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Data Dasar Model Penawaran dan Permintaan Minyak Sawit Indonesia Tahun LAKSMRS LAKSMNS LAKSMSS LAKSMRK LAKSMNK LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSNS YMSSS YMSRK YMSNK YMSSK 1984 2.20 213.95 77.63 0.02 0.15 0.00 1.82 3.80 4.24 0.39 2.43 0.00 1985 25.63 230.11 84.29 1.47 1.00 0.00 1.57 3.73 3.95 0.74 0.76 0.00 1986 36.70 227.08 83.76 4.47 13.05 0.00 1.34 3.95 4.50 0.52 1.13 0.00 1987 41.23 255.49 96.37 4.71 15.59 0.00 3.70 3.73 3.56 2.03 2.07 0.00 1988 87.98 268.09 127.23 4.99 18.71 0.00 2.86 3.99 3.50 2.26 2.12 0.00 1989 61.96 277.78 143.62 9.22 20.93 1.01 2.39 4.04 4.10 2.19 2.66 2.60 1990 128.57 287.26 202.81 13.46 23.15 1.01 2.58 4.08 3.85 2.04 2.67 2.65 1991 154.22 312.54 228.11 18.44 25.08 1.41 2.23 4.05 3.82 1.92 2.72 0.93 1992 166.25 314.25 287.36 23.83 25.68 2.43 3.67 4.40 3.67 2.21 3.13 4.86 1993 188.20 311.24 328.80 27.40 26.10 5.02 2.66 4.43 4.10 1.73 2.39 2.62 1994 240.19 312.89 384.72 27.04 27.08 7.77 3.05 4.58 4.08 2.05 3.51 1.94 1995 285.75 330.44 464.29 55.82 28.81 23.35 2.90 4.45 3.88 1.91 3.43 2.15 1996 326.73 339.02 549.00 76.09 32.05 37.28 2.78 4.56 3.53 1.86 3.43 2.38 1997 351.92 348.85 603.24 103.90 31.27 57.88 2.85 4.69 3.52 1.88 3.68 2.20 1998 391.76 351.46 652.54 110.18 44.23 60.77 2.70 4.62 3.47 1.79 3.69 2.15 1999 538.68 362.56 791.84 144.23 32.36 126.60 2.27 4.69 2.99 1.56 3.20 1.53 2000 604.70 378.16 973.77 150.23 34.30 205.45 2.59 4.73 3.33 1.99 3.88 1.50 2001 878.49 417.63 1127.22 139.59 40.49 211.77 2.72 3.23 3.03 2.05 2.46 2.45 2002 1043.71 437.28 1211.55 159.48 43.51 251.70 2.85 3.24 3.13 2.01 2.40 2.54 2003 1039.64 445.38 1286.68 193.25 47.54 266.04 2.86 3.41 3.25 2.22 2.37 3.15 2004 1255.96 476.74 1463.46 243.03 50.87 293.48 2.60 3.66 3.63 2.01 2.80 3.32 2005 1373.45 509.32 1645.11 246.55 60.92 377.12 2.77 3.73 3.88 2.37 3.05 3.40 2006 1498.02 526.78 1777.97 284.97 65.89 615.56 3.25 3.76 3.85 2.62 3.10 3.44 2007 1603.16 423.56 1646.76 287.39 51.45 641.78 3.35 4.17 4.04 2.54 3.86 3.39 197 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan Tahun QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL QMSTL QMSI HRMSD HRKD HRF UPRBUN INF SBR HRXMSI HRXMSM CURAH 1984 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 1147.19 2727.94 4824.00 549.99 8167.32 8.80 10.20 855.15 1214.79 2,096.56 1985 1.69 1.73 5.93 9.35 1243.43 1748.49 3894.45 603.83 8731.93 4.30 14.70 619.30 828.96 1,894.08 1986 1.97 1.47 7.80 11.24 1350.73 1617.72 4815.95 620.29 8823.04 8.80 7.20 315.79 443.14 2,343.66 1987 3.02 2.54 9.26 14.82 1506.06 1966.22 6715.84 613.02 8332.59 8.90 9.10 419.51 439.36 2,138.36 1988 2.89 4.72 9.73 17.34 1833.59 2294.38 7422.41 714.37 8148.00 5.50 12.50 570.76 523.94 2,637.53 1989 15.14 6.42 5.75 27.31 1964.95 2211.33 5987.38 770.02 8367.52 6.00 13.00 451.45 446.42 2,729.65 1990 18.27 12.18 5.79 36.24 2412.61 1674.10 5179.39 860.86 9011.59 9.50 8.03 334.74 341.66 2,296.74 1991 34.53 27.09 10.86 72.48 2657.60 2189.59 4881.39 837.00 9183.57 9.50 13.82 362.88 380.00 1,717.49 1992 36.47 26.53 11.20 74.21 3266.25 2266.63 4887.95 856.21 9567.79 4.90 14.10 436.92 425.83 1,916.71 1993 34.14 27.69 9.50 71.33 3421.45 1969.88 4651.01 808.96 9642.18 9.80 4.20 402.91 403.92 2,115.94 1994 52.51 44.79 11.70 109.00 4008.06 2584.35 6200.40 967.82 10177.84 9.20 3.30 511.15 536.84 1,586.69 1995 66.01 44.47 14.32 124.79 4479.67 3047.36 8220.71 1020.57 10721.94 8.60 6.40 667.87 715.47 2,605.70 1996 82.21 50.18 32.13 164.51 4898.66 2541.33 6856.56 1082.50 11099.49 6.50 10.77 542.32 623.20 2,352.78 1997 93.26 47.87 34.30 175.44 5380.45 2819.85 5326.40 1267.35 11588.31 11.10 4.90 522.42 571.15 2,507.23 1998 92.32 69.09 38.23 199.64 5640.15 4396.84 6977.83 1115.38 7216.53 77.60 -30.68 532.43 619.09 2,173.88 1999 94.91 42.24 50.39 187.54 6004.90 3257.40 5007.12 1312.15 7654.19 2.00 26.00 349.43 426.42 2,952.74 2000 110.12 49.17 83.23 242.53 7580.50 3217.15 5251.67 1280.00 10000.00 9.40 6.60 265.00 282.41 3,060.59 2001 121.07 69.40 140.54 331.01 8396.47 2880.74 3793.01 1332.75 10662.01 12.60 1.40 250.90 239.18 2,903.16 2002 127.34 85.68 154.23 367.25 9622.35 3434.22 4076.56 1250.01 7428.69 10.00 5.30 304.45 348.38 3,003.89 2003 118.59 119.43 147.50 385.52 10440.83 3221.30 4428.15 1205.55 7261.58 5.10 5.30 343.80 412.19 3,104.62 2004 92.31 126.78 185.02 404.11 12326.42 3299.50 6145.53 1170.93 7290.63 6.40 0.70 380.38 382.25 2,904.70 2005 109.90 148.47 217.81 476.19 14619.83 3045.12 6090.11 1053.06 6712.12 17.11 -6.11 307.72 334.12 2,952.11 2006 172.21 128.60 299.21 600.02 17350.85 2600.40 7483.54 1003.22 6164.68 6.60 5.00 326.49 354.02 2,999.52 2007 260.09 152.72 360.41 773.23 17664.73 3826.53 4572.20 968.17 6057.30 6.41 3.59 523.99 331.72 3,046.93 198 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan Tahun HRMMW NTERI STKMS SMSD DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD HRMGSD QMGS HRMKD UPRIN HRMSW HRMKW 1984 47.84 3404.91 85.25 1130.88 612.80 432.83 1045.63 5087.39 605.00 4652.89 10658.76 1208.15 1914.15 1985 43.20 3642.10 86.77 847.10 642.20 118.13 760.33 4379.09 490.00 3040.16 10669.45 801.73 944.15 1986 22.50 4052.39 255.61 879.40 524.80 98.99 623.79 3706.87 588.00 2759.06 12013.83 403.77 466.61 1987 27.33 4929.32 501.55 1376.54 702.60 172.39 874.99 3918.82 664.00 3264.92 12019.82 519.46 669.39 1988 21.29 4865.87 696.30 1784.49 774.00 314.19 1088.19 4349.24 728.00 3950.03 11766.06 636.28 822.66 1989 25.10 5034.50 507.23 2439.37 948.00 984.14 1932.14 4272.61 847.00 3561.82 11984.62 486.18 718.16 1990 29.26 5125.71 304.76 1930.45 981.60 644.09 1625.69 3648.59 969.00 2307.85 11927.53 382.18 444.12 1991 23.69 5163.48 123.67 1832.54 990.40 718.47 1708.87 3615.84 981.00 3026.60 12082.95 428.63 547.48 1992 22.23 5149.87 375.65 2668.39 1400.00 892.74 2292.74 4088.03 1162.00 3670.82 12466.46 483.55 709.38 1993 19.28 4969.50 236.09 2317.03 1506.02 574.92 2080.94 3650.23 1250.00 3164.86 12486.30 450.59 536.42 1994 17.90 4888.28 290.95 2736.59 1814.46 631.18 2445.64 4093.63 1506.00 2484.95 12545.08 613.38 706.32 1995 19.38 4794.68 483.26 3555.38 2185.54 886.58 3072.12 4352.35 1731.00 3695.08 12966.23 709.68 757.15 1996 22.61 4730.61 863.96 3817.51 2818.46 135.09 2953.55 3986.87 2336.00 3541.92 13534.56 582.94 825.56 1997 19.90 5323.78 108.82 3368.50 2345.20 914.48 3259.68 3611.94 2453.00 3540.65 14222.02 585.71 704.78 1998 12.78 10540.26 514.69 4287.31 2683.46 1089.16 3772.62 4962.34 1389.00 1878.30 9265.48 708.85 695.12 1999 17.85 8436.21 540.73 3222.25 2527.60 153.92 2681.52 4531.28 2575.00 1498.03 11484.56 450.74 761.91 2000 27.68 8238.00 1053.56 4015.56 2520.70 441.30 2962.00 3419.00 2139.00 1663.00 12753.00 310.00 450.00 2001 21.38 9249.75 1669.95 4546.95 1885.65 991.35 2877.00 3145.29 1712.00 1457.14 15570.98 278.13 309.25 2002 22.62 7928.36 1941.09 4968.09 2856.54 170.46 3027.00 4319.78 1793.49 1477.84 14765.39 373.35 403.03 2003 26.06 6915.69 2830.53 5999.53 2994.28 174.72 3169.00 4283.68 4215.91 1421.41 14580.29 414.68 437.14 2004 32.72 7057.63 3152.62 6499.62 3132.03 214.97 3347.00 3971.32 4165.97 1406.16 14771.46 429.39 602.61 2005 43.13 6945.44 3861.47 7407.47 3269.77 276.23 3546.00 3293.39 7643.51 1277.14 13709.96 372.10 544.04 2006 50.28 5931.21 7031.04 10742.04 3407.51 303.49 3711.00 3033.66 4178.02 1158.42 14471.89 408.30 518.49 2007 55.71 5895.69 8716.42 12821.42 3545.26 559.74 4105.00 4350.78 4419.69 1125.19 19906.94 647.79 763.23 199 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan Tahun HRMKDW PXMSI QMSM NTERM XMSI XMSM XMSW XMSRW NTERC INCRC NTERIND INCRIND HRMGSW 1984 1199.87 37.18 3716.00 2.04 127.94 2858.00 4418.94 1433.00 5.18 2562.21 25.65 11539.59 1317.53 1985 915.35 5.00 4133.00 2.29 518.76 3228.00 5345.76 1599.00 6.08 2823.43 27.40 12134.97 894.54 1986 537.31 0.00 4544.00 2.44 566.89 4300.00 5581.89 715.00 6.79 2956.94 26.16 12205.29 494.89 1987 505.83 0.00 4533.00 2.55 551.12 4503.00 6472.12 1418.00 6.98 3137.32 25.64 12495.65 560.35 1988 674.14 0.00 5030.00 2.72 852.84 4761.00 6839.84 1226.00 6.23 3302.69 26.18 14223.17 732.38 1989 600.08 0.00 6057.00 2.93 781.84 5213.00 7507.84 1513.00 5.61 3124.04 30.14 15068.71 580.64 1990 589.09 0.00 6095.00 3.08 1015.58 5949.00 8640.58 1676.00 7.27 3273.93 31.45 15853.19 512.65 1991 574.03 0.00 6141.00 3.13 1167.69 5768.50 13743.19 6807.00 8.15 3641.39 37.40 15673.09 499.43 1992 526.51 0.00 6374.00 2.81 1030.27 5865.00 8375.27 1480.00 8.19 4166.19 39.28 15751.89 555.96 1993 572.18 0.00 7404.00 2.79 1632.01 6405.00 9446.01 1409.00 7.67 4667.99 44.74 16677.49 537.61 1994 715.61 10.30 7220.00 2.72 1631.20 6895.00 10888.20 2362.00 9.50 5021.32 42.85 17500.59 586.66 1995 706.29 23.20 7811.00 2.58 1265.02 6570.00 10285.02 2450.00 8.08 5306.06 41.31 18281.38 785.40 1996 605.99 15.80 8386.00 2.59 1671.96 6643.00 10734.96 2420.00 7.64 5628.72 42.64 18968.87 748.71 1997 606.09 15.20 9069.00 2.88 2967.59 7230.00 12374.59 2177.00 7.59 5943.47 41.73 19348.80 601.80 1998 661.31 40.00 8320.00 3.87 1479.28 7748.00 11134.28 1907.00 7.76 6243.86 42.52 19198.77 750.05 1999 441.43 30.00 10554.00 3.73 3298.99 9235.00 14116.99 1583.00 8.04 6559.76 43.31 20059.59 507.60 2000 338.00 10.00 10842.00 3.80 4110.03 9280.00 15187.03 1797.00 8.28 7086.00 44.94 20463.63 350.00 2001 344.26 3.00 11804.00 3.85 4903.22 10733.00 17652.22 2016.00 8.46 7605.05 46.79 21112.99 309.25 2002 434.62 3.00 11909.00 3.84 6333.71 10886.00 19187.71 1968.00 8.66 9379.33 46.91 21584.40 467.25 2003 518.58 3.00 13355.00 3.89 6386.41 12216.00 20640.41 2038.00 8.75 10396.92 44.29 22940.02 455.93 2004 561.58 3.00 13976.00 3.94 8661.65 12582.00 24033.65 2790.00 8.65 11708.28 42.64 24847.94 443.11 2005 480.56 3.00 14961.00 3.95 10375.79 13439.00 26660.00 2845.21 8.68 13148.37 41.15 25968.02 427.68 2006 511.66 1.50 15881.00 3.84 10471.92 14423.00 30070.00 5175.09 8.60 14676.21 41.25 27992.65 413.44 2007 731.67 10.00 15823.40 3.59 11875.42 13746.80 29878.00 4255.78 8.06 16324.47 36.40 29475.88 401.12 200 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan Tahun NTERP INCRP MMSI MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW MMSRW XMGS HRXMGSI SMGS DMGS HRMGKD INCRI 1984 29.78 16231.45 57.63 17.00 571.20 400.40 3975.63 2929.40 128.00 1254.56 477.00 337.10 6324.86 3059.53 1985 33.11 16677.14 37.18 56.00 662.20 486.20 4889.18 3647.60 0.00 832.13 490.00 330.00 4872.66 3093.61 1986 34.05 16946.83 8.79 193.00 952.20 522.00 4840.79 3164.80 62.00 446.19 526.00 525.60 4173.33 3026.73 1987 35.26 17392.83 165.99 254.00 1153.80 466.00 6255.99 4216.20 54.00 513.40 610.00 769.80 4713.48 3295.08 1988 34.87 18230.26 302.19 398.00 931.40 520.70 6495.19 4342.90 70.00 685.79 658.00 758.00 5509.04 3581.84 1989 38.68 18645.15 412.39 734.00 456.30 538.20 6883.39 4742.50 152.00 536.19 695.00 725.40 5362.48 3958.56 1990 39.50 18436.30 26.18 1133.00 668.10 682.70 7829.18 5319.20 169.00 473.12 800.00 719.60 4655.99 4309.37 1991 40.39 19126.50 37.87 1007.00 212.70 911.80 7845.87 5676.50 106.00 461.50 875.00 1074.80 4385.88 4574.71 1992 40.04 20204.00 308.74 582.00 207.60 922.00 7558.74 5538.40 76.00 516.69 1086.00 1066.00 5710.16 4726.08 1993 42.00 19852.88 151.94 792.00 150.50 1141.30 8505.94 6270.20 166.00 499.46 1084.00 1054.40 4876.44 4948.96 1994 41.71 20220.91 123.64 1456.00 407.80 1230.00 9717.64 6500.20 351.00 548.33 1155.00 1355.20 4998.68 5201.27 1995 39.51 21003.88 49.79 1396.00 863.10 1121.50 9269.79 5839.40 282.00 746.98 1449.00 1349.00 5260.58 5577.77 1996 42.02 21095.51 107.55 1370.00 1253.90 1103.50 10075.55 6240.60 690.00 712.48 1646.00 1645.70 5348.30 5944.67 1997 43.99 21147.37 91.68 1860.00 1465.30 1120.00 12154.68 7617.70 1587.00 566.40 866.00 1649.50 6378.32 6173.23 1998 46.23 21401.05 17.62 1373.00 1672.30 1114.40 10905.62 6728.30 1075.00 722.59 314.00 313.60 4573.07 5469.86 1999 49.58 22001.60 1.65 1347.00 3257.30 1051.80 13131.65 7473.90 1434.00 472.45 1141.00 141.50 4794.80 5880.11 2000 53.65 26592.64 4.35 1764.00 3650.50 1107.10 14659.35 8133.40 1792.00 321.00 347.00 347.00 4095.00 6752.00 2001 61.74 27684.23 0.14 2120.00 3432.70 1325.00 17108.14 10230.30 1054.00 279.10 658.00 658.20 3902.30 7172.87 2002 58.56 27767.32 9.50 2660.00 3460.80 1300.00 19377.00 11946.70 1401.01 438.66 392.48 962.03 4574.87 7023.32 2003 56.27 28971.41 4.01 3353.00 3978.80 1487.40 21794.00 12970.79 1494.41 428.20 2721.50 976.62 4806.55 7093.95 2004 54.24 29930.45 4.32 3851.00 3452.90 1431.60 23952.00 15212.18 1587.80 416.34 2578.17 991.22 4886.03 7612.45 2005 52.53 32000.18 10.81 4320.00 3315.10 1645.70 26156.00 16864.39 1681.19 402.00 5962.32 1005.82 4411.58 7992.05 2006 50.88 34026.36 1.65 5461.70 3198.40 1767.70 29172.00 18742.56 1774.59 388.77 2403.43 1020.41 4100.31 8315.63 2007 49.02 35605.47 1.07 5730.00 3690.00 1711.00 29938.00 18805.93 1867.98 377.35 2551.71 1035.01 3557.41 8881.42 201 Lampiran 2. Rekapitulasi Persamaan dalam Model Penawaran dan Permintaan Minyak Sawit Indonesia Blok Persamaan Notasi Struktural Identitas Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit 1. Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit Perkebunan Rakyat di Sumatera 2. Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit Perkebunan Rakyat di Kalimantan 3. Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit Perkebunan Negara di Sumatera 4. Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit Perkebunan Negara di Kalimantan 5. Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit Perkebunan Swasta di Sumatera 6. Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit Perkebunan Swasta di Kalimantan LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK Struktural Struktural Struktural Struktural Struktural Struktural Minyak Sawit 1. Produktivitas minyak sawit Perkebunan Rakyat di Sumatera 2. Produktivitas minyak sawit Perkebunan Rakyat di Kalimantan 3. Produktivitas minyak sawit Perkebunan Negara di Sumatera 4. Produktivitas minyak sawit Perkebunan Negara di Kalimantan 5. Produktivitas minyak sawit Perkebunan Swasta di Sumatera 6. Produktivitas minyak sawit Perkebunan Swasta di Kalimantan 7. Produksi Minyak Sawit Indonesia 8. Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia 9. Permintaan Minyak Sawit Domestik YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSI XMSI DMSD Struktural Struktural Struktural Struktural Struktural Struktural Identitas Struktural Identitas Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Blok Persamaan Notasi Struktural Identitas Minyak Sawit 10. Permintaan Minyak Sawit oleh Industri Minyak Goreng 11. Permintaan Minyak Sawit oleh Industri Lain 12. Penawaran Minyak Sawit Domestik 13. Harga Minyak Sawit Domestik 14. Harga Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia 15. Ekspor Minyak Sawit Malaysia 16. Ekspor Minyak Sawit Dunia 17. Impor Minyak Sawit Cina 18. Impor Minyak Sawit India 19. Impor Minyak Sawit Pakistan 20. Impor Minyak Sawit Dunia 21. Harga Minyak Sawit Dunia 22. Produksi Minyak Sawit Perkebunan Rakyat di Sumatera 23. Produksi Minyak Sawit Perkebunan Rakyat di Kalimantan 24. Produksi Minyak Sawit Perkebunan Negara di Sumatera 25. Produksi Minyak Sawit Perkebunan Negara di Kalimantan 26. Produksi Minyak Sawit Perkebunan Swasta di Sumatera 27. Produksi Minyak Sawit Perkebunan Swasta di Kalimantan DMSIMG DMSIL SMSD HRMSD HRXMSI XMSM XMSW MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW HRMSW QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK Struktural Struktural Identitas Struktural Struktural Struktural Identitas Struktural Struktural Struktural Identitas Struktural Identitas Identitas Identitas Identitas Identitas Identitas Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Blok Persamaan Notasi Struktural Identitas Minyak Goreng Sawit 1. Produksi Minyak Goreng Sawit Indonesia 2. Ekspor Minyak Goreng Sawit Indonesia 3. Penawaran Minyak Goreng Sawit Domestik 4. Permintaan Minyak Goreng Sawit Domestik 5. Harga Minyak Goreng Sawit Domestik 6. Harga Ekspor Minyak Goreng Sawit Indonesia QMGS XMGS SMGS DMGS HRMGSD HRXMGSI Struktural Struktural Identitas Struktural Struktural Struktural Lampiran 3. Program Estimasi Persamaan dalam Model Penawaran dan Permintaan Minyak Sawit Indonesia PROGRAM ESTIMASI OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA ESTIMASI; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; CREATE VARIABLE PHRF=HRF-LHRFLHRF100; PSBR=SBR-LSBRLSBR100; RHMSF=HRMSDHRF; SHRXMSM=HRXMSM-LHRXMSM; PHRMMW=HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100; PHRXMSI=HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100; SHRMKW=HRMKW-LHRMKW; SHRMSW=HRMSW-LHRMSW; PXMGS=XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100; EXDMGS=DMGS-SMGS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; Lampiran 3. Lanjutan XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; PROC SYSLIN 2SLS DATA=ESTIMASI OUTEST=HASIL_4; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI PHRMMW ; PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL MODEL LAKSMRS= L3HRMSD L3HRMKD L3HRKD PHRF LUPRBUN LSBR TREN DW; MODEL LAKSMRK= L3HRMSD L3HRKD LHRF LUPRBUN LSBR TREN DW; MODEL LAKSMNS= L3HRMSD L3HRMKD L3HRKD PHRF LUPRBUN LSBR TREN DW; MODEL LAKSMNK= L3HRMSD L3HRKD LHRF UPRBUN PSBR TREN DW; MODEL LAKSMSS= L3HRMSD L3HRKD LHRF LUPRBUN PSBR TREN DW; MODEL LAKSMSK= L3HRMSD LHRF LUPRBUN SBR TREN DW; MODEL YMSRS= RHMSF LLAKSMRS CURAH DW; MODEL YMSRK= RHMSF LLAKSMRK LUPRBUN LYMSRK DW; MODEL YMSNS= RHMSF LLAKSMNS CURAH LYMSNS DW; MODEL YMSNK= RHMSF LLAKSMNK CURAH TREN LYMSNK DW; MODEL YMSSS= RHMSF LLAKSMSS LYMSSS DW; MODEL YMSSK= LHRMSD LLAKSMSK CURAH TREN DW; MODEL XMSI= PHRXMSI QMSI LNTERI LXMSI DW; MODEL DMSIMG= HRMSD HRMKD HRMGSD TREN LDMSIMG DW; MODEL DMSIL= HRMSD HRMKD HRMMW LUPRIN SBR TREN LDMSIL DW; MODEL HRMSD= SMSD DMSD HRXMSI LHRMSD DW; MODEL HRXMSI= HRMSW PHRMMW XMSI PXMSI LHRXMSI DW; MODEL XMSM= SHRXMSM SHRMKW QMSM NTERM LXMSM DW; MODEL MMSC= HRMSW HRMKDW INCRC NTERC LMMSC DW; MODEL MMSIND= SHRMSW LHRMKDW INCRIND LMMSIND DW; MODEL MMSP= HRMSW HRMKDW INCRP LNTERP LMMSP DW; MODEL HRMSW= XMSW MMSW LHRMSW DW; MODEL QMGS= LHRMGSD LHRMSD TREN LQMGS DW; MODEL XMGS= LHRXMGSI HRMGSD QMGS LNTERI LXMGS DW; MODEL DMGS= HRMGSD HRMGKD INCRI LDMGS DW; MODEL HRMGSD= EXDMGS HRXMGSI LHRMGSD DW; MODEL HRXMGSI= HRMGSW PXMGS DW; PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS IDENTITY QMSRS=QMSRS+0; IDENTITY QMSRK=QMSRK+0; IDENTITY QMSNS=QMSNS+0; IDENTITY QMSNK=QMSNK+0; IDENTITY QMSSS=QMSSS+0; IDENTITY QMSSK=QMSSK+0; IDENTITY QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; IDENTITY DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; IDENTITY SMSD= QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; IDENTITY XMSW= XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; IDENTITY MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; IDENTITY SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; RUN; Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan dalam Model Penawaran dan Permintaan Minyak Sawit Indonesia Lampiran 4a. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan pada Blok Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAKSMRS Dependent Variable LAKSMRS Label luas areal kelapa sawit kebun rakyat di Sumatera Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 5242805 748972.1 84.78 .0001 Error 13 114851.9 8834.763 Corrected Total 20 5357657 Root MSE 93.99342 R-Square 0.97856 Dependent Mean 583.83533 Adj R-Sq 0.96702 Coeff Var 16.09930 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 731.0415 218.5470 3.35 0.0053 Intercept L3HRMSD 1 0.134501 0.049658 2.71 0.0179 harga riil CPO Indonesia t-3 L3HRMKD 1 -0.11378 0.036780 -3.09 0.0086 harga riil minyk kelapa Indonesia t-3 L3HRKD 1 -0.03228 0.021184 -1.52 0.1515 harga riil karet Indonesia t-3 PHRF 1 -5.72475 2.759837 -2.07 0.0585 pertumbuhan harga riil pupuk LUPRBUN 1 -0.06520 0.015615 -4.18 0.0011 lag upah riil perkebunan LSBR 1 -2.64737 2.380207 -1.11 0.2862 lag suku bunga BI riil TREN 1 42.25342 7.742129 5.46 0.0001 teknologi Durbin-Watson 1.582473 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.07653 Lampiran 4a. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAKSMRK Dependent Variable LAKSMRK Label luas areal kelapa sawit kebun rakyat di Kalimantan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 181950.7 30325.12 89.70 .0001 Error 14 4733.165 338.0832 Corrected Total 20 186683.9 Root MSE 18.38704 R-Square 0.97465 Dependent Mean 110.65543 Adj R-Sq 0.96378 Coeff Var 16.61648 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 21.05198 32.99978 0.64 0.5338 Intercept L3HRMSD 1 0.010901 0.009624 1.13 0.2764 harga riil CPO Indonesia t-3 L3HRKD 1 -0.00264 0.003986 -0.66 0.5189 harga riil karet Indonesia t-3 LHRF 1 -0.04265 0.042228 -1.01 0.3297 lag harga riil pupuk LUPRBUN 1 -0.00957 0.003664 -2.61 0.0205 lag upah riil perkebunan LSBR 1 -0.09085 0.427611 -0.21 0.8348 lag suku bunga BI riil TREN 1 14.51194 1.797681 8.07 .0001 teknologi Durbin-Watson 1.207351 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.35345 Lampiran 4a. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAKSMNS Dependent Variable LAKSMNS Label luas areal kelapa sawit kebun negara di Sumatera Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 118803.3 16971.90 31.51 .0001 Error 13 7002.040 538.6185 Corrected Total 20 125805.3 Root MSE 23.20816 R-Square 0.94434 Dependent Mean 366.03329 Adj R-Sq 0.91437 Coeff Var 6.34045 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 320.1631 53.96200 5.93 .0001 Intercept L3HRMSD 1 0.016473 0.012261 1.34 0.2021 harga riil CPO Indonesia t-3 L3HRMKD 1 -0.01228 0.009081 -1.35 0.1994 harga riil minyk kelapa Indonesia t-3 L3HRKD 1 -0.00954 0.005231 -1.82 0.0912 harga riil karet Indonesia t-3 PHRF 1 -1.17485 0.681438 -1.72 0.1084 pertumbuhan harga riil pupuk LUPRBUN 1 -0.00138 0.003855 -0.36 0.7252 lag upah riil perkebunan LSBR 1 -0.75474 0.587703 -1.28 0.2215 lag suku bunga BI riil TREN 1 7.719496 1.911629 4.04 0.0014 teknologi Durbin-Watson 1.587382 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.01938 Lampiran 4a. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAKSMNK Dependent Variable LAKSMNK Label luas areal kelapa sawit kebun negara di Kalimantan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 3639.269 606.5449 37.87 .0001 Error 14 224.2521 16.01801 Corrected Total 20 3863.522 Root MSE 4.00225 R-Square 0.94196 Dependent Mean 35.52305 Adj R-Sq 0.91708 Coeff Var 11.26663 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 23.64347 7.766097 3.04 0.0087 Intercept L3HRMSD 1 0.001029 0.002103 0.49 0.6322 harga riil CPO Indonesia t-3 L3HRKD 1 -0.00081 0.000855 -0.94 0.3612 harga riil karet Indonesia t-3 LHRF 1 -0.00446 0.008349 -0.53 0.6015 lag harga riil pupuk UPRBUN 1 -0.00104 0.000712 -1.46 0.1658 upah riil perkebunan PSBR 1 -0.00913 0.003690 -2.47 0.0268 pertumbuhan suku bunga riil TREN 1 1.877661 0.350312 5.36 0.0001 teknologi Durbin-Watson 2.033182 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09384 Lampiran 4a. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAKSMSS Dependent Variable LAKSMSS Label luas areal kelapa sawit kebun swasta di Sumatera Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 6230510 1038418 221.92 .0001 Error 14 65510.69 4679.335 Corrected Total 20 6296021 Root MSE 68.40567 R-Square 0.98959 Dependent Mean 761.54400 Adj R-Sq 0.98514 Coeff Var 8.98250 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 109.1232 122.6259 0.89 0.3886 Intercept L3HRMSD 1 0.150833 0.035840 4.21 0.0009 harga riil CPO Indonesia t-3 L3HRKD 1 -0.05408 0.014644 -3.69 0.0024 harga riil karet Indonesia t-3 LHRF 1 -0.19023 0.155185 -1.23 0.2405 lag harga riil pupuk LUPRBUN 1 -0.03752 0.013632 -2.75 0.0156 lag upah riil perkebunan PSBR 1 -0.04666 0.060395 -0.77 0.4526 pertumbuhan suku bunga riil TREN 1 76.43873 6.496667 11.77 .0001 teknologi Durbin-Watson 1.745508 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.111464 Lampiran 4a. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model LAKSMSK Dependent Variable LAKSMSK Label luas areal kelapa sawit kebun swasta di Kalimantan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 735163.7 147032.7 47.46 .0001 Error 15 46470.79 3098.053 Corrected Total 20 781634.5 Root MSE 55.66015 R-Square 0.94055 Dependent Mean 151.78181 Adj R-Sq 0.92073 Coeff Var 36.67116 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 182.8267 120.1654 1.52 0.1489 Intercept L3HRMSD 1 0.057925 0.028611 2.02 0.0611 harga riil CPO Indonesia t-3 LHRF 1 -0.48394 0.122765 -3.94 0.0013 lag harga riil pupuk LUPRBUN 1 -0.02139 0.012297 -1.74 0.1024 lag upah riil perkebunan SBR 1 -0.52938 1.473018 -0.36 0.7243 suku bunga BI riil TREN 1 35.35273 5.110346 6.92 .0001 teknologi Durbin-Watson 2.140962 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.08798 Lampiran 4b. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan pada Blok Minyak Sawit The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YMSRS Dependent Variable YMSRS Label produktivitas minyak sawit kebun rakyat di Sumatera Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 0.595909 0.198636 1.37 0.2861 Error 17 2.467770 0.145163 Corrected Total 20 3.063679 Root MSE 0.38100 R-Square 0.19451 Dependent Mean 2.84027 Adj R-Sq 0.05236 Coeff Var 13.41430 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 3.020529 0.792440 3.81 0.0014 Intercept RHMSF 1 0.193849 0.176000 1.10 0.2861 Rasio harga minyak sawit dengan harga pupuk LLAKSMRS 1 0.000316 0.000261 1.21 0.2426 lag LAKSMRS CURAH 1 -0.00034 0.000254 -1.35 0.1961 curah hujan Durbin-Watson 2.106082 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.17968 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YMSRK Dependent Variable YMSRK Label produktivitas minyak sawit kebun rakyat di Kalimantan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 0.568282 0.142071 3.09 0.0462 Error 16 0.736360 0.046023 Corrected Total 20 1.304642 Root MSE 0.21453 R-Square 0.43558 Dependent Mean 2.05906 Adj R-Sq 0.29448 Coeff Var 10.41876 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 2.142651 0.516987 4.14 0.0008 Intercept RHMSF 1 0.092637 0.098270 0.94 0.3599 Rasio harga minyak sawit dengan harga pupuk LLAKSMRK 1 0.000525 0.000668 0.78 0.4440 lag LAKSMRK LUPRBUN 1 -0.00007 0.000036 -1.88 0.0782 lag upah riil perkebunan LYMSRK 1 0.107587 0.129301 0.83 0.4176 lag dari YMSRK Durbin-Watson 1.71509 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.129733 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YMSNS Dependent Variable YMSNS Label produktivitas minyak sawit kebun negara di Sumatera Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 2.586544 0.646636 4.90 0.0090 Error 16 2.112173 0.132011 Corrected Total 20 4.698717 Root MSE 0.36333 R-Square 0.55048 Dependent Mean 4.10719 Adj R-Sq 0.43810 Coeff Var 8.84626 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.375788 1.176391 1.17 0.2593 Intercept RHMSF 1 0.151039 0.166050 0.91 0.3765 Rasio harga minyak sawit dengan harga pupuk LLAKSMNS 1 0.000324 0.001348 0.24 0.8134 lag LAKSMNS CURAH 1 -0.00023 0.000230 -0.98 0.3416 curah hujan LYMSNS 1 0.677464 0.185840 3.65 0.0022 lag dari YMSNS Durbin-Watson 