174
Lampiran 2. Ringkasan Model Subsidi Harga Listrik I.
Blok Produksi Tenaga Listrik A. Jumlah Produksi Tenaga Listrik
1. PRODSDR
t
= a + a
1
QBBM
t
+ a
2
QBTB
t
+ a
3
QGAS
t
+ a
4
PRODSDR
t-1
+ u 2. QBBM
1t t
= b + b
1
PBBM
t
+ b
2
PRODSDR
t
+ b
3
D08 + b
4
QBBM
t-1
+ u 3. QBTB
2t t
= c + c
1
PBTB
t
+ c
2
PRODSDR
t
+ c
3
PBBM
t
+ c
4
QBTB
t-1
+ u 4. QGAS
3t t
= d + d
1
PGAS
t
+ d
2
PRODSDR
t
+ d
3
QBBM
t
+ d
4
QBTB
t
d +
5
D9799 + u 5. PBBM
4t t
= e + e
1
ICP
t
+ e
2
KURS
t
+ e
3
D08 + e
4
PBBM
t-1
+ u 6. PBTB
5t t
= f + f
1
PDBTB
t
+ f
2
KURS
t
+ f
3
PBBM
t
+ f
4
PBTB
t-1
+ u 7. PGAS
6t t
= g + g
1
KURS
t
+ g
2
PBBM
t
+ g
3
D98 + g
4
D09 + g
5
PGAS
t-1
+ u 8. CBBM
7t t
= QBBM
t
P BBM 9. CBTB
t t
= QBTB
t
PBTB 10 CGAS
t t
= QGAS
t
PGAS 11 TLBELI
t t
= h + h
1
TLJUAL
t
+ h
2
SUSUT
t
+ h
3
D08+ h
4
TLBELI
t-1
+ u 12
PRODTL
8t t
= PRODSDR
t
+ TLBELI
t
B. Biaya Operasional Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik
13. BOP
t
= i + i
1
TLBELI
t
+ i
2
CBBM
t
+ i
3
CBTB
t
+ i
4
CGAS
t
+ i
5
CLAIN
t
i +
6
D08 + i
7
BOP
t-1
+ u 14.
BPP
9t t
= BOP
t
TLJUAL
t
II. Blok Konsumsi Tenaga Listrik
15. CLISRT
t
= j + j
1
HJTLRT
t
+ j
2
PELRT
t
+ j
3
PDBKPT
t
+ j
4
j D98 +
5
CLISRT
t-1
+ u 16.
CLISIND
10t t
= k + k
1
HJTLIND
t
+ k
2
PDBI
t
+ k
3
PELIND
t
+ k
4
k D98 +
5
D09 + k
6
CLISIND
t-1
+ u 17.
CLISOTH
11t t
= l + l
1
HJTLOTH
t
+ l
2
PDBL
t
+ l
3
PELOTH
t
+ l
4
l D05 +
5
D08 + u 18.
TLJUAL
12t t
= CLISRT
t
+ CLISIND
t
+ CLISOTH
t
19. SUSUT
t
= PRODTL
t
– TLJUAL
t
– CLISDR III.
Blok Subsidi
t
175
20. SU BPRT
t
= m + m
1
PENPEM
t
+ m
2
D08 + m
3
SUBPRT
t-1
+ u 21. SUBPIND
13t t
= n + n
1
PENPEM
t
+ n
2
D08 + n
3
SUBPIND
t-1
+ u 22. SUBPOTH
14t t
= o + o
1
PENPEM
t
+ o
2
D08 + o
3
SUBPOTH
t-1
+ u 23. SUBRT
15t t
= SUBPRT
t
CLISRT
t
24. SUBIND 1000
t
= SUBPIND
t
CLISIND
t
25. SUBOTH 1000
t
= SUBPOTH
t
CLISOTH
t
26. SUBLSTR 1000
t
= SUBRT
t
+ SUBIND
t
+ SUBOTH
t
IV. Blok Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik
27. HJTLRT
t
= 1 + m
t
BPP
t
– SUBPRT 28.
