Blok Konsumsi Tenaga Listrik Blok Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik Blok Perekonomian Blok Tenaga Kerja

174 Lampiran 2. Ringkasan Model Subsidi Harga Listrik I. Blok Produksi Tenaga Listrik A. Jumlah Produksi Tenaga Listrik 1. PRODSDR t = a + a 1 QBBM t + a 2 QBTB t + a 3 QGAS t + a 4 PRODSDR t-1 + u 2. QBBM 1t t = b + b 1 PBBM t + b 2 PRODSDR t + b 3 D08 + b 4 QBBM t-1 + u 3. QBTB 2t t = c + c 1 PBTB t + c 2 PRODSDR t + c 3 PBBM t + c 4 QBTB t-1 + u 4. QGAS 3t t = d + d 1 PGAS t + d 2 PRODSDR t + d 3 QBBM t + d 4 QBTB t d + 5 D9799 + u 5. PBBM 4t t = e + e 1 ICP t + e 2 KURS t + e 3 D08 + e 4 PBBM t-1 + u 6. PBTB 5t t = f + f 1 PDBTB t + f 2 KURS t + f 3 PBBM t + f 4 PBTB t-1 + u 7. PGAS 6t t = g + g 1 KURS t + g 2 PBBM t + g 3 D98 + g 4 D09 + g 5 PGAS t-1 + u 8. CBBM 7t t = QBBM t P BBM 9. CBTB t t = QBTB t PBTB 10 CGAS t t = QGAS t PGAS 11 TLBELI t t = h + h 1 TLJUAL t + h 2 SUSUT t + h 3 D08+ h 4 TLBELI t-1 + u 12 PRODTL 8t t = PRODSDR t + TLBELI t

B. Biaya Operasional Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik

13. BOP t = i + i 1 TLBELI t + i 2 CBBM t + i 3 CBTB t + i 4 CGAS t + i 5 CLAIN t i + 6 D08 + i 7 BOP t-1 + u 14. BPP 9t t = BOP t TLJUAL t

II. Blok Konsumsi Tenaga Listrik

15. CLISRT t = j + j 1 HJTLRT t + j 2 PELRT t + j 3 PDBKPT t + j 4 j D98 + 5 CLISRT t-1 + u 16. CLISIND 10t t = k + k 1 HJTLIND t + k 2 PDBI t + k 3 PELIND t + k 4 k D98 + 5 D09 + k 6 CLISIND t-1 + u 17. CLISOTH 11t t = l + l 1 HJTLOTH t + l 2 PDBL t + l 3 PELOTH t + l 4 l D05 + 5 D08 + u 18. TLJUAL 12t t = CLISRT t + CLISIND t + CLISOTH t 19. SUSUT t = PRODTL t – TLJUAL t – CLISDR III. Blok Subsidi t 175 20. SU BPRT t = m + m 1 PENPEM t + m 2 D08 + m 3 SUBPRT t-1 + u 21. SUBPIND 13t t = n + n 1 PENPEM t + n 2 D08 + n 3 SUBPIND t-1 + u 22. SUBPOTH 14t t = o + o 1 PENPEM t + o 2 D08 + o 3 SUBPOTH t-1 + u 23. SUBRT 15t t = SUBPRT t CLISRT t 24. SUBIND 1000 t = SUBPIND t CLISIND t 25. SUBOTH 1000 t = SUBPOTH t CLISOTH t 26. SUBLSTR 1000 t = SUBRT t + SUBIND t + SUBOTH t

IV. Blok Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik

27. HJTLRT t = 1 + m t BPP t – SUBPRT 28. HJTLIND t t = 1 + m t BPP t – SUBPIND 29. HJTLOTH t t = 1 + m t BPP t – SUBPOTH 30. t t t t t t t t t t CLISOTH CLISIND CLISRT CLISOTH HJTLOTH CLISIND HJTLIND CLISRT HJTLRT + + × + × + × = t AVHJTL

V. Blok Penerimaan dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah

a. Penerimaan Pemerintah

31. PENPJK t = p + p 1 PDB t-1 + p 2 INFLASI t + p 3 D98 + p 4 PENPJK t-1 + u 32. PENPEM 16t t = PENPJK t + PENNPJK

b. Belanja Pemerintah

t 33. BLJLAIN t = q + q 1 PENPEM t + q 2 IHK t + q 3 D09 + q 4 BLJNSUB t-1 + u 34. GOVEXP 17t t = SUBLSTR t + BLJLAIN t

VI. Blok Perekonomian

35. CONLIS t = HJTLRT t CLISRT t + HJTLIND t CLISIND t HJTLOTH + t CLISOTH 36. CONLAIN t t = r + r 1 PDBKPT t + r 2 INFLASI t + r 3 D98 + r 4 r D08 + 5 CONLAIN t-1 + u 37. CONRT 18t t = CONLIS t + CONLAIN 38. INV t t = s + s 1 PDB t + s 2 SKBG t + s 3 D04 + s 4 INV t-1 + u 39. EKSPOR 19t t = t + t 1 KURS t + t 2 D98 + t 3 EKSPOR t-1 + u 20t 40. IMPOR t = u + u 1 INFLASI t + u 2 KURS t + u 3 POP t + u 4 D98 + 176 u 5 IMPOR t-1 + u 41. PDB 21t t = CONRT t + INV t + GOVEXP t + EKS t - IMP 42. RPDB t t = PDB t 100IHK 43. GROWTH t t = RPDB t – RPDB t-1 RPDB t-1 44. PDBKPT 100 t = PDB t POP 45. KURS t t = v + v 1 IHK t + v 2 CADEV t + v 3 D9799 + v 4 KURS t-1 + u 46. IHK 22t t = w + w 1 SKBG t + w 2 UANGBR t + w 3 AVHJTL t + w 4 PBBM t w + 5 KURS t + w 6 D98 + w 7 D02 + w 8 D05 + w 9 IHK t-1 + u 47. INFLASI 23t t = IHK t – IHK t-1 IHK t-1 48. SKBG 100 t = x + x 1 INFLASI t + x 2 D9799 + x 3 SKBG t-1 + u 24t

VII. Blok Tenaga Kerja

49. STK t = y + y 1 RUPH t + y 2 POP t + y 3 DBLJLAIN t + y 4 D04 + y 5 y D09 + 6 STK t-1 + u 50. DTK 25t t = z + z 1 RUPH t + z 2 PDB t + z 3 D9799 + u 51. UNEMPL 26t t = STK t – DTK t 52. RUPH t = aa + aa 1 STK t-1 + aa 2 DDTK t + aa 3 D98 + aa 4 RUPH t-1 + u 27t

VIII. Blok Kemiskinan