2.065574 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.07571 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YMSNK Dependent Variable YMSNK Label produktivitas minyak sawit kebun negara di Kalimantan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 3.265624 0.653125 3.00 0.0451 Error 15 3.266234 0.217749 Corrected Total 20 6.531858 Root MSE 0.46664 R-Square 0.49995 Dependent Mean 2.98111 Adj R-Sq 0.33327 Coeff Var 15.65309 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.403913 1.058676 1.33 0.2046 Intercept RHMSF 1 0.277171 0.220323 1.26 0.2276 Rasio harga minyak sawit dengan harga pupuk LLAKSMNK 1 0.008292 0.023545 0.35 0.7296 lag LAKSMNK CURAH 1 -0.00040 0.000309 -1.30 0.2137 curah hujan TREN 1 0.011875 0.058578 0.20 0.8421 teknologi LYMSNK 1 0.488330 0.183995 2.65 0.0180 lag dari YMSNK Durbin-Watson 2.492799 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.25563 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YMSSS Dependent Variable YMSSS Label produktivitas minyak sawit kebun swasta di Sumatera Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 0.788424 0.262808 2.82 0.0704 Error 17 1.586968 0.093351 Corrected Total 20 2.375392 Root MSE 0.30553 R-Square 0.33191 Dependent Mean 3.62879 Adj R-Sq 0.21402 Coeff Var 8.41973 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.512447 0.779291 1.94 0.0691 Intercept RHMSF 1 0.077920 0.141527 0.55 0.5891 Rasio harga minyak sawit dengan harga pupuk LLAKSMSS 1 0.000043 0.000143 0.30 0.7670 lag LAKSMSS LYMSSS 1 0.512703 0.197523 2.60 0.0188 lag dari YMSSS Durbin-Watson 1.371649 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.221943 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model YMSSK Dependent Variable YMSSK Label produktivitas minyak sawit kebun swasta di Kalimantan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 8.418577 2.104644 1.89 0.1615 Error 16 17.82408 1.114005 Corrected Total 20 26.24266 Root MSE 1.05546 R-Square 0.32080 Dependent Mean 2.34340 Adj R-Sq 0.15100 Coeff Var 45.03984 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 2.568283 1.681152 1.53 0.1461 Intercept LHRMSD 1 0.000166 0.000843 0.20 0.8461 lag harga riil CPO Indonesia LLAKSMSK 1 0.001385 0.004333 0.32 0.7534 lag LAKSMSK CURAH 1 -0.00086 0.000965 -0.89 0.3871 curah hujan TREN 1 0.096688 0.131235 0.74 0.4719 teknologi Durbin-Watson 1.960431 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.03514 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model XMSI Dependent Variable XMSI Label expor CPO Indonesia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 2.606E8 65150320 139.38 .0001 Error 16 7478644 467415.2 Corrected Total 20 2.6808E8 Root MSE 683.67772 R-Square 0.97210 Dependent Mean 3926.83476 Adj R-Sq 0.96513 Coeff Var 17.41040 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -1234.55 622.8285 -1.98 0.0649 Intercept PHRXMSI 1 1.119779 7.270178 0.15 0.8795 pertumbuhan harga riil expor CPO Indonesia QMSI 1 0.565429 0.223031 2.54 0.0221 produksi CPO Indonesia LNTERI 1 0.079759 0.117630 0.68 0.5074 lag nilai tukar efektif riil Indonesia LXMSI 1 0.219529 0.335636 0.65 0.5224 lag expor CPO Indonesia Durbin-Watson 2.115024 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.07635 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DMSIMG Dependent Variable DMSIMG Label demand CPO oleh Industri Mnyk Goreng Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 16442346 3288469 56.79 .0001 Error 15 868515.3 57901.02 Corrected Total 20 17310862 Root MSE 240.62631 R-Square 0.94983 Dependent Mean 2156.62251 Adj R-Sq 0.93310 Coeff Var 11.15755 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -2069.97 679.9983 -3.04 0.0082 Intercept HRMSD 1 -0.11852 0.197092 -0.60 0.5566 harga riil CPO Indonesia HRMKD 1 0.196745 0.103871 1.89 0.0777 harga riil minyk kelapa Indonesia HRMGSD 1 0.382789 0.190315 2.01 0.0626 harga riil minyk goreng sawit domestik TREN 1 141.1295 36.59031 3.86 0.0016 teknologi LDMSIMG 1 0.296824 0.199253 1.49 0.1570 lag dari DMSIMG Durbin-Watson 2.741573 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.40955 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DMSIL Dependent Variable DMSIL Label demand CPO oleh Industri Lain Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 852856.9 121836.7 1.22 0.3579 Error 13 1296664 99743.35 Corrected Total 20 2149520 Root MSE 315.82171 R-Square 0.39677 Dependent Mean 535.41035 Adj R-Sq 0.07195 Coeff Var 58.98685 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1400.728 1159.876 1.21 0.2487 Intercept HRMSD 1 -0.00922 0.199825 -0.05 0.9639 harga riil CPO Indonesia HRMKD 1 0.183806 0.139551 1.32 0.2105 harga riil minyk kelapa Indonesia HRMMW 1 0.638918 10.25568 0.06 0.9513 harga riil minyak mentah dunia LUPRIN 1 -0.10846 0.081327 -1.33 0.2052 lag upah riil industri SBR 1 -22.6230 10.66579 -2.12 0.0537 suku bunga BI riil TREN 1 14.48417 32.58435 0.44 0.6640 teknologi LDMSIL 1 0.050579 0.239382 0.21 0.8359 lag dari DMSIL Durbin-Watson 1.942971 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.04987 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HRMSD Dependent Variable HRMSD Label harga riil CPO Indonesia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 6087639 1521910 8.34 0.0008 Error 16 2920969 182560.6 Corrected Total 20 9008608 Root MSE 427.27108 R-Square 0.67576 Dependent Mean 2797.34414 Adj R-Sq 0.59470 Coeff Var 15.27417 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 429.1900 679.8636 0.63 0.5368 Intercept SMSD 1 -0.02815 0.055515 -0.51 0.6190 supply CPO Indonesia DMSD 1 0.588235 0.227753 2.58 0.0200 demand CPO Indonesia HRXMSI 1 0.860154 1.006987 0.85 0.4056 harga riil expor CPO Indonesia LHRMSD 1 0.203342 0.214575 0.95 0.3574 lag harga riil CPO Indonesia Durbin-Watson 1.687957 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.109735 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HRXMSI Dependent Variable HRXMSI Label harga riil expor CPO Indonesia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 243397.1 48679.41 74.79 .0001 Error 15 9762.824 650.8549 Corrected Total 20 253159.9 Root MSE 25.51186 R-Square 0.96144 Dependent Mean 419.40544 Adj R-Sq 0.94858 Coeff Var 6.08286 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -57.7283 36.85603 -1.57 0.1381 Intercept HRMSW 1 0.873691 0.063972 13.66 .0001 harga riil CPO dunia PHRMMW 1 0.053221 0.308452 0.17 0.8653 Pertumbuhan harga riil minyak mentah dunia XMSI 1 -0.00092 0.001999 -0.46 0.6535 expor CPO Indonesia PXMSI 1 -1.98794 0.665201 -2.99 0.0092 pajak expor CPO Indonesia LHRXMSI 1 0.168987 0.077256 2.19 0.0450 lag harga riil expor CPO Indonesia Durbin-Watson 1.76083 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.067214 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model XMSM Dependent Variable XMSM Label expor CPO Malaysia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 2.0562E8 41124334 397.77 .0001 Error 15 1550817 103387.8 Corrected Total 20 2.0717E8 Root MSE 321.53977 R-Square 0.99251 Dependent Mean 8575.77619 Adj R-Sq 0.99002 Coeff Var 3.74940 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -1467.23 539.5533 -2.72 0.0158 Intercept SHRXMSM 1 1.352876 0.985768 1.37 0.1901 perubahan harga riil expor minyak sawit Malaysia SHRMKW 1 0.289920 0.578711 0.50 0.6237 perubahan harga riil minyak kelapa dunia QMSM 1 0.668988 0.135053 4.95 0.0002 produksi CPO Malaysia NTERM 1 734.3466 233.0886 3.15 0.0066 nilai tukar efektif riil Malaysia LXMSM 1 0.148848 0.159218 0.93 0.3647 lag expor CPO Malaysia Durbin-Watson 1.943716 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.02883 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MMSC Dependent Variable MMSC Label impor CPO Cina Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 50602168 10120434 211.68 .0001 Error 15 717155.3 47810.35 Corrected Total 20 51319324 Root MSE 218.65578 R-Square 0.98603 Dependent Mean 2045.79524 Adj R-Sq 0.98137 Coeff Var 10.68806 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -1050.95 654.6472 -1.61 0.1293 Intercept HRMSW 1 -2.86442 0.793566 -3.61 0.0026 harga riil CPO dunia HRMKDW 1 3.455280 0.953099 3.63 0.0025 harga riil minyk kedele dunia INCRC 1 0.330337 0.071198 4.64 0.0003 pendapatan per kapita riil Cina NTERC 1 -14.5294 66.49078 -0.22 0.8300 nilai tukar efektif riil Cina LMMSC 1 0.181443 0.197615 0.92 0.3731 lag impor CPO Cina Durbin-Watson 2.208406 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.12557 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MMSIND Dependent Variable MMSIND Label impor CPO India Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 37507853 9376963 41.76 .0001 Error 16 3592492 224530.8 Corrected Total 20 41100346 Root MSE 473.84679 R-Square 0.91259 Dependent Mean 1946.63333 Adj R-Sq 0.89074 Coeff Var 24.34186 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -694.925 969.3966 -0.72 0.4838 Intercept SHRMSW 1 -1.07752 1.028541 -1.05 0.3104 perubahan harga riil minyak sawit dunia LHRMKDW 1 0.205179 1.791087 0.11 0.9102 lag harga riil minyak kedele dunia INCRIND 1 0.050203 0.047688 1.05 0.3081 pendapatan per kapita riil India LMMSIND 1 0.855156 0.204912 4.17 0.0007 lag impor CPO India Durbin-Watson 1.547803 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.186837 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MMSP Dependent Variable MMSP Label impor CPO Pakistan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 2639686 527937.2 62.22 .0001 Error 15 127268.0 8484.531 Corrected Total 20 2766954 Root MSE 92.11152 R-Square 0.95400 Dependent Mean 1128.54286 Adj R-Sq 0.93867 Coeff Var 8.16199 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 206.2166 303.4111 0.68 0.5071 Intercept HRMSW 1 -1.05576 0.389610 -2.71 0.0161 harga riil CPO dunia HRMKDW 1 0.742833 0.386770 1.92 0.0740 harga riil minyk kedele dunia INCRP 1 0.000783 0.009945 0.08 0.9383 pendapatan per kapita riil Pakistan LNTERP 1 -0.65759 6.136774 -0.11 0.9161 lag nilai tukar efektif riil Pakistan LMMSP 1 0.966606 0.160222 6.03 .0001 lag impor CPO Pakistan Durbin-Watson 2.94059 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.49923 Lampiran 4b. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HRMSW Dependent Variable HRMSW Label harga riil CPO dunia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 89581.06 29860.35 2.25 0.1201 Error 17 226107.2 13300.42 Corrected Total 20 315688.2 Root MSE 115.32745 R-Square 0.28376 Dependent Mean 489.13926 Adj R-Sq 0.15737 Coeff Var 23.57763 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 279.8991 158.6488 1.76 0.0956 Intercept XMSW 1 -0.00895 0.021439 -0.42 0.6817 expor CPO dunia MMSW 1 0.007431 0.020287 0.37 0.7187 impor CPO dunia LHRMSW 1 0.496797 0.242345 2.05 0.0561 lag harga riil CPO dunia Durbin-Watson 1.405864 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.194042 Lampiran 4c. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan pada Blok Minyak Goreng Sawit The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QMGS Dependent Variable QMGS Label produksi minyk goreng sawit domestik Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 44211454 11052863 11.65 0.0001 Error 16 15179776 948736.0 Corrected Total 20 59391230 Root MSE 974.03080 R-Square 0.74441 Dependent Mean 2326.59914 Adj R-Sq 0.68051 Coeff Var 41.86500 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -5591.99 2375.611 -2.35 0.0317 Intercept LHRMGSD 1 1.687388 0.770765 2.19 0.0437 lag harga riil minyk goreng sawit domestik LHRMSD 1 -1.27330 0.806699 -1.58 0.1340 lag harga riil CPO Indonesia TREN 1 309.2388 104.6454 2.96 0.0093 teknologi LQMGS 1 0.190226 0.227979 0.83 0.4163 lag produksi minyk goreng sawit Durbin-Watson 2.406279 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21985 Lampiran 4c. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model XMGS Dependent Variable XMGS Label expor minyk goreng sawit Indonesia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 8832096 1766419 21.39 .0001 Error 15 1238596 82573.09 Corrected Total 20 10070692 Root MSE 287.35534 R-Square 0.87701 Dependent Mean 898.33220 Adj R-Sq 0.83601 Coeff Var 31.98765 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -642.055 635.5984 -1.01 0.3284 Intercept LHRXMGSI 1 1.096729 0.583583 1.88 0.0798 lag harga riil expor minyk goreng sawit Indonesia HRMGSD 1 -0.06113 0.141115 -0.43 0.6710 harga riil minyk goreng sawit domestik QMGS 1 0.099493 0.053033 1.88 0.0802 produksi minyk goreng sawit domestik LNTERI 1 0.067756 0.047892 1.41 0.1776 lag nilai tukar efektif riil Indonesia LXMGS 1 0.711027 0.162769 4.37 0.0006 lag expor minyak goreng sawit Durbin-Watson 2.803893 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.42795 Lampiran 4c. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DMGS Dependent Variable DMGS Label demand minyk goreng sawit domestik Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1763351 440837.7 5.57 0.0053 Error 16 1266195 79137.18 Corrected Total 20 3029546 Root MSE 281.31331 R-Square 0.58205 Dependent Mean 934.22907 Adj R-Sq 0.47756 Coeff Var 30.11181 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 402.6444 1006.150 0.40 0.6943 Intercept HRMGSD 1 -0.30884 0.139159 -2.22 0.0413 harga riil minyk goreng sawit domestik HRMGKD 1 0.219999 0.139581 1.58 0.1346 harga riil minyk goreng kelapa domestik INCRI 1 0.036703 0.052335 0.70 0.4932 pendapatan per kapita riil Indonesia LDMGS 1 0.523212 0.203331 2.57 0.0204 lag demand minyk goreng sawit domestik Durbin-Watson 1.290149 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.302743 Lampiran 4c. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HRMGSD Dependent Variable HRMGSD Label harga riil minyk goreng sawit domestik Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 1683618 561206.1 3.02 0.0587 Error 17 3162470 186027.7 Corrected Total 20 4846089 Root MSE 431.30925 R-Square 0.34742 Dependent Mean 3947.55617 Adj R-Sq 0.23226 Coeff Var 10.92598 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 2810.630 826.1351 3.40 0.0034 Intercept EXDMGS 1 0.003943 0.083177 0.05 0.9627 excess demand minyak goreng sawit Indonesia HRXMGSI 1 2.222506 0.811149 2.74 0.0140 harga riil expor minyk goreng sawit Indonesia LHRMGSD 1 0.006868 0.203199 0.03 0.9734 lag harga riil minyk goreng sawit domestik Durbin-Watson 1.73984 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.054989 Lampiran 4c. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model HRXMGSI Dependent Variable HRXMGSI Label harga riil expor minyk goreng sawit Indonesia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 334738.3 167369.2 4188.31 .0001 Error 18 719.2988 39.96104 Corrected Total 20 335457.6 Root MSE 6.32147 R-Square 0.99786 Dependent Mean 500.32314 Adj R-Sq 0.99762 Coeff Var 1.26348 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -19.3125 5.908679 -3.27 0.0043 Intercept HRMGSW 1 0.972813 0.011046 88.07 .0001 harga riil minyk goreng sawit dunia PXMGS 1 -0.01548 0.024939 -0.62 0.5426 Pertumbuhan expor minyak goreng sawit Durbin-Watson 0.570417 Number of Observations 21 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.574846 Lampiran 5. Program Validasi Persamaan dalam Model Penawaran dan Permintaan Minyak Sawit Indonesia PROGRAM VALIDASI OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA VALIDASI; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; PROC SIMNLIN DATA=VALIDASI DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=A ; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS Lampiran 5. Lanjutan SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW PHRMMW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI ; L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; PARM A0 731.0415 A1 0.134501 A2 -0.11378 A3 -0.03228 A4 -5.72475 A5 -0.06520 A6 -2.64737 A7 42.25342 B0 21.05198 B1 0.010901 B2 -0.00264 B3 -0.04265 B4 -0.00957 B5 -0.09085 B6 14.51194 C0 320.1631 C1 0.016473 C2 -0.01228 C3 -0.00954 C4 -1.17485 C5 -0.00138 C6 -0.75474 C7 7.719496 D0 23.64347 D1 0.001029 D2 -0.00081 D3 -0.00446 D4 -0.00104 D5 -0.00913 D6 1.877661 E0 109.1232 E1 0.150833 E2 -0.05408 E3 -0.19023 E4 -0.03752 E5 -0.04666 E6 76.43873 F0 182.8267 F1 0.057925 F2 -0.48394 F3 -0.02139 F4 -0.52938 F5 35.35273 G0 3.020529 G1 0.193849 G2 0.000316 G3 -0.00034 H0 2.142651 H1 0.092637 H2 0.000525 H3 -0.00007 H4 0.107587 I0 1.375788 I1 0.151039 I2 0.000324 I3 -0.00023 I4 0.677464 J0 1.403913 J1 0.277171 J2 0.008292 J3 -0.00040 J4 0.011875 J5 0.488330 K0 1.512447 K1 0.077920 K2 0.000043 K3 0.512703 L0 2.568283 L1 0.000166 L2 0.001385 L3 -0.00086 L4 0.096688 M0 -1234.55 M1 1.119779 M2 0.565429 M3 0.079759 M4 0.219529 N0 -1365.99 N1 -0.31981 N2 0.525389 N3 -6.96387 N4 103.3167 N5 0.464863 O0 1400.728 O1 -0.00922 O2 0.183806 O3 0.638918 O4 -0.10846 O5 -22.6230 O6 14.48417 O7 0.050579 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan P0 429.1900 P1 -0.02815 P2 0.588235 P3 0.860154 P4 0.203342 Q0 -57.7283 Q1 0.873691 Q2 0.053221 Q3 -0.00092 Q4 -1.98794 Q5 0.168987 R0 -1467.23 R1 1.352876 R2 0.289920 R3 0.668988 R4 734.3466 R5 0.148848 S0 -1050.95 S1 -2.86442 S2 3.455280 S3 0.330337 S4 -14.5294 S5 0.181443 T0 -694.925 T1 -1.07752 T2 0.205179 T3 0.050203 T4 0.855156 U0 206.2166 U1 -1.05576 U2 0.742833 U3 0.000783 U4 -0.65759 U5 0.966606 V0 279.8991 V1 -0.00895 V2 0.007431 V3 0.496797 W0 -5591.99 W1 1.687388 W2 -1.27330 W3 309.2388 W4 0.190226 X0 -642.055 X1 1.096729 X2 -0.06113 X3 0.099493 X4 0.067756 X5 0.711027 Y0 402.6444 Y1 -0.30884 Y2 0.219999 Y3 0.036703 Y4 0.523212 Z0 2193.248 Z1 0.054764 Z2 2.520597 Z3 20.50587 Z4 0.059529 AA0 -19.3125 AA1 0.972813 AA2 -0.01548; LAKSMRS= A0 + A1L3HRMSD + A2L3HRMKD + A3L3HRKD + A4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + A5LUPRBUN + A6LSBR + A7TREN ; LAKSMRK= B0 + B1L3HRMSD + B2L3HRKD + B3LHRF + B4LUPRBUN + B5LSBR + B6TREN ; LAKSMNS= C0 + C1L3HRMSD + C2L3HRMKD + C3L3HRKD + C4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + C5LUPRBUN + C6LSBR + C7TREN ; LAKSMNK= D0 + D1L3HRMSD + D2L3HRKD + D3LHRF + D4UPRBUN + D5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + D6TREN ; LAKSMSS= E0 + E1L3HRMSD + E2L3HRKD + E3LHRF + E4LUPRBUN + E5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + E6TREN ; LAKSMSK= F0 + F1L3HRMSD + F2LHRF + F3LUPRBUN + F4SBR + F5TREN ; YMSRS= G0 + G1HRMSDHRF + G2LLAKSMRS + G3CURAH ; YMSRK= H0 + H1HRMSDHRF + H2LLAKSMRK + H3LUPRBUN + H4LYMSRK ; YMSNS= I0 + I1HRMSDHRF + I2LLAKSMNS + I3CURAH + I4LYMSNS ; YMSNK= J0 + J1HRMSDHRF + J2LLAKSMNK + J3CURAH + J4TREN + J5LYMSNK ; YMSSS= K0 + K1HRMSDHRF + K2LLAKSMSS + K3LYMSSS ; YMSSK= L0 + L1LHRMSD + L2LLAKSMSK + L3CURAH + L4TREN ; XMSI= M0 + M1HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100 + M2QMSI + M3LNTERI + M4LXMSI ; DMSIMG= N0 + N1HRMSD + N2HRMGSD + N3SBR + N4TREN + N5LDMSIMG ; DMSIL= O0 + O1HRMSD + O2HRMKD + O3HRMMW + O4LUPRIN + O5SBR + O6TREN + O7LDMSIL ; HRMSD= P0 + P1SMSD + P2DMSD + P3HRXMSI + P4LHRMSD ; HRXMSI= Q0 + Q1HRMSW + Q2HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100 + Q3XMSI+ Q4PXMSI + Q5LHRXMSI; XMSM= R0 + R1HRXMSM-LHRXMSM+ R2HRMKW-LHRMKW+ R3QMSM + R4NTERM + R5LXMSM ; MMSC= S0 + S1HRMSW + S2HRMKDW + S3INCRC + S4NTERC + S5LMMSC ; MMSIND= T0 + T1HRMSW-LHRMSW+ T2LHRMKDW + T3INCRIND + T4LMMSIND ; MMSP= U0 + U1HRMSW + U2HRMKDW + U3INCRP + U4LNTERP + U5LMMSP ; HRMSW= V0 + V1XMSW + V2MMSW + V3LHRMSW ; QMGS= W0 + W1LHRMGSD + W2LHRMSD + W3TREN + W4LQMGS ; XMGS= X0 + X1LHRXMGSI + X2HRMGSD + X3QMGS + X4LNTERI + X5LXMGS ; DMGS= Y0 + Y1HRMGSD + Y2HRMGKD + Y3INCRI + Y4LDMGS ; HRMGSD= Z0 + Z1DMGS-SMGS + Z2HRXMGSI + Z3TREN + Z4LHRMGSD ; HRXMGSI= AA0+ AA1HRMGSW + AA2XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100 ; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD= QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW= XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; id tahun; RANGE TAHUN= 2003 TO 2007; proc print data=a; RUN; Lampiran 6. Hasil Validasi Model Penawaran dan Permintaan Minyak Sawit Indonesia, Tahun 2003-2007 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 39 Endogenous 39 Parameters 153 Range Variable Tahun ID Variables 1 Equations 39 Number of Statements 75 Program Lag Length 3 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= VALIDASI OUT= A Solution Summary Variables Solved 39 Simulation Lag Length 3 Solution Range Tahun First 2003 Last 2007 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 2.18E-16 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 10 Average Iterations 2 Observations Processed Read 8 Lagged 3 Solved 5 First 20 Last 24 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2007 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAKSMRS 5 5 1354.0 218.9 1336.9 120.0 LAKSMRK 5 5 251.0 38.3940 247.3 31.8490 LAKSMNS 5 5 476.4 42.9434 473.8 18.6353 LAKSMNK 5 5 55.3322 7.7216 54.6863 5.7661 LAKSMSS 5 5 1564.0 191.2 1550.6 158.8 LAKSMSK 5 5 438.8 178.3 445.7 120.0 YMSRS 5 5 2.9647 0.3193 3.0039 0.1305 YMSRK 5 5 2.3529 0.2470 2.2989 0.1046 YMSNS 5 5 3.7460 0.2740 3.7331 0.2498 YMSNK 5 5 3.0364 0.5428 3.2087 0.4040 YMSSS 5 5 3.7288 0.3035 3.5997 0.1556 YMSSK 5 5 3.3415 0.1146 3.1909 0.3133 QMSRS 5 5 4054.8 1029.3 4028.1 524.0 QMSRK 5 5 595.9 142.0 571.1 99.0976 QMSNS 5 5 1782.1 176.7 1771.8 175.3 QMSNK 5 5 168.8 39.6422 176.9 36.7725 QMSSS 5 5 5872.8 1113.2 5601.2 797.4 QMSSK 5 5 1478.3 632.6 1451.4 521.7 QMSI 5 5 14480.5 3136.7 14128.2 2263.2 QMGS 5 5 4924.6 1523.4 4231.8 284.9 DMSIMG 5 5 3269.8 217.8 3275.2 205.8 DMSIL 5 5 305.8 150.7 359.9 100.1 DMSD 5 5 3575.6 359.5 3635.1 261.0 DMGS 5 5 1005.8 23.0797 1028.6 86.7122 SMSD 5 5 8694.0 2956.4 8776.1 2538.0 SMGS 5 5 3243.4 1524.1 2676.8 275.4 HRMSD 5 5 3198.6 443.4 3344.5 118.6 HRXMSI 5 5 376.5 86.7051 397.9 22.0413 HRMSW 5 5 454.5 110.1 466.2 20.1432 HRMGSD 5 5 3786.6 593.7 3788.1 50.8853 HRXMGSI 5 5 402.5 20.4545 397.3 21.3806 XMSI 5 5 9554.2 2105.8 9119.8 1572.8 XMSM 5 5 13281.4 890.1 13138.0 830.6 XMSW 5 5 26256.4 4009.4 25678.6 3566.7 XMGS 5 5 1681.2 147.7 1555.1 28.1319 MMSC 5 5 4543.1 1024.4 4488.9 1129.1 MMSIND 5 5 3527.0 311.9 3825.0 356.8 MMSP 5 5 1608.7 144.2 1483.3 108.2 MMSW 5 5 26202.4 3437.8 26320.8 3945.4 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2007 Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error LAKSMRS 5 -17.1628 -0.2049 82.0331 6.1663 102.3 7.7649 LAKSMRK 5 -3.7697 -1.0454 9.7812 4.1262 12.2940 5.2268 LAKSMNS 5 -2.5116 -0.0576 23.8571 5.0899 29.7858 6.5528 LAKSMNK 5 -0.6459 -0.5732 3.0784 5.1877 4.5930 7.5186 LAKSMSS 5 -13.3856 -0.6136 42.9717 2.6546 57.4338 3.3806 LAKSMSK 5 6.8710 6.4450 59.5650 14.8994 62.3445 15.6184 YMSRS 5 0.0391 2.0225 0.2085 7.2392 0.2325 8.2901 YMSRK 5 -0.0539 -1.6943 0.1444 6.1955 0.1656 7.1608 YMSNS 5 -0.0129 -0.2809 0.0868 2.2489 0.1051 2.6899 YMSNK 5 0.1724 6.5453 0.2599 8.8154 0.2767 9.4982 YMSSS 5 -0.1291 -3.1954 0.1775 4.6839 0.1909 4.9513 YMSSK 5 -0.1506 -4.6461 0.2185 6.6481 0.2476 7.6278 QMSRS 5 -26.7295 1.9812 502.8 12.1715 543.6 12.4702 QMSRK 5 -24.8172 -2.8271 39.5860 6.0823 53.4151 7.5030 QMSNS 5 -10.3051 -0.4802 67.1268 3.6979 81.2852 4.5369 QMSNK 5 8.1048 5.4867 9.2943 6.0687 10.2939 6.9987 QMSSS 5 -271.6 -3.7620 382.5 6.4097 413.7 6.7007 QMSSK 5 -26.9252 0.8296 122.3 7.8596 168.8 9.6654 QMSI 5 -352.3 -1.3873 741.9 4.8725 929.7 5.7956 QMGS 5 -692.8 -9.2620 832.7 12.5033 1529.4 20.3874 DMSIMG 5 5.4069 0.1860 17.6937 0.5420 19.0560 0.5831 DMSIL 5 54.0585 32.9723 147.0 49.5682 165.6 54.8387 DMSD 5 59.4654 1.9501 156.4 4.3108 179.2 4.8863 DMGS 5 22.7586 2.4148 81.9091 8.1326 95.9272 9.4897 SMSD 5 82.1000 2.7281 709.5 8.6456 893.5 10.7669 SMGS 5 -566.7 -7.1071 912.4 20.9782 1507.7 27.8455 HRMSD 5 145.9 6.3427 349.5 11.8010 458.6 16.3512 HRXMSI 5 21.4291 9.4824 68.5736 18.4796 81.2485 22.0133 HRMSW 5 11.7375 6.2302 76.9184 16.2923 92.9515 18.7640 HRMGSD 5 1.5019 2.1104 485.8 13.4426 523.2 14.9605 HRXMGSI 5 -5.2594 -1.3186 5.2594 1.3186 5.3242 1.3452 XMSI 5 -434.4 -3.3619 709.6 7.6711 770.9 8.2836 XMSM 5 -143.4 -1.0515 195.7 1.4320 245.4 1.7575 XMSW 5 -577.8 -1.9838 782.9 2.9776 816.4 3.0762 XMGS 5 -126.1 -6.9852 136.2 7.6596 175.9 9.6302 MMSC 5 -54.1963 -1.3035 277.7 5.3585 365.9 6.6926 MMSIND 5 298.0 9.2970 512.9 14.6991 565.3 16.4269 MMSP 5 -125.4 -7.4710 132.0 7.9315 165.1 9.7244 MMSW 5 118.4 0.2551 428.6 1.6485 593.1 2.2294 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 2003 To 2007 Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U LAKSMRS 5 10455.3 0.94 0.03 0.58 0.40 0.75 0.22 0.0747 0.0377 LAKSMRK 5 151.1 0.95 0.09 0.11 0.80 0.23 0.68 0.0485 0.0245 LAKSMNS 5 887.2 0.68 0.01 0.10 0.89 0.53 0.46 0.0623 0.0313 LAKSMNK 5 21.0957 0.75 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.15 0.84 0.0824 0.0415 LAKSMSS 5 3298.6 0.95 0.05 0.13 0.81 0.25 0.69 0.0365 0.0183 LAKSMSK 5 3886.8 0.97 0.01 0.57 0.42 0.70 0.29 0.1335 0.0674 YMSRS 5 0.0540 0.64 0.03 0.08 0.89 0.53 0.44 0.0781 0.0388 YMSRK 5 0.0274 0.80 0.11 0.25 0.64 0.59 0.30 0.0701 0.0355 YMSNS 5 0.0110 0.90 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.04 0.94 0.0280 0.0140 YMSNK 5 0.0766 0.91 0.39 0.08 0.53 0.20 0.41 0.0900 0.0439 YMSSS 5 0.0365 0.97 0.46 0.42 0.12 0.48 0.06 0.0511 0.0260 YMSSK 5 0.0613 0.88 0.37 0.59 0.04 0.52 0.11 0.0741 0.0378 QMSRS 5 295546 0.89 0.00 0.43 0.57 0.69 0.31 0.1307 0.0662 QMSRK 5 2853.2 0.97 0.22 0.41 0.38 0.52 0.27 0.0877 0.0450 QMSNS 5 6607.3 0.87 0.02 0.06 0.93 0.00 0.98 0.0454 0.0228 QMSNK 5 106.0 0.99 0.62 0.04 0.34 0.06 0.32 0.0597 0.0292 QMSSS 5 171172 0.99 0.43 0.43 0.14 0.47 0.10 0.0695 0.0357 QMSSK 5 28478.1 0.97 0.03 0.22 0.75 0.35 0.63 0.1066 0.0543 QMSI 5 864295 0.99 0.14 0.65 0.21 0.71 0.15 0.0630 0.0320 QMGS 5 2338999 0.09 0.21 0.01 0.79 0.52 0.27 0.2993 0.1636 DMSIMG 5 363.1 1.00 0.08 0.28 0.64 0.32 0.60 0.0058 0.0029 DMSIL 5 27410.1 0.07 0.11 0.23 0.66 0.07 0.82 0.4954 0.2348 DMSD 5 32125.9 0.86 0.11 0.06 0.83 0.24 0.65 0.0499 0.0248 DMGS 5 9202.0 -0.70 0.06 0.92 0.02 0.35 0.59 0.0954 0.0471 SMSD 5 798271 0.95 0.01 0.07 0.92 0.18 0.82 0.0983 0.0492 SMGS 5 2273288 -0.05 0.14 0.04 0.82 0.55 0.31 0.4285 0.2429 HRMSD 5 210330 -0.24 0.10 0.20 0.70 0.40 0.50 0.1423 0.0698 HRXMSI 5 6601.3 0.09 0.07 0.03 0.90 0.51 0.42 0.2114 0.1038 HRMSW 5 8640.0 0.43 0.02 0.07 0.92 0.75 0.23 0.1999 0.0998 HRMGSD 5 273759 0.21 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.86 0.14 0.1368 0.0687 HRXMGSI 5 28.3472 1.00 0.98 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.0132 0.0066 XMSI 5 594240 0.97 0.32 0.29 0.39 0.38 0.30 0.0792 0.0406 XMSM 5 60220.0 0.97 0.34 0.01 0.65 0.05 0.61 0.0184 0.0093 XMSW 5 666541 0.99 0.50 0.20 0.30 0.24 0.26 0.0308 0.0156 XMGS 5 30927.2 0.46 0.51 0.04 0.44 0.37 0.12 0.1043 0.0543 MMSC 5 133881 0.93 0.02 0.18 0.80 0.07 0.91 0.0789 0.0396 MMSIND 5 319521 -0.29 0.28 0.50 0.22 0.01 0.72 0.1598 0.0766 MMSP 5 27249.7 0.58 0.58 0.02 0.41 0.04 0.39 0.1023 0.0532 MMSW 5 351732 0.99 0.04 0.64 0.32 0.59 0.37 0.0225 0.0112 Lampiran 7. Program Simulasi Historis PROGRAM SIMULASI_HISTORIS OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA SIMULASI_HISTORIS; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; SIMULASI PENINGKATAN PAJAK EKSPOR MINYAK SAWIT INDONESIA PXMSI SEBESAR 50 PERSEN PXMSI=1.5PXMSI; SIMULASI