HJTLIND
t t
= 1 + m
t
BPP
t
– SUBPIND 29.
HJTLOTH
t t
= 1 + m
t
BPP
t
– SUBPOTH 30.
t
t t
t t
t t
t t
t
CLISOTH CLISIND
CLISRT CLISOTH
HJTLOTH CLISIND
HJTLIND CLISRT
HJTLRT +
+ ×
+ ×
+ ×
=
t
AVHJTL
V. Blok Penerimaan dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah
a. Penerimaan Pemerintah
31. PENPJK
t
= p + p
1
PDB
t-1
+ p
2
INFLASI
t
+ p
3
D98 + p
4
PENPJK
t-1
+ u 32.
PENPEM
16t t
= PENPJK
t
+ PENNPJK
b. Belanja Pemerintah
t
33. BLJLAIN
t
= q + q
1
PENPEM
t
+ q
2
IHK
t
+ q
3
D09 + q
4
BLJNSUB
t-1
+ u 34.
GOVEXP
17t t
= SUBLSTR
t
+ BLJLAIN
t
VI. Blok Perekonomian
35. CONLIS
t
= HJTLRT
t
CLISRT
t
+ HJTLIND
t
CLISIND
t
HJTLOTH +
t
CLISOTH 36.
CONLAIN
t t
= r + r
1
PDBKPT
t
+ r
2
INFLASI
t
+ r
3
D98 + r
4
r D08 +
5
CONLAIN
t-1
+ u 37.
CONRT
18t t
= CONLIS
t
+ CONLAIN 38.
INV
t t
= s + s
1
PDB
t
+ s
2
SKBG
t
+ s
3
D04 + s
4
INV
t-1
+ u 39.
EKSPOR
19t t
= t + t
1
KURS
t
+ t
2
D98 + t
3
EKSPOR
t-1
+ u
20t
40. IMPOR
t
= u + u
1
INFLASI
t
+ u
2
KURS
t
+ u
3
POP
t
+ u
4
D98 +
176
u
5
IMPOR
t-1
+ u 41.
PDB
21t t
= CONRT
t
+ INV
t
+ GOVEXP
t
+ EKS
t
- IMP 42.
RPDB
t t
= PDB
t
100IHK 43.
GROWTH
t t
= RPDB
t
– RPDB
t-1
RPDB
t-1
44. PDBKPT
100
t
= PDB
t
POP 45.
KURS
t t
= v + v
1
IHK
t
+ v
2
CADEV
t
+ v
3
D9799 + v
4
KURS
t-1
+ u 46.
IHK
22t t
= w + w
1
SKBG
t
+ w
2
UANGBR
t
+ w
3
AVHJTL
t
+ w
4
PBBM
t
w +
5
KURS
t
+ w
6
D98 + w
7
D02 + w
8
D05 + w
9
IHK
t-1
+ u 47.
INFLASI
23t t
= IHK
t
– IHK
t-1
IHK
t-1
48. SKBG
100
t
= x + x
1
INFLASI
t
+ x
2
D9799 + x
3
SKBG
t-1
+ u
24t
VII. Blok Tenaga Kerja
49. STK
t
= y + y
1
RUPH
t
+ y
2
POP
t
+ y
3
DBLJLAIN
t
+ y
4
D04 + y
5
y D09 +
6
STK
t-1
+ u 50.
DTK
25t t
= z + z
1
RUPH
t
+ z
2
PDB
t
+ z
3
D9799 + u 51.
UNEMPL
26t t
= STK
t
– DTK
t
52. RUPH
t
= aa + aa
1
STK
t-1
+ aa
2
DDTK
t
+ aa
3
D98 + aa
4
RUPH
t-1
+ u
27t
VIII. Blok Kemiskinan