-LLATMRET1;
LXRET= LAG XRET; LDRETIB= LAG DRETIB;
LPRETR= LAG PRETR; LMRET= LAG MRET;
LRETMUSA= LAG RETMUSA; LRETMJPG= LAG RETMJPG;
LRETMChn= LAG RETMChn; LRETCUSA= LAG RETCUSA;
LRETCJPG= LAG RETCJPG; LRETCChn= LAG RETCChn;
LWRETPR= LAG WRETPR; LWRETS= LAG WRETS;
LRWRETQ= LAG RWRETQ; LRWRETC= LAG RWRETC;
LRWRETX= LAG RWRETX; LRWRETM= LAG RWRETM;
dWRETPR= WRETPR-LWRETPR; WRETNX= WRETMWRETX;
L3PCPOR= LAG3PCPOR; L3PRETR= LAG3PRETR;
RHCPOR= HCPOR-LHCPORLHCPOR; RHRETR= HRETR-LHRETRLHRETR;
L3UPAHR= LAG3UPAHR; L3HPUKR= LAG3HPUKR;
LTCPO= LAGTCPO; DHMGDR=HMGDR-LHMGDR;
LQMGD=LAGQMGD; DWRETS= WRETS-LWRETS;
LWRETM= LAGWRETM; LWRETX= LAGWRETX;
LWRETQ=LAGWRETQ; DWRETPR= WRETPR-LWRETPR;
NWRETMX=WRETMWRETX; NWCPOMX=WCPOMWCPOX;
DWRETMX=WRETM-WRETX; RL4HRETCPO= L4HRETRL4HCPOR;
RL3HCPORET= L3HCPORL3HRETR; RL4HRETINTR= L4HRETRL4INTRR;
RHCPOPUK= HCPORHPUKR; RHCPOMG= HCPORHMGDR;
RUN; TITLE SIMULASI DASAR;
PROC SIMNLIN DATA= DATAOK DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS
LATMWIT1 LATMWIT2 LATMWIT3 LATMRET1 LATMRET2 LATMRET3 YWIT1 YWIT2 YWIT3 YRET1 YRET2 YRET3 QCPO1 QCPO2 QCPO3 QCPO
QRET1 RET2 QRET3 QRET XCPO XRET DCPOMG DRETIB HCPOR HRETR PCPOR PRETR DDCPO DDRET WCPOPR WRETPR CPOMInd CPOMBld CPOMChn CPOCInd
CPOCBld CPOCChn RETCUSA RETMUSA RETCJPG RETMJPG RETCCHN RETMCHN WCPOS WRETS WCPOQ WRETQ WCPOC WRETC WCPOX WRETX WCPOM WRETM
RWCPOQ RWCPOC RWCPOX RWCPOM RWRETQ RWRETC RWRETX RWRETM ;
INSTRUMENTS L3HCPOR L3HRETR L3INTRR HPUKR UPAHR ERR TEK L4HRETR
L4HCPOR HMGDR LTCPO ERIR ERJR GDPINDR GDPBLDR GDPUSR GDPJPGR RWCPOA RWRETA RWPDK RWPDK2 LLATMRET1 LYRET1 LYRET2 LYRET3 LXCPO
LXRET LDCPOMG LDRETIB LHCPOR LHRETR LPCPOR LPRETR LCPOMIND LCPOMBLD LCPOMCHN LCPOCBLD LCPOCIND LCPOCCHN LRETMUSA LRETMJPG
LRETMCHN LRETCUSA LRETCJPG LRETCCHN LWCPOPR LWRETPR LWCPOS LWRETS LRWCPOQ LRWCPOC LRWCPOX LRWCPOM LRWRETQ LRWRETC
LRWRETX LRWRETM ;
PARM A10 952.1166 A11 0.132260 A12 -0.04927 A13 -4.50183 A14 -0.43623 A15 -0.00270 A16 91.26334
A20 278.1264 A21 0.006119 A22 -0.00543 A23 -0.08262 A24 -0.01271 A25 -0.00031 A26 19.44779
A30 1013.487 A31 0.138446 A32 -0.05888 A33 -6.29312 A34 -0.25498 A35 -0.00296 A36 101.7707
A100 1048.815 A101 14.94136 A102 -0.80807 A103 -0.09098 A104 -0.00026 A105 33.04755 A106 0.239932
A200 174.8572 A201 0.000587 A202 -0.00408 A203 0.331123 A204 -0.02833 A205 -0.00003 A206 3.015313
A300 127.8814 A301 0.012569 A302 -0.00147 A303 -0.02329 A304 -0.00008 A305 1.992202 B10 2.954708 B11 -0.00110 B12-0.00101 B13 -3.15E-6 B14 0.177912
B20 1.491859 B21 -0.00035 B22 -1.99E-7 B23 0.711378 B30 7.648976 B31 0.000045 B32 -0.00049 B33 -0.00114 B34 -5.75E-6 B35 -0.00820
B100 0.856935 B101 8.313E-6 B102 -0.00014 B103 -0.00021 B104 -3.71E-7 B105 0.024413 B200 0.978684 B201 2.931E-6 B202 -0.00122 B203 -0.00018 B204 -5.54E-7 B205 0.009179
B206 0.536320 B300 3.541727 B301 3.59E-6 B302 -0.01830 B303 -0.00045 B304 -1.39E-6 B305 0.074873
B306 0.321849 C10 -332.776 C11 0.260409 C12 -0.24881 C13 0.281501 C14 0.059993 C15 0.792660
C100 -69.3809 C101 0.888893 C102 -0.67660 C103 0.034236 C104 0.013011 C105 0.025661 D10 2546.041 D11 -0.40480 D12 0.208530 D13 -14.5784 D14 0.474997
D100 13.16969 D101 -0.00113 D102 -0.08082 D103 1.112203 E10 -1260.64 E11 3.607153 E12 0.132490 E13 0.316096 E14 0.381388
E100 -230.929 E101 3.490522 E102 0.362422 E103 0.154859 F11 0.567677 F12 -0.6639 F13 0.306649
F100 -94.5212 F101 17.848 F102 0.073680 G10 589.7224 G11 -0.65418 G12 -28.7171 G13 88.96120 G14 0.727161
G20 67.81701 G21 -0.06322 G22 1.042980 G30 380.4841 G31 -0.40889 G32 1.053616
G100 788.0840 G101 -0.93243 G102 19.50612 G200 121.3821 G201 -0.16343 G202 -0.18626 G203 0.891218
G300 249.1116 G301 -2.43544 G302 0.994459 H10 -309.002 H11 1.079924 H12 0.208026 H13 0.049672
H20 -448.286 H21 0.322396 H22 0.014986 H23 0.839838 H30 -398.794 H31 0.811040 H32 0.484747 H33 0.108682
H100 -178.938 H101 0.637217 H102 0.004482 H103 0.351660 H200 -95.3444 H201 0.630475 H202 0.498916
H300 -1553.53 H301 0.124196 H302 0.429109 H303 1.136417 H304 0.743635 I11 218.0297 I12 0.573470
J10 869.3855 J11 0.142682 J12 -0.06384 J13 0.336371 I101 10.51687 I102 0.842705
J100 -97.0887 J101 1.025798 J102-0.97768 J103 0.982175 K10 -1343.90 K11 0.919510 K12 0.509316 K13 0.979827
L10 -2554.63 L11 -0.01494 L12 0.984209 L13 1.015544 M10 271.5729 M11 0.347535 M12 0.584294
N10 500.2671 N11 -0.30911 N12 1.055851 K100 -3760.20 K101 1.829927 K102 0.485668 K103 0.518367
L100 -3103.69 L101 -6.11454 L102 1.602692 L103 0.141775 M100 364.2089 M101 3.863745 M102 0.152776 M103 0.690651
N100 1001.396 N101 -1.82183 N102 0.748898;
PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL LATMWIT1= A10 + A11L3HCPOR + A12L3HRETR + A13L3INTRR + A14HPUKR +
A15LUPAHR + A16TEK; LATMWIT2= A20 + A21L3HCPOR+ A22L3HRETR + A23L3INTRR + A24HPUKR +
A25LUPAHR + A26TEK; LATMWIT3= A30 + A31L3HCPOR + A32L3HRETR + A33L3INTRR + A34HPUKR +
A35LUPAHR + A36TEK; LATMRET1= A100 + A101L4HRETRL4HCPOR + A102L4INTRR + A103HPUKR +
A104UPAHR-LUPAHR + A105TEK + A106LLATMRET1; LATMRET2= A200 + A201L4HRETR + A202L4HCPOR + A203L4INTRR +
A204HPUKR + A205LUPAHR + A206TEK; LATMRET3= A300 + A301L4HRETRL4INTRR + A302L3HCPOR + A303HPUKR-
LHPUKR + A304UPAHR-LUPAHR + A305TEK; YWIT1= B10 + B11LATMWIT1 + B12HPUKR + B13LUPAHR + B14TEK;
YWIT2= B20 + B21HPUKR + B22UPAHR + B23LYWIT2; YWIT3= B30 + B31HCPOR + B32LATMWIT3 + B33HPUKR + B34UPAHR +
B35INTRR; YRET1= B100 + B101LHRETR + B102LATMRET1 + B103HPUKR + B104LUPAHR +
B105TEK; YRET2= B200 + B201HRETR + B202LATMRET2 + B203LHPUKR + B204 LUPAHR +
B205TEK + B206LYRET2; YRET3= B300 + B301HRETR + B302LATMRET3 + B303HPUKR + B304UPAHR +
B305TEK + B306LYRET3; XCPO= C10 + C11QCPO + C12DDCPO + C13LPCPOR + C14LERR + C15LXCPO;
XRET= C100 + C101QRET +C102DDRET + C103PRETR + C104ERR +C105LXRET; DCPOMG= D10 + D11LHCPOR + D12HMGDR + D13INTRR + D14LDCPOMG;
DRETIB= D100 + D101HRETR + D102INTRR + D103LDRETIB; HCPOR= E10 + E11PCPOR + E12ERR + E13DDCPO +E14LHCPOR;
HRETR= E100 + E101PRETR + E102ERR + E103LHRETR; PCPOR= F11WCPOPR + F12TCPO + F13LPCPOR;