PENURUNAN SUKU BUNGA SEBESAR 20 PERSEN SBR=0.8SBR; SIMULASI PENINGKATAN HARGA MINYAK SAWIT DUNIA 25 PERSEN HRMSW=1.25HRMSW; SIMULASI PENINGKATAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA 10 PERSEN HRMMW=1.1HRMMW; RUN; Lampiran 7. Lanjutan PROC SIMNLIN DATA= SIMULASI_HISTORIS DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=A ; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW PHRMMW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI ; L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; PARM A0 731.0415 A1 0.134501 A2 -0.11378 A3 -0.03228 A4 -5.72475 A5 -0.06520 A6 -2.64737 A7 42.25342 B0 21.05198 B1 0.010901 B2 -0.00264 B3 -0.04265 B4 -0.00957 B5 -0.09085 B6 14.51194 C0 320.1631 C1 0.016473 C2 -0.01228 C3 -0.00954 C4 -1.17485 C5 -0.00138 C6 -0.75474 C7 7.719496 D0 23.64347 D1 0.001029 D2 -0.00081 D3 -0.00446 D4 -0.00104 D5 -0.00913 D6 1.877661 E0 109.1232 E1 0.150833 E2 -0.05408 E3 -0.19023 E4 -0.03752 E5 -0.04666 E6 76.43873 F0 182.8267 F1 0.057925 F2 -0.48394 F3 -0.02139 F4 -0.52938 F5 35.35273 G0 3.020529 G1 0.193849 G2 0.000316 G3 -0.00034 H0 2.142651 H1 0.092637 H2 0.000525 H3 -0.00007 H4 0.107587 I0 1.375788 I1 0.151039 I2 0.000324 I3 -0.00023 I4 0.677464 J0 1.403913 J1 0.277171 J2 0.008292 J3 -0.00040 J4 0.011875 J5 0.488330 K0 1.512447 K1 0.077920 K2 0.000043 K3 0.512703 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan L0 2.568283 L1 0.000166 L2 0.001385 L3 -0.00086 L4 0.096688 M0 -1234.55 M1 1.119779 M2 0.565429 M3 0.079759 M4 0.219529 N0 -1365.99 N1 -0.31981 N2 0.525389 N3 -6.96387 N4 103.3167 N5 0.464863 O0 1400.728 O1 -0.00922 O2 0.183806 O3 0.638918 O4 -0.10846 O5 -22.6230 O6 14.48417 O7 0.050579 P0 429.1900 P1 -0.02815 P2 0.588235 P3 0.860154 P4 0.203342 Q0 -57.7283 Q1 0.873691 Q2 0.053221 Q3 -0.00092 Q4 -1.98794 Q5 0.168987 R0 -1467.23 R1 1.352876 R2 0.289920 R3 0.668988 R4 734.3466 R5 0.148848 S0 -1050.95 S1 -2.86442 S2 3.455280 S3 0.330337 S4 -14.5294 S5 0.181443 T0 -694.925 T1 -1.07752 T2 0.205179 T3 0.050203 T4 0.855156 U0 206.2166 U1 -1.05576 U2 0.742833 U3 0.000783 U4 -0.65759 U5 0.966606 V0 279.8991 V1 -0.00895 V2 0.007431 V3 0.496797 W0 -5591.99 W1 1.687388 W2 -1.27330 W3 309.2388 W4 0.190226 X0 -642.055 X1 1.096729 X2 -0.06113 X3 0.099493 X4 0.067756 X5 0.711027 Y0 402.6444 Y1 -0.30884 Y2 0.219999 Y3 0.036703 Y4 0.523212 Z0 2193.248 Z1 0.054764 Z2 2.520597 Z3 20.50587 Z4 0.059529 AA0 -19.3125 AA1 0.972813 AA2 -0.01548; LAKSMRS= A0 + A1L3HRMSD + A2L3HRMKD + A3L3HRKD + A4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + A5LUPRBUN + A6LSBR + A7TREN ; LAKSMRK= B0 + B1L3HRMSD + B2L3HRKD + B3LHRF + B4LUPRBUN + B5LSBR + B6TREN ; LAKSMNS= C0 + C1L3HRMSD + C2L3HRMKD + C3L3HRKD + C4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + C5LUPRBUN + C6LSBR + C7TREN ; LAKSMNK= D0 + D1L3HRMSD + D2L3HRKD + D3LHRF + D4UPRBUN + D5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + D6TREN ; LAKSMSS= E0 + E1L3HRMSD + E2L3HRKD + E3LHRF + E4LUPRBUN + E5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + E6TREN ; LAKSMSK= F0 + F1L3HRMSD + F2LHRF + F3LUPRBUN + F4SBR + F5TREN ; YMSRS= G0 + G1HRMSDHRF + G2LLAKSMRS + G3CURAH ; YMSRK= H0 + H1HRMSDHRF + H2LLAKSMRK + H3LUPRBUN + H4LYMSRK ; YMSNS= I0 + I1HRMSDHRF + I2LLAKSMNS + I3CURAH + I4LYMSNS ; YMSNK= J0 + J1HRMSDHRF + J2LLAKSMNK + J3CURAH + J4TREN + J5LYMSNK ; YMSSS= K0 + K1HRMSDHRF + K2LLAKSMSS + K3LYMSSS ; YMSSK= L0 + L1LHRMSD + L2LLAKSMSK + L3CURAH + L4TREN ; XMSI= M0 + M1HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100 + M2QMSI + M3LNTERI + M4LXMSI ; DMSIMG= N0 + N1HRMSD + N2HRMGSD + N3SBR + N4TREN + N5LDMSIMG ; DMSIL= O0 + O1HRMSD + O2HRMKD + O3HRMMW + O4LUPRIN + O5SBR + O6TREN + O7LDMSIL ; HRMSD= P0 + P1SMSD + P2DMSD + P3HRXMSI + P4LHRMSD ; HRXMSI= Q0 + Q1HRMSW + Q2HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100 + Q3XMSI+ Q4PXMSI + Q5LHRXMSI; XMSM= R0 + R1HRXMSM-LHRXMSM+ R2HRMKW-LHRMKW+ R3QMSM + R4NTERM + R5LXMSM ; MMSC= S0 + S1HRMSW + S2HRMKDW + S3INCRC + S4NTERC + S5LMMSC ; MMSIND= T0 + T1HRMSW-LHRMSW+ T2LHRMKDW + T3INCRIND + T4LMMSIND ; MMSP= U0 + U1HRMSW + U2HRMKDW + U3INCRP + U4LNTERP + U5LMMSP ; HRMSW= V0 + V1XMSW + V2MMSW + V3LHRMSW ; QMGS= W0 + W1LHRMGSD + W2LHRMSD + W3TREN + W4LQMGS ; XMGS= X0 + X1LHRXMGSI + X2HRMGSD + X3QMGS + X4LNTERI + X5LXMGS ; DMGS= Y0 + Y1HRMGSD + Y2HRMGKD + Y3INCRI + Y4LDMGS ; HRMGSD= Z0 + Z1DMGS-SMGS + Z2HRXMGSI + Z3TREN + Z4LHRMGSD ; HRXMGSI= AA0+ AA1HRMGSW + AA2XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100 ; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD= QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW= XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; id tahun; RANGE TAHUN= 2003 TO 2007; proc print data=a; RUN; Lampiran 8. Hasil Simulasi Historis Peningkatan Pajak Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia Sebesar 50 Persen The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 39 Endogenous 39 Parameters 153 Range Variable Tahun ID Variables 1 Equations 39 Number of Statements 75 Program Lag Length 3 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= SIMULASI_HISTORIS OUT= A Solution Summary Variables Solved 39 Simulation Lag Length 3 Solution Range Tahun First 2003 Last 2007 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 1.88E-16 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 10 Average Iterations 2 Observations Processed Read 8 Lagged 3 Solved 5 First 20 Last 24 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2007 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAKSMRS 5 5 1354.0 218.9 1336.8 119.8 LAKSMRK 5 5 251.0 38.3940 247.3 31.8357 LAKSMNS 5 5 476.4 42.9434 473.8 18.6262 LAKSMNK 5 5 55.3322 7.7216 54.6853 5.7657 LAKSMSS 5 5 1564.0 191.2 1550.5 158.7 LAKSMSK 5 5 438.8 178.3 445.6 120.0 YMSRS 5 5 2.9647 0.3193 3.0032 0.1302 YMSRK 5 5 2.3529 0.2470 2.2986 0.1045 YMSNS 5 5 3.7460 0.2740 3.7323 0.2494 YMSNK 5 5 3.0364 0.5428 3.2075 0.4034 YMSSS 5 5 3.7288 0.3035 3.5994 0.1555 YMSSK 5 5 3.3415 0.1146 3.1906 0.3132 QMSRS 5 5 4054.8 1029.3 4026.8 523.2 QMSRK 5 5 595.9 142.0 571.0 99.0100 QMSNS 5 5 1782.1 176.7 1771.3 175.0 QMSNK 5 5 168.8 39.6422 176.8 36.7342 QMSSS 5 5 5872.8 1113.2 5600.0 796.5 QMSSK 5 5 1478.3 632.6 1451.1 521.3 QMSI 5 5 14480.5 3136.7 14124.8 2260.5 QMGS 5 5 4924.6 1523.4 4234.5 285.9 DMSIMG 5 5 3269.8 217.8 3276.6 206.5 DMSIL 5 5 305.8 150.7 359.9 100.1 DMSD 5 5 3575.6 359.5 3636.5 261.6 DMGS 5 5 1005.8 23.0797 1028.6 86.6997 SMSD 5 5 8694.0 2956.4 8775.5 2537.4 SMGS 5 5 3243.4 1524.1 2678.9 276.0 HRMSD 5 5 3198.6 443.4 3341.2 118.1 HRXMSI 5 5 376.5 86.7051 393.5 21.6396 HRMSW 5 5 454.5 110.1 466.2 20.1601 HRMGSD 5 5 3786.6 593.7 3787.9 50.9279 HRXMGSI 5 5 402.5 20.4545 397.3 21.3806 XMSI 5 5 9554.2 2105.8 9117.0 1570.9 XMSM 5 5 13281.4 890.1 13138.0 830.6 XMSW 5 5 26256.4 4009.4 25675.8 3565.0 XMGS 5 5 1681.2 147.7 1555.6 28.3727 MMSC 5 5 4543.1 1024.4 4488.8 1129.0 MMSIND 5 5 3527.0 311.9 3825.0 356.8 MMSP 5 5 1608.7 144.2 1483.2 108.2 MMSW 5 5 26202.4 3437.8 26320.6 3945.3 Lampiran 9. Program Simulasi Historis Peningkatan Penawaran Minyak Sawit Domestik Sebesar 25 Persen PROGRAM SIMULASI_HISTORIS OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA SIMULASI_HISTORIS; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; SIMULASI PENINGKATAN PENAWARAN MINYAK SAWIT DOMESTIK SEBESAR 25 PERSEN SMSD=1.25SMSD; RUN; Lampiran 9. Lanjutan PROC SIMNLIN DATA= SIMULASI_HISTORIS DYNAMIC SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL OUT=A ; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW PHRMMW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI SMSD ; L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; PARM A0 731.0415 A1 0.134501 A2 -0.11378 A3 -0.03228 A4 -5.72475 A5 -0.06520 A6 -2.64737 A7 42.25342 B0 21.05198 B1 0.010901 B2 -0.00264 B3 -0.04265 B4 -0.00957 B5 -0.09085 B6 14.51194 C0 320.1631 C1 0.016473 C2 -0.01228 C3 -0.00954 C4 -1.17485 C5 -0.00138 C6 -0.75474 C7 7.719496 D0 23.64347 D1 0.001029 D2 -0.00081 D3 -0.00446 D4 -0.00104 D5 -0.00913 D6 1.877661 E0 109.1232 E1 0.150833 E2 -0.05408 E3 -0.19023 E4 -0.03752 E5 -0.04666 E6 76.43873 F0 182.8267 F1 0.057925 F2 -0.48394 F3 -0.02139 F4 -0.52938 F5 35.35273 G0 3.020529 G1 0.193849 G2 0.000316 G3 -0.00034 H0 2.142651 H1 0.092637 H2 0.000525 H3 -0.00007 H4 0.107587 I0 1.375788 I1 0.151039 I2 0.000324 I3 -0.00023 I4 0.677464 J0 1.403913 J1 0.277171 J2 0.008292 J3 -0.00040 J4 0.011875 J5 0.488330 K0 1.512447 K1 0.077920 K2 0.000043 K3 0.512703 Lampiran 9. Lanjutan L0 2.568283 L1 0.000166 L2 0.001385 L3 -0.00086 L4 0.096688 M0 -1234.55 M1 1.119779 M2 0.565429 M3 0.079759 M4 0.219529 N0 -1365.99 N1 -0.31981 N2 0.525389 N3 -6.96387 N4 103.3167 N5 0.464863 O0 1400.728 O1 -0.00922 O2 0.183806 O3 0.638918 O4 -0.10846 O5 -22.6230 O6 14.48417 O7 0.050579 P0 429.1900 P1 -0.02815 P2 0.588235 P3 0.860154 P4 0.203342 Q0 -57.7283 Q1 0.873691 Q2 0.053221 Q3 -0.00092 Q4 -1.98794 Q5 0.168987 R0 -1467.23 R1 1.352876 R2 0.289920 R3 0.668988 R4 734.3466 R5 0.148848 S0 -1050.95 S1 -2.86442 S2 3.455280 S3 0.330337 S4 -14.5294 S5 0.181443 T0 -694.925 T1 -1.07752 T2 0.205179 T3 0.050203 T4 0.855156 U0 206.2166 U1 -1.05576 U2 0.742833 U3 0.000783 U4 -0.65759 U5 0.966606 V0 279.8991 V1 -0.00895 V2 0.007431 V3 0.496797 W0 -5591.99 W1 1.687388 W2 -1.27330 W3 309.2388 W4 0.190226 X0 -642.055 X1 1.096729 X2 -0.06113 X3 0.099493 X4 0.067756 X5 0.711027 Y0 402.6444 Y1 -0.30884 Y2 0.219999 Y3 0.036703 Y4 0.523212 Z0 2193.248 Z1 0.054764 Z2 2.520597 Z3 20.50587 Z4 0.059529 AA0 -19.3125 AA1 0.972813 AA2 -0.01548; LAKSMRS= A0 + A1L3HRMSD + A2L3HRMKD + A3L3HRKD + A4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + A5LUPRBUN + A6LSBR + A7TREN ; LAKSMRK= B0 + B1L3HRMSD + B2L3HRKD + B3LHRF + B4LUPRBUN + B5LSBR + B6TREN ; LAKSMNS= C0 + C1L3HRMSD + C2L3HRMKD + C3L3HRKD + C4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + C5LUPRBUN + C6LSBR + C7TREN ; LAKSMNK= D0 + D1L3HRMSD + D2L3HRKD + D3LHRF + D4UPRBUN + D5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + D6TREN ; LAKSMSS= E0 + E1L3HRMSD + E2L3HRKD + E3LHRF + E4LUPRBUN + E5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + E6TREN ; LAKSMSK= F0 + F1L3HRMSD + F2LHRF + F3LUPRBUN + F4SBR + F5TREN ; YMSRS= G0 + G1HRMSDHRF + G2LLAKSMRS + G3CURAH ; YMSRK= H0 + H1HRMSDHRF + H2LLAKSMRK + H3LUPRBUN + H4LYMSRK ; YMSNS= I0 + I1HRMSDHRF + I2LLAKSMNS + I3CURAH + I4LYMSNS ; YMSNK= J0 + J1HRMSDHRF + J2LLAKSMNK + J3CURAH + J4TREN + J5LYMSNK ; YMSSS= K0 + K1HRMSDHRF + K2LLAKSMSS + K3LYMSSS ; YMSSK= L0 + L1LHRMSD + L2LLAKSMSK + L3CURAH + L4TREN ; XMSI= M0 + M1HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100 + M2QMSI + M3LNTERI + M4LXMSI ; DMSIMG= N0 + N1HRMSD + N2HRMGSD + N3SBR + N4TREN + N5LDMSIMG ; DMSIL= O0 + O1HRMSD + O2HRMKD + O3HRMMW + O4LUPRIN + O5SBR + O6TREN + O7LDMSIL ; HRMSD= P0 + P1SMSD + P2DMSD + P3HRXMSI + P4LHRMSD ; HRXMSI= Q0 + Q1HRMSW + Q2HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100 + Q3XMSI+ Q4PXMSI + Q5LHRXMSI; XMSM= R0 + R1HRXMSM-LHRXMSM+ R2HRMKW-LHRMKW+ R3QMSM + R4NTERM + R5LXMSM ; MMSC= S0 + S1HRMSW + S2HRMKDW + S3INCRC + S4NTERC + S5LMMSC ; MMSIND= T0 + T1HRMSW-LHRMSW+ T2LHRMKDW + T3INCRIND + T4LMMSIND ; MMSP= U0 + U1HRMSW + U2HRMKDW + U3INCRP + U4LNTERP + U5LMMSP ; HRMSW= V0 + V1XMSW + V2MMSW + V3LHRMSW ; QMGS= W0 + W1LHRMGSD + W2LHRMSD + W3TREN + W4LQMGS ; XMGS= X0 + X1LHRXMGSI + X2HRMGSD + X3QMGS + X4LNTERI + X5LXMGS ; DMGS= Y0 + Y1HRMGSD + Y2HRMGKD + Y3INCRI + Y4LDMGS ; HRMGSD= Z0 + Z1DMGS-SMGS + Z2HRXMGSI + Z3TREN + Z4LHRMGSD ; HRXMGSI= AA0+ AA1HRMGSW + AA2XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100 ; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD= QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW= XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; id tahun; RANGE TAHUN= 2003 TO 2007; proc print data=a; RUN; Lampiran 10. Hasil Simulasi Historis Peningkatan Penawaran Minyak Sawit Domestik Sebesar 25 Persen The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 38 Endogenous 38 Parameters 153 Range Variable Tahun ID Variables 1 Equations 38 Number of Statements 74 Program Lag Length 3 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= SIMULASI_HISTORIS OUT= A Solution Summary Variables Solved 38 Simulation Lag Length 3 Solution Range Tahun First 2003 Last 2007 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 2.07E-16 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 10 Average Iterations 2 Observations Processed Read 8 Lagged 3 Solved 5 First 20 Last 24 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2003 To 2007 Lampiran 10. Lanjutan Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAKSMRS 5 5 1354.0 218.9 1335.3 118.5 LAKSMRK 5 5 251.0 38.3940 247.1 31.7109 LAKSMNS 5 5 476.4 42.9434 473.7 18.4905 LAKSMNK 5 5 55.3322 7.7216 54.6745 5.7605 LAKSMSS 5 5 1564.0 191.2 1548.9 157.2 LAKSMSK 5 5 438.8 178.3 445.0 119.3 YMSRS 5 5 2.9647 0.3193 2.9937 0.1251 YMSRK 5 5 2.3529 0.2470 2.2939 0.1013 YMSNS 5 5 3.7460 0.2740 3.7204 0.2411 YMSNK 5 5 3.0364 0.5428 3.1888 0.3909 YMSSS 5 5 3.7288 0.3035 3.5940 0.1520 YMSSK 5 5 3.3415 0.1146 3.1846 0.3078 QMSRS 5 5 4054.8 1029.3 4009.2 510.9 QMSRK 5 5 595.9 142.0 569.5 97.7465 QMSNS 5 5 1782.1 176.7 1765.0 170.8 QMSNK 5 5 168.8 39.6422 175.7 36.1074 QMSSS 5 5 5872.8 1113.2 5585.4 785.1 QMSSK 5 5 1478.3 632.6 1445.8 515.5 QMSI 5 5 14480.5 3136.7 14078.4 2223.1 QMGS 5 5 4924.6 1523.4 4278.7 327.8 DMSIMG 5 5 3269.8 217.8 3297.2 218.6 DMSIL 5 5 305.8 150.7 360.4 99.9938 DMSD 5 5 3575.6 359.5 3657.6 270.7 DMGS 5 5 1005.8 23.0797 1029.5 86.1086 SMGS 5 5 3243.4 1524.1 2716.2 313.1 HRMSD 5 5 3198.6 443.4 3292.1 109.1 HRXMSI 5 5 376.5 86.7051 398.3 22.2268 HRMSW 5 5 454.5 110.1 466.6 20.3754 HRMGSD 5 5 3786.6 593.7 3785.9 52.6889 HRXMGSI 5 5 402.5 20.4545 397.3 21.3833 XMSI 5 5 9554.2 2105.8 9087.8 1545.5 XMSM 5 5 13281.4 890.1 13138.0 830.6 XMSW 5 5 26256.4 4009.4 25646.6 3538.2 XMGS 5 5 1681.2 147.7 1562.6 29.8897 MMSC 5 5 4543.1 1024.4 4487.8 1128.0 MMSIND 5 5 3527.0 311.9 3824.7 356.5 MMSP 5 5 1608.7 144.2 1482.6 107.5 MMSW 5 5 26202.4 3437.8 26318.6 3943.4 Lampiran 11. Program Simulasi Peramalan Penetapan Pajak Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia Sebesar 20 Persen PROGRAM SIMULASI PERAMALAN OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA SIMULASI_PERAMALAN; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; SIMULASI PENETAPAN PAJAK EKSPOR MINYAK SAWIT INDONESIA SEBESAR 20 PERSEN PXMSI=20; RUN; Lampiran 11. Lanjutan PROC SIMNLIN DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN DYNAMIC SIMULATE STATS; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW PHRMMW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI ; L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; PARM A0 731.0415 A1 0.134501 A2 -0.11378 A3 -0.03228 A4 -5.72475 A5 -0.06520 A6 -2.64737 A7 42.25342 B0 21.05198 B1 0.010901 B2 -0.00264 B3 -0.04265 B4 -0.00957 B5 -0.09085 B6 14.51194 C0 320.1631 C1 0.016473 C2 -0.01228 C3 -0.00954 C4 -1.17485 C5 -0.00138 C6 -0.75474 C7 7.719496 D0 23.64347 D1 0.001029 D2 -0.00081 D3 -0.00446 D4 -0.00104 D5 -0.00913 D6 1.877661 E0 109.1232 E1 0.150833 E2 -0.05408 E3 -0.19023 E4 -0.03752 E5 -0.04666 E6 76.43873 F0 182.8267 F1 0.057925 F2 -0.48394 F3 -0.02139 F4 -0.52938 F5 35.35273 G0 3.020529 G1 0.193849 G2 0.000316 G3 -0.00034 H0 2.142651 H1 0.092637 H2 0.000525 H3 -0.00007 H4 0.107587 I0 1.375788 I1 0.151039 I2 0.000324 I3 -0.00023 I4 0.677464 J0 1.403913 J1 0.277171 J2 0.008292 J3 -0.00040 J4 0.011875 J5 0.488330 K0 1.512447 K1 0.077920 K2 0.000043 K3 0.512703 L0 2.568283 L1 0.000166 L2 0.001385 L3 -0.00086 L4 0.096688 Lampiran 11. Lanjutan M0 -1234.55 M1 1.119779 M2 0.565429 M3 0.079759 M4 0.219529 N0 -1365.99 N1 -0.31981 N2 0.525389 N3 -6.96387 N4 103.3167 N5 0.464863 O0 1400.728 O1 -0.00922 O2 0.183806 O3 0.638918 O4 -0.10846 O5 -22.6230 O6 14.48417 O7 0.050579 P0 429.1900 P1 -0.02815 P2 0.588235 P3 0.860154 P4 0.203342 Q0 -57.7283 Q1 0.873691 Q2 0.053221 Q3 -0.00092 Q4 -1.98794 Q5 0.168987 R0 -1467.23 R1 1.352876 R2 0.289920 R3 0.668988 R4 734.3466 R5 0.148848 S0 -1050.95 S1 -2.86442 S2 3.455280 S3 0.330337 S4 -14.5294 S5 0.181443 T0 -694.925 T1 -1.07752 T2 0.205179 T3 0.050203 T4 0.855156 U0 206.2166 U1 -1.05576 U2 0.742833 U3 0.000783 U4 -0.65759 U5 0.966606 V0 279.8991 V1 -0.00895 V2 0.007431 V3 0.496797 W0 -5591.99 W1 1.687388 W2 -1.27330 W3 309.2388 W4 0.190226 X0 -642.055 X1 1.096729 X2 -0.06113 X3 0.099493 X4 0.067756 X5 0.711027 Y0 402.6444 Y1 -0.30884 Y2 0.219999 Y3 0.036703 Y4 0.523212 Z0 2193.248 Z1 0.054764 Z2 2.520597 Z3 20.50587 Z4 0.059529 AA0 -19.3125 AA1 0.972813 AA2 -0.01548; LAKSMRS= A0 + A1L3HRMSD + A2L3HRMKD + A3L3HRKD + A4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + A5LUPRBUN + A6LSBR + A7TREN ; LAKSMRK= B0 + B1L3HRMSD + B2L3HRKD + B3LHRF + B4LUPRBUN + B5LSBR + B6TREN ; LAKSMNS= C0 + C1L3HRMSD + C2L3HRMKD + C3L3HRKD + C4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + C5LUPRBUN + C6LSBR + C7TREN ; LAKSMNK= D0 + D1L3HRMSD + D2L3HRKD + D3LHRF + D4UPRBUN + D5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + D6TREN ; LAKSMSS= E0 + E1L3HRMSD + E2L3HRKD + E3LHRF + E4LUPRBUN + E5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + E6TREN ; LAKSMSK= F0 + F1L3HRMSD + F2LHRF + F3LUPRBUN + F4SBR + F5TREN ; YMSRS= G0 + G1HRMSDHRF + G2LLAKSMRS + G3CURAH ; YMSRK= H0 + H1HRMSDHRF + H2LLAKSMRK + H3LUPRBUN + H4LYMSRK ; YMSNS= I0 + I1HRMSDHRF + I2LLAKSMNS + I3CURAH + I4LYMSNS ; YMSNK= J0 + J1HRMSDHRF + J2LLAKSMNK + J3CURAH + J4TREN + J5LYMSNK ; YMSSS= K0 + K1HRMSDHRF + K2LLAKSMSS + K3LYMSSS ; YMSSK= L0 + L1LHRMSD + L2LLAKSMSK + L3CURAH + L4TREN ; XMSI= M0 + M1HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100 + M2QMSI + M3LNTERI + M4LXMSI ; DMSIMG= N0 + N1HRMSD + N2HRMGSD + N3SBR + N4TREN + N5LDMSIMG ; DMSIL= O0 + O1HRMSD + O2HRMKD + O3HRMMW + O4LUPRIN + O5SBR + O6TREN + O7LDMSIL ; HRMSD= P0 + P1SMSD + P2DMSD + P3HRXMSI + P4LHRMSD ; HRXMSI= Q0 + Q1HRMSW + Q2HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100 + Q3XMSI+ Q4PXMSI + Q5LHRXMSI; XMSM= R0 + R1HRXMSM-LHRXMSM+ R2HRMKW-LHRMKW+ R3QMSM + R4NTERM + R5LXMSM ; MMSC= S0 + S1HRMSW + S2HRMKDW + S3INCRC + S4NTERC + S5LMMSC ; MMSIND= T0 + T1HRMSW-LHRMSW+ T2LHRMKDW + T3INCRIND + T4LMMSIND ; MMSP= U0 + U1HRMSW + U2HRMKDW + U3INCRP + U4LNTERP + U5LMMSP ; HRMSW= V0 + V1XMSW + V2MMSW + V3LHRMSW ; QMGS= W0 + W1LHRMGSD + W2LHRMSD + W3TREN + W4LQMGS ; XMGS= X0 + X1LHRXMGSI + X2HRMGSD + X3QMGS + X4LNTERI + X5LXMGS ; DMGS= Y0 + Y1HRMGSD + Y2HRMGKD + Y3INCRI + Y4LDMGS ; HRMGSD= Z0 + Z1DMGS-SMGS + Z2HRXMGSI + Z3TREN + Z4LHRMGSD ; HRXMGSI= AA0+ AA1HRMGSW + AA2XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100 ; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD= QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW= XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; RANGE TAHUN= 2012 TO 2016; RUN; Lampiran 12. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Penetapan Pajak Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia Sebesar 20 Persen The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 39 Endogenous 39 Parameters 153 Range Variable Tahun Equations 39 Number of Statements 75 Program Lag Length 3 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN Solution Summary Variables Solved 39 Simulation Lag Length 3 Solution Range Tahun First 2012 Last 2016 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 1.512E-9 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 7 Average Iterations 1.4 Observations Processed Read 8 Lagged 3 Solved 5 First 29 Last 33 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2016 Lampiran 12. Lanjutan Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAKSMRS 5 5 1797.1 116.2 1796.1 115.0 LAKSMRK 5 5 366.7 21.9566 366.7 21.8610 LAKSMNS 5 5 546.7 18.0261 546.6 17.8837 LAKSMNK 5 5 67.0939 2.9269 67.0866 2.9179 LAKSMSS 5 5 2185.1 126.3 2184.0 125.0 LAKSMSK 5 5 653.4 31.5528 653.0 31.0350 YMSRS 5 5 2.9278 0.00407 2.9252 0.00378 YMSRK 5 5 2.3159 0.0128 2.3146 0.0127 YMSNS 5 5 3.7336 0.0726 3.7297 0.0740 YMSNK 5 5 3.3243 0.0144 3.3186 0.0160 YMSSS 5 5 3.7175 0.00457 3.7158 0.00504 YMSSK 5 5 4.1672 0.1433 4.1644 0.1417 QMSRS 5 5 5262.0 347.4 5254.4 343.2 QMSRK 5 5 849.5 55.5204 848.9 55.2285 QMSNS 5 5 2040.0 27.7633 2037.5 26.4082 QMSNK 5 5 223.0 8.9011 222.6 8.7611 QMSSS 5 5 8122.7 462.6 8115.0 456.5 QMSSK 5 5 2726.4 225.5 2722.8 222.2 QMSI 5 5 19934.6 1163.5 19912.1 1148.0 QMGS 5 5 6090.8 342.5 6111.7 353.0 DMSIMG 5 5 4405.9 204.8 4414.5 206.8 DMSIL 5 5 154.5 37.2615 154.7 37.2455 DMSD 5 5 4560.4 167.9 4569.2 169.8 DMGS 5 5 1233.4 31.2730 1233.8 31.5675 SMSD 5 5 12268.4 395.4 12262.7 388.5 SMGS 5 5 4114.0 258.7 4131.0 266.3 HRMSD 5 5 3848.1 91.1041 3829.2 89.9271 HRXMSI 5 5 361.7 17.7385 337.0 19.1651 HRMSW 5 5 443.0 15.6329 443.2 15.5194 HRMGSD 5 5 3404.2 55.6752 3403.3 56.1088 HRXMGSI 5 5 209.6 28.7062 209.6 28.7064 XMSI 5 5 13617.3 859.5 13600.5 851.1 XMSM 5 5 16909.8 759.9 16909.8 759.9 XMSW 5 5 34294.7 1745.2 34278.0 1736.8 XMGS 5 5 1976.8 83.8057 1980.7 86.6788 MMSC 5 5 5317.2 190.0 5316.5 189.6 MMSIND 5 5 5584.7 319.1 5584.5 319.0 MMSP 5 5 1216.4 75.0503 1216.0 75.4102 MMSW 5 5 32929.3 1150.7 32928.0 1149.8 Lampiran 13. Program Simulasi Peramalan Peningkatan Penawaran Minyak Sawit Domestik Sebesar 50 Persen PROGRAM SIMULASI PERAMALAN OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA SIMULASI_PERAMALAN; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; SIMULASI PENINGKATAN PENAWARAN MINYAK SAWIT DOMESTIK SEBESAR 50 PERSEN SMSD=1.5SMSD; RUN; Lampiran 13. Lanjutan PROC SIMNLIN DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN DYNAMIC SIMULATE STATS; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW PHRMMW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI SMSD ; L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; PARM A0 731.0415 A1 0.134501 A2 -0.11378 A3 -0.03228 A4 -5.72475 A5 -0.06520 A6 -2.64737 A7 42.25342 B0 21.05198 B1 0.010901 B2 -0.00264 B3 -0.04265 B4 -0.00957 B5 -0.09085 B6 14.51194 C0 320.1631 C1 0.016473 C2 -0.01228 C3 -0.00954 C4 -1.17485 C5 -0.00138 C6 -0.75474 C7 7.719496 D0 23.64347 D1 0.001029 D2 -0.00081 D3 -0.00446 D4 -0.00104 D5 -0.00913 D6 1.877661 E0 109.1232 E1 0.150833 E2 -0.05408 E3 -0.19023 E4 -0.03752 E5 -0.04666 E6 76.43873 F0 182.8267 F1 0.057925 F2 -0.48394 F3 -0.02139 F4 -0.52938 F5 35.35273 G0 3.020529 G1 0.193849 G2 0.000316 G3 -0.00034 H0 2.142651 H1 0.092637 H2 0.000525 H3 -0.00007 H4 0.107587 I0 1.375788 I1 0.151039 I2 0.000324 I3 -0.00023 I4 0.677464 J0 1.403913 J1 0.277171 J2 0.008292 J3 -0.00040 J4 0.011875 J5 0.488330 K0 1.512447 K1 0.077920 K2 0.000043 K3 0.512703 L0 2.568283 L1 0.000166 L2 0.001385 L3 -0.00086 L4 0.096688 Lampiran 13. Lanjutan M0 -1234.55 M1 1.119779 M2 0.565429 M3 0.079759 M4 0.219529 N0 -1365.99 N1 -0.31981 N2 0.525389 N3 -6.96387 N4 103.3167 N5 0.464863 O0 1400.728 O1 -0.00922 O2 0.183806 O3 0.638918 O4 -0.10846 O5 -22.6230 O6 14.48417 O7 0.050579 P0 429.1900 P1 -0.02815 P2 0.588235 P3 0.860154 P4 0.203342 Q0 -57.7283 Q1 0.873691 Q2 0.053221 Q3 -0.00092 Q4 -1.98794 Q5 0.168987 R0 -1467.23 R1 1.352876 R2 0.289920 R3 0.668988 R4 734.3466 R5 0.148848 S0 -1050.95 S1 -2.86442 S2 3.455280 S3 0.330337 S4 -14.5294 S5 0.181443 T0 -694.925 T1 -1.07752 T2 0.205179 T3 0.050203 T4 0.855156 U0 206.2166 U1 -1.05576 U2 0.742833 U3 0.000783 U4 -0.65759 U5 0.966606 V0 279.8991 V1 -0.00895 V2 0.007431 V3 0.496797 W0 -5591.99 W1 1.687388 W2 -1.27330 W3 309.2388 W4 0.190226 X0 -642.055 X1 1.096729 X2 -0.06113 X3 0.099493 X4 0.067756 X5 0.711027 Y0 402.6444 Y1 -0.30884 Y2 0.219999 Y3 0.036703 Y4 0.523212 Z0 2193.248 Z1 0.054764 Z2 2.520597 Z3 20.50587 Z4 0.059529 AA0 -19.3125 AA1 0.972813 AA2 -0.01548; LAKSMRS= A0 + A1L3HRMSD + A2L3HRMKD + A3L3HRKD + A4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + A5LUPRBUN + A6LSBR + A7TREN ; LAKSMRK= B0 + B1L3HRMSD + B2L3HRKD + B3LHRF + B4LUPRBUN + B5LSBR + B6TREN ; LAKSMNS= C0 + C1L3HRMSD + C2L3HRMKD + C3L3HRKD + C4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + C5LUPRBUN + C6LSBR + C7TREN ; LAKSMNK= D0 + D1L3HRMSD + D2L3HRKD + D3LHRF + D4UPRBUN + D5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + D6TREN ; LAKSMSS= E0 + E1L3HRMSD + E2L3HRKD + E3LHRF + E4LUPRBUN + E5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + E6TREN ; LAKSMSK= F0 + F1L3HRMSD + F2LHRF + F3LUPRBUN + F4SBR + F5TREN ; YMSRS= G0 + G1HRMSDHRF + G2LLAKSMRS + G3CURAH ; YMSRK= H0 + H1HRMSDHRF + H2LLAKSMRK + H3LUPRBUN + H4LYMSRK ; YMSNS= I0 + I1HRMSDHRF + I2LLAKSMNS + I3CURAH + I4LYMSNS ; YMSNK= J0 + J1HRMSDHRF + J2LLAKSMNK + J3CURAH + J4TREN + J5LYMSNK ; YMSSS= K0 + K1HRMSDHRF + K2LLAKSMSS + K3LYMSSS ; YMSSK= L0 + L1LHRMSD + L2LLAKSMSK + L3CURAH + L4TREN ; XMSI= M0 + M1HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100 + M2QMSI + M3LNTERI + M4LXMSI ; DMSIMG= N0 + N1HRMSD + N2HRMGSD + N3SBR + N4TREN + N5LDMSIMG ; DMSIL= O0 + O1HRMSD + O2HRMKD + O3HRMMW + O4LUPRIN + O5SBR + O6TREN + O7LDMSIL ; HRMSD= P0 + P1SMSD + P2DMSD + P3HRXMSI + P4LHRMSD ; HRXMSI= Q0 + Q1HRMSW + Q2HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100 + Q3XMSI+ Q4PXMSI + Q5LHRXMSI; XMSM= R0 + R1HRXMSM-LHRXMSM+ R2HRMKW-LHRMKW+ R3QMSM + R4NTERM + R5LXMSM ; MMSC= S0 + S1HRMSW + S2HRMKDW + S3INCRC + S4NTERC + S5LMMSC ; MMSIND= T0 + T1HRMSW-LHRMSW+ T2LHRMKDW + T3INCRIND + T4LMMSIND ; MMSP= U0 + U1HRMSW + U2HRMKDW + U3INCRP + U4LNTERP + U5LMMSP ; HRMSW= V0 + V1XMSW + V2MMSW + V3LHRMSW ; QMGS= W0 + W1LHRMGSD + W2LHRMSD + W3TREN + W4LQMGS ; XMGS= X0 + X1LHRXMGSI + X2HRMGSD + X3QMGS + X4LNTERI + X5LXMGS ; DMGS= Y0 + Y1HRMGSD + Y2HRMGKD + Y3INCRI + Y4LDMGS ; HRMGSD= Z0 + Z1DMGS-SMGS + Z2HRXMGSI + Z3TREN + Z4LHRMGSD ; HRXMGSI= AA0+ AA1HRMGSW + AA2XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100 ; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD= QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW= XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; RANGE TAHUN= 2012 TO 2016; RUN; Lampiran 14. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Peningkatan Penawaran Minyak Sawit Domestik Sebesar 50 Persen The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 38 Endogenous 38 Parameters 153 Range Variable Tahun Equations 38 Number of Statements 74 Program Lag Length 3 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN Solution Summary Variables Solved 38 Simulation Lag Length 3 Solution Range Tahun First 2012 Last 2016 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 5.152E-9 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 9 Average Iterations 1.8 Observations Processed Read 8 Lagged 3 Solved 5 First 29 Last 33 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2016 Lampiran 14. Lanjutan Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAKSMRS 5 5 1797.1 116.2 1789.1 106.8 LAKSMRK 5 5 366.7 21.9566 366.1 21.1764 LAKSMNS 5 5 546.7 18.0261 545.7 16.8673 LAKSMNK 5 5 67.0939 2.9269 67.0330 2.8534 LAKSMSS 5 5 2185.1 126.3 2176.1 115.7 LAKSMSK 5 5 653.4 31.5528 650.0 27.3812 YMSRS 5 5 2.9278 0.00407 2.9061 0.00261 YMSRK 5 5 2.3159 0.0128 2.3050 0.0123 YMSNS 5 5 3.7336 0.0726 3.7017 0.0835 YMSNK 5 5 3.3243 0.0144 3.2773 0.0259 YMSSS 5 5 3.7175 0.00457 3.7038 0.00802 YMSSK 5 5 4.1672 0.1433 4.1447 0.1311 QMSRS 5 5 5262.0 347.4 5199.6 313.8 QMSRK 5 5 849.5 55.5204 844.0 53.2169 QMSNS 5 5 2040.0 27.7633 2018.9 17.1914 QMSNK 5 5 223.0 8.9011 219.6 7.8341 QMSSS 5 5 8122.7 462.6 8059.4 413.8 QMSSK 5 5 2726.4 225.5 2696.8 198.9 QMSI 5 5 19934.6 1163.5 19749.3 1040.1 QMGS 5 5 6090.8 342.5 6260.2 424.8 DMSIMG 5 5 4405.9 204.8 4476.0 219.4 DMSIL 5 5 154.5 37.2615 156.0 37.1694 DMSD 5 5 4560.4 167.9 4632.0 182.4 DMGS 5 5 1233.4 31.2730 1237.1 33.5672 SMGS 5 5 4114.0 258.7 4251.7 319.2 HRMSD 5 5 3848.1 91.1041 3694.0 84.6824 HRXMSI 5 5 361.7 17.7385 363.1 16.5972 HRMSW 5 5 443.0 15.6329 444.4 14.5673 HRMGSD 5 5 3404.2 55.6752 3396.5 58.9810 HRXMGSI 5 5 209.6 28.7062 209.6 28.7071 XMSI 5 5 13617.3 859.5 13496.8 775.1 XMSM 5 5 16909.8 759.9 16909.8 759.9 XMSW 5 5 34294.7 1745.2 34174.2 1660.8 XMGS 5 5 1976.8 83.8057 2008.6 106.6 MMSC 5 5 5317.2 190.0 5312.7 186.4 MMSIND 5 5 5584.7 319.1 5583.4 318.2 MMSP 5 5 1216.4 75.0503 1213.5 77.7097 MMSW 5 5 32929.3 1150.7 32920.5 1143.4 Lampiran 15. Program Simulasi Peramalan Pelarangan Ekspor Minyak Sawit PROGRAM SIMULASI PERAMALAN OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA SIMULASI_PERAMALAN; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; SIMULASI PELARANGAN EKSPOR MINYAK SAWIT XMSI=0; RUN; Lampiran 15. Lanjutan PROC SIMNLIN DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN DYNAMIC SIMULATE STATS; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW PHRMMW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI XMSI ; L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; PARM A0 731.0415 A1 0.134501 A2 -0.11378 A3 -0.03228 A4 -5.72475 A5 -0.06520 A6 -2.64737 A7 42.25342 B0 21.05198 B1 0.010901 B2 -0.00264 B3 -0.04265 B4 -0.00957 B5 -0.09085 B6 14.51194 C0 320.1631 C1 0.016473 C2 -0.01228 C3 -0.00954 C4 -1.17485 C5 -0.00138 C6 -0.75474 C7 7.719496 D0 23.64347 D1 0.001029 D2 -0.00081 D3 -0.00446 D4 -0.00104 D5 -0.00913 D6 1.877661 E0 109.1232 E1 0.150833 E2 -0.05408 E3 -0.19023 E4 -0.03752 E5 -0.04666 E6 76.43873 F0 182.8267 F1 0.057925 F2 -0.48394 F3 -0.02139 F4 -0.52938 F5 35.35273 G0 3.020529 G1 0.193849 G2 0.000316 G3 -0.00034 H0 2.142651 H1 0.092637 H2 0.000525 H3 -0.00007 H4 0.107587 I0 1.375788 I1 0.151039 I2 0.000324 I3 -0.00023 I4 0.677464 J0 1.403913 J1 0.277171 J2 0.008292 J3 -0.00040 J4 0.011875 J5 0.488330 K0 1.512447 K1 0.077920 K2 0.000043 K3 0.512703 L0 2.568283 L1 0.000166 L2 0.001385 L3 -0.00086 L4 0.096688 Lampiran 15. Lanjutan M0 -1234.55 M1 1.119779 M2 0.565429 M3 0.079759 M4 0.219529 N0 -1365.99 N1 -0.31981 N2 0.525389 N3 -6.96387 N4 103.3167 N5 0.464863 O0 1400.728 O1 -0.00922 O2 0.183806 O3 0.638918 O4 -0.10846 O5 -22.6230 O6 14.48417 O7 0.050579 P0 429.1900 P1 -0.02815 P2 0.588235 P3 0.860154 P4 0.203342 Q0 -57.7283 Q1 0.873691 Q2 0.053221 Q3 -0.00092 Q4 -1.98794 Q5 0.168987 R0 -1467.23 R1 1.352876 R2 0.289920 R3 0.668988 R4 734.3466 R5 0.148848 S0 -1050.95 S1 -2.86442 S2 3.455280 S3 0.330337 S4 -14.5294 S5 0.181443 T0 -694.925 T1 -1.07752 T2 0.205179 T3 0.050203 T4 0.855156 U0 206.2166 U1 -1.05576 U2 0.742833 U3 0.000783 U4 -0.65759 U5 0.966606 V0 279.8991 V1 -0.00895 V2 0.007431 V3 0.496797 W0 -5591.99 W1 1.687388 W2 -1.27330 W3 309.2388 W4 0.190226 X0 -642.055 X1 1.096729 X2 -0.06113 X3 0.099493 X4 0.067756 X5 0.711027 Y0 402.6444 Y1 -0.30884 Y2 0.219999 Y3 0.036703 Y4 0.523212 Z0 2193.248 Z1 0.054764 Z2 2.520597 Z3 20.50587 Z4 0.059529 AA0 -19.3125 AA1 0.972813 AA2 -0.01548; LAKSMRS= A0 + A1L3HRMSD + A2L3HRMKD + A3L3HRKD + A4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + A5LUPRBUN + A6LSBR + A7TREN ; LAKSMRK= B0 + B1L3HRMSD + B2L3HRKD + B3LHRF + B4LUPRBUN + B5LSBR + B6TREN ; LAKSMNS= C0 + C1L3HRMSD + C2L3HRMKD + C3L3HRKD + C4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + C5LUPRBUN + C6LSBR + C7TREN ; LAKSMNK= D0 + D1L3HRMSD + D2L3HRKD + D3LHRF + D4UPRBUN + D5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + D6TREN ; LAKSMSS= E0 + E1L3HRMSD + E2L3HRKD + E3LHRF + E4LUPRBUN + E5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + E6TREN ; LAKSMSK= F0 + F1L3HRMSD + F2LHRF + F3LUPRBUN + F4SBR + F5TREN ; YMSRS= G0 + G1HRMSDHRF + G2LLAKSMRS + G3CURAH ; YMSRK= H0 + H1HRMSDHRF + H2LLAKSMRK + H3LUPRBUN + H4LYMSRK ; YMSNS= I0 + I1HRMSDHRF + I2LLAKSMNS + I3CURAH + I4LYMSNS ; YMSNK= J0 + J1HRMSDHRF + J2LLAKSMNK + J3CURAH + J4TREN + J5LYMSNK ; YMSSS= K0 + K1HRMSDHRF + K2LLAKSMSS + K3LYMSSS ; YMSSK= L0 + L1LHRMSD + L2LLAKSMSK + L3CURAH + L4TREN ; XMSI= M0 + M1HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100 + M2QMSI + M3LNTERI + M4LXMSI ; DMSIMG= N0 + N1HRMSD + N2HRMGSD + N3SBR + N4TREN + N5LDMSIMG ; DMSIL= O0 + O1HRMSD + O2HRMKD + O3HRMMW + O4LUPRIN + O5SBR + O6TREN + O7LDMSIL ; HRMSD= P0 + P1SMSD + P2DMSD + P3HRXMSI + P4LHRMSD ; HRXMSI= Q0 + Q1HRMSW + Q2HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100 + Q3XMSI+ Q4PXMSI + Q5LHRXMSI; XMSM= R0 + R1HRXMSM-LHRXMSM+ R2HRMKW-LHRMKW+ R3QMSM + R4NTERM + R5LXMSM ; MMSC= S0 + S1HRMSW + S2HRMKDW + S3INCRC + S4NTERC + S5LMMSC ; MMSIND= T0 + T1HRMSW-LHRMSW+ T2LHRMKDW + T3INCRIND + T4LMMSIND ; MMSP= U0 + U1HRMSW + U2HRMKDW + U3INCRP + U4LNTERP + U5LMMSP ; HRMSW= V0 + V1XMSW + V2MMSW + V3LHRMSW ; QMGS= W0 + W1LHRMGSD + W2LHRMSD + W3TREN + W4LQMGS ; XMGS= X0 + X1LHRXMGSI + X2HRMGSD + X3QMGS + X4LNTERI + X5LXMGS ; DMGS= Y0 + Y1HRMGSD + Y2HRMGKD + Y3INCRI + Y4LDMGS ; HRMGSD= Z0 + Z1DMGS-SMGS + Z2HRXMGSI + Z3TREN + Z4LHRMGSD ; HRXMGSI= AA0+ AA1HRMGSW + AA2XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100 ; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD= QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW= XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; RANGE TAHUN= 2012 TO 2016; RUN; Lampiran 16. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Pelarangan Ekspor Minyak Sawit The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 38 Endogenous 38 Parameters 148 Range Variable Tahun Equations 38 Number of Statements 74 Program Lag Length 3 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN Solution Summary Variables Solved 38 Simulation Lag Length 3 Solution Range Tahun First 2012 Last 2016 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 8.06E-9 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 9 Average Iterations 1.8 Observations Processed Read 8 Lagged 3 Solved 5 First 29 Last 33 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2016 Lampiran 16. Lanjutan Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAKSMRS 5 5 1797.1 116.2 1785.7 103.3 LAKSMRK 5 5 366.7 21.9566 365.8 20.8810 LAKSMNS 5 5 546.7 18.0261 545.3 16.4341 LAKSMNK 5 5 67.0939 2.9269 67.0071 2.8254 LAKSMSS 5 5 2185.1 126.3 2172.3 111.7 LAKSMSK 5 5 653.4 31.5528 648.5 25.8962 YMSRS 5 5 2.9278 0.00407 2.9008 0.00621 YMSRK 5 5 2.3159 0.0128 2.3024 0.0139 YMSNS 5 5 3.7336 0.0726 3.6929 0.0826 YMSNK 5 5 3.3243 0.0144 3.2651 0.0228 YMSSS 5 5 3.7175 0.00457 3.7002 0.00736 YMSSK 5 5 4.1672 0.1433 4.1380 0.1302 QMSRS 5 5 5262.0 347.4 5180.4 308.1 QMSRK 5 5 849.5 55.5204 842.5 53.1026 QMSNS 5 5 2040.0 27.7633 2012.6 16.2068 QMSNK 5 5 223.0 8.9011 218.7 8.0017 QMSSS 5 5 8122.7 462.6 8037.6 400.9 QMSSK 5 5 2726.4 225.5 2686.2 191.4 QMSI 5 5 19934.6 1163.5 19689.0 1012.6 QMGS 5 5 6090.8 342.5 6306.6 428.5 DMSIMG 5 5 4405.9 204.8 4493.2 211.9 DMSIL 5 5 154.5 37.2615 156.3 37.4317 DMSD 5 5 4560.4 167.9 4649.5 174.6 DMGS 5 5 1233.4 31.2730 1238.2 33.8596 SMSD 5 5 12268.4 395.4 25640.0 1099.3 SMGS 5 5 4114.0 258.7 4287.7 319.5 HRMSD 5 5 3848.1 91.1041 3659.6 112.2 HRXMSI 5 5 361.7 17.7385 555.7 39.6952 HRMSW 5 5 443.0 15.6329 622.8 30.9529 HRMGSD 5 5 3404.2 55.6752 3394.5 58.7293 HRXMGSI 5 5 209.6 28.7062 209.6 28.7051 XMSM 5 5 16909.8 759.9 16909.8 759.9 XMSW 5 5 34294.7 1745.2 20677.4 885.8 XMGS 5 5 1976.8 83.8057 2018.9 111.3 MMSC 5 5 5317.2 190.0 4722.0 67.5039 MMSIND 5 5 5584.7 319.1 5432.8 307.6 MMSP 5 5 1216.4 75.0503 725.0 386.2 MMSW 5 5 32929.3 1150.7 31690.7 657.8 Lampiran 17. Program Simulasi Peramalan Penetapan Kuota Ekspor Sebesar 40 dari Total Produksi Minyak Sawit PROGRAM SIMULASI PERAMALAN OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA SIMULASI_PERAMALAN; SET SASUSER.TESIS_5; MEMBUAT VARIABEL LAG L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSTL=QMSRL+QMSNL+QMSSL; QMSI=QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD=DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD=QMSI-XMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW=XMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW=MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS=QMGS-XMGS; SIMULASI PENETAPAN KUOTA EKSPOR SEBESAR 40 DARI TOTAL PRODUKSI MINYAK SAWIT XMSI=0.4QMSI; RUN; Lampiran 17. Lanjutan PROC SIMNLIN DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN DYNAMIC SIMULATE STATS; ENDOGENOUS LAKSMRS LAKSMRK LAKSMNS LAKSMNK LAKSMSS LAKSMSK YMSRS YMSRK YMSNS YMSNK YMSSS YMSSK QMSRS QMSRK QMSNS QMSNK QMSSS QMSSK QMSI QMGS DMSIMG DMSIL DMSD DMGS SMSD SMGS HRMSD HRXMSI HRMSW HRMGSD HRXMGSI XMSI XMSM XMSW XMGS MMSC MMSIND MMSP MMSW; INSTRUMENTS SBR TREN INCRI PHRF SHRXMSM RHMSF HRMMW HRMKD INCRC PSBR SHRMKW PXMGS PXMSI QMSM NTERM HRMKDW SHRMSW PHRMMW INCRIND CURAH HRMGKD INCRP QMSRL QMSNL QMSSL STKMS UPRBUN XMSRW MMSRW NTERC HRMGSW PHRXMSI XMSI ; L3HRMSD=LAG3HRMSD; L3HRMKD=LAG3HRMKD; L3HRKD=LAG3HRKD; LHRF=LAGHRF; LUPRBUN=LAGUPRBUN; LSBR=LAGSBR; LLAKSMRS=LAGLAKSMRS; LLAKSMRK=LAGLAKSMRK; LLAKSMNS=LAGLAKSMNS; LLAKSMNK=LAGLAKSMNK; LLAKSMSS=LAGLAKSMSS; LLAKSMSK=LAGLAKSMSK; LHRMSD=LAGHRMSD; LYMSRK=LAGYMSRK; LYMSNS=LAGYMSNS; LYMSNK=LAGYMSNK; LYMSSS=LAGYMSSS; LHRMGSD=LAGHRMGSD; LHRXMGSI=LAGHRXMGSI; LHRMKDW=LAGHRMKDW; LHRXMSI=LAGHRXMSI; LNTERI=LAGNTERI; LUPRIN=LAGUPRIN; LNTERP=LAGNTERP; LXMSI=LAGXMSI; LDMSIMG=LAGDMSIMG; LDMSIL=LAGDMSIL; LXMSM=LAGXMSM; LMMSC=LAGMMSC; LMMSIND=LAGMMSIND; LMMSP=LAGMMSP; LHRMSW=LAGHRMSW; LQMGS=LAGQMGS; LXMGS=LAGXMGS; LDMGS=LAGDMGS; LSTKMS=LAGSTKMS; PARM A0 731.0415 A1 0.134501 A2 -0.11378 A3 -0.03228 A4 -5.72475 A5 -0.06520 A6 -2.64737 A7 42.25342 B0 21.05198 B1 0.010901 B2 -0.00264 B3 -0.04265 B4 -0.00957 B5 -0.09085 B6 14.51194 C0 320.1631 C1 0.016473 C2 -0.01228 C3 -0.00954 C4 -1.17485 C5 -0.00138 C6 -0.75474 C7 7.719496 D0 23.64347 D1 0.001029 D2 -0.00081 D3 -0.00446 D4 -0.00104 D5 -0.00913 D6 1.877661 E0 109.1232 E1 0.150833 E2 -0.05408 E3 -0.19023 E4 -0.03752 E5 -0.04666 E6 76.43873 F0 182.8267 F1 0.057925 F2 -0.48394 F3 -0.02139 F4 -0.52938 F5 35.35273 G0 3.020529 G1 0.193849 G2 0.000316 G3 -0.00034 H0 2.142651 H1 0.092637 H2 0.000525 H3 -0.00007 H4 0.107587 I0 1.375788 I1 0.151039 I2 0.000324 I3 -0.00023 I4 0.677464 J0 1.403913 J1 0.277171 J2 0.008292 J3 -0.00040 J4 0.011875 J5 0.488330 K0 1.512447 K1 0.077920 K2 0.000043 K3 0.512703 L0 2.568283 L1 0.000166 L2 0.001385 L3 -0.00086 L4 0.096688 Lampiran 17. Lanjutan M0 -1234.55 M1 1.119779 M2 0.565429 M3 0.079759 M4 0.219529 N0 -1365.99 N1 -0.31981 N2 0.525389 N3 -6.96387 N4 103.3167 N5 0.464863 O0 1400.728 O1 -0.00922 O2 0.183806 O3 0.638918 O4 -0.10846 O5 -22.6230 O6 14.48417 O7 0.050579 P0 429.1900 P1 -0.02815 P2 0.588235 P3 0.860154 P4 0.203342 Q0 -57.7283 Q1 0.873691 Q2 0.053221 Q3 -0.00092 Q4 -1.98794 Q5 0.168987 R0 -1467.23 R1 1.352876 R2 0.289920 R3 0.668988 R4 734.3466 R5 0.148848 S0 -1050.95 S1 -2.86442 S2 3.455280 S3 0.330337 S4 -14.5294 S5 0.181443 T0 -694.925 T1 -1.07752 T2 0.205179 T3 0.050203 T4 0.855156 U0 206.2166 U1 -1.05576 U2 0.742833 U3 0.000783 U4 -0.65759 U5 0.966606 V0 279.8991 V1 -0.00895 V2 0.007431 V3 0.496797 W0 -5591.99 W1 1.687388 W2 -1.27330 W3 309.2388 W4 0.190226 X0 -642.055 X1 1.096729 X2 -0.06113 X3 0.099493 X4 0.067756 X5 0.711027 Y0 402.6444 Y1 -0.30884 Y2 0.219999 Y3 0.036703 Y4 0.523212 Z0 2193.248 Z1 0.054764 Z2 2.520597 Z3 20.50587 Z4 0.059529 AA0 -19.3125 AA1 0.972813 AA2 -0.01548; LAKSMRS= A0 + A1L3HRMSD + A2L3HRMKD + A3L3HRKD + A4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + A5LUPRBUN + A6LSBR + A7TREN ; LAKSMRK= B0 + B1L3HRMSD + B2L3HRKD + B3LHRF + B4LUPRBUN + B5LSBR + B6TREN ; LAKSMNS= C0 + C1L3HRMSD + C2L3HRMKD + C3L3HRKD + C4HRF-LHRFLHRF100 + C5LUPRBUN + C6LSBR + C7TREN ; LAKSMNK= D0 + D1L3HRMSD + D2L3HRKD + D3LHRF + D4UPRBUN + D5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + D6TREN ; LAKSMSS= E0 + E1L3HRMSD + E2L3HRKD + E3LHRF + E4LUPRBUN + E5SBR-LSBRLSBR100 + E6TREN ; LAKSMSK= F0 + F1L3HRMSD + F2LHRF + F3LUPRBUN + F4SBR + F5TREN ; YMSRS= G0 + G1HRMSDHRF + G2LLAKSMRS + G3CURAH ; YMSRK= H0 + H1HRMSDHRF + H2LLAKSMRK + H3LUPRBUN + H4LYMSRK ; YMSNS= I0 + I1HRMSDHRF + I2LLAKSMNS + I3CURAH + I4LYMSNS ; YMSNK= J0 + J1HRMSDHRF + J2LLAKSMNK + J3CURAH + J4TREN + J5LYMSNK ; YMSSS= K0 + K1HRMSDHRF + K2LLAKSMSS + K3LYMSSS ; YMSSK= L0 + L1LHRMSD + L2LLAKSMSK + L3CURAH + L4TREN ; XMSI= M0 + M1HRXMSI-LHRXMSILHRXMSI100 + M2QMSI + M3LNTERI + M4LXMSI ; DMSIMG= N0 + N1HRMSD + N2HRMGSD + N3SBR + N4TREN + N5LDMSIMG ; DMSIL= O0 + O1HRMSD + O2HRMKD + O3HRMMW + O4LUPRIN + O5SBR + O6TREN + O7LDMSIL ; HRMSD= P0 + P1SMSD + P2DMSD + P3HRXMSI + P4LHRMSD ; HRXMSI= Q0 + Q1HRMSW + Q2HRMMW-LHRMMWLHRMMW100 + Q30.4QMSI + Q4PXMSI + Q5LHRXMSI; XMSM= R0 + R1HRXMSM-LHRXMSM+ R2HRMKW-LHRMKW+ R3QMSM + R4NTERM + R5LXMSM ; MMSC= S0 + S1HRMSW + S2HRMKDW + S3INCRC + S4NTERC + S5LMMSC ; MMSIND= T0 + T1HRMSW-LHRMSW+ T2LHRMKDW + T3INCRIND + T4LMMSIND ; MMSP= U0 + U1HRMSW + U2HRMKDW + U3INCRP + U4LNTERP + U5LMMSP ; HRMSW= V0 + V1XMSW + V2MMSW + V3LHRMSW ; QMGS= W0 + W1LHRMGSD + W2LHRMSD + W3TREN + W4LQMGS ; XMGS= X0 + X1LHRXMGSI + X2HRMGSD + X3QMGS + X4LNTERI + X5LXMGS ; DMGS= Y0 + Y1HRMGSD + Y2HRMGKD + Y3INCRI + Y4LDMGS ; HRMGSD= Z0 + Z1DMGS-SMGS + Z2HRXMGSI + Z3TREN + Z4LHRMGSD ; HRXMGSI= AA0+ AA1HRMGSW + AA2XMGS-LXMGSLXMGS100 ; QMSRS =LAKSMRSYMSRS; QMSRK =LAKSMRKYMSRK; QMSNS =LAKSMNSYMSNS; QMSNK =LAKSMNKYMSNK; QMSSS =LAKSMSSYMSSS; QMSSK =LAKSMSKYMSSK; QMSI= QMSRS+QMSRK+QMSNS+QMSNK+QMSSS+QMSSK+QMSTL; DMSD= DMSIMG+DMSIL; SMSD= QMSI-0.4QMSI+MMSI+LSTKMS; XMSW= 0.4QMSI+XMSM+XMSRW; MMSW= MMSC+MMSIND+MMSP+MMSI+MMSRW; SMGS= QMGS-XMGS; RANGE TAHUN= 2012 TO 2016; RUN; Lampiran 18. Hasil Simulasi Peramalan Penetapan Kuota Ekspor Sebesar 40 dari Total Produksi Minyak Sawit The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 38 Endogenous 38 Parameters 148 Range Variable Tahun ID Variables 1 Equations 38 Number of Statements 74 Program Lag Length 3 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= SIMULASI_PERAMALAN OUT= A Solution Summary Variables Solved 38 Simulation Lag Length 3 Solution Range Tahun First 2012 Last 2016 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 6.493E-9 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 7 Average Iterations 1.4 Observations Processed Read 8 Lagged 3 Solved 5 First 29 Last 33 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2012 To 2016 Lampiran 18. Lanjutan Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev LAKSMRS 5 5 1797.1 116.2 1792.4 110.8 LAKSMRK 5 5 366.7 21.9566 366.4 21.5092 LAKSMNS 5 5 546.7 18.0261 546.1 17.3601 LAKSMNK 5 5 67.0939 2.9269 67.0580 2.8848 LAKSMSS 5 5 2185.1 126.3 2179.8 120.2 LAKSMSK 5 5 653.4 31.5528 651.4 29.1591 YMSRS 5 5 2.9278 0.00407 2.9165 0.00457 YMSRK 5 5 2.3159 0.0128 2.3103 0.0132 YMSNS 5 5 3.7336 0.0726 3.7166 0.0768 YMSNK 5 5 3.3243 0.0144 3.2996 0.0180 YMSSS 5 5 3.7175 0.00457 3.7103 0.00576 YMSSK 5 5 4.1672 0.1433 4.1551 0.1376 QMSRS 5 5 5262.0 347.4 5228.0 330.6 QMSRK 5 5 849.5 55.5204 846.6 54.4869 QMSNS 5 5 2040.0 27.7633 2028.6 22.7911 QMSNK 5 5 223.0 8.9011 221.2 8.5076 QMSSS 5 5 8122.7 462.6 8087.3 436.6 QMSSK 5 5 2726.4 225.5 2709.7 211.2 QMSI 5 5 19934.6 1163.5 19832.4 1099.7 QMGS 5 5 6090.8 342.5 6180.6 376.6 DMSIMG 5 5 4405.9 204.8 4442.4 208.1 DMSIL 5 5 154.5 37.2615 155.3 37.3224 DMSD 5 5 4560.4 167.9 4597.6 171.1 DMGS 5 5 1233.4 31.2730 1235.4 32.3520 SMSD 5 5 12268.4 395.4 17850.5 748.6 SMGS 5 5 4114.0 258.7 4186.4 281.8 HRMSD 5 5 3848.1 91.1041 3769.3 98.7979 HRXMSI 5 5 361.7 17.7385 442.5 7.9313 HRMSW 5 5 443.0 15.6329 517.9 5.7214 HRMGSD 5 5 3404.2 55.6752 3400.2 56.9343 HRXMGSI 5 5 209.6 28.7062 209.6 28.7058 XMSM 5 5 16909.8 759.9 16909.8 759.9 XMSW 5 5 34294.7 1745.2 28610.4 1325.6 XMGS 5 5 1976.8 83.8057 1994.3 95.2397 MMSC 5 5 5317.2 190.0 5069.3 119.3 MMSIND 5 5 5584.7 319.1 5521.3 313.5 MMSP 5 5 1216.4 75.0503 1012.4 204.9 MMSW 5 5 32929.3 1150.7 32414.0 941.2 ABSTRACT NOVINDRA. Impacts of Domestic Policies and External Factors on the Crude Palm Oil Producers’s and Consumer’s Welfare in Indonesia BONAR M. SINAGA as Chairman and D.S. PRIYARSONO as Member of the Advisory Committee. Besides its promising prospect in the world market, crude palm oil CPO in Indonesia plays an important role to fulfill the need of domestic downstream industries such as palm cooking oil, oleo chemical, margarine, soap, and biodiesel for their input procurements. Broad changes in the structure of regional and global economy will affect production, consumption, and trade of CPO and palm cooking oil in Indonesian. The objectives of this study are to analyze the affecting factors of supply and demand for CPO in domestic and world markets and to evaluate 2003-2007 and to forecast 2012-2016 the impact of domestic policies and external factors on the performance of CPO industry in Indonesia. This study was conducted by formulating an econometric model of CPO industry. The model specification was dynamic simultaneous equations and consist of 27 behavioral equations and 12 identities. Model identification was performed by using the order condition criteria, while model was estimated by using 2SLS method. The result show that domestic price of CPO is more responsive to changes in domestic demand quantity of CPO than export demand of CPO. Moreover, the developing of domestic downstream industries of CPO will increase the quantity of demand for CPO, hence it can increase the prices that is received by CPO producers. Domestic policy in the form of restrictions on exports of CPO with determination of the export tax rate of 20 percents can improve the net welfare that is more than the policy of domestic quota increased domestic supply of CPO and the policy of export quota. Increasing domestic supply of CPO gives a negative impact on net welfare. This is because the increasing in domestic supply of CPO has not been supported by the development of downstream industry of CPO besides palm cooking oil industry, thus increasing the domestic supply of CPO will decrease the domestic price of CPO and domestic price of palm cooking oil. In the long run, after the downstream industries of CPO developed rapidly, the government should focus on policy of domestic market obligation DMO for CPO companies, hence they will commit to supply CPO domestic. Finally, the DMO policy will fulfill the needs of downstream industry. Key words : Crude palm oil CPO, domestic policies, change of external factors, Producer’s and Consumer’s Welfare

I. PENDAHULUAN

1.1. Latar Belakang

Sektor pertanian merupakan salah satu tulang punggung perekonomian Indonesia. Hal ini terlihat dari peran sektor pertanian tersebut dalam perekonomian nasional sebagaimana tercermin dari kontribusinya terhadap produk domestik bruto PDB, penyerapan tenaga kerja, dan kontribusinya terhadap perolehan devisa. Sebagai salah satu penggerak utama perekonomian, pembangunan sektor pertanian setidaknya telah mampu memecahkan masalah- masalah sosial ekonomi yang mendasar, khususnya dalam memperluas lapangan kerja, memenuhi kebutuhan dasar masyarakat, pemerataan pendapatan dan mempercepat pengentasan kemiskinan Jiaravanon, 2007. Pembangunan sub sektor perkebunan khususnya kelapa sawit merupakan salah satu bagian penting dalam pembangunan pertanian serta merupakan bagian integral pembangunan nasional. Kelapa sawit merupakan salah satu komoditas perkebunan utama sumber minyak nabati yang berperan penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Selain sebagai sumber pendapatan bagi jutaan keluarga petani, sumber devisa negara, penyedia lapangan kerja, pemicu dari pertumbuhan sentra-sentra ekonomi baru, kelapa sawit juga berperan dalam mendorong tumbuh dan berkembangnya industri hilir berbasis minyak sawit di Indonesia www.deptan.go.id. Indonesia merupakan negara produsen minyak sawit terbesar pertama di dunia sejak tahun 2006 yang sebelumnya dipimpin oleh Malaysia, sedangkan dalam ekspor Indonesia berada pada posisi kedua terbesar setelah Malaysia. Menurut Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan 2009, permintaan domestik terhadap komoditas minyak sawit terus meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Hingga tahun 2010 diperkirakan kebutuhan minyak sawit mencapai lebih dari 4 juta ton per tahun. Sementara itu, di pasar dunia, dalam dua dekade terakhir kebutuhan terhadap minyak sawit atau Crude Palm Oil CPO dan turunannya juga semakin meningkat, menggeser kedudukan minyak nabati lain, seperti minyak kedelai, minyak kelapa, dan minyak bunga matahari. Ada beberapa faktor yang melandasi pemikiran bahwa prospek minyak sawit cukup cerah dalam persaingan dengan minyak nabati lainnya. Faktor pertama yang mendukung daya saing minyak sawit yang tinggi adalah tingkat efisiensi yang tinggi dari minyak tersebut. Pasquali 1993 dan Basiron 2002 menyebutkan bahwa minyak sawit merupakan sumber minyak nabati termurah. Rendahnya harga minyak sawit relatif terhadap minyak lain berkaitan dengan tingginya tingkat efisiensi produksi minyak sawit Simeh, 2004; Susila, 1998. Ong 1992 menyebutkan bahwa produktivitas lahan untuk pengusahaan minyak sawit, minyak kedele, rapeseed, dan kopra adalah masing-masing 3 200, 332, 521, dan 395 kgha setara minyak. Faktor yang lain adalah bahwa sekitar 80 persen dari penduduk dunia, khususnya di negara berkembang masih berpeluang meningkatkan konsumsi per kapita untuk minyak dan lemak, terutama untuk minyak yang harganya murah FAO, 2001. Di samping faktor penduduk, peningkatan konsumsi juga disebabkan oleh efek substitusi dan efek pendapatan Pasquali, 1993. Efek substitusi berpangkal dari daya saing minyak sawit yang tinggi sehingga penduduk di negara berkembang cenderung mensubstitusi minyak yang dikonsumsi dengan minyak yang lebih murah. Efek pendapatan cukup signifikan karena pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat justru terjadi di negara-negara yang sedang berkembang yang tingkat konsumsi minyak dan lemak yang relatif masih rendah yaitu 10.3 kg per kapita FAO, 2001. Faktor berikutnya yang juga akan memperbesar peluang minyak sawit adalah terjadinya pergeseran dalam industri yang menggunakan bahan baku minyak bumi ke bahan yang lebih bersahabat dengan lingkungan yaitu oleokimia yang bahan bakunya adalah minyak sawit Pasquali, 1993. Kecenderungan tersebut sudah tampak di beberapa negara maju seperti Amerika Serikat, Eropa Barat, dan Jepang. Keberhasilan Putaran Uruguay juga akan memperkokoh daya saing minyak sawit. Hal ini disebabkan minyak pesaing seperti minyak kedele dan minyak bunga matahari selama ini mendapat proteksi yang cukup kuat dari negara-negara produsennya, khususnya Amerika Serikat dan negara kelompok Uni Eropa. Negara-negara tersebut menganggap pasar dunia sebagai pasar untuk ’membuang’ kelebihan produksi sehingga pasar minyak menjadi tertekan Pasquali, 1995. Negara berkembang yang umumnya memproduksi minyak sawit diperkirakan akan lebih dapat memanfaatkan perdagangan minyak nabati yang semakin bebas Barton, 1993. Dalam hal peningkatan produksi, 82 persen dari dampak Putaran Uruguay akan dinikmati oleh negara berkembang, sedangkan negara maju hanya sekitar 12 persen Pasquali, 1995. Tingginya permintaan minyak sawit baik lokal maupun dunia sebagai input industri minyak goreng, oleokimia, biodiesel, dan potensi kelapa sawit lainnya yang besar dalam perekonomian merupakan peluang dan mendorong pengembangan perkebunan kelapa sawit di Indonesia. Dalam 32 tahun terakhir luas perkebunan kelapa sawit meningkat pesat lebih dari 36 kali lipat dari 189 ribu hektar pada tahun 1975 menjadi 6 767 ribu hektar pada tahun 2007, dan produksi minyak sawit meningkat lebih dari 44 kali lipat dari 397 ribu ton pada tahun 1975 menjadi 17 665 ribu ton pada tahun 2007 Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan, 2009.

1.2. Perumusan Masalah

Industri minyak sawit membutuhkan input dari perkebunan kelapa sawit dalam bentuk Tandan Buah Segar TBS. Perkebunan kelapa sawit dengan hasilnya yang berupa TBS merupakan hulu dari industri minyak sawit, sedangkan industri hilir utamanya adalah industri minyak goreng sawit. Sejak beberapa tahun terakhir di Indonesia, minyak goreng asal kelapa sawit telah mendominasi pangsa konsumsi minyak goreng yang beberapa tahun lalu dipegang oleh kelapa Rachman dan Subroto, 1999. Keterkaitan pasar atau integrasi pasar dalam industri perkelapasawitan penting untuk diketahui, mengingat peran industri tersebut sangat besar bagi perekonomian negara. Integrasi pasar di antara pasar- pasar domestik pasar TBS, minyak sawit, dan minyak goreng domestik, serta antara pasar-pasar tersebut dengan pasar minyak sawit dunia akan menunjukkan bagaimana terjadinya keterkaitan harga. Penyaluran informasi yang semakin cepat dan tepat akan mengakibatkan pasar-pasar tersebut semakin terintegrasi. Menurut Baffes dan Gardner 2003 pasar dapat dikatakan efisien apabila perubahan harga yang terjadi di pasar dunia langsung diteruskan dan direfleksikan ke pasar dalam negeri. Dengan demikian, pola harga yang ditunjukkan harus sama. Di sisi lain Baffes dan Gardner 2003 menyatakan bahwa segala bentuk campur tangan pemerintah menimbulkan distorsi harga. Adanya kebijakan tersebut akan membuat harga di dalam negeri jauh lebih rendah atau lebih tinggi daripada harga di pasar dunia. Dengan kata lain, adanya kebijakan pemerintah akan mempengaruhi integrasi antara pasar dalam negeri dan dunia. Adapun fluktuasi harga minyak sawit dunia, minyak sawit domestik, dan minyak goreng sawit domestik dapat dilihat pada Gambar 1. 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 20 01 1 20 01 7 20 02 1 20 02 7 20 03 1 20 03 7 20 04 1 20 04 7 20 05 1 20 05 7 20 06 1 20 06 7 Periode Har g a Rp Kg HMSW HMSD HMGSD Keterangan : HMSW = harga minyak sawit dunia, HMSD = harga minyak sawit domestik HMGSD = harga minyak goreng sawit domestik Sumber : Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan, 2007; BPS, 2001-2006; dan Oil World, 2001-2006 Gambar 1. Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Sawit Domestik, Minyak Sawit Dunia, dan Minyak Goreng Sawit Domestik, Tahun 2001-2006 Integrasi harga yang terjadi antara harga minyak sawit dunia dan harga minyak sawit domestik menyebabkan harga minyak sawit domestik sangat ditentukan oleh harga minyak sawit dunia yaitu harga cost insurance and freight CIF di Kualalumpur dan Rotterdam. Harga minyak sawit dunia yang tinggi merupakan daya tarik yang besar bagi pengusaha dalam negeri untuk mengekspor minyak sawit dan menghindarkan diri dari kewajibannya memenuhi kebutuhan dalam negeri. Hal ini akan mengakibatkan berkurangnya pasokan minyak sawit bagi industri minyak goreng sehingga stabilitas harga minyak goreng juga akan terganggu. Selain itu, menurut Menteri Perdagangan, kenaikan harga minyak