PRETR= F100+ F101WRETPR + F102LPRETR; CPOMInd= G10 + G11WCPOPR-LWCPOPR + G12ERIR + G13TEK + G14LCPOMInd;
CPOMBld= G20 + G21WCPOPR + G22LCPOMBld; CPOMChn= G30 + G31WCPOPR + G32LCPOMChn;
CPOCInd= H10 + H11CPOMInd + H12GDPINDR + H13LCPOCInd; CPOCBld= H20 + H21CPOMBld + H22GDPBLDR + H23LCPOCBld;
CPOCChn= H30 + H31CPOMCHN + H32GDPCHNR + H33LCPOCChn; RETMUSA= G100 + G101WRETPR + G102TEK ;
RETMJPG= G200 + G201LWRETPR + G202ERJR + G203LRETMJPG; RETMChn= G300 + G301LWRETPR + G302LRETMChn;
RETCUSA= H100 + H101RETMUSA + H102GDPUSR + H103LRETCUSA; RETCJPG= H200 + H201RETMJPG + H202LRETCJPG;
RETCChn= H300 + H301RETMChn + H302GDPCHNR + H303PDKCHN + H304LRETCChn;
WCPOPR= I11WCPOMWCPOX + I12LWCPOPR; WCPOS= J10 + J11WCPOQ + J12WCPOC + J13LWCPOS;
WRETPR= I101WRETMWRETX + I102LWRETPR; WRETS= J100 + J101WRETQ + J102WRETC + J103LWRETS;
RWCPOQ= K10 + K11WCPOPR + K12RWCPOA + K13LRWCPOQ; RWCPOC= L10 + L11WCPOPR + L12RWPDK + L13LRWCPOC;
RWCPOX= M10 + M11RWCPOQ + M12LRWCPOX; RWCPOM= N10 + N11WCPOPR + N12LRWCPOM;
RWRETQ= K100 + K101WRETPR + K102RWRETA + K103LRWRETQ; RWRETC= L100 + L101WRETPR-LWRETPR + L102RWPDK2 + L103LRWRETC
RWRETX= M100 + M101WRETPR-LWRETPR + M102RWRETQ + M103LRWRETX; RWRETM= N100 + N101WRETPR + N102LRWRETM;
QCPO1= LATMWIT1YWIT1; QCPO2= LATMWIT2YWIT2;
QCPO3= LATMWIT3YWIT3; QCPO = QCPO1 + QCPO2 + QCPO3;
QRET1= LATMRET1YRET1; QRET2= LATMRET2YRET2;
QRET3= LATMRET3YRET3; QRET = QRET1 + QRET2 + QRET3 ;
DDCPO= DCPOMG + DCPOL; DDRET= DRETIB + DRETL;
WCPOQ= QCPO + RWCPOQ; WCPOC= DDCPO + CPOCInd + CPOCBld + CPOCChn + RWCPOC;
WCPOX= XCPO + RWCPOX; WCPOM= MCPO + CPOMInd + CPOMBld + CPOMChn + RWCPOM;
WRETQ= QRET +RWRETQ; WRETC= DDRET + RETCUSA + RETCJPG + RETCChn + RWRETC;
WRETX= XRET + RWRETX; WRETM= MRET + RETMUSA + RETMJPG + RETMChn + RWRETM;
RANGE TAHUN 1994 TO 2008;
RUN ;
Lampiran 5. Hasil Validasi Model Menggunakan SASETS Versi 9.0 Prosedur SYMNLIN Metoda Newton
The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary
Model Variables 62 Endogenous 62
Parameters 198 Range Variable TAHUN
Equations 62 Number of Statements 62
Program Lag Length 4
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Data Set Options DATA= DATAOK
Solution Summary Variables Solved 62
Simulation Lag Length 4 Solution Range TAHUN
First 1994 Last 2008
Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8
Maximum CC 3.606E-9 Maximum Iterations 3
Total Iterations 43 Average Iterations 2.866667
Observations Processed Read 19
Lagged 4 Solved 15
First 12 Last 26
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
LATMWIT1 15 15 1099.6 636.0 1108.5 621.9 LATMWIT1 LATMWIT2 15 15 500.2 101.2 496.2 92.2511 LATMWIT2
LATMWIT3 15 15 1394.8 707.4 1362.1 713.8 LATMWIT3 LATMRET1 15 15 2051.6 216.5 2034.0 223.0 LATMRET1
LATMRET2 15 15 187.4 12.4472 191.5 10.0248 LATMRET2 LATMRET3 15 15 165.0 17.1718 163.5 14.7938 LATMRET3
YWIT1 15 15 2.7071 0.3157 2.7198 0.2370 YWIT1 YWIT2 15 15 3.4482 0.6241 3.4841 0.5085 YWIT2
YWIT3 15 15 3.4163 0.5035 3.4337 0.3122 YWIT3 YRET1 15 15 0.7062 0.1193 0.7165 0.1046 YRET1
YRET2 15 15 1.1004 0.1228 1.0988 0.1079 YRET2 YRET3 15 15 1.3415 0.1667 1.3644 0.1854 YRET3
QCPO1 15 15 3080.6 2051.5 3108.9 1973.0 QCPO2 15 15 1681.6 253.9 1699.0 247.5
QCPO3 15 15 4699.6 2587.6 4605.2 2435.5 QCPO 15 15 9461.9 4807.7 9413.1 4593.5
QRET1 15 15 1469.2 402.4 1476.5 377.9 QRET2 15 15 207.2 35.5315 210.7 26.7673
QRET3 15 15 222.1 42.0455 224.3 45.5519 QRET 15 15 1898.5 472.9 1911.5 444.7
XCPO 15 15 5981.5 4240.0 5958.6 3981.4 XCPO XRET 15 15 1694.1 385.4 1707.6 340.7 XRET
DCPOMG 15 15 2998.1 945.4 2958.1 644.1 DCPOMG DRETIB 15 15 113.8 56.1224 115.1 53.6635 DRETIB
HCPOR 15 15 4683.8 1200.9 4569.2 742.3 HRETR 15 15 9289.6 2104.4 8941.1 1339.8
PCPOR 15 15 490.8 169.7 456.7 88.1399 PRETR 15 15 1287.8 549.7 1219.4 376.5
DDCPO 15 15 3795.6 1059.1 3755.6 901.7 DDRET 15 15 193.3 105.1 194.6 102.7
WCPOPR 15 15 558.5 160.1 563.9 89.4304 WRETPR 15 15 70.8772 26.8778 68.6625 19.2219
CPOMIND 15 15 2837.5 1369.5 2784.0 1358.8 CPOMIND CPOMBLD 15 15 994.4 428.7 986.2 437.7 CPOMBLD
CPOMCHN 15 15 2944.9 1630.8 2929.6 1584.0 CPOMCHN CPOCIND 15 15 2994.7 1635.5 2947.7 1533.8 CPOCIND
CPOCBLD 15 15 922.1 634.5 929.1 612.3 CPOCBLD CPOCCHN 15 15 2835.2 1636.7 2814.5 1606.4 CPOCCHN
RETCUSA 15 15 1071.4 71.4479 1062.9 67.1291 RETCUSA RETMUSA 15 15 1103.5 104.0 1094.7 86.0003 RETMUSA
RETCJPG 15 15 769.1 78.1285 763.6 80.1537 RETCJPG
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label
RETMJPG 15 15 773.3 74.3836 767.3 66.6478 RETMJPG RETCCHN 15 15 1505.9 810.5 1502.9 788.6 RETCCHN
RETMCHN 15 15 922.0 523.1 907.5 488.4 RETMCHN WCPOS 15 15 3987.2 995.5 3937.6 994.3 WCPOS
WRETS 15 15 2216.6 404.2 2188.8 474.2 WRETS WCPOQ 15 15 25555.8 9313.8 25532.0 8824.6
WRETQ 15 15 7636.3 1458.0 7602.6 1447.2 WCPOC 15 15 29175.6 9218.3 29177.2 9287.9
WRETC 15 15 7809.0 1533.4 7801.0 1494.8 WCPOX 15 15 19168.5 7974.1 19102.0 7569.7
WRETX 15 15 5479.7 1090.8 5477.1 1020.3 WCPOM 15 15 22335.6 9078.4 22157.2 9016.5
WRETM 15 15 6491.0 1341.1 6339.6 1183.2 RWCPOQ 15 15 16093.9 4737.2 16118.9 4350.6 RWCPOQ
RWCPOC 15 15 18628.1 5564.6 18730.3 5261.7 RWCPOC RWCPOX 15 15 13186.9 3809.4 13143.4 3620.4 RWCPOX
RWCPOM 15 15 15214.0 6417.7 15112.6 6312.8 RWCPOM RWRETQ 15 15 5737.8 1015.9 5691.1 1024.1 RWRETQ
RWRETC 15 15 4269.2 600.4 4277.0 513.1 RWRETC RWRETX 15 15 3785.6 730.7 3769.5 692.3 RWRETX
RWRETM 15 15 3703.3 746.3 3581.2 581.1 RWRETM Statistics of fit
Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square
LATMWIT1 15 8.8625 2.8463 127.9 15.3420 156.6 21.6356 0.9350 LATMWIT2 15 -3.9985 -0.3999 16.8445 3.1555 22.8163 3.9962 0.9455
LATMWIT3 15 -32.6848 -3.0481 151.6 14.2042 167.7 18.3870 0.9398 LATMRET1 15 -17.6115 -0.8707 39.1601 1.9379 48.6016 2.4525 0.9460
LATMRET2 15 4.0598 2.3140 7.0160 3.8051 8.1569 4.4498 0.5399 LATMRET3 15 -1.5467 -0.7605 4.5984 2.7598 6.0253 3.6066 0.8681
YWIT1 15 0.0126 1.0648 0.1728 6.4521 0.2201 8.1475 0.4791 YWIT2 15 0.0359 2.2855 0.2901 8.8907 0.3744 12.0666 0.6144
YWIT3 15 0.0174 1.6241 0.2730 8.0720 0.3376 9.9232 0.5182 YRET1 15 0.0103 1.8899 0.0287 4.2718 0.0363 5.4825 0.9006
YRET2 15 -0.00154 0.1325 0.0493 4.4462 0.0646 5.5959 0.7032 YRET3 15 0.0229 1.9923 0.0923 6.9832 0.1214 9.3425 0.4320
QCPO1 15 28.2275 4.0023 243.8 14.0203 360.2 24.9366 0.9670
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008 Statistics of fit
Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square
QCPO2 15 17.4243 1.8227 159.3 8.8763 227.9 11.7109 0.1367 QCPO3 15 -94.4273 -2.2551 482.5 12.0925 621.8 16.3800 0.9381
QCPO 15 -48.7755 0.1538 746.4 9.4673 1053.4 14.2379 0.9486 QRET1 15 7.3649 1.0023 65.7952 4.6270 79.5278 5.7174 0.9581
QRET2 15 3.4575 2.4271 11.3366 5.4769 14.8395 6.8733 0.8131 QRET3 15 2.2038 0.9694 12.3827 5.5532 15.0143 6.8187 0.8634
QRET 15 13.0262 1.0762 66.2490 3.5036 86.6860 4.5148 0.9640 XCPO 15 -22.9657 10.0728 719.7 22.8637 979.1 47.8906 0.9429
XRET 15 13.5017 1.4244 74.8491 4.3674 88.4046 4.8752 0.9436 DCPOMG 15 -39.9858 10.1590 861.0 34.2184 1008.0 45.3727 -.2179
DRETIB 15 1.2741 3.4178 6.7049 7.9040 9.9931 15.0844 0.9660 HCPOR 15 -114.6 1.1438 712.8 15.0569 997.9 19.7409 0.2602
HRETR 15 -348.5 -0.2267 1488.0 16.2919 1894.3 20.6511 0.1319 PCPOR 15 -34.0981 0.0350 106.7 22.2281 127.2 25.7597 0.3982
PRETR 15 -68.3466 1.3347 231.9 18.6917 291.3 22.7934 0.6991 DDCPO 15 -39.9858 4.0402 861.0 24.9187 1008.0 30.7050 0.0294
DDRET 15 1.2741 1.8470 6.7049 4.4646 9.9931 8.3349 0.9903 WCPOPR 15 5.3892 6.7122 103.5 19.9563 126.6 25.8627 0.3299
WRETPR 15 -2.2147 2.3619 12.6112 18.6703 14.7089 21.7758 0.6791 CPOMIND 15 -53.5059 -0.9995 399.4 13.1937 545.2 16.3899 0.8302
CPOMBLD 15 -8.1911 -0.7152 47.1823 5.3260 59.3481 6.5104 0.9795 CPOMCHN 15 -15.2941 2.8222 339.8 15.8047 395.7 20.8998 0.9369
CPOCIND 15 -47.0080 -1.8598 544.5 17.8898 734.7 21.3507 0.7838 CPOCBLD 15 7.0128 9.0356 75.9912 17.1105 109.1 24.7951 0.9683
CPOCCHN 15 -20.6495 1.9366 304.1 13.6500 358.2 17.4025 0.9487 RETCUSA 15 -8.5055 -0.4960 69.2472 6.5361 80.4137 7.6649 -.3572
RETMUSA 15 -8.7879 -0.3168 76.3385 6.9880 95.0198 8.8018 0.1052 RETCJPG 15 -5.5213 -0.6992 19.2217 2.5755 25.5778 3.4795 0.8852
RETMJPG 15 -6.0016 -0.5439 33.3330 4.4006 41.5928 5.6048 0.6650 RETCCHN 15 -2.9854 0.6490 121.1 8.5426 148.1 9.6607 0.9642
RETMCHN 15 -14.4962 3.1283 100.6 16.3966 123.2 21.9509 0.9406 WCPOS 15 -49.6177 -0.3742 310.9 9.0413 391.3 12.4521 0.8345
WRETS 15 -27.7568 -0.7260 291.7 12.5846 362.0 14.7189 0.1410 WCPOQ 15 -23.8192 0.8017 1171.0 5.1046 1817.4 8.9317 0.9592
WRETQ 15 -33.6773 -0.3855 197.4 2.4687 249.3 2.8975 0.9687 WCPOC 15 1.5629 -0.0229 797.1 2.7296 909.5 3.1028 0.9896
WRETC 15 -7.9662 -0.00907 164.8 2.1469 198.0 2.5205 0.9821 WCPOX 15 -66.4971 0.8985 1003.7 6.4300 1284.5 9.4881 0.9722
WRETX 15 -2.5476 0.2683 201.4 3.5943 234.7 4.0607 0.9504 WCPOM 15 -178.4 -0.2812 1173.0 5.5084 1821.3 7.4943 0.9569
WRETM 15 -151.4 -1.6039 448.0 6.2974 618.7 8.4549 0.7720
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008 Statistics of fit
Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square
RWCPOQ 15 24.9563 1.3089 1229.0 7.5438 1691.9 10.3053 0.8633 RWCPOC 15 102.2 1.1422 696.5 3.7640 908.7 4.7613 0.9714
RWCPOX 15 -43.5314 0.2326 771.9 5.8556 883.9 6.3330 0.9423 RWCPOM 15 -101.4 0.2519 868.7 5.8137 1465.8 8.5068 0.9441
RWRETQ 15 -46.7036 -0.7914 164.2 2.6976 213.0 3.3144 0.9529 RWRETC 15 7.7719 0.5070 155.5 3.4765 205.5 4.3785 0.8745
RWRETX 15 -16.0492 -0.1167 170.0 4.4685 192.9 4.9757 0.9254 RWRETM 15 -122.1 -1.9083 356.3 8.8978 507.3 12.7031 0.5050
Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions
Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U
LATMWIT1 15 24522.5 0.97 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.1243 0.0621 LATMWIT2 15 520.6 0.98 0.03 0.07 0.90 0.14 0.83 0.0448 0.0225
LATMWIT3 15 28116.3 0.97 0.04 0.02 0.94 0.00 0.96 0.1080 0.0544 LATMRET1 15 2362.1 0.98 0.13 0.05 0.82 0.02 0.85 0.0236 0.0118
LATMRET2 15 66.5357 0.81 0.25 0.00 0.75 0.08 0.67 0.0434 0.0215 LATMRET3 15 36.3043 0.94 0.07 0.05 0.89 0.15 0.79 0.0363 0.0183
YWIT1 15 0.0484 0.70 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.12 0.88 0.0808 0.0404 YWIT2 15 0.1402 0.79 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.09 0.90 0.1070 0.0533
YWIT3 15 0.1140 0.73 0.00 0.02 0.97 0.30 0.70 0.0978 0.0489 YRET1 15 0.00132 0.96 0.08 0.06 0.86 0.15 0.77 0.0508 0.0252
YRET2 15 0.00418 0.84 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.05 0.95 0.0584 0.0292 YRET3 15 0.0147 0.76 0.04 0.22 0.75 0.02 0.94 0.0898 0.0445
QCPO1 15 129764 0.98 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.04 0.95 0.0983 0.0493 QCPO2 15 51927.4 0.56 0.01 0.20 0.79 0.00 0.99 0.1341 0.0667
QCPO3 15 386620 0.97 0.02 0.01 0.96 0.06 0.92 0.1168 0.0592 QCPO 15 1109692 0.97 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.04 0.96 0.0999 0.0503
QRET1 15 6324.7 0.98 0.01 0.04 0.95 0.09 0.90 0.0523 0.0262 QRET2 15 220.2 0.92 0.05 0.15 0.79 0.33 0.62 0.0706 0.0351
QRET3 15 225.4 0.94 0.02 0.15 0.83 0.05 0.93 0.0665 0.0330 QRET 15 7514.5 0.98 0.02 0.05 0.93 0.10 0.88 0.0444 0.0222
XCPO 15 958631 0.97 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.07 0.93 0.1351 0.0683 XRET 15 7815.4 0.98 0.02 0.15 0.83 0.24 0.74 0.0510 0.0255
DCPOMG 15 1015998 0.18 0.00 0.20 0.79 0.08 0.92 0.3216 0.1637 DRETIB 15 99.8618 0.98 0.02 0.02 0.96 0.06 0.93 0.0793 0.0396
HCPOR 15 995811 0.53 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.20 0.79 0.2068 0.1056
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008 Theil Forecast Error Statistics
MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U HRETR 15 3588267 0.44 0.03 0.04 0.92 0.15 0.81 0.1992 0.1022
PCPOR 15 16176.9 0.68 0.07 0.05 0.88 0.38 0.54 0.2458 0.1295 PRETR 15 84859.8 0.86 0.06 0.11 0.84 0.33 0.62 0.2091 0.1093
DDCPO 15 1015998 0.44 0.00 0.17 0.83 0.02 0.98 0.2564 0.1295 DDRET 15 99.8618 1.00 0.02 0.04 0.95 0.06 0.93 0.0458 0.0229
WCPOPR 15 16037.1 0.58 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.29 0.71 0.2185 0.1101 WRETPR 15 216.4 0.84 0.02 0.05 0.93 0.25 0.72 0.1949 0.1003
CPOMIND 15 297194 0.92 0.01 0.03 0.96 0.00 0.99 0.1741 0.0878 CPOMBLD 15 3522.2 0.99 0.02 0.05 0.94 0.02 0.96 0.0551 0.0276
CPOMCHN 15 156588 0.97 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.1185 0.0595 CPOCIND 15 539840 0.89 0.00 0.01 0.98 0.02 0.98 0.2170 0.1099
CPOCBLD 15 11905.2 0.98 0.00 0.01 0.98 0.04 0.96 0.0985 0.0494 CPOCCHN 15 128281 0.97 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.1103 0.0554
RETCUSA 15 6466.4 0.29 0.01 0.31 0.68 0.00 0.99 0.0749 0.0376 RETMUSA 15 9028.8 0.48 0.01 0.13 0.86 0.03 0.96 0.0858 0.0431
RETCJPG 15 654.2 0.95 0.05 0.05 0.90 0.01 0.95 0.0331 0.0166 RETMJPG 15 1730.0 0.82 0.02 0.02 0.96 0.03 0.95 0.0536 0.0269
RETCCHN 15 21939.2 0.98 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.02 0.98 0.0873 0.0438 RETMCHN 15 15181.2 0.97 0.01 0.02 0.96 0.07 0.91 0.1172 0.0594
WCPOS 15 153090 0.92 0.02 0.04 0.94 0.00 0.98 0.0954 0.0480 WRETS 15 131019 0.65 0.01 0.32 0.67 0.03 0.96 0.1608 0.0807
WCPOQ 15 3303050 0.98 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.07 0.93 0.0671 0.0336 WRETQ 15 62128.8 0.98 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.98 0.0321 0.0161
WCPOC 15 827271 0.99 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.01 0.99 0.0298 0.0149 WRETC 15 39203.2 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.98 0.04 0.96 0.0249 0.0125
WCPOX 15 1649874 0.99 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.09 0.90 0.0622 0.0312 WRETX 15 55078.5 0.98 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.08 0.92 0.0421 0.0211
WCPOM 15 3317061 0.98 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.99 0.0759 0.0381 WRETM 15 382781 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.94 0.06 0.88 0.0935 0.0474
RWCPOQ 15 2862646 0.93 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.05 0.95 0.1011 0.0507 RWCPOC 15 825688 0.99 0.01 0.06 0.93 0.10 0.88 0.0469 0.0234
RWCPOX 15 781326 0.97 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.04 0.95 0.0646 0.0324 RWCPOM 15 2148549 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.99 0.0892 0.0448
RWRETQ 15 45377.1 0.98 0.05 0.02 0.93 0.00 0.95 0.0366 0.0184 RWRETC 15 42219.5 0.94 0.00 0.06 0.94 0.17 0.83 0.0477 0.0239
RWRETX 15 37196.9 0.96 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.04 0.96 0.0501 0.0251 RWRETM 15 257350 0.73 0.06 0.00 0.94 0.10 0.84 0.1345 0.0686
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics
Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U LATMWIT1 15 0.0604 0.00 0.01 0.80 0.19 0.21 0.78 1.2411 0.5035
LATMWIT2 15 0.00168 0.52 0.02 0.16 0.83 0.01 0.97 0.7164 0.3811 LATMWIT3 15 0.0459 0.25 0.04 0.56 0.40 0.07 0.89 1.0412 0.5003
LATMRET1 15 0.000637 0.69 0.14 0.01 0.86 0.10 0.76 0.6441 0.3792 LATMRET2 15 0.00201 0.50 0.26 0.34 0.40 0.05 0.69 1.3672 0.5418
LATMRET3 15 0.00140 0.89 0.04 0.37 0.59 0.18 0.78 0.5574 0.2528 YWIT1 15 0.00677 0.59 0.01 0.11 0.88 0.02 0.98 0.8388 0.4396
YWIT2 15 0.0175 0.63 0.00 0.11 0.89 0.60 0.40 0.8202 0.6016 YWIT3 15 0.0103 0.78 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.14 0.86 0.6333 0.3581
YRET1 15 0.00309 0.59 0.11 0.25 0.64 0.01 0.88 0.9099 0.4087 YRET2 15 0.00380 0.48 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.20 0.80 0.8531 0.5237
YRET3 15 0.00839 0.68 0.04 0.34 0.61 0.06 0.90 0.9038 0.3983 QCPO1 15 0.0789 -0.25 0.01 0.80 0.19 0.11 0.87 1.2536 0.5277
QCPO2 15 0.0216 0.52 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.69 0.31 0.8810 0.6714 QCPO3 15 0.0382 0.47 0.02 0.60 0.38 0.17 0.81 1.0052 0.4471
QCPO 15 0.0265 0.22 0.00 0.60 0.40 0.08 0.92 1.0217 0.4669 QRET1 15 0.00366 0.70 0.03 0.33 0.64 0.06 0.91 0.7249 0.3276
QRET2 15 0.00536 0.53 0.08 0.00 0.92 0.35 0.58 0.8508 0.5065 QRET3 15 0.00496 0.69 0.01 0.14 0.85 0.00 0.99 0.7005 0.3463
QRET 15 0.00233 0.75 0.05 0.21 0.74 0.02 0.93 0.6257 0.2909 XCPO 15 0.0941 0.62 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.43 0.57 0.6943 0.4232
XRET 15 0.00265 0.79 0.07 0.15 0.78 0.01 0.92 0.5869 0.2756 DCPOMG 15 0.2032 0.82 0.02 0.17 0.81 0.48 0.49 0.6229 0.4001
DRETIB 15 0.0133 0.66 0.03 0.24 0.74 0.77 0.20 0.7058 0.4068 HCPOR 15 0.0536 0.66 0.03 0.03 0.95 0.37 0.60 0.7419 0.4836
HRETR 15 0.0480 0.49 0.04 0.02 0.95 0.20 0.77 0.8728 0.5492 PCPOR 15 0.0830 0.44 0.05 0.00 0.95 0.38 0.57 0.8943 0.6271
PRETR 15 0.0518 0.36 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.40 0.57 0.8929 0.6285 DDCPO 15 0.0905 0.78 0.03 0.06 0.91 0.33 0.64 0.6385 0.3943
DDRET 15 0.00401 0.95 0.03 0.16 0.81 0.30 0.67 0.3021 0.1599 WCPOPR 15 0.0569 0.34 0.01 0.05 0.94 0.21 0.78 0.9467 0.5865
WRETPR 15 0.0452 0.10 0.01 0.08 0.91 0.33 0.66 0.9913 0.6857 CPOMIND 15 0.0721 0.86 0.03 0.03 0.93 0.01 0.96 0.4402 0.2289
CPOMBLD 15 0.00547 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.97 0.61 0.36 0.5995 0.3518 CPOMCHN 15 0.0454 0.56 0.00 0.21 0.79 0.85 0.15 0.7952 0.5360
CPOCIND 15 0.1068 0.83 0.10 0.19 0.70 0.48 0.42 0.5326 0.3315 CPOCBLD 15 0.2020 0.67 0.00 0.17 0.83 0.67 0.32 0.7582 0.5013
CPOCCHN 15 0.0321 0.11 0.00 0.12 0.88 0.25 0.75 0.8419 0.4958 RETCUSA 15 0.00536 0.44 0.02 0.03 0.95 0.19 0.79 0.9131 0.5713
RETMUSA 15 0.00774 0.70 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.20 0.78 0.7005 0.4186
The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics
Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U RETCJPG 15 0.00126 -0.27 0.05 0.43 0.52 0.08 0.87 1.0050 0.6150
RETMJPG 15 0.00303 0.41 0.02 0.02 0.96 0.58 0.39 0.8718 0.6481 RETCCHN 15 0.0116 0.45 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.18 0.82 0.6598 0.3649
RETMCHN 15 0.0829 0.33 0.00 0.01 0.98 0.35 0.65 0.8309 0.5246 WCPOS 15 0.0161 0.54 0.02 0.04 0.94 0.53 0.45 0.8210 0.5860
WRETS 15 0.0254 0.21 0.02 0.35 0.63 0.00 0.98 1.1739 0.6151 WCPOQ 15 0.00797 -0.33 0.00 0.58 0.42 0.02 0.97 0.8807 0.4499
WRETQ 15 0.000955 0.50 0.02 0.05 0.92 0.11 0.87 0.5540 0.3034 WCPOC 15 0.00114 0.64 0.00 0.18 0.82 0.00 1.00 0.3991 0.2002
WRETC 15 0.000695 0.64 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.30 0.70 0.4696 0.2533 WCPOX 15 0.00863 0.13 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.30 0.70 0.7258 0.4053
WRETX 15 0.00179 0.33 0.00 0.19 0.80 0.04 0.96 0.7456 0.3869 WCPOM 15 0.00827 0.40 0.01 0.16 0.84 0.04 0.95 0.6928 0.3716
WRETM 15 0.00816 0.51 0.07 0.02 0.91 0.46 0.46 0.8240 0.5895 RWCPOQ 15 0.0117 0.31 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.86 0.14 0.8320 0.5370
RWCPOC 15 0.00237 0.09 0.04 0.00 0.96 0.79 0.17 0.6127 0.3182 RWCPOX 15 0.00487 0.57 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.44 0.56 0.6610 0.3920
RWCPOM 15 0.0128 0.07 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.85 0.15 0.7840 0.4973 RWRETQ 15 0.00122 0.38 0.07 0.12 0.82 0.07 0.86 0.6247 0.3527
RWRETC 15 0.00222 0.53 0.01 0.03 0.97 0.15 0.84 0.7207 0.3959 RWRETX 15 0.00264 0.37 0.00 0.01 0.98 0.31 0.68 0.7635 0.4618
RWRETM 15 0.0158 0.38 0.08 0.00 0.92 0.43 0.50 0.9296 0.6852
Lampiran 6. Program Komputer Simulasi Model dengan Skenario Penurunan Suku Bunga sebesar 15 persen
INTRR= 0.85INTRR HPUKR=1.20 HPUKR
UPAHR=1.20UPAHR ERR= 1.40ERR
TCPO= 0.60TCPO RUN;
PROC
SIMNLIN DATA= DATAOK DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL; ENDOGENOUS
LATMWIT1 LATMWIT2 LATMWIT3 LATMRET1 LATMRET2 LATMRET3 YWIT1 YWIT2 YWIT3 YRET1 YRET2 YRET3 QCPO1 QCPO2 QCPO3 QCPO
QRET1 RET2 QRET3 QRET XCPO XRET DCPOMG DRETIB HCPOR HRETR PCPOR PRETR DDCPO DDRET WCPOPR WRETPR CPOMInd CPOMBld CPOMChn CPOCInd
CPOCBld CPOCChn RETCUSA RETMUSA RETCJPG RETMJPG RETCCHN RETMCHN WCPOS WRETS WCPOQ WRETQ WCPOC WRETC WCPOX WRETX WCPOM WRETM
RWCPOQ RWCPOC RWCPOX RWCPOM RWRETQ RWRETC RWRETX RWRETM ;
INSTRUMENTS L3HCPOR L3HRETR L3INTRR HPUKR UPAHR ERR TEK L4HRETR
L4HCPOR HMGDR LTCPO ERIR ERJR GDPINDR GDPBLDR GDPUSR GDPJPGR RWCPOA RWRETA RWPDK RWPDK2 LLATMRET1 LYRET1 LYRET2 LYRET3 LXCPO
LXRET LDCPOMG LDRETIB LHCPOR LHRETR LPCPOR LPRETR LCPOMIND LCPOMBLD LCPOMCHN LCPOCBLD LCPOCIND LCPOCCHN LRETMUSA LRETMJPG
LRETMCHN LRETCUSA LRETCJPG LRETCCHN LWCPOPR LWRETPR LWCPOS LWRETS LRWCPOQ LRWCPOC LRWCPOX LRWCPOM LRWRETQ LRWRETC
LRWRETX LRWRETM ; PARM A10 952.1166 A11 0.132260 A12 -0.04927 A13 -4.50183 A14 -0.43623 A15 -0.00270
A16 91.26334 A20 278.1264 A21 0.006119 A22 -0.00543 A23 -0.08262 A24 -0.01271 A25 -0.00031 A26
19.44779
A30 1013.487 A31 0.138446 A32 -0.05888 A33 -6.29312 A34 -0.25498 A35 -0.00296 A36 101.7707
A100 1048.815 A101 14.94136 A102 -0.80807 A103 -0.09098 A104 -0.00026 A105 33.04755 A106 0.239932
A200 174.8572 A201 0.000587 A202 -0.00408 A203 0.331123 A204 -0.02833 A205 -0.00003 A206 3.015313
A300 127.8814 A301 0.012569 A302 -0.00147 A303 -0.02329 A304 -0.00008 A305 1.992202 B10 2.954708 B11 -0.00110 B12-0.00101 B13 -3.15E-6 B14 0.177912
B20 1.491859 B21 -0.00035 B22 -1.99E-7 B23 0.711378 B30 7.648976 B31 0.000045 B32 -0.00049 B33 -0.00114 B34 -5.75E-6 B35 -0.00820
B100 0.856935 B101 8.313E-6 B102 -0.00014 B103 -0.00021 B104 -3.71E-7 B105 0.024413 B200 0.978684 B201 2.931E-6 B202 -0.00122 B203 -0.00018 B204 -5.54E-7 B205 0.009179
B206 0.536320 B300 3.541727 B301 3.59E-6 B302 -0.01830 B303 -0.00045 B304 -1.39E-6 B305 0.074873
B306 0.321849 C10 -332.776 C11 0.260409 C12 -0.24881 C13 0.281501 C14 0.059993 C15 0.792660
C100 -69.3809 C101 0.888893 C102 -0.67660 C103 0.034236 C104 0.013011 C105 0.025661
D10 2546.041 D11 -0.40480 D12 0.208530 D13 -14.5784 D14 0.474997 D100 13.16969 D101 -0.00113 D102 -0.08082 D103 1.112203
E10 -1260.64 E11 3.607153 E12 0.132490 E13 0.316096 E14 0.381388 E100 -230.929 E101 3.490522 E102 0.362422 E103 0.154859
F11 0.567677 F12 -0.6639 F13 0.306649 F100 -94.5212 F101 17.848 F102 0.073680
G10 589.7224 G11 -0.65418 G12 -28.7171 G13 88.96120 G14 0.727161 G20 67.81701 G21 -0.06322 G22 1.042980
G30 380.4841 G31 -0.40889 G32 1.053616 G100 788.0840 G101 -0.93243 G102 19.50612
G200 121.3821 G201 -0.16343 G202 -0.18626 G203 0.891218 G300 249.1116 G301 -2.43544 G302 0.994459
H10 -309.002 H11 1.079924 H12 0.208026 H13 0.049672 H20 -448.286 H21 0.322396 H22 0.014986 H23 0.839838
H30 -398.794 H31 0.811040 H32 0.484747 H33 0.108682 H100 -178.938 H101 0.637217 H102 0.004482 H103 0.351660
H200 -95.3444 H201 0.630475 H202 0.498916 H300 -1553.53 H301 0.124196 H302 0.429109 H303 1.136417 H304 0.743635
I11 218.0297 I12 0.573470 J10 869.3855 J11 0.142682 J12 -0.06384 J13 0.336371
I101 10.51687 I102 0.842705 J100 -97.0887 J101 1.025798 J102-0.97768 J103 0.982175
K10 -1343.90 K11 0.919510 K12 0.509316 K13 0.979827 L10 -2554.63 L11 -0.01494 L12 0.984209 L13 1.015544
M10 271.5729 M11 0.347535 M12 0.584294
N10 500.2671 N11 -0.30911 N12 1.055851 K100 -3760.20 K101 1.829927 K102 0.485668 K103 0.518367
L100 -3103.69 L101 -6.11454 L102 1.602692 L103 0.141775 M100 364.2089 M101 3.863745 M102 0.152776 M103 0.690651
N100 1001.396 N101 -1.82183 N102 0.748898;
PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL LATMWIT1= A10 + A11L3HCPOR + A12L3HRETR + A13L3INTRR + A14HPUKR +
A15LUPAHR + A16TEK; LATMWIT2= A20 + A21L3HCPOR+ A22L3HRETR + A23L3INTRR + A24HPUKR +
A25LUPAHR + A26TEK; LATMWIT3= A30 + A31L3HCPOR + A32L3HRETR + A33L3INTRR + A34HPUKR +
A35LUPAHR + A36TEK; LATMRET1= A100 + A101L4HRETRL4HCPOR + A102L4INTRR + A103HPUKR +
A104UPAHR-LUPAHR + A105TEK + A106LLATMRET1; LATMRET2= A200 + A201L4HRETR + A202L4HCPOR + A203L4INTRR +
A204HPUKR + A205LUPAHR + A206TEK; LATMRET3= A300 + A301L4HRETRL4INTRR + A302L3HCPOR + A303HPUKR-
LHPUKR + A304UPAHR-LUPAHR + A305TEK;
YWIT1= B10 + B11LATMWIT1 + B12HPUKR + B13LUPAHR + B14TEK; YWIT2= B20 + B21HPUKR + B22UPAHR + B23LYWIT2;
YWIT3= B30 + B31HCPOR + B32LATMWIT3 + B33HPUKR + B34UPAHR + B35INTRR;
YRET1= B100 + B101LHRETR + B102LATMRET1 + B103HPUKR + B104LUPAHR + B105TEK;
YRET2= B200 + B201HRETR + B202LATMRET2 + B203LHPUKR + B204 LUPAHR + B205TEK + B206LYRET2;
YRET3= B300 + B301HRETR + B302LATMRET3 + B303HPUKR + B304UPAHR + B305TEK + B306LYRET3;
XCPO= C10 + C11QCPO + C12DDCPO + C13LPCPOR + C14LERR + C15LXCPO; XRET= C100 + C101QRET +C102DDRET + C103PRETR + C104ERR +C105LXRET;
DCPOMG= D10 + D11LHCPOR + D12HMGDR + D13INTRR + D14LDCPOMG; DRETIB= D100 + D101HRETR + D102INTRR + D103LDRETIB;
HCPOR= E10 + E11PCPOR + E12ERR + E13DDCPO +E14LHCPOR; HRETR= E100 + E101PRETR + E102ERR + E103LHRETR;
PCPOR= F11WCPOPR + F12TCPO + F13LPCPOR; PRETR= F100+ F101WRETPR + F102LPRETR;
CPOMInd= G10 + G11WCPOPR-LWCPOPR + G12ERIR + G13TEK + G14LCPOMInd; CPOMBld= G20 + G21WCPOPR + G22LCPOMBld;
CPOMChn= G30 + G31WCPOPR + G32LCPOMChn; CPOCInd= H10 + H11CPOMInd + H12GDPINDR + H13LCPOCInd;
CPOCBld= H20 + H21CPOMBld + H22GDPBLDR + H23LCPOCBld; CPOCChn= H30 + H31CPOMCHN + H32GDPCHNR + H33LCPOCChn;
RETMUSA= G100 + G101WRETPR + G102TEK ; RETMJPG= G200 + G201LWRETPR + G202ERJR + G203LRETMJPG;
RETMChn= G300 + G301LWRETPR + G302LRETMChn; RETCUSA= H100 + H101RETMUSA + H102GDPUSR + H103LRETCUSA;
RETCJPG= H200 + H201RETMJPG + H202LRETCJPG; RETCChn= H300 + H301RETMChn + H302GDPCHNR + H303PDKCHN +
H304LRETCChn; WCPOPR= I11WCPOMWCPOX + I12LWCPOPR;
WCPOS= J10 + J11WCPOQ + J12WCPOC + J13LWCPOS; WRETPR= I101WRETMWRETX + I102LWRETPR;
WRETS= J100 + J101WRETQ + J102WRETC + J103LWRETS; RWCPOQ= K10 + K11WCPOPR + K12RWCPOA + K13LRWCPOQ;
RWCPOC= L10 + L11WCPOPR + L12RWPDK + L13LRWCPOC; RWCPOX= M10 + M11RWCPOQ + M12LRWCPOX;
RWCPOM= N10 + N11WCPOPR + N12LRWCPOM; RWRETQ= K100 + K101WRETPR + K102RWRETA + K103LRWRETQ;
RWRETC= L100 + L101WRETPR-LWRETPR + L102RWPDK2 + L103LRWRETC RWRETX= M100 + M101WRETPR-LWRETPR + M102RWRETQ + M103LRWRETX;
RWRETM= N100 + N101WRETPR + N102LRWRETM; QCPO1= LATMWIT1YWIT1;
QCPO2= LATMWIT2YWIT2; QCPO3= LATMWIT3YWIT3;
QCPO = QCPO1 + QCPO2 + QCPO3; QRET1= LATMRET1YRET1;
QRET2= LATMRET2YRET2; QRET3= LATMRET3YRET3;
QRET = QRET1 + QRET2 + QRET3 ; DDCPO= DCPOMG + DCPOL;
DDRET= DRETIB + DRETL; WCPOQ= QCPO + RWCPOQ;
WCPOC= DDCPO + CPOCInd + CPOCBld + CPOCChn + RWCPOC; WCPOX= XCPO + RWCPOX;
WCPOM= MCPO + CPOMInd + CPOMBld + CPOMChn + RWCPOM; WRETQ= QRET +RWRETQ;
WRETC= DDRET + RETCUSA + RETCJPG + RETCChn + RWRETC; WRETX= XRET + RWRETX;
WRETM= MRET + RETMUSA + RETMJPG + RETMChn + RWRETM; RANGE TAHUN 1994 TO 2008;
RUN ;
Lampiran 7. Hasil Simulasi Model Perunuran Suku Bunga sebesar 15 Persen
SIMULASI SKENARIO 1 The SIMNLIN Procedure
Model Summary Model Variables 62
Endogenous 62 Parameters 198
Range Variable TAHUN Equations 62
Number of Statements 62 Program Lag Length 4
SIMULASI SKENARIO 1 The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options
DATA= DATAOK Solution Summary
Variables Solved 62 Simulation Lag Length 4
Solution Range TAHUN First 1994
Last 2008 Solution Method NEWTON
CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 1.3E-15
Maximum Iterations 3 Total Iterations 45
Average Iterations 3 Observations Processed
Read 19 Lagged 4
Solved 15 First 12
Last 26
SIMULASI SKENARIO 1 The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label LATMWIT1 15 15 1099.6 636.0 1142.1 601.9 LATMWIT1
LATMWIT2 15 15 500.2 101.2 496.9 91.8828 LATMWIT2 LATMWIT3 15 15 1394.8 707.4 1408.4 685.6 LATMWIT3
LATMRET1 15 15 2051.6 216.5 2040.2 219.3 LATMRET1 LATMRET2 15 15 187.4 12.4472 188.8 10.2581 LATMRET2
LATMRET3 15 15 165.0 17.1718 164.1 15.2817 LATMRET3 YWIT1 15 15 2.7071 0.3157 2.6828 0.2512 YWIT1
YWIT2 15 15 3.4482 0.6241 3.4841 0.5085 YWIT2 YWIT3 15 15 3.4163 0.5035 3.4491 0.3257 YWIT3
YRET1 15 15 0.7062 0.1193 0.7156 0.1050 YRET1 YRET2 15 15 1.1004 0.1228 1.1021 0.1066 YRET2
YRET3 15 15 1.3415 0.1667 1.3533 0.1769 YRET3 QCPO1 15 15 3080.6 2051.5 3167.7 1928.8
QCPO2 15 15 1681.6 253.9 1701.5 246.4 QCPO3 15 15 4699.6 2587.6 4781.5 2327.9
QCPO 15 15 9461.9 4807.7 9650.7 4440.7 QRET1 15 15 1469.2 402.4 1479.1 376.8
QRET2 15 15 207.2 35.5315 208.5 27.4523 QRET3 15 15 222.1 42.0455 223.3 44.5684
QRET 15 15 1898.5 472.9 1910.8 443.7 XCPO 15 15 5981.5 4240.0 6005.5 3952.6 XCPO
XRET 15 15 1694.1 385.4 1706.7 339.9 XRET DCPOMG 15 15 2998.1 945.4 3017.7 626.0 DCPOMG
DRETIB 15 15 113.8 56.1224 115.5 53.4575 DRETIB HCPOR 15 15 4683.8 1200.9 4586.3 742.0
HRETR 15 15 9289.6 2104.4 8941.2 1339.8 PCPOR 15 15 490.8 169.7 456.2 87.9851
PRETR 15 15 1287.8 549.7 1219.5 376.5 DDCPO 15 15 3795.6 1059.1 3815.1 882.9
DDRET 15 15 193.3 105.1 195.0 102.5 WCPOPR 15 15 558.5 160.1 563.0 89.1869
WRETPR 15 15 70.8772 26.8778 68.6642 19.2223 CPOMIND 15 15 2837.5 1369.5 2784.0 1358.6 CPOMIND
CPOMBLD 15 15 994.4 428.7 986.2 437.7 CPOMBLD CPOMCHN 15 15 2944.9 1630.8 2930.0 1583.7 CPOMCHN
CPOCIND 15 15 2994.7 1635.5 2947.7 1533.6 CPOCIND CPOCBLD 15 15 922.1 634.5 929.1 612.2 CPOCBLD
CPOCCHN 15 15 2835.2 1636.7 2814.8 1606.2 CPOCCHN RETCUSA 15 15 1071.4 71.4479 1062.9 67.1285 RETCUSA
RETMUSA 15 15 1103.5 104.0 1094.7 85.9992 RETMUSA RETCJPG 15 15 769.1 78.1285 763.6 80.1537 RETCJPG
SIMULASI SKENARIO 1 The SIMNLIN Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1994 To 2008
Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted
Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Label RETMJPG 15 15 773.3 74.3836 767.3 66.6478 RETMJPG
RETCCHN 15 15 1505.9 810.5 1502.9 788.6 RETCCHN RETMCHN 15 15 922.0 523.1 907.5 488.4 RETMCHN
WCPOS 15 15 3987.2 995.5 3967.6 975.5 WCPOS WRETS 15 15 2216.6 404.2 2187.7 473.5 WRETS
WCPOQ 15 15 25555.8 9313.8 25768.8 8671.4 WRETQ 15 15 7636.3 1458.0 7601.8 1446.1
WCPOC 15 15 29175.6 9218.3 29237.1 9247.6 WRETC 15 15 7809.0 1533.4 7801.4 1494.5
WCPOX 15 15 19168.5 7974.1 19148.6 7540.5 WRETX 15 15 5479.7 1090.8 5476.2 1019.5
WCPOM 15 15 22335.6 9078.4 22157.9 9015.8 WRETM 15 15 6491.0 1341.1 6339.6 1183.2
RWCPOQ 15 15 16093.9 4737.2 16118.1 4351.2 RWCPOQ RWCPOC 15 15 18628.1 5564.6 18730.3 5261.7 RWCPOC
RWCPOX 15 15 13186.9 3809.4 13143.1 3620.7 RWCPOX RWCPOM 15 15 15214.0 6417.7 15112.9 6312.6 RWCPOM
RWRETQ 15 15 5737.8 1015.9 5691.1 1024.1 RWRETQ RWRETC 15 15 4269.2 600.4 4277.0 513.1 RWRETC
RWRETX 15 15 3785.6 730.7 3769.5 692.3 RWRETX RWRETM 15 15 3703.3 746.3 3581.2 581.1 RWRETM
Lampiran 8. Hasil Simulasi Historis Dampak Berbagai Alternatif Kebijakan Ekonomi.
Peubah Nilai Dasar
Perubahan Simulasi 1
2 3
4 5
6 Luas Areal Tanaman
Menghasilkan
000 ha
Kelapa Sawit PR 1108.5
3.03 -9.74
-17.64 -0.68
0.11 -6.71
Kelapa Sawit PBN 496.2
0.14 -0.64
-4.53 -0.81
0.02 -0.50
Kelapa Sawit PBS 1362.1
3.40 -4.65
-15.74 -1.20
0.09 -1.25
Karet PR 2034
0.30 -1.11
0.00 0.05
0.00 -0.80
Karet PBN 191.5
-1.41 -3.71
-1.20 -0.42
-0.05 -5.07
Karet PBS 163.5
0.37 0.00
-0.06 0.06
0.00 0.37
Produktivitas tonha
Kelapa Sawit PR 2.7198
-1.36 -4.82
-0.52 0.30
-0.05 -6.18
Kelapa Sawit PBN 3.4841
0.00 -2.49
-0.42 0.00
0.00 -2.49
Kelapa Sawit PBS 3.4337
0.45 -7.31
-9.12 0.82
-0.01 -6.86
Karet PR 0.7165
-0.13 -6.81
-3.77 -0.03
0.00 -6.94
Karet PBN 1.0988
0.30 -3.31
-3.42 0.46
0.01 -3.01
Karet PBS 1.3644
-0.81 -8.24
-7.40 0.23
0.01 -9.05
Produksi 000 ton
Kelapa Sawit PR 3108.9
1.89 -13.38
-17.54 -0.30
0.05 -11.50
Kelapa Sawit PBN 1699
0.15 -3.15
-5.04 -0.77
0.01 -3.01
Kelapa Sawit PBS 4605.2
3.83 -11.58
-23.76 -0.30
0.08 -8.03
Kelapa Sawit Indonesia 9413.1
2.52 -10.65
-18.32 -0.38
0.06 -8.27
Karet PR 1476.5
0.18 -7.68
-3.72 0.04
0.00 -7.52
Karet PBN 210.7
-1.04 -6.83
-4.56 0.05
-0.05 -7.83
Karet PBS 224.3
-0.45 -8.20
-7.36 0.27
0.00 -8.69
Karet Indonesia 1911.5
-0.04 -7.64
-4.24 0.07
0.00 -7.70
Ekspor 000 ton
XCPO 5958.6
0.79 -4.36
-7.50 4.41
0.05 -3.63
XRET 1707.6
-0.05 -7.60
-4.21 3.08
0.00 -7.67
Permintaan Industri 000 ton
Permintaan Industri MG 2958.1
2.01 -0.08
-0.16 -5.83
-0.13 1.93
Permintaan Industri Ban 115.1
0.35 0.00
0.00 -1.39
0.00 0.35
Harga Domestik Rpkg
CPO 4569.2
0.37 0.15
0.26 9.88
0.21 0.52
Karet Alam 8941.1
0.00 0.21
0.11 15.63
0.00 0.21
Harga Ekspor USDton
CPO 456.7
-0.11 0.46
0.83 -0.46
0.68 0.35
Karet Alam 1219.4
0.01 0.45
0.25 -0.17
0.00 0.45
Permintaan Domestik 000 ton
DDCPO 3755.6
1.58 -0.07
-0.13 -4.60
-0.10 1.52
DDRET 194.6
0.21 0.00
0.00 -0.82
0.00 0.21
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Peubah Nilai
Dasar Perubahan Simulasi
1 2
3 4
5 6
Harga Dunia USDton
CPO 563.9 -0.16
0.64 1.17
-0.67 -0.02 0.50
Karet Alam 68.6625
0.00 0.44
0.24 -0.17
0.00 0.45
Blok Importir CPO 000 ton
Impor CPO India 2784
0.00 0.00
-0.01 0.00
0.00 0.00
Impor CPO Belanda 986.2
0.00 -0.02
-0.04 0.02
0.00 -0.02
Impor CPO China 2929.6
0.01 -0.05
-0.09 0.05
0.00 -0.04
Konsumsi CPO India 2947.7
0.00 0.00
-0.01 0.00
0.00 0.00
Konsumsi CPO Belanda 929.1
0.00 -0.01
-0.01 0.01
0.00 -0.01
Konsumsi CPO China 2814.5
0.01 -0.04
-0.07 0.05
0.00 -0.03
Blok Importir Karet Alam 000 ton
Impor Karet Alam Jepang 1062.9
0.00 -0.02
-0.01 0.01
0.00 -0.02
Impor Karet Alam USA 1094.7
0.00 -0.03
-0.02 0.01
0.00 -0.03
Impor Karet Alam China 763.6
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
Konsumsi Karet Alam Jepang 767.3
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
Konsumsi Karet Alam USA 1502.9
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
Konsumsi Karet Alam China 907.5
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
Blok Dunia CPO 000 ton
Stok CPO 3937.6
0.76 -3.61
-6.22 0.13
0.03 -2.90
Stok Karet Alam 2188.8 -0.05
-6.81 -3.77
0.12 0.00
-6.88 Produksi CPO
25532 0.93
-3.91 -6.73
-0.15 0.02
-3.04 Produksi Karet Alam
7602.6 -0.01 -1.92
-1.06 0.01
0.00 -1.93
Konsumsi CPO 29177.2
0.21 -0.01
-0.03 -0.59 -0.01
0.19 Konsumsi Karet Alam
7801 0.01
0.00 0.00
-0.02 0.00
0.00 Ekspor CPO
19102 0.24
-1.35 -2.33
1.37 0.02
-1.13 Ekspor Karet Alam
5477.1 -0.02 -2.37
-1.31 0.96
0.00 -2.39
Impor CPO 22157.2
0.00 -0.01
-0.02 0.01
0.00 -0.01
Impor Karet Alam 6339.6
0.00 -0.01
-0.01 0.00
0.00 -0.01
Blok Sisa Dunia CPO 000 ton
Produksi 16118.9
0.00 0.02
0.04 -0.02
0.00 0.02
Konsumsi 18730.3
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
Ekspor 13143.4
0.00 0.01
0.02 -0.01
0.00 0.01
Impor 15112.6
0.00 -0.01
-0.01 0.01
0.00 -0.01
Blok Sisa Dunia Karet Alam 000 ton
Produksi 5691.1
0.00 0.01
0.01 -0.01
0.00 0.01
Konsumsi 4277
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
Ekspor 3769.5
0.00 0.01
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.01
Impor 3581.2
0.00 -0.02
-0.01 0.01
0.00 -0.02
ABSTRACT LISTON SIRINGORINGO. The Impact of Economic Policy on Palm Oil and
Rubber Industries in Indonesia NUNUNG KUSNADI
as Chairman and NUNUNG NURYARTONO as Member of the Advisory Committee
During the period 1968-2008 oil palm plantations area in Indonesia had increased with the growth rate higher than rubber plantations area, that had been
11 percent compare to one percent per year. It is assumed that economic policy has significant impact for the development Indonesian palm oil and rubber
industries. The general aim of the research is to analyze the impact of various economic policies on palm oil and rubber industries. This study was conducted by
formulating dynamic simultaneous equations model of palm oil and rubber industries with consisting of 44 behavioral and 18 identity equations. The Two
Stage Least Squares 2SLS method was used to estimate the parameters of the behavioral equations in the model. The results of research showed that there is
competition in the between oil palm and natural rubber commodities in terms utilization of available natural resources. While sub-block domestic market and
international market do not have a linkage between crude palm oil and natural rubber because they have different market. The historical simulation in the period
of 1994
–2008 showed that: 1 decreasing interest rates gave a positive impact on oil palm and rubber mature area, 2 increasing in farm input prices such as wage
rate and fertilizer prices gave a negative impact on oil palm and natural rubber mature area, 3 exchange rate depreciation gave a positive impact on export
price of palm oil and natural rubber, increases producer surplus and result in largest foreign earning, and 4 decreasing palm oil export tax gave a positive
impact on palm oil export price.
Keywords: economic policy, palm oil, natural rubber, 2SLS method
RINGKASAN
LISTON SIRINGORINGO.
Dampak Kebijakan Ekonomi terhadap Industri Komoditi Kelapa Sawit dan Karet Indonesia
NUNUNG KUSNADI
sebagai Ketua,
dan NUNUNG NURYARTONO sebagai Anggota Komisi Pembimbing.
Subsektor perkebunan memiliki peranan yang sangat penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia, baik dilihat dari devisa yang dihasilkan, pemenuhan
kebutuhan pangan pokok dan untuk kesempatan kerja. Bagi subsektor ini kelapa sawit dan karet merupakan komoditi penting. Komoditi kelapa sawit dan karet
mampu menyumbang sekitar 62 persen dari total devisa yang dihasilkan oleh subsektor perkebunan. Penyerapan tenaga kerja pada usaha pengembangan
komoditi ini mencapai 4.1 juta KK Ditjenbun, 2007.
Selama periode tahun 1968-2008 luas areal perkebunan kelapa sawit Indonesia meningkat dengan pertumbuhan yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan
luas areal perkebunan karet. Secara rata-rata pertumbuhan luas areal kelapa sawit 11 persen per tahun sementara luas areal perkebunan karet hanya tumbuh 1 persen per
tahun. Pada tahun1968 luas areal perkebunan karet mencapai 2.20 juta ha dan luas perkebunan karet hanya 0.11 juta ha namun pada tahun 1999 luas areal perkebunan
kelapa sawit melebihi luas areal perkebunan karet. Pertumbuhan luas areal kelapa sawit yang sangat cepat diduga karena adanya pengalihan komoditi karet atau
komoditi lainnya menjadi komoditi kelapa sawit dan adanya pembukaan lahan baru. Perkembangan luas areal perkebunan kelapa sawit ini tidak terlepas dari adanya
dukungan kebijakan pemerintah.
Prospek pasar dari komoditi kelapa sawit dan karet cukup cerah baik di pasar domestik maupun di pasar internasional. Konsumsi Crude Palm Oil CPO
dan karet alam terus meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Konsumsi CPO pada tahun 2025 diprediksi akan mencapai 44.55 juta ton Susila, 2001 dan komsumsi karet
alam tahun 2020 diprediksikan oleh IRSG mencapai 10.9 juta ton. Untuk menangkap peluang pasar tersebut perlu kebijakan pemerintah untuk mendukung
pengembangan komoditi ini.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: 1 menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perkembangan luas areal, produktivitas, dan konsumsi serta harga
di pasar domestik dari komoditi kelapa sawit dan karet Indonesia, 2 menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perkembangan ekspor Indonesia,
permintaan impor, konsumsi negara importir utama, dan harga di pasar internasional dari komoditi kelapa sawit dan karet, 3 menganalisis dampak
perubahan kebijakan ekonomi terhadap perkembangan industri komoditi kelapa sawit serta kaitannya dengan perkembangan industri komoditi lainnya karet di
Indonesia, dan 4 menganalisis dampak perubahan kebijakan ekonomi terhadap distribusi kesejahteraan produsen, konsumen dan pemerimaan devisa dari industri
komoditi kelapa sawit dan karet.
Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian di atas, penelitian ini dilakukan dengan pendekatan sistem dengan merumuskan model ekonometrika industri kelapa sawit
dan karet berupa persamaan simultan yang terdiri dari 44 persamaan struktural dan 18 persamaan identitas. Identifikasi model dilakukan dengan metode order
condition
sedangkan metoda estimasi yang digunakan kuadrat terkecil dua tahap two stage least squares, 2SLS. Keragaan hasil pendugaan model dievaluasi
dengan kriteria ekonomi dengan idikator tanda dan besaran dari parameter dan kriteria statistik dengan indikator koefisien determinasi R
2
, F hitung, t hitung, dan koefisien Durbin-Watson DW. Dan untuk mengevalusi berbagai alternatif
dampak kebijakan ekonomi dilakukan simulasi historis. 1994-2008 dengan metode solusi Newton.
Hasil estimasi model menunjukkan bahwa pada subblok produksi terdapat persaingan antara komoditi kelapa sawit dan karet dalam menggunakan
sumberdaya lahan yang tersedia. Sedangkan subblok pasar domestik dan pasar internasional tidak memiliki keterkaitan antara komoditi CPO dan karet alam
karena memiliki pasar yang berbeda. Secara umum hasil pendugaan model cukup valid dan mampu menangkap fenomena ekonomi dari industri kelapa sawit dan
karet dan perdagangan di pasar domestik dan pasar internasional. Dengan demikian model yang diperoleh dapat digunakan untuk simulasi model dalam
mencapai tujuan penelitian. Selain itu model dapat digunakan untuk landasan penyusunan kebijakan pemerintah dalam mendukung pengembangan industri
kelapa sawit dan karet.
Dari hasil simulasi historis mengenai dampak kebijakan ekonomi terlihat bahwa pada masing-masing skenario trade off antara surplus produsen dengan
surplus konsumen dan penerimaan devisa. Kebijakan penurunan suku bunga memberikan insentif bagi petani untuk mengembangkan usahanya yaitu berupa
keringanan memperoleh tambahan modal melalui kredit di bank. Dengan penurunan tingkat suku bunga memberikan dampak pada peningkatan luas areal
tanaman menghasilkan pada semua bentuk pengusahaan baik perkebunan kelapa sawit dan karet Indonesia, kecuali luas areal tanaman menghasilkan karet
perkebunan besar negara turun. Sejalan dengan peningkatan luas areal tanaman menghasilan total produksi CPO Indonesia juga meningkat tetapi total produksi
karet alam menurun hal ini disebabkan penurunan produktivitas.
Kebijakan peningkatan harga input perkebunan seperti menaikkan upah tenaga kerja dan harga pupuk, berdampak pada penurunan luas areal tanaman
menghasilkan sehingga total produksi juga akan menurun. Penurunan total produksi CPO dan karet alam berimbas pada pasokan bahan baku untuk industri
domestik semakin berkurang akibatnya harga domestik CPO dan karet alam mengalami kenaikan. Dampak selanjutnya dari penurunan produksi CPO dan
karet alam akan menurunkan jumlah ekspor sehingga penerimaan devisa menjadi berkurang.
Depresiasi rupiah berdampak pada peningkatan harga ekspor CPO dan karet alam. Hal ini akan memacu peningkatan ekspor dari CPO dan karet alam.
Sebaliknya pasokan bahan baku untuk industri domestik akan berkurang sebagai akibatnya harga CPO dan karet alam domestik akan meningkat.
Penurunan pajak ekspor CPO akan menyebabkan harga ekspor CPO meningkat. Kondisi ini memacu peningkatan jumlah ekspor CPO. Dengan
peningkatan jumlah yang diekspor, alokasi produksi untuk pasokan untuk industri domestik berkurang sehingga mendorong peningkatan harga domestik CPO.
Kenaikan harga ini merupakan insentif bagi petani kelapa sawit untuk meningkatkan produksinya melalui perluasan